- Peru's economy has performed well over the last decade, but its political system remains dysfunctional, with individuals rather than institutions dominating politics.
- The possibility of First Lady Nadine Heredia running for president in 2016 is a major focus of media attention and controversy, with polls showing most Peruvians opposed to the idea.
- Support for President Humala has dropped partly due to perceptions that he aims to perpetuate power for himself and his wife, as well as recent economic slowing, adding to the political intrigue.
In order to hone in on a few financial factors within Paraguay’s capricious economic web, this study will focus on both public wages and the minimum wage of the private sector in relation to inflation, GDP growth and commodity prices; including, why the wages are set at the level they are and who they effect. It will also review the tumultuous foundation of the Paraguayan government to help substantiate both fiscal decisions and the social perception of wage discrepancies. Finally, fiscal measures that recently instituted both private and public wage hikes will be reviewed as to whether they were adjusted in a timely manner to accommodate the counter-cyclical goal.
Stewardship a presidential report card v4 r significant foreign influenceBrij Consulting, LLC
More than 1000 prominent Economists have asked for a referendum on the Trump Administration. We have added our Economic Report to the Subject, in V2 we show the econometric means to rebuild our country and in V3 explain the Debt Ratio and how it has been violated by the current administration, but has the means to be challenged and V4 shows the Evidence of Significant Foreign Influence on Domestic Affairs Our Revision demonstrates the need for SOCIAL JUSTICE
In order to hone in on a few financial factors within Paraguay’s capricious economic web, this study will focus on both public wages and the minimum wage of the private sector in relation to inflation, GDP growth and commodity prices; including, why the wages are set at the level they are and who they effect. It will also review the tumultuous foundation of the Paraguayan government to help substantiate both fiscal decisions and the social perception of wage discrepancies. Finally, fiscal measures that recently instituted both private and public wage hikes will be reviewed as to whether they were adjusted in a timely manner to accommodate the counter-cyclical goal.
Stewardship a presidential report card v4 r significant foreign influenceBrij Consulting, LLC
More than 1000 prominent Economists have asked for a referendum on the Trump Administration. We have added our Economic Report to the Subject, in V2 we show the econometric means to rebuild our country and in V3 explain the Debt Ratio and how it has been violated by the current administration, but has the means to be challenged and V4 shows the Evidence of Significant Foreign Influence on Domestic Affairs Our Revision demonstrates the need for SOCIAL JUSTICE
The imminent impeachment of Brazil’s President, Dilmah Rousseff and a spiraling economy are among the many challenges facing Brazil. Our experts from MSLGROUP Andreoli have co-authored a paper that looks ahead to the formation of a new Brazilian government.
U.S. Presidential election China implications Brunswick Group
The unprecedented nature of this election has communication implications for companies across the globe, and especially for China. The country is a frequent topic in presidential candidates’ speeches on the campaign trail.
Companies operating in China, and particularly those with strong ties to both China and the U.S., should consider the white-hot campaign spotlight on China during the election. Clear communication, careful planning, and deliberate timing are more essential now than ever.
For more information please contact our following offices:
Beijing: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/beijing/
Hong Kong: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/hong-kong/
Shanghai: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/shanghai/
Washington, DC: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
In this electoral round, the power of the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has been challenged by its major opponent, the Five Stars Movement, and weakened on the eve of another important political happening: the Constitutional Referendum in October 2016.
Italy appears to be on a knife edge and these elections represent only a prequel of the political struggle that will permeate the Italian debate in the months to come.
For further information please contact our offices in Italy:
Milan: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/milan/
Rome: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/rome/
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
EXPERIENCES OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST AND THE MOST SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACIES ,
“DEMOCRACY NEVER LASTS LONG. IT SOON WASTES, EXHAUSTS AND MURDERS ITSELF”
FAILED REASON: FAILED DEMOCRACY,
THE IDEA OF DEMOCRACY TOPS ALL HUMAN ACHIEVEMENTS, BUT IT AILS IF REASON FAILS .
RULE OF LAW BACKED BY COLLECTIVE REASON CAN BEST ANSWER THE DEMOCRATIC DECAY .
November 2013 - Avoiding the middle-income trapFGV Brazil
A few years ago, when China looked at Brazil with great interest, it was not only to estimate its potential as a supplier of food and basic supplies for expanding its infrastructure.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2012 - Electric energy sector needs rewiringFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
December 2015 - At the peak of uncertaintyFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Colombia | May 2013Ferhat Guven
Last week, in a visit to Bogotá, Colombia, we held a series of meetings with government officials, economists, consultants, fund managers and real estate specialists, as part of our on the ground research effort.
Jamestown Latin America Research: Over the last several years, economic growth in Peru has performed at China-type levels, and its expansion has been Latin America’s most impressive over the last decade.
The imminent impeachment of Brazil’s President, Dilmah Rousseff and a spiraling economy are among the many challenges facing Brazil. Our experts from MSLGROUP Andreoli have co-authored a paper that looks ahead to the formation of a new Brazilian government.
U.S. Presidential election China implications Brunswick Group
The unprecedented nature of this election has communication implications for companies across the globe, and especially for China. The country is a frequent topic in presidential candidates’ speeches on the campaign trail.
