On august 26th the first cabinet of President Pedro Castillo will present itself in Peru Congress to get an approval vote for its policies. But there are some doubts about it getting the approval from the Congress because several members of the cabinet are being questioned by the opposition parties and the public opinion. A Minister of Foreign Affairs was asked to resign from the government following criticism by several sectors of society for what was called his “apology of terrorism”. So, even if the cabinet is confirmed, it will have a low approval rate among the public, and the possibility of Ministers being censured later by the Congress is high, and this will create political instability and uncertainty in the economy.
Peru suffered a lot with the COVID-19 pandemic, having accumulated up to now more than 197 thousand deaths, in a population of 32 million people. Its economy was hard hit last year, declining at an annual rate of 11.1%. And there is a high probability that a third wave of contagion of COVID-19 will hit the country perhaps at the end of next month. Given the fact that the vaccination rate of the population is less than 25% of the total, and there are doubts about the public health system being able to cope with that, the effects in the society and the economy also could be troublesome.
An analysis of the new government of President Pedro Castillo will be provided in this article. It will focus in the economic and political aspect, and the perspectives of its economic and foreign policy.
Brazil is the largest country in South America with a population of over 200 million people. It has a diverse economy and is considered an emerging market. Brazil has a federal republic government system and maintains strong regional partnerships through organizations like Mercosur and UNASUL. Key industries include technology, automotive, oil and gas, and agriculture. Maintaining political and economic stability while continuing growth will be important for Brazil going forward.
The political environment can positively or negatively impact businesses depending on the prevailing situation in a country. Democratic countries tend to be better for business as elected governments implement policies in citizens' interests, while dictatorships bring instability and uncertainty. A stable political situation attracts more investment. Politicians control trade policies and relations, so good terms between businesses and politicians can facilitate success. The rules and regulations governing trade are determined by politicians.
Re-Engineering the fiscal Budget of PakistanWaqas Siddiqui
The National Budgeting process of Pakistan fails to entertain and cater the national aspiration of the fiscal demands and people, hence severely disappoint year by year the people and the institutions of country every time. To fill this , this paper considers a number of Problem areas in Budgeting Policies, Processes, and Priorities along with concise yet clear indicative studies.
This document provides an intelligence brief on the economic growth prospects of several countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. It discusses factors supporting and hindering growth for each country, including natural resources, infrastructure development, political stability, education and health issues, corruption, and dependence on commodity prices and foreign investment. Key challenges across many countries are high unemployment, especially among youth; inadequate power supply and infrastructure bottlenecks; and the impacts of HIV/AIDS on the labor force and economic growth.
Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2019 SABC News
The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement is an important piece of our budgeting process. The first statement was published on the second of December 1997, during the first democratic administration led by President Nelson Mandela.
This document contains a research analysis on the Philippines economy submitted by Armia P. Leonardo to her economics instructor. The analysis discusses several topics:
1) The Aquino administration has improved governance and fiscal consolidation, contributing to growth, but threats remain like legal barriers to investment and energy shortages.
2) The government is working to protect the environment but many Filipinos do not care and improperly use natural resources, bringing problems like global warming.
3) Increasing social unrest and crime are major problems that hinder the economy and increase poverty, though the government tries to reduce crime.
The document includes articles, summaries, and critiques on the economy, and discussion questions analyzing the current state
Informe mensual del GRUPO CREDENDO donde se analizan las evoluciones o noticias más relevantes de diferentes países. En esta ocasión: India, Kazajistán, Rumania, Argentina, Nigeria y Arabia Saudí
Brazil is the largest country in South America with a population of over 200 million people. It has a diverse economy and is considered an emerging market. Brazil has a federal republic government system and maintains strong regional partnerships through organizations like Mercosur and UNASUL. Key industries include technology, automotive, oil and gas, and agriculture. Maintaining political and economic stability while continuing growth will be important for Brazil going forward.
The political environment can positively or negatively impact businesses depending on the prevailing situation in a country. Democratic countries tend to be better for business as elected governments implement policies in citizens' interests, while dictatorships bring instability and uncertainty. A stable political situation attracts more investment. Politicians control trade policies and relations, so good terms between businesses and politicians can facilitate success. The rules and regulations governing trade are determined by politicians.
Re-Engineering the fiscal Budget of PakistanWaqas Siddiqui
The National Budgeting process of Pakistan fails to entertain and cater the national aspiration of the fiscal demands and people, hence severely disappoint year by year the people and the institutions of country every time. To fill this , this paper considers a number of Problem areas in Budgeting Policies, Processes, and Priorities along with concise yet clear indicative studies.
This document provides an intelligence brief on the economic growth prospects of several countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. It discusses factors supporting and hindering growth for each country, including natural resources, infrastructure development, political stability, education and health issues, corruption, and dependence on commodity prices and foreign investment. Key challenges across many countries are high unemployment, especially among youth; inadequate power supply and infrastructure bottlenecks; and the impacts of HIV/AIDS on the labor force and economic growth.
Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2019 SABC News
The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement is an important piece of our budgeting process. The first statement was published on the second of December 1997, during the first democratic administration led by President Nelson Mandela.
This document contains a research analysis on the Philippines economy submitted by Armia P. Leonardo to her economics instructor. The analysis discusses several topics:
1) The Aquino administration has improved governance and fiscal consolidation, contributing to growth, but threats remain like legal barriers to investment and energy shortages.
2) The government is working to protect the environment but many Filipinos do not care and improperly use natural resources, bringing problems like global warming.
3) Increasing social unrest and crime are major problems that hinder the economy and increase poverty, though the government tries to reduce crime.
The document includes articles, summaries, and critiques on the economy, and discussion questions analyzing the current state
Informe mensual del GRUPO CREDENDO donde se analizan las evoluciones o noticias más relevantes de diferentes países. En esta ocasión: India, Kazajistán, Rumania, Argentina, Nigeria y Arabia Saudí
This document analyzes Brazil's standing as an investment destination by evaluating its progress in basic requirements, efficiency enhancers, and technological readiness. Regarding basic healthcare and education requirements, Brazil has a two-tiered public and private healthcare system and has experienced improvements in health indicators like life expectancy and reduced infant mortality in recent decades. However, poor health still reduces worker productivity and earnings. Overall the analysis evaluates where Brazil excels and needs improvement across various factors important for competitiveness.
