The document provides an analysis of preferred shares and their strong performance in 2017 despite rising interest rates. Some key points:
- Preferred shares are up between 7.8-9.7% year-to-date, outperforming other fixed income assets. Variable-rate preferreds have led gains due to demand for their fixed coupons.
- Investors remain hungry for yield as Treasury and credit yields remain low. This has driven some to move down the capital structure into preferred shares for higher yields.
- While preferred shares have rallied, the total return outlook may now be more limited. The analysis recommends investors review preferred stock allocations and holdings to ensure diversification and manage risks.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Global Insight-Wake Me Up When September BeginsDavid Apted
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in global fixed income markets from an investment perspective. It discusses:
1) Low volatility in US Treasury markets with yields holding in a tight range, and the rise in negative-yielding global debt nearing $9 trillion, weighing on Treasuries.
2) Upcoming central bank meetings at Jackson Hole, the ECB, and Fed which may provide opportunities for investors if they cause yields to move.
3) The document recommends a focus on quality corporate bonds in the 5-7 year part of the yield curve for European investors.
This document provides an analysis and recommendation for RPM International Inc. (RPM) stock. Key points include:
- RPM is a market leader in coatings, sealants, and building materials with global operations and $4.8 billion in sales.
- Analysts issue a "hold" recommendation as RPM's stock is fairly priced given its stable cash flows and growth is already reflected in the share price.
- RPM demonstrates reliable cash flows as 70% of revenue comes from repair and maintenance spending which is less vulnerable to economic downturns.
- Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth, interest rates, currency exchange rates and oil prices were also considered in the analysis.
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letterMichael Durante
Western Reserve Hedged Equity, LP declined 1.5% in the second quarter but is up 3.6% for the first half of 2004. The fund's long positions saw strong earnings but disappointing stock performance, while short positions underperformed. The manager expects market volatility to continue but remains focused on identifying undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and high recurring revenues.
Már Wolfgang Mixa analyzes the investment opportunities between Icelandic government bonds and stocks. He finds that historically, comparing bond yields to stock price-to-earnings ratios has indicated when bonds provide higher returns than stocks. Applying this methodology to Iceland in 2001, Mixa determines that government bonds were offering returns around 4 times higher than Icelandic stocks at 2.5%, making bonds the prudent first choice for Icelandic investments given their guaranteed income. However, anticipated interest rate cuts could make stocks more attractive if profits rise accordingly, though this remains uncertain compared to the secure returns from bonds.
This document recommends buying BCOCPE 5.75% 01/18/17 bonds based on an analysis of non-US bank bonds. It conducted an initial screening of over 600 bonds from over 40 countries and 150 issuers to identify investment grade, US dollar denominated bank debt between 3-30 years maturity. It found the strongest relative value in 3-5 year BBB rated European and South American bonds offering 220-250bps spreads. Specifically, it recommends the BCOCPE bonds while noting they are slightly richer than some comparable European issuances.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Data as of Mid-Year 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Global Insight-Wake Me Up When September BeginsDavid Apted
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in global fixed income markets from an investment perspective. It discusses:
1) Low volatility in US Treasury markets with yields holding in a tight range, and the rise in negative-yielding global debt nearing $9 trillion, weighing on Treasuries.
2) Upcoming central bank meetings at Jackson Hole, the ECB, and Fed which may provide opportunities for investors if they cause yields to move.
3) The document recommends a focus on quality corporate bonds in the 5-7 year part of the yield curve for European investors.
This document provides an analysis and recommendation for RPM International Inc. (RPM) stock. Key points include:
- RPM is a market leader in coatings, sealants, and building materials with global operations and $4.8 billion in sales.
- Analysts issue a "hold" recommendation as RPM's stock is fairly priced given its stable cash flows and growth is already reflected in the share price.
- RPM demonstrates reliable cash flows as 70% of revenue comes from repair and maintenance spending which is less vulnerable to economic downturns.
- Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth, interest rates, currency exchange rates and oil prices were also considered in the analysis.
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letterMichael Durante
Western Reserve Hedged Equity, LP declined 1.5% in the second quarter but is up 3.6% for the first half of 2004. The fund's long positions saw strong earnings but disappointing stock performance, while short positions underperformed. The manager expects market volatility to continue but remains focused on identifying undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and high recurring revenues.
Már Wolfgang Mixa analyzes the investment opportunities between Icelandic government bonds and stocks. He finds that historically, comparing bond yields to stock price-to-earnings ratios has indicated when bonds provide higher returns than stocks. Applying this methodology to Iceland in 2001, Mixa determines that government bonds were offering returns around 4 times higher than Icelandic stocks at 2.5%, making bonds the prudent first choice for Icelandic investments given their guaranteed income. However, anticipated interest rate cuts could make stocks more attractive if profits rise accordingly, though this remains uncertain compared to the secure returns from bonds.
This document recommends buying BCOCPE 5.75% 01/18/17 bonds based on an analysis of non-US bank bonds. It conducted an initial screening of over 600 bonds from over 40 countries and 150 issuers to identify investment grade, US dollar denominated bank debt between 3-30 years maturity. It found the strongest relative value in 3-5 year BBB rated European and South American bonds offering 220-250bps spreads. Specifically, it recommends the BCOCPE bonds while noting they are slightly richer than some comparable European issuances.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Data as of Mid-Year 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The document discusses expectations for the US and global economy and markets in 2016. It predicts:
- US economic growth of 2.5-3% driven by increases in manufacturing, business spending, and net exports taking larger roles than in 2015.
- Returns of mid-single digits (5-6%) for the S&P 500 as stocks may offer near historical routine returns with earnings growth normalizing.
- Limited returns for bonds as interest rates rise, reducing bond prices, though bonds still provide diversification.
The year may follow an unfamiliar path but end with routine outcomes, though investors must prepare for potential unexpected turns and volatility.
Covered interest parity a law of nature in currency marketsGE 94
CIP is a cornerstone principle in international finance. First described by John Maynard Keynes in 1923, the idea that FX forward rates must reflect interest rate differentials between currencies has long been considered one of the best tested theories in financial economics. If a market participant is willing to swap a higher yielding currency for a lower yielding currency over some time horizon, he must be compensated for the difference in yield via an adjusted forward price. Otherwise an arbitrage opportunity arises until prices and interest rates align again.
