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Future of Mobility
The technologies and trends driving innovation in the
emerging mobility ecosystem
SVB Frontier Tech Practice
Future of Mobility 2
Executive Summary
The global transportation industry is ripe for disruption, as new
technologies, modes and platforms are emerging.
The transportation industry is undergoing significant structural changes,
brought about by a confluence of social, demographic, political, financial
and technological forces. An emerging mobility ecosystem is bridging the
gap between the digital and physical worlds, leveraging advances in
fundamental hardware, artificial intelligence and communications.
As a result of these rapid changes, the way people and goods move from
point A to point B will consist of technology-enabled, shared, multimodal,
electric and autonomous transportation. This report takes a deep dive into
the forces driving these changes, the players involved and the effect that the
emerging mobility paradigm will have on the industry and the economy.
Report Highlights
Future of Mobility 3
• If the global transportation industry were a country, it would be the third-
largest economy in the world by annual revenue, behind only the US and
China.
• Although still in development, autonomous vehicle systems and hardware
have received more than $20 billion in funding over the past decade.
• By 2025, 25% of cars sold will have electric drivetrains, up from 5%
today.
• We expect maturation in electric vehicles in one to three years, shared
and multimodal transportation in three to five years and autonomous
vehicles in five to 10 years.
• We predict that the battle among ride-sharing companies, carmakers and
technology giants will result in each settling on partnering in its
respective area of expertise.
4 The Transportation Industry Today: Poised for Incremental Change or
Mass Disruption?
10 The Four Pillars of Mobility: The Future will be Shared, Multimodal, Electric
and Autonomous.
12 Shared Transportation: Social and Capital Forces Shape a Shared
Mobility Network.
16 Multimodal Transportation: A Seamless Mobility Platform Emerges,
Enabled by the New and the Old.
20 Electric Vehicles: A Promising Future but Challenges Remain.
25 Autonomous Vehicles: Amid a Global Wave of Funding, Will the Technology
Live Up to the Hype?
29 Who Will Own the Mobility Platform of the Future? How Key Stakeholders
Are Placing Their Bets Today to Position Themselves for the Future.
Contents
Future of Mobility 4
The Transportation
Industry Today
Future of Mobility 5
With $20.2 trillion in total assets, the global
transportation industry is strongly tied to and
influences many other major industries.
Future of Mobility
Transportation Is Big Business
Gross Domestic Product of the Four Largest
Economies vs. Global Transportation Revenues
Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis
If the global transportation industry werea country, it would be the third-largest economy in the world by annual
revenue, behind only the US and China.
Total Invested Capital in Transportation,
by Sector — Trailing 10 Years
6
$0
$5T
$10T
$15T
$20T
$25T
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Japan China Germany Transportation
Note: For US, China and Germany, 2018 GDP data includes forecasted figure for Q4 2018.
$6.96T
Infrastructure – 3.3%
Rail – 3.8%
Road – 3.9%
Ride-Sharing – 4.1%
Commercial Transportation
4.2%
Marine
5.2%
Autonomous Vehicles
7.0%
Energy
Transportation
8.2%
Logistics
8.4%
Air – 8.5%
Automotive – 12.3%
All Other
Transportation
31.1%
Aging
Infrastructure
Lost
Productivity
Public
Health
Environmental
Impact
In 2017, the American
Society of Civil Engineers
gave the nation’s
infrastructure an overall
grade of D+ on its
Infrastructure Report Card.
Key infrastructure
categories, including
aviation, roads and transit,
all received individual
grades of D or lower.1
Traffic is expensive. In the
US alone, traffic congestion
cost cities and drivers
$305 billion in 2017.
Census data shows that the
American commute is
getting longer, and the
longest commutes in the
nation are also the fastest-
growing.2
Nearly 40,000 people
in the US die each year in
transportation-related
incidents. There are also
hidden costs, as air pollution
and contaminants from
transportation are indirectly
linked with respiratory
and cardiovascular
health issues.3
Twenty-two percent of
global greenhouse gas
emissions are attributed
to the transportation sector.
Noise is known to have
harmful effects on delicate
ecosystems, and carbon
monoxide emissions
contribute to steadily
decreasing air quality.4
Future of Mobility
The World Is Ready for Change
Source: (1) American Society of Civil Engineers, (2) INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard,
(3) National Safety Council and (4) United States Environmental Protection Agency
Our current transportation networks have served us well for a long time, but no one can deny that the system is
strained. As the global population increases and cities become more densely populated, these problems will only get
worse if nothing is done to address them. People around the world are ready for a new mobility paradigm — one that
fits their digital lifestyle and alleviates the issues associated with our current transportation systems.
7
Future of Mobility
The Technology Has Arrived
Source: McKinsey & Company and SVB analysis
A confluence of technological advancements in various fields has allowed solutions to be developed to solve common
problems in the transportation industry. From autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) to shared
mobility platforms, new developments are happeningevery day.
Aerospace
5G
Internet of Things
(IoT)
Semiconductors
Storage
Automation
Energy
Electric
Satellite
Mobile
Cloud
3D Printing
Global Transportation Revolution
The evolutionof the car is a perfect example of this greater technology-drivenphenomenon.For example, 90 percent of innovations
and new features in the automotive industryare driven by softwareand electronics,which account for 35 to 40 percent of an average
car’s productioncost. Advancesin drivetrain technology,lightweight materials, vehicle-to-vehiclecommunication and AI are the
leading areasof innovation.
8
Adoption Will Take Time
Time
Expectations
Plateau will be reached in:
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
More than 10 years
4D Printing
Neuromorphic
Hardware
Human
Augmentation
5G
Quantum
Computing
Volumetric
Displays
Smart Workspace
Smart Robots
IoT Platform
Connected Home
AVs
Nanotube Electronics
Delivery UAVs
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
Innovation Trigger Peak Expectations Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
EVs
Urban Mobility
Ride-Sharing Platforms
Passenger
UAVs
The technology is here, but it will take time to mature. Some transportation technologies are already online and will
get more advanced with time, such as ride-sharingplatforms, personal electric vehicles (PEVs) and unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs).
Source: Gartner and SVB analysis Future of Mobility 9
265
373
415
466
419
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
$0
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
$30B
$35B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Invested
Capital
Number
of
Deals
Future of Mobility
A Global Funding Wave
Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis
Venture Financing in Transportation
Technology: 2014–2018
By Q4, 2018 venture capital (VC) investment in transportation startups neared $35B and is on track to double the
amount of fundraising a year ago. The bulk of this capital was directed toward ride-sharingplatforms such as Uber,
Didi, Grab and Lyft, which have all raised $1B+ mega-rounds in 2018. At the same time, median pre-money valuations
for transportation-related startups have almost doubled to $50M in 2018, up from $23M the year prior.