India has undergone significant domestic transformations that have enhanced its potential role as a global power. It has experienced rapid economic growth, greater political competition, and military expansion. These changes have impacted India's foreign policy pursuits of security, regional influence, and global governance. Key will be India's ability to manage relations with neighbors like Pakistan and major powers like the US and China. If India continues economic growth and pragmatic diplomacy, it could substantially increase its international role over the next 15 years. However, setbacks like renewed India-Pakistan conflicts could undermine its trajectory.
Political Economy of a Post-Colonial State; Economic Development of PakistanShahid Hussain Raja
Despite all the ups and downs, Pakistan is now the 26th largest economy in the world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity, (44th largest in terms of nominal GDP). With per capita income of US$ 4550, Pakistan occupies at 140th place on this count in the world, thanks to her burgeoning population of 200 million people. Pakistan is one of the Next Eleven, the eleven countries that, along with the BRICs, have a potential to become one of the world's large economies in the 21st century. By 2050, with an estimated GDP of $3.33 trillion, Pakistan is expected to become world’s 18th largest economy, according to Goldman Sachs. However, this progress is not as impressive as it looks or should have been keeping her potential. Similarly her dismal social indicators, structural anomalies and income disparities leave much to be desired.
This presentation sums up the development experience—what Pakistan did marvellously, what it did marginally and where it failed miserably during her development journey. It ends with an the lessons other developing countries can learn from this development experience of Pakistan.
This document provides an analysis report on Brazil submitted by students to their professor. It includes an acknowledgment, table of contents, and sections on Brazil's introduction, background, inflationary conditions, growth rate, current account, and macroeconomic overview. Some key points are that Brazil has the 10th largest economy in the world, experienced GDP growth of 2.2% in 2013 but contraction of 0.5% in Q3 2013, had an inflation rate of 5.91% in December 2013 with food and transport prices rising the most, and recorded a current account deficit of $8.68 billion in December 2013.
This document is a manifesto from the Pakistan Muslim League (N) outlining their economic agenda and plans for reviving Pakistan's economy. It discusses the major economic challenges currently facing Pakistan like low growth, high inflation, poverty, and unemployment. It then outlines PML(N)'s priorities and plans to double GDP growth, increase investment levels, develop key sectors like energy and agriculture, and attract overseas Pakistani investments. Specific targets are set for reducing the budget and trade deficits, inflation, and increasing tax revenues.
This document compares occupations in business administration between Puerto Rico and the United States. It finds that while both places will see rising employment in these fields in coming years, average hourly wages are about half as high in Puerto Rico compared to the US. The largest difference is for general managers of operations. Credit analyst positions are most similar between the two locations. Business professions overall will have high demand in Puerto Rico's job market in the coming decade.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
Some facts about economics here in the philippinesIan Paje
The Philippine economy has seen inflation rates of 3.1% in 2012 and 4.7% in 2011, with GDP deflator reaching a maximum of 53.34% in 1984 and minimum of 1.96% in 1967. The country has an economic freedom score of 60.1, ranking it 89th globally and 16th in Asia-Pacific, with improvements in seven freedoms offset by deteriorations in property rights. While the economy has grown 5% annually over five years through government reforms, lingering challenges will require deeper commitment to reforms such as further reducing corruption.
Session 4 Youth Unemployment China Presentationwbeap
The document summarizes challenges around youth unemployment in China and proposes a 4E strategy to address it: Employment Creation, Entrepreneurship, Employability, and Equal Opportunity. It outlines specific government programs and policies to promote each element of the strategy. Priority groups are college graduates and rural migrant youth. The All-China Youth Federation plays a key role in coordinating efforts through its large network across China. Future plans include advocating for a national youth employment policy and expanding programs to promote entrepreneurship and international cooperation.
The document provides an overview and outlook for the Indian economy and fiscal year 2018. Some key points:
1. The economic survey for 2016-2017 used big data analytics to gain new insights about the economy, such as estimates of annual work-related migration being double previous census figures.
2. Growth in the first half of FY2017 slowed to 7.2% due to a sharp decline in fixed investment. Inflation moderated as food prices decreased. The external position remains robust.
3. For FY2018, growth is expected to remain in the 6.75-7.5% range. Exports are expected to recover as global growth increases. Private consumption growth is uncertain due to
This document provides information about Group 6B's project on analyzing the macroeconomic policies of Brazil. It outlines the key aspects they will focus on, referred to as CCCF - Capital Flows, Competitive Advantage, Communication, and Fiscal Policy. The document then provides details on each of these topics as they relate to Brazil, including sections on the country's history with capital flows, competitive advantages according to Porter's Diamond model, developments in communication and IT, and an overview of Brazil's fiscal policies and tax system.
China has experienced phenomenal economic development over the last 30 years through an approach of scale, speed, and low cost. It has rapidly built up huge industrial capacities, infrastructure networks like highways and airports, and power generation capabilities. Decision making and implementation are very quick due to a single political party system and emphasis on execution without questioning. This fast growth has made China the world's second largest economy and third largest trading nation.
China has a large land area and long borders with many neighboring countries. It has a diverse terrain and climate. The country's economy has grown rapidly in recent decades and it now leads the BRICS economies. China has a socialist market economy and continues to transition from a centrally planned system. The banking, insurance, and securities sectors are important and regulated.
It is widely accepted that Indian economy is recovering, albeit slowly, from the disruptions created by demonetization (November 2016) and implementation of GST (July 2017). The GDP growth is forecast to recover from below 6% in FY17 to more than 7% in FY19. At this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy amongst all major global economies.
The positives are all well known and appreciated by markets and global agencies, as the entire government machinery is busy marketing these.