The financial crisis and direct aftermath revealed cracks in the armour of CIP. In a market environment with scarce liquidity and high credit risks in forward markets, dealers were constrained in their ability to profit from what was previously regarded as an almost risk-free arbi¬trage trade. But as conditions in financial markets slowly normalised after the crisis, CIP deviations remained and cross-currency basis never returned to its pre-crisis levels. After narrowing for some time, it started to widen again across most G10 pairs since approximately 2015. Increasingly, FX forward markets seemingly do not reflect what would be expected given the observed interest rate differentials. Figure 1 illustrates these dynamics by depicting the magnitude of G10 cross-currency basis over time for an exemplary three-month tenor.
Demand for investment properties such as service stations exceeds supply, putting downward pressure on investment yields. Low interest rates and a desire to diversify portfolios is encouraging more investment. Between 2011-2015, NSW investment grew strongly, with $426 million in sales in 2015. Regional areas saw strong demand, accounting for 39.3% of 2015 sales. Yields have fallen significantly in recent years for both metropolitan and regional areas, with metropolitan yields now between 5-6.5% on average. Continued high demand and limited supply means further yield compression is expected.
The document discusses Putnam's outlook on various fixed income asset classes in light of the Federal Reserve signaling that it may begin tapering its quantitative easing program. It finds that while interest rates may remain volatile in the near future, many spread sectors now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Specifically, it believes mortgage-backed securities, high yield bonds, bank loans, and select investment grade corporate bonds in sectors like utilities and energy provide opportunities for investors. While term structure risk from rising rates remains, security selection and tactical strategies can help add value.
The document discusses recent underperformance in the US credit sector and factors driving spread widening, including fears over a Chinese economic slowdown, high corporate debt issuance, and declining oil prices. It analyzes how the metals and mining sector decline suggests China fears as the dominant factor rather than just oil prices. While the short-term market reaction has been painful, mispricings create opportunities. The document advocates a balanced approach of assessing risks and opportunities rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
On October 6, 2010, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Fifth Third Bancorp with an Outperform rating and $16 price target. The analyst believes momentum is building at Fifth Third as evidenced by improving pre-provision profitability and credit trends. Reserve and capital levels are among the highest in the industry. The $16 price target assumes an 11x multiple on 2012 EPS estimates and implies further improvement in Fifth Third's fundamentals and market share growth.
Why Consider A Real Estate Investment In The Current Market July 2009RichardZimmerman
The document discusses why real estate may present opportunities for investment during the current economic downturn. It notes that real estate prices have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further, creating a buyer's market. However, commercial real estate faces significant risks like high vacancy rates, falling rents, and difficulties refinancing loans due to tighter standards and declining property values. The document analyzes factors that led to the downturn and warns that commercial real estate troubles may exceed those of the early 1990s recession.
Fall 2015 AREIT Board Meeting Presentation FINALZi Chong
The document summarizes an investment track board meeting that included:
- Introductions of the investment team
- A review of the fund's objective to outperform the MSCI US REIT Index with a focus on value preservation given expectations for slower economic growth and continued volatility
- A domestic and global macroeconomic view noting a stable but slowing US economy alongside risks from China, commodities, and Europe
- An investment strategy of underweighting sectors most affected by global uncertainty while overweighting sectors driven by strong US fundamentals
- Analysis of property sector fundamentals and recommendations to underweight hospitality and remain neutral on other sectors
- Discussions of specific company stock recommendations like DCT Industrial, Regency Centers,
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
‘Over the Horizon’ share market commentary – September 2014David Offer
- The Australian share market declined in September due to concerns about China's economy and the possibility of rising US interest rates. The All Ordinaries Index fell 5.8%.
- The author expects the Australian market to remain in a broad trading band between 5,100 and 5,700. Key risks include weakness in the US market and global growth concerns.
- While banks have had strong performance, factors like increased regulation and a slowing housing market could limit future profit growth, potentially requiring lower share prices to maintain yields.
Prudent approach to bond investing part 2Paul Escobar
The document summarizes the risks of bond investing in the current market environment. It notes that while bonds have historically provided stable returns, bond prices can decline when interest rates rise. A 3% increase in rates could result in a 12.7% total loss for bond funds. However, bonds continue to play an important role in diversifying equity risk in balanced portfolios. Their low correlations to stocks mean they do not react similarly to events that cause stock market declines. The document advocates maintaining balanced exposure to bonds for their diversification benefits and higher long-term yields, despite short-term volatility from rising rates.
U.S. equities continued their impressive advance, with
no significant declines during the quarter. In Europe, policy changes may function as an important tailwind for growth and market performance. Globally, M&A activity has been on the rise, giving a boost to equity prices across the market-cap spectrum. The current bull market has been significant — in terms of both length and magnitude.
The Boulder Group’s Research Department has released a new research report providing comprehensive numbers and analysis of the recent activity in the National Net Lease Dollar Store Market. #CRE
As Fed tapering unfolds, we expect to see stronger growth from developed markets, while emerging markets in aggregate may experience further currency and capital market weakness. In the United States, declining labor participation continues to drive falling unemployment figures, and may harbor the beginning of a wage inflation surprise.
• We expect credit, liquidity, and prepayment risks will continue to
be rewarded by the market in the months ahead, while interestrate
risk remains unattractive due to its asymmetric risk profile.
This report details performance, investment themes, and position changes to the Seton Hall University Student Managed Investment Fund Portfolio thru May 2018.
President Trump's election victory surprised markets. Interest rates rose sharply in response as markets anticipated less regulation, lower taxes, and stronger economic growth under Trump. However, nearly all forecasts predict more modest GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 rather than the 4% growth suggested by Trump. The future remains uncertain as Trump frequently tweets and singles out companies. Interest rates may soften in the first quarter but end the year only modestly higher than the start of 2017.
The document provides an overview and analysis of capital markets activity in the summer of 2017. Some key points:
- Middle-market loan and debt issuance was robust, helped by strong M&A activity and refinancing. Leverage multiples increased.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but longer-term bond yields declined, reflecting moderating growth expectations.
- Corporate borrowing and profits remained strong despite political uncertainty. Near-term conditions remained favorable for middle-market issuers seeking financing.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
This document provides stock recommendations and analysis from an investment strategy report. It recommends 10 stocks across sectors like banking, infrastructure, and automotive that are expected to outperform the market. The stocks are categorized as high return on equity and cheap relative to benchmarks, high return on equity and cheap relative to peers, value stocks, stocks with potential for value unlocking, stocks where promoters have increased stakes, and turnaround stocks. For each recommendation, it provides details on the company, industry drivers, financial projections, and rationale for upside potential. The overall view is bullish on Indian growth and attractiveness for foreign investment.
