More Related Content Similar to Economic Commercial RE Outlook Similar to Economic Commercial RE Outlook (20) Economic Commercial RE Outlook1. Presentation at the Leadership Summit Chicago, IL -- August 18, 2005 Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., Senior Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Economic and Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Outlook 16. Fed Nervous About Inflation – Forced to Tighten Credit Forecast to 4.00% by Dec. 2005 18. Economic Outlook 2.2 million 2.0 million Job Additions 5.0% 4.4% 10-year Treasury 4.0% 3.2% 3-month Treasury 2.7% 3.0% CPI Inflation 5.1% 5.1% Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.6% GDP 2006 2005 23. Commercial Property Rate of Return (Return = net operating income + capital appreciation) Source: Haver Analytics, NCREIF 44. Commercial Market Outlook Net Absorption (Based on 57 markets) Source: NAR Forecast 262,000 237,000 Multi-Family (units) 29,000 34,000 Retail ( x 1,000 sq ft) 153,000 133,000 Industrial ( x 1,000 sq ft) 56,000 61,000 Office ( x 1,000 sq ft) 2006 2005 45. Commercial Market Outlook Vacancy Rate Source: NAR Forecast 5.2% 6.2% Multi-Family 6.3% 6.3% Retail 9.8% 10.3% Industrial 13.2% 14.1% Office 2006 2005 46. Commercial Market Outlook Rent Growth Source: NAR Forecast 3.0% 2.5% Multi-Family 4.0% 4.4% Retail 1.8% 0.7% Industrial 3.4% 2.3% Office 2006 2005