A Delphi white paper in collaboration with Ideafarm s. Transportation 2050 presents a radical view of how personal mobility and Mobility as a Service (MaaS) will alter the landscape for transportation in ways that will be as disruptive to the automobile as the automobile was to the horse and buggy.
From electric cars to autonomous vehicles; and from entertainment on-the-go to vehicles that are semi-legal entities, Transportation 2050 provides a future view of mobility that offers a sustainable model for industry and the planet, while changing some of the most fundamental notions we have of the automobile's role, the business model for personal transportation, automobile ownership, and personal mobility.
In this presentation , i'm discussing about the modern means of transportation i-e Communication cars , smart card technology , dedicated short range technology (DSRC) , transport pods and visionary planes ...... & i'm sure it will enhance your knowledge.....
The document discusses green transportation and reducing environmental damage from individual vehicle use. It defines green transportation as walking, cycling, and green vehicles that are electric, solar, wind, or water powered. It then provides details on various electric and hybrid vehicle models, describing their features and benefits, such as being easy on the budget, offering a smooth drive, and allowing users to save on gas and recover money. The purpose is to promote adopting green vehicles by highlighting their environmental and economic advantages over fuel vehicles.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of road transport given on December 11, 2019. It discusses how automated, connected, and shared mobility could impact the transport sector, which accounts for around 15% of EU GDP and 10% of EU jobs. While new technologies may increase energy efficiency, overall energy consumption and emissions could still rise with increased traffic. Addressing transport's complexity will require cooperation across actors and coordination by public authorities. The future likely involves a mix of new and traditional modes, with road transport remaining dominant. Publicly managed platforms may help optimize demand and routing. The document also describes how the JRC research site could serve as a living lab to test future mobility solutions.
The document discusses the challenges facing future mobility and potential solutions. It identifies 7 major challenges: CO2 emissions, end of cheap oil, pollution, congestion, parking, unemployment, and trade deficit. It argues that future mobility should be shared, electric, and small-scale through solutions like vehicle sharing, ride sharing, public transportation, and small efficient vehicles. The most efficient transport modes in cities are said to be buses, scooters, and bikes due to their small physical footprint and weight per person carried. The mobility of the future is envisioned to be more shared, electric, autonomous, and focus on small vehicles like the PodRide concept over large vehicles like the Tesla S.
This document discusses various future transportation technologies and systems, including intelligent transportation systems. It describes technologies like wireless communications, computational technologies, and floating car data that could be applied to intelligent transport. It also outlines unconventional modes of transport like backpack helicopters, jet packs, launch loops, personal rapid transit, rolling highways, moving walkways, and the skyTran system. The goal of these future systems is more efficient, renewable, and smart transportation options.
E-mobility trends in India: Challenges and OpportunitiesIET India
India is the 4th largest automotive industry in the world and is rapidly adopting connectivity and other advanced technologies in the mobility segment. The recent approval from the Government of India for the second phase of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric vehicles (FAME 2) is a clear signal of the country’s positive intent in striding towards green mobility.
IET’s Future of Mobility and Transport Panel has brought together experts from the e-mobility industry in India to discuss the technological trends in the e-mobility space and ways of optimising e-mobility use for everyday life. This document gives a brief summary of the discussions that shed light on the progress of e-mobility in India, pressing challenges that lie ahead and the way forward for e-mobility in the country. Experts also discussed the technology driven trends faced by the Indian market and how these will impact mobility behaviour in India.
In this presentation , i'm discussing about the modern means of transportation i-e Communication cars , smart card technology , dedicated short range technology (DSRC) , transport pods and visionary planes ...... & i'm sure it will enhance your knowledge.....
The document discusses green transportation and reducing environmental damage from individual vehicle use. It defines green transportation as walking, cycling, and green vehicles that are electric, solar, wind, or water powered. It then provides details on various electric and hybrid vehicle models, describing their features and benefits, such as being easy on the budget, offering a smooth drive, and allowing users to save on gas and recover money. The purpose is to promote adopting green vehicles by highlighting their environmental and economic advantages over fuel vehicles.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of road transport given on December 11, 2019. It discusses how automated, connected, and shared mobility could impact the transport sector, which accounts for around 15% of EU GDP and 10% of EU jobs. While new technologies may increase energy efficiency, overall energy consumption and emissions could still rise with increased traffic. Addressing transport's complexity will require cooperation across actors and coordination by public authorities. The future likely involves a mix of new and traditional modes, with road transport remaining dominant. Publicly managed platforms may help optimize demand and routing. The document also describes how the JRC research site could serve as a living lab to test future mobility solutions.
The document discusses the challenges facing future mobility and potential solutions. It identifies 7 major challenges: CO2 emissions, end of cheap oil, pollution, congestion, parking, unemployment, and trade deficit. It argues that future mobility should be shared, electric, and small-scale through solutions like vehicle sharing, ride sharing, public transportation, and small efficient vehicles. The most efficient transport modes in cities are said to be buses, scooters, and bikes due to their small physical footprint and weight per person carried. The mobility of the future is envisioned to be more shared, electric, autonomous, and focus on small vehicles like the PodRide concept over large vehicles like the Tesla S.
This document discusses various future transportation technologies and systems, including intelligent transportation systems. It describes technologies like wireless communications, computational technologies, and floating car data that could be applied to intelligent transport. It also outlines unconventional modes of transport like backpack helicopters, jet packs, launch loops, personal rapid transit, rolling highways, moving walkways, and the skyTran system. The goal of these future systems is more efficient, renewable, and smart transportation options.
E-mobility trends in India: Challenges and OpportunitiesIET India
India is the 4th largest automotive industry in the world and is rapidly adopting connectivity and other advanced technologies in the mobility segment. The recent approval from the Government of India for the second phase of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric vehicles (FAME 2) is a clear signal of the country’s positive intent in striding towards green mobility.
IET’s Future of Mobility and Transport Panel has brought together experts from the e-mobility industry in India to discuss the technological trends in the e-mobility space and ways of optimising e-mobility use for everyday life. This document gives a brief summary of the discussions that shed light on the progress of e-mobility in India, pressing challenges that lie ahead and the way forward for e-mobility in the country. Experts also discussed the technology driven trends faced by the Indian market and how these will impact mobility behaviour in India.
Transportation, Electric Vehicles and the EnvironmentHector Rodriguez
Transportation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Personal vehicles, freight trucks, and airplanes account for over 80% of transportation emissions. Several strategies can help reduce these emissions, including telecommuting to reduce commuting, fleet management through driver training and efficient routing, using more fuel-efficient hybrid and electric vehicles, adopting alternative fuels, and implementing designs that reduce vehicle drag. Larger adoption of these approaches could meaningfully lower the environmental impacts of the transportation sector.
Transportation of the future is coming sooner than we think. Teleportation, movable platforms, driver-less cars, and jet-packs are almost here. This presentation will help you to understand the importance of future transportation.
IoT services are becoming crucial for both automotive enterprises and consumers. As the automotive industry shifts from a product-centric to service-centric business model, the connected car will function as a platform for various services. However, security is the main challenge to overcome as vehicles become more connected. Standards must be developed to securely interface connected vehicles while maintaining privacy. This transition allows automakers to develop continuous customer relationships beyond the point of sale.
shared mobility and various shared mobility modelsWaseemAhmad186
This document defines and describes various models of shared mobility, including mass transit, ridesourcing, ride-splitting, ridesharing, bike/scooter sharing, and carsharing. Mass transit includes buses, metros, and trains that can move thousands of people per hour compared to hundreds in private vehicles. Ridesourcing links riders to for-hire drivers using apps, while ride-splitting allows multiple passengers per vehicle through services like UberPOOL. Ridesharing is similar but drivers are not for-hire. Bike/scooter sharing provides public access to bikes through docked, dockless, or peer-to-peer models. Carsharing gives access to vehicles through hourly or daily rentals with
Artificial Intelligence In The Automotive Industry - M&A Trend AnalysisNetscribes
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is redefining the automotive industry. Organizations in the automotive industry are realizing the need to leverage advanced algorithms and computational structures, innovative testing and validation platforms, integrated cockpit solutions, and 5G network adoption and application deployment for building their next generation mobility services. As a result, mergers and acquisitions focused on acquiring AI capabilities is on the rise in auto sector.
The report provides a detailed analysis of more than 60 AI-focused deals in the auto sector over the last 10 years. Understand the specific AI technologies and capabilities that are high in demand, deal sizes, and the strategies driving those partnerships.
To purchase the full report, write to us at info@netscribes.com
This Presentation describes about the concept of self driving car with uses of different technology. This presentation will be helpful for those who want to know about new technology and will also be helpful for those who want to give seminar in technical college.
This document provides an initial perspective on autonomous vehicles by summarizing existing discussions. It notes that while connected vehicles are increasing, autonomous vehicles that can fully operate without human interaction are less developed. It also distinguishes between connected vehicles, which share information wirelessly, and autonomous vehicles. The document aims to capture current thinking on autonomous vehicles over the next 20-30 years to help guide policy and identify innovation priorities through an open foresight programme.
The document discusses the problem of increasing vehicle emissions contributing to global warming and proposes various solutions. It notes that while electric vehicles seem like a solution, they ultimately rely on power from plants that also emit pollution. Alternative fuels also have issues where production emits pollution canceling out benefits. The best solutions are reducing individual driving needs through biking, walking, public transit or carpooling to limit emissions as much as possible.
The document discusses the potential impacts and implications of automated vehicles (AVs) and shared mobility on transportation systems and urban planning. It describes several issues with the current personal vehicle paradigm such as traffic congestion, pollution, and wasted resources. It then outlines how AVs and shared mobility services could help address these issues by reducing the number of vehicles needed and changing models from personal ownership to shared use. The document presents several scenarios for what transportation might look like in different cities circa 2030 with widespread adoption of AVs and shared mobility."
The document discusses autonomous vehicles and their potential benefits and challenges. It defines autonomous vehicles as vehicles that can travel from one point to another without human supervision. It notes that human error causes over 90% of automobile accidents and that autonomous vehicles could help reduce accidents by taking human error out of driving. The document outlines some of the key technologies used in autonomous vehicles, such as LIDAR, GPS, radar, ultrasonic sensors, video cameras, and a central computer. It discusses companies working on autonomous vehicle technologies like Google, Mercedes Benz, and Tesla. It also discusses some of the pros and cons of autonomous vehicles.
This document summarizes the current status of electric cars. It discusses their advantages such as reduced emissions and cheaper operating costs compared to gas vehicles. However, it also notes challenges like high battery costs, limited driving range, and lack of charging infrastructure. Major automakers are working to develop more affordable electric models to help overcome these issues and meet fuel efficiency standards. The future of electric vehicles depends on continued innovation to address costs and driver acceptance of the technology.
The autonomous vehicle, driverless or self-driving car will be one of the greatest technological developments of the next decade (if not all time).
It will profoundly change life on earth.
For the past century our car-centric culture has shaped infrastructure and ideals, landscape and lifestyle, ethics and enterprise. We rely on the mobility that cars provide us more than ever, but the car’s purpose and meaning changes as the driver fades out.
When the car drives itself, what we do in our cars and with our cars is exponentially different. When the car is intelligent, intuitive and adaptive, our relationship to the car alters. When the car builds itself, environments and economies are reshaped.