Transportation Technology: Median Pre-Money
Valuation and Median Deal Size 2015–2018
10
Asia North America Europe
South America
Africa and Middle East
Deal Count
$14M
$19M
$23M
$50M
$2M $3M $4M
$6M
$0
$10M
$20M
$30M
$40M
$50M
$60M
2015 2016 2017 2018
Median Pre-Money Valuation Median Deal Size
The Four Pillars
of Mobility
Future of Mobility 11
Shared Multimodal Electric Autonomy
The mobility platform of the
future will build on the idea of
distributed and shared mobility.
Fewer people will own cars and
instead will opt to use on-
demand services, enabling
greater vehicle-use efficiency
and less congestion.
The future of mobility will
consist of a highly flexible
platform comprising various
modes of transportation, each
providing a unique solution.
Every leg of a journey will come
with an array of transportation
options.
The first electric car was built in
1832, and we’ve come a long way
since then. Today, EVs have
better power, speed, and safety
compared with gas-powered
cars, and they’re better for the
environment.
Although still in development,
AV systems and hardware are
heavily researched and have
received more than $10B of
funding. Large automakers and
tech giants are racing to build the
first fully commercialized
product.
Future of Mobility
What Are the Four Pillars of Mobility?
*Data for all companies within each PitchBook vertical, for prior 10 years
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis
There are four key areas in which innovation in transportation is taking place. The future mobility paradigm will
consist of autonomous systems and powerful electric drivetrains across a wide variety of modes, most of which will
be seamlessly shared, connected, safe, convenient, personalized and on-demand.
Global Venture Capital Activity in Mobility*
12
Number of
Startups: 242
Capital Invested: $58.0B
Number of Deals: 574
Investors: 1,318
Largest Deal: $7.3B
Number of
Startups: 72
Capital Invested: $4.1B
Number of Deals: 151
Investors: 362
Largest Deal: $621M
Number of
Startups: 448
Capital Invested: $24.7B
Number of Deals: 986
Investors: 1,290
Largest Deal: $3.2B
Number of
Startups: 202
Capital Invested: $10.0B
Number of Deals: 398
Investors: 848
Largest Deal: $1.0B
Shared
Transportation
Future of Mobility 13
Future of Mobility
The Sharing Economy Hits Mobility
Source: Goldman Sachs, Dalia Research and Statista
Shared transportation is being driven by demographic and social forces and technology. Some would argue that the
biggest innovation in mobility was the invention of the smartphone. The success of ride-sharing companies like Uber, Lyft
and Didi is a testament to that statement. Technology has also made sharing simple: from knowing when the next bus is
coming, paying for small transactions effortlessly and being able to rent a car (or a seat) quickly, easily and cheaply.
18%
49%
28%
35%
13%
18%
13%
17%
7%
5%
7% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Global
Millennials Baby Boomers
Generation X
0M
10M
20M
30M
40M
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
51%
46%
38%
35%
33%
30%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
China
Mexico
Russia
Spain
Brazil
US
UK
Percentage of People Who Use Ride-Sharing
Services by Country
14
Willingness to Car-Share by Generation and Region Number of People Worldwide Who Share Vehicles
Three and a half billion peoplearound the globe
live in cities — and the United Nations says that
the world population will double by 2050.
Growing urban density is resulting in more
“megacities” — thosehaving a population greater
than 10 million. Already, there are 47 megacities
around the world, with 15 in China and 31
elsewhere in Asia.
Future of Mobility
Increasing Urbanization Will Push
Transportation to Its Limits
Source: UN World Urbanization Data and Wikipedia
0B
1B
2B
3B
4B
5B
6B
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Global Urban and Rural Population: 1950–2050
Urban Population Rural Population
The solution to the growingissues surrounding
urban density is multipronged and includes a mix
of affordable public transportation and efficient
ride-sharingtechnology.
With increasingurban density, the role of ride-
sharing technology to reduce congestion has
never been greater. While AVs garner a lot of
attention in the media, issues with traffic will
continue to increase globally if AVs do not have
robust ride-sharing capabilities.
15
Future of Mobility
SoftBank Bets Big on Ride-Sharing
SoftBank Investments in Shared Transportation
Companies: 2014–2018
SoftBank: Breakdown of
Shared Transportation
by Investment by Country
The Japanese conglomerate SoftBank has made waves by writingbig checks. It has made multibillion-dollar
investments in ride-sharingcompanies around the globe, including China, India and Brazil, while the number of
companies is concentrated in the United States.
16
$0
$1B
$2B
$3B
$4B
$5B
$6B
$7B
$8B
$9B
$10B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other Ride-Sharing
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis
SoftBank: Breakdown of
Shared Transportation
by Company by Country
US
Brazil
China
Singapore
India
7%
1%
41%
13%
9%
43%
14%
14%
14%
14%
US
Brazil
China
Singapore
India
Multimodal
Transportation
Future of Mobility 17
Future of Mobility
What Is Multimodal Transportation?
The concept of multimodal transportation is not new. In fact, much of freight transportation is “intermodal,” meaning
multiplemodes of transportation are used without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. The future
of mobility will take this concept and apply it to human transportation.
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis 18
0–5 Miles 5–15 Miles 15+ Miles
60% of trips in the US 25% of trips in the US 15% of trips in the US
Electric bikes, scooters, skateboards Ride-hailing Car-sharing, public transport, aerial transport
Micro-Mobility Medium Distance Long Distance
Future of Mobility
Millennials and Mobility: A Generational Shift
The millennial generation is the largest in US history and has unique mobility preferences. Millennials prefer the most
practical transportation method for each trip. According to the study Millennials and Mobility, nearly 70 percent of
millennials use multiple travel options several times per week. Car-sharing, bike-sharing and public transportation
are all on the rise when compared with car ownership. This is largely due to smartphone applications, which allow
transit users to be increasingly spontaneous and flexible with their travel decisions.
0M
10M
20M
30M
40M
50M
60M
70M
80M
90M
2016 2024 2032 2040 2048
US Population by Generation: 2016–2050
70%
46%
87%
25%
69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-Year-Olds with Licenses 19-Year-Olds with Licenses
1983 2014
Millennials Who Use
Multimodal Transportation
Several Times per Week
Teen Driver’s License Rates: 1983 vs. 2014
Millennials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Silent
Source: Pew Research, American Public Transportation Association,
University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute and SVB analysis 19
Future of Mobility 20
The Fastest Unicorns Ride Scooters
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis
Four unicorns have rapidly emerged in the micro-mobility space: Ofo and Hellobike, both China-based bike-sharing
platforms, and Bird Rides and Lime, US-based scooter-sharing services. Electric scooter startup Bird is the fastest
company to reach a valuation of more than $1B. One of many scooter startups currently sweeping the US, Bird was
last valued at $2.3B after closing $450M in Series C1 fundingin June 2018.