Companies operating in China, and particularly those with strong ties to both China and the U.S., should consider the white-hot campaign spotlight on China during the election. Clear communication, careful planning, and deliberate timing are more essential now than ever.
For more information please contact our following offices:
Beijing: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/beijing/
Hong Kong: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/hong-kong/
Shanghai: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/shanghai/
Washington, DC: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
In this electoral round, the power of the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has been challenged by its major opponent, the Five Stars Movement, and weakened on the eve of another important political happening: the Constitutional Referendum in October 2016.
Italy appears to be on a knife edge and these elections represent only a prequel of the political struggle that will permeate the Italian debate in the months to come.
For further information please contact our offices in Italy:
Milan: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/milan/
Rome: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/rome/
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
EXPERIENCES OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST AND THE MOST SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRACIES ,
“DEMOCRACY NEVER LASTS LONG. IT SOON WASTES, EXHAUSTS AND MURDERS ITSELF”
FAILED REASON: FAILED DEMOCRACY,
THE IDEA OF DEMOCRACY TOPS ALL HUMAN ACHIEVEMENTS, BUT IT AILS IF REASON FAILS .
RULE OF LAW BACKED BY COLLECTIVE REASON CAN BEST ANSWER THE DEMOCRATIC DECAY .
November 2013 - Avoiding the middle-income trapFGV Brazil
A few years ago, when China looked at Brazil with great interest, it was not only to estimate its potential as a supplier of food and basic supplies for expanding its infrastructure.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2012 - Electric energy sector needs rewiringFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
December 2015 - At the peak of uncertaintyFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Colombia | May 2013Ferhat Guven
Last week, in a visit to Bogotá, Colombia, we held a series of meetings with government officials, economists, consultants, fund managers and real estate specialists, as part of our on the ground research effort.
Jamestown Latin America Research: Over the last several years, economic growth in Peru has performed at China-type levels, and its expansion has been Latin America’s most impressive over the last decade.
Colombia Banking System Update 2014 - 3rd quarterFerhat Guven
Credit growth in Colombia continues to be impressive, while mortgages are expanding at a faster pace than the national average for total loans. Banking penetration is in the middle of the range of Latin American countries. Net interest margins remain high for the system as a whole. Mortgage rates should converge closer to developed market levels over time.
Rapid V H IC Determinarea Grupelor Sanguine la Caini si pisici baza Transfuzi...Care For Your Family SRL
Rapid V H IC, Determinarea Grupelor Sanguine la Caini si pisici, baza transfuziilor profesionale, socul transfuzional, riscurile transfuziilor la animale, achizitia de teste de determinare de grupe de sange, teste de grupe de sange la caini, donarea de sange la animale
Jamestown Latin America | Trends+Views | Brazil: Aiming for a Return to Grow...Ferhat Guven
Economic conditions in Brazil are likely to
improve this year but structural bottlenecks will
take years to resolve themselves, a testament
to the massive necessity to improve logistics,
transportation and education – all necessary to
improve Brazil’s competitiveness
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Infrastructure Challenges in Latin...Ferhat Guven
Latin American economies require substantial improvement to physical infrastructure to raise potential GDP growth.
As macroeconomic stability has been achieved in the largest economies, the public sector now aims to prioritize microeconomic issues.
The region’s major economies must address inadequacies in the years to come, focusing on the quality of roads, railroads, bridges, airports, and ports.
Governments have started to prioritize the urgency of closing the infrastructure gap, by allocating more public resources for infrastructure and pursuing public-private partnerships.
Recently, there have been important strides made, with private capital increasingly attracted to investment opportunities in infrastructure projects in the region.
Boli Infectioase ale Cainilor, Note de Curs, Parvoviroza, Hepatita Infectioasa, Distemper, Boala Carre, Diagnosticul si bazele terapiei in bolile infectioase,
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Currency AnalysisFerhat Guven
In this note, we discuss the topic of currency from the perspective of the real estate investor in the region. Currency risk is frequently cited as an important factor when considering a real estate investment in Latin America. Over the past half decade, returns for foreign investments allocated to Latin America have been enhanced by the appreciation of currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, the Chilean peso, and the Peruvian sol.
This presentation highlights the joint effort that CARE and Practical Action have undertaken in Peru to reach the extremely poor with extension services. CARE's private sector model for technical assistance provision and Practical Action's Kamayoq model have both been highly successful and offer a strategy for reaching the poorest smallholder farmers with inputs and education to better agricultural and livestock value chains.
Jamestown Latin America Trends + Views Urbanization Trends in Latin AmericaFerhat Guven
Our latest “Trends and Views” piece addresses the concept of urbanization in Latin America,
and its potential impact on the region’s real estate market.
Running head INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT .docxcowinhelen
Running head: INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT 1
INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT 8
INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT
Renzo Rey de Castro
Strayer University
Dr. Ephraim Okoro
MKT-320
February 16, 2016
Peru is a South American country found relatively to the East of Brazil. It is boarded by Ecuador and Colombia to the North West and North East respectively. To the South, it boarders Chile while the last neighbor of the country is Bolivia. Several factors make the country quite attractive for business. Both politics, economy and the History of the country reflect a country that has a great ability to respond positively to investment and one where establishment of firms can be quite rewarding. The capitalistic nature brought about by the European conquest makes the economic culture one that is similar to several other countries and thus at least manageable with regards to market penetration and the working of the market itself. These several factors intertwine to support each other in a complimentary network.