This report looks at the players, technologies and trends in the autonomous vehicle space and paints a picture of probable futures for citizens, businesses and marketers.
Buckle up. Bumpy roads ahead.
A presentation by Mr Neil Frost (CEO: iSAHA International), at the Transport Forum SIG: "Sustainable Transport" on 6 August 2015 hosted by University of Johannesburg's Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (Africa), or ITLS (Africa). The theme of the presentation was: "Sustainable Integrated Transport".
Presentation of sustainable and green transport modes: Walking, Bike, Car, Carpool, Taxi, Bus, Tram. Fuel types according to environment friendly classes - from conventional fuels, bio fuels, electric and hybrid ones. Types of vehicle with various ecology footprint - like Conventional internal combustion engine, Bio-fuel, All-electric, Hydrogen fuel cell, Hybrid electric.
Illustratory data charts with green technology statistics: Transportation gasoline usage per 100 km per passenger; Green Transportation pyramid and Fuel economy
IoT in Automobile industry by Shri Kaushal Jani, Project Head, Amiraj College of Engg & Technology, Ahmedabad
presented at All India Seminar on #IoT - Trends that affect Lives at The Institution of Engineers (I) Gujarat State Center
The document presents information on driverless cars, including a brief history of autonomous vehicles from 1969. It discusses how driverless cars use sensors and software to navigate without human input, and considers issues like safety, economic impacts, and how autonomous technology could affect transportation. While driverless cars may reduce accidents and open up new mobility options, challenges include high costs, job disruption, and ensuring computer systems don't cause crashes. The conclusion discusses both benefits of and social barriers to autonomous vehicle adoption.
This document contains multiple graphics and passages comparing electric vehicles to gas vehicles. Some key points made include:
- Electric vehicles have lower fueling costs than gas vehicles but take longer to refuel. Their range is also shorter.
- Over the long term, the total costs of owning an electric vehicle are much lower than a gas vehicle due to fuel and maintenance costs.
- Electric vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions, whereas gas vehicles produce greenhouse gases and air pollution. The emissions from electric vehicles depend on how the electricity is generated.
- Maintenance costs are typically lower for electric vehicles since they don't require oil changes, tune-ups, and have fewer moving parts. However, battery replacement adds to the cost.
Autonomous Vehicles: Technologies, Economics, and OpportunitiesJeffrey Funk
National University of Singapore students presented on autonomous vehicles, including their evolution, enabling technologies like sensors and connectivity, infrastructure needs, and entrepreneurial opportunities. Key points discussed include autonomous vehicles producing large amounts of data, 5G enabling low latency required for applications, dedicated lanes and platooning potentially increasing road capacity, and autonomous vehicles reducing fuel costs, traffic, and accidents while creating new business models.
This document discusses the challenges and solutions related to electric mobility and power utilities. It notes that 93% of transportation energy comes from fossil fuels that will be depleted by 2050. Electric vehicles can help address this by providing an alternative with no emissions or pollution. However, electric mobility faces challenges related to battery technology, vehicle range, and grid infrastructure. Smart grids and vehicle-grid integration can help optimize electric vehicle charging. Future developments aim to improve batteries and charging solutions to make electric mobility more viable and sustainable.
No Hands: The Autonomous Future of TruckingCognizant
The impacts of autonomous trucking will reverberate far beyond the trucking industry. As members of the workforce, public policy proponents, technology strategists and business leaders grapple with the technological, economic and cultural fall-out of self-driving trucks, what happens next could serve as a template for other fields influenced by AI.
Disruptive Trends That Will Transform The Automotive IndustryStradablog
Technology-driven trends will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships, and drive transformational change.
Transportation, Electric Vehicles and the EnvironmentHector Rodriguez
Transportation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Personal vehicles, freight trucks, and airplanes account for over 80% of transportation emissions. Several strategies can help reduce these emissions, including telecommuting to reduce commuting, fleet management through driver training and efficient routing, using more fuel-efficient hybrid and electric vehicles, adopting alternative fuels, and implementing designs that reduce vehicle drag. Larger adoption of these approaches could meaningfully lower the environmental impacts of the transportation sector.
Transportation of the future is coming sooner than we think. Teleportation, movable platforms, driver-less cars, and jet-packs are almost here. This presentation will help you to understand the importance of future transportation.
IoT services are becoming crucial for both automotive enterprises and consumers. As the automotive industry shifts from a product-centric to service-centric business model, the connected car will function as a platform for various services. However, security is the main challenge to overcome as vehicles become more connected. Standards must be developed to securely interface connected vehicles while maintaining privacy. This transition allows automakers to develop continuous customer relationships beyond the point of sale.
shared mobility and various shared mobility modelsWaseemAhmad186
This document defines and describes various models of shared mobility, including mass transit, ridesourcing, ride-splitting, ridesharing, bike/scooter sharing, and carsharing. Mass transit includes buses, metros, and trains that can move thousands of people per hour compared to hundreds in private vehicles. Ridesourcing links riders to for-hire drivers using apps, while ride-splitting allows multiple passengers per vehicle through services like UberPOOL. Ridesharing is similar but drivers are not for-hire. Bike/scooter sharing provides public access to bikes through docked, dockless, or peer-to-peer models. Carsharing gives access to vehicles through hourly or daily rentals with
Artificial Intelligence In The Automotive Industry - M&A Trend AnalysisNetscribes
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is redefining the automotive industry. Organizations in the automotive industry are realizing the need to leverage advanced algorithms and computational structures, innovative testing and validation platforms, integrated cockpit solutions, and 5G network adoption and application deployment for building their next generation mobility services. As a result, mergers and acquisitions focused on acquiring AI capabilities is on the rise in auto sector.
The report provides a detailed analysis of more than 60 AI-focused deals in the auto sector over the last 10 years. Understand the specific AI technologies and capabilities that are high in demand, deal sizes, and the strategies driving those partnerships.
To purchase the full report, write to us at info@netscribes.com
This Presentation describes about the concept of self driving car with uses of different technology. This presentation will be helpful for those who want to know about new technology and will also be helpful for those who want to give seminar in technical college.
This document provides an initial perspective on autonomous vehicles by summarizing existing discussions. It notes that while connected vehicles are increasing, autonomous vehicles that can fully operate without human interaction are less developed. It also distinguishes between connected vehicles, which share information wirelessly, and autonomous vehicles. The document aims to capture current thinking on autonomous vehicles over the next 20-30 years to help guide policy and identify innovation priorities through an open foresight programme.
The document discusses the problem of increasing vehicle emissions contributing to global warming and proposes various solutions. It notes that while electric vehicles seem like a solution, they ultimately rely on power from plants that also emit pollution. Alternative fuels also have issues where production emits pollution canceling out benefits. The best solutions are reducing individual driving needs through biking, walking, public transit or carpooling to limit emissions as much as possible.
The document discusses the potential impacts and implications of automated vehicles (AVs) and shared mobility on transportation systems and urban planning. It describes several issues with the current personal vehicle paradigm such as traffic congestion, pollution, and wasted resources. It then outlines how AVs and shared mobility services could help address these issues by reducing the number of vehicles needed and changing models from personal ownership to shared use. The document presents several scenarios for what transportation might look like in different cities circa 2030 with widespread adoption of AVs and shared mobility."
The document discusses autonomous vehicles and their potential benefits and challenges. It defines autonomous vehicles as vehicles that can travel from one point to another without human supervision. It notes that human error causes over 90% of automobile accidents and that autonomous vehicles could help reduce accidents by taking human error out of driving. The document outlines some of the key technologies used in autonomous vehicles, such as LIDAR, GPS, radar, ultrasonic sensors, video cameras, and a central computer. It discusses companies working on autonomous vehicle technologies like Google, Mercedes Benz, and Tesla. It also discusses some of the pros and cons of autonomous vehicles.
This document summarizes the current status of electric cars. It discusses their advantages such as reduced emissions and cheaper operating costs compared to gas vehicles. However, it also notes challenges like high battery costs, limited driving range, and lack of charging infrastructure. Major automakers are working to develop more affordable electric models to help overcome these issues and meet fuel efficiency standards. The future of electric vehicles depends on continued innovation to address costs and driver acceptance of the technology.
The autonomous vehicle, driverless or self-driving car will be one of the greatest technological developments of the next decade (if not all time).
It will profoundly change life on earth.
For the past century our car-centric culture has shaped infrastructure and ideals, landscape and lifestyle, ethics and enterprise. We rely on the mobility that cars provide us more than ever, but the car’s purpose and meaning changes as the driver fades out.
When the car drives itself, what we do in our cars and with our cars is exponentially different. When the car is intelligent, intuitive and adaptive, our relationship to the car alters. When the car builds itself, environments and economies are reshaped.
This report looks at the players, technologies and trends in the autonomous vehicle space and paints a picture of probable futures for citizens, businesses and marketers.
Buckle up. Bumpy roads ahead.
A presentation by Mr Neil Frost (CEO: iSAHA International), at the Transport Forum SIG: "Sustainable Transport" on 6 August 2015 hosted by University of Johannesburg's Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (Africa), or ITLS (Africa). The theme of the presentation was: "Sustainable Integrated Transport".
Presentation of sustainable and green transport modes: Walking, Bike, Car, Carpool, Taxi, Bus, Tram. Fuel types according to environment friendly classes - from conventional fuels, bio fuels, electric and hybrid ones. Types of vehicle with various ecology footprint - like Conventional internal combustion engine, Bio-fuel, All-electric, Hydrogen fuel cell, Hybrid electric.
Illustratory data charts with green technology statistics: Transportation gasoline usage per 100 km per passenger; Green Transportation pyramid and Fuel economy
IoT in Automobile industry by Shri Kaushal Jani, Project Head, Amiraj College of Engg & Technology, Ahmedabad
presented at All India Seminar on #IoT - Trends that affect Lives at The Institution of Engineers (I) Gujarat State Center
The document presents information on driverless cars, including a brief history of autonomous vehicles from 1969. It discusses how driverless cars use sensors and software to navigate without human input, and considers issues like safety, economic impacts, and how autonomous technology could affect transportation. While driverless cars may reduce accidents and open up new mobility options, challenges include high costs, job disruption, and ensuring computer systems don't cause crashes. The conclusion discusses both benefits of and social barriers to autonomous vehicle adoption.
This document contains multiple graphics and passages comparing electric vehicles to gas vehicles. Some key points made include:
- Electric vehicles have lower fueling costs than gas vehicles but take longer to refuel. Their range is also shorter.
- Over the long term, the total costs of owning an electric vehicle are much lower than a gas vehicle due to fuel and maintenance costs.
- Electric vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions, whereas gas vehicles produce greenhouse gases and air pollution. The emissions from electric vehicles depend on how the electricity is generated.
- Maintenance costs are typically lower for electric vehicles since they don't require oil changes, tune-ups, and have fewer moving parts. However, battery replacement adds to the cost.
Autonomous Vehicles: Technologies, Economics, and OpportunitiesJeffrey Funk
National University of Singapore students presented on autonomous vehicles, including their evolution, enabling technologies like sensors and connectivity, infrastructure needs, and entrepreneurial opportunities. Key points discussed include autonomous vehicles producing large amounts of data, 5G enabling low latency required for applications, dedicated lanes and platooning potentially increasing road capacity, and autonomous vehicles reducing fuel costs, traffic, and accidents while creating new business models.