Speed of Growth Based on Months from Founding Date to Achieving Unicorn Status
Months from Founding Date
+ +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Electric Scooter or Bike-Sharing Company
Other
Note: Circle size represents company valuation at time of reaching unicorn status.
A unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at more than $1B.
Electric Vehicles
Future of Mobility 21
0.2M 0.3M
0.5M 0.8M
1.3M
2.1M
0.4M
0.7M
1.3M
2.M
3.3M
5.4M
0M
1M
2M
3M
4M
5M
6M
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000
Worldwide EV productionhas been steadily
climbing. On the supply side, the cost of
manufacturing EVs has dropped significantly
due to technological improvements in the
manufacturing process.
On the demand side, EV adoptionis picking up as
fuel costs and environmental concerns weigh on
consumers. Furthermore, regulatory benchmarks
are requiring automakers to manufacture more EVs.
By 2025, 25 percent of cars sold will require electric
drivetrains, up from 5 percent today.
Future of Mobility
Less Is More for EVs
Source: Goldman Sachs, EV Volumes, and SVB analysis
One catalyst driving innovationin EV technology is the fact that EVs have just one-third the amount of parts of
conventional vehicles, which enables EV startups to compete with larger auto manufacturers on pricing.
Number of EVs Produced and Sold Worldwide: 2013–2018
Average Number of Parts: Conventional Vehicles vs. EVs
EV Production EV Sales
EVs
Conventional Vehicles
22
$23M $23M
$13M
$46M
$70M
0M
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
$350M
$400M
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EV Activity Is Sparking
Future of Mobility
Venture Investment in EV Startups:
2015–2018
EV Startups: Pre-Money Valuation Ranges,
25th to 75th Percentile, 2014–2018
Investment activity in EV and battery technology has gained momentum in recent years as regulations require
manufacturers to meet EV production targets and consumers gradually adopt hybrid and electric vehicles. Median
pre-money valuations have climbed significantly in the past two years as venture and corporate investors in the US
and China place significant bets on market leaders.
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis 23
82
86
93
108
118
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$0
$1B
$2B
$3B
$4B
$5B
$6B
$7B
$8B
$9B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other EV
Startups
Deal
Count Median Valuation
$660M
$321M
$711M
$1.4B
$38M $79M $192M $217M
$767M
$2.3B
$4.5B
$6.4B
$0
$1B
$2B
$3B
$4B
$5B
$6B
$7B
2015 2016 2017 2018
China Leads the Pack in EVs
Future of Mobility
EV Sales Forecast by Global Region Population of Five Largest Cities: China vs. US
12.7M
12.9M
14.0M
19.6M
23.4M
1.6M
2.3M
2.7M
4.0M
8.6M NewYork
LosAngeles
Chicago
Houston
Philadelphia
Shanghai
Beijing
Chengdu
Tianjin
Guangzhou
Global Venture Investment in EVs: 2014–2018
UnitedStates
China
0M
5M
10M
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Number
of
Cars
Rest of the World Carmakers
Europe
With about two-thirds of the 3 million EVs worldwide made and used in China, it’s clear that China is emerging as a
global leader in EV development and adoption. This is no coincidence; the Chinese government has created a
supportive regulatory environment and provided significant funding for EV startups.
Source: The World Bank, Bloomberg, PitchBook and SVB analysis
25M 15M 5M 5M 15M 25M
24
0M
5M
10M
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Number
of
Cars
Chinese Carmakers
0M
2M
4M
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Number
of
Cars
US Carmakers
7M
3M
6M
Autonomous
Vehicles
Future of Mobility 25
Future of Mobility
The Technology of Autonomy
Source: MIT Technology Review and SVB analysis
The technology behind autonomy is complex, consisting of a patchworkof sensors and systems that allow the vehicle
to receive and react to information from its surroundings. Progress in AV technology is the result of years of
engineering and computer science research bridging various fields, as well as robust funding from venture and
corporate investors.
Sensors and Cameras
Data about the vehicle’s surroundings are
captured by onboard sensors and cameras,
allowing precise movements in environments
that are constantly changing.
Machine Learning
AI systems improve vehicle
performance without the need for
continual reprogramming, aided by
frequent and automatic software
updates via the cloud.
Local Data Processors
Onboard computers with specialized
chipsets and software automatically
perform real-time calculations with
terabytes of data, enabling critical
decision-making in milliseconds.
AI
Deep-learning algorithms enable the
vehicle to quickly adapt to changing
circumstances and continuously learn
from new environments and
situations.
High-Performance GPS
Geosynchronous and low-
earth orbit satellites track
location down to a few feet,
helping guide the vehicle to
its destination.
Connectivity
All the systems onboard are
networked, communicating
with other vehicles and
surrounding objects. This
allows for adjustments
due to changing weather
or road conditions.
LiDAR
Light Detection and Ranging technology
senses traffic and vehicle brake lights. These
sensors can even detect road conditions
based on changes in the amount of light
being detected on the road.
Millimeter-Wave Radar
Millimeter-wave radar uses radio
waves to determine the presence,
distance and velocity of
surrounding objects.
Cloud-Based Data Processing
Real-time telemetric data is hosted on cloud-
based servers, allowing the vehicle to process
vehicle speeds and surrounding-car proximity.
26
Future of Mobility
Funding in Autonomy Dominated by Large Rounds
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis
Global Venture Investment in Autonomous Vehicle Companies, except UBER: 2014–2018
In 2015, Uber first made its interest in self-driving cars public when it hired 40 researchers and scientists from the
National Robotics Engineering Center at Carnegie Mellon University. Following Uber’s decision to invest in autonomy,
the company raised nearly $10B in venture investment, and several AV startups followed suit with massive rounds of
their own, making rounds less than $100M seem relatively small.
27
19
36
53
107
118
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$0
$500M
$1.0B
$1.5B
$2.0B
$2.5B
$3.0B
$3.5B
$4.0B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capital
Invested
Pony.ai
Zoox
Xpeng
NIO
Other AV Startups
Deal Count
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026+
Level 5
Level 5
Level 5
Level 5
Level 5
Level 4
Level 4
Level 4 Level 5
Level 4
Level 4 Level 5
Level 3
Level 0
No Automation
Level 1
Driver Assistance
Level 2
Partial Automation
Level 3
ConditionalAutomation
Level 4
High Automation
Level 5
Full Automation
Future of Mobility 28
The Race Is On
Legacy automakers are racing to releasea commercial AV. Many have announced their timelines publicly, but who
will be first?
