Caroline Gabriel of Rethink Research and Kyung Mun of Mobile Experts present their latest five year forecasts for the Small Cell Industry.

1. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
ThinkSmallCell Webinar Series
Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers
Founder and Senior Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel
Head of Research
Rethink Technology
Research
Kyung Mun
Senior Analyst
Mobile Experts
Dec 2016

2. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Agenda
§ IntroducMon, David Chambers, ThinkSmallCell
§ Analyst Forecasts and AssumpMons
§ Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research
§ Kyung Mun, Mobile Experts
§ QuesMon and Answer Session
§ Conclusion

3. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Average Wireless ConnecMon Speed
Average worldwide data rates measured by user devices
Source: Opensignal
2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HSPA LTE Wi-Fi
4.31
6.52
8.77
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HSPA LTE Wi-Fi
4.31
6.52
8.77
3.3
17.4
10.8
2014
2016

4. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Introducing some new choices
LWA, LWIP Wi-Fi AggregaMon boost LTE
and Wi-Fi in parallel
CompaMble handsets and some core
network equipment
CBRS Standard LTE at 3.5GHz
Full cellular service as
standalone/roaming
Dynamically allocated spectrum
from central database server
US only scheme for now
LAA Augments LTE licensed with
modified LTE at 5GHz
Boosts download capacity
New physical layer chips
Listen-Before-Talk requires local
intelligence, smaller cells
eLAA Adds uplink to LAA at 5GHz Same as LAA but bi-direcMonal
MulteFire Modified LTE at 5GHz
Downlink and uplink
Can be independent of
cellular network
Same as eLAA

5. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Analyst Viewpoint
Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers
Founder and Senior Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel
Head of Research
Rethink Research
Kyung Mun
Senior Analyst
Mobile Experts

6. Small cell
deployment
outlook
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions of new units deployed per year
Residential Enterprise private Enterprise public
Urban public Rural and remote
Rethink methodology
Highest growth (79% CAGR)
in urban
Density driving new
ecosystem
Tipping points have been
later than expected (2015
forecast)
Enterprise trends
New deployments of small cells by environment
Source Rethink Technology Research 2016

7. The impact of
new spectrum
CBRS in US and
3.5 GHz elsewhere
LTE in unlicensed and
5G dynamic spectrum
New licensed bands and
mmWave
All these are focused on
density
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Licensed sub-6
GHz band
Unlicensed CBRS and 3.5
GHz
6 GHz to 20
GHz
Above 20 GHz
% New deployments
2017 2021
% of new small cell deployments by spectrum band.
Source: Rethink Technology Research 2016

8. Path to 5G
Long survival for LTE
NTT Docomo
Deutsche Telekom
Variable timescales for 5G
Leading use cases – fixed
wireless, large events
45% of MNOs will wait
after 2023 to make first
moves
But definitive 5G
elements will start earlier
– C-RAN, density, MEC
Many of these start in small
cell layer, and will reshape it
RETHINK TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH 2016
8
79
69
47
16
13
45
5
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5G radio Dense HetNet C-RAN and MEC
% of MNOs
Before 2020 2020-2023 2024 and later
% of MNOs planning to embark on 5G and HetNet.
Source: Rethink

9. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Analyst Viewpoint
Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers
Founder and Senior Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel
Head of Research
Rethink Research
Kyung Mun
Senior Analyst
Mobile Experts

10. Small Cell Shipment Forecast

11. Carriers prefer unlicensed LTE

12. Unlicensed spectrum provides lower
“cost per bit” unit economics

13. Increasing Use of Unlicensed LTE APs

14. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Audience Poll

15. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Q&A Session
Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers
Founder and Senior Analyst
ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel
Head of Research
Rethink Research
Kyung Mun
Senior Analyst
Mobile Experts

16. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.
Followup
• Find a wide range of insights and informaMon
– www.thinksmallcell.com
– Sign up for our newsleber
– Contact us regarding markeMng and white papers
• Contact either of our analysts for followup
– Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research
– Kyung Mun, Mobile Experts