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   Online	
  News	
  

The	
  Myth	
  of	
  Influence	
                                          Blog	
  

                                                                         Twi3er	
  

                                                                         Video	
  

     @LutzFinger	
                                                       TV	
  

                                                                         Print	
  

                                                                         Images	
  

                                                                         Forum	
  


                   We	
  make	
  sense	
  out	
  of	
  media	
  
Co-­‐Founder	
  




@LutzFinger	
                Researcher	
  &	
  Speaker	
  




                   Book	
  Author	
  
Quiz
Please	
  raise	
  your	
  hand,	
  if….	
  


                                               •  Would	
  you	
  choose	
  a	
  doctor	
  because	
  friends	
  
                                                    recommended	
  it?	
  
                                               •  Would	
  you	
  choose	
  a	
  computer	
  program	
  
                                                    because	
  friends	
  recommended	
  it?	
  
                                               •  Would	
  you	
  have	
  gone	
  to	
  a	
  movie	
  because	
  your	
  
                                                    friends	
  recommended	
  the	
  movie?	
  
                                               	
  
Success	
  Stories	
  

      ●  100	
      influencers	
  in	
  social	
  media	
  
      ●  Offered	
  Test	
  Drives	
  and	
  “broadcasted”	
  their	
  comments	
  
      ●  YouTube	
  videos	
  related	
  to	
  this	
  campaign	
  generated	
  over	
  6.5	
  million	
  views	
  

      …	
  and	
  was	
  it	
  successful?	
  
      ●  Ford	
  received	
  more	
  than	
  50,000	
  requests	
  for	
  informaQon	
  
      ●  10,000	
  cars	
  were	
  sold	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  six	
  days	
  


              Awareness                                  Trigger                                  Intention



Source:	
  "Demys.fying	
  social	
  media,"	
         Influencer	
  
McKinsey	
  Quarterly,	
  April	
  2012	
  
Picture:	
  YouTube	
  channel	
  
The	
  Marketer	
  Dream	
  




Logo	
  by	
  OCAL	
  &	
  clker.com	
  	
  	
  
The	
  Marketer	
  Dream	
  




Logo	
  by	
  OCAL	
  &	
  clker.com	
  	
  	
  
The	
  Marketer	
  Dream	
  




Logo	
  by	
  OCAL	
  &	
  clker.com	
  	
  	
  
Since	
  1955	
  
●    opinion	
  leaders	
  (Katz	
  and	
  Lazarsfelt	
  1955)	
  
●    influenQals	
  (Merton	
  1968)	
  
●    Influencers	
  (Rand	
  2004)	
  
●    e-­‐fluenQals	
  (Burson-­‐Marsteller	
  2001)	
  
●    hubs	
  (Rosen	
  2000)	
  
●    Mavens	
  &	
  connectors	
  (Gladwell	
  2000)	
  




                                                                     Source:	
  Amazon.com	
  Website	
  
 Law of the Few

 Social epidemics (are)… driven by the
 efforts of a handful of exceptional
 people

 (Malcom	
  Gladwell,	
  2000,	
  The	
  Tipping	
  Point)	
  
Influence	
  can	
  be	
  local	
  

                                                                    Why?	
  
                                                                    	
  
                                                                    ●  By	
  Chance?	
  
                                                                    ●  Influence?	
  
                                                                    ●  Socio-­‐Economical?	
  




Source:	
  h3p://www.doh.wa.gov/	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
Yahoo!	
  Go	
  

        IntroducQon	
  2007	
  
        	
  
        QuesQon:	
  
        •  friends	
  influence	
  friends	
  to	
  adopt	
  
        •  friends	
  with	
  similar	
  backgrounds	
  and	
  tastes	
  adopt	
  (homophily)	
  

        	
  
        Sinan	
  Arala	
  et.al.:	
  
        •  Analyzed	
  27.4	
  million	
  users	
  
        •  89	
  million	
  disQnct	
  relaQonships	
  
        •  14	
  bn	
  page	
  views	
  
        •  3.9	
  bn	
  messages	
  
        •  Over	
  5	
  month	
  


Source:	
  Sinan	
  Arala,	
  Lev	
  Muchnik,	
  and	
  Arun	
  Sundararajan	
  (2009):	
  PNAS	
  Vol	
  106,	
  no	
  51	
  	
  
	
  
Influence	
  comes	
  from	
  many	
  
                   FracOon	
  of	
  Adopters	
  vs.	
  Non-­‐adopters	
  




                                                                                           Number	
  of	
  Adopters	
  in	
  Network	
  



                                                     •  Network	
  externality	
  are	
  the	
  main	
  driver	
  for	
  Influence	
  -­‐	
  contagious	
  