The document discusses the need for investors to assess the quality of their portfolios as monetary policy shifts away from stimulus. Major central banks are approaching a long transition period where government bond yields will gradually rise. Portfolios that took on more risk in the search for yield may need upgrades, as credit spreads tighten and corporate debt levels increase the risk of losses. Now is a good time to lock in gains from recent strength in credit markets and improve portfolio quality and liquidity.
1) U.S. bank stocks have rallied strongly in recent weeks and months, outperforming the broader market. The document discusses factors that may continue supporting gains in bank stocks, such as higher interest rates and an improving regulatory environment.
2) While further gains are expected, the document notes that bank stock performance may see some volatility, especially after such robust recent performance. Additional gains will depend on factors like rising Treasury yields and economic growth.
3) The document analyzes bank stock valuations, which remain attractive relative to historical levels. Improving profitability is expected to push valuations higher over the long term.
Borrowing costs for middle-market debt issuers generally declined during the third quarter, despite a modest increase in leverage levels and little change in benchmark rates. The Fed, as expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, but did announce a program to gradually reduce its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing) to $3 trillion over the next three years. Thus, the prevailing combination of low borrowing costs, high leveragability and a generally benign default rate outlook, presents an attractive backdrop for issuance. This "perfect storm" of market conditions provides a compelling (albeit narrowing) window for middle-market issuers.
The document discusses expectations for the US and global economy and markets in 2016. It predicts:
- US economic growth of 2.5-3% driven by increases in manufacturing, business spending, and net exports taking larger roles than in 2015.
- Returns of mid-single digits (5-6%) for the S&P 500 as stocks may offer near historical routine returns with earnings growth normalizing.
- Limited returns for bonds as interest rates rise, reducing bond prices, though bonds still provide diversification.
The year may follow an unfamiliar path but end with routine outcomes, though investors must prepare for potential unexpected turns and volatility.
Covered interest parity a law of nature in currency marketsGE 94
CIP is a cornerstone principle in international finance. First described by John Maynard Keynes in 1923, the idea that FX forward rates must reflect interest rate differentials between currencies has long been considered one of the best tested theories in financial economics. If a market participant is willing to swap a higher yielding currency for a lower yielding currency over some time horizon, he must be compensated for the difference in yield via an adjusted forward price. Otherwise an arbitrage opportunity arises until prices and interest rates align again.
The financial crisis and direct aftermath revealed cracks in the armour of CIP. In a market environment with scarce liquidity and high credit risks in forward markets, dealers were constrained in their ability to profit from what was previously regarded as an almost risk-free arbi¬trage trade. But as conditions in financial markets slowly normalised after the crisis, CIP deviations remained and cross-currency basis never returned to its pre-crisis levels. After narrowing for some time, it started to widen again across most G10 pairs since approximately 2015. Increasingly, FX forward markets seemingly do not reflect what would be expected given the observed interest rate differentials. Figure 1 illustrates these dynamics by depicting the magnitude of G10 cross-currency basis over time for an exemplary three-month tenor.
Demand for investment properties such as service stations exceeds supply, putting downward pressure on investment yields. Low interest rates and a desire to diversify portfolios is encouraging more investment. Between 2011-2015, NSW investment grew strongly, with $426 million in sales in 2015. Regional areas saw strong demand, accounting for 39.3% of 2015 sales. Yields have fallen significantly in recent years for both metropolitan and regional areas, with metropolitan yields now between 5-6.5% on average. Continued high demand and limited supply means further yield compression is expected.
The document discusses Putnam's outlook on various fixed income asset classes in light of the Federal Reserve signaling that it may begin tapering its quantitative easing program. It finds that while interest rates may remain volatile in the near future, many spread sectors now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Specifically, it believes mortgage-backed securities, high yield bonds, bank loans, and select investment grade corporate bonds in sectors like utilities and energy provide opportunities for investors. While term structure risk from rising rates remains, security selection and tactical strategies can help add value.
The document discusses recent underperformance in the US credit sector and factors driving spread widening, including fears over a Chinese economic slowdown, high corporate debt issuance, and declining oil prices. It analyzes how the metals and mining sector decline suggests China fears as the dominant factor rather than just oil prices. While the short-term market reaction has been painful, mispricings create opportunities. The document advocates a balanced approach of assessing risks and opportunities rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
On October 6, 2010, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Fifth Third Bancorp with an Outperform rating and $16 price target. The analyst believes momentum is building at Fifth Third as evidenced by improving pre-provision profitability and credit trends. Reserve and capital levels are among the highest in the industry. The $16 price target assumes an 11x multiple on 2012 EPS estimates and implies further improvement in Fifth Third's fundamentals and market share growth.
Why Consider A Real Estate Investment In The Current Market July 2009RichardZimmerman
The document discusses why real estate may present opportunities for investment during the current economic downturn. It notes that real estate prices have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further, creating a buyer's market. However, commercial real estate faces significant risks like high vacancy rates, falling rents, and difficulties refinancing loans due to tighter standards and declining property values. The document analyzes factors that led to the downturn and warns that commercial real estate troubles may exceed those of the early 1990s recession.
Fall 2015 AREIT Board Meeting Presentation FINALZi Chong
The document summarizes an investment track board meeting that included:
- Introductions of the investment team
- A review of the fund's objective to outperform the MSCI US REIT Index with a focus on value preservation given expectations for slower economic growth and continued volatility
- A domestic and global macroeconomic view noting a stable but slowing US economy alongside risks from China, commodities, and Europe
- An investment strategy of underweighting sectors most affected by global uncertainty while overweighting sectors driven by strong US fundamentals
- Analysis of property sector fundamentals and recommendations to underweight hospitality and remain neutral on other sectors
- Discussions of specific company stock recommendations like DCT Industrial, Regency Centers,
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
‘Over the Horizon’ share market commentary – September 2014David Offer
- The Australian share market declined in September due to concerns about China's economy and the possibility of rising US interest rates. The All Ordinaries Index fell 5.8%.
- The author expects the Australian market to remain in a broad trading band between 5,100 and 5,700. Key risks include weakness in the US market and global growth concerns.
