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Priced (in USD) as of 10/12/17 market close, EST (unless otherwise stated).
For important disclosures and required non-U.S. analyst disclosures, see page 6.
So much for a “rising rate environment.” Preferred shares,
often shunned by some investors for their generally higher
interest rate risk, are having one of their best years since the
financial crisis, despite a Fed that has stayed on course with
respect to its rate hike plans. Depending on structure, the
product is up between 7.8% and 9.7% so far this year in terms
of total return, as shown in the chart.
Variable-rate preferreds, also known as fixed-to-floaters or
hybrids, have set the pace on a combination of strong demand
from investors attracted to the fixed coupons that will flip to a
floating coupon over Libor at a future date if not called, and on
strong equity market performance for the Financials sector on
robust earnings expectations—given that the big U.S. banks
are the primary issuers of this product.
Fixed-rate preferreds have performed well as yield curves have
flattened, but have likely trailed given a greater diversity of
issuers—though the Financials sector is also the largest issuer
of this product as well.
And even on the back of this rally, preferreds still offer some
of the highest yields for U.S. investors. Speculative-grade
corporates have performed strongly in recent months and
credit spreads continue to tighten toward the tightest levels
we have seen since 2007, bringing the yield on the Bloomberg
Barclays Ba-rated Speculative Grade Index to just 4%,
essentially the lowest on record. Similarly rated preferred
shares currently trade to average yields slightly north of 5%.
Eye on valuations
But the theme running through all of this is that investors
remain on the hunt for yield. Treasury yield curves remain flat
The last yield on Earth	
Tom Garretson – New York
October 12, 2017
A closer look
Preferred shares have been one of the top fixed income performers in 2017 for a number of fundamental
reasons, but it may also be another sign that investors continue to stretch for yield—a perfect time for
investors to take stock of their preferred stock.
R B C W E A L T H M A N A G E M E N T
Global InsightW e e k l y
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; date
range: 12/30/16 through 10/10/17
Off to the races: Year-to-date fixed income performance
9.7%
7.8%
7.2%
5.4%
2.2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17
Variable-rate preferreds
Fixed-rate preferreds
Speculative-grade corporates
Investment-grade corporates
Treasuries
3 	 Jump in U.S. wages should support another Fed rate hike
3 	 Rising rates and the cooling of Canada’s housing market
4	 European earnings still shaping up to be robust
4	 Stability reigns in the Chinese stock market
Market pulse
2 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
so there is limited yield pickup in extending duration. Credit
curves have flattened on record high equity prices and low
market volatility, also limiting yield pickup from moving lower
in credit quality. At last, investors are now moving down capital
structures into preferred shares that lie just above common
equity in terms of claim priority on company assets for the
incremental yield.
To be sure, this is a strategy we have supported for the entirety
of 2017 in the Financials sector given the earnings outlook, but
in any environment where it looks like investors are stretching
for yield, it’s important to take a step back and assess risks and
the potential for portfolio imbalances.
Since the 2016 election and the broad-based bond selloff
as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.60% from 1.70%,
preferred prices have been on a one-way move higher, only
showing modest weakness over the past three months as the
10-year has edged back toward 2.40%.
So what to do now? We continue to like preferred shares for
their income, but acknowledge that the total-return outlook
may be more limited from here.
$1,000 par variable-rate market
There are two primary structures in this market, securities
issued with fixed coupons for five years, and those issued with
fixed coupons for 10 years. After that period they are either
called or switch to floating coupons at a predetermined spread
over 3-month Libor. The 5-year structure is sensitive to Fed
rate hike expectations and could be right for investors who
want short duration. Our preference remains for the 10 years
of call protection on our view that the 10-year Treasury will
stay range-bound, and that the Fed’s rate hike path should
maintain a glacial pace.
$25 par fixed-rate market
The retail-focused $25 par market is prone to bouts of
overvaluation, but we see opportunities in select issues that
have recently been issued that are still trading near par and at
yields between 5% and 6%, levels that look attractive relative to
parts of the $1,000 fixed-to-float market.
We would note that there are $25 par preferreds that feature
the fixed-to-float structure, but retail investors are almost
always able to find better value, and yield, in similar securities
in the $1,000 par market.
Time for a portfolio checkup
At this juncture, it probably makes sense for investors to take
stock of their preferred stock with a focus on issuer, structure,
and credit quality concentration.
In a diversified portfolio, we think investors should hold
an allocation of roughly 5%–15% of fixed income assets
depending on risk tolerance. We maintain a subdued yield
outlook and since speculative-grade corporate valuations look
exceedingly rich, we would prefer to add incremental yield
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; data
through 10/10/17
Preferred prices pull back with rise in Treasury yields
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Oct '16 Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17
Post-election fixed income selloff
Variable-rate preferreds (left axis)
Fixed-rate preferreds (left axis)
10Y U.S. Treasury (inverted, right axis)
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/11/17
Opportunities to swap out of high premium securities
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Yieldtonextcall
Discount/premium to par
$1,000 par variable-rate securities
$25 par fixed-rate securities
via preferred shares where investors are lower in the capital
structure, but typically in companies that are investment grade
at the senior unsecured level.