Nonetheless, for investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.
1. The document discusses a plan presented by Gustavo Vélez to members of Congress recommending the establishment of a Federal Fiscal Control Board to oversee Puerto Rico's finances and implement structural economic reforms.
2. The plan recommends that the board be limited to reorganizing public finances, implementing fiscal and government reforms, and increasing transparency. It also calls for an organized debt restructuring process and reforms to the pension systems and economic development policies.
3. Vélez acknowledges asking Congress for oversight is not ideal but argues local politicians have failed to enact real solutions and a federal board could help transition Puerto Rico to better governance.
The document discusses China's economic development and unemployment rate. It notes that China experienced rapid economic growth after economic reforms in 1978. China joined the WTO in 2001 and became the world's factory due to its large labor force and resources. In 2009, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the world. However, inflation increased to its highest level from 2009 to 2011 despite government efforts. While China has high GDP growth, its average worker income remains below international standards, and economic development has not always benefited workers.
This document provides an economic history of Pakistan from 1947 to 2013. Some key points:
- In 1947, Pakistan was predominantly agricultural but lost East Pakistan in 1971, which was its majority population province and major economic contributor.
- Under Ayub Khan from 1958-1968, Pakistan experienced significant economic growth and industrialization, though it benefited some regions more than others.
- The 1970s saw economic struggles due to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971 and global recessions.
- Economic reforms in the 1980s expanded industrialization and the service sector became dominant.
- The 2000s saw periods of growth under Musharraf but also economic issues like rising inflation.
On august 26th the first cabinet of President Pedro Castillo will present itself in Peru Congress to get an approval vote for its policies. But there are some doubts about it getting the approval from the Congress because several members of the cabinet are being questioned by the opposition parties and the public opinion. A Minister of Foreign Affairs was asked to resign from the government following criticism by several sectors of society for what was called his “apology of terrorism”. So, even if the cabinet is confirmed, it will have a low approval rate among the public, and the possibility of Ministers being censured later by the Congress is high, and this will create political instability and uncertainty in the economy.
Peru suffered a lot with the COVID-19 pandemic, having accumulated up to now more than 197 thousand deaths, in a population of 32 million people. Its economy was hard hit last year, declining at an annual rate of 11.1%. And there is a high probability that a third wave of contagion of COVID-19 will hit the country perhaps at the end of next month. Given the fact that the vaccination rate of the population is less than 25% of the total, and there are doubts about the public health system being able to cope with that, the effects in the society and the economy also could be troublesome.
An analysis of the new government of President Pedro Castillo will be provided in this article. It will focus in the economic and political aspect, and the perspectives of its economic and foreign policy.
The document is Burson-Marsteller's February 2018 monthly newsletter. It provides an overview of Burson-Marsteller, a global public relations and public affairs firm. The newsletter also profiles the latest political developments in Brazil, including updates on presidential candidate Ciro Gomes and changes to electoral campaign financing laws. Additionally, it discusses the military intervention in Rio de Janeiro and divisions within Brazil's security and justice sectors.
Jamestown Trends + Views Peru - 20130722 Ferhat Guven
- Peru's economy has performed well over the last decade, but its political system remains dysfunctional, with individuals rather than institutions dominating politics.
- The possibility of First Lady Nadine Heredia running for president in 2016 is a major focus of media attention and controversy, with polls showing most Peruvians opposed to the idea.
- Support for President Humala has dropped partly due to perceptions that he aims to perpetuate power for himself and his wife, as well as recent economic slowing, adding to the political intrigue.
This document analyzes Brazil's standing as an investment destination by evaluating its progress in basic requirements, efficiency enhancers, and technological readiness. Regarding basic healthcare and education requirements, Brazil has a two-tiered public and private healthcare system and has experienced improvements in health indicators like life expectancy and reduced infant mortality in recent decades. However, poor health still reduces worker productivity and earnings. Overall the analysis evaluates where Brazil excels and needs improvement across various factors important for competitiveness.
India has undergone significant domestic transformations that have enhanced its potential role as a global power. It has experienced rapid economic growth, greater political competition, and military expansion. These changes have impacted India's foreign policy pursuits of security, regional influence, and global governance. Key will be India's ability to manage relations with neighbors like Pakistan and major powers like the US and China. If India continues economic growth and pragmatic diplomacy, it could substantially increase its international role over the next 15 years. However, setbacks like renewed India-Pakistan conflicts could undermine its trajectory.
Political Economy of a Post-Colonial State; Economic Development of PakistanShahid Hussain Raja
Despite all the ups and downs, Pakistan is now the 26th largest economy in the world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity, (44th largest in terms of nominal GDP). With per capita income of US$ 4550, Pakistan occupies at 140th place on this count in the world, thanks to her burgeoning population of 200 million people. Pakistan is one of the Next Eleven, the eleven countries that, along with the BRICs, have a potential to become one of the world's large economies in the 21st century. By 2050, with an estimated GDP of $3.33 trillion, Pakistan is expected to become world’s 18th largest economy, according to Goldman Sachs. However, this progress is not as impressive as it looks or should have been keeping her potential. Similarly her dismal social indicators, structural anomalies and income disparities leave much to be desired.
This presentation sums up the development experience—what Pakistan did marvellously, what it did marginally and where it failed miserably during her development journey. It ends with an the lessons other developing countries can learn from this development experience of Pakistan.
This document provides an analysis report on Brazil submitted by students to their professor. It includes an acknowledgment, table of contents, and sections on Brazil's introduction, background, inflationary conditions, growth rate, current account, and macroeconomic overview. Some key points are that Brazil has the 10th largest economy in the world, experienced GDP growth of 2.2% in 2013 but contraction of 0.5% in Q3 2013, had an inflation rate of 5.91% in December 2013 with food and transport prices rising the most, and recorded a current account deficit of $8.68 billion in December 2013.