Source: Emerj and SVB analysis
KEY
Introduced
Passed
House
Passed
Senate
To
President
Became
Law
Introduced
Passed
House
Passed
Senate
To
President
Became
Law
The State of AV Regulations
Law Passed
Executive Order
Pending
All Failed
None Considered
A regulatory environment that supports both consumers and companies is critical to the continued development of
AVs. Federal regulations concerning AVs have been introduced, while state legislatures are passing laws that vary
greatly from state to state. These distinctions will affect how states license AVs going forward, and they will set the
stage for large differences in AV adoption across the US.
American Vision for Safer Transportation Through
Advancement of Revolutionary Technologies Act*
Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research
in Vehicle Evolution Act*
AV START Act
SELF DRIVE Act
• Establishes that federal government,
not states, will regulate AVs
• Manufacturerscan’t sellor in any other
way introduceAVs unlesstheyhavea
data privacy plan
• Establishes a federal advisory
council onAVs
• Requires “safety assessment
certifications” bymanufacturers
• Prohibits sellingAVs unless
manufacturerhas a detailed
cybersecurity plan
Future of Mobility
*Progress as of Q4 2018
Source: Congress.gov, National Conference of State Legislatures, Brookings Institute and SVB analysis 29
Regulation by US State
• Addressesconflictswith current
federal vehicle safety standards
(e.g.,oldregulationsthat requirea
steeringwheel)
• Requiresmanufacturersto produce
safety evaluation reports
• Establishes a technical advisory
board
Who Will Own the
Mobility Platform
of the Future?
Future of Mobility 30
Future of Mobility
Ride-Sharing Companies?
A A
A
Autonomous
A
Lime:$335MSeriesC
JumpBike:$250M
acquisition
Developingtheir own
self-drivingcar technology
Otto:$680M acquisition
PartneringwithNASA to
developUberAIR
PartneringwithOEM Volvo
Continuingto developtheir
ownride-sharingtechnology
Motivate:$250M
acquisition
PartneringwithWaymo,
Google’sself-drivingcar
division
PartneringwithFord
Buildingself-drivingtechin
partnershipwithMagna
Developingtheir own
self-drivingcar technology
PartneringwithVolvoto
co-developa fleet
PartneringwithOfo and
Bluegogo,bikesoffered
withinDidi app
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis 31
Continuingto developtheir
ownride-sharingtechnology
Continuingto developtheir
ownride-sharingtechnology
Multimodal
Shared
KEY
BUILD
BUY
PARTNER
INVEST
An interesting dynamic is emerging among auto manufacturers, ride-sharing leaders, large tech companies and
startups to actively “invest” in the future transportation landscape, but because there is so much uncertainty,
companies are looking to hedge their bets by partnering, investing and acquiring across a number of different
verticals.
Future of Mobility
Carmakers?
32
Velodyne Lidar:$150M Series A
CivilMaps:$6.6M Seed
Autonomicacquisition
Argo AI acquisition
PartneringwithDaimleron
smartmobilitynetwork
PartneredwithMotivateon
theFord GoBikeprogram
Lyft:$1.7BSeriesH
Canvasacquisition
(vehicleleasingplatform)
BlackmoreSensors
Innoviz— solid-stateLiDAR
Collaboratingwithauto
supplierMagna
PartneringwithDaimleron
smartmobilitynetwork
PartneringwithDaimlerona
“JointMobilityService”
Purchased50 percentstakein
car2gorentalplatform
DriveNow:
$260M acquisition
Investing$1.1Bto develop
theirowntechnology
PartneringwithSoftBank
CruiseAutomation:
$1B acquisition
PartneringwithDaimleron
smartmobilitynetwork
PartneringwithZagster
bike-sharingplatform
Invested$500Min Lyft
Yi Wei Xing:SeriesA in
Chinesecar-sharingplatform
Developingtheir own
self-drivingcar technology
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis
Developingtheir own
self-drivingcar technology
Autonomous
Multimodal
Shared
It will be almost impossible for any one company to offer a full-stack solution, but control is something that everyone
is cautious about giving up. It might seem that OEMs would be in the best position, but the disciplines required in this
new high-tech era conflict with the more traditional OEM culture, while recruiting the best talent will be a challenge
without the right infrastructure and compensation structures.
A
KEY
BUILD
BUY
PARTNER
INVEST
Future of Mobility
Tech Giants?
33
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis
Lime:$335MSeriesC
Developingtheir own
technologythroughWaymo
PartneringwithChrysler
$1B investmentin Lyft
$1.5Binvestmentin
Indonesianride-hailing
companyGO-JEK
Developinga smartbike
calledDuBike
Partneringwithbus maker
KingLongUnitedAutomotive
PartneringwithMeituan-
Dianpingfor food delivery
Developing their own
technology, called Apollo
$196Minvestmentin Shouqi
Limousine& Chauffeur
Investmentin Uber for an
undisclosedamount
Developingcarpoolbusiness
calledGaodeMap
Developingin-caroperating
system— AliOS
PartneringwithChina’s
largestautomaker:SAIC
Motor
PartneringwithDongfeng
Peugeot-Citroën
Ofo:$2B acquisition
Investmentin SoutheastAsian
ride-hailingcompanyGrab
Autonomous
Multimodal
Shared
This leaves the US and Chinese tech giants. With their talent, organization, expertise and most importantly data
infrastructure, they have the best chance of tackling the technological hurdle of the future transportation paradigm. Who
succeeds?On one hand, you have Google with Waymo, clearly the leader in autonomous tech. On the other hand you
have Baidu and Alibaba, which primarily operatein a more supportive regulatory environment. It’s too closeto call.
A
KEY
BUILD
BUY
PARTNER
INVEST
Matt Trotter heads SVB’s Frontier Tech Group in San Francisco. Matt works with high-growth
companies that create highly disruptive technologies in the businesses of transportation,
industrials, aerospace, consumer electronics and semiconductors, with a focus on the
convergence of hardware, software and data.
Matt is passionate about his customers’ success, and it shows in the capital, connections and
strategic counsel he provides to support their growth in hardware and deep technology —
some of the most competitive business environments in the world. Matt is a graduate of
California Polytechnic State University, where he played varsity soccer and majored business
administration. Married and the father of an active young daughter, he still finds time to kick
the ball around in a Sunday men’s soccer league.