Political and Financial Background of the country
Peru is a multi-party representative democracy. It is headed by an elected president who only serves for a five year term and can’t seek immediate re-election. The president however can be re-elected later after a whole five year term elapses after his or her presidency. Bills are proposed either by the judiciary or the executive. The executive power is vested upon the government while the legislative power is exercised by both the government and the congress. The judiciary, like in many other countries, is independent of the other two arms. Besides the central government, Peru as well has regional governments which organize and manage 25 regions of the country. These governments have autonomy from the perspectives of politics, economy and administration in what pertains the subjects of their own matters.
Historically, Peru hasn’t had what can be said to be effective political stability. It has experienced wars with Spain and Chile where in the war of Pacific (1879 to 1883), Chile allegedly looted and brought the economy of the country to its knees. After this duration, Peru got into a dictatorship in mid 1920s and it was not over until 1945 with inauguration of President José Luis Bustamente y Rivero. Unfortunately, he served for only three years before being overthrown and the country got into a series of coups and counter-coups until the 1980 when the last civilian president, Belaúnde Terry, was elected again into office (Hunefeldt, 2010). Between 1980 and 2000, there were conflicts between the government troops and rebel groups with Human Rights issues increasingly becoming a matter of concern. All the way through, however, a fragile democracy still survived. The constitution was changed in 1993. Signs of political stability however have been shown with ...
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a fully revised report on Argentina, where the end of 12 years of continuous
rule by the Kirchner dynasty appears to signal a retreat from the heterodox populism that characterized the policy approach
of Nestor Kirchner and Christina Fernandez. The pro-government FPV lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, and its presidential candidate
On august 26th the first cabinet of President Pedro Castillo will present itself in Peru Congress to get an approval vote for its policies. But there are some doubts about it getting the approval from the Congress because several members of the cabinet are being questioned by the opposition parties and the public opinion. A Minister of Foreign Affairs was asked to resign from the government following criticism by several sectors of society for what was called his “apology of terrorism”. So, even if the cabinet is confirmed, it will have a low approval rate among the public, and the possibility of Ministers being censured later by the Congress is high, and this will create political instability and uncertainty in the economy.
Peru suffered a lot with the COVID-19 pandemic, having accumulated up to now more than 197 thousand deaths, in a population of 32 million people. Its economy was hard hit last year, declining at an annual rate of 11.1%. And there is a high probability that a third wave of contagion of COVID-19 will hit the country perhaps at the end of next month. Given the fact that the vaccination rate of the population is less than 25% of the total, and there are doubts about the public health system being able to cope with that, the effects in the society and the economy also could be troublesome.
An analysis of the new government of President Pedro Castillo will be provided in this article. It will focus in the economic and political aspect, and the perspectives of its economic and foreign policy.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
This month's publication addresses the military intervention in Rio de Janeiro, the creation of the Ministry of Security, the migratory crisis in Roraima, the new prospects for campaign financing (theme expensive for 2018, no pun intended), as well as a contribution on the international political scene, the South African situation.
One conclusion should strictly be derived from the results of the Tunisian presidential elections: there is nothing unpredictable about the outcomes. The excitement of bringing about political change after 2011, has
subsided due to unstable economy and confusing politics. Many factors have contributed to the buildup of this new political scene. Various elements impacted the course of the events in Tunisia, namely, social and political ones.
Running Head OPENING A NEW COMPANY1OPENING A NEW FACTORY .docxcharisellington63520
Running Head: OPENING A NEW COMPANY
1
OPENING A NEW FACTORY
3
Opening a New Factory
Name
Tutor
Institution
Course
Date
Opening a New Factory
Differences in Political Economy
The Cold War period pitted the United States against several South American nations, including Chile. The Honduran case was a bit different since the country provided bases for Nicaraguan rebels who were being funded and trained by the United States. Mexico has never been in significant contradiction with the United States, and it has also never played a key role in the America’s intervention in other Latin American nations (Kingstone, 2013).
Lately, the political environments in the three nations, i.e. Honduras, Mexico, and Chile have been favorable to the business community from the United States. Indeed, it is notable that the right-wing authorities in Chile and Mexico have sought to foster closer ties with the United States of America. Such ties have made Mexico become the third largest trading partner of the United States, and this is mainly due to the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994. Honduras and Mexico are, however, straggling with a higher rate of crime as compared to Chile, and the instances of political intimidation in the two nations are also apparent (Kingstone, 2013).
The Cultural Barriers
The most notable cultural aspect in Mexico is that individuals regard traditional and family values highly. For instance, many women consider working within their homes as being of more importance than working commercially in organizations. Children, especially those belonging in the middle and high income households, remain in their homes longer than is the case in the United States. This means that they do not have to work unlike is the case in the United States (Baer & Miles, 2013).
In Honduras, it is evident that there has been a significant integration of the Spanish and Native American cultures. The Chilean culture is mainly Spanish. Nonetheless, there are two contrasting strains: the cosmopolitan strain which belong to the urban and affluent population, and another strain which is regarded to be popular with the peasants. The urban strain is educated, and has actually adopted a Westernized lifestyle meaning that people begin working as soon as they complete college (Nicholls, 2013).
