Brazil Economic Outlook (1st Quarter 2015) / Brief PresentationAlpkan Paker
Brazil Economic Outlook (1st Quarter 2015) / https://twitter.com/alpkanpaker
brazil economic outlook 1st quarter 2015 first brazil brasil brazilian economy balance of payments ease of doing business soveregin debt sovereign rating
Group work in International Trade (March 2015):
PESTLE model should help us to evaluate the country Brazil in terms of its attractiveness as a trade partner country. My part: "Future Development" of Brazil (Slide p. 35)
In course of the presentation, you get familiar with Brazil's politics, its economical situation, social environment, legal issues and shortly with its external environment. The research was conducted in March 2015.
Brazil Economic Outlook (1st Quarter 2015) / Brief PresentationAlpkan Paker
Brazil Economic Outlook (1st Quarter 2015) / https://twitter.com/alpkanpaker
brazil economic outlook 1st quarter 2015 first brazil brasil brazilian economy balance of payments ease of doing business soveregin debt sovereign rating
Group work in International Trade (March 2015):
PESTLE model should help us to evaluate the country Brazil in terms of its attractiveness as a trade partner country. My part: "Future Development" of Brazil (Slide p. 35)
In course of the presentation, you get familiar with Brazil's politics, its economical situation, social environment, legal issues and shortly with its external environment. The research was conducted in March 2015.
October 2012 - Will the public-private partnership work?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2011 – Can Brazil become a creative economy?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2012 - Will the public-private partnership work?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2011 – Can Brazil become a creative economy?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysisFGV Brazil
The main goal of this paper is to determine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil. With a sample from 1997 to 2014, we are not able to obtain the relevant impact of fiscal stimuli on output, even when altering both the methodology and the model specifications.
CSI.SP: Introduction to São Paulo by Roberto Rocco (11 Feb 2009)Jasper Moelker
The first official lecture will introduce São Paulo in a way that people who have never been there get a brief overview of the historic dynamics that help shaping the megacity of today and well acquainted participants hear a refreshing story about the ‘city of contrasts’.
July 2016 - Unemployment: How much longer?FGV Brazil
The current distressed labor market is likely to take a long time to improve.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
With Michel Temer's government conquering their first victories in congress, how will Brazil's Economy line up for the following months? This question is answered in this month's Focus Economics Report issued by the Economics Team of the UK Mission in Brazil.
December 2015 - At the peak of uncertaintyFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Just when the Government thought they could celebrate, yet another political storm took over Brazil. Following the immediate impacts of what’s now being called the JBS shock, markets cautiously await the prospect of the reform agenda – especially on social security. Reforming Brazil’s social security system is urgent and will be crucial for the return of fiscal sustainability in the long run – and there is no shortcut. Nonetheless, the reform is also vital for Government’s short term fiscal sanity. And both short and long term will play a key role in setting market expectations, despite relevant macroeconomic improvements in the past 12 months.
January 2016 - Labor market at breaking pointFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2013 - The World Cup, the Olympics—and BeyondFGV Brazil
On June 12, 2014, when brazil officially welcomes the teams competing in the World Cup, the country will be through the first half of a tough game to coordinate public and private investments to ensure the success of the mega event in all its dimensions.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
March 2011 - Electricity regulation needs to be rechargedFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2016 - Recovery still uncertainFGV Brazil
Improvement in some indicators suggests that the recession may be bottoming out, but there are still many uncertainties about the likely speed of an economic recovery.
This is the last edition of The Brazilian Economy, one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
February 2016 - States: How to get past the fiscal crisisFGV Brazil
As states are confronted with rigid spending requirements and falling tax revenues, public services are deteriorating. The federal government allowed states to borrow from BNDES because it was not making mandatory financial transfers to them, so that a number of states are now in danger of outstripping Fiscal Responsibility Law limits.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2012 - Electric energy sector needs rewiringFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2014 - Calming the financial watersFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The allocation of most of the budgetary resources of the Brazilian government (45%) for the payment of interest and amortization of public debt is unsustainable in the medium and long term because Brazil would not have public resources to invest in economic and social infrastructure and transfer resources to social security and to the states and municipalities. In addition to the domestic public debt that compromises the future of the country, the foreign debt in the amount of US$ 523.7 billion in June 2016 that exceeds US$ 379 billion of the country's reserves increases further the economic vulnerability of Brazil. Taking into account the risk that Brazil may face in the future with the "explosion" of domestic and external debt, it is urgent to carry out an audit of the debt and its renegotiation in order to stretch it in time to reduce the country's burden of payment service of these debts. Without the adoption of this policy, the Brazilian government will have to make foresight social reform to the detriment of the population and privatize public assets as is being advocated by the government Michel Temer.