This document discusses the challenges and solutions related to electric mobility and power utilities. It notes that 93% of transportation energy comes from fossil fuels that will be depleted by 2050. Electric vehicles can help address this by providing an alternative with no emissions or pollution. However, electric mobility faces challenges related to battery technology, vehicle range, and grid infrastructure. Smart grids and vehicle-grid integration can help optimize electric vehicle charging. Future developments aim to improve batteries and charging solutions to make electric mobility more viable and sustainable.
No Hands: The Autonomous Future of TruckingCognizant
The impacts of autonomous trucking will reverberate far beyond the trucking industry. As members of the workforce, public policy proponents, technology strategists and business leaders grapple with the technological, economic and cultural fall-out of self-driving trucks, what happens next could serve as a template for other fields influenced by AI.
Disruptive Trends That Will Transform The Automotive IndustryStradablog
Technology-driven trends will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships, and drive transformational change.
The end of driving grush niles intertraffic 2015Bern Grush
The world waits in anticipation for the first self-driving cars. But after all the impossible pieces are sorted and the wonder dissipates, what will the world be like? And will there be some unintended consequences that belie optimistic predictions of today?
Allianz Risk Pulse: The Future of Individual MobilityOpen Knowledge
The document discusses trends that are changing mobility, including rising environmental consciousness, urbanization, and digitalization. New mobility concepts like driverless cars and car sharing have the potential to revolutionize transportation. Regulations and consumer attitudes are also shifting, with people showing less interest in car ownership and more interest in sustainability. Technological innovations will further enable new mobility solutions and business models. The future of mobility is uncertain but will be defined by interconnected changes in technology, consumer behavior, and policy.
Driverless cars have the potential to transform transportation by improving safety, reducing emissions and congestion, and increasing mobility. The UK is positioned to become a leader in this technology by establishing test programs in several cities and reviewing regulations in 2017. Fully autonomous vehicles could be on roads by 2020-2025, leading to major changes like decreased car ownership and the rise of driverless ride-sharing services. While this transition provides economic opportunities, it also threatens some existing jobs like professional drivers and presents new cybersecurity risks from hackers targeting connected vehicles.
Get Automotive Smart - Automotive Futuresemmersons1
The automotive industry is ramping up to a period of transformation. But what does the future look like, and what do the predicted changes mean for existing players?
This document summarizes a Swedish study on the future of automobile usage in an information society. It uses scenarios from 1990-2040 to predict trends. The key findings are:
1) Information technologies will not replace travel, only replace paper information carried. Increasingly dispersed living arrangements will keep car usage high overall.
2) New technologies like microelectronics will improve car performance and road information systems to enhance traffic flow and safety.
3) A combination of strong information networks and transportation could enable more dispersed, decentralized living and work patterns that counteract urbanization trends.
Study HERE SBD - How autonomous vehicles could relieve or worsen traffic cong...Ludovic Privat
The utopian vision of autonomous cars and a world where traffic issues are null is a generation away, according to this whitepaper from HERE and SBD research, which also asserts that advancement in autonomous vehicles will be gridlocked without the cooperation of all stakeholders.
Grush kiss your bus goodbye with cover published versionBern Grush
As Bern Grush’s relationship with urban road transit sours, he reveals why he’s falling in love with driverless electric vehicles.
Loved by many planners, the urban transit bus is outsized, ungainly, disdained, and underused. Its function is critical for cities but its physical and network form is increasingly undesirable. Fortunately, it won’t be needed much longer…
Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive worldStradablog
Autonomous vehicles will likely have a profound impact on society and the economy in three eras:
1) Before consumer availability, industrial fleets will lead adoption in mining, farming, and commercial transport. Car makers will define strategic stances on autonomous vehicle technology and development. New mobility models like car sharing will emerge.
2) In early consumer adoption, car maintenance will shift to original equipment manufacturers and insurers will cover manufacturers for technical failures rather than individual drivers. Supply chains will be optimized.
3) When autonomous vehicles are mainstream, drivers will have 50 extra minutes per day. Parking needs will decrease by over 5 billion square meters. Accident rates could drop 90%, saving over $190 billion annually
The document discusses the future of mobility, focusing on four key pillars: shared transportation, multimodal transportation, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles. It notes that new technologies and business models are disrupting the global transportation industry, which would be the third largest economy in the world if classified as a country. The future of mobility will involve technology-enabled, shared, multimodal, electric, and autonomous transportation options.
Term Paper on Self Driving Cars Impact in EconomyMehnaz Maharin
The document discusses the microeconomic impacts of self-driving cars. It notes that self-driving cars could eliminate many driving jobs but also create new transportation and technical jobs. While driver jobs may decline, new jobs in areas like fleet dispatching and vehicle repair are expected to emerge. The document also examines effects on supply/demand, consumers' willingness to pay, and policies to ensure job security during the transition to autonomous vehicles.
Future of mobility for external author lucio ribeiroLucio Ribeiro
The document discusses several trends impacting the automotive industry, including the shift toward connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles. While many predicted personal car ownership would decline with these changes, the number of vehicles has actually increased in major cities. Car sharing services have also struggled, with some folding operations. Electric vehicle adoption remains low at around 1% of new car sales. The future of mobility remains uncertain, with factors like infrastructure, consumer preferences and economic conditions influencing how the industry evolves. The summary discusses trends but notes uncertainty remains around how quickly changes will be adopted.
This document discusses the rise of car sharing companies and autonomous vehicles. It notes that cars sit unused for most of the time and that autonomous vehicles could help address safety issues from human error in driving. Key companies developing autonomous vehicle technology are mentioned, such as Google, Tesla, Uber and automakers. Challenges and opportunities from autonomous vehicles are discussed, including their potential impacts on transportation systems and job markets. The document recommends that governments support autonomous vehicles through legislation and infrastructure to promote sustainability and accessibility of transportation.
This document discusses the rise of car sharing companies and autonomous vehicles. It begins by looking at companies like Uber and how they are changing car ownership models. It then examines autonomous vehicle research by companies like Google, Tesla, and automakers. Key risks and barriers to autonomous vehicles are outlined, such as weather challenges and legal issues. The document concludes by recommending government support for autonomous vehicles and mobility sharing to help create a more sustainable transportation system.
This document discusses the rise of car sharing companies and autonomous vehicles. It notes that cars sit unused for most of the time and that autonomous vehicles could help address safety issues from human error in driving. Key companies developing autonomous vehicle technology are mentioned, such as Google, Tesla, Uber and automakers. Challenges and opportunities from autonomous vehicles are discussed, including their potential impacts on transportation systems and job markets. The document recommends that governments support autonomous vehicles through legislation and infrastructure to promote sustainability and accessibility of transportation.
Future of autonomous vehicles final report ppt - may 2020Future Agenda
The Future of Autonomous Vehicles
The dream of self-driving vehicles has been a long time coming. It is however now within reach and the pressure is on the deliver on the vision. With sustained technology development, increased investment and raising public awareness, there is enormous interest in the imminent mainstream use of autonomous vehicles on the streets.
Although approaches vary from around the world, policy makers and urban planners in leading locations are now seeking to collaborate more with manufacturers, mobility providers, tech suppliers, logistics operators in order to align regulation for testing and mass deployment. And it goes both ways.
The investments being made in autonomy have rapidly shifted from millions to billions, so unsurprisingly those public and private organisations that are providing the funds are keen to ensure that the ROI is credible. There is much to play for and, although there has been substantial progress over recent years, significant questions on safety, social impact, business models and performance are still unanswered.
The Future of Autonomous Vehicles project was undertaken to canvas the views of a wide range of experts from around the world in order to create a clearer, informed global perspective of how autonomy will evolve over the next decade. Beginning with a discussion with government officials just outside Shanghai in July 2018 and ending with leaders from across the US autonomous vehicle community in the hills above Silicon Valley in February of 2020, this project has covered a lot of ground. In all, eight workshops and six additional discussions have engaged with hundreds of different opinions, shared perspectives and built considered future pathways.
This presentation of the final report is a synthesis of many voices and opinions on the likely future of autonomous vehicles. We hope that is useful.
Full project details are available on the dedicated mini site www.futureautonomous.org
Automotive Revolution Perspective Towards 2030Stradablog
McKinsey & Company’s comprehensive research into the disruptions most likely to affect the automotive space through 2030 identifies eight key trends that could trigger an industry revolution. From innovative mobility plays to new industry entrants, these trends signal a changing of the guard that could shatter current business models and ways of doing things.
At iomob we seek to transform urban mobility from its current fragmented state towards a decentralised internet of mobility marketplace. This white paper seeks to explore emerging trends and future directions towards more seamless access to public and private mobility services.
Similar to Transportation 2050 | The future of personal mobility (20)
Design Thinking Case Studies | In Their Own Words | IdeafarmsIdeafarms
Examples of how companies like Intuit, Citrix and others have used the human-centric approach of #DesignThinking for
- Testing and validating Business Models
- Employee Engagement
- Product Innovation and Development
- Internal Efficiencies
- Boosting Revenues
More Examples -
1. How Kaiser Solved the Problem of Hospital “Ghost Towns”
https://www.fastcodesign.com/90150616/how-kaiser-solved-the-problem-of-hospital-ghost-towns
2. How Pepsico, Godrej and Marico are 'designed to succeed
https://brandequity.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/business-of-brands/how-pepsico-godrej-and-marico-are-designed-to-succeed/48719157
3. How Design Thinking Transformed Airbnb from a Failing Startup to a Billion Dollar Business
http://firstround.com/review/How-design-thinking-transformed-Airbnb-from-failing-startup-to-billion-dollar-business/
4. Starbucks, “The Third Place”, and Creating the Ultimate Customer Experience
https://www.fastcompany.com/887990/starbucks-third-place-and-creating-ultimate-customer-experience
Ideafarms offers various Design Thinking workshops, masterclasses, and bootcamps aimed at helping organizations shift their culture and mindset to be more user-centric. Their offerings range from short introductory workshops to longer-term strategic interventions that facilitate Design Thinking projects and help build an internal Design Thinking center of excellence. The goal is to systematically reduce Ideafarms' involvement over time as organizations develop internal Design Thinking capabilities.
Design thinking is a way for non-designers to approach problem solving the design way.
Design Thinking has captured the imagination of everyone, with everyone adding their thoughts. Where do I start, you ask? We have carefully selected some of the best articles available on the internet for you to get started.
Data is a crucial component of statistical analysis. Analysis of bad data can lead to potentially devastating consequences if such analysis is used for decision-making purposes. Identifying the problems inherent in the way data is captured, is one step towards improving data quality.
Role of Mobile technology in Disease SurveillanceIdeafarms
Data is an integral part of disease surveillance. Mobile technology can simplify and hasten the process of data capture, all the while, ensuring the accuracy and integrity of data.
As presented to the delegates of FBSA, Republic of Iraq
at the 124A Bilateral Training Programme of
International Centre for Information Systems and Audit (iCISA)
With the rise of smartphone usage, more and more businesses are looking towards exploiting the medium. Ideafarms is an early player in developing platforms that leverage native features of smart devices for not only commercial purposes, but also in for the social sector. Here is an overview of applications of our platform.