Corruptions Perceptions Index (CPI)
Chile is among the Latin American nations which have the least levels of corruption. Indeed, statistics indicate that Chile records lesser instances of corruption than Spain. According to Transparency International, corruption cases in government are isolated, and this makes service delivery more efficient than in such nations as Honduras. In Chile, the Freedom of Information Act makes it mandatory for the government of the day as well as its agencies to avail all the unclassified information to the public. In this regard, all ministries and government agencies possess web pages where information relating to oper.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
Act Local Please respond to the following in 2-3 paragraphsBased .docxbobbywlane695641
"Act Local" Please respond to the following: in 2-3 paragraphsBased on the two articles below, address the following:
What fundamental actions are at least two leaders of developing countries taking to improve the living standards of their people in terms of their economies, their political systems and their environments? Please give good response, DUE 6-11-15
· Development Shouldn’t Give Democracy the Cold Shoulder
· May 2013
· One of the strongest global trends today is the empowerment of citizens and their desire for dignity and freedom. As governments prepare for what should replace the Millennium Development Goals, they should take this into account. But don't hold your breath. Two recent surveys conducted by the United Nations to inform the discussion of the post-2015 agenda provide a striking demonstration of the widening gap between citizens and their governments.
·
· One of these is the U.N.-sponsored online survey known as My world. So far more than half a million citizens in 194 countries have voted in the survey, and the results show that "honest and responsive government" consistently ranks among the top three developmental priorities cited by respondents as desirable for their own countries. In the other survey undertaken among U.N. member state governments by the U.N. Secretary-General for the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development, "good governance" ranks bizarrely as only 25th out of 32 priorities listed. The disparity between the surveys' initial results are illustrative of a wider trend where citizens see democratic governance as a major priority, while governments don't. Keeping this in mind, there are two main reasons why the High-Level Panel report should make certain that it includes democracy in its recommendations for the new development framework.
·
· First, nothing matters more for development than national politics. As pointed out by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson in their book Failed States, anyone who doubts the importance of national institutions and national policies need only look at the history of the two Koreas, which had the same economic starting point seven decades ago. Today, South Korea has a booming economy, high levels of education, and a life expectancy of 79 years, according to the World Health Organization. In North Korea, life expectancy is 64 years and the economy has stagnated under dictatorship. Open, democratic, and competitive politics with institutions that place constraints on power are far more likely to uphold the rule of law, protect property rights, and provide an inclusive market economy that limits corruption and provides opportunity for all.
·
· Second, this critical importance of national politics is only enhanced by the fact that trade, investment, and remittances are rapidly dwarfing traditional aid as vehicles for economic development. The world is waving goodbye to the old "donor-recipient" paradigm, in which the western world provides aid to support developi.
Thanks to the political irresponsibility of the PT and its allies in defending the corrupt Lula are contributing to the ascent of the egg of the fascist serpent in Brazil. By acting in this way, the PT and its allies lack the necessary intelligence to realize that the correlation of forces is entirely unfavorable to their pretensions. Insisting on the confrontation with the great majority of Brazilian society means plunging the Country into civil war whose consequences are unpredictable. In addition to having allied themselves with right-wing parties and politicians to govern, the PT and its allies are now contributing to the rise of the extreme right to power either in the 2018 presidential election or through a coup d'état if political radicalization reaches uncontrollable levels.
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Future Of Fintech In India | Evolution Of Fintech In IndiaTheUnitedIndian
Navigating the Future of Fintech in India: Insights into how AI, blockchain, and digital payments are driving unprecedented growth in India's fintech industry, redefining financial services and accessibility.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
ys jagan mohan reddy political career, Biography.pdfVoterMood
Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy, often referred to as Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is an Indian politician who currently serves as the Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh. He was born on December 21, 1972, in Pulivendula, Andhra Pradesh, to Yeduguri Sandinti Rajasekhara Reddy (popularly known as YSR), a former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and Y.S. Vijayamma.
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
27052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Welcome to the new Mizzima Weekly !
Mizzima Media Group is pleased to announce the relaunch of Mizzima Weekly. Mizzima is dedicated to helping our readers and viewers keep up to date on the latest developments in Myanmar and related to Myanmar by offering analysis and insight into the subjects that matter. Our websites and our social media channels provide readers and viewers with up-to-the-minute and up-to-date news, which we don’t necessarily need to replicate in our Mizzima Weekly magazine. But where we see a gap is in providing more analysis, insight and in-depth coverage of Myanmar, that is of particular interest to a range of readers.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Peru’s economic performance over the last decade has been
the best in the region, yet the political backdrop continues to
provide investors with some surprises.