This document is a manifesto from the Pakistan Muslim League (N) outlining their economic agenda and plans for reviving Pakistan's economy. It discusses the major economic challenges currently facing Pakistan like low growth, high inflation, poverty, and unemployment. It then outlines PML(N)'s priorities and plans to double GDP growth, increase investment levels, develop key sectors like energy and agriculture, and attract overseas Pakistani investments. Specific targets are set for reducing the budget and trade deficits, inflation, and increasing tax revenues.
This document compares occupations in business administration between Puerto Rico and the United States. It finds that while both places will see rising employment in these fields in coming years, average hourly wages are about half as high in Puerto Rico compared to the US. The largest difference is for general managers of operations. Credit analyst positions are most similar between the two locations. Business professions overall will have high demand in Puerto Rico's job market in the coming decade.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
Some facts about economics here in the philippinesIan Paje
The Philippine economy has seen inflation rates of 3.1% in 2012 and 4.7% in 2011, with GDP deflator reaching a maximum of 53.34% in 1984 and minimum of 1.96% in 1967. The country has an economic freedom score of 60.1, ranking it 89th globally and 16th in Asia-Pacific, with improvements in seven freedoms offset by deteriorations in property rights. While the economy has grown 5% annually over five years through government reforms, lingering challenges will require deeper commitment to reforms such as further reducing corruption.
Session 4 Youth Unemployment China Presentationwbeap
The document summarizes challenges around youth unemployment in China and proposes a 4E strategy to address it: Employment Creation, Entrepreneurship, Employability, and Equal Opportunity. It outlines specific government programs and policies to promote each element of the strategy. Priority groups are college graduates and rural migrant youth. The All-China Youth Federation plays a key role in coordinating efforts through its large network across China. Future plans include advocating for a national youth employment policy and expanding programs to promote entrepreneurship and international cooperation.
The document provides an overview and outlook for the Indian economy and fiscal year 2018. Some key points:
1. The economic survey for 2016-2017 used big data analytics to gain new insights about the economy, such as estimates of annual work-related migration being double previous census figures.
2. Growth in the first half of FY2017 slowed to 7.2% due to a sharp decline in fixed investment. Inflation moderated as food prices decreased. The external position remains robust.
3. For FY2018, growth is expected to remain in the 6.75-7.5% range. Exports are expected to recover as global growth increases. Private consumption growth is uncertain due to
This document provides information about Group 6B's project on analyzing the macroeconomic policies of Brazil. It outlines the key aspects they will focus on, referred to as CCCF - Capital Flows, Competitive Advantage, Communication, and Fiscal Policy. The document then provides details on each of these topics as they relate to Brazil, including sections on the country's history with capital flows, competitive advantages according to Porter's Diamond model, developments in communication and IT, and an overview of Brazil's fiscal policies and tax system.
China has experienced phenomenal economic development over the last 30 years through an approach of scale, speed, and low cost. It has rapidly built up huge industrial capacities, infrastructure networks like highways and airports, and power generation capabilities. Decision making and implementation are very quick due to a single political party system and emphasis on execution without questioning. This fast growth has made China the world's second largest economy and third largest trading nation.
China has a large land area and long borders with many neighboring countries. It has a diverse terrain and climate. The country's economy has grown rapidly in recent decades and it now leads the BRICS economies. China has a socialist market economy and continues to transition from a centrally planned system. The banking, insurance, and securities sectors are important and regulated.
It is widely accepted that Indian economy is recovering, albeit slowly, from the disruptions created by demonetization (November 2016) and implementation of GST (July 2017). The GDP growth is forecast to recover from below 6% in FY17 to more than 7% in FY19. At this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy amongst all major global economies.
The positives are all well known and appreciated by markets and global agencies, as the entire government machinery is busy marketing these.
Nonetheless, for investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.
1. The document discusses a plan presented by Gustavo Vélez to members of Congress recommending the establishment of a Federal Fiscal Control Board to oversee Puerto Rico's finances and implement structural economic reforms.
2. The plan recommends that the board be limited to reorganizing public finances, implementing fiscal and government reforms, and increasing transparency. It also calls for an organized debt restructuring process and reforms to the pension systems and economic development policies.
3. Vélez acknowledges asking Congress for oversight is not ideal but argues local politicians have failed to enact real solutions and a federal board could help transition Puerto Rico to better governance.
The document discusses China's economic development and unemployment rate. It notes that China experienced rapid economic growth after economic reforms in 1978. China joined the WTO in 2001 and became the world's factory due to its large labor force and resources. In 2009, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the world. However, inflation increased to its highest level from 2009 to 2011 despite government efforts. While China has high GDP growth, its average worker income remains below international standards, and economic development has not always benefited workers.
This document provides an economic history of Pakistan from 1947 to 2013. Some key points:
- In 1947, Pakistan was predominantly agricultural but lost East Pakistan in 1971, which was its majority population province and major economic contributor.
- Under Ayub Khan from 1958-1968, Pakistan experienced significant economic growth and industrialization, though it benefited some regions more than others.
- The 1970s saw economic struggles due to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971 and global recessions.
- Economic reforms in the 1980s expanded industrialization and the service sector became dominant.
- The 2000s saw periods of growth under Musharraf but also economic issues like rising inflation.
On august 26th the first cabinet of President Pedro Castillo will present itself in Peru Congress to get an approval vote for its policies. But there are some doubts about it getting the approval from the Congress because several members of the cabinet are being questioned by the opposition parties and the public opinion. A Minister of Foreign Affairs was asked to resign from the government following criticism by several sectors of society for what was called his “apology of terrorism”. So, even if the cabinet is confirmed, it will have a low approval rate among the public, and the possibility of Ministers being censured later by the Congress is high, and this will create political instability and uncertainty in the economy.
Peru suffered a lot with the COVID-19 pandemic, having accumulated up to now more than 197 thousand deaths, in a population of 32 million people. Its economy was hard hit last year, declining at an annual rate of 11.1%. And there is a high probability that a third wave of contagion of COVID-19 will hit the country perhaps at the end of next month. Given the fact that the vaccination rate of the population is less than 25% of the total, and there are doubts about the public health system being able to cope with that, the effects in the society and the economy also could be troublesome.