This document discusses responsive web design from design, usability, and business perspectives. It defines responsive design as adjusting content according to the viewing device rather than just resizing content. The document outlines how responsive design improves user experience and visibility on search engines by optimizing content hierarchy and performance for different screens. It argues that responsive design benefits businesses by increasing visibility, conversion rates, and reducing maintenance costs by supporting all devices with a single adaptive site.
This document appears to be a presentation about the transition from notebooks to tablets. It discusses how tablets offer mobility like notebooks but with touch interfaces that allow pinching, zooming and rotating. Applications for tablets discussed include enterprise collaboration, instant ordering, field service apps and mobile payments. The presentation argues tablets can reduce costs and improve efficiency for businesses while helping them adopt new mobile technologies.
This document appears to be a presentation about the transition from notebooks to tablets. It discusses how tablets offer mobility like notebooks but with touch interfaces that allow pinching, zooming and rotating. Applications for tablets discussed include enterprise collaboration, instant ordering, rugged tablets for field work, and mobile payments. The presentation argues the business case for going mobile is to reduce costs, improve efficiency and because mobile technology adoption is increasing.
A compilation of quotes and dimensions of the misunderstood subject of Mentoring. Is a Mentor a boss, a guru, a friend, a sounding board, ...? A very simple guide to the subject of mentoring.
5th LF Energy Power Grid Model Meet-up SlidesDanBrown980551
5th Power Grid Model Meet-up
It is with great pleasure that we extend to you an invitation to the 5th Power Grid Model Meet-up, scheduled for 6th June 2024. This event will adopt a hybrid format, allowing participants to join us either through an online Mircosoft Teams session or in person at TU/e located at Den Dolech 2, Eindhoven, Netherlands. The meet-up will be hosted by Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), a research university specializing in engineering science & technology.
Power Grid Model
The global energy transition is placing new and unprecedented demands on Distribution System Operators (DSOs). Alongside upgrades to grid capacity, processes such as digitization, capacity optimization, and congestion management are becoming vital for delivering reliable services.
Power Grid Model is an open source project from Linux Foundation Energy and provides a calculation engine that is increasingly essential for DSOs. It offers a standards-based foundation enabling real-time power systems analysis, simulations of electrical power grids, and sophisticated what-if analysis. In addition, it enables in-depth studies and analysis of the electrical power grid’s behavior and performance. This comprehensive model incorporates essential factors such as power generation capacity, electrical losses, voltage levels, power flows, and system stability.
Power Grid Model is currently being applied in a wide variety of use cases, including grid planning, expansion, reliability, and congestion studies. It can also help in analyzing the impact of renewable energy integration, assessing the effects of disturbances or faults, and developing strategies for grid control and optimization.
What to expect
For the upcoming meetup we are organizing, we have an exciting lineup of activities planned:
-Insightful presentations covering two practical applications of the Power Grid Model.
-An update on the latest advancements in Power Grid -Model technology during the first and second quarters of 2024.
-An interactive brainstorming session to discuss and propose new feature requests.
-An opportunity to connect with fellow Power Grid Model enthusiasts and users.
How information systems are built or acquired puts information, which is what they should be about, in a secondary place. Our language adapted accordingly, and we no longer talk about information systems but applications. Applications evolved in a way to break data into diverse fragments, tightly coupled with applications and expensive to integrate. The result is technical debt, which is re-paid by taking even bigger "loans", resulting in an ever-increasing technical debt. Software engineering and procurement practices work in sync with market forces to maintain this trend. This talk demonstrates how natural this situation is. The question is: can something be done to reverse the trend?
HCL Notes and Domino License Cost Reduction in the World of DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-and-domino-license-cost-reduction-in-the-world-of-dlau/
The introduction of DLAU and the CCB & CCX licensing model caused quite a stir in the HCL community. As a Notes and Domino customer, you may have faced challenges with unexpected user counts and license costs. You probably have questions on how this new licensing approach works and how to benefit from it. Most importantly, you likely have budget constraints and want to save money where possible. Don’t worry, we can help with all of this!
We’ll show you how to fix common misconfigurations that cause higher-than-expected user counts, and how to identify accounts which you can deactivate to save money. There are also frequent patterns that can cause unnecessary cost, like using a person document instead of a mail-in for shared mailboxes. We’ll provide examples and solutions for those as well. And naturally we’ll explain the new licensing model.
Join HCL Ambassador Marc Thomas in this webinar with a special guest appearance from Franz Walder. It will give you the tools and know-how to stay on top of what is going on with Domino licensing. You will be able lower your cost through an optimized configuration and keep it low going forward.
These topics will be covered
- Reducing license cost by finding and fixing misconfigurations and superfluous accounts
- How do CCB and CCX licenses really work?
- Understanding the DLAU tool and how to best utilize it
- Tips for common problem areas, like team mailboxes, functional/test users, etc
- Practical examples and best practices to implement right away
Monitoring and Managing Anomaly Detection on OpenShift.pdfTosin Akinosho
Monitoring and Managing Anomaly Detection on OpenShift
Overview
Dive into the world of anomaly detection on edge devices with our comprehensive hands-on tutorial. This SlideShare presentation will guide you through the entire process, from data collection and model training to edge deployment and real-time monitoring. Perfect for those looking to implement robust anomaly detection systems on resource-constrained IoT/edge devices.
Key Topics Covered
1. Introduction to Anomaly Detection
- Understand the fundamentals of anomaly detection and its importance in identifying unusual behavior or failures in systems.
2. Understanding Edge (IoT)
- Learn about edge computing and IoT, and how they enable real-time data processing and decision-making at the source.
3. What is ArgoCD?
- Discover ArgoCD, a declarative, GitOps continuous delivery tool for Kubernetes, and its role in deploying applications on edge devices.
4. Deployment Using ArgoCD for Edge Devices
- Step-by-step guide on deploying anomaly detection models on edge devices using ArgoCD.
5. Introduction to Apache Kafka and S3
- Explore Apache Kafka for real-time data streaming and Amazon S3 for scalable storage solutions.
6. Viewing Kafka Messages in the Data Lake
- Learn how to view and analyze Kafka messages stored in a data lake for better insights.
7. What is Prometheus?
- Get to know Prometheus, an open-source monitoring and alerting toolkit, and its application in monitoring edge devices.
8. Monitoring Application Metrics with Prometheus
- Detailed instructions on setting up Prometheus to monitor the performance and health of your anomaly detection system.
9. What is Camel K?
- Introduction to Camel K, a lightweight integration framework built on Apache Camel, designed for Kubernetes.
10. Configuring Camel K Integrations for Data Pipelines
- Learn how to configure Camel K for seamless data pipeline integrations in your anomaly detection workflow.
11. What is a Jupyter Notebook?
- Overview of Jupyter Notebooks, an open-source web application for creating and sharing documents with live code, equations, visualizations, and narrative text.
12. Jupyter Notebooks with Code Examples
- Hands-on examples and code snippets in Jupyter Notebooks to help you implement and test anomaly detection models.
Programming Foundation Models with DSPy - Meetup SlidesZilliz
Prompting language models is hard, while programming language models is easy. In this talk, I will discuss the state-of-the-art framework DSPy for programming foundation models with its powerful optimizers and runtime constraint system.
Digital Banking in the Cloud: How Citizens Bank Unlocked Their MainframePrecisely
Inconsistent user experience and siloed data, high costs, and changing customer expectations – Citizens Bank was experiencing these challenges while it was attempting to deliver a superior digital banking experience for its clients. Its core banking applications run on the mainframe and Citizens was using legacy utilities to get the critical mainframe data to feed customer-facing channels, like call centers, web, and mobile. Ultimately, this led to higher operating costs (MIPS), delayed response times, and longer time to market.
Ever-changing customer expectations demand more modern digital experiences, and the bank needed to find a solution that could provide real-time data to its customer channels with low latency and operating costs. Join this session to learn how Citizens is leveraging Precisely to replicate mainframe data to its customer channels and deliver on their “modern digital bank” experiences.
Dandelion Hashtable: beyond billion requests per second on a commodity serverAntonios Katsarakis
This slide deck presents DLHT, a concurrent in-memory hashtable. Despite efforts to optimize hashtables, that go as far as sacrificing core functionality, state-of-the-art designs still incur multiple memory accesses per request and block request processing in three cases. First, most hashtables block while waiting for data to be retrieved from memory. Second, open-addressing designs, which represent the current state-of-the-art, either cannot free index slots on deletes or must block all requests to do so. Third, index resizes block every request until all objects are copied to the new index. Defying folklore wisdom, DLHT forgoes open-addressing and adopts a fully-featured and memory-aware closed-addressing design based on bounded cache-line-chaining. This design offers lock-free index operations and deletes that free slots instantly, (2) completes most requests with a single memory access, (3) utilizes software prefetching to hide memory latencies, and (4) employs a novel non-blocking and parallel resizing. In a commodity server and a memory-resident workload, DLHT surpasses 1.6B requests per second and provides 3.5x (12x) the throughput of the state-of-the-art closed-addressing (open-addressing) resizable hashtable on Gets (Deletes).
Taking AI to the Next Level in Manufacturing.pdfssuserfac0301
Read Taking AI to the Next Level in Manufacturing to gain insights on AI adoption in the manufacturing industry, such as:
1. How quickly AI is being implemented in manufacturing.
2. Which barriers stand in the way of AI adoption.
3. How data quality and governance form the backbone of AI.
4. Organizational processes and structures that may inhibit effective AI adoption.
6. Ideas and approaches to help build your organization's AI strategy.
Northern Engraving | Nameplate Manufacturing Process - 2024Northern Engraving
Manufacturing custom quality metal nameplates and badges involves several standard operations. Processes include sheet prep, lithography, screening, coating, punch press and inspection. All decoration is completed in the flat sheet with adhesive and tooling operations following. The possibilities for creating unique durable nameplates are endless. How will you create your brand identity? We can help!
Generating privacy-protected synthetic data using Secludy and MilvusZilliz
During this demo, the founders of Secludy will demonstrate how their system utilizes Milvus to store and manipulate embeddings for generating privacy-protected synthetic data. Their approach not only maintains the confidentiality of the original data but also enhances the utility and scalability of LLMs under privacy constraints. Attendees, including machine learning engineers, data scientists, and data managers, will witness first-hand how Secludy's integration with Milvus empowers organizations to harness the power of LLMs securely and efficiently.
What is an RPA CoE? Session 1 – CoE VisionDianaGray10
In the first session, we will review the organization's vision and how this has an impact on the COE Structure.
Topics covered:
• The role of a steering committee
• How do the organization’s priorities determine CoE Structure?