• Dominating local media headlines of late is the possibility
that First Lady Nadine Heredia could be a candidate for the
Presidency in 2016
• Due in part to a slowing economy, and perception that the
First Couple wishes to perpetuate itself in power, support
for President Ollanta Humala has slipped
• Meanwhile Humala announced he would not pardon
former President Alberto Fujimori, adding to the intrigue
surrounding the jailed ex-leader of Peru
• Candidates are already trying to position themselves for the
next elections, even though they are three years away
POPULATION: 29.8 million
2012TOTAL GDP:
$200 billion
(global ranking: 49)
GDP PER CAPITA:
$10,719
(based on purchasing power
parity, global ranking: 83)
2012 GDP GROWTH RATE:
6.3%
2012 UNEMPLOYMENT:
5.6%
2012 INFLATION: 2.7%
PEN / USD: 2.78
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
JAMESTOWN LATIN AMERICA
Real Estate Private Equity
www.jamestown-latam.com
Contact:
Bret Rosen – Managing Director, Research
+1 212-652-2141
brosen@jamestown-latam.com
Rio de Janeiro • Bogotá • Atlanta • New York
2. Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining but Economy Should
Stay the Course
Open up the leading newspaper on a Monday morning
in Lima, and one could mistakenly assume that Peru is
a country in the midst of a crisis.The political headlines
could indeed create cause for alarm. The two prior
Presidents are fending off corruption charges. Another
ex-President is trying to secure his release from prison,
where he has been situated for four years due to
widespread corruption in his government and grave
human rights violations. The current President is the
targetofvariouscriticismsfromthebusinesscommunity,
as he is accused of perhaps moving in the direction of
more state intervention in the economy. Meanwhile, the
First Lady is expected by many to run for President in
2016, even though currently the Constitution (according
to most observers) prevents this from occurring. Many
Peruvians are wary that the President and First Lady
may want to arrange a political dynasty in the country
not unlike the alternation of power that has occurred
with the Kirchners in Argentina. Is this the same country
that has been Latin America’s economic star over the
last decade? Is this the same Peru whose economy is
growing over 6 percent, whose poverty rate has halved
in the last decade, whose levels of investment have
reached record highs?
Indeed the political backdrop in Peru has always
been described as somewhat dysfunctional. This may
seem to be inconsistent with the excellent economic
performance over the last decade and indeed the
local economy seems to grow in spite of its political
backdrop. Unfortunately political institutions have not
matured in the same way that the economy has and
Congress is regularly criticized for its malfunctions. In
fact, a recent poll from Peruvian research firm CPI shows
that approval for Congress’ performance stands at 17
percent.1
Meanwhile, political parties are weak if not
non-existent. The major political actors are constantly
positioning themselves for the next election rather than
focusing on developing parties, political frameworks
for governing and so on. Indeed, the Peruvian political
system revolves around individuals – not institutions –
which creates an inherent weakness to the system.
Some of this dysfunction is to be expected of a
country whose history of democracy is quite short.
Civilian government was only restored in 1979, and
the government of Alberto Fujimori, from 1990-
2000, did little to
advance democratic
institutions. Indeed,
in 2000 Fujimori
resigned from office,
shortly after winning
a third term in office;
he faxed in his
resignation from his self-imposed exile in Japan, to
avoid bribery charges that surrounded his reelection.
One can thus argue that Peru has truly advanced in a
democratic fashion only since 2001, when Alejandro
Toledo was elected to the Presidency. Consequently, it
may take years for Peru’s democracy to ‘catch-up’ with
its other Latin American peers, such as Chile, in terms of
development of political parties, formation of a deeper
political class, and greater transparency in general
within the political system.
Nonetheless, the key point on which to focus is that
while politics will make headlines, real estate investors
should understand that there is little risk of a move away
from market friendly economic policies. The current
administration of President Ollanta Humala assumed
office in 2011, under much concern that he would
advance a more radical, leftist economic plan. Indeed,
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
1 CPI, “Ultima encuesta de opinion publica a nivel Peru urbano.” May 2013.
PAGE 2TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
Despite the best
growth in the region
in recent years,
political institutions
have yet to mature
3. the first day after Humala edged out Keiko Fujimori in
the second round of the 2011 elections, thus securing the
Presidency, the local stock index collapsed, falling over
12 percent as investors feared that Humala could move
forward with a heterodox agenda.2
While his campaign
advocated relatively pragmatic policies, investors
recalled his earlier pronouncements in this campaign
and in the 2006 contest, when he tended to veer toward
a more socialist-leaning speech. Yet, President Humala
has surprised many investors with an approach that
has been more orthodox than expected. He appointed
responsible technocrats to head the Ministry of
Economy and the Central Bank. Fiscal policy remains
relatively disciplined and in fact the country posted a
2 percent/GDP surplus
last year. Social
programs have been
increased but not in a
fiscally irresponsible
fashion. The Central
Bank remains
independent. State intervention in the economy is less
than in many other emerging markets. As a result, after
an initial hiccup, once Humala assumed office, business
confidence recovered, investment spending rebounded,
and the economy has continued to post the best growth
rates in the region.
In our view there is a consensus among most of the
major political actors in favor of policies that encourage
investment, economic growth, free flow of capital
and free trade. Humala realized that to successfully
govern, he could not move in the direction of the
“Gran Transformacion (the Great Transformation)” that
many had feared.3
To implement the social reforms his
administration sought requires tax revenues to increase,
which can only occur with economic growth and an
acceptable investment climate. More radical solutions
are still advocated by some, but such candidates tend
to fail to attract a national consensus and even Humala
was a viable candidate for office only when he seemed
to move more in the direction of a Lula rather than a
Hugo Chavez.