34
About the Author
Matt Trotter
Head of Frontier
Tech Sector
mtrotter@svb.com
Disclaimers
This material including, without limitation, to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is
based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which have not been independently verified by us,
and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax,
investment, legal or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific
professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or
recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.
Silicon Valley Bank UK Limited is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK (Company Number
12546585). Silicon Valley Bank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and
Prudential Regulation Authority (Firm Reference Number 543146).
Silicon Valley Bank Germany Branch is a branch of Silicon Valley Bank. Silicon Valley Bank, a public corporation with limited liability
(Aktiengesellschaft) under the laws of the U.S. federal state of California, with registered office in Santa Clara, California, U.S.A. is registered with the
California Secretary of State under No. C1175907, Chief Executive Officer (Vorstand): Gregory W Becker, Chairman of the Board of Directors
(Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender): Roger F Dunbar. Silicon Valley Bank Germany Branch with registered office in Frankfurt am Main is registered with the
local court of Frankfurt am Main under No. HRB 112038, Branch Directors (Geschäftsleiter): Oscar C Jazdowski, John K Peck.
Silicon Valley Bank is not authorized to undertake regulated activity in Canada and provides banking services from its regulated entities in the United
States and the United Kingdom.
©2019 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron
device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon
Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).
35
Future of Mobility
See complete disclaimers on previous page.
© 2019 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW
and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and
the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).
About Silicon Valley Bank
For more than 35 years, Silicon Valley Bank has helped innovative
companies and their investors move bold ideas forward, fast.
SVB provides targeted financial services and expertise through its
offices in innovation centers around the world. With commercial,
international and private banking services, SVB helps address the
unique needs of innovators.
#SVBFrontierTech
www.svb.com
@SVB_Financial
Silicon Valley Bank
@SVBFinancialGroup

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The Four Pillars of the Future Mobility Ecosystem

  • 1. Future of Mobility The technologies and trends driving innovation in the emerging mobility ecosystem SVB Frontier Tech Practice
  • 2. Future of Mobility 2 Executive Summary The global transportation industry is ripe for disruption, as new technologies, modes and platforms are emerging. The transportation industry is undergoing significant structural changes, brought about by a confluence of social, demographic, political, financial and technological forces. An emerging mobility ecosystem is bridging the gap between the digital and physical worlds, leveraging advances in fundamental hardware, artificial intelligence and communications. As a result of these rapid changes, the way people and goods move from point A to point B will consist of technology-enabled, shared, multimodal, electric and autonomous transportation. This report takes a deep dive into the forces driving these changes, the players involved and the effect that the emerging mobility paradigm will have on the industry and the economy.
  • 3. Report Highlights Future of Mobility 3 • If the global transportation industry were a country, it would be the third- largest economy in the world by annual revenue, behind only the US and China. • Although still in development, autonomous vehicle systems and hardware have received more than $20 billion in funding over the past decade. • By 2025, 25% of cars sold will have electric drivetrains, up from 5% today. • We expect maturation in electric vehicles in one to three years, shared and multimodal transportation in three to five years and autonomous vehicles in five to 10 years. • We predict that the battle among ride-sharing companies, carmakers and technology giants will result in each settling on partnering in its respective area of expertise.
  • 4. 4 The Transportation Industry Today: Poised for Incremental Change or Mass Disruption? 10 The Four Pillars of Mobility: The Future will be Shared, Multimodal, Electric and Autonomous. 12 Shared Transportation: Social and Capital Forces Shape a Shared Mobility Network. 16 Multimodal Transportation: A Seamless Mobility Platform Emerges, Enabled by the New and the Old. 20 Electric Vehicles: A Promising Future but Challenges Remain. 25 Autonomous Vehicles: Amid a Global Wave of Funding, Will the Technology Live Up to the Hype? 29 Who Will Own the Mobility Platform of the Future? How Key Stakeholders Are Placing Their Bets Today to Position Themselves for the Future. Contents Future of Mobility 4
  • 6. With $20.2 trillion in total assets, the global transportation industry is strongly tied to and influences many other major industries. Future of Mobility Transportation Is Big Business Gross Domestic Product of the Four Largest Economies vs. Global Transportation Revenues Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis If the global transportation industry werea country, it would be the third-largest economy in the world by annual revenue, behind only the US and China. Total Invested Capital in Transportation, by Sector — Trailing 10 Years 6 $0 $5T $10T $15T $20T $25T 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US Japan China Germany Transportation Note: For US, China and Germany, 2018 GDP data includes forecasted figure for Q4 2018. $6.96T Infrastructure – 3.3% Rail – 3.8% Road – 3.9% Ride-Sharing – 4.1% Commercial Transportation 4.2% Marine 5.2% Autonomous Vehicles 7.0% Energy Transportation 8.2% Logistics 8.4% Air – 8.5% Automotive – 12.3% All Other Transportation 31.1%
  • 7. Aging Infrastructure Lost Productivity Public Health Environmental Impact In 2017, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave the nation’s infrastructure an overall grade of D+ on its Infrastructure Report Card. Key infrastructure categories, including aviation, roads and transit, all received individual grades of D or lower.1 Traffic is expensive. In the US alone, traffic congestion cost cities and drivers $305 billion in 2017. Census data shows that the American commute is getting longer, and the longest commutes in the nation are also the fastest- growing.2 Nearly 40,000 people in the US die each year in transportation-related incidents. There are also hidden costs, as air pollution and contaminants from transportation are indirectly linked with respiratory and cardiovascular health issues.3 Twenty-two percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the transportation sector. Noise is known to have harmful effects on delicate ecosystems, and carbon monoxide emissions contribute to steadily decreasing air quality.4 Future of Mobility The World Is Ready for Change Source: (1) American Society of Civil Engineers, (2) INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard, (3) National Safety Council and (4) United States Environmental Protection Agency Our current transportation networks have served us well for a long time, but no one can deny that the system is strained. As the global population increases and cities become more densely populated, these problems will only get worse if nothing is done to address them. People around the world are ready for a new mobility paradigm — one that fits their digital lifestyle and alleviates the issues associated with our current transportation systems. 7
  • 8. Future of Mobility The Technology Has Arrived Source: McKinsey & Company and SVB analysis A confluence of technological advancements in various fields has allowed solutions to be developed to solve common problems in the transportation industry. From autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) to shared mobility platforms, new developments are happeningevery day. Aerospace 5G Internet of Things (IoT) Semiconductors Storage Automation Energy Electric Satellite Mobile Cloud 3D Printing Global Transportation Revolution The evolutionof the car is a perfect example of this greater technology-drivenphenomenon.For example, 90 percent of innovations and new features in the automotive industryare driven by softwareand electronics,which account for 35 to 40 percent of an average car’s productioncost. Advancesin drivetrain technology,lightweight materials, vehicle-to-vehiclecommunication and AI are the leading areasof innovation. 8
