The document summarizes the need to increase highway capacity in the United States over the next 40 years due to population and economic growth. It discusses three key points: 1) the need for increased highway capacity, 2) the ability of states to build large transportation projects, and 3) ways that Congress can provide long-term funding for highways and transit through programs like TRIP bonds and replacing the gas tax with a sales tax. The chairman calls on Congress to take action to ensure stable funding for transportation programs through 2018.

1. TRB Chairman’s Luncheon
Building Highway Capacity
John Horsley
Executive Director
January 16, 2013

2. TRB Speech like a Texas Longhorn:
“Two points with a lot of bull in between”

3. Three Points
• Need to increase
highway capacity
• Ability of states
to build that
capacity
• Ways Congress
can fund it

4. AASHTO Supports Transit
• In 2012, AASHTO, APTA and others defeated an
attempt to undercut long-term funding for transit
• States provide more funding for transit than the
federal government. In 2012,States $13.6 billion,
Federal $11.7 billion
• AASHTO goal: Double transit ridership in 20
years

5. 1. Need for Highway Capacity:
Backlog over last 50 years
1960 2013
Population 160 million 315 million Doubled
Vehicle Miles 1 trillion 3 trillion Tripled
Heavy Trucks 700,000 2.5 million Quadrupled

6. From 1980 to 2010, Interstate Traffic Increased by 150%,
While Capacity Increased Only 15%: Result - Bottlenecks

7. Highway Capacity Needed over
next 40 years
• As U.S. population grows by 100 million
• As truck freight doubles
• As vehicle miles traveled increases from
3 trillion to 4 trillion or more
You do the math and judge for yourself
whether additional highway capacity
will be needed

8. 2. Ability of States to Build
Highway Capacity Needed
• Three projects
completed over last 5
years
• Three projects to be
completed over next 5
years
• Dispell Myth that
States can’t build big
projects anymore

9. $2.5 Billion Woodrow Wilson Bridge,
Maryland and Virginia DOTs, 2008

10. $685 Million Legacy Parkway,
Utah DOT, 2008

11. $1.9 Billion I-495 Beltway HOT Lanes,
Virginia DOT, Transurban/Fluor PPP

12. $6.4 Billion San Francisco Bay
Bridge Replacement, Caltrans, 2013

13. $2.5 Billion Louisville Bridges,
KYDOT Design-Build, INDOT PPP

14. $2 Billion Detroit, Michigan to Windsor,
Ontario International Bridge

15. Given political will and a way to fund the project,
states can build what the country needs

16. 3. Ways Congress Can Fund Needed
Highway and Transit Investment
• $50 billion TRIP Bond program
• Tax Reform to restore solvency to
Highway Trust Fund by
• replacing cents per gallon excise
tax on fuels with a sales tax

17. $50 Billion TRIP Bond Program,
•
$1 Billion for EveryOregon (D),
Sponsored by Sen. Ron Wyden,
State
and Sen. John Hoeven, North Dakota (R)
• Wyden’s Build America Bonds, authorized 2009
$181 billion issued, 25% for transportation
• From proceeds of TRIP bonds, over 6 years
every state would receive $1 billion in cash
• No debt incurred by states, cost to U.S. Treasury
totally paid for through customs fees

18. Transportation’s Fiscal Cliff
October,2014

19. Tax Reform to Restore Solvency of
Highway Trust Fund
• Replace cents per gallon excise tax with sales
tax on fuels
• Twelve states already levy sales taxes
• Federal Government spends $15 billion more
each year than revenues coming in
• Rate to be set at level that restores solvency to
Highway Trust Fund
• Sales taxes indexed to price of fuel

20. Potential Sales Tax Receipts
(Figures in billions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GASOLINE
RECEIPTS $37.7 $39.6 $40.8 $41.3 $41.9 $42.2
(at 8.4%)
DIESEL RECEIPTS
$14.7 $15.6 $16.3 $16.8 $17.2 $17.6
(at 10.6%)
TOTAL $52.4 $55.2 $57.1 $58.0 $59.1 $59.8
Note: Based on Energy Information Administration forecast of fuel prices. 2013 average sales-weighted gasoline price
for all grades with all federal, state, and local state taxes is $3.29; diesel is $2.70.

21. Stable Future for Highway and
Transit Programs 2013-2018
• Funding program at current levels would require
$320 billion
• Excise taxes are expected to generate
• $236 billion.
• Sales tax revenues would generate about
• $350 billion
• At stake is more than $100 billion

22. Four Questions for Members of
Congress: Left and Right
• Do you want to sustain the program at current levels or
reduce it and cut thousands of jobs?
• Do you want to sustain the program by transferring more
general fund dollars, or make transportation users pay
their own way?
• By shifting to a sales tax, do you want to reduce the
deficit $150 billion over ten years?
• If you could do all this and it would cost drivers less than
$1 dollar per week per car, wouldn’t this make sense?

23. Please Join Forces to Demand that Congress
Provide Long-term Funding for Transportation