The Main Topics In Peruvian Politics: Already an Eye on
2016 Elections
Politics will indeed continue to make headlines, and
can illicit volatility in financial markets. Investor and
business confidence, in the short-term, can still be
impacted by political developments. There are several
swirling issues at the moment, which dominated our
discussions with analysts in our most recent visit to
the country.The main topic on everyone’s mind in Lima
currently is the possibility of the ‘reeleccion conyugal,’
which refers to the possibility that First Lady Nadine
Heredia may seek election for the Presidency in 2016.4
This would require a Constitutional reform (though some
dispute this notion), but with Humala’s popularity in the
40-50 percent range, considered high for a Peruvian
President, and Heredia’s even higher, many observers
believe there is a grand plan to allow the First Lady to
gain eligibility for the 2016 vote.5
For Nadine Heredia to
be eligible to run for the presidential office in 2016, most
observers suggest that some combination of Congress,
the electoral board and a Constitutional Court will have
to amend the Constitution.There is some disagreement
regarding this topic, as the head of Peru’s National
Elections Board recently stated that the Constitution
does not bar Heredia from running.6
The prohibition
PAGE 3TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
2 Bloomberg.
3 The GranTransformacion refers to Humala’s initial communications which suggested that he intended to move Peru away from a market-oriented economy and toward a more redistributive system.
4 Reuters: ”Peru’s dynamic First Lady has presidential aura,” February 20, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/us-peru-heredia-idUSBRE91J19J20130220
5 After 21 months in office, Humala’s popularity according to CPI’s nationwide survey stands at 49 percent. At similar points during their terms, prior Presidents AlejandroToledo and Alan Garcia had support levels
of 16 and 32 percent respectively. In fact at one point duringToledo’s term, Peru’s GDP growth was higher than his popularity rating. Hence, support in the 40-50 percent range for Humala is uncharacteristically
high for a Peruvian President, especially in a backdrop where the population generally has a high level of rejection for politicians.
6 http://www.peruviantimes.com/23/national-elections-board-constitution-doesnt-bar-first-lady-from-running-for-president-in-2016/17532/
President Humala’s
economy policy mix
has been generally a
responsible one
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
4. on the First Lady’s potential candidacy is based on a
law that apparently prevents a family member of the
President from succeeding him in office, but the legal
framework is confusing to some political observers.
The potential candidacy of Nadine Heredia is a very
controversial topic within the country. According to
a poll from local firm Datum, by a margin of 55-39
percent, the population is against her candidacy.7
Many believe it is distracting the administration from
focusing on the economy, reducing poverty and income
inequality, etc. Additionally, Peruvians tend to be wary
of political dynasties, especially after Alberto Fujimori
used constitutionally questionable means to perpetuate
his stay in office. According to the same Datum survey,
69 percent of respondents believe that if Nadine Heredia
is a candidate that it would represent a ‘sensation of
reelection’ for Humala. Six months prior this response
rate stood at 52 percent, which shows an elevated
concern about this topic. Furthermore, 55 percent say the
political aspirations of Nadine Heredia harm Humala’s
image. Clearly, should the Presidential couple advance
with this idea of making Nadine Heredia eligible for the
nation’s highest office, political capital will have to be
spent, and the country will be quite divided on the topic.
Regardless of whether Heredia is a candidate or not,
many political analysts suggest that her role in the
current government has been outsized relative to the
supposed responsibilities of a President’s wife. A recent
poll by Datum reveals that 40 percent of respondents
believe it is her that
‘governs the country,’
versus 32 percent
for Humala, while
24 percent said they
govern jointly. The
aforementioned CPI
survey tabbed her
support at 59 percent,
down from 68
percent in November
2012, with the
population more critical of her perceived role within the
administration. Anecdotally numerous observers refer
to her as involved in important political decisions and
appointments, even though she does not hold elected
office. There have also been accusations that public
funds have been used to further her image, and that the
unofficial campaign has already begun, as Heredia criss-
crosses the country. The same Datum polls shows that
over 2/3 of respondents believe that public resources
are being utilized to further her potential candidacy.
Meanwhile the recent declines in Humala’s popularity
are partially a function of perceptions that he is using
the Presidency to further his wife’s political aspirations.
Datum puts his approval rate at 47 percent, down from
60 percent in April. CPI put his support at 49 percent
(from 54 percent in May), while Ipsos/Apoyo divulged
on June 16 that Humala’s favorability rating is just 41
percent, down 10 percent in two months.8
Some weaker
economic activity in the early part of 2013 certainly
7 Encuesta Nacional de Datum, appears in June 6th edition of Peruvian daily, “Gestion.”
8 http://www.cronicaviva.com.pe/index.php/politica/2-politica/69905--ipsos-apoyo-aprobacion-de-humala-cae-5-puntos-en-junio
PAGE 4TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
Yes No Don’t Know
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
CHART 1: WOULD A CANDIDACY OF NADINE HEREDIA
REPRESENT A SENSE OF RE-ELECTION IN PERU? (%)
Source: Datum
December 2012
February 2013
April 2013
June 2013
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
While the next
election is three
years away, the mere
possibility that the
First Lady could
position herself to
run is a major focus
of the national
media
5. contributed to this decline. But in the eyes of many
observers, the perception that the Presidential couple
is working behind the scenes to stain potential political
opponents while also positioning Nadine for a run in
2016 also is hurting his popularity. With the vote still a
full three years away, this talk about succession serves
as fodder for local press but also represents a distraction
both for the government and local investors. Time will
tell if Nadine Heredia can run for office but we wouldn’t
expect any clarity on this issue for at least 18 months,
which will cast a further cloud on the overall backdrop.