  • 9. Adoption Will Take Time Time Expectations Plateau will be reached in: 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years More than 10 years 4D Printing Neuromorphic Hardware Human Augmentation 5G Quantum Computing Volumetric Displays Smart Workspace Smart Robots IoT Platform Connected Home AVs Nanotube Electronics Delivery UAVs Augmented Reality Virtual Reality Innovation Trigger Peak Expectations Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity EVs Urban Mobility Ride-Sharing Platforms Passenger UAVs The technology is here, but it will take time to mature. Some transportation technologies are already online and will get more advanced with time, such as ride-sharingplatforms, personal electric vehicles (PEVs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Source: Gartner and SVB analysis Future of Mobility 9
  • 10. 265 373 415 466 419 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 $0 $5B $10B $15B $20B $25B $30B $35B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Invested Capital Number of Deals Future of Mobility A Global Funding Wave Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis Venture Financing in Transportation Technology: 2014–2018 By Q4, 2018 venture capital (VC) investment in transportation startups neared $35B and is on track to double the amount of fundraising a year ago. The bulk of this capital was directed toward ride-sharingplatforms such as Uber, Didi, Grab and Lyft, which have all raised $1B+ mega-rounds in 2018. At the same time, median pre-money valuations for transportation-related startups have almost doubled to $50M in 2018, up from $23M the year prior. Transportation Technology: Median Pre-Money Valuation and Median Deal Size 2015–2018 10 Asia North America Europe South America Africa and Middle East Deal Count $14M $19M $23M $50M $2M $3M $4M $6M $0 $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median Pre-Money Valuation Median Deal Size
  • 11. The Four Pillars of Mobility Future of Mobility 11
  • 12. Shared Multimodal Electric Autonomy The mobility platform of the future will build on the idea of distributed and shared mobility. Fewer people will own cars and instead will opt to use on- demand services, enabling greater vehicle-use efficiency and less congestion. The future of mobility will consist of a highly flexible platform comprising various modes of transportation, each providing a unique solution. Every leg of a journey will come with an array of transportation options. The first electric car was built in 1832, and we’ve come a long way since then. Today, EVs have better power, speed, and safety compared with gas-powered cars, and they’re better for the environment. Although still in development, AV systems and hardware are heavily researched and have received more than $10B of funding. Large automakers and tech giants are racing to build the first fully commercialized product. Future of Mobility What Are the Four Pillars of Mobility? *Data for all companies within each PitchBook vertical, for prior 10 years Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis There are four key areas in which innovation in transportation is taking place. The future mobility paradigm will consist of autonomous systems and powerful electric drivetrains across a wide variety of modes, most of which will be seamlessly shared, connected, safe, convenient, personalized and on-demand. Global Venture Capital Activity in Mobility* 12 Number of Startups: 242 Capital Invested: $58.0B Number of Deals: 574 Investors: 1,318 Largest Deal: $7.3B Number of Startups: 72 Capital Invested: $4.1B Number of Deals: 151 Investors: 362 Largest Deal: $621M Number of Startups: 448 Capital Invested: $24.7B Number of Deals: 986 Investors: 1,290 Largest Deal: $3.2B Number of Startups: 202 Capital Invested: $10.0B Number of Deals: 398 Investors: 848 Largest Deal: $1.0B
  • 14. Future of Mobility The Sharing Economy Hits Mobility Source: Goldman Sachs, Dalia Research and Statista Shared transportation is being driven by demographic and social forces and technology. Some would argue that the biggest innovation in mobility was the invention of the smartphone. The success of ride-sharing companies like Uber, Lyft and Didi is a testament to that statement. Technology has also made sharing simple: from knowing when the next bus is coming, paying for small transactions effortlessly and being able to rent a car (or a seat) quickly, easily and cheaply. 18% 49% 28% 35% 13% 18% 13% 17% 7% 5% 7% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Global Millennials Baby Boomers Generation X 0M 10M 20M 30M 40M 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 51% 46% 38% 35% 33% 30% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% China Mexico Russia Spain Brazil US UK Percentage of People Who Use Ride-Sharing Services by Country 14 Willingness to Car-Share by Generation and Region Number of People Worldwide Who Share Vehicles
  • 15. Three and a half billion peoplearound the globe live in cities — and the United Nations says that the world population will double by 2050. Growing urban density is resulting in more “megacities” — thosehaving a population greater than 10 million. Already, there are 47 megacities around the world, with 15 in China and 31 elsewhere in Asia. Future of Mobility Increasing Urbanization Will Push Transportation to Its Limits Source: UN World Urbanization Data and Wikipedia 0B 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B 6B 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Global Urban and Rural Population: 1950–2050 Urban Population Rural Population The solution to the growingissues surrounding urban density is multipronged and includes a mix of affordable public transportation and efficient ride-sharingtechnology. With increasingurban density, the role of ride- sharing technology to reduce congestion has never been greater. While AVs garner a lot of attention in the media, issues with traffic will continue to increase globally if AVs do not have robust ride-sharing capabilities. 15
  • 16. Future of Mobility SoftBank Bets Big on Ride-Sharing SoftBank Investments in Shared Transportation Companies: 2014–2018 SoftBank: Breakdown of Shared Transportation by Investment by Country The Japanese conglomerate SoftBank has made waves by writingbig checks. It has made multibillion-dollar investments in ride-sharingcompanies around the globe, including China, India and Brazil, while the number of companies is concentrated in the United States. 16 $0 $1B $2B $3B $4B $5B $6B $7B $8B $9B $10B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Other Ride-Sharing Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis SoftBank: Breakdown of Shared Transportation by Company by Country US Brazil China Singapore India 7% 1% 41% 13% 9% 43% 14% 14% 14% 14% US Brazil China Singapore India
  • 18. Future of Mobility What Is Multimodal Transportation? The concept of multimodal transportation is not new. In fact, much of freight transportation is “intermodal,” meaning multiplemodes of transportation are used without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. The future of mobility will take this concept and apply it to human transportation. Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis 18 0–5 Miles 5–15 Miles 15+ Miles 60% of trips in the US 25% of trips in the US 15% of trips in the US Electric bikes, scooters, skateboards Ride-hailing Car-sharing, public transport, aerial transport Micro-Mobility Medium Distance Long Distance
  • 19. Future of Mobility Millennials and Mobility: A Generational Shift The millennial generation is the largest in US history and has unique mobility preferences. Millennials prefer the most practical transportation method for each trip. According to the study Millennials and Mobility, nearly 70 percent of millennials use multiple travel options several times per week. Car-sharing, bike-sharing and public transportation are all on the rise when compared with car ownership. This is largely due to smartphone applications, which allow transit users to be increasingly spontaneous and flexible with their travel decisions. 0M 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M 60M 70M 80M 90M 2016 2024 2032 2040 2048 US Population by Generation: 2016–2050 70% 46% 87% 25% 69% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16-Year-Olds with Licenses 19-Year-Olds with Licenses 1983 2014 Millennials Who Use Multimodal Transportation Several Times per Week Teen Driver’s License Rates: 1983 vs. 2014 Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent Source: Pew Research, American Public Transportation Association, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute and SVB analysis 19
  • 20. Future of Mobility 20 The Fastest Unicorns Ride Scooters Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis Four unicorns have rapidly emerged in the micro-mobility space: Ofo and Hellobike, both China-based bike-sharing platforms, and Bird Rides and Lime, US-based scooter-sharing services. Electric scooter startup Bird is the fastest company to reach a valuation of more than $1B. One of many scooter startups currently sweeping the US, Bird was last valued at $2.3B after closing $450M in Series C1 fundingin June 2018. Speed of Growth Based on Months from Founding Date to Achieving Unicorn Status Months from Founding Date + +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Electric Scooter or Bike-Sharing Company Other Note: Circle size represents company valuation at time of reaching unicorn status. A unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at more than $1B.
