Small Cell State of the Nation presentation given by ThinkSmallCell at Small Cell Forum stand of Mobile World Congress 2016. Compares the commercial success of Carrier Wi-Fi, Small Cells, DAS and Remote Radio Heads with discussion of how the market is likely to evolve.

1. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Small
Cells
State
of
the
Na.on
David
Chambers
Senior
Analyst

2. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
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3. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
3G/LTE
will
predominate
by
2020
Cisco
VNI
Feb
2016

4. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Global
transi.on
towards
LTE
Ericsson
Mobility
Report
2015
4GAmericas
Sep
2015
North
America
has
highest
share
of
LTE
subscribers
(198M
=
47%)
China
has
highest
number
of
LTE
subs
(>
380M
=
28%)
Europe
catching
up
VoLTE
follows
slowly

5. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Network
Capacity
Journey
LTE
+
new
spectrum
Refarm
2G
-­‐>
3G
Enable
Wi-­‐Fi
offload
at
home/office
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
3G/4G
Enterprise
Cellular
Urban
LTE
Small
Cell
Wi-­‐Fi
Homespot
LTE-­‐U/LAA
VoLTE
Refarm
3G
-­‐>
4G
VoWi-­‐Fi
Time
LTE
only
Enterprise/
Residen.al
MuLTeFire

6. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Where’s
the
money?
Cellular
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
Operator
Revenues
~$1
Trillion
<$0.001
Trillion
Largest
Operators
(Revenue)
$91
Billion
(China
Mobile)
$87
Billion
(Verizon
Wireless)
$0.12
Billion
(Boingo)
$0.08
Billion
(iPass)
Network
Equipment
Spend
$43
Billion
(Excludes
professional
services)
$0.6
Billion
(Infone.cs
2014)
94%
4%
2%
RAN
DAS
Small
Cell
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
Revenues
are
<0.1%
of
cellular
Capital
Spend
is
1.4%
of
cellular
Total
Wi-­‐Fi
market
size
$14.8
Billion

7. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
How
Wi-­‐Fi
Offload
differs
• True
Wi-­‐Fi
offload
may
be
<5%[1]
– Scenarios
where
user
unaware
traffic
carried
over
Wi-­‐Fi
and
uses
as
if
cellular
service
• Voice
over
Wi-­‐Fi
capacity
limited
– Priori.sa.on
of
voice
unable
to
maintain
quality
for
~6
calls/access
point
– Heavy
home
data
streaming
can
affect
voice
calls
– Wi-­‐Fi
has
10%
voice
capacity
per
MHz
compared
to
LTE
(Cisco[2])
[1]
Amdocs
State
of
the
RAN
2016
[2]
Cisco
at
Cambridge
Wireless,
ThinkSmallCell
report
Jan
2014
• Devices
ac.vely
use
Wi-­‐Fi
differently
to
cellular
– Defer
photo
uploads,
s/w
downloads
to
Wi-­‐Fi
• Users
ac.vely
differen.ate
Wi-­‐Fi
availability
– Choose
to
consume
more
video
when
on
Wi-­‐Fi,
for
cost
or
speed
– As
a
“connec.on
of
last
resort”

8. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Wi-­‐Fi:
State
of
the
Na.on
Residen5al
Enterprise/Staff
Venues/Public
Urban
Outdoor
Massively
deployed,
mostly
by
fixed
BB
and
Cable
Variable
service
quality,
growing
demand
and
complexity
Massively
deployed,
mostly
by
independent
SIs
Robust
service,
.ghtly
secured;
poor
mobility
Widely
deployed,
ouen
by
local
independent
SIs
Variable
service
quality
&
security;
poor
mobility,
lacks
resilience
Municipal
schemes
commercially
dubious
viability
Variable
service
quality
&
security
FON
opening
access
to
wide
customer
base.
Unlikely
to
interwork
with
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
Commercial
conflict
between
Carrier
Wi-­‐
Fi/Passpoint
&
direct
customer
service
Passpoint
would
be
key
for
wider
take-­‐
up

9. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
LTE
Features
for
Capacity
Gain
Radio
Feature
Capacity
Gain
Dependencies
Device
Sync
Latency
Evolu.on
NAICS
6-­‐10%
✔
✔
✔
MIMO
4x2
MIMO
23%
4x4
MIMO
77%
✔
Intra-­‐site
CoMP
10-­‐25%
✔
Small
Cells
3
x
ePico
350%
eICIC/FeICIC
320%
✔
✔
✔
Smart
FeICIC
350%
✔
✔
✔
Dual
Connec.vity
32%
✔
✔
✔
LTE-­‐U
200%
✔
Mul.-­‐Sector
6
Sector
80%
Broadcas.ng
eMBMS
Service
dependent
✔
✔
Source:
Erol
Hepsaydir,
Three
UK,
HetNet
World
2015

10. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Small
Cells:
State
of
the
Na.on
Residen5al
Enterprise
Urban
Rural
Few
new
deployments
but
some
surprises
(T-­‐Mobile
USA)
Millions
embedded
at
Free
France,
saving
spectrum/roaming
fees
Most
lucra.ve
segment.
Split
between
small/med
and
med/large
Growing
credibility
for
larger
buildings
Technically
viable
but
held
back
by
logis.cs,
planning
vs
alterna.ves
Likely
to
be
LTE
only,
targewed
zones
Increased
interest
although
small
part
of
total
market
Higher
RF
power
and
3G/LTE
required
Poten.al
for
up.ck
with
4G
only
VoLTE
3G/LTE
important
today,
LTE
for
future
Neutral
host
Logis.cs
and
3rd
party
deployment
Regulatory
drive
for
coverage
targets

11. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
DAS:
State
of
the
Na.on
Residen5al
Enterprise/Staff
Venues/Public
Urban
Outdoor
Rarely
found
except
in
some
larger
apartment
complexes/
mixed
use
buildings
Larger
buildings,
typically
2G/3G
Newer
systems
incorporate
LTE
Mul.-­‐operator
Compa.bility
with
macro
networks
High
capacity
ODAS
where
fibre
plen.ful
Allows
neutral
hosts
to
address
urban
zones
Would
require
alterna.ve
product
architecture
Upgrading
to
LTE
considered
expensive
LTE-­‐U/LAA
less
appropriate
Specialist
engineering,
ongoing
evolu.on
Competes
with
RRH
from
RAN
vendors

12. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Remote
Radio
Heads
• “Distributed
basesta.ons”
including
RRH
and
similar
(e.g.
Radio
DOT,
Lampsite)
• Brings
radio
heads
back
into
scope
of
RAN
equipment
vendors
Benefits
• Compa.ble
with
macrocell
layer
(where
present)
• Compa.ble
with
exis.ng
opera.onal
processes
Disadvantages
• Underlays
3rd
party
macrocells
in
some
regions
• Processes
may
need
to
differ
• Typically
locked
to
single
network
operator

13. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Enterprise
Wireless
Choices
Mul.-­‐Operator
Single
Operator*
*Mul.-­‐Operator
possible
via
MORAN/
MOCN
or
installing
parallel/duplicate
kit
Wi-­‐Fi
Small
Cell
RRH
DAS
MuLTeFire
Small
Cell

14. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Neutral
Hosts
become
arbiter
• Aggregate
large
numbers
of
small
installa.ons
• Connect
to
mul.ple
operators
…etc.

15. ©
2016
ThinkSmallCell
Ltd.
Take-­‐aways
• Wi-­‐Fi
– Cordless
service
inside
the
home/office
– No
money
in
Carrier
Wi-­‐Fi
today
• Mobile
Capacity
=
LTE
+
Small
Cells
– 3G/4G
mul.-­‐mode
indoor
first
– VoLTE
when
mature
• Growing
focus
on
Enterprise
– Shared
costs
with
building
owners
– Neutral
host
business
model