- While banks have had strong performance, factors like increased regulation and a slowing housing market could limit future profit growth, potentially requiring lower share prices to maintain yields.
Prudent approach to bond investing part 2Paul Escobar
The document summarizes the risks of bond investing in the current market environment. It notes that while bonds have historically provided stable returns, bond prices can decline when interest rates rise. A 3% increase in rates could result in a 12.7% total loss for bond funds. However, bonds continue to play an important role in diversifying equity risk in balanced portfolios. Their low correlations to stocks mean they do not react similarly to events that cause stock market declines. The document advocates maintaining balanced exposure to bonds for their diversification benefits and higher long-term yields, despite short-term volatility from rising rates.
U.S. equities continued their impressive advance, with
no significant declines during the quarter. In Europe, policy changes may function as an important tailwind for growth and market performance. Globally, M&A activity has been on the rise, giving a boost to equity prices across the market-cap spectrum. The current bull market has been significant — in terms of both length and magnitude.
The Boulder Group’s Research Department has released a new research report providing comprehensive numbers and analysis of the recent activity in the National Net Lease Dollar Store Market. #CRE
As Fed tapering unfolds, we expect to see stronger growth from developed markets, while emerging markets in aggregate may experience further currency and capital market weakness. In the United States, declining labor participation continues to drive falling unemployment figures, and may harbor the beginning of a wage inflation surprise.
• We expect credit, liquidity, and prepayment risks will continue to
be rewarded by the market in the months ahead, while interestrate
risk remains unattractive due to its asymmetric risk profile.
This report details performance, investment themes, and position changes to the Seton Hall University Student Managed Investment Fund Portfolio thru May 2018.
President Trump's election victory surprised markets. Interest rates rose sharply in response as markets anticipated less regulation, lower taxes, and stronger economic growth under Trump. However, nearly all forecasts predict more modest GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 rather than the 4% growth suggested by Trump. The future remains uncertain as Trump frequently tweets and singles out companies. Interest rates may soften in the first quarter but end the year only modestly higher than the start of 2017.
The document provides an overview and analysis of capital markets activity in the summer of 2017. Some key points:
- Middle-market loan and debt issuance was robust, helped by strong M&A activity and refinancing. Leverage multiples increased.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but longer-term bond yields declined, reflecting moderating growth expectations.
- Corporate borrowing and profits remained strong despite political uncertainty. Near-term conditions remained favorable for middle-market issuers seeking financing.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
This document provides stock recommendations and analysis from an investment strategy report. It recommends 10 stocks across sectors like banking, infrastructure, and automotive that are expected to outperform the market. The stocks are categorized as high return on equity and cheap relative to benchmarks, high return on equity and cheap relative to peers, value stocks, stocks with potential for value unlocking, stocks where promoters have increased stakes, and turnaround stocks. For each recommendation, it provides details on the company, industry drivers, financial projections, and rationale for upside potential. The overall view is bullish on Indian growth and attractiveness for foreign investment.
The document discusses the need for investors to assess the quality of their portfolios as monetary policy shifts away from stimulus. Major central banks are approaching a long transition period where government bond yields will gradually rise. Portfolios that took on more risk in the search for yield may need upgrades, as credit spreads tighten and corporate debt levels increase the risk of losses. Now is a good time to lock in gains from recent strength in credit markets and improve portfolio quality and liquidity.
1) U.S. bank stocks have rallied strongly in recent weeks and months, outperforming the broader market. The document discusses factors that may continue supporting gains in bank stocks, such as higher interest rates and an improving regulatory environment.
2) While further gains are expected, the document notes that bank stock performance may see some volatility, especially after such robust recent performance. Additional gains will depend on factors like rising Treasury yields and economic growth.
3) The document analyzes bank stock valuations, which remain attractive relative to historical levels. Improving profitability is expected to push valuations higher over the long term.
Borrowing costs for middle-market debt issuers generally declined during the third quarter, despite a modest increase in leverage levels and little change in benchmark rates. The Fed, as expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, but did announce a program to gradually reduce its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing) to $3 trillion over the next three years. Thus, the prevailing combination of low borrowing costs, high leveragability and a generally benign default rate outlook, presents an attractive backdrop for issuance. This "perfect storm" of market conditions provides a compelling (albeit narrowing) window for middle-market issuers.
The Model Wealth Program by Cornerstone Wealth Management focuses on principal-based investing rather than market predictions. It aims to identify experienced managers who can outperform peers over the long run through quantitative and qualitative due diligence. The program uses sophisticated strategies to manage risk and help investors achieve their goals.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation December Update:
Global equities made yet another high this month as global economic data remained robust and economic growth prospects kept being upgraded.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
The document provides an outlook on markets in 2016. It predicts that fixed income will experience upward pressure on short-term yields as the Fed begins tightening. High yield and bank loans are seen as attractive due to wider credit spreads. U.S. equity is viewed as still being in the mid-cycle phase with limited recession risk. International equity outlooks vary by region, with European stocks expected to benefit from earnings growth while EM faces challenges. Domestic equity is targeted for mid-single digit returns, while fixed income and international equity are targeted for higher single digit returns.
The S&P 500 finished 2018 in negative territory for the first time since 2008, down -4.6% for the year. Volatility increased significantly across global markets as economic growth moderated and trade tensions rose. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 130% in 2018 compared to 78% in 2008, indicating a more turbulent decline. Investor unease over trade and monetary policy contributed to the rise in volatility, exemplified by an 8% market fall following the Federal Reserve's signal of slightly more aggressive rate hikes than expected in 2019.
The document discusses Q3 2017 earnings results for the S&P 500 index. While overall earnings growth was 5.3% year-over-year, excluding losses from property and casualty insurers due to hurricanes, earnings growth was a stronger 8.1%. Earnings are expected to continue supporting the bull market, with growth projected in the high single digits for 2018. The market is positioned for continued earnings growth given the strong US economy and synchronized global expansions.
This document provides three potential scenarios for the performance of the U.S. stock market in 2017: an RBC forecast, a pessimistic scenario, and an optimistic scenario. The RBC forecast, with a 60% likelihood, is for low double-digit returns in 2017 and 2018 driven by improved earnings and economic growth. A pessimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, involves weaker growth and risks like trade tensions. An optimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, depends on pro-growth legislation passing in Washington.