                                                     •  Homophily	
  is	
  accounQng	
  for	
  50%	
  of	
  the	
  adopQon	
  effect	
  
Source:	
  Sinan	
  Arala,	
  Lev	
  Muchnik,	
  and	
  Arun	
  Sundararajan	
  (2009):	
  PNAS	
  Vol	
  106,	
  no	
  51	
  	
  
	
  
Influence	
  depends	
  on	
  the	
  Topic	
  

                                                                                                                        Not	
  all	
  Topics	
  are:	
  	
  
                                                                                                                        	
  
                                                                                                                        •  4	
  years	
  
                                                                                                                        •  1001	
  Students	
  on	
  Facebook	
  
                                                                                                                        •  tradiQonal	
  Self-­‐reported	
  Data	
  
                                                                                                                        •  How	
  did	
  taste	
  Spread	
  




                                                                                                                                                    Source:	
  orgtheory.net	
  
Source:	
  Kevin	
  Lewisa,	
  Marco	
  Gonzaleza	
  and	
  Jason	
  Kaufman	
  (2012):	
  PNAS	
  Vol	
  109,	
  no	
  1	
  
The	
  Myth	
  of	
  Influencer	
  

                                       local
●  Influence	
  can	
  be	
  	
  	
  	
  


                                    many (like	
  peer	
  pressure)	
  
●  Influence	
  is	
  done	
  by	
  	
  

●      Influence	
  might	
  be	
  in	
  reality	
  homophily


●  Influence	
  depends	
  on	
  	
         topic   	
  


	
  




                                                                          13	
  
BUT	
  why….	
  	
  
Aja	
  Dior	
  M.	
  
omgg,	
  my	
  aunt	
  .ffany	
  who	
  work	
  for	
  whitney	
  houston	
  just	
  
found	
  whitney	
  houston	
  dead	
  in	
  the	
  tub.	
  such	
  ashamed	
  &	
  
                                                                                                                                                  45	
  min	
  
sad	
  :(	
  

                                               Or	
  why….	
  	
  




                                                                                       Source:	
  TED	
  talk	
  by	
  Kevin	
  Allocca	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                  6	
  month	
  
BroadcasQng	
  	
  	
  	
  ≠	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Influence	
  



    Awareness	
  	
  	
  	
  ≠	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  IntenQon	
  


                                                                     15	
  
How	
  to	
  MEASURE	
  broadcast	
  


●  Reach	
  
●  AcQvity	
  
●  Engagement	
  




                                          16	
  
Youth	
  Olympic	
  Games	
  
                                                                              AcOvity	
  versus	
  Response	
  
                                                6000	
  

                                                                       Response	
  
                                                5000	
  

                     ●  Reach	
                 4000	
  
                                                                       PromoQng	
  YOG	
  Social	
  
                                                                       Media	
  AcQvity	
  

                     ●  AcQvity	
               3000	
  

                     ●  Engagement	
            2000	
  


                                                1000	
  


                                                     0	
  
                                                             Athletes	
  Role	
       Young	
          Young	
          YOG	
  
                                                                Models	
            Ambassadors	
     Reporters	
     Ambassador	
  




Source:	
  Fisheye	
  Analy.cs	
  
                                                                                                                                       17	
  
CRM	
  Strategy	
  

    ●  Re-­‐Check	
  your	
          Influencer	
  Strategy:	
  
               ─  It	
  might	
  be	
  local	
                                       Intent
               ─  It	
  might	
  be	
  more	
  based	
  on	
  peer	
  pressure	
  
               ─  It	
  might	
  not	
  fit	
  all	
  of	
  your	
  products	
  


    ●  Look	
  out	
  for	
  the	
     Broadcaster	
  
               ─  Most	
  reach	
  measure	
  will	
  work	
                         Awareness
               ─  Be	
  sure	
  that	
  you	
  measure	
  engagement	
  
               ─  Stay	
  away	
  from	
  acQvity	
  




Source:	
  Fisheye	
  Analy.cs	
  
Thanks	
  
            If	
  you	
  liked	
  it.	
  Follow	
  me	
  on	
  Twi3er	
  @LutzFinger.	
  