For investors who may have concentrated exposure to the
big banks, the lower chart shows that in select cases there are
opportunities to swap out of high premium $1,000 par issues
and into the $25 fixed-rate market for both the incremental
yield at prices near par, and for the potential to diversify issuer
exposure.
Finally, investors should review portfolios for excessive
exposure to low-rated and small issue sizes that tend to
dominate the $25 par market to ensure that credit risks have
not grown beyond original portfolio objectives.
3 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
•	 While the 33,000 decline in the September payrolls
report was the first decline in nonfarm payrolls since
2010, Treasury yields moved higher following the release
as other metrics pointed to a material tightening in
the labor market. The labor force participation rate
increased to 63.1%, the highest level in over three years,
the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, a 16-year low,
and wages jumped 2.9% y/y to a new cycle high. Most
looked past the noisy headline number, which has always
bounced back following hurricane-distorted data in
the past, and, in our view, the Fed will look to the wage
growth number as a reason to continue tightening the
reins, which we believe will translate into a rate hike come
December 13.
Canada
Alicia Buckiewicz & Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto
•	 The cancellation of the Energy East and Eastern
Mainline pipeline projects was made official. The
announcement was not entirely unexpected given the
National Energy Board (NEB) had already suspended its
review of the proposal in September. The new regulatory
requirement to consider the impact of upstream and
downstream emission impacts of energy infrastructure
projects ultimately made the approval impossible. This
now forces oil shippers to support other projects and
makes existing pipelines that much more valuable. Oil
will likely have to be shipped by rail in Canada, despite
being more expensive and less efficient.
•	 RBC Economics believes that we are still in the early
phase of a prolonged cooling process of Canada’s
housing market, and expects that rising interest rates will
drive the next phase in 2018—and quite possibly beyond.
This factor will come to prominence after suites of policy
measures brought forward by federal authorities and
provincial governments in British Columbia and Ontario
cooled some of the country’s overheated markets this
year. RBC Economics believes that higher rates will strain
affordability—already stretched in major markets—and,
ultimately, restrain homebuyer demand. Resale activity is
projected to fall for a second consecutive year in Canada
in 2018, and prices to rise at a significantly slower pace.
•	 The Canadian airlines had a very strong summer travel
season and continued to report robust traffic growth
trends in September, with record load factors, while
managing capacity. As such, RBC Capital Markets has
increased its traffic assumptions and believes there is a
good chance both Canadian airlines will report another
strong earnings beat in Q3.
United States
Bill Kuehn & Sam Renikoff – Minneapolis
•	 The release of the minutes from the Fed’s September
meeting revealed that there was a robust, if not heated
debate surrounding the topic of inflation, which has
persistently trended below the Fed’s 2% target. There
appears to be a growing camp within the Fed that sees
low inflation as more than simply “transitory,” with
some members expressing concern that low inflation is
the result of “the influence of developments that could
prove more persistent.” We would highlight disruptive
technologies and services, such as Uber and Airbnb, as
examples of this, which have begun to have disinflationary
effects in their respective industries. But nonetheless,
inflation concerns weren’t enough to shake the Fed from
its tightening bias, and a December rate hike was left
firmly on the table.
•	 Despite lagging inflation, labor market strength has acted
as an anchor for the Fed to continue hiking rates. The
minutes noted that the average job additions of 172,000 in
the summer months “remained well above the pace likely
to be sustainable in the longer run,” and that alternate
measures of labor market strength like the quits rate,
household assessment of job availability, and individuals
working part-time for economic reasons have all returned
to pre-recession levels. And while the Fed noted that
wage growth has been subdued, officials pointed out
that surveys from their local districts indicated employers
were “raising wages noticeably to compete for supply
and limit turnover.” Thus, the Fed noted that “a broader
acceleration in wages may have already begun.”
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/6/17
Tight labor market draws workers off sidelines at record pace
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
3,000K
3,200K
3,400K
3,600K
3,800K
4,000K
4,200K
4,400K
4,600K
4,800K
5,000K
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Flows from outside labor force to employed
Average hourly earnings y/y
4 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Europe
Frédérique Carrier & Thomas McGarrity – London
•	 Catalan leaders opted not to declare independence, at
least not yet, thereby defusing somewhat an acrimonious
conflict. Tempers may have been tapered as the cost of
declaring outright independence became more obvious.
Independence would mean ejection not only from the
EU, but also from the euro. It would also mean the region,
which has so far enjoyed low levels of indebtedness, would
have to take on its share of Spanish debt. RBC Capital
Markets estimates that this would bring the debt burden
from a light and enviable 35% of GDP closer to 100% of
GDP.
