2. Disclaimer
This report was produced for the benefit of all parties interested and involved in the pet industry, but its contents are for informational purposes
only. The opinions expressed reflect our analysis as of May 31, 2023, unless noted otherwise, and is subject to change. While the information is
from sources we consider reliable, we make no warranty of its accuracy. We offer this report to anyone free of charge. However, its contents are
property of Cascadia Capital, LLC except where third party data has been cited and should not be reproduced without our expressed written
permission. We appreciate your adherence to this policy.
Bryan Jaffe
Managing Director
Cascadia Capital, LLC
bjaffe@cascadiacapital.com
John Gulvezan
Vice President
Cascadia Capital, LLC
jgulvezan@cascadiacapital.com
2
3. Executive Summary
3
Source: APPA, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CapitalIQ, Packaged Facts
The pet industry produced another strong growth year in 2022, but all signs point to decelerating fundamentals as YoY growth declined off the COVID-19 apex
• Industry growth was elevated across reporting platforms – APPA @ 10.8%, Packaged Facts @ 9.5%, Personal Consumption Expenditures @ 8.6%
- Growth rate reflected much harder comp period, which suggests declining growth rate in isolation is not all that concerning
• However, industry growth in 2022 almost universally attributable to price with little-to-no benefit from volume, a fact pattern that has continued in 2023
- CPI growth versus Packaged Facts growth rates for 2022 – pet food: 10.2% vs. 15%, pet supplies 9.2% vs. 6.5%, veterinary services 8.8% vs. 4.5%
• According to the APPA the number of pet owning households declined from 70% in 2021 (90.5M households) to 66% in 2022 (89.6M households)
- We believe this validates our ownership thesis – that while acquisition was elevated through COVID-19, the lapping of subsidies and renter
protection caused ownership retrenchment from older generations and more economically sensitive demographics
• Sources are projecting meaningfully slower growth for the industry in 2023, albeit robust relative to other consumer segments
- We believe these estimates are conservative as younger generations with a spend first propensity continue to assert their control on the category
- Our view that the industry is bifurcating into a super-premium market and an economy market appears to be evidencing itself, with affluent pet
owner spend offsetting declining ownership and lower spend from median pet owners
o Sales growth in alternative form factor pet food and non-medical pet services is a trackable proxy for this thesis
As discussed in our last report, we believe this trend toward bifurcation can be reversed, for the betterment of the industry as a whole, by addressing key issues
• The inflationary cycle is showing early signs of subsiding, but higher prices continue to push some segments to the edge or out of the market
- Retailers increasing focus on premium products, to the detriment of mid-grade and value solutions, in addition to manufacturer and marketers’
heavy push into alternative form factor foods and treats demonstrates that industry participants continue to be primarily chasing higher income
consumers. A renewed focus on more economy-oriented solutions will retain and attract more low- and middle-income pet households
• While premiumization continues to thrive, private label pet foods and treats have picked up share in recent months as more consumers across income levels
seek ways to save money; for many consumers, price has become more important than brand
• While PPI data is not yet showing signs of material cost relief for key pet product inputs, manufacturers and marketers will need to pass along a portion of
cost savings if and when input costs ease to better keep the industry in balance
The pet industry is poised to outperform the broader capital and M&A markets, but macro market conditions will constrain deal volume in total
• Pet industry transaction volume has come off its peak and when you strip away veterinary services consolidation it was off more meaningfully in 2022
- Pet industry transaction volume peaked in 2021 at 162 transactions according to CapitalIQ, declining to just over 100 transactions in 2022
o When you factor out medical services transactions, this decline of ~ 37% increases to a decline of ~ 52%
- While mid-term election results quelled uncertainty, aggressive interest rate hikes in 2H2022 had a chilling effect on the M&A and capital markets
• Macro-market conditions continue to be headwinds in 1H2023 but the possibility remains for a volume uptick in the back-half of the year
- Industry professionalization over the past cycle has resulted in more category players being owned by private equity, a segment of the market that is
exhibiting greater caution in bringing assets to market given declines in debt availability and rising cost from available borrowing sources
- Public markets continue to be closed for business, but a Fed pause, a return to a bull market, and increasing probability of a soft landing provides
hope for more favorable conditions later this year or in 2024
• We continue to believe the transaction markets will favor premium and owned manufacturing assets, and anticipate that co-manufacturing and non-
medical pet services will replace pet supplements as the sectors of the market most in the transaction spotlight over the balance of 2023
5. Analysis of Industry Growth Drivers
5
UNDERLYING ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS THAT SERVE AS PREDICTORS OF CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR IN THE PET CATEGORY HAVE BEEN MORE VOLATILE OVER THE LAST YEAR
Unemployment ticked up 0.3% in May to 3.7% but remains near historic lows Consumer sentiment remains depressed but ticked up when real wage trend reversed
U.S. Unemployment Rate Consumer Sentiment
Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.5% from April 2022 to April 2023 Inflation registered 4.9% for April 2023, off the peak of 8.9% in June 2022
Real Wage Growth (12-Month % Change) Inflation Rate
Sources: U.S. Labor Bureau; University of Michigan
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Unemployment Rate Change
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Monthly 3-Month Moving Average
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
12-Month % Change 1-Month % Change
6. Publicly Traded Pet Company Performance
6
OUR PET INDEX EXPERIENCED RECORD REVENUE IN 2022, BUT EARNINGS WERE
CHALLENGED DUE TO RISING INPUT AND SUPPLY CHAIN COSTS
Industry revenue and earnings, as measured by public company performance, provides insight into the state of the category, albeit as a lagging indicator
• Revenue for our publicly traded pet companies` index1,2 grew 3.2% in 2H2022, versus 12.9% in the prior-year period, reflecting a difficult comp period
- Revenue growth excluding Zoetis, which accounts for between 35% - 40% of our comp group revenue in any quarter, was up 2.1% in 2H2022,
versus growth of 10.1% in the prior year period
• Adjusted earnings for publicly traded pet companies in our index declined 9.6% in 2H2022, versus a decline of 30.5% in the prior-year period
- Weak earnings in 2H2021 presented a relatively easy comp, but continued input price pressures materially compressed earnings in 2H2022
Industry continued to be challenged for profitability in 2H2022 as revenue growth slowed and input costs continued to increase
• These headwinds resulted in meaningful public stock price compression, with our index declining 9.6%, relative to an increase of 0.4% in the S&P 500
(1) Data set includes Central Garden & Pet Company, Freshpet, Inc., IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., Neogen Corp., Oil-Dri Corp of America, PetIQ, Inc., PetMed Express, Inc., Pets At Home Group, PLC, Trupanion, Inc., Virbac SA, and Zoetis, Inc.