Book	
  by	
  O’Reilly	
  Media	
  
To	
  be	
  published	
  in	
  
Spring	
  2013	
  

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the myth of influencers

  • 1. Facebook   N   Online  News   The  Myth  of  Influence   Blog   Twi3er   Video   @LutzFinger   TV   Print   Images   Forum   We  make  sense  out  of  media  
  • 2. Co-­‐Founder   @LutzFinger   Researcher  &  Speaker   Book  Author  
  • 3. Quiz Please  raise  your  hand,  if….   •  Would  you  choose  a  doctor  because  friends   recommended  it?   •  Would  you  choose  a  computer  program   because  friends  recommended  it?   •  Would  you  have  gone  to  a  movie  because  your   friends  recommended  the  movie?    
  • 4. Success  Stories   ●  100   influencers  in  social  media   ●  Offered  Test  Drives  and  “broadcasted”  their  comments   ●  YouTube  videos  related  to  this  campaign  generated  over  6.5  million  views   …  and  was  it  successful?   ●  Ford  received  more  than  50,000  requests  for  informaQon   ●  10,000  cars  were  sold  in  the  first  six  days   Awareness Trigger Intention Source:  "Demys.fying  social  media,"   Influencer   McKinsey  Quarterly,  April  2012   Picture:  YouTube  channel  
  • 5. The  Marketer  Dream   Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  • 6. The  Marketer  Dream   Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  • 7. The  Marketer  Dream   Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  • 8. Since  1955   ●  opinion  leaders  (Katz  and  Lazarsfelt  1955)   ●  influenQals  (Merton  1968)   ●  Influencers  (Rand  2004)   ●  e-­‐fluenQals  (Burson-­‐Marsteller  2001)   ●  hubs  (Rosen  2000)   ●  Mavens  &  connectors  (Gladwell  2000)   Source:  Amazon.com  Website   Law of the Few Social epidemics (are)… driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people (Malcom  Gladwell,  2000,  The  Tipping  Point)  
  • 9. Influence  can  be  local   Why?     ●  By  Chance?   ●  Influence?   ●  Socio-­‐Economical?   Source:  h3p://www.doh.wa.gov/        
  • 10. Yahoo!  Go   IntroducQon  2007     QuesQon:   •  friends  influence  friends  to  adopt   •  friends  with  similar  backgrounds  and  tastes  adopt  (homophily)     Sinan  Arala  et.al.:   •  Analyzed  27.4  million  users   •  89  million  disQnct  relaQonships   •  14  bn  page  views   •  3.9  bn  messages   •  Over  5  month   Source:  Sinan  Arala,  Lev  Muchnik,  and  Arun  Sundararajan  (2009):  PNAS  Vol  106,  no  51      
  • 11. Influence  comes  from  many   FracOon  of  Adopters  vs.  Non-­‐adopters   Number  of  Adopters  in  Network   •  Network  externality  are  the  main  driver  for  Influence  -­‐  contagious   •  Homophily  is  accounQng  for  50%  of  the  adopQon  effect   Source:  Sinan  Arala,  Lev  Muchnik,  and  Arun  Sundararajan  (2009):  PNAS  Vol  106,  no  51      
  • 12. Influence  depends  on  the  Topic   Not  all  Topics  are:       •  4  years   •  1001  Students  on  Facebook   •  tradiQonal  Self-­‐reported  Data   •  How  did  taste  Spread   Source:  orgtheory.net   Source:  Kevin  Lewisa,  Marco  Gonzaleza  and  Jason  Kaufman  (2012):  PNAS  Vol  109,  no  1  
  • 13. The  Myth  of  Influencer   local ●  Influence  can  be         many (like  peer  pressure)   ●  Influence  is  done  by     ●  Influence  might  be  in  reality  homophily ●  Influence  depends  on     topic     13  
  • 14. BUT  why….     Aja  Dior  M.   omgg,  my  aunt  .ffany  who  work  for  whitney  houston  just   found  whitney  houston  dead  in  the  tub.  such  ashamed  &   45  min   sad  :(   Or  why….     Source:  TED  talk  by  Kevin  Allocca     6  month  
  • 15. BroadcasQng        ≠            Influence   Awareness        ≠            IntenQon   15  
  • 16. How  to  MEASURE  broadcast   ●  Reach   ●  AcQvity   ●  Engagement   16  
  • 17. Youth  Olympic  Games   AcOvity  versus  Response   6000   Response   5000   ●  Reach   4000   PromoQng  YOG  Social   Media  AcQvity   ●  AcQvity   3000   ●  Engagement   2000   1000   0   Athletes  Role   Young   Young   YOG   Models   Ambassadors   Reporters   Ambassador   Source:  Fisheye  Analy.cs   17  
  • 18. CRM  Strategy   ●  Re-­‐Check  your   Influencer  Strategy:   ─  It  might  be  local   Intent ─  It  might  be  more  based  on  peer  pressure   ─  It  might  not  fit  all  of  your  products   ●  Look  out  for  the   Broadcaster   ─  Most  reach  measure  will  work   Awareness ─  Be  sure  that  you  measure  engagement   ─  Stay  away  from  acQvity   Source:  Fisheye  Analy.cs  
  • 19. Thanks   If  you  liked  it.  Follow  me  on  Twi3er  @LutzFinger.   Book  by  O’Reilly  Media   To  be  published  in   Spring  2013