  • 22. 0.2M 0.3M 0.5M 0.8M 1.3M 2.1M 0.4M 0.7M 1.3M 2.M 3.3M 5.4M 0M 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 Worldwide EV productionhas been steadily climbing. On the supply side, the cost of manufacturing EVs has dropped significantly due to technological improvements in the manufacturing process. On the demand side, EV adoptionis picking up as fuel costs and environmental concerns weigh on consumers. Furthermore, regulatory benchmarks are requiring automakers to manufacture more EVs. By 2025, 25 percent of cars sold will require electric drivetrains, up from 5 percent today. Future of Mobility Less Is More for EVs Source: Goldman Sachs, EV Volumes, and SVB analysis One catalyst driving innovationin EV technology is the fact that EVs have just one-third the amount of parts of conventional vehicles, which enables EV startups to compete with larger auto manufacturers on pricing. Number of EVs Produced and Sold Worldwide: 2013–2018 Average Number of Parts: Conventional Vehicles vs. EVs EV Production EV Sales EVs Conventional Vehicles 22
  • 23. $23M $23M $13M $46M $70M 0M $50M $100M $150M $200M $250M $300M $350M $400M 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EV Activity Is Sparking Future of Mobility Venture Investment in EV Startups: 2015–2018 EV Startups: Pre-Money Valuation Ranges, 25th to 75th Percentile, 2014–2018 Investment activity in EV and battery technology has gained momentum in recent years as regulations require manufacturers to meet EV production targets and consumers gradually adopt hybrid and electric vehicles. Median pre-money valuations have climbed significantly in the past two years as venture and corporate investors in the US and China place significant bets on market leaders. Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis 23 82 86 93 108 118 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 $0 $1B $2B $3B $4B $5B $6B $7B $8B $9B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Other EV Startups Deal Count Median Valuation
  • 24. $660M $321M $711M $1.4B $38M $79M $192M $217M $767M $2.3B $4.5B $6.4B $0 $1B $2B $3B $4B $5B $6B $7B 2015 2016 2017 2018 China Leads the Pack in EVs Future of Mobility EV Sales Forecast by Global Region Population of Five Largest Cities: China vs. US 12.7M 12.9M 14.0M 19.6M 23.4M 1.6M 2.3M 2.7M 4.0M 8.6M NewYork LosAngeles Chicago Houston Philadelphia Shanghai Beijing Chengdu Tianjin Guangzhou Global Venture Investment in EVs: 2014–2018 UnitedStates China 0M 5M 10M 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Number of Cars Rest of the World Carmakers Europe With about two-thirds of the 3 million EVs worldwide made and used in China, it’s clear that China is emerging as a global leader in EV development and adoption. This is no coincidence; the Chinese government has created a supportive regulatory environment and provided significant funding for EV startups. Source: The World Bank, Bloomberg, PitchBook and SVB analysis 25M 15M 5M 5M 15M 25M 24 0M 5M 10M 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Number of Cars Chinese Carmakers 0M 2M 4M 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Number of Cars US Carmakers 7M 3M 6M
  • 26. Future of Mobility The Technology of Autonomy Source: MIT Technology Review and SVB analysis The technology behind autonomy is complex, consisting of a patchworkof sensors and systems that allow the vehicle to receive and react to information from its surroundings. Progress in AV technology is the result of years of engineering and computer science research bridging various fields, as well as robust funding from venture and corporate investors. Sensors and Cameras Data about the vehicle’s surroundings are captured by onboard sensors and cameras, allowing precise movements in environments that are constantly changing. Machine Learning AI systems improve vehicle performance without the need for continual reprogramming, aided by frequent and automatic software updates via the cloud. Local Data Processors Onboard computers with specialized chipsets and software automatically perform real-time calculations with terabytes of data, enabling critical decision-making in milliseconds. AI Deep-learning algorithms enable the vehicle to quickly adapt to changing circumstances and continuously learn from new environments and situations. High-Performance GPS Geosynchronous and low- earth orbit satellites track location down to a few feet, helping guide the vehicle to its destination. Connectivity All the systems onboard are networked, communicating with other vehicles and surrounding objects. This allows for adjustments due to changing weather or road conditions. LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging technology senses traffic and vehicle brake lights. These sensors can even detect road conditions based on changes in the amount of light being detected on the road. Millimeter-Wave Radar Millimeter-wave radar uses radio waves to determine the presence, distance and velocity of surrounding objects. Cloud-Based Data Processing Real-time telemetric data is hosted on cloud- based servers, allowing the vehicle to process vehicle speeds and surrounding-car proximity. 26
  • 27. Future of Mobility Funding in Autonomy Dominated by Large Rounds Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis Global Venture Investment in Autonomous Vehicle Companies, except UBER: 2014–2018 In 2015, Uber first made its interest in self-driving cars public when it hired 40 researchers and scientists from the National Robotics Engineering Center at Carnegie Mellon University. Following Uber’s decision to invest in autonomy, the company raised nearly $10B in venture investment, and several AV startups followed suit with massive rounds of their own, making rounds less than $100M seem relatively small. 27 19 36 53 107 118 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 $0 $500M $1.0B $1.5B $2.0B $2.5B $3.0B $3.5B $4.0B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capital Invested Pony.ai Zoox Xpeng NIO Other AV Startups Deal Count
  • 28. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026+ Level 5 Level 5 Level 5 Level 5 Level 5 Level 4 Level 4 Level 4 Level 5 Level 4 Level 4 Level 5 Level 3 Level 0 No Automation Level 1 Driver Assistance Level 2 Partial Automation Level 3 ConditionalAutomation Level 4 High Automation Level 5 Full Automation Future of Mobility 28 The Race Is On Legacy automakers are racing to releasea commercial AV. Many have announced their timelines publicly, but who will be first? Source: Emerj and SVB analysis KEY
