The Wisdom of Crowds
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Francis Galton discovered the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon when he observed that the average guess of 787 people about the weight of an ox was remarkably close to the actual weight. He found that crowds can make good decisions collectively even when individuals have imperfect information. This occurs because errors in different guesses tend to cancel out. The diversity of a crowd, including a range of perspectives, yields superior outcomes compared to groups of like-minded experts prone to "groupthink". Ensuring diversity, dissent, and independence among a group's members is important for harnessing the wisdom of crowds effect.
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The Wisdom of Crowds
- 5. In 1906 Galton visited a livestock fair and stumbled upon an contest.
- 12. Other examples
- 18. Other examples
- 26. Months later it was discovered that it was in fact Morton Thiokol who caused the problem with the production of faulty O-rings.
- 29. Other examples
- 39. So what does this tell us?
- 41. It is important to remember…
- 47. A key point is…
- 51. GROUPTHINK
- 58. What can we do ?
Editor's Notes
- Lecture based on the ideas based in this book plus some ideas on how this maps onto Problem Solving and Knowledge Management. It’s a good read and well worth buying (on amazon under 10Euros) We don’t intuitively think of a crowd as having wisdom maybe because we associate a crowd with a mindless mob. I’m going to talk about Good Crowds and Bad Crowds. The Good Crowd having wisdom. Newsnight last night – the “fee-paying” students are beating the police at the game of “democratic protest” --- the police are hampered by hierarchical protocols … the students have a flat fluid structure backed up by technology (guerrillas versus regular army) ……. A new democracy!
- Gut Feeling …. Impulse Buy Experience only good for same problem We all love an Expert but as we will see they are only good in a narrow problem space The Friend and colleque may have very similar values/belief as your own Yes Man Culture Fear or Lazyness --------- Hitler Stalin Simon Cowell Oxford Bags and 6” Platforms in the 70’s ……. Housing Bubbles .NET Bubble Politics, only one way of doing things, non creative
- Eugenist ….. Part of later facist propaganda Believed in class system and that certain people were implicitly wise
- Now Polling agencies believe in the wisdom of the crowd
- Imperfect Information means that there are lots of conditions that influence the outcome Fn(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5…………………) => y1 However different people have different unknowns.
- U may say the questions are easier or more generic/popular when Ask the audience is used near the start but the counter argument is also true The expert should know the question when its specific.
- In the old days maybe Stephens Green Toilets at Dawn ….. Ask the audience?
- U forgot or didn’t hear where to meet
- Ask for a vote!
- The falability of experts
- What is Intelligence ???
- Other Peoples Views
- Hetrogenious > HomoGenious
- U need the Outlanders for different ideas
- We’re too far away in Hawaii to be attacked (even although they had numerous warnings diplomatic & radar ) Castro’s army can easily be beaten with some CIA operatives / Kennedy and Intellectual Elite Helicopters didn’t work in sandstorm No exit strategy Note they are all army/political
- 1. IBM in the 70’s ….. Can’t get sacked for Buying Big Blue even although proprietary …….. But UNIX and cheaper hardware. 2. The Moonies The British Empire People from Aberdeen The Spanish Inquisition I can’t say what I think Follows from 6 Zeolets snitches
- 1. IBM in the 70’s ….. Can’t get sacked for Buying Big Blue even although proprietary …….. But UNIX and cheaper hardware. 2. The Moonies The British Empire People from Aberdeen The Spanish Inquisition I can’t say what I think Follows from 6 Zeolets snitches
- Arrogance
- Spread the Load
- No Dictator
- Everyone gets an equal say
- External protactinous/antaganist ------ new blood
- PMI, OPV, 6 Hats
- Sounds like Community of Practice (a KM Term)
- Summary of main conclusions from Book Diversity means that less chance of cliques thus supporting Independent thought In turn providing a meritocracy for input and a flat structure.
- 1. Lack of gene diversity and outside influences therefore open 2 follow the leader(church state) and peer pressure; others are witches 2. Suitable to both defence and prosecution therefore diverse and good for coming up with verdict. 3. Very Tribal makes them feel safe, Know better than manager about own team, very bias about referee, persecution complex 4. Amateur gamblers, professional gamblers, the bookies use the wisdom of the gambling crowds. 5. Nuerals begin on equal status but go from homogeneous to hetrogenous(diverse) after training. 6. Set-up to be Diverse, Independent and Decentralised so as to solve problems of common interest and evolve.