Speaker:
Chris Bolin, Senior Intelligent Automation Architect Anika Systems
zkStudyClub - LatticeFold: A Lattice-based Folding Scheme and its Application...Alex Pruden
Folding is a recent technique for building efficient recursive SNARKs. Several elegant folding protocols have been proposed, such as Nova, Supernova, Hypernova, Protostar, and others. However, all of them rely on an additively homomorphic commitment scheme based on discrete log, and are therefore not post-quantum secure. In this work we present LatticeFold, the first lattice-based folding protocol based on the Module SIS problem. This folding protocol naturally leads to an efficient recursive lattice-based SNARK and an efficient PCD scheme. LatticeFold supports folding low-degree relations, such as R1CS, as well as high-degree relations, such as CCS. The key challenge is to construct a secure folding protocol that works with the Ajtai commitment scheme. The difficulty, is ensuring that extracted witnesses are low norm through many rounds of folding. We present a novel technique using the sumcheck protocol to ensure that extracted witnesses are always low norm no matter how many rounds of folding are used. Our evaluation of the final proof system suggests that it is as performant as Hypernova, while providing post-quantum security.
Paper Link: https://eprint.iacr.org/2024/257
How to Interpret Trends in the Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart.pdfChart Kalyan
A Mix Chart displays historical data of numbers in a graphical or tabular form. The Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart specifically shows the results of a sequence of numbers over different periods.
HCL Notes und Domino Lizenzkostenreduzierung in der Welt von DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-und-domino-lizenzkostenreduzierung-in-der-welt-von-dlau/
DLAU und die Lizenzen nach dem CCB- und CCX-Modell sind für viele in der HCL-Community seit letztem Jahr ein heißes Thema. Als Notes- oder Domino-Kunde haben Sie vielleicht mit unerwartet hohen Benutzerzahlen und Lizenzgebühren zu kämpfen. Sie fragen sich vielleicht, wie diese neue Art der Lizenzierung funktioniert und welchen Nutzen sie Ihnen bringt. Vor allem wollen Sie sicherlich Ihr Budget einhalten und Kosten sparen, wo immer möglich. Das verstehen wir und wir möchten Ihnen dabei helfen!
Wir erklären Ihnen, wie Sie häufige Konfigurationsprobleme lösen können, die dazu führen können, dass mehr Benutzer gezählt werden als nötig, und wie Sie überflüssige oder ungenutzte Konten identifizieren und entfernen können, um Geld zu sparen. Es gibt auch einige Ansätze, die zu unnötigen Ausgaben führen können, z. B. wenn ein Personendokument anstelle eines Mail-Ins für geteilte Mailboxen verwendet wird. Wir zeigen Ihnen solche Fälle und deren Lösungen. Und natürlich erklären wir Ihnen das neue Lizenzmodell.
Nehmen Sie an diesem Webinar teil, bei dem HCL-Ambassador Marc Thomas und Gastredner Franz Walder Ihnen diese neue Welt näherbringen. Es vermittelt Ihnen die Tools und das Know-how, um den Überblick zu bewahren. Sie werden in der Lage sein, Ihre Kosten durch eine optimierte Domino-Konfiguration zu reduzieren und auch in Zukunft gering zu halten.
Diese Themen werden behandelt
- Reduzierung der Lizenzkosten durch Auffinden und Beheben von Fehlkonfigurationen und überflüssigen Konten
- Wie funktionieren CCB- und CCX-Lizenzen wirklich?
- Verstehen des DLAU-Tools und wie man es am besten nutzt
- Tipps für häufige Problembereiche, wie z. B. Team-Postfächer, Funktions-/Testbenutzer usw.
- Praxisbeispiele und Best Practices zum sofortigen Umsetzen
The Microsoft 365 Migration Tutorial For Beginner.pptxoperationspcvita
This presentation will help you understand the power of Microsoft 365. However, we have mentioned every productivity app included in Office 365. Additionally, we have suggested the migration situation related to Office 365 and how we can help you.
You can also read: https://www.systoolsgroup.com/updates/office-365-tenant-to-tenant-migration-step-by-step-complete-guide/
2. 2
Evolution of Personal Mobility
T
he din and speculation
surrounding the future
of transportation has
reached a deafening pitch.
Rarely does a day go by without
some major news story about
the driverless future. We
are clearly at an inflection
point between the old and
well-established notion of
transportation, along with all
of its incumbent industrial era
risks and costs, and a future
that promises safe autonomous
vehicles, while it also threatens
a deeply entrenched set of
players, economics, and social
attitudes.
This white paper provides a
radical view into how that
future will change. Not only is
it a glimpse into what personal
mobility will look like in the near
future, but also a prediction
of the ultimate demise of an
era that has been defined by
personal vehicle ownership.
Owning an automobile has
been a part of every aspect
of modern life, from a rite
of passage into adulthood
to a means of retaining
independence into old age.
The projections and conclusions
drawn in this white paper
are based on a detailed
analysis of current trends
and expected advances in
transportation. While the
focus is on what would today
be considered owner-driven
automobiles, rather than
public transportation, taxis,
livery services, and commercial
transport, we expect that the
distinction between many
of these forms of personal
transportation will merge
into a single market, which
is often referred to as TaaS
(Transportation-as-a-Service).
This white paper focuses
primarily on personal mobility,
which we will refer to as MaaS
(Mobility-as-a-Service).
MaaS differs from TaaS since
it focuses specifically on what
will replace single-owner
private vehicles as opposed to
commercial vehicles and public
transportation. MaaS may be
a much harder transition since
one of the greatest obstacles
to the adoption of both Electric
Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous
Vehicles (AVs) will be individual
drivers who have developed a
deep cultural attachment to the
traditional automobile.
We are also already accustomed
to having public transportation
that is driven by autonomous
or semi-autonomous systems.
Envision cars that own
themselves, whose utility is closer
to 90% rather than today’s 10%,
and picture a future where the
total number of cars on the road
drops to less than 1/5 of what it
is today.
Autonomous car's interior concept (top right image) | Photo cheskyw / 123RF Stock Photo
3. 3
From trains to planes, we
accept that highly automated
systems are already responsible
for driving or piloting. These
systems have also had a
measurable and significant
impact on increased safety.
For example, in the case of
air travel, the introduction of
autopilot, Flight Management
Systems, and advanced
computer controlled Fly by
Wire have reduced fatalities per
million flights to just 1% of what
they were 60 years ago1
.
Lastly, due to the ability to
scale public transport by using
technology to require fewer
human operators for more
passengers, we can realize
radically different and far more
attractive economies of scale
in a TaaS Model that are not
initially true of a MaaS model.
Although the evolution of
EVs is a cornerstone of MaaS,
implicit in that is the concurrent
shift to AVs. Without the AV, a
changeover in just the power
source that fuels an automobile
would drive costs down, but
it would not solve either the
1 "A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2016," Airbus, June 2017, http://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-
topics/publications/safety-first/Airbus-Commercial-Aviation-Accidents-1958-2016-14Jun17.pdf
2 Statista https://www.statista.com/topics/1197/car-drivers/
last-mile problem or the issue
of utilization. The last-mile
problem, which deals with the
personalized transport of an
individual to his or her final
destination, cannot be solved
with present public transport
and TaaS models, which focus
on multi-passenger solutions.
As we’ll show, it is the uniquely
powerful combination of the EV
and the AV, with a MaaS model of
transportation, that creates the
disruption which displaces both
the Internal Combustion Engine
(ICE) and the individual ownership
model.
The most radical conclusion
of this report is that there
will be a long-term shift in the
ownership, economics, and
experience of an automobile.
For example, envision cars
that own themselves, whose
utility is closer to 90% rather
than today’s 10%, and which
are used as platforms for
entertainment and socialization.
Even more disruptive is our
projection that the trajectory
for the total number of cars
registered will rise in the short
term but then dramatically
fall from a peak of 550 million
vehicles in 2034 to less than
50 million by 2050—creating
a socioeconomic roller coaster
that will displace workers,
disrupt industries, and force
a wholescale reinvention of
transportation’s role in our lives.
As difficult as the future
of MaaS is to envision, the
trajectory of trend lines that
are driving it—a pun we will try
to avoid as much as possible—
appears to be nearly immutable.
While the timing we present
may be subject to some debate,
we are certain of the direction
and overall conclusions.
It is also important to note
that the data presented in this
report (unless otherwise stated)
reflects USA statistics and
projections. We believe these to
be the most accurate and, due
to the fact that the USA has the
highest ratio of licensed drivers
to registered vehicles (222M
Drivers to 269M vehicles2
), also
the best indicators of long-term
trends in the evolution of MaaS.
4. 4
Personal Mobility and the end of
Automobile Ownership
3 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/distracted-driving
T
he 150-year reign of the
Internal Combustion
Engine (ICE) Vehicle is
fast approaching its end and
with it the near-sacred model
of automobile ownership.
Although conventional wisdom
for the past forty years has
been that the downfall of ICEVs
would be entirely due to the
depletion of fossil fuels, it has
become clear that there are
many more factors at play. The
most significant are the recent
and anticipated advances in the
affordability of electric vehicles,
the ability to easily recharge
battery-powered vehicles,
advances in autonomous
vehicles which are better suited
to electric power, favorable
effects of Moore’s Law on
battery technology, exponential
technologies accelerating the
advances of artificial intelligence
(AI), and the need to deploy
transportation to a global
population that is expected
to reach 10 billion by 2050.
And, not to be discounted, our
round-the-clock connectivity
has created a nearly untenable
level of distraction when we
are driving, which by some
estimates accounts for close to
500,000 incidents yearly.
According to the NHTSA3
:
“In 2016 alone, 3,450 people
were killed. 391,000 were
injured in motor vehicle
crashes involving distracted
drivers in 2015.
During daylight hours,
approximately 481,000 drivers
are using cell phones while
driving. That creates enormous
potential for deaths and
injuries on U.S. roads. Teens
were the largest age group
reported as distracted at the
time of fatal crashes”
What’s surprising about
each of these dynamics is
that they collectively paint
a very different future for
transportation than would have
been anticipated given the
last 150 years of growth in the
single-owner-driven vehicle.
Rather than just changing the
way vehicles are powered, EVs
change the most fundamental
utilization models for
transportation. EVs last longer,
require far less maintenance,
can achieve higher sustained
utilization rates, and
fundamentally alter the
economics of transportation.
In its most extreme form,
MaaS will utilize fleets of fully
autonomous vehicles, which
will be available on-demand
where and when needed. These
vehicles will operate at nearly
full utilization (90%) with down
time only for maintenance
and recharging. Individual
ownership of vehicles will
become a novelty for collectors
and for sport. In countries like
India, where a feudal mindset
persists, car ownership might
even accord pseudo-status in
the short term.
The inevitable result of MaaS
will be something that is
anathema to anyone who has
owned or aspired to own an
automobile—the end of the
single owner automobile. With
that will come what is arguably
the most controversial finding
of our research: that the
number of automobiles will drop
precipitously to a mere 15%
of what it is today in the USA,
For most people, a car is the first
or second largest purchase they
will procure during their lives.
Yet, it is not utilized for 90% of its
useful life
5. 5
from 250 million in 2018 to 33
million in 2050 (see Figure 1).
We see the same approximate
effect across the globe.
MaaS will develop on an
evolutionary path with many
stages of incremental—and
disruptive—advances in both
the supply (manufacturing) and
demand sides (consumers) of
the market. The challenges to
both will be without precedent
given the industrial behemoth
that has been built to supply
automobiles, the number of
jobs associated with traditional
car manufacturing (3% of all
employment in the USA), and
the cultural attachment we
have as a society to vehicle
ownership.