Investment review and outlook october 2017Roger Beutler
The document provides an investment review and outlook for global markets in October 2017. It summarizes performance for various asset classes including global equities, fixed income, real estate and private equity. Overall, global markets performed well in the third quarter of 2017, though political uncertainty and valuations point to an increased risk of a correction. International markets may provide more upside potential than US markets given lower valuations and lagging expansion cycles.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
A stream of new money flowing into loan and credit funds overwhelmed new issue supply, providing issuers (and their agents) the opportunity to run robust offering processes and gamer attractive economic and structural terms. The recent tightening in monetary policy and strong macroeconomic conditions notwithstanding, all-in-cost of leverage has, thus far, remained near recent lows.
The document discusses the outlook for various asset classes including equities, fixed income, and alternatives. It provides aggregate forecasts for key metrics like earnings growth, return on equity, and dividend yields for different regions. The outlook is that the bull market in equities remains intact but late stage, and earnings growth will be an important driver of returns going forward. US equities are forecast to see double digit earnings growth in 2017, while European equities remain cheap relative to fundamentals but political uncertainty has weighed on sentiment.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation Model – September Update:
Global economic data remained robust in August and continue to point to solid, broad-based and synchronized economic expansion. Financial conditions also remain easy and still provide a supportive environment for economic growth.
This report recommends selling shares of Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) as the stock appears overvalued. The report cites Glacier's missed analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters and reliance on acquisitions to drive growth as concerns. Projections estimate Glacier will grow at a slower pace of around 4.7% annually over the next five years due to regulatory constraints and a gradually rising interest rate environment. Based on a DCF model valuing Glacier at $22.61, the current stock price of $24.36 represents an overvaluation of approximately 6.5%, leading to a recommended target price of $23 and rating of "Sell".
WINK Calgary presents "Learn to love your money - basics of investing"Patty Auger, CA, CFP
This document provides an overview of investment allocation and risk management strategies. It discusses asset allocation models for different investor lifecycles, including sample portfolios with varying risk profiles. Historical return and risk data is presented for the sample portfolios. The document also reviews relationship types with investment managers, such as advisory vs. fiduciary duty relationships. Timeless risk management strategies like sector and position limits are covered as well.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continues to show strong growth, but signs point to a peak in momentum. While US and Eurozone manufacturing surveys weakened, emerging market equities continue outperforming. Key indicators like flattening yield curves and disconnect between commodities and the US dollar suggest growth is likely decelerating. The document recommends slightly increasing exposure to emerging market equities and reducing underweight of other developed markets. It also recommends overweighting health care in the US and financials in Canada.
The document discusses the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and what it may signify. It notes that the yield curve, measured as the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has flattened to just 66 basis points, the flattest seen during an economic expansion since 2005. While a flattening curve has often preceded recessions, the economy currently shows few signs of overheating. The flattening is driven by the Federal Reserve raising short-term rates gradually through its tightening cycle, while long-term rates remain stable due to subdued inflation expectations and a negative term premium. The flat yield curve warrants monitoring but does not necessarily signal an imminent economic downturn.
What are realistic expectations for long-term capital market returns, and how are they forecast? Check out this month's Investment Insights for a historical look.
Tax Reform: Time for Rubber to meet the road!David Apted
The passage discusses the potential impacts of the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It suggests that the tax cuts could significantly boost US corporate earnings and economic growth. Specifically, it predicts earnings for the S&P 500 index may increase 13-18% in 2018 due to the lower corporate tax rate of 21%. This would push the index's price-to-earnings ratio to a more reasonable level. Industries with large domestic revenues like retail, telecom, and utilities may benefit the most. The tax cuts could also push GDP growth above 3% over the next few years and further delay recession risks.
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
- Technology is integrating global commerce and connecting people in unprecedented ways, with cross-border bandwidth increasing nearly 50-fold from 2005-2014.
- Technological innovations like e-commerce and artificial intelligence are fueling globalization and benefiting investors through higher GDP, employment, and corporate revenues/profits.
- While political tensions could challenge globalization in the near-term, technology is deeply entrenched in global business and will continue binding the global economy together long-term, acting as an "X factor" supporting the trend toward greater integration.
The document discusses the Catalan independence referendum in Spain and its implications. It makes the following key points:
1) While the referendum has increased short-term political volatility in Europe, the author maintains a bullish outlook on European equities as the situation does not pose an existential risk to the region.
2) The referendum results showed 90% support for independence but on a low 42% turnout, as those opposed largely boycotted it. However, the Spanish government deems the vote illegal.
3) The Spanish government's crackdown in response to the referendum has angered international observers and could increase momentum for the independence movement.
The summary captures the high level context around the Catalan
1) The Chinese government is accelerating reforms of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under President Xi Jinping's leadership as he enters his second term.
2) SOE reform is critical because SOEs account for a large portion of China's corporate debt and are generally less efficient than private companies.
3) Recent examples of SOE reforms include mergers to reduce excess capacity and competition, as well as introducing private capital through mixed ownership. However, fully reforming China's large SOEs will be an ongoing challenge.
The U.S. Tech sector’s new record high has brought back memories of the dot-com bubble. But unlike then,
today’s Tech sector is not propped up by fanciful talk. It’s led by companies that are truly transforming the
economy and our lives.
This document discusses whether premiums paid for long-term care insurance (LTCI) can be deducted from taxes. It states that LTCI premiums may be deductible as a medical expense if the policy is qualified, total medical expenses exceed 10% of adjusted gross income, and premiums are within limits based on the policyholder's age. It provides the age and premium limits for qualified LTCI deductions in 2017.
- The head of European equity at RBC Global Asset Management believes European stocks are appealing investments due to their long tradition of dividend payments dating back to the 1600s, high-quality businesses with centuries-old franchises, and focus on high-return characteristics.
- Many European companies have global reach and exposure to growing international markets, which is appealing given the current period of synchronized global economic growth.
- The manager looks for companies with wide moats and high returns on equity that can deliver strong long-term returns for investors, even though some still trade at a discount to U.S. peers.
1) The author upgrades European equities to Overweight due to improved political and economic conditions in Europe. Political risk has receded following centrist election victories in France and improving economic data across major European countries.
2) Earnings growth in Europe has surprised to the upside, with revenues and earnings growing around 9% and 20% respectively in the recent reporting season, well above comparable US growth. However, European stock valuations remain attractive relative to US stocks.