  • 29. Introduced Passed House Passed Senate To President Became Law Introduced Passed House Passed Senate To President Became Law The State of AV Regulations Law Passed Executive Order Pending All Failed None Considered A regulatory environment that supports both consumers and companies is critical to the continued development of AVs. Federal regulations concerning AVs have been introduced, while state legislatures are passing laws that vary greatly from state to state. These distinctions will affect how states license AVs going forward, and they will set the stage for large differences in AV adoption across the US. American Vision for Safer Transportation Through Advancement of Revolutionary Technologies Act* Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research in Vehicle Evolution Act* AV START Act SELF DRIVE Act • Establishes that federal government, not states, will regulate AVs • Manufacturerscan’t sellor in any other way introduceAVs unlesstheyhavea data privacy plan • Establishes a federal advisory council onAVs • Requires “safety assessment certifications” bymanufacturers • Prohibits sellingAVs unless manufacturerhas a detailed cybersecurity plan Future of Mobility *Progress as of Q4 2018 Source: Congress.gov, National Conference of State Legislatures, Brookings Institute and SVB analysis 29 Regulation by US State • Addressesconflictswith current federal vehicle safety standards (e.g.,oldregulationsthat requirea steeringwheel) • Requiresmanufacturersto produce safety evaluation reports • Establishes a technical advisory board
  • 30. Who Will Own the Mobility Platform of the Future? Future of Mobility 30
  • 31. Future of Mobility Ride-Sharing Companies? A A A Autonomous A Lime:$335MSeriesC JumpBike:$250M acquisition Developingtheir own self-drivingcar technology Otto:$680M acquisition PartneringwithNASA to developUberAIR PartneringwithOEM Volvo Continuingto developtheir ownride-sharingtechnology Motivate:$250M acquisition PartneringwithWaymo, Google’sself-drivingcar division PartneringwithFord Buildingself-drivingtechin partnershipwithMagna Developingtheir own self-drivingcar technology PartneringwithVolvoto co-developa fleet PartneringwithOfo and Bluegogo,bikesoffered withinDidi app Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis 31 Continuingto developtheir ownride-sharingtechnology Continuingto developtheir ownride-sharingtechnology Multimodal Shared KEY BUILD BUY PARTNER INVEST An interesting dynamic is emerging among auto manufacturers, ride-sharing leaders, large tech companies and startups to actively “invest” in the future transportation landscape, but because there is so much uncertainty, companies are looking to hedge their bets by partnering, investing and acquiring across a number of different verticals.
  • 32. Future of Mobility Carmakers? 32 Velodyne Lidar:$150M Series A CivilMaps:$6.6M Seed Autonomicacquisition Argo AI acquisition PartneringwithDaimleron smartmobilitynetwork PartneredwithMotivateon theFord GoBikeprogram Lyft:$1.7BSeriesH Canvasacquisition (vehicleleasingplatform) BlackmoreSensors Innoviz— solid-stateLiDAR Collaboratingwithauto supplierMagna PartneringwithDaimleron smartmobilitynetwork PartneringwithDaimlerona “JointMobilityService” Purchased50 percentstakein car2gorentalplatform DriveNow: $260M acquisition Investing$1.1Bto develop theirowntechnology PartneringwithSoftBank CruiseAutomation: $1B acquisition PartneringwithDaimleron smartmobilitynetwork PartneringwithZagster bike-sharingplatform Invested$500Min Lyft Yi Wei Xing:SeriesA in Chinesecar-sharingplatform Developingtheir own self-drivingcar technology Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis Developingtheir own self-drivingcar technology Autonomous Multimodal Shared It will be almost impossible for any one company to offer a full-stack solution, but control is something that everyone is cautious about giving up. It might seem that OEMs would be in the best position, but the disciplines required in this new high-tech era conflict with the more traditional OEM culture, while recruiting the best talent will be a challenge without the right infrastructure and compensation structures. A KEY BUILD BUY PARTNER INVEST
  • 33. Future of Mobility Tech Giants? 33 Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis Lime:$335MSeriesC Developingtheir own technologythroughWaymo PartneringwithChrysler $1B investmentin Lyft $1.5Binvestmentin Indonesianride-hailing companyGO-JEK Developinga smartbike calledDuBike Partneringwithbus maker KingLongUnitedAutomotive PartneringwithMeituan- Dianpingfor food delivery Developing their own technology, called Apollo $196Minvestmentin Shouqi Limousine& Chauffeur Investmentin Uber for an undisclosedamount Developingcarpoolbusiness calledGaodeMap Developingin-caroperating system— AliOS PartneringwithChina’s largestautomaker:SAIC Motor PartneringwithDongfeng Peugeot-Citroën Ofo:$2B acquisition Investmentin SoutheastAsian ride-hailingcompanyGrab Autonomous Multimodal Shared This leaves the US and Chinese tech giants. With their talent, organization, expertise and most importantly data infrastructure, they have the best chance of tackling the technological hurdle of the future transportation paradigm. Who succeeds?On one hand, you have Google with Waymo, clearly the leader in autonomous tech. On the other hand you have Baidu and Alibaba, which primarily operatein a more supportive regulatory environment. It’s too closeto call. A KEY BUILD BUY PARTNER INVEST
  • 34. Matt Trotter heads SVB’s Frontier Tech Group in San Francisco. Matt works with high-growth companies that create highly disruptive technologies in the businesses of transportation, industrials, aerospace, consumer electronics and semiconductors, with a focus on the convergence of hardware, software and data. Matt is passionate about his customers’ success, and it shows in the capital, connections and strategic counsel he provides to support their growth in hardware and deep technology — some of the most competitive business environments in the world. Matt is a graduate of California Polytechnic State University, where he played varsity soccer and majored business administration. Married and the father of an active young daughter, he still finds time to kick the ball around in a Sunday men’s soccer league. 34 About the Author Matt Trotter Head of Frontier Tech Sector mtrotter@svb.com
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