MaaS is so far removed from
the traditional model of car
4 Adrian Lim, "Driverless vehicle rides in three new towns from 2022," The Straits Times, November 23, 2017, http://www.straitstimes.com/
singapore/transport/driverless-vehicle-rides-in-three-new-towns-from-2022
ownership that the forecasts
in this report will likely
appear outlandish as they
tread on some culturally and
economically sacred turf. Cars
are far more than a mode of
transportation. The automobile
has become synonymous
with personal identity in the
developed world. For most
people it is the first or second
largest purchase and ongoing
expense they will incur during
their lives. Yet, unlike a home,
the typical car is idle and has no
utility for 90% of its useful life.
When weighted based on total
cost of ownership over actual
hours used it becomes the single
largest life expense for 99.9% of
the world’s population.
However, the transportation
infrastructure of the developed
world makes MaaS an
absolute necessity. Nine in ten
employees in the USA need a
car to commute to work. Even
when public transportation
is involved, the challenge
remains: the last-mile problem—
getting to and from public
transportation still requires an
automobile on one or both ends
of the commute. Ride-sharing
services are starting to change
that, but their economics are
still tied to models that rely
on private ownership. They
are an interim step in the
right direction but, as we’ll
see, not sustainable in their
current mode. In countries like
Singapore the last-mile problem
is better mitigated through
a combination of seamless
connections and, starting in
2022, even doorstep services
using AVs4
.
Figure 1: Total Number of Vehicles. One of the most remarkable findings of this research is that total vehicles on the road will drop to
less than 15% of it current volume. Why? In a word, utilization.
6. 6
In August 2016, Singapore
introduced its AV taxi service,
“starting small—six cars now,
growing to a dozen by the end
of the year. The ultimate goal
is to have a fully self-driving
taxi fleet in Singapore by 2018,
which will help sharply cut the
number of cars on Singapore’s
congested roads. Eventually,
the model could be adopted
in cities around the world,"
according to nuTonomy, a
Boston-based startup that is
testing autonomous vehicles in
Boston and Singapore.5
We see significant differences
between the adoption of
many prior technologies and
MaaS. Although technology
convergence can experience
exponential growth in
5 Annabelle Liang and Dee-Ann Durbin, "World's First Self-Driving Taxis Debut in Singapore," Bloomberg Technology, August 25, 2016,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-25/world-s-first-self-driving-taxis-debut-in-singapore
6 "Road accidents in India, 2016: 17 deaths on roads every hour, Chennai and Delhi most dangerous", The Indian Express, September 11,
2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/india/road-accidents-in-india-2016-17-deaths-on-roads-every-hour-chennai-and-delhi-most-
dangerous-4837832/
developing countries, MaaS
requires the creation of
significant infrastructure, such
as roads that are suitable to
an AV. One need only watch
any YouTube video of traffic
in a country such as India to
appreciate the challenges of
navigating streets that are
crowded with all types of
vehicles, animals, people, and
an apparently total lack of
adherence to any consistent set
of rules for drivers.
What is often missed in
discussions about AVs in
developing countries is that
the current state of affairs
creates devastatingly higher
rates of injuries and fatalities.
For instance, vehicle fatalities
in India are five times those in
the USA even though India has
approximately 50 million fewer
vehicles!6
When you consider
Vehicle fatalities in India are five
times those in the USA even
though India has approximately
50 million fewer vehicles!
One of Nanyang Technological University (NTU),
Singapore's, Group Rapid Transit (GRT) autonomous
vehicles on the NTU Smart campus
Photo: NTU Singapore
7. 7
that steep human cost, along
with the relatively undeveloped
rules of the road in a developing
country, it is easier to make the
case that a country such as India
could lead the revolution to
MaaS before a country that has
a well-developed, significantly
safer personal transportation
model, and a well-entrenched
and broadly accepted cultural
framework for individual
ownership.
India’s current mobility scenario
differs from the West in that it
still has non-motorized, animal-
driven (and human-propelled!)
transportation, even in
metropolitan cities. Compared
to the developed world,
personal vehicle ownership isn’t
a strong driver.
7 Vishal Krishna, "Technology for disruption: How the connected world will drive Continental’s future," YourStory, April 19, 2018, https://
yourstory.com/2018/04/technology-disruption-connected-world-will-drive-continentals-future/
India’s potential to create
a shared system based on
usership—as opposed to
ownership of the means of
transport—can decrease
congestion: shared and
connected systems can
help provide more viable
mobility alternatives while
simultaneously improving
air quality, especially as
EVs become the default
transportation option. In the
chaotic and disorganized
environment that characterizes
the country, AVs will provide a
much higher level of safety for
people and property.
According to Kurt Lehmann,
Global Corporate Technology
Officer, Continental AG, which
is focused on developing safety
systems for implementation,
“Early tests are being done to
validate our own knowledge
of systems of how they would
or could perform in automated
circumstances. We believe
automated driving is going
to improve safety and will be
adopted in developed markets
soon.
And, yeah, there will be
problems along the way but
it already shows that it is far
safer than a human driving the
vehicle.”7
We also think India’s evolved
IT ecosystem can add value
at the intersections of sensor
technology, vehicle-to-vehicle
communications, response
times and the interplay between
AI, analytics and decision
systems.
The Waymo autonomous car. The
California government has given clearance
for fully autonomous cars to hit the
roads in April 20188
. At the time that
this report was published over 20 states
had legislation relating to AVs.9
However,
recent incidents, including the first
pedestrian fatality from an autonomous
Uber in Tempe Arizona during March of
2018, has caused renewed debate and
discussion about the use of AVs and their
safety.
Photo: Dllu / Wikimedia Commons / CC-
BY-SA 4.0
8 Daisuke Wakabayashi, "California Scraps
Safety Driver Rules for Self-Driving Cars,"
The New York Times, February 26, 2018,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/
technology/driverless-cars-california-rules.
html
9 "Autonomous Vehicles State Bill Tracking
Database," National Conference of State
Legislatures, http://www.ncsl.org/research/
transportation/autonomous-vehicles-
legislative-database.aspx
8. 8
Higher Asset Utilization
O
ne of the primary
economic forces that
will drive the shift
towards MaaS is higher vehicle
utilization. The relationship
between utilization and the
number of vehicles on the road
is a simple one. As with any
machine, the effective cost of
ownership decreases as the
use of that machine increases.
If I pay $100 for a shovel to dig
just one hole then the cost of
the hole is $100. Dig two holes
and the cost per hole is now
$50. Using that same reasoning,
at 5% average utilization,
individually owned automobiles
represent one of the most
underutilized assets in a modern
society. The relationship
between utilization (as hours
driven per day) and the number
of vehicles needed (based on
current demand) is shown in
Figure 2.
The perversity in personal
vehicle use is that utilization
rates are among the lowest
of virtually any significant
asset that most people own.
Ride-sharing services (Uber),
Figure 2: Vehicle utilization rate (in hours/day) – majority of vehicles are used for less than 4 hours a day. However, as utilization
rates increase, the effective number of vehicles needed decreases. At 17% utilization the number of vehicles needed to provide the
same level of transportation as 250,000,000 vehicles drops to roughly 60,000,000 vehicles.
Factors driving
the shift to MaaS
9. 9
ownership sharing (ZipCar), and
owner rentals (SnappCar) are all
helping to improve utilization
rates. However, as we show, the
current model of ride-sharing
is unlikely to account for a
significant jump in utilization.
We expect that ride-sharing
will increase utilization from
the current 5-10% to 20-25%.
However, we see a hard stop
at between 20-25% utilization
due to the inherent limits of
ride-sharing drivers. In other
words, each percentage point
of increased utilization is
equal to about 14.5 minutes
of increased usage per day for
each registered car. However,
10 Jacob Bogage, "How much Uber drivers actually make per hour," The Washington Post, June 27, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/
news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/27/how-much-uber-drivers-actually-make-per-hour/?utm_term=.18039c2b59aa
given that at this time there
are approximately 1,000,000
active ride-sharing drivers in
the US, even if all of these cars
were used 100% of the time
the increased utilization would
amount to less than 10% of
all automobile hours driven
(currently at between 0.05%
and 1.3%).
As a result, we don’t expect a
significant uptake in utilization
from the current model of ride-
sharing in the developed world.
We’re also suspect of the long-
term economics of ride-sharing
that relies on underutilized
owner vehicles, given the
current cost of ownership and
maintenance for ICE cars.When
all costs are accounted for,
Uber drivers make less than or
very close to minimum wage10
.
The EV will lessen this burden
on drivers and enhance the
economics of owning a ride-
share vehicle, but, again, even if
this doubles the net effect will
still be an incremental change in
the overall number of vehicles
due to the inherent limitation
of the driver over the car. The
owner of a ride share car cannot
operate the vehicle more than
a reasonable number of hours
during the day, resulting in a car
that is still underutilized 50-
60% of the time.
Figure 3: Vehicles by numbers/hours/utilization. The long-term trend towards increased hourly automobile usage. Through the early
and mid 2020s we expect to see little change in the overall number of vehicles on the road. In large part that is due to a swapping of
existing ICEVs with EVs during that same time period. However, this will be followed by a steady projected decrease in ICEVs and a
concurrent rise in EVs with the number of EVs on the road surpassing the number of ICEVs by 2030. We project that EVs will then rise
steadily and peak at just over 500 million EVs in 2034. A plateau for EVs and total vehicles is then expected to last for the following
two years. This is the result of a sudden spike in utilization starting in 2034. After 2036 we expect to see a steady decline in total
vehicles as utilization steadily rises and the economics of individual ownership diminish rapidly.
10. 10
Currently, Uber’s business
model for India has more to
do with affordable taxis over
ride-sharing by car owners.
Again, cultural context dictates
the attitudes towards new
transportation models, such as
ride-sharing. Few car owners in
India, who are generally affluent,
want to be Uber drivers. Both
because it does not provide an
attractive enough economic
proposition, but also because
it has a cultural implication
of being a driver rather than
the one being driven. In India
people who would otherwise
use Uber can typically afford
personal drivers and employ
others to drive for them. Uber
India, therefore, needs to adopt
a business model that caters
to drivers, meaning that they
have to sell and finance cars for
those who wish to be full–time
drivers.
In addition, the reason drivers
in other parts of the world have
been flocking to ride-sharing
services over the past several
years has to do with a lack of
awareness of the total cost
of ownership. Over time this
will become more apparent.
Without a significant reduction
in ownership costs, we do
not see ride-sharing through
privately owned cars (by
individuals) as a viable long-
term business model for ICE. It
remains to be seen if this could
be altered significantly through
the lower overall maintenance
costs of an EV. Our inclination is
that it will, but without further
evidence and data to support
11 Andreas Dinger, Ripley Martin, Xavier Mosquet, Maximilian Rabl, Dimitrios Rizoulis, Massimo Russo and Georg Sticher, "Batteries for
Electric Cars," The Boston Consulting Group, 2010, https://www.bcg.com/documents/file36615.pdf
this, we are hesitant to factor
it into the projections we are
making for EVs at this time.