(2) Companies that did not report two positive EPS quarters for each of the past four quarters are excluded from any EPS based calculations which has a meaningful impact of volatility calculations and results in changes to year-over-year comparisons
Source: CapitalIQ
Pet Industry Revenues ($M) Pet Industry Adjusted EPS ($)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
CQ3
2019
CQ4
2019
CQ1
2020
CQ2
2020
CQ3
2020
CQ4
2020
CQ1
2021
CQ2
2021
CQ3
2021
CQ4
2021
CQ1
2022
CQ2
2022
CQ3
2022
CQ4
2022
Revenue YoY Change
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
CQ3
2019
CQ4
2019
CQ1
2020
CQ2
2020
CQ3
2020
CQ4
2020
CQ1
2021
CQ2
2021
CQ3
2021
CQ4
2021
CQ1
2022
CQ2
2022
CQ3
2022
CQ4
2022
EPS YoY Change
7. Publicly Traded Pet Company Performance (cont.)
Sources: CapitalIQ; Nestle S.A; The J.M. Smucker Company
Notes: Nestle underlying trading operating profit is trading operating profit before net other trading income/expenses
Nestlé vs. S&P 500 J. M. Smucker vs. S&P 500
7
• For FY2022 and 1Q2023, Purina PetCare was the largest contributor to
Nestlé’s organic growth, with continued momentum for science-based
and premium brands Purina Pro Plan, Purina ONE and Fancy Feast, as
well as veterinary products
• PetCare posted 14.5% growth, with 10.2% from pricing (real internal
growth of 4.3%), marking the third consecutive year the sector has
produced double digit growth
• Underlying trading operating profit for PetCare in FY22 was 20.5%
(down 60 bps YoY), making it the second largest Nestlé category by
profit position
• The company continues to benefit from its market leadership position
in the U.S. (29%) as well as its global exposure, with most benefit
coming from dry dog food and both wet and dry cat segments, which it
noted was the most attractive growth opportunity for the franchise
• Management believes it can produce a CAGR of 6% - 8% through 2025
driven by continued pet population growth globally, increased sales
from emerging markets which have outpaced developed markets by 3x
since 2013, continued premiumization which has outpaced economy
products by 2.3x over this same period, and increase online sales
• The J.M. Smucker Company continued to revamp its pet consumables
strategy in 2H2022 culminating in the sale of Rachael Ray Nutrish,
Nature’s Recipe, 9Lives, Kibbles ‘n Bits and Gravy Train, and associated
manufacturing plants and distribution centers to Post Holdings in
February 2023
• Post-divestiture the company's portfolio mix goes from 33% of sales from
dog food, cat food, and treats, respectively, to 40% cat food and 60%
treats, resulting in both margin and mix improvements
• The Company continued to evidence its position as the market leader in
pet treats with a 23% share through January 31, 2023, having produced
YoY net sales growth in 16 of the last 18 quarters and projecting net sales
in excess of $1B in the coming years
• Within the treats segment, the revised growth strategy is to continue to
leverage its leadership in the biscuit and soft chew segment while
expanding into the long-lasting chew category, supported by innovation,
merchandising expansion, and marketing support
• Within cat food, the company is banking on its ability to grow in the wet
sub-segment, where Meow Mix has 20% exposure versus a total industry
mix of 50%, supported by increased assortment, new packaging aligned
with consumer tastes, and advertising support
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15% S&P 500 J. M. Smucker
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10% S&P 500 Nestlé
8. Publicly Traded Pet Company Performance (cont.)
Sources: CapitalIQ; Chewy, Inc.; Freshpet, Inc
Chewy vs. S&P 500 Freshpet vs. S&P 500
8
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20% S&P 500 Freshpet
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% S&P 500 Chewy
• Chewy topped the $10B sales market in 2022, delivering 13.6% growth,
albeit a deceleration from the 24.4% growth rate in the prior year,
driven by a 15% increase in sales per active customer offsetting a
decline in active customers of 1.2%
• Gross Margin reached 28%, an expansion of 130 bps, and adjusted
EBITDA margin was 3.0%, an expansion of 210 bps YoY
• Equity analysts estimate that Chewy now controls ~23% of the pet
e-commerce sales market, based on e-commerce penetration of 26% of
pet products PCE, which equates to approximately 6.6% of the total
online and retail pet products market
• For the five years ended in 2022, Chewy has seen its autoship
penetration increase from 62% to 73%, and its customer cohort analysis
supports long term sales of $1,000 per active customer
• Chewy invested over $230M in capex in 2022, largely expanding its
automated fulfillment center footprint (~30% of shipped volume),
which the Company estimates improved throughput by 25% per square
foot, driving 30% improvement in cost per unit in those buildings
• Management announced international expansion plans, with impending
launches over the next few quarters, and it estimates investment in
international expansion and other growth initiatives will negatively
impact 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin by ~50 - 75bps
• Freshpet grew revenue to $595M in 2022, reflecting growth of nearly
40%, constrained by capacity, but margin degradation was meaningful,
resulting in 730 bps of compression at the gross margin line and turning
the business unprofitable
• Jana Partners, an activist investor who announced a near 10% stake in