3) Key factors that could further improve the European investment case include ongoing economic improvements, ECB maintaining accommodative monetary policy, and stability in bond markets and inflation. Political risks remain from the Italian elections.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
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The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataChampak Jhagmag
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
Applying the Global Internal Audit Standards_AIS.pdf
The Last Yield on Earth
1. Click here for authors’ contact information.
Priced (in USD) as of 10/12/17 market close, EST (unless otherwise stated).
For important disclosures and required non-U.S. analyst disclosures, see page 6.
So much for a “rising rate environment.” Preferred shares,
often shunned by some investors for their generally higher
interest rate risk, are having one of their best years since the
financial crisis, despite a Fed that has stayed on course with
respect to its rate hike plans. Depending on structure, the
product is up between 7.8% and 9.7% so far this year in terms
of total return, as shown in the chart.
Variable-rate preferreds, also known as fixed-to-floaters or
hybrids, have set the pace on a combination of strong demand
from investors attracted to the fixed coupons that will flip to a
floating coupon over Libor at a future date if not called, and on
strong equity market performance for the Financials sector on
robust earnings expectations—given that the big U.S. banks
are the primary issuers of this product.
Fixed-rate preferreds have performed well as yield curves have
flattened, but have likely trailed given a greater diversity of
issuers—though the Financials sector is also the largest issuer
of this product as well.
And even on the back of this rally, preferreds still offer some
of the highest yields for U.S. investors. Speculative-grade
corporates have performed strongly in recent months and
credit spreads continue to tighten toward the tightest levels
we have seen since 2007, bringing the yield on the Bloomberg
Barclays Ba-rated Speculative Grade Index to just 4%,
essentially the lowest on record. Similarly rated preferred
shares currently trade to average yields slightly north of 5%.
Eye on valuations
But the theme running through all of this is that investors
remain on the hunt for yield. Treasury yield curves remain flat
The last yield on Earth
Tom Garretson – New York
October 12, 2017
A closer look
Preferred shares have been one of the top fixed income performers in 2017 for a number of fundamental
reasons, but it may also be another sign that investors continue to stretch for yield—a perfect time for
investors to take stock of their preferred stock.
R B C W E A L T H M A N A G E M E N T
Global InsightW e e k l y
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; date
range: 12/30/16 through 10/10/17
Off to the races: Year-to-date fixed income performance
9.7%
7.8%
7.2%
5.4%
2.2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17
Variable-rate preferreds
Fixed-rate preferreds
Speculative-grade corporates
Investment-grade corporates
Treasuries
3 Jump in U.S. wages should support another Fed rate hike
3 Rising rates and the cooling of Canada’s housing market
4 European earnings still shaping up to be robust
4 Stability reigns in the Chinese stock market
Market pulse
2. 2 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
so there is limited yield pickup in extending duration. Credit
curves have flattened on record high equity prices and low
market volatility, also limiting yield pickup from moving lower
in credit quality. At last, investors are now moving down capital
structures into preferred shares that lie just above common
equity in terms of claim priority on company assets for the
incremental yield.
To be sure, this is a strategy we have supported for the entirety
of 2017 in the Financials sector given the earnings outlook, but
in any environment where it looks like investors are stretching
for yield, it’s important to take a step back and assess risks and
the potential for portfolio imbalances.
Since the 2016 election and the broad-based bond selloff
as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.60% from 1.70%,
preferred prices have been on a one-way move higher, only
showing modest weakness over the past three months as the
10-year has edged back toward 2.40%.
So what to do now? We continue to like preferred shares for
their income, but acknowledge that the total-return outlook
may be more limited from here.
$1,000 par variable-rate market
There are two primary structures in this market, securities
issued with fixed coupons for five years, and those issued with
fixed coupons for 10 years. After that period they are either
called or switch to floating coupons at a predetermined spread
over 3-month Libor. The 5-year structure is sensitive to Fed
rate hike expectations and could be right for investors who
want short duration. Our preference remains for the 10 years
of call protection on our view that the 10-year Treasury will
stay range-bound, and that the Fed’s rate hike path should
maintain a glacial pace.
$25 par fixed-rate market
The retail-focused $25 par market is prone to bouts of
overvaluation, but we see opportunities in select issues that
have recently been issued that are still trading near par and at
yields between 5% and 6%, levels that look attractive relative to
parts of the $1,000 fixed-to-float market.
We would note that there are $25 par preferreds that feature
the fixed-to-float structure, but retail investors are almost
always able to find better value, and yield, in similar securities
in the $1,000 par market.
Time for a portfolio checkup
At this juncture, it probably makes sense for investors to take
stock of their preferred stock with a focus on issuer, structure,
and credit quality concentration.
In a diversified portfolio, we think investors should hold
an allocation of roughly 5%–15% of fixed income assets
depending on risk tolerance. We maintain a subdued yield
outlook and since speculative-grade corporate valuations look
exceedingly rich, we would prefer to add incremental yield
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; data
through 10/10/17
Preferred prices pull back with rise in Treasury yields
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Oct '16 Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17
Post-election fixed income selloff
Variable-rate preferreds (left axis)
Fixed-rate preferreds (left axis)
10Y U.S. Treasury (inverted, right axis)
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/11/17
Opportunities to swap out of high premium securities
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Yieldtonextcall
Discount/premium to par
$1,000 par variable-rate securities
$25 par fixed-rate securities
via preferred shares where investors are lower in the capital
structure, but typically in companies that are investment grade
at the senior unsecured level.
For investors who may have concentrated exposure to the
big banks, the lower chart shows that in select cases there are
opportunities to swap out of high premium $1,000 par issues
and into the $25 fixed-rate market for both the incremental
yield at prices near par, and for the potential to diversify issuer
exposure.
Finally, investors should review portfolios for excessive
exposure to low-rated and small issue sizes that tend to
dominate the $25 par market to ensure that credit risks have
not grown beyond original portfolio objectives.
3. 3 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
• While the 33,000 decline in the September payrolls
report was the first decline in nonfarm payrolls since
2010, Treasury yields moved higher following the release
as other metrics pointed to a material tightening in
the labor market. The labor force participation rate
increased to 63.1%, the highest level in over three years,
the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, a 16-year low,
and wages jumped 2.9% y/y to a new cycle high. Most
looked past the noisy headline number, which has always
bounced back following hurricane-distorted data in
the past, and, in our view, the Fed will look to the wage
growth number as a reason to continue tightening the
reins, which we believe will translate into a rate hike come
December 13.