An analysis of the new government of President Pedro Castillo will be provided in this article. It will focus in the economic and political aspect, and the perspectives of its economic and foreign policy.
The document is Burson-Marsteller's February 2018 monthly newsletter. It provides an overview of Burson-Marsteller, a global public relations and public affairs firm. The newsletter also profiles the latest political developments in Brazil, including updates on presidential candidate Ciro Gomes and changes to electoral campaign financing laws. Additionally, it discusses the military intervention in Rio de Janeiro and divisions within Brazil's security and justice sectors.
Jamestown Trends + Views Peru - 20130722 Ferhat Guven
- Peru's economy has performed well over the last decade, but its political system remains dysfunctional, with individuals rather than institutions dominating politics.
- The possibility of First Lady Nadine Heredia running for president in 2016 is a major focus of media attention and controversy, with polls showing most Peruvians opposed to the idea.
- Support for President Humala has dropped partly due to perceptions that he aims to perpetuate power for himself and his wife, as well as recent economic slowing, adding to the political intrigue.
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a fully revised report on Argentina, where the end of 12 years of continuous
rule by the Kirchner dynasty appears to signal a retreat from the heterodox populism that characterized the policy approach
of Nestor Kirchner and Christina Fernandez. The pro-government FPV lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, and its presidential candidate
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
Michel temer removal and new constitution to re order the political system of...Fernando Alcoforado
The document argues that Brazil is facing a political and economic crisis due to corruption scandals and a flawed political system. It calls for President Michel Temer to be removed from power and for a new exclusive National Constituent Assembly to be convened to reform Brazil's political system and institutions. The goals of the new Assembly would be to carry out political reforms, reform the state and public administration, ban corrupt politicians and parties, and convene new elections. It believes these changes are needed to address Brazil's current problems and reorder the country on new bases.
Analysis of the most viable candidates to the presidency of the republic of b...Fernando Alcoforado
Considerando o fato de o Brasil, como organização econômica, social e política, se encontrar em desintegração cujos sinais são evidentes em todas as partes do País e que a estagnação econômica atual tende a se agravar no Brasil com a elevação do desemprego e a redução das receitas do Estado que poderão inviabilizar sua capacidade de intervenção na economia, a eleição de um Presidente da República que não seja capaz de superar a crise atual e reativar a economia brasileira pode levar o País à convulsão social. Para evitar este cenário, é necessário eleger um Presidente da República que aumente a capacidade do governo brasileiro e das instituições políticas em geral de oferecer respostas eficazes para superação da crise política, econômica e social em que se debate a nação brasileira.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff’s second term has gotten off to a very rocky start, with a widening corruption scandal at state-owned Petrobras that poses a threat to the unity of Rousseff’s legislative coalition. Her political troubles come at a most inopportune time. A sluggish economy and a pre-election spending spree contributed to a widening of the fiscal deficit last year, and the government is under pressure to reassure
The document presents the CPI (Communist Party of India) manifesto for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in India. It summarizes the key issues facing the country including a deepening economic crisis, rising prices, unemployment, and growing economic disparity under the neo-liberal policies pursued by successive governments. It criticizes the current UPA government for being corrupt and subservient to corporate interests. The manifesto calls for protecting secular democracy and economic sovereignty, generating jobs, ensuring food security and healthcare for all, and implementing land reforms and pro-farmer policies. It presents an alternative socio-economic program focusing on public sector, education, social security, women and minority rights.
The document discusses Senator Aquilino Pimentel's proposal to amend the Philippine constitution to shift to a federal system of government from the current unitary system. It aims to spur economic development and resolve conflicts like in Mindanao. The proposal outlines 11 federal states but has faced criticism that federalism will not necessarily lead to economic success and may divide the country further. Some argue the root causes of underdevelopment and rebellion are issues like inequitable wealth distribution, corruption, and lack of land reform, and a system change alone will not address these issues. Overall, there are doubts that federalism is the solution and alternative options like strengthening local governance may better achieve development goals.
The document provides an overview of Myanmar's socio-political and economic situation. Key points include:
- Myanmar has embarked on political and economic reforms but remains under military influence. Elections in 2010 were not free or fair.
- The economy suffers from rural poverty, corruption, and underinvestment. Growth is driven by sectors like gas, construction, and services.
- Myanmar has potential for agriculture and trade due to resources and location but faces challenges around infrastructure, access to services, and poverty.
The document summarizes recent polling data on the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. It finds that former president Lula maintains the highest voting intentions at 30%, though he is barred from running. His replacement as the Workers' Party candidate, Haddad, pulls 19% in a scenario without Lula. Jair Bolsonaro is next highest at 17% or 19% depending on the scenario. The document analyzes the policy positions and viability of the two leading candidates to replace Lula, Marina Silva and Bolsonaro. However, it argues that neither present solutions to Brazil's deep economic problems and that alternatives like Ciro Gomes could better promote structural changes and a development model privileging national interests over international capital.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Evolution and Nature of Philippine Political PartyBori Guillermo
The document discusses the evolution and characteristics of the political party system in the Philippines. It begins with a brief history of early political parties established during the American colonial period and describes the four different party systems that have emerged over time. It then analyzes key aspects of the current multiparty system including common practices like party switching. The document concludes by outlining the provisions of the Party-List System Act that aims to strengthen political representation through the election of sectoral representatives.
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The new government in Peru: Perspectives of its economic and foreign policy
1. The new government inPeru: Perspectives of its economic and foreign
policy
CarlosAquino*
On august 26th the first cabinet of President Pedro Castillo will present itself in Peru
Congress to get an approval vote for its policies. But there are some doubts about it
getting the approval from the Congress because several members of the cabinet are
being questioned by the opposition parties and the public opinion. A Minister of
Foreign Affairs was asked to resign from the government following criticismby several
sectors of society for what was called his “apology of terrorism”. So, even if the cabinet
is confirmed, it will have a low approval rate among the public, and the possibility of
Ministers being censured later by the Congress is high, and this will create political
instability and uncertainty in the economy.