the business in September 2022, continues to agitate for change based
on perceived mismanagement and self dealing, indicating they will
launch a proxy fight seeking to appoint four directors to the Company
• Management rolled out a new five-year plan aimed at appeasing
investors with greater emphasis on operational execution to drive
profitability, while enjoying limited sacrifices to growth, though cadence
is expected to be less even
• Central to this plan is an increase in media spend efficiency, with spend
declining from a historical rate of 12% of revenue to 9% during the plan
period, supported by increased innovation to drive adoption
• The Company reduced near term capex spend by $50M, but expects to
invest at least $200M annually during the plan period, though
management stated they are exploring new technologies that could
enhance productivity and therefore alleviate some future capex needs
• The Company is actively negotiating a new debt agreement, but all signs
point to a capital raise in 2024 absent an activist induced sale process
9. Analysis of Public Company Trading Multiples
9
• Graphs below show median Total Enterprise Value to LTM EBITDA multiples for publicly traded pet companies by segment
• Entities included in each comparable company set can be viewed on the slides that follow
Pet Products and Retail Median TEV/EBITDA LTM by Month
Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health Median TEV/EBITDA LTM by Month
Sources: CapitalIQ as of 05/31/23
10.3x 10.2x 10.1x 9.6x
10.5x 10.9x 10.3x 11.0x 11.4x 11.2x 11.4x
10.3x
Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
14.9x 14.7x 14.2x
10.9x
12.3x
13.9x
11.9x
15.4x
13.3x
12.0x 11.6x
17.0x
Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
10. Public Comps
10
Sources: CapitalIQ as of 05/31/23
($ in millions, except per share data) Price Market Enterprise LTM Revenue Growth LTM Margins P/E EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA
Company 05/31/23 Cap Value Revenue EBITDA 1 Year 3 Years Gross EBITDA Multiple LTM NTM LTM NTM
Pet Products
BARK, Inc. $1.04 $185 $154 $538 NM 5.5% 33.6% 57.6% NM NM 0.3x 0.3x NM NM
Central Garden & Pet Company 36.30 1,883 3,221 3,259 370 (3.9%) 10.2% 28.8% 11.4% 21.1x 1.0x 1.0x 8.7x 9.5x
Freshpet, Inc. 59.76 2,876 2,886 631 NM 35.9% 34.2% 30.4% NM NM 4.6x 3.7x NM 44.7x
Oil-Dri Corporation of America 37.97 272 301 379 40 17.0% 10.2% 20.7% 10.6% 20.9x 0.8x 0.0x 7.5x 0.0x
Mean 13.6% 22.1% 34.4% 11.0% 21.0x 1.7x 1.3x 8.1x 18.1x
Median 11.2% 21.9% 29.6% 11.0% 21.0x 0.9x 0.6x 8.1x 9.5x
Pet Retail
Chewy, Inc. $29.49 $12,605 $12,330 $10,455 $227 13.8% 25.0% 28.3% 2.2% NM 1.2x 1.3x 54.4x 42.5x
Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. 7.64 2,039 4,922 6,116 946 4.2% 11.2% 39.6% 15.5% 31.3x 0.8x 0.8x 5.2x 9.7x
Pets at Home Group Plc 4.64 2,220 2,668 1,739 302 6.6% 9.9% 47.5% 17.4% 21.9x 1.5x 1.5x 8.8x 8.6x
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. 22.74 1,624 2,036 728 145 20.7% 0.0% 41.5% 20.0% 26.7x 2.8x 2.6x 14.0x 11.6x
Tractor Supply Company 209.59 22,964 27,478 14,480 2,332 11.7% 19.5% 35.1% 16.1% 26.7x 1.9x 1.8x 11.8x 13.7x
zooplus SE 490.25 2,324 2,272 2,231 17 15.9% 15.9% 26.2% 0.8% 0.0x 1.0x 0.0x 133.0x 0.0x
Mean 12.2% 13.6% 36.4% 12.0% 21.3x 1.5x 1.3x 37.9x 14.3x
Median 12.8% 13.5% 37.4% 15.8% 26.7x 1.4x 1.4x 12.9x 10.6x
Veterinary Medecine
PetIQ, Inc. 12.73 371 816 936 81 (1.8%) 7.8% 22.9% 8.6% 50.5x 0.9x 0.8x 10.1x 8.9x
PetMed Express, Inc. 14.83 303 199 257 4 (6.1%) (3.3%) 27.6% 1.7% 125.3x 0.8x 0.6x 45.3x 12.4x
Mean (4.0%) 2.2% 25.3% 5.2% 87.9x 0.8x 0.7x 27.7x 10.6x
Median (4.0%) 2.2% 25.3% 5.2% 87.9x 0.8x 0.7x 27.7x 10.6x
13. Pet Industry Trends to Watch
13
INDUSTRY TREND FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON COST BUT, IN A POST-DCM REALITY, MORE
FOCUS WILL NOW TURN TO INNOVATION
Pet inflation continues to rise, outpacing the broader CPI, and while producers have experienced some cost stabilization, they are not yet seeing relief
• The pet category as a whole has largely kept pace with inflation and only began its trajectory of outpacing the CPI in 3Q2022
• Notably, pet food was lagging broader inflation in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerated in early 2022
• Pet food price levels surpassed the broader CPI in 4Q2022 and 1Q2023, but the subcategory has yet to exceed Total Pet overall price levels
• Cost stabilization, but not necessarily relief, may be in sight for producers as PPI metrics for meat processors, renderers, resin, and transportation have
plateaued and appear poised to deflate
- It will be critical for manufacturers and marketers to pass along a portion of any cost savings realized in order to prevent the industry from
continuing the shift to focusing on the super premium and high-income consumer, leaving behind more value-oriented demographics
Private label pet products, specifically foods and treats, have gained share in recent months as consumers are seeking more economical solutions
• Recent data suggests that more consumers, across income levels, are purchasing private label dog and cat foods and treats, which highlights the need
for the pet industry to maintain focus on the middle of the bell curve
• The same data also shows that consumers are not necessarily turning to private label across all subcategories, and private label pet supplies and toys
dollar sales are down over the same period