Canada
Alicia Buckiewicz & Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto
• The cancellation of the Energy East and Eastern
Mainline pipeline projects was made official. The
announcement was not entirely unexpected given the
National Energy Board (NEB) had already suspended its
review of the proposal in September. The new regulatory
requirement to consider the impact of upstream and
downstream emission impacts of energy infrastructure
projects ultimately made the approval impossible. This
now forces oil shippers to support other projects and
makes existing pipelines that much more valuable. Oil
will likely have to be shipped by rail in Canada, despite
being more expensive and less efficient.
• RBC Economics believes that we are still in the early
phase of a prolonged cooling process of Canada’s
housing market, and expects that rising interest rates will
drive the next phase in 2018—and quite possibly beyond.
This factor will come to prominence after suites of policy
measures brought forward by federal authorities and
provincial governments in British Columbia and Ontario
cooled some of the country’s overheated markets this
year. RBC Economics believes that higher rates will strain
affordability—already stretched in major markets—and,
ultimately, restrain homebuyer demand. Resale activity is
projected to fall for a second consecutive year in Canada
in 2018, and prices to rise at a significantly slower pace.
• The Canadian airlines had a very strong summer travel
season and continued to report robust traffic growth
trends in September, with record load factors, while
managing capacity. As such, RBC Capital Markets has
increased its traffic assumptions and believes there is a
good chance both Canadian airlines will report another
strong earnings beat in Q3.
United States
Bill Kuehn & Sam Renikoff – Minneapolis
• The release of the minutes from the Fed’s September
meeting revealed that there was a robust, if not heated
debate surrounding the topic of inflation, which has
persistently trended below the Fed’s 2% target. There
appears to be a growing camp within the Fed that sees
low inflation as more than simply “transitory,” with
some members expressing concern that low inflation is
the result of “the influence of developments that could
prove more persistent.” We would highlight disruptive
technologies and services, such as Uber and Airbnb, as
examples of this, which have begun to have disinflationary
effects in their respective industries. But nonetheless,
inflation concerns weren’t enough to shake the Fed from
its tightening bias, and a December rate hike was left
firmly on the table.
• Despite lagging inflation, labor market strength has acted
as an anchor for the Fed to continue hiking rates. The
minutes noted that the average job additions of 172,000 in
the summer months “remained well above the pace likely
to be sustainable in the longer run,” and that alternate
measures of labor market strength like the quits rate,
household assessment of job availability, and individuals
working part-time for economic reasons have all returned
to pre-recession levels. And while the Fed noted that
wage growth has been subdued, officials pointed out
that surveys from their local districts indicated employers
were “raising wages noticeably to compete for supply
and limit turnover.” Thus, the Fed noted that “a broader
acceleration in wages may have already begun.”
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/6/17
Tight labor market draws workers off sidelines at record pace
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
3,000K
3,200K
3,400K
3,600K
3,800K
4,000K
4,200K
4,400K
4,600K
4,800K
5,000K
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Flows from outside labor force to employed
Average hourly earnings y/y
4. 4 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Europe
Frédérique Carrier & Thomas McGarrity – London
• Catalan leaders opted not to declare independence, at
least not yet, thereby defusing somewhat an acrimonious
conflict. Tempers may have been tapered as the cost of
declaring outright independence became more obvious.
Independence would mean ejection not only from the
EU, but also from the euro. It would also mean the region,
which has so far enjoyed low levels of indebtedness, would
have to take on its share of Spanish debt. RBC Capital
Markets estimates that this would bring the debt burden
from a light and enviable 35% of GDP closer to 100% of
GDP.
• The strength of the euro will likely prove to be a
headwind for Q3 earnings in Europe, with the EUR/USD
up 5% y/y during the quarter. However, European
earnings are still expected to be robust with consensus
estimates for the EURO STOXX 50 Index, the blue-chip
index for the 50 largest companies in the eurozone,
suggesting growth of 8% in Q3. Underpinned by bank
lending and less austere governments, eurozone business
confidence is at a 10-year high while German household
confidence is at a 30-year high. For full-year 2018,
consensus has pencilled in growth of 8.8%, which seems
achievable, in our view.
• In the U.K., the Office for Budget Responsibility, the
country’s fiscal watchdog, suggested it will probably cut its
forecasts for productivity gains. This will lower the outlook
for economic growth and worsen the state of public
finances, potentially leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer
Philip Hammond with a significantly smaller fiscal margin
to cushion the economy against any Brexit fallout.
• The monthly RICS house price index for September was
stable at +6. However, sentiment on the outlook for the
market slipped, which suggests prices are expected to fall
over the next three months while growth over the coming
year is predicted to be the weakest since June 2016. The
survey continues to highlight the difference between
London/the southeast of England, where prices are
expected to continue to fall, and the rest of the U.K., where
prices are rising.
A sia Paci fi c
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
• Asian equities reached a new high for the year and for
this cycle. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is up 22% in
2017 and a short distance beneath its all-time high. Asian
stocks, similar to major equities across the globe, have
been buoyed by the coordinated strength in global leading
economic indicators this year.
• Japan’s TOPIX broke through the 1,700 level for the first
time in this cycle while the Nikkei, another benchmark
index, reached its highest level since 1996. The Japanese
election will take place on October 22. It is highly likely
that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win, although it is
less certain if his Liberal Democratic Party will gain a
two-thirds majority. A win for Abe would be viewed
positively by Japanese equity investors.
• Stability continues to reign in the Chinese stock market.
Reports by Bloomberg suggest that state-backed funds
were buying stocks in order to support the market after
China’s sovereign rating was cut by S&P (although the
outlook was upgraded to stable from negative). Then it
was reported that on Monday, October 9, funds were
selling stocks in order to limit gains in the market. In
stark contrast to the high levels of equity market volatility
seen in 2015, volatility in mainland Chinese stocks has
now fallen to its lowest level in over two decades.
• These events are consistent with the government’s desire
for stability in financial markets heading into the Party
Congress in the second half of October. For more on this,
as well as our thoughts on state-owned enterprise reform
and the changing composition of China’s equity markets,
please see the article China: The long march to reform.