Decreasing Costs Of EVs
O
ne of the greatest
factors that will cause
EV sales to ramp as
quickly as we are projecting for
2026 to 2034 is the anticipated
drop in the cost per kilowatt-
hour for batteries. The cost of
an EV is tied to battery cost
with 33% of a vehicle’s cost
being attributed to the cost of
the batteries. For example, we
can back into the cost of a Tesla
Model 3 by using a formula
which first calculates the cost
of the batteries and then the
total vehicle cost as a multiple
of battery cost, which is 3x if
batteries make up 33% of the
cost.
Since this formula works based
on the ratio of battery cost to
overall cost today, we expect
that it will have to change as
battery costs drop and the
remaining component costs
do not. However, we can still
project costs in today’s dollars
based on a model in which
battery costs decline even
though components costs may
remain static.
Battery costs have fallen
precipitously over the last
decade. A 2010 Boston
Consulting Group report11
noted that it was unlikely per
kWh costs would fall below
$250 by 2020. Today they are
at between $190 (Tesla) and
$260 (GM). Given an average
of $225/kWh, the costs for a
60kWh EV would be:
Vehicle Cost = $225 x 60 x 3
= $13,500 x 3
= $40,500
In this example the battery
pack cost for a 60kWh vehicle
is $13,500 and remaining
component costs are $27,000.
While we expect battery costs
to decrease significantly,
the result will unlikely be a
significantly lower overall cost
for vehicles at the low end
of the EV market. In Figure
4 we show the projected
decrease in battery costs for
a 60kWh battery pack along
with the anticipated increase in
component costs through 2030.
The increase in component
costs is anticipated due to
both inflationary and demand
increases in materials of 3%
year over year. This yields a
total cost that remains relatively
stable (the double top line).
Vehicle cost = Dollar Cost Per
Kilowatt hour x Total Vehicle
Kilowatt hours x 3
11. 11
Without this increase in
component costs, a lower
boundary for total vehicle
cost is shown in the solid blue
line (Figure 4). There is an
argument that could be made
for total costs of a low-end EV
following this lower total cost
trajectory due to the ability
of manufacturers to better
control the component costs
and thereby provide greater
incentive to spur the appeal of
EVs in the short term.
In the final analysis, it seems
clear that the impact of
EVs will be significant and
disruptive from the period
starting in 2025 through 2050.
We have labeled this the
Transformational Gap, which
represents the wholescale
turnover from ICEVs to EVs.
This is not just a transition
from one era to another, it is a
wholescale transformation of
transportation’s role and place
in society. During this period
we are in many ways developing
an entirely new set of attitudes,
norms, cultural adaptations,
and even a new vocabulary.
There will be three periods of
distinct disruption during this
Transformational Gap.
The Handoff 2021-2029
T
he first is the Handoff,
from 2021 through
2029 (see Figure 5).
During the Handoff it will
become increasingly clear that
EVs are not only gaining but
will eventually be replacing
ICEVs. In the early part of the
Handoff, traditional legacy ICEV
manufacturers will need to
already be prepared to compete
directly in the EV market. No
industrial era industry has
ever faced a test on this scale
in which a well-established
product used this broadly, and
requiring this level of consumer
investment, has experienced a
complete turnover.
This means not only altering
the product but the entirety
of the business model for car
sales, ownership, and disposal.
Today that business model is
segmented into three distinct
markets: new car sales, dealer
Figure 4: Projected EV Cost. Projected decrease in battery costs for a 60kWh battery pack along with the anticipated increase in
component costs
12. 12
and automotive repair shops,
and used car resale. The only
significant change in that
model over the life of the ICEV
has been the introduction of
certified pre-owned (CPO)
cars. One of the greatest
challenges for traditional
ICEV manufacturers will be
reengineering this business
model to a MaaS model.
Although the utilization rate for
all vehicles does not begin to
increase until 2036—well after
the Handoff stage—the initial
groundwork for a MaaS model
will be the use of automobiles
as a service, where the owner
will pay an agreed upon price
to the manufacturer for the
use of the automobile, its
maintenance, and its disposal.
This radically alters the current
infrastructure of dealers as
well as the used car market.
Reengineering the product
will be a relatively simple
exercise when compared to
reengineering the overall
marketplace. While many ICEV
manufacturers have committed
to EV, for example PSA Group
(Peugeot and Citroen) has
committed to an 80 percent EV
fleet by 2023, not having a solid
foundation for a MaaS business
strategy will have the same
effect on traditional automobile
manufacturers as digital
photography had on standalone
cameras.
Although the camera industry
experienced a rapid spike in
demand and sales from the early
2000s through 2011, it then fell
precipitously as the smartphone
evolved. With the exception
of professional photography,
which may also be in jeopardy
as dual lens smartphones
evolve, the consumer stand-
alone camera market is all but
dead. Unlike companies such as
Samsung, which had the ability
to benefit from smartphone
sales while they simultaneously
participated in the decimation
of their stand-alone digital
camera market, automobile
manufacturers do not have that
option.
The Drop-Off 2030-2035
T
he second period of
disruption, the Drop-off,
will last from 2030-
2035. During this time those
manufacturers which are not
prepared to first move to a
Figure 5: The three Phases of MaaS. As MaaS trends begin to accelerate, ICEVs will not survive, even though total vehicle hours
will increase dramatically. After the Drop-Off period (2029-2035), during which ICE vehicles will steadily decline while EVs rapidly
increase in prominence, the total number of overall vehicles will start to decline with rapid increases in utilization. (Global data for
total vehicles and vehicle hours is approximately four times that shown for the USA data above. However, timing of the ICE/EV
turnover, as well as the corresponding utilization increases do not correlate directly, in terms of timeline, due to the infrastructure,
economic, and cultural factors which we’ve already described.)
13. 13
life-cycle ownership model and
then a full MaaS model will drop
off the map as they start to face
monumental hurdles when EVs
catch up with and eventually
overtake ICEVs. These laggards
of the industrial-era vehicle
manufacturing industry will
not survive much beyond 2039
when MaaS utilization trends
begin to accelerate rapidly
and enter the final period of
disruption, the Take-off, during
which the EV/AV model has
proven its economic and social
acceptance and benefits.
The Take-Off
D
efining what the period
beyond 2035 will look
like for MaaS and TaaS is
entirely speculative. While we
are very confident in the demise
of the single-owner model of
personal mobility, projecting
forward and depicting a
credible view of how MaaS
will alter the usage model of
the automobile borders on
science fiction. What’s clear
is that the automobile will
transform into a platform for
many other activities well
beyond the transportation of
people. Among these will be its
value for entertainment, on-
demand delivery of goods and
services, healthcare, hospitality,
education, fitness and wellness,
and socialization, among others.
However, there are certainly
applications and use cases that
simply do not exist, nor can
they be predicted. Because, if
they could, we would wonder
how we could possibly be living
without them.
One additional, and very
interesting aspect of the model
we’ve portrayed is its impact
on energy use (as shown in
Figure 6). While there will be
a near-term decline in overall
energy usage through the early
2030s, due to the decline of
ICE vehicles in favor of EVs,
we expect that the longer
term increased utilization and
growing uses of MaaS for non-
traditional vehicle uses will
actual increase overall energy
demands as measured by kWh
(kilowatt hours). However,
Figure 6: Projected Energy Use in kWh. Total energy use will initially decline as MaaS relies increasingly on an EV platform with higher
energy efficiency, which is at least 3 times that of ICE. However, as utilization and new uses for the EV/AV arise we will see that
overall energy use starts to climb once more. While it may be difficult to accurately predict the precise energy uses due to innovations
in EV batteries and motors, it is clear that the shift to an EV/AV platform does little in the long term to alleviate increasing global
energy consumption, other than on a relative basis when compared to ICEVs.
14. 14
the challenge in adequately
projecting this model is that
current kWh usage (for both
EVs and ICE) is based on the
current usage models, which
account for approximately
1kWh per mile for an ICE
vehicle and 0.333 kWh for
12 Assumes a gallon of gas is the equivalent of approx. 33 Kwh.
an EV12
. Undoubtedly the
battery efficiency of EVs will
continue to increase. However,
we bring this up because it
would be foolish and naïve to
expect that the shift to EVs
alone will somehow alleviate
the ever-increasing need to
power transportation. Keep
in mind that this is also just a
USA perspective and does not
take into account the rapid
and extensive growth of MaaS
globally.
Uber’s self-driving cars in downtown San Francisco
Photo: Diablanco / Wikimedia Commons / CC-BY-SA 3.0
15. 15
A Wildly Distributed Future
13 David Z. Morris, “Today’s Cars Are Parked 95% of the Time,” Fortune, March 13, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-
percent-of-time/
O
ne last thing that’s
worth considering in
the context of just
how radical the shift to an EV/
AV vehicle will be is that of
ownership. This is especially
critical to understand in the
context of scaling MaaS globally
to support 10 billion people.
As the MaaS model evolves,
so will some of the most basic
tenets of ownership through
the use of technologies such
as Blockchain, which provides
for an immutable record of
ownership as well as the
elimination of the many layers
of administration involved in
traditional buy/sell business
models and bank financing—
most of which are not even an
option in many developing parts
of the world. That may all sound
a bit obtuse so let’s make it easy
to follow using ride-sharing as
an example.
Today Uber relies on owners
of cars to provide ride-sharing
services to clients. What makes
this model work is that there
are lots of car owners who have
cars that are on average used
only 5% of the time13
. That’s an
enormous waste of value and
resources, which is why Uber’s
model is a great way to leverage
latent assets and people while
addressing a fundamental need
of a modern urban ecosystem—
the need for frictionless
mobility.
When most people try to
Autonomous car interior concept | Photo: cheskyw / 123RF Stock Photo
16. 16
adapt the Uber model to an
autonomous vehicle the natural
inclination is to imagine Uber
buying fleets of robotic cars.
But that just perpetuates an
industrial era ownership model.
You can picture row upon row
of Uber cars that all look the
same; we’ve just gone back to
any color as long as it’s black.
It would certainly be more
efficient from the standpoint
of resource utilization since
the cars wouldn't be sitting in a
garage or a parking lot 95% of
the time. However, there’s still
a corporation with employees,
management and executives,
offices and equipment to factor
into the equation. Additionally,
the competitive landscape
would be limited since
enormous initial investment
would be required to effectively
compete against Uber’s scale.
Instead, what if autonomous
cars were non-human legal
entities in which many people
had a stake, not unlike a public
corporation, which has many
owners? We’d ask that you stop
here and think about all of the
reasons why that wouldn't work.
We’re going to guess that your
list may include: individual cars
would be much more expensive
assets since they could not
achieve economies of scale;
autonomous cars could not
maintain themselves; if riders
were unhappy there’s nobody to
complain to; what happens to
a car when it’s no longer viable;
who’s to blame if the car is
involved in an accident?
Technologies such as Blockchain
can address every one of these
concerns by allowing cars to
collaborate with each other and
to form coalitions with buying
power, clout, and economies
of scale. Blockchain enables
transactions for self-service
to be conducted with other
human or non-human entities,
such as an automotive repair
shop; the AV can even sell itself
off for parts and distribute the
proceeds to its owners when
demand for its services dips
below a profitable threshold;
and, just like a human, it can
have insurance coverage and
funds to pay for damages or
liabilities.
Depending on how profitable
any particular AV is, you could
move your stake from car to car
based on which ones perform
best. Pools of cars could join
forces to create their own
AV corporations and build in
redundancy to increase profit
margins and return to owners,
they could even build a brand
image for themselves.