• Notably, the pet industry is running against the overall CPG trends in this instance as Total CPG branded products remained strong through 1Q2023
̵ Total CPG private label dollar and unit share were both down in the latest three months ending March 2023 across all income groups
The FDA’s investigation into DCM linked to certain diets came in with a bang and went out with a whimper. As the critical focus shifts off BEG diets, we
expect a renewed push with vegan and other novel pet nutrition concepts
• The FDA released an update to their investigation into a potential link between certain diets and canine dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) without much
fanfare in December 2022
̵ The release stated that the “FDA does not intend to release further public updates until there is meaningful new scientific information to share“
• While adverse event numbers can be a potential signal of an issue with an FDA regulated products, by themselves, they “do not supply sufficient data to
establish a causal relationship with reported product(s)”
- We steadfastly support the health and wellbeing of pets everywhere, but this 4+ year FDA investigation raises questions as to whom was truly to
benefit from the endeavor and anticipate the epitaph for DCM is yet to be written
• Over the past decade the latency between human trends and pet trends has continued to decrease. Two prevailing trends in human nutrition have been
plant-based diets and a focus on sustainability. Sustainability has undoubtedly taken hold in the pet realm, and brands across segments highlight their
focus on sustainable ingredients and processes. Plant-based and vegan pet diets have built comparatively less steam, but that may begin to change.
- Scientists at the Western University of Health Sciences’ College of Veterinary Medicine and the University of California Berkeley’s School of
Public Health published a study on the long-term impacts of a plant-based diet on dog health. The study’s results showed a plant-based diet can
indeed provide complete and balanced nutrition for dogs over the long term. V-dog’s plant-based formulas were the focus of the study, but this
news should help build momentum for v-dog, Petaluma, Wild Earth, Halo, and others
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Numerator, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, Western University of Health Sciences’ College of Veterinary Medicine and the University of California Berkeley’s School of Public Health
14. 85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Index
Week Number
Sales Households Trips Spend per Trip Units per Trip
Brick and Mortar and E-commerce Trends
WHILE PHYSICAL RETAIL SALES HAVE RELATIVELY STABILIZED SINCE ITS RESURGENCE
LAST YEAR, THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS SHOPPING ONLINE HAS INCREASE D
14
• April 2023 sales were relatively
flat across channels as grocery
and household inflation began
to wane and prices began to
settle to around year-ago
levels.
• Households shopping in-store
remained relatively flat
compared to April last year,
while households shopping
online is slightly elevated. As
we settle into a post-COVID-19
pandemic world, the
resurgence we saw in brick and
mortar has stabilized, and
online shopping’s appeal has
continued to draw consumers.
• Consumers are making more
frequent trips – particularly
online – but buying fewer
items and spending less per trip
than they were in April 2022.
• Interestingly, the average
number of items purchased per
trip is down 5-10% across most
channels. Many shoppers
began dropping items from
their baskets as inflation
skyrocketed in early 2022, and
despite prices beginning to
stabilize, basket sizes remain
small.
Source: Numerator
In-Store Shopping Behavior vs. YA
Online Shopping Behavior vs. YA
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Index
Week Number
Sales Households Trips Spend per Trip Units per Trip
15. Grocery and Household Inflation is Tempering
THE FED HAS AGGRESSIVELY RAISED RATES TO COMBAT INFLATION, AND T HE LATEST
DATA SHOWS SOME AMELIORATION IN GROCERY, BUT HAS THE FED GONE TO O FAR?
15
• Inflation has begun to slow
across channels and categories,
and while Grocery, Household,
and Health & Beauty prices
remained elevated in April, the
rate of increase has leveled off
from 2022 highs.
• Grocery prices were up 6.1% vs.
YA, in line with previous weeks
and significantly lower than late
2022. Prices for household
items were up 7.5% vs. YA and
have reached the lowest level
seen in the past year.
• Since February 2022, the Dollar
channel has seen the highest
rate of inflation (of the tracked
data), but Mass is catching up
as Dollar inflation is easing
more quickly.
• At the end of April, Online
prices officially fell below year-
ago levels, registering -0.3%
change vs YA. This latest few
weeks also registered Online
inflation lower than Club, which
previously showed the lowest
inflation rates during 2022.
• The questions on everyone’s
mind: has the Fed
overcorrected and what
happens next? Only time will
tell. Source: Numerator
Inflation by Sector – Average price per item vs. YA
Grocery Inflation by Channel – Average price per item vs. YA
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
5/8 5/22 6/5 6/19 7/3 7/17 7/31 8/14 8/28 9/11 9/25 10/9 10/23 11/6 11/20 12/4 12/18 1/1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/12 3/26 4/9 4/23
Federal
Funds
Target
Range
-
Upper
Limit
Price
Change
vs.