The‘reeleccionconyugal’isnottheonlysubjectweighing
on Humala’s Presidency. There is also substantial
dissatisfaction within the private sector about the
direction of his term in office, and these feelings have
been escalating. In particular, businessmen believe that
the government has been particularly clumsy in terms of
promoting large investment and infrastructure projects,
which would theoretically increase the country’s
potential GDP. Firms that are trying to execute large
investments in the country face increased bottlenecks,
ranging from zoning approvals, environmental licenses
and overall bureaucratic inefficiencies that obstruct
projects from advancing. The government hopes to
improve accountability in these areas but time will tell if
it can deliver; this topic is especially crucial in a country
where numerous large capital-intensive investments are
facing delays, in areas such as transportation, energy
and mining.
A number of separate measures and announcements
also strained relations with the private sector, and this
trend came to a head with the government’s supposed
interest in pushing PetroPeru, the state energy company,
to purchase the Spanish energy giant Repsol’s assets
in the country.9
In late April, Humala and others in the
government expressed that the government would
evaluate this possibility, which incited a sharp reaction
from business leaders and a sell-off in the Peruvian sol.
The apparent intentions led to fears that Humala could
be returning to his more socialist roots, and might opt
to pursue a more statist agenda in terms of economic
policy. Business confidence indicators immediately took
a sharp fall but after Humala met with the Repsol CEO,
any potential plans to move forward with the acquisition
of these assets were shelved.10
From the perspective of
many observers, the damage was done: the Humala
administration had once again planted the seed that it
could veer to the left
and given the roots
of his movement,
it takes very little
from this President
to send a shiver
through the minds of
business leaders in
the country. However,
investor confidence
is gradually recovering after this episode, April GDP
was an impressive 7.7 percent year on year, and most
observers agree that the government may have realized
9 FinancialTimes, Beyond Brics. “Beefing up PetroPeru…with Repsol?” April 30, 2013. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/04/30/beefing-up-petroperu-with-repsol/#axzz2WUJLgWvh
10 Note that in 2012, the Argentine government nationalized Repsol’s assets in that country.The Humala government was not evaluating a hostile seizure of Repsol assets in Peru, in contrast to what occurred last
year in Argentina. By stepping away from a deal involving Repsol, Humala further distanced himself from the economic policies of the more left-leaning governments in the region.
PAGE 5TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
April May June
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
CHART 2: PRESIDENT HUMALA’S APPROVAL RATINGS (%)
Source: CPI, Ipsos-Apoyo, Datum. June information from CPI not yet available.
CPI
Ipsos-Apoyo
Datum
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
Business confidence
improving after
fears in April
about a move
toward greater state
involvement in
economy
6. that any signs it could be shifting the policy agenda
will be met with harsh reactions from the so-called
“Lima Consensus,” a group of business leaders, media,
economists and analysts that advocate the benefits of a
more free-market approach.11
The Fujimori Soap Opera
Another hot political topic in the country revolves
around the former President Alberto Fujimori, who
remains locked up in a Lima jail, for corruption and
human rights abuses that occurred during his time in
office. Recently, Humala denied an appeal for a pardon
for the ailing Fujimori, who suffers from mouth cancer
but the Fujimori camp, led by the runner-up in the 2011
Presidential election, and Alberto’s daughter, Keiko
Fujimori, continues to pressure the government to give
in on this subject.12
Indeed, 60 percent of the population
according to the aforementioned CPI poll is supportive
of a pardon for Fujimori and the press maintains an
obsession with this topic, perhaps a reflection of the
impact, both positive and negative that the former
President had on Peru. Fujimori was most responsible
for eradicating inflation in Peru which helped put the
country on the path to economic stability while his
hardline against the Shining Path movement was vital
to ridding the country of an ongoing terrorist campaign.
However he is a polarizing figure, due to the various
crimes that occurred during his government and his
dictatorial tendencies.
Meanwhile, Keiko Fujimori remains a leading political
figure in Peru, and is a likely candidate for the Presidential
office again in 2016. Her campaign clearly advocates
a pardon for her
father and those
that vote for her are
almost unanimously
admirers of
Alberto Fujimori’s
government. Some
observers believe that
if Humala were to eventually release Alberto Fujimori
this could clip the wings of any Keiko candidacy, as her
main reason for seeking the country’s highest office
could perhaps disappear. However other observers
believe that if Alberto Fujimori was freed, he could,
should his health recover, once again become a major
player in Peruvian politics, and hence it would not
benefit Humala to pardon him. Regardless, this topic is
bound to be one that does not disappear any time soon.