The fallacy of improving the brazilian economy with michel temer governmentFernando Alcoforado
Contrary to the Michel Temer government's announcement, the Brazilian economy shows no signs of recovering from the biggest recession in Brazilian history that began in the Dilma Rousseff administration and continued with the current government. The current situation of indicators such as employment, consumption, industrial production, investment, GDP - Gross Domestic Product and public spending does not show the economic recovery announced by the government.
July 2014 - How to improve education qualityFGV Brazil
Education in Brazil has advanced in terms of school access, but its quality is still questionable. That calls not just for more and better investments in education but perhaps also for reformulation of the entire educational system.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
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[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
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1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
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4. BMJ
2015: economic background
4
.
GDP
Recession and shrinking economy: Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product contracted 3.8% in 2015.
Brazil continues to be a large economy with huge potential.
The Brazilian economy still figures among the 10 largest in the world, ranking 7 in the
International Monetary Fund’s GDP comparison list (2015).
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
As a reflex of the economic situation
the country has been facing since 2014,
recent forecasts released by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
show a shift in the ranking, with Brazil
falling one position in 2015.
GDP in USD trillion
World GDP Forecasts for the
end of 2015
5. BMJ
2015: economic background
5
.
Deficit, inflation and high interest rate
On 2015, inflation hit record level of 10.71%: the highest since 2002 (IBGE);
Central Bank’s last meeting kept annual interest rate at 14.25%.
*Data refers to the period Jan-Aug. 2015.
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; Reuters; Haver Analytics; Goldman Sachs; Central Bank of Brazil; Valor.
Budget balance as % of GDP Central Bank interest rate and inflation
6. BMJ
2015: economic background
6
.
Wages and jobs
Unemployment, which has long been falling and dipped below 5% for most of 2014, increased
to 8.9% in November 2015.
Sources: National Accounts; IBGE; Central Bank of Brazil; The Economist.
Average real wages and GDP Unemployment rate and Gov. spending
7. BMJ
2016: economic forecasts
7
GDP Forecasts 2016/2017
FOCUS BULLETIN
2016: - 3.54% (contraction)
2017: 1.00%
IMF
2016: -3.5% (contraction)
2017: 0.00%
MORGAN STANLEY
2016: - 4.3 % (contraction)
2017: + 0.6 %
9. BMJ
2016: economic forecasts
9
Fiscal performance
Fiscal constraints at the federal and state levels will continue in 2016
Budgetary gap 2015/2016 – austerity measures were not enough to balance public accounts :
government is looking for other revenue sources (high risk of tax increases)
Labor market
According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the unemployment rate will reach
7.7% in 2016 and 7.6% in 2017.
10. BMJ
2016: economic forecasts
10
Currency
2015 background
By the end of 2015, Brazilian real (BRL) figured as the most devaluated currency worldwide
when compared to the US dollar (USD);
Devaluation went up to 33.87% (Jan-Dez 2015), surpassing the Argentinian peso (-33.34%), the
Colombian peso (-28.61%), and the South African rand (-23.38%), according to Bloomberg;
International slumping commodity prices and the dependence of Brazilian economy on China
were among the chief driving forces behind Brazil’s recession;
2016 currency rally
The Brazilian real BRL has surged nearly 10 % since the beginning of March as investors see a
potential change in government as the best solution to the worst economic recession in over 30
years.
Other related factors : (i) lower interest rates by the end of 2016; (ii) exports expantion; (iv)
foreign direct investment raising; and (iv) infrastructure package.
12. BMJ
2015: political background
12
.
Getting to the roots of the crisis
Lava Jato / Petrobras corruption probe have undermined the capacity of the government to
maintain its political legitimacy.
Political deadlock: no government majority to pass economic reforms coupled with a non-
cooperative opposition;
Fractured ruling coalition: PT – PMDB unstable relations. Budgetary constrains related to the fiscal
crisis have frustrated allies in the the office: figurative power and lack of autonomy.
Finance Minister Levy’s economic plan has motivated disagreements between President Rousseff
and her political party.
13. BMJ
2015: political background
13
.
Rousseff’s top 5 five political mistakes
Rousseff was slow to recognize the severity of the Car Wash operation.
Changing the Minister of Justice weakened the government.
Rousseff distanced herself from PT.
Rousseff failed to understand PMDB
Rousseff aligned herself to Lula
14. BMJ
2016: political outlook
14
.
CURRENT SCENARIO
• About 3.6m people joined dmeonstrations against President Rousseff on March 13th, the largest
seen in Brazil.
• The protests have considerably increased the political pressure over Congress, especially on
lawmakers that were still neutral.
• Lava Jato has pulled down Rousseff’s protection wall in the Senate as investigations are now
targeting PMDB top lawmakers, who now prefer to oppose Rousseff in order to lower the political
pressure that could also target them. PMDB likely to withdraw the ruling coalition.
• The lower house speaker will restart the impeachment process this week, after the Supreme Court
publishes the final proceeding.