YA
4 Week End Date
Grocery Household Health & Beauty Fed Funds Target Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
5/8 5/22 6/5 6/19 7/3 7/17 7/31 8/14 8/28 9/11 9/25 10/9 10/23 11/6 11/20 12/4 12/18 1/1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/12 3/26 4/9 4/23
Federal
Funds
Target
Range
-
Upper
Limit
Price
Change
vs.
YA
4 Week End Date
Food Mass Dollar Club Online Fed Funds Target Rate
16. Pet Inflation Across Categories
16
AS OF APRIL 2023, NEARLY ALL PET CATEGORIES PRICE INDEXES HAVE EXCEEDED
BROADER CPI LEVELS IN THE U.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI for All Urban Consumers
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
Jan
2020
Jan
2021
Jan
2022
Jan
2023
Apr
2023
Total Pet 100.5 102.9 106.1 107.3 112.0 123.9 129.0
Pet food 100.6 101.8 104.5 104.0 106.8 122.9 128.2
Purchase of pets, pet supplies, accessories 100.2 103.6 105.8 102.2 107.4 115.2 115.8
Pet services 99.9 103.7 105.7 108.7 114.7 124.4 126.1
Veterinarian services 100.7 103.2 108.0 112.8 118.6 128.5 137.1
CPI 100.5 102.1 104.6 106.1 114.0 121.4 123.1
Total Pet Pet food Purchase of pets, pet supplies, accessories Pet services Veterinarian services CPI
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Jan
2019
Jul
2019
Jan
2020
Jul
2020
Jan
2021
Jul
2021
Jan
2022
Jul
2022
Jan
2023
CPI
(Dec
2017
=
100)
Apr
2023
What does the data say about inflation in the pet category? If you read the Pet Business Professor (and you
should), you may already have an idea, but we believe it is important to break down the data in this report to
complete our narrative.
The pet category as a whole has largely kept pace with inflation and only began its trajectory to outpace the
CPI in a material way in 3Q2022. Going deeper in the data, we can see that veterinary services has consistently
outpaced inflation and the broader category, while purchases of pets, pet supplies, and accessories has
consistently been the laggard in an effort to induce volume.
Notably, pet food has made its own trends, lagging broader inflation in the early days of the COVID-19
pandemic and picking up steam in early 2022. Pet food price levels surpassed the broader CPI in 4Q2022 and
1Q2023, but the subcategory has yet to exceed Total Pet overall price levels.
17. Price Changes from the Producers’ Perspective
17
THE PPI IS A LEADING INDICATOR TO THE CPI, AND THE MEASURE REMAINS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SECTORS SERVING THE PET INDUSTRY
Average prices for domestic meat processed from carcasses have grown 30.8% since
December 2017 and remain near peak levels
While this measure has come off its peak, rendering and meat byproduct processing
average prices have grown a whopping 77.2% since December 2017
Meat Processed from Carcasses PPI Rendering and Meat Byproduct Processing PPI
Accessories manufacturers are seeing some relief as average prices for resin and
synthetic rubber have fallen in recent months, but are still 24.5% higher than Dec 2017
While ocean freight costs have come back down to earth, domestic transportation
and warehousing remains near peak with average costs up 31.2% since Dec 2017
Resin and Synthetic Rubber PPI Transportation and Warehousing PPI
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Note: December 2017 = 100
18. Pet Private Label Trends
DIVERGING FROM OVERALL CPG PRIVATE LABEL TRENDS, PET PRIVATE LAB EL SALES
HAVE INCREASED IN RECENT MONTHS, DRIVEN BY PET FOODS AND TREATS
18
• For Total CPG, branded products
remained strong through the first
quarter of 2023. Total CPG private label
dollar and unit share (unit share
displayed to the right) are both down in
the latest three months ending March
2023 across all income groups.
• Pet showed a divergence from the
overall trend and private label dollar and
unit share were up overall 0.23% and
0.77%, respectively.
• Private label unit share growth was
unsurprisingly highest for low income
shoppers, reporting 1.47% unit growth in
the latest three months. Middle income
shoppers reported 0.67% unit growth
and high income 0.44% unit growth over
the same period.
• Looking at private label dollar share by
category across channels (including e-
commerce and MULO), the data shows
material dollar gains for Cat Food and
Treats (+19%) and Dog Food & Treats
(+6%). Unit share growth would be
incrementally higher than these
reported dollar share gains (data
unavailable).
