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2. Taylor RuleAssume an economy with an AE curve with a s.docxeugeniadean34240
2. Taylor Rule
Assume an economy with an AE curve with a slope of 1 where a one percent change in real interest rates changes real GDP by 1 percent with a one year lag. This economy is also characterized by an ouput gap Phillips curve where a one percentage point change in the output gap affects inflation with a one year lag. From Okun’s law for this economy a 1 percent change in real GDP changes the unemployment rate by .5%. The natural rate of unemployment for this economy is 5%. The neutral real rate of interest rn = 3.0 %/ and the target rate of inflation ΠT = 2%.
Assumes that policy makers inherit an economy at its natural rate of unemployment (5%), 6 percent inflation in year 0, and decide to use an aggressive Taylor rule of:
r = 3% + 1.0 (Y-Y*/Y*) + 1.0 (Π – 2%)
Fill in the following table assuming that policy makers have a correct model of the economy, follow the aggressive Taylor rule, and the economy has the two one period lags. Remember that in each year the policy choice for the real interest rate changes. (Your policy choice in year 0 affects GDP in Y in year 1 and how that policy affects GDP in year 1 affects inflation in year 2.
Hint. Use the Taylor rule to pick r in period 0 based on information in table. That r chosen for year 0 will have an impact on Y (and u based on Okun’s law) in year 1, but will have no impact on inflation until year 2 depending on the output gap that opens up in year 1.
Year
r
Π
Y
(Y-Y*/Y*
Π-ΠT
u
i
(policy)
ouptut gap
nominal
interest rate
0
6.0
100.0
0
4.0
5.0
1
2
3
4
Running Head: HISTORY STUDY GUIDE
1
HISTORY STUDY GUIDE
2
History Study guide
Name
Institution
History Study guide
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2. Total freedom o.
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The Real Causes of America's Wars, Lecture 2 with David Gordon - Mises Academy
1. The Real Causes of America’s
Wars, Lecture 2
The Spanish-American War
2. Traditional American Foreign
Policy
●Why are we talking about the Spanish-
American War? It lasted only 10 weeks. But it
raises an important issue.
●Did the Spanish-American War depart from
traditional American foreign policy?
●Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation, claims that
it didn’t. He points out that from the beginning
of America’s history, we have been an
expansionist nation.
3. Kagan’s Argument
●Under the doctrine of Manifest Destiny, the
US took over the whole American continent.
The Mexican War (1846-1848) showed that
America was willing to use force to do this.
●In the Spanish-American War, Cuba became
a virtual US protectorate.
●Suggestions to take over Cuba were common
in the 19th
century. E.g., some people wanted
to extend slavery there.
●Further, the Monroe Doctrine (1823),
identifies all of Latin America as our sphere of
4. Kagan’s Argument Continued
●Kagan adds that America has always had an
idealistic strain in its foreign policy.
●19th
century Americas sympathized with the
Greek independence movement in the 1820s
and with the Hungarian revolution of 1848-49.
●America’s policy in the Spanish-American
War continued this emphasis. We
sympathized with the Cuban people, who
were harshly treated by the Spanish.
5. What Was the Traditional
American Policy?
●I’ll be arguing that Kagan’s thesis is wrong.
The Spanish-American War did break with
traditional American policy.
●The best account of traditional American
policy is contained in Washington’s Farewell
Address. The Address wasn’t an actual
speech but was published in a newspaper ,
The American Daily Advertiser, in 1796.
6. The Heart of the Address
●The key part of the Address for our purposes
is this:
●“The great rule of conduct for us in regard to
foreign nations is in extending our commercial
relations, to have with them as little political
connection as possible. So far as we have
already formed engagements, let them be
fulfilled with perfect good faith. Here let us
stop. Europe has a set of primary interests
which to us have none; or a very remote
relation.
7. Quotation Continued
●Hence she must be engaged in frequent
controversies, the causes of which are
essentially foreign to our concerns.
Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in
us to implicate ourselves by artificial ties
in the ordinary vicissitudes of her
politics, or the ordinary combinations
and collisions of her friendships or
8. Still More Quotation
●Our detached and distant situation invites and
enables us to pursue a different course. If we
remain one people under an efficient
government. the period is not far off when we
may defy material injury from external
annoyance; when we may take such an
attitude as will cause the neutrality we may at
any time resolve upon to be scrupulously
respected; when belligerent nations, under
the impossibility of making acquisitions upon
us, will not lightly hazard the giving us
9. Quotation Concluded
●Why forego the advantages of so
peculiar a situation? Why quit our own
to stand upon foreign ground? Why, by
interweaving our destiny with that of any
part of Europe, entangle our peace and
prosperity in the toils of European
ambition, rivalship, interest, humor or
caprice?”
10. The Farewell Address and the
Spanish-American War
●You might think that the Farewell Address
has nothing to do with the war. It doesn’t
mention going to war over Cuba.
●But the key point is that it says we will avoid
involvement in European power politics. We
will not attempt to become a world power.
●Until 1898, we followed this policy. The
Spanish-American War broke with
Washington’s principle because the US was,
especially with taking the Philippines,
involved in imperialist rivalries with the
11. Objections and Replies
●You might think that the War of 1812 was an
exception: wasn’t the US at war with Britain?
Yes, but this was a war against British
interference with our trade and sailors and
aimed at conquest of Canada. It was not an
attempt to intervene in European politics.
●Kagan says that Washington intended his
policy to be temporary. America would stay
out of world politics until it became stronger.
But this isn’t what Washington said.
12. The Monroe Doctrine
●Supporters of the War appealed to another
famous guideline for American foreign policy,
the Monroe Doctrine. (1823) They said that
this established that the US was the dominant
power in the Americas. Europeans were no
longer free to colonize in the Americas
●The Polk Corollary (1845) made this even
clearer. Polk said that considerations of the
European balance of power have no
application to the Americas. This was in
response to a French statement that it was
13. What’s Wrong with the
Argument
●The Monroe Doctrine can’t be used to claim
the Spanish-American War was in accord
with traditional American policy.
●The Monroe Doctrine did not apply to
European colonies that already existed. Thus,
it couldn’t be invoked to demand Cuban
independence.
●Also, Monroe reaffirmed that the US did not
want involvement in European politics.
14. Cuban Independence
Movement
●In Cuba, there had been a 10 year war for
independence that ended unsuccessfully in
1878.
●Cuban grievances included too much profits
going to the Spanish government, preference
for Spaniards, and slavery (abolished 1886)
●Some but not all of the Cubans favored closer
ties with the US. There were Americans, e.g.,
James G. Blaine ( Secretary of State under
Garfield, Arthur, and Harrison) who wanted to
15. Rebellion of 1895
●A new revolt broke out in 1895. This was led
by Jose Marti, a noted writer, and on the
military side by Maximo Gomez. A Polish
military man who had lived in the US, General
Carlos Roloff, was also important.
●The rebellion aimed to end the dominance of
the planter class and promote equality for
blacks. Marti was also opposed to US
dominance, but he was killed in battle in
1895.
16. Spanish Reaction to the
Revolt
●Spain regarded Cuba as integral to its
Empire. It wasn’t regarded as a colony but as
a part of Spain.
●The Prime Minister of Spain at the time of the
rebellion was Antonio Canovas del Castillo.
He was a noted Conservative who played a
main role in the restoration of the Bourbon
dynasty to rule in Spain.
●He thought that preservation of the Spanish
Empire was essential. Spain needed to retain
at least some of its possessions in order to
17. Spanish Reaction Continued
●Canovas accordingly was anxious to end the
revolt.
●His first choice for general in Cuba, Arsenio
Martinez de Campos, had been the victor of
the 1878 War. His strategy was to confine the
revolt to the Eastern provinces.