2. Rousseff’s resignation;
3. Electoral Court probe against Rousseff and Temer.
BASIC SCENARIO: impeachment process is likely to start
ALTERNATIVES
15. BMJ
2016: political outlook
15
.
IMPEACHMENT PROCESS
The impeachment committee will be installed this week in the lower house. Its president and
rapporteur will be elected.
The committee will have 15 congressional sessions to draft a final report on the “I” request, which
is expected to be concluded around mid-April. Next step is the vote by the floor, which will pose
great risk for Rousseff.
In order to block the process, Rousseff’s ruling coalition will need 172 votes in the floor (1/3 of the
lower house).
Abstentions might affect the final result.
If the floor of the lower house approves the impeachment request, the process goes to the Senate,
which might accept the impeachment request by a simple majority (41 out of 81 senators).
Once it is accepted, Rousseff will be judged by the Senate. 2/3 of the votes (54 ) are required to
impeach the President.
16. BMJ
2016: political outlook
16
.
POSSIBLE POST-ROUSSEFF SCENARIOS
VP Michel Temer takes office:
- PT will oppose the economic reform agenda
- Lava Jato probe might target Temer and
other PMDB lawmakers
New elections are called:
- Political party fragmentation
- Lack of new political leaders to address
population’s worries
Semi-presidential system is set
- Constitutional Reform required
- Social unrest and political instability would
increase
Risk factors to be neutralized in
Q2/2016: the political situation is
likely to improve in the second half of
the year affected by municipal
elections;
18. BMJ
Infrastructure background
Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES)
In March 2016, the government announced it
would make it easier for infrastructure projects to
secure financing.
BNDES will simplify the emission of
debentures/infrastructure bonds
Estimate: between R$ 6 billion to R$ 10 billion of
debentures will be emitted
Percentage of Investment
Financed by BNDES
Ports
70%
Airports
40%
Railways
80%
Highways
70%
19
19. BMJ
Infrastructure Investment Opportunities
The Logistics Investment Program (PIL)
One of the world’s largest infrastructure programs.
Investment opportunities for:
Airports
Highways
Ports
Railways
Upcoming auctions within PIL in 2016
Ports
Airports
Other auctions
Energy sector (April)
Thermoelectric (biomass and coal)
Thermoelectric (natural gas)
Wind
20
20. BMJ
Infrastructure Investment Opportunities
Port Auctions
Six areas in the state of Pará
Satarém (1 for grains, 1 for fertilizers)
Outeiro (3 for grains)
Vila do Conde (1 for grains)
Airport Auctions
Predicted for June 2016
Fortaleza, Salvador, Florianópolis and Porto Alegre
Previous projects by foreign firms have included:
Internacional Airpot of
Rio de Janeiro, Galeão
Antonio Carlos Jobim
•Changi Airports
International
(Singapore)
Tancredo Neves Confins
Internacional Airport
•Flughafen Zürich AG
•Munich Airport
International
Beteiligungs GMBH
(Germany)
Guarulhos International
Airport
•ACSA (South Africa)
Viracopos Airport
•Egis Group (France)
21
22. BMJ
Agenda for growth
23
ICMS reform;
PIS/COFINS unification.
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REFORMS
TAX REFORM
Pension reform
Government Spending Limit (Annual Budget Law)
23. BMJ
Agenda for growth
24
Plan for Exports to be implemented;
The government is discussing the creation of a line of credit in public banks that consists of
financing working capital of exporting companies
Portal Único/ Single Window
Authorized Economic Operator (OEA)
Working capital and rural credit - R$ 10 bi;
Length-of-Service Guarantee Fund (FGTS) and housing credit - R$ 10 bi;
Infrastructure
• Capital lines at the BNDES R$ 5 bi;
• Manage FGTS assets in order to enact funds for infrastructure - R$ 22 bi;
• Re-finance capital goods (Program on Investment Sustainability - PSI, FINAME) with
noadditional costs to the National Treasury, improving the liquidity of the companies - R$ 15
bi;
TRADE
CREDIT RELEASE
24. BMJ
Agenda for growth
25
Boosting innovation and R&D;
Signing of the legal framework of science, technology and innovation
Improving business environment in Brazil (cutting red-tape measures);
Corruption probes are improving public-private transparency and accountability;
Incentives for building and purchasing assets in Brazil;
Committee of Social and Economic Development;
Brazilian Chief of Staff Minister, Jaques Wagner, introduced to president Rousseff a list
with 92 names of business leaders that shall be part of the Committee, which is also
known as “Conselhão”.
25. BMJ
Conclusions
26
In spite of the economic downturn, Brazilian economy will recover after 2017;
A complex economy and a large domestic market will be the engine for the
economic recovery;
Industrial exports will contribute more substantially to the economy after 2017;
Political instability will delay much-needed reforms.
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