Share of Units – Private Label vs. Branded
Latest 3 Months Ending 3/31/2023 vs. YA
Share Change
Private Label point change vs. YA
16.7%
25.6%
22.3%
18.7%
16.6%
21.8%
83.3%
74.4%
77.7%
81.3%
83.4%
78.2%
Health & Beauty
Household
Grocery
Baby
Pet
Total CPG
-0.14
-0.09
-0.60
0.20
0.77
-0.47
All Shoppers All Shoppers
18.2%
26.8%
21.6%
19.9%
18.4%
21.5%
81.8%
73.2%
78.4%
80.1%
81.6%
78.5%
Health & Beauty
Household
Grocery
Baby
Pet
Total CPG
-0.31
-0.43
-0.74
0.24
1.47
-0.60
Low Income Shoppers (<$40k) Low Income Shoppers (<$40k)
Pet Category Share Jan'23 Feb'23 Mar'23 L3M
Cat Food & Treats 7.1% 111 122 123 119
Cat Supplies 15.3% 100 96 94 97
Dog Food & Treats 15.1% 103 103 111 106
Pet Toys (Cat/Dog) 16.5% 93 79 85 86
Waste Management 39.2% 95 92 99 95
Private Label Dollar Share by Category – All Channels
Latest 3 Months Ending 3/31/2023 vs. YA
Source: Numerator
20. $250B
$216B
$213B
$213B
$266B
$221B
$239B
$257B
$321B
$256B
$261B
$266B
$259B
$269B
$250B
$255B
$258B
$137B
$228B
$324B
$340B
$340B
$366B
$461B
$321B
$297B
$294B
$296B
$311B*
3,460
2,924
2,781
2,662
3,517
2,762
2,891
3,109
3,893
3,063
3,105
3,112
3,479
3,199
3,099
3,178
3,596
1,937
2,918
4,068
4,064
3,917
4,178
5,289
4,259
4,147
4,134
4,342 4,332 *
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
A Slowdown in the M&A Market
20
M&A MARKETS HAVE EXPERIENCED A POST-PANDEMIC SLOWDOWN AND VALUAT ION
MULTIPLE COMPRESSION; HOWEVER, CAPITAL IS STILL CHASING HIGH QUALITY ASSETS
Deal Count
Deal Value ($B)
Deal volume peaked in 2021 and tapered in 2022. Q1 2023 deal value and volume was slightly ahead of the quarterly average for 2022.
U.S. M&A Deal Activity by Quarter - Sub $1B Deal Value
Median M&A Equity and Debt Multiples Strategic and Financial Acquiror Activity
4.7x 3.6x
6.2x 7.0x 5.9x 5.1x
6.8x
10.9x
6.3x 7.1x
5.7x 7.3x
8.1x
8.0x
6.2x
5.9x
8.4x
5.7x
4.4x 3.8x
10.4x 10.9x
14.3x
14.9x
12.1x
11.0x
15.2x
16.6x
10.6x 10.9x
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Equity/EBITDA Debt/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
(U.S. M&A Multiples $500M - $1B)
U.S. M&A multiples on transactions between $500M - $1B have fallen from their peak in
2020 but have remained relatively stable since 2021
*denotes estimates
Source: CapIQ; Pitchbook
27% 28% 27% 31% 33% 37% 38% 39% 44% 44% 40%
73% 72% 73% 69% 67% 63% 62% 61% 56% 56% 60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q2023
Buyout/LBO Merger/Acquisition
While still active, private equity activity has slowed slightly as measured by percent of
total acquisitions in 1Q2023
(U.S. M&A deal activity (% of total count) by acquirer type - Sub $1B)
21. Pet Industry Deal Dynamic Not Immune
21
INDUSTRY TRANSACTION VOLUME WAS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2022, THOUGH DEAL
VALUE DECLINE WAS LESS PRECIPITOUS REFLECTING LARGER DEALS FAVORED
1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q 2022
▪ End of the COVID ownership
bump narrative
▪ Revenue growth declines to LDD,
marking the beginning of a
deceleration, driven by flat to
declining volume
▪ Retailers begin inventory
delevering in March
▪ Public pet company earnings
decline precipitously reflecting
timing mismatch between
revenue and cost and beginning
of difficult comp period
▪ Post COVID ownership data
suggests population growth less
of a contributing factor, relative
to product access
▪ Inflation, especially in health care
services, takes bite out of
product sales evidenced by PCE
deceleration
▪ Highest COGS pass through
income statements at a time
retailers are delevering, resulting
in earnings bottom
▪ Supplies deals pulled from
market
▪ Fresh wave of price increases to
combat persistent input costs
which remain elevated and
compress gross margins
▪ Shrinkflation hits the market in
an effort to keep headline prices
from running away
▪ Major pet consumables
franchises report DD revenue
growth on declining US volume,
reflecting growth from price
realization
▪ Consumer sentiment declines to
cycle lows on peak societal
anxiety
▪ Evidence of Fed policy impact
turns positive, and sentiment
suggests largest interventions in
the past
▪ Consumer sentiment recovery
plateaus but political
normalization suggests more
upside than downside risk
▪ Recovery in category private
placement volume driven by
health care and emerging growth
businesses
▪ Earnings remain muted as input
cost declines yet to materialize
compressing gross margins
M&A Transactions
Private Placements
22. Key Pet Industry Transactions
22
CONSUMABLES CONSOLIDATION REFLECTED BOTH CHANGING CONSUMER PURCHASING
DYNAMICS AND OPERATIONAL REALITIES OF THE SECTOR
Invested in
Consumables
Sources: CapitalIQ, Pitchbook
Merger with
Natural Balance Pet Food, Inc., a portfolio company of Nexus Capital Management, merged with CANIDAE Corporation, a portfolio
company of L Catterton. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
We have been talking for awhile about the parallels between the craft beer industry and the pet food sector. Simplistically, we are
approaching the point where the extruded pet food market is reaching brand saturation, with consumers having limited ability to
differentiate given commonality of ingredient deck. With segment growth increasingly coming from alternative form factor pet food,
brands must either diversify their product mix or focus on profitability. Mergers of brands where there is commonality of formulations,
and therefore opportunities to leverage owned production infrastructure, supported by economies of scale in purchasing, and operational
synergies should and will become more common. Will the pet food industry see its Craft Brew Alliance moment? We think so.
Acquired by
Acquired Select
Pet Assets of
Services
Champion Petfoods, LP, a manufacturer and marketer of pet food and treats and a portfolio company of Bedford Capital Management
and Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, was acquired by Mars Petcare. Terms of the transaction were undisclosed.