Peru suffered a lot with the COVID-19 pandemic, having accumulated up to now more
than 197 thousand deaths, in a population of 32 million people. Its economy was hard
hit last year, declining at an annual rate of 11.1%. And there is a high probability that a
third wave of contagion of COVID-19 will hit the country perhaps at the end of next
month. Given the fact that the vaccination rate of the population is less than 25% of
the total, and there are doubts about the public health systembeing able to cope with
that, the effects in the society and the economy also could be troublesome.
An analysis of the new government of President Pedro Castillo will be provided in this
article. It will focus in the economic and political aspect, and the perspectives of its
economic and foreign policy.
1. Political situation of the country. -
Pedro Castillo was elected in a runoff and won by a margin of just 44 thousand votes of
a total of 17.5 million votes (he got 50.125% of the total). In the first round he got only
19% of the total votes. His triumph was due more to people voting for him to avoid
electing Keiko Fujimori, whose father, a former President, is accused of corruption and
human rights violations (and she herself has also been accused of corruption). Castillo,
a schoolteacher with no previous experience in public office, was elected in the ticket
of the political party “Peru Libre”, a left party whose main leaders are Marxist-Leninist.
In a one chamber Congress of 130 members, Peru Libre has only 37 representatives, it
is the largest party in the Congress, and together with its political ally, “Juntos por el
Peru”, a leftist party which has 5 votes, the two have 42 votes. There are two political
parties, “Somos Peru” and “Partido Morado”, that are considered close to the
government, and this two together has 9 representatives, for a total of 51 votes for the
government.
Of the remaining parties, the second biggest party in Congress is “Fuerza Popular” of
Keiko Fujimori, which has 24 votes. With the party “Avanza Pais” that has 10 votes and
“Renovacion Popular” with 9 votes, the three are considered right leaning parties and
of strong opposition to the government, having them a total of 43 votes. There are
2. three additional parties considered in the center of the political spectrum: “Accion
Popular”, with 16 votes, “Alianza para el Progreso” with 15 votes, and “Podemos Peru”
with 5 votes.
As can be seen there are ten political parties in Congress and the biggest, the
governing party, with its ally has just 42 votes in a total of 130, around 32% of the
total. The two parties must get votes from other parties to pass a law that usually
requires more than half of the total votes, around 66. To get the approval of the new
Cabinet it also needs 66 votes.
The governing party has already suffered defeats in the Congress. It presented a list to
win the Congress Board of Directors but got only 50 votes, being defeated by one of
the lists presented by the opposition, who got 69 votes. Also, the Congress elects 24
Committees and the most important ones, as Budget, Constitution, and Oversight, are
in the hands of the opposition.
In the presidential period July 2016-july 2021 Peru Congress impeached a President
(and another resigned to office before being impeached) and given the strong
opposition of some parties to the government, there are talks about the possibility of
impeaching also President Castillo. For this to happen a total of 87 votes are needed.
Getting 87 votes are not easy so now some opposition parties are talking about
questioning or censuring some cabinet ministers. The new cabinet that will present on
August 26 to the plenum of Congress has several Ministers that are being criticized and
probably could get censured. Even the President of the Cabinet is being criticized, and
he, with at least 5 Ministers: Defense, Culture, Labor, Internal Affairs, and Transport
and Communications, are said to be unfit for office because of their lack of experience
in the field, or for having legal problems, or for being apologists of terrorism1. The first
named Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hector Bejar, was forced to resign with less than 3
weeks in office because he was accused of apology of terrorism and for blaming the
Peru Navy of having initiated the terrorism in the country. He even said that the
Shining Path movement (Sendero Luminoso), that brought terror to Peru in the 1980s
and beginning of the 1990s, was in part a creation of the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA). Bejar himself, an 85-year person, spent several years in the 1960s in jail for
committing terrorist acts.
So, the political situation in Peru is not stable. With weak political parties, a divided
Congress, and strong opposition to the Castillo government, even if the new Cabinet is
approved, the possibility of Ministers being questioned and censured by the Congress
is almost certain. To question and censure a Minister 79 votes are needed. The
opposition certainly could get those votes.
The opposition to the government is not only because some Ministers are accused of
being unfit for office but mainly because the governing party Peru Libre wants to
1 The lastone being accused is the Minister of Labor. See RPP: https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/iber-
maravi-niega-responsabilidad-en-actos-terroristas-y-afirma-que-buscan-condenarlo-con-atestados-
policiales-noticia-1354062
3. change Peru’s Constitution and aims for a model like in Venezuela and Cuba, where
government role in the economy is strong and there are limits to the activity of the
private sector. Also, the opposition said that the real aim of changing the Constitution
through the election of a Constituent Assembly, as Peru Libre wants, is to change the
rules of political elections and allow the President and the governing party to stay in
office forever, like in Cuba and Venezuela.
That’s why the governing party has been accused of being communist. At least its main
leaders, as the General Secretary of the party, Vladimir Cerron, have shown their
admiration for the Cuba and Venezuela regime. Cerron influence in the party is strong,
and many analysts think that he is the real power behind the throne, and Castillo will
yield to him. Cerron created the party Peru Libre and Castillo was called to be its
candidate for the Presidency.
Precisely the call for changing Peru economic system advocated by Cerron, and other
party leaders, is bringing a lot of instability and affecting the economy. A look at this
situation is given below.
2. Economic situation. -
As was said before, Peru experienced one of the worst economic performances in the
world in 2020, with the economy declining 11.1%. The poverty rate increased in the
country from 22% in 2019 to around 30% at the end of 2020.
Peru is a middle-income country, with around 6,500 dollars income per capita. But its
economic structure is weak, with a low industrialization rate, and dependent on the
export of natural resources, that has in abundance, and on inflows of foreign
investment. But from the year 2000 to 2019 the economy grew without interruption
and was considered a star in the Latin American region (See graph 1 below). Its macro-
economic figures were impressive. A low inflation rate, low or nearly zero budget
deficit, high international foreign exchange reserves, and low level of external debt. Its
exports of goods increased from a value of 7 billion dollars in 2000 to around 46 billion
dollars in 2019.