The Lineup for 2016
Perhaps Peruvians are obsessed with elections, and
polls, as we are already seeing research firms asking
the population who they would support in the 2016
Presidential campaign, even though Humala is not even
40 percent through his five year term. The other likely
main players are familiar names. Aside from Keiko
Fujimori and potentially Nadine Heredia, ex-Presidents
Alejandro Toledo and Alan Garcia are mentioned as
likely candidates. Both however have seen their images
take a beating in local press, for various corruption
11 http://www.larepublica.pe/columnistas/aproximaciones/el-consenso-de-lima-11-05-2013
12 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22823488
PAGE 6TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
The fate of former
President Alberto
Fujimori continues
to captivate the
population
ECONOMIC STABILITY 21%
SOCIAL PROGRAMS 19%
FOCUS ON SOCIAL INCLUSION 16%
DOESN’T FULFILL PROMISES 41%
SECURITY ISSUES IN PERU 21%
POOR ADMINISTRATION 14%
TABLE 1: MAIN REASONS FOR APPROVAL OFTHE HUMALA GOVERNMENT…
TABLE 2: AND FOR DISAPPROVAL…
Source: CPI
Source: CPI
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
7. allegations that have come to light. Also hurting
Garcia’s image are press reports stating that in his just
completed administration, from 2006-2011, he pardoned
over 5,000 individuals, hundreds of whom were alleged
drug traffickers. Garcia and his supporters deny the
allegations.13
Toledo’s rejection rate is even higher than
Garcia based on some real estate deals that the former
President supposedly benefited from. But in Peruvian
politics, the leading names tend to have ‘nine lives,’
and many observers believe that Garcia can be very
competitive again in 2016, as he seeks the Presidency
for the third time. Others believe that these stories have
all hit the national media as the government tries to
discredit potential rivals for Nadine Heredia.
Pedro Pablo Kucyznski (PPK) is another important
player. PPK finished third behind Humala and Keiko
Fujimori in the first round of the 2011 election, after
posting an impressive rally in voter support in the
final weeks of the campaign. He could battle it out
for support of the center-right and urban middle class
with Garcia, Toledo and others. Political analysts also
mention the threat of an anti-establishment candidate
perhaps gaining support, especially after the Humala
government has been a disappointment to many in
his political base, the impoverished class primarily in
the rural areas who expected greater benefits from his
administration. Gregorio Santos, regional president of
Cajamarca province, and an active leader of protests
against large mining projects in his area, is mentioned
as one potential candidate.14
Very preliminary polls, according to CPI, showed that
Keiko Fujimori leads in intentions to vote, with 26
percent, followed by Nadine Heredia at 21 percent and
PPK with 14 percent. If Heredia is removed from the list,
Keiko Fujimori tops the list with 32 percent. However
we would refrain from
viewingKeikoFujimori
as a front-runner
as the Fujimoristas
have a hard core
support based of
25-30 percent but a
very high rejection
rating that likely prevents her from soaring much higher
in the polls. More relevant figures are the approval
ratings of the leading names, as published by the
previously cited Datum poll, which shows that Heredia
has a higher approval rating than any major politician
in Peru. AlejandroToledo has an approval rating of just
19 percent, versus 74 percent disapproval, respectively,
with Keiko Fujimori at 38-52%, Alan Garcia 23-68% and
PPK 32-45%. In our view, if the elections were to be
held tomorrow, Heredia would have to be considered
a favorite against any of the aforementioned, especially
as she would be the sole candidate to occupy the left-
center segment of the spectrum.
Concluding thoughts
Peruvian politics never fail to entertain, but the economy
seems to advance nonetheless. Going forward the
13 http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/ex-peru-president-pardoned-400-drug-traffickers
14 Santos and his supporters were able to halt further advances at Minas Conga, the largest foreign direct investment project in the history of Peru. They focused on the environmental impact to the rural
communities in the area of where the mine is supposed to be developed.
PAGE 7TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
Nadine
Heredia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Keiko
Fujimori
Pedro Pablo
Kuczynski
Lourdes
Flores
Alejandro
Toledo
Alan
Garcia
CHART 3: INITIAL INTENTIONSTO VOTE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (%)
Source: CPI
Voting Intentions
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS
At this early stage,
Keiko Fujimori and
Nadine Heredia
lead in voting
intentions
8. Humala government faces many challenges, though
of late, it appears to be ‘saying the right things.’
Specifically, the administration must strike the proper
balance between large natural resources projects,
especially related to mining, and their impacts on
local communities. While a host of large copper and
gold mines are moving forward with their capital
expenditures, others have been halted, due to protests
from primarily indigenous communities. These groups
fear the environmental impact of these investments,
but perhaps more importantly feel they are not sharing
in the wealth generated from large-scale mines. The
government has at times treaded awkwardly on this
subject. Efficiency of public investment must improve.
Business confidence after the events of the last
couple months will hopefully rise again. Perceptions
of dysfunction within the administration should be
reversed. Many analysts expect to see Cabinet changes
in the months ahead.
The Datum poll revealed a number of interesting
statistics about public perceptions of Humala. Only 5
percent of those questioned believe that the business
community has ‘total confidence’ in the President. 58
percent of respondents do not believe the President
when he stated that he is in favor of private investment.
Clearly there remain important doubts in the eyes of
some about Humala’s stance vis-à-vis market economics,
even after two years in office, and the Repsol episode
did little to help these perceptions.Yet, when one looks
at the economic performance of Peru: growth of over 6
percent per year, inflation of 2.5 percent, a fiscal surplus,
an independent central bank and record inflows of
foreign direct investment, it is hard to argue that this
government is looking to undermine the private sector,
words that should comfort institutional real estate
investors in the country.
PAGE 8TRENDS + VIEWS JUNE 17, 2013
Peru’s Politics: Always Entertaining – June 2013
TRENDS + VIEWS