Champion was the biggest acquisition prize available in the market since Blue Buffalo. Mars continues to revamp its portfolio to gain
exposure to growing segments of the market and higher growth sales channels, while their primary competitors milk their solution set for
cash flow. While we have rationalized previous Mars acquisitions as gaining logical exposure to the e-commerce component of the
market, the acquisition of Champion serves to validate that the ingredient-first pet food market is taking share and causing incumbents
pain. In some ways it is also an acknowledgement that the complete-and-balanced pet food wall supported by the veterinary community
is showing cracks in its foundation. No need to discuss hearsay on the purchase price and multiples; you know it was expensive.
Post Holdings, Inc., a publicly traded consumer packaged goods holding company, acquired the Pet Food Business of Ainsworth Pet
Nutrition, LLC and Big Heart Pet Brands, Inc. for $1.2 billion, or approximately 0.9x revenue.
Easy come but not so easy go. The J.M. Smucker Company’s foray into pet food has reached the logical end of its arc with this divestiture.
The transaction includes leading dog and cat food brands such as Rachael Ray Nutrish, Nature’s Recipe, 9Lives, Kibbles ‘n Bits and Gravy
Train, and associated manufacturing plants and distribution centers. The crown jewel, Nutrish, was acquired for $1.9B in 2018, but never
found its footing post transaction as the DCM narrative manifested itself shortly thereafter. After years of posting unfavorable growth,
experiencing margin compression, Smuckers threw in the towel, choosing to focus on their cat food and pet snack business. In return, Post
gets into the category with a scale set of brands at an attractive price point. Whether they can turn the tide will be something worth
watching.
General Atlantic, a global growth equity firm, launched Village Pet Care, a pet care services start-up, in partnership with Shane Kelly,
founder and former CEO of Destination Pet.
If pet supplements was the white hot pet M&A sector of 2022, pet services is poised to usurp its platinum status. Private equity continues
to be desirous of investing in the pet category, but most firms have found limited opportunities in consumables absent paying precedent
setting multiples. Enter pet services, the wild west of the category. Boarding and daycare is one of the most fragmented sectors of the
market, but a return-to-the-office thesis and a multiplexing of venues open to hosting these concepts have investors poised to dig in.
Franchise concepts, such as Dogtopia, have validated that this sector can be professionalized. We anticipate more transactions will follow.
Village Pet Care will leverage Kelly’s relationships and know-how to aggregate localized concepts into a common platform.
23. 20.0x
12.7x
8.8x
10.2x
17.3x
3.5x
2.3x
1.8x 2.0x
3.5x
Animal Health Consumables Hardgoods Retail Veterinary
Mean EBITDA Multiple Mean Revenue Multiple
Analysis of Acquisition Multiples
23
THE PACE OF CONSOLIDATION HAS SLOWED, BUT ACQUISITION MULTIPLES REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS CATEGORIES
• Our pet industry M&A comps database contains 150+ transactions that
have occurred since January 2010 with disclosed or proprietary
estimated transaction multiples across five categories – Animal Health,
Consumables, Hardgoods, Retail, and Veterinary
- Retail and Veterinary also include distribution assets specific to
those channels
- A majority of pet industry M&A transactions continue to occur
without transparency into the revenue or profit multiples paid
• Pet and animal health related M&A has experienced a significant
deceleration relative to the 2021 peak, posting a decline of ~37% in
2022, and the sector has not been immune from macroeconomics
factors that are impacting the market broadly
• Persistent input cost inflation and high transportation costs have put
pressure on earnings for certain subsectors, compressing valuations for
some M&A outcomes and at times putting M&A processes on hold
• Transaction multiples continued to exhibit a barbell pattern in 2022 and
YTD 2023, with market leaders being acquired on multiples that were
higher than historical precedents, with the balance of transactions
reflecting tuck-in acquisitions
• Multiplies in leverage dependent categories contracted as lenders have
become more risk averse in response to rising interest rates and broader
turbulence in the banking industry
Sources: Capital IQ, Cascadia Capital
Pet M&A Transactions – Mean EBITDA and Revenue Multiples
24. Private Placement Volume
24
PRIVATE PLACEMENT VOLUME HAS SLOWED, BUT ANIMAL HEALTH AND VETERINARY
SERVICES SUBSECTORS REMAIN ACTIVE
Sources: Capital IQ; Cascadia Capital; Pitchbook
• Private placements into pet related companies
in the United States and Canada began to signal
a slowdown during 2H2022, and current pacing
suggests 1H2023 deal volume will be down
~50% YoY, with 14 known transactions placing a
minimum of $5M in capital
• Through May 31, 2023, fourteen known
transactions totaling $234M had been
reported, a material slowing from the ~$500M
of capital raised in 2H2022 and ~$1.1B raised in
1H2022
• Animal health has continued to dominate in
2023 private placement volume and dollars
invested, with veterinary services and
ingredients being the primary recipients of
third-party capital
• Among branded companies receiving equity
infusions, the majority are operating primarily
in an e-commerce or direct-to-consumer sales
model, reflecting investor perceptions that this
market will continue to grow and be a cost-
effective source of customer acquisition