●This didn’t satisfy Canovas because Havana
and other wealthy areas in the West were still
in revolt. He replaced Campos.
18. General Weyler
●The replacement was General Valeriano
Weyler. He was known as “Butcher Weyler”.
He pursued a policy of “reconcentration”. This
meant that the rural population was forced
into concentration camps. More than 300,000
were forced into the camps and thousands of
them died.
●The British originated the use of
concentration camps in the Boer war.
●Weyler was influenced in his tough tactics by
General Sherman. Weyler had served as a
19. American Reaction to Weyler
●Weyler’s policies were effective, but they
aroused a great deal of angry protest in the
US.
●The campaign against Weyler was led by two
rival New York newspaper owners, William
Randolph Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer. Their
papers gave lurid accounts of Spanish
atrocities and urged war. They in part did this
to promote newspaper circulation.
20. Rise of European Imperialism
●Beginning in the 1870s, there was a vast
expansion of European empire-building.
England led the way, with France not far
behind. Italy and Germany were also
involved, on a lesser level.
●Some influential Americans thought that the
US should get involved in empire-building.
Rothbard stressed that some businessmen
thought that colonies would offer a market for
American goods.
21. Lodge and Roosevelt
●Two influential Americans who favored
imperialism were Senator Henry Cabot
Lodge of Massachusetts and Theodore
Roosevelt of New York.
●Both of them favored going to war with
Spain. Lodge was influenced by racial
theories that said the Anglo-Saxon race
was rising, and the Latin race declining.
22. Roosevelt and Mahan
●Roosevelt was influenced by the famous
theorist of naval power, Admiral Alfred Thayer
Mahan.
●Mahan wrote The Influence of Sea Power
Upon History, 1660-1783 (1890). Mahan
stressed the role of sea power in building up
British power.
●Roosevelt accepted Mahan’s views that sea
power was essential to national greatness
and that control of naval bases in key
locations was needed to achieve sea power.
23. Prospects for Peace
●Despite the forces for war, the outbreak of
war wasn’t inevitable. Weyler was replaced in
1897.
●Also, the conservative Canovas was
assassinated and his replacement was his
perpetual rival, the more liberal Praxedes
Sagasta.
●The Spanish, in response to American
demands for better treatment for the Cubans,
seemed willing to negotiate, although they
24. The Road to War
●President McKinley, who had been a Union
general, was reluctant to get involved in a
war.
●In January, 1898, the battleship USS Maine
was sent from Florida to Havana harbor to
protect American interests. The Spanish
weren’t happy about this.
●On February 9, 1898, the New York Journal
(Hearst’s paper) published a letter from the
Spanish Minister to Washington, Enrique
Dupuy de Lome, that disparaged McKinley as
25. Road to War Continued
●On February 15, 1898, the Maine blew
up. The Hearst and Pulitzer papers
immediately claimed the Spanish did it,
but this has never been proved.
●McKinley sent a note in March
demanding that the Spanish suspend
hostilities in Cuba. He threatened war if
they didn’t.
26. McKinley’s War Message
●In April, McKinley asked Congress for a
declaration of war, because the Spanish
hadn’t met his demands. In the last few lines
of his speech, he had to admit the Spanish
had met his terms.
●“Yesterday, and since the preparation of the
foregoing message, official information was
received by me that the latest decree of the
queen regent of Spain directs General
Blanco, in order to prepare and facilitate
peace, to proclaim a suspension of hostilities,
27. American Imperialism
●Once war started, Theodore Roosevelt, who
was assistant secretary of the navy, directed
Admiral Thomas Dewey to seize Manila
Harbor.
●At first the American cooperated with the
Philippine independence movement led by
Aguinaldo. Later they refused to turn over the
government to the Filipinos, and a lengthy
guerilla war against them resulted.
●The Americans conducted the war in a brutal
fashion. Many people were killed and