4. Source: Peru Central Bank: Annual Report 2019; https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-
docs/Publications/Annual-Reports/2019/annual-report-2019-1.pdf
That was possible because from 1990 onwards Peru implemented economic reforms
to open more its economy to foreign competition, lowering import tariff rates,
welcoming foreign investment, making more flexible the labor market, and diminishing
the role of the state in the economy. State owned companies were privatized, and
many of them were bought by foreign investors, and Peru embarked in a string of free
trade agreements (FTA) with its main trade partners. Also, the country put more
emphasis in the Asia region, joining the APEC forum in 1998, and establishing FTAs
with China, South Korea, Japan, and recently ratified the CPTPP agreement.
As a result, now Asia is the most important market for Peru exports. In 2010 only 26%
of Peru exports went to Asia, but in 2020 around 46% went to that region. China has
become the main market, with 29% of total in 2020, and in a second and distant place
with only 13% of the total is the United States. And Asia importance is bound to
increase as it is the most important market for Peru exports that in a 70% are mainly
mineral, natural gas and petroleum, and fishmeal. Already in the first 6 months of this
year China accounted for 35% of Peru exports and US only 12%2.
But, despite the impressive economic growth and good export performance, Peru
economy suffered a lot in 2020 because of a combination of factors. First, the country
was in lockdown for many months because of the pandemic, paralyzing the economic
activity; second, as the economy has a high level of informality, with employment
calculated to be around 70% informal, many people lost their incomes; and third,
because of high income inequality, many people could not live and consume with the
economy paralyzed. To this it could be added the incompetence of the government in
managing the pandemic (for extending the lockdown of the economy without taking
the necessary measures to control the pandemic and avoid its propagation), and the
poor state of public health systemthat could not cope with the pandemic, resulting as
2 See Promperu statistics:https://exportemos.pe/promperustat/frmRanking_x_Pais.aspx
5. said before in more than 197 thousand deaths. Peru has the highest COVID-19 deaths
per capita in the world3.
The economy was supposed to recover and achieve pre pandemic levels this year or
the next, due, among other things, to a recovery of the world economy, as Peru
depends on a lot of this for its exports, but the situation began to change when in the
first round of elections in April Pedro Castillo came first in the ballot. His party plans to
change the rules of the game in the economy, by increasing the role of the state,
putting limits to the foreign investment participation, and especially his plans to
change the Constitution and its admiration of Cuba and Venezuela, made private
investors wary of him.
So, the Peru currency, the Sol, began losing value against the dollar, the Lima stock
exchange also decreased in value, and many people began taking its money from the
bank and changing it to dollars, or taking it outside the country. It is estimated that
around 8 billion dollars has left the country in the last months. Peru foreign exchange
reserves at the beginning of the year were about 73 billion dollars. Peru GDP is about
200 billion dollars. As Castillo won the Presidency in the runoff elections in June this
trend began to increase.
Besides the called “socialist agenda” of its economic policy, what make investors also
wary of Castillo’s regime is the sense that his government is not filling public offices
with capable people. As said before, many Ministers are being questioned for that, and
the proposal to lower salaries of high public officers (already its Ministers have said
they will receive only half of their salaries) and the fact that several posts have been
filled by people with no previous experience and of low qualifications, is creating more
economic uncertainty. Already several of them have resigned following criticismthat
they were not suitable for office (several Vice ministers and high-level officers for
example had to resign).
Peru has a problem specially because of a lack of a meritocratic systemin government,
and with each change of administration, governments posts are filled with people
belonging to the winning party (regardless of their merits). This is particularly
troublesome now, because the Peru Libre party has never been in office before, and its
General Secretary Vladimir Cerron was the Governor of a region in central Peru, but his
record of government is dismal (he was dismissed from office accused of corruption).
Corruption is an endemic problem in Peru, and present at every level. According to
Contraloria General de la Republica (Comptroller General of the Republic), the state
lost 22 billion soles to corruption in 2020. This amount was equivalent to 12% of the
general budget that year4. All 6 formers Presidents of Peru has also been accused of
corruption, and several were or are in jail.
3 See RCP Coronavirus Tracker: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0ZgG-
ghP_Xp9rXMPN07jiPIisIr_dggoLyDaUSYg1k27aqqMS3YTt8n0w
4 RPP: https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/corrupcion-genero-perdidas-de-s-22000-millones-al-estado-
en-el-2020-segun-la-contraloria-noticia-1346152
6. To calmthe markets and investors Castillo named an economist, Pedro Francke, who is
seen as center left and worked before in government. But the pressure to spend more
to implement a populist agenda is already in force. The government announced that it
will give subsides to poor families, for a total of 5.145 billion soles. This amount is
equivalent to 0.6% of Peru GDP5, and around 2.8% of the public budget of 183 billion
soles in 2021. Also, the government has announced that it will give subsidies to lower
the price of the natural gas used by families6.
Annual inflation rate in Peru has been very low in the last years, of around 2%, but has
increased in the last month, to around 4%, fueled by uncertainty in the markets for the
economic policies that will implement Castillo government. The sol has depreciated in
the last months, from a level of 3.63 soles per dollars at the beginning of this year to
4.09 soles on august 24th7. Peru is a net importer of petroleum and natural gas, and of
wheat, corn, meat, and all this is impacting in the higher cost of food and living
expenses.
But a brighter side of Peru economy is that several commodities that the country
exports are achieving high prices. Copper, which alone account for 30% of Peru exports
are in a historic high price, even higher that the level achieved during the super cycle
boom for commodities prices that began in 2003 and finished in 2011-2012. Already
taxes paid by mining companies during the first 6 months of this years are higher than
the amount they paid in the whole of 2020 or 2019. In the first 6 months of 2021 Peru
exported for a value of 24.3 billion dollars and it is estimated it will register a historic
record of 50 billion dollars for the whole year. Strong exports are the result of not only
higher prices for commodities but also of higher exports of agroindustry products, of
which Peru is becoming very competitive.