Pet Capital Markets Transactions - Dollars Raised
Deal Date Target Name Funding Source
Total New Money
($M)
May-23 Airvet Mountain Group Partners $15.2
May-23 TeleVet Consortium of investors $32.5
May-23 Smalls 301, General Mills, Mars, and consortium of investors $19.0
Apr-23 A Pup Above Marriott Group $5.9
Apr-23 Companion Digitalis Ventures, Lerer Hippeau $6.0
Mar-23 MySimplePetLab Digitalis Ventures, MaRS Investment Accelerator Fund $6.0
Mar-23 EVAH Grupo Fuertes, Vall Companys Grupo $6.2
Feb-23 Scratchpay Norw est Venture Partners $35.0
Feb-23 Sploot Consortium of investors $6.0
Feb-23 Moichor Consortium of investors $6.2
Jan-23 Inspire Veterinary Partners Consortium of investors $7.7
Jan-23 Digitail ACE & Company, Allison Pickens, Atomico $11.0
Jan-23 Paytient Consortium of investors $40.5
Jan-23 Ophirex AXA Investment Managers $37.0
Dec-22 PetFriendly Invest Nebraska $8.0
Dec-22 Small Door Veterinary C&S Family Capital, FS Investors, TriplePoint Capital $40.0
Dec-22 Pictor Massey Ventures $5.0
Dec-22 Skiptow n Clear North Capital, Focus Impact Partners, Meaningful Partners $27.4
Nov-22 BetterVet Alta Partners, Bruce Herzfelder, Daniel Adams $40.0
Nov-22 Torigen Pharmaceuticals Consortium of investors $13.0
Oct-22 Galaxy Vets Consortium of investors $13.0
Oct-22 automed Lex Aude Services $7.5
Oct-22 Exubrion Therapeutics Consortium of investors $8.0
Oct-22 VETRESKA Consortium of investors $50.0
Oct-22 Koala Health Alumni Ventures, First Round Capital, Menlo Ventures, Operator Partners $20.0
Oct-22 GoDog Level 5 Capital Partners $20.0
Oct-22 Yummers C&S Family Capital, L Catterton, and consortium of investors $6.3
Oct-22 Sundays Spacestation Investments $13.2
Sep-22 Roo Jackson Square Ventures, Stonew ater Ventures $11.0
Aug-22 Pacific GeneTech Arkansas Development Finance Authority, FHB Ventures, Simmons Foods $10.0
Aug-22 Petfolk Consortium of investors $40.0
Aug-22 Maev BFG Partners, Delivery Hero Ventures $10.0
Aug-22 Genvax Consortium of investors $8.4
Aug-22 Modern Animal D1 Capital Partners, Section Partners $75.0
Aug-22 BiOWiSH Technologies SABIC Ventures $5.0
Summary metrics since Jan 1, 2021: Max $438.8
Min $5.0
Median $13.6
Mean $30.2
26. Our Firm
26
A MIDDLE MARKET INVESTMENT BANK SERVING COMPANIES ON A NATIONAL BASIS
ACROSS EMERGING GROWTH AND TRADITIONAL INDUSTRY VERTICALS
Founded in 1999
Cascadia has a successful 20+ year history
Investment banking
professionals
80
20
480 Five office locations as well as local
senior banker presence in key markets
across the U.S.
INDUSTRY
EXPERTISE
RESULTS
FOCUS
DEAL
VOLUME
Leading
diversified
investment bank
• M&A, private placement, and
advisory services
• Specialized in-depth expertise
across multiple industry verticals
• Representing clients in the US and
globally, including Europe, Asia and
Australia
Experienced team
with successful
track record
• Investment bank of choice for
entrepreneurs as well as sponsor-
owned companies
• Decades of investment banking and
operational expertise
• Deep capital markets expertise
Managing Directors
Expanding national
platform built for
growth
• Cascadia is the nation’s second
largest independent investment bank
and has opened two new offices and
doubled revenue since 2020
• Cascadia recently received a strategic
investment from Atlas Merchant
Capital to further accelerate growth
Transactions Completed
Seattle
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Austin
Nashville
Cleveland
Atlanta
New York
27. Our Experience and
Approach
Drive
Results
• We have experience, industry
focus and a differentiated
process that drives success
• Our transactions are built upon
delivering the best quantitative
and qualitative terms with the
most desirable counterparty
$16 billion in total M&A transactions closed in the firm’s history
$4.5+ billion in total capital raised in the firm’s history
Process and Experience Deliver Results
27
WE COMBINE DEEP INDUSTRY EXPERTISE WITH A CUSTOMIZED APPROACH TO PROCESS
DESIGN TO DRIVE ABOVE-MARKET RESULTS
We Differentiate Each
Process With a
Customized
Approach
• We are thoughtful advisors who
deliver a tailored process to suit the
needs of our clients
• We understand the strategies of the
counterparties, enabling us to tell
them why they should be interested
– allowing Cascadia to drive the
transaction and maximize results
Team Members
Have
Deep Industry
Expertise
• With bankers across multiple
industry verticals, we have the
experience to offer industry
breadth while maintaining sector
depth
• Dedicated resource model with
comprehensive vertical expertise
from Managing Director to Analyst
28. A National Leader in Food, Bev and Ag
MOST RECENT FOOD, BEVERAGE AND AGRIBUSINESS TRANSACTIONS
28
29. Pet Industry Transaction Experience
29
OUR PET INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE IS BOTH BROAD AND DEEP, MAKING US ONE OF THE
MOST ACTIVE INVESTMENT BANK IN THE CATEGORY
Pet Industry Experience
• 15+ years of industry coverage
• 38 closed transactions, with a meaningful
emphasis on branded companies
• 19 deals within the consumables sector
• Seven deals in e-commerce or direct-to-
consumer
• Three transactions in process
• $4.0+ billion in total transacted value
• $500+ million of in-process deal value
• ~ $120 million in average transaction value1
• Over 500 term sheets and indications of interest
received on behalf of our clients
• Over 300 coverage relationships (company,
buyer, investor)
• Dedicated pet industry team
Note: (1) Includes in-process transactions
growth financing
Undisclosed
Investors
series B financing
led by
April 2020
December 2020
has received an
investment from
October 2022