While the notion of cars that
own themselves may seem far-
fetched, there is no practical
reason why this cannot be done.
The technologies needed to do
this exist today. Refinement will
no doubt be needed but there
is nothing extraordinary about
what we’re describing. In fact,
in developing parts of the world
where individual ownership is
economically inconceivable, or
where the overhead needed
to introduce an industrial era
model of corporate ownership is
economically unattractive, this
may be the only economically
viable model to bring the
transportation needed to build a
thriving economy for ten billion
people.
One last point, on the topic
of replacing humans. To those
who insist that humans must be
involved we can only say, “Look
at the history of that same
sentiment over the past two-
hundred years.” Not only have
we been consistently wrong
about the inability of machines
to replace humans, but we
have also been wring about our
inability as humans to find more
…the AV can even sell itself off for
parts and distribute the proceeds
to its owners when demand for its
services dips below a profitable
threshold; and, just like a human,
it can have insurance coverage
and funds to pay for damages or
liabilities.
17. 17
valuable and meaningful work
to apply ourselves to.
The percentage of
unemployment in the
developed nations of the world
has certainly experienced
oscillations throughout the
twentieth century, but there
is no long-term upward trend.
The USA experienced five
percent unemployment in 1920
14 US Census Bureau, 20th Century Statistics, accessed October 2, 2017, https://www.census.gov/prod/99pubs/99statab/sec31.pdf
and 6.2 percent in 2014. The
UK entered and exited the
twentieth century with five
percent unemployment.14
It seems that we’re outstanding
at describing how technology
will replace humans, but we
consistently fail to predict how
it will create new jobs. That’s
because we fail to appreciate
the scale of the new prosperity
that it will enable. For instance,
the tremendous success of the
automobile, and the industries
it spawned, created far more
jobs than it ever eliminated
by replacing the carriage and
horse.
There’s no doubt that AVs will
do the same.
Interior of the Mercedes Benz autonomous concept car at the 86th International
Geneva Motor Show in Palexpo, Geneva, March 1, 2016
Photo: jvdwolf / 123RF Stock Photo
18. 18
A Radical New Vision of Personal
Mobility
15 Kirsten Korosec, "2016 Was the Deadliest Year on American Roads in Nearly a Decade," Fortune, February 15, 2017, http://fortune.
com/2017/02/15/traffic-deadliest-year/
W
hile we have no
doubt as to the
long-term trajectory
of MaaS, we are just as sure of
the disruptive threat it will pose
to a century-old industry that is
well-entrenched and ensconced
in an employment, business,
and cultural model that may
seem immovable. However, the
economic factors that will drive
the changes we have outlined
will be impossible to ignore.
1. Insurance companies will adjust models for insuring human-
driven vehicles, making car ownership a financially unviable
model for individual owners.
2. The transition of the automobile from a form of transportation
from point A to point B to a form of entertainment and
socialization will create a new platform for the delivery of
content and media.
3. Autos will function as vehicles for socialization in which
people connect and gather. Some will be mobile conference
and meeting rooms, others mobile restaurants and clinics.
Commute time will cease to exist and along with it untold
hours of lost productivity.
4. The AV will finally allow de-urbanization and decongestion of
urban city centers, which are today littered with automobiles
that occupy valuable land. For example, in the typical large city
50% of the land area is dedicated to roadways and parking.
5. According to the National Safety Council the cost of motor-
vehicle deaths, injuries, and property damage in 2016 was
$432 billion15
in the USA alone. If AVs do for vehicular
transport what Flight Management Systems did for air travel
we could reduce that by 99%.
6. The evolution of EVs and AVs will vary significantly from
geography to geography and country to country. While
commercial TaaS infrastructure will likely develop quickly
in developed countries such as the USA, individual non-
ownership-based MaaS is likely to take longer. The inverse is
true of developing countries, such as India, which will have a
higher economic incentive and regulatory latitude to move to
MaaS.
7. We expect employment disruption by MaaS within developed
countries that rely heavily on both the manufacture of ICEVs
and of transportation.
19. 19
16 Zachary Shahan, “NASA Says: Automobiles Largest Net Climate Change Culprit,” CleanTechnica, February 23, 2010, https://cleantechnica.
com/2010/02/23/nasa-says-automobiles-largest-climate-change-culprit/.
17 "Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," United States Environmental Protection Agency, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-
greenhouse-gas-emissions
18 Mike Berners-Lee and Duncan Clark, "What's the carbon footprint of ... a new car?" The Guardian, September 23, 2010, https://www.
theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car
8. And lastly, let’s not forget the potential impact of vehicles on
global pollution and climate change. According to a study by
NASA, vehicles are the single largest contributor to climate
change.16
While we’ve projected in Figure 6 the longer-term
increase in overall energy utilization, a 90 percent reduction
in the number of vehicles and a shift from fossil fuels to
renewable energy sources would have a profound impact
since 28 percent of all carbon emissions in the USA are from
transportation17
and the carbon footprint to manufacture an
automobile is as great as that of operating it.18
A Google self-driving car in Mountain View, California
Photo: Grendelkhan / Wikimedia Commons / CC-BY-SA 4.0
20. 20
A
s a result of these
irreversible economic
factors and new market
opportunities, we expect a
global shift to MaaS during the
next 30 years. The timeline will
be approximately as follows:
Present to 2020 –
Disruption
T
his period will be
characterized by a great
deal of legislative and
business model disruption. We
expect a hybrid market where
all types of vehicles (ICE/EV/
AV) will compete based on
differing value propositions. The
economics of EV/AV ownership
will still be subject to a great
deal of variation as traditional
vehicle manufacturers and
consumers co-exist. Ride-
sharing will continue to expand
its footprint and impact and
AVs will amplify this. The
impact on employment in
the transportation industry
will begin to raise concerns
about displacement of
workers within the commercial
transportation sector. However,
all of these factors will only
incrementally impact the overall
transportation sector.
2021 to 2029 – The Hand-
Off
D
uring this period, the
economics of EVs,
the acceleration of AI
and its use in AVs, the large-
scale deployment of AVs in
ride-sharing and commercial
transport, and the emergence
of irrefutable evidence as to
the safety of AVs will start
to make the insurability
of human-driven vehicles
more expensive and begin
to diminish their attraction
to even their most diehard
proponents. At the same time
the demand for transportation
in developing countries will
exceed the ability to supply
traditional transportation
through individually-owned
vehicles. EVs battery technology
will dramatically improve the
business model and affordability
of EVs. Most notably, EVs on
the road will exceed ICEVs for
the first time.
We also see this as the
most critical decade for the
evolution of MaaS in developing
countries, which will need to
decide on how to scale their
transportation infrastructure
to accommodate the needs
of a burgeoning and aging
workforce. Based on global
population pyramids, the largest
percentage rate of growth will
occur in the over 60-years-
old age group. In fact, for the
first time in history, the global
population of the over-65
age group has exceeded the
five-year-old and younger
age group. The challenge is
that this older age group has
historically not been as mobile
due to retirement and health.
Both factors are changing with
retirement being pushed out or
eliminated altogether and work-
life expectancy approaching
a convergence with life
expectancy by 2100. Mobility
will be critical to keeping this
aging population an active
part of the workforce and the
economy.
This period will also create
the final tipping point for
acceptance that the safety of
an AV far surpasses that of a
human-driven vehicle. That
will finally start to detach us
from the cultural legacy of
the automobile. For example,
it’s easy to imagine scenarios
where parents will be glad to
have their child in an AV rather
than a car driven by a family
member, a friend, a third-party
transportation service, or, in
the extreme, by another 16- or
17-year-old child! Since that will
define the cultural framework
for this generation of children
who have never known a
human-driven experience, it is
entirely expected that they will
see no need to become drivers.
In fact, they will come up with
myriad reasons why not to.
2030 to 2035 – The Drop-
Off
W
ith the number of
EVs finally overtaking
the number of
ICEVs on the road, a shift in
greater affordability of an EV
over an ICEV, the tipping point
for ICEVs and human drivers
will have been reached. While
at the start of this period the
number of vehicles on the road
will increase, it will soon peak
and then start its decline, slowly
at first but then accelerating
towards the end of this period.
In many ways we regard this
period as the most critical
global shift in establishing the
final move from individually-
owned vehicles to MaaS.
21. 21
2036 to 2050 – The Take-
Off
T
he transition to the EV/
AV platform will have
reached well beyond an
economic and cultural tipping
point. At this stage the new
cornerstone players will have
emerged, fleet turnover from
an ICEV to EV/AV will be
complete, human-driven will be
a novelty, and utilization rates
will skyrocket as the number of
vehicles declines precipitously.
New Beginnings
T
he forces we have
described are just the
foreseeable ones. As with
any shift of this magnitude, it is
clear that the opportunities of
MaaS are far greater than we
can currently envision. So too
is the disruption that MaaS will
bring as we reengineer not only
the automobile but also one of
the world’s largest industries.
Still, the inevitability of this
shift is clear. The human-driven
automobile has become an icon
of economic progress and a
cultural expression of freedom
and status. Yet, the price paid
for both has been steep when
measured in the impact on
human lives and the ecosystem.
Continuing to scale the current
model of transportation is
simply not sustainable. The
mandate is irrefutable; MaaS
will not only positively alter the
economy but will fundamentally
enhance our environment and
the very human experience of
how we live, work and play.
nuTonomy, a Boston-based startup, is testing
autonomous vehicles in Boston and Singapore.
Photo: nuTonomy
22. 22
About the Authors
Thomas M. Koulopoulos
Chairman and Founder of
Delphi Group, a thirty-year-
old global futures think
tank which advises F500
companies and governments
on technology trends. Author
of eleven books, past director
of the Babson College Center
for Business Innovation, an
adjunct professor at Boston
University, a columnist for Inc.
com, and Founding Partner of
Acroventures, an investment
and advisory firm focusing on
AI and leading edge behavioral
technologies.
@TKspeaks
linkedin.com/in/
thomaskoulopoulos/
Sunil Malhotra
Cofounder | CEO of Ideafarms,
India’s leading #DesignInTech
Advisory and Consulting firm
that pioneered using concepts
and approaches of Industrial
Design in ICT. A breakthrough
practitioner of Design Thinking
and coach, he is a global
thought leader in Design-led
Business Strategy. Impulsive
collaborator.
@SunilMalhotra
linkedin.com/in/sunil-malhotra/
Meta
Keywords
Electric Vehicles, Autonomous
Vehicles, Transportation,
Mobility-as-a-Service,
Personal Mobility, Future of
Transportation
Suggested citation
Thomas M. Koulopoulos and
Sunil Malhotra, "Transporation
2050: The Future of Personal
Mobility," May 2018
23. 23
Read about the rise of AI and Autonomous Vehicles, how our Invisible Behaviors are being
captured and monetized, the emergence of The Digital Self, the future of Cryptocurrencies
and the Blockchain, the rise of the Post Industrial Era, and more, in Tom’s book.
Revealing The Invisible:
How Our Hidden Behaviors Became The Most Valuable Commodity Of The 21st Century
Available at all booksellers including Amazon.com
Visit the book website at www.revealingbook.com