At the beginning of this year the economy was forecasted to grow around 10% in 2021,
but political uncertainty is refraining investors and the projection is for the economy to
growth 9% or less this year and less than 3% the following two years. But all this could
be more complicated and the environment for foreign companies in the mining sector
will became bleak if Castillo proposal to tax them more as he said during the election
campaign is carried on. The mining sector is the main engine for Peru exports (60% of
Peru exports are of the mining sector: copper, gold, silver, iron ore, and others) but
investment for more production is being halted in several projects because of protests
by local communities. And Castillo also promised these communities that mining
projects will not get approval if he is elected.
So far Castillo government has refrained of taking measures against mining companies
and said that mining projects will be feasible if they are “socially acceptable”. What
that does mean is still not clear.
5 Semana Económica: https://semanaeconomica.com/economia-finanzas/politica-fiscal/bono-de-s700-
empujaria-el-deficit-fiscal-al-limite-fijado-para-el-2021
6 Gestion: https://gestion.pe/economia/precio-del-balon-de-gas-bajaria-hasta-s-39-en-promedio-con-
fondo-de-estabilizacion-glp-minem-ivan-merino-mef-noticia/
7 Investing.com: https://es.investing.com/currencies/usd-pen
7. In addition to the above mentioned, if Castillo government insist on changing the
Constitution through the election of a Constituent Assembly, this will create more
uncertainty to the whole economy and the prospects for economic growth will
become more somber.
3. Foreign policy. -
Regarding the foreign policy of the new government, President Pedro Castillo did not
mention anything about it in his inaugural address in Congress on July 28th. Some
analysts estimates that a change in Peru foreign policy could happen under Castillo
regime. For example, his first Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hector Bejar, showed strong
support for the Cuba and the Venezuela regime. He met on July 30th with Venezuela
Minister of Foreign Affairs with whom he talked about “reestablishing relations to the
highest level”.
As is known, Peru was one of the creators of the “Group of Lima”, a group of Latin
American countries that opposed the present Venezuela regime. The Group was
created in 2017 by 12 countries but have not achieved tangible results. Peru, and
several of those governments, cut diplomatic relations with the Venezuela regime of
President Maduro. But as several leftist parties assumed power in Latin America, some
of the countries left the Group of Lima, like Argentina. Under Minister Bejar also that
could have happened in Peru.
Bejar had to resign his post and the new Foreign Minister is Oscar Maurtua de
Romaña, a career diplomat and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Perhaps under
Minister Maurtua de Romaña Peru foreign policy will not change, but within the Peru
Libre party there have been criticismof Maurtua de Romaña designation. Vladimir
Cerron, the leader of the party, said that Maurtua de Romaña cannot represent a party
of the left. Cerron wants a foreign policy independent of US and rejects foreign
interference on the affairs of Latin America8 .
When Castillo was campaigning for the Presidency, he and leaders of his party also
criticized the FTAs signed by Peru. They talked about achieving an integration of the
Latin American region instead of searching FTA with countries in other regions. They
even talked about the possibility of renegotiating some FTAs because they said it has
not benefited Peru.
It has been told, and when Bejar was Minister even said it, that under a Castillo
government Peru will put more emphasis in working with countries of the UNASUR, a
group of countries that in 2007 created this organization looking to achieve an
integration of the region. The Constitutive Treaty of UNASUR entered into force in
2011. Most of its members where countries that at the time had leftist governments,
but in 2018 several countries decided to suspend their membership (among them
Peru) and even some withdrew from the organization.
8 Gestion: https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/vladimir-cerron-nuevo-canciller-oscar-maurtua-no-
representa-el-sentir-de-peru-libre-nndc-noticia/
8. Also, under Castillo government Peru participation in the Alianza del Pacifico, a group
of 4 countries in the Latin America region with liberal economic policies and open to
foreign trade and investment, could change according to some analysts. Countries in
this group, Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia have the most open economies in the
region and have signed many FTAs with countries outside Latin America. But besides
Peru that have now a leftist government, it is probably that in next year elections also
Chile and Bolivia could elect leftist governments. The South America region could by
next year have more leftist governments, in addition to the ones in Peru, Venezuela,
Bolivia and Argentine. See next Map.
More leftistgovernmentsinSouth Americain 2022?
Source: Macroconsult:Alianza del Pacifico: Viraje a la izquierda
There is a possibility that regarding policies about FTAs for example, Castillo
government could adopt a pragmatic approach, as the one adopted by President Lopez
Obrador in Mexico. The Mexican President is also a person of leftist ideas but given the
fact that Mexico economy is highly integrated to the North American market, he has
kept its country economy integration under the USMCA. Peru´s economy is also
becoming more integrated in the international economy. The external trade
represents around 40% of GDP, and accumulated foreign direct investment is around
60% of GDP. So, the stakes are high. The problem with Castillo is that his party is
Marxist-Leninist, and several leaders of its organization have criticized FTAs.
It seems President Castillo is aware of the growing importance of Peru main trade and
business partners as China. He visited the Chinese Embassy on July 15th, even before
he was officially declared the winner in the election. And after the elections several
Ministries in his government have meet the Chinese Ambassador and executives of
Chinee companies, giving them assurance that Peru will continue business with them
as usual. China is not only the main trade partner of Peru but is also one of the main
9. investors in the country. Chinese investment represents around a quarter of all
accumulated foreign investment in Peru. And Chinese companies produce around 25%
of copper, 100% of iron ore, and 30% of petroleum of the country. If Castillo
government put more taxes to foreign companies in the mining sector, Chinese
companies will be among the affected.
But as it is said foreign policy reflects domestic policies, so special attention must be
given to how Castillo government implement domestic policies. In this regard, next
presentation of the Cabinet on August 26th in the National Congress has a special
meaning.
August24th
, 2021
*CarlosAquinoisDirectorof the CenterforAsianStudies,San Marcos National University