Top8 mobile phone predictions for 2009

2009 Top 8 Product Trends of China Mobile Phone Market 2008/12/28 胡洋 [email_address]

Trend #1: Large Screen + Full Touch Screen Screen Size Development Trend in 2008 ,[object Object],Source: Thinkbank Market Research & Consulting retail tracking, 2008 Large-sized screen (2.5’+), +8% Mid-sized screen (2.0-2.4’), +10% Small-sized screen (<2.0’), -18% 47% 38% 15% 65% 28% 7%

Trend #1: Large Screen + Full Touch Screen ,[object Object],[object Object],*Source: Thinkbank Market Research & Consulting, Rretail Tracking Panel ™ , 2008 **Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 What’s your request in terms of screen size when you are going to buy a new phone? Screen size Penetration* (2008) Purchase Intention (%)** Change(+/-%) Below 2.0’ 55% 11%  44% 2.0’~2.4 32% 36%  4% 2.5’~2.8’ 8% 31%  23% 3.0’ & above 3% 22%  19% Total 100% 100% /

Trend #1: Large Screen + Full Touch Screen ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],LG Apple Samsung KC910 KS200 2.8’@240*320 3.0’@240*400 3.5’@480*360 3.2’@240*400 LG i908E Nokia 5800XM 3.2’@640*360 iPhone

Trend #2: Growing Demand for Smart Phones ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Thinkbank Retail Tracking Panel ™ Smartphone ASP Development Smartphone M-size Development In RMB In mln units Source: Thinkbank Retail Tracking Panel ™

Trend #2: Growing Demand for Smart Phones ,[object Object],*Source: Thinkbank Market Research & Consulting, Rretail Tracking Panel ™ , 2008 **Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 How likely are you going to buy a smart phone when you want to buy yourself a new mobile phone next time? Price Tier(RMB) Smartphone Penetration*(2008) Purchase Intention (%)** Gap (%) Below 1,000 0.5% 2.5%  2.0% 1,000-1,499 2.6% 14.7%  12.1% 1,500-1,999 26.2% 32.4%  6.2% 2,000-2,499 41.7% 47.8%  6.1% 2,500-2,999 47.3% 54.3%  7.0% Above 3,000 69.4% 77.4%  8.0%

Trend #2: Growing Demand for Smart Phones ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],琦基 i8 ： 1400RMB 琦基 i7 ： 1500RMB

Trend #3: Strong Demand for Mobile App & Services ,[object Object],[object Object],*Source:Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 **Source: mobile app & services quarterly in-depth interview, June & October 2008 Top 10 Most Needed Mobile Application & Service / by Category # Mobile app & services Consumer Interest (%)* Expert Rating** 1 Web page browsing 67.5%  2 Instant messaging 65.4%  3 GPS navigation and LBS 63.0%  4 Mobile gaming 50.2%  5 Music, video/TV related services 44.2%  6 Life assistant / healthcare 36.6%  7 Biz & personal productivity 32.8%  8 Security related services 29.7%  9 Mobile payment / shopping 29.0%  10 Social networking service / Blog 19.8% 

Trend #3: Strong Demand for Mobile App & Services ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trend #4: CMMB Mobile TV Phone is Going to Take off Before Other Mobile TV Standards in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trend #4: CMMB Mobile TV Phone is Going to Take off Before Other Mobile TV Standards in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5-10RMB Like to have. I don’t care Dislike, don’t need it I have no idea Interested in it very much! <5RMB FREE 10-15RMB 15-20RMB >20RMB Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user CATI survey, Sep. 2008, base=997 Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user CATI survey, Sep. 2008, base=997 Which of the following statement describe your interest to mobile TV services? How much would you like to pay for monthly subscription for mobile TV services?

Trend #4: CMMB Mobile TV Phone is Going to Take off Before Other Mobile TV Standards in China ,[object Object],[object Object],Tianyu CMMB Mobile TV ZTE CMMB Mobile TV

Trend #5: Phones Specially Designed for Children & Elderly Are in Great Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],China Population Distribution by Age Tier Source: China 5th nationwide population census, 2000 Age tier Population (mln) Percentage (%) 1-14 yrs 265 20.3% 15-59 yrs 897 68.7% 60+ yrs 144 11.0% Total 1,306 100.0%

Trend #5: Phones Specially Designed for Children & Elderly Are in Great Need ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 How easy / difficult do you feel when you find a mobile phone for your children? How easy / difficult do you feel to when you find a mobile phone for your parents? Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 Description Percentage(%) Very difficult to find 49.5% Somehow difficult to find 21.3% Just so so 12.4% Somehow easy to find 9.7% Easy to find 7.1% Total 100% Description Percentage(%) Very difficult to find 54.6% Somehow difficult to find 13.7% Just so so 16.4% Somehow easy to find 9.7% Easy to find 5.6% Total 100%

Trend #5: Phones Specially Designed for Children & Elderly People Are in Great Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Av sales: 20K/M units in 08H2 A7711 A7713 Tianyu New Elderly Phone Font size: 32, handwriting, magnifier, big screen, loud RT, FM loudspeaker

Trend #6: Operator Customized Phone to Surge ,[object Object],[object Object],Bundle Sales TARGET by Operator Bundle M-size Trend 08 vs. 09 +200% Sum of target Unit: million Unit: million

Trend #7: WiFi-enabled Phones Are in Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 What is your interest level for built-in WiFi phones? Interest level Percentage(%) Interested in WiFi very much 33.3% It’s better to have WiFi 17.6% I don’t care about WiFi / have no idea 16.7% I don’t need WiFi that much 12.8% I don’t need WiFi at all 19.6% Total 100%

Trend #7: WiFi-enabled Phones Are in Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trend #8: Mobile Device Convergence & Functionality Upgrading ,[object Object],[object Object],Convergence & Upgrading Integrate more and more functions of consumer electronics into mobile phone. Mobile phone is becoming the portal for mobile life. Upgrading functions such camera pixels, device portability as well as UX of internet access, music playback, etc. 1 2

Trend #8: Mobile Device Convergence & Functionality Upgrading ,[object Object],Built-in Camera Phone Penetration Rate Trend by Pixel 2.0M and below 3.0M & above Source: Thinkbank Market Research & Consulting, Rretail Tracking Panel ™ , 2008

Trend #8: Mobile Device Convergence & Functionality Upgrading ,[object Object],[object Object],What are the functions / service you are looking forward on your mobile phone? GPS penetration trend Mobile TV penetration trend Source: Thinkbank mPanel ™ user survey, base=1585, 2008 Functions / Services Percentage (%) Music player 85.3% GPS navigation device 63.7% TV set 52.9% PMP 46.1% Computer 35.3% Game console 33.3%

Q&A! Thinkbank & Company 博思咨询  新产品研究部北京市朝阳区东四环中路远洋国际中心 C 座 Contact US +86 10 59081096/97/99 +86 10 5908 1095 [email_address]

Top8 mobile phone predictions for 2009

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Top8 mobile phone predictions for 2009