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TRENDS 2011 The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate  February 23, 2011 Ross Moore – Chief Economist
Global Commercial Real Estate ,[object Object]
Global Investment Sales
Global Capital Flows
Vacancy Trends
Construction Activity
World’s Top Rents
Pricing,[object Object]
Currency Wars
Food Prices
Rising Energy Prices
Eurozone Sovereign Debt
U.S. Debt Ceiling
Fiscal Drag – State and Local Levels
U.S. Housing Market
MENA – (just added!),[object Object]
Nonfarm Payroll Creation from Onset of Recession (months)
Employment – Private Sector(Month-over-Month Change)
Unemployment Rate(Total and College Graduate)
Small Businesses – a Critical Ingredient ,[object Object]
“Small business is the backbone of the U.S. economy.”
Small businesses lack the financial cushion or global expansion opportunities of large corporations
Household wealth is a key source of financing for new start ups,[object Object]
Job Growth - Top Ten Markets% Change from Dec 2009 to Dec 2010
Job Growth - Bottom Ten Markets% Change from Dec 2009 to Dec 2010
Job Growth by Metropolitan Area – 2010/2014Source:  Moody’s Analytics
Consumer Confidence
Institute for Supply ManagementManufacturing Index
Trade: Exports – Goods($ Million, S.A.)
Inflation: Year/Year Change(%)
Gross Domestic ProductReal – Annual %, SAAR, Forecast – IHS Global Insight
Banks Accumulated Cash($ Trillion)
Consumer Revolving Credit($ Billion, S.A.)
Corporate Profits(Billion $, SAAR)
Leasing Markets ,[object Object]
Lease term gradually getting longer
Very few tenants taking additional space, but……
Tenants still demanding (and getting) free rent and inducements
Rents in most markets still “bottoming out”
Leasing issues - square feet per worker, tenants downsizing – but simultaneously upgrading, different configurations changing space needs,[object Object]
Office Rental Rates(USD per SF)

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Trends 2011

Editor's Notes

  1. *Important* Please choose only one of these first four slides for the title slide of the presentation.
  2. Update from here on