• China’s forex (FX) reserves rose again in September, as
has been the case throughout 2017. FX reserves have risen
by approximately $100B this year to $3.1T, although this
remains far below the peak of $4T. Data in 2017 does point
to a calmer environment in terms of capital outflows
from China.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 4:00 pm GMT
10/12/17
Second-half European equity returns are relatively more
influenced by currency fluctuations
Returns since June 30, 2017
10.5%
5.5%
6.1%
3.3%
2.9%
5.4%
10.4%
5.5%
9.1%
4.6%
6.7%
S&P 500
Hong Kong
Japan
China
U.K.
Continental
Europe
U.S. dollar returns Local currency returns
5. 5 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Data as of October 12, 2017
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX and Brazilian Ibovespa. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper
Index data and U.S. fixed income returns as of Wednesday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention
(CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 8:35 pm GMT 10/12/17.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD 7.7% return means the Canadian dollar
rose 7.7% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 112.29 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 112.29 yen. USD/JPY -4.0% return means the U.S. dollar fell 4.0% vs. the
yen year to date.
Commodities (USD) Price MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
Gold (spot $/oz) 1,293.30 1.0% 12.2% 3.0% 11.1%
Silver (spot $/oz) 17.24 3.5% 8.3% -1.4% 8.8%
Copper ($/metric ton) 6,756.00 5.0% 22.3% 41.0% 26.8%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 50.60 -2.1% -5.8% 0.8% 7.4%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 56.34 -2.1% -0.8% 8.7% 13.0%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) 2.99 -0.5% -19.7% -6.8% 18.0%
Govt bonds (bps chg) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.320% -1.4 -12.5 55.0 23.1
Canada 10-Yr 2.082% -1.7 36.1 88.6 56.3
U.K. 10-Yr 1.381% 1.6 14.2 33.8 -43.7
Germany 10-Yr 0.445% -1.9 23.7 37.8 -13.3
Fixed Income (returns) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Aggregate 2.57% 0.0% 3.2% 0.7% 5.2%
U.S. Invest Grade Corp 3.15% 0.2% 5.4% 3.0% 10.8%
U.S. High Yield Corp 5.43% 0.2% 7.3% 8.6% 20.5%
Currencies Rate MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Dollar Index 93.1010 0.0% -8.9% -5.0% -1.8%
CAD/USD 0.8015 0.0% 7.7% 6.4% 4.2%
USD/CAD 1.2476 0.0% -7.2% -6.0% -4.0%
EUR/USD 1.1831 0.1% 12.5% 7.5% 4.2%
GBP/USD 1.3268 -1.0% 7.5% 8.7% -13.6%
AUD/USD 0.7819 -0.2% 8.5% 3.4% 6.2%
USD/JPY 112.2900 -0.2% -4.0% 7.8% -6.5%
EUR/JPY 132.8500 -0.1% 8.0% 15.8% -2.6%
EUR/GBP 0.8917 1.1% 4.5% -1.1% 20.5%
EUR/CHF 1.1539 0.9% 7.6% 5.8% 5.5%
USD/SGD 1.3524 -0.4% -6.5% -2.3% -3.3%
USD/CNY 6.5875 -1.0% -5.1% -2.0% 4.2%
USD/MXN 18.8879 3.5% -8.9% -0.2% 14.8%
USD/BRL 3.1730 0.3% -2.5% -0.7% -15.7%
MARKET SCORECARD
Equities (local currency) Level MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
S&P 500 2,550.93 1.3% 13.9% 19.2% 26.4%
Dow Industrials (DJIA) 22,841.01 1.9% 15.6% 25.9% 33.3%
NASDAQ 6,591.51 1.5% 22.4% 25.8% 36.2%
Russell 2000 1,505.16 1.0% 10.9% 22.6% 29.3%
S&P/TSX Comp 15,742.20 0.7% 3.0% 7.7% 12.7%
FTSE All-Share 4,145.98 2.4% 7.0% 8.7% 18.9%
STOXX Europe 600 390.28 0.5% 8.0% 15.3% 7.9%
EURO STOXX 50 3,605.54 0.3% 9.6% 19.9% 11.0%
Hang Seng 28,459.03 3.3% 29.4% 21.6% 25.2%
Shanghai Comp 3,386.10 1.1% 9.1% 10.7% 3.0%
Nikkei 225 20,954.72 2.9% 9.6% 24.4% 13.6%
India Sensex 32,182.22 2.9% 20.9% 14.6% 19.6%
Singapore Straits Times 3,303.09 2.6% 14.7% 17.4% 8.9%
Brazil Ibovespa 76,659.80 3.2% 27.3% 25.6% 55.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC 49,962.79 -0.8% 9.5% 4.3% 12.7%
UPCOMING EVENTS
The dates reflect North American time zones. All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available.
Fri, Oct 13 Sun, Oct 15, cont. Wed, Oct 18 Wed, Oct 18, cont.
Germany CPI Yellen Speaks at G-30 Panel (DC) China GDP (6.8% y/y, 1.7% q/q) U.S. Fed Releases Beige Book
U.S. CPI (0.6% m/m, 2.3% y/y) Tue, Oct 17 China Retail Sales (10.1% y/y) NY Fed President Dudley Speaks
U.S. Real Avg. Weekly Earnings Eurozone CPI (Headline and Core) China Fixed Assets (7.7% y/y) Thu, Oct 19
U.S. Retail Sales Advance (1.7% m/m) Eurozone ZEW Surveys China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) U.K. Retail Sales
U.S. Retail Sales Control Grp. (0.4% m/m) Germany ZEW Surveys Japan Imports/Exports U.S. Leading Index (0.1% m/m)
U.S. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment U.K. CPI (Headline and Core) China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) Wed, Oct 25
Sun, Oct 15 U.S. Industrial Production (0.3% m/m) Japan Imports/Exports BoC Meeting
China CPI (1.6% y/y) U.S. Capacity Utilization (76.1%) U.K. ILO Unemployment Thu, Oct 26
Austrian Legislative Election U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (63) U.S. Housing Starts (1.18M, 0.0% m/m) ECB Meeting
6. 6 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Authors
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Tom Garretson, CFA – New York, United States
tom.garretson@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Alicia Buckiewicz, CFA – Toronto, Canada
alicia.buckiewicz@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto, Canada
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As of September 30, 2017
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] 859 52.92 294 34.23
Hold [Sector Perform] 660 40.67 154 23.33
Sell [Underperform] 104 6.41 7 6.73
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
7. 7 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
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