•	 The strength of the euro will likely prove to be a
headwind for Q3 earnings in Europe, with the EUR/USD
up 5% y/y during the quarter. However, European
earnings are still expected to be robust with consensus
estimates for the EURO STOXX 50 Index, the blue-chip
index for the 50 largest companies in the eurozone,
suggesting growth of 8% in Q3. Underpinned by bank
lending and less austere governments, eurozone business
confidence is at a 10-year high while German household
confidence is at a 30-year high. For full-year 2018,
consensus has pencilled in growth of 8.8%, which seems
achievable, in our view.
•	 In the U.K., the Office for Budget Responsibility, the
country’s fiscal watchdog, suggested it will probably cut its
forecasts for productivity gains. This will lower the outlook
for economic growth and worsen the state of public
finances, potentially leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer
Philip Hammond with a significantly smaller fiscal margin
to cushion the economy against any Brexit fallout.
•	 The monthly RICS house price index for September was
stable at +6. However, sentiment on the outlook for the
market slipped, which suggests prices are expected to fall
over the next three months while growth over the coming
year is predicted to be the weakest since June 2016. The
survey continues to highlight the difference between
London/the southeast of England, where prices are
expected to continue to fall, and the rest of the U.K., where
prices are rising.
A sia Paci fi c
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
•	 Asian equities reached a new high for the year and for
this cycle. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is up 22% in
2017 and a short distance beneath its all-time high. Asian
stocks, similar to major equities across the globe, have
been buoyed by the coordinated strength in global leading
economic indicators this year.
•	 Japan’s TOPIX broke through the 1,700 level for the first
time in this cycle while the Nikkei, another benchmark
index, reached its highest level since 1996. The Japanese
election will take place on October 22. It is highly likely
that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win, although it is
less certain if his Liberal Democratic Party will gain a
two-thirds majority. A win for Abe would be viewed
positively by Japanese equity investors.
•	 Stability continues to reign in the Chinese stock market.
Reports by Bloomberg suggest that state-backed funds
were buying stocks in order to support the market after
China’s sovereign rating was cut by S&P (although the
outlook was upgraded to stable from negative). Then it
was reported that on Monday, October 9, funds were
selling stocks in order to limit gains in the market. In
stark contrast to the high levels of equity market volatility
seen in 2015, volatility in mainland Chinese stocks has
now fallen to its lowest level in over two decades.
•	 These events are consistent with the government’s desire
for stability in financial markets heading into the Party
Congress in the second half of October. For more on this,
as well as our thoughts on state-owned enterprise reform
and the changing composition of China’s equity markets,
please see the article China: The long march to reform.
•	 China’s forex (FX) reserves rose again in September, as
has been the case throughout 2017. FX reserves have risen
by approximately $100B this year to $3.1T, although this
remains far below the peak of $4T. Data in 2017 does point
to a calmer environment in terms of capital outflows
from China.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 4:00 pm GMT
10/12/17
Second-half European equity returns are relatively more
influenced by currency fluctuations
Returns since June 30, 2017
10.5%
5.5%
6.1%
3.3%
2.9%
5.4%
10.4%
5.5%
9.1%
4.6%
6.7%
S&P 500
Hong Kong
Japan
China
U.K.
Continental
Europe
U.S. dollar returns Local currency returns
5 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Data as of October 12, 2017
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX and Brazilian Ibovespa. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper
Index data and U.S. fixed income returns as of Wednesday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention
(CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 8:35 pm GMT 10/12/17.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD 7.7% return means the Canadian dollar
rose 7.7% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 112.29 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 112.29 yen. USD/JPY -4.0% return means the U.S. dollar fell 4.0% vs. the
yen year to date.
Commodities (USD) Price MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
Gold (spot $/oz) 1,293.30 1.0% 12.2% 3.0% 11.1%
Silver (spot $/oz) 17.24 3.5% 8.3% -1.4% 8.8%
Copper ($/metric ton) 6,756.00 5.0% 22.3% 41.0% 26.8%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 50.60 -2.1% -5.8% 0.8% 7.4%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 56.34 -2.1% -0.8% 8.7% 13.0%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) 2.99 -0.5% -19.7% -6.8% 18.0%
Govt bonds (bps chg) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.320% -1.4 -12.5 55.0 23.1
Canada 10-Yr 2.082% -1.7 36.1 88.6 56.3
U.K. 10-Yr 1.381% 1.6 14.2 33.8 -43.7
Germany 10-Yr 0.445% -1.9 23.7 37.8 -13.3
Fixed Income (returns) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Aggregate 2.57% 0.0% 3.2% 0.7% 5.2%
U.S. Invest Grade Corp 3.15% 0.2% 5.4% 3.0% 10.8%
U.S. High Yield Corp 5.43% 0.2% 7.3% 8.6% 20.5%
Currencies Rate MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Dollar Index 93.1010 0.0% -8.9% -5.0% -1.8%
CAD/USD 0.8015 0.0% 7.7% 6.4% 4.2%
USD/CAD 1.2476 0.0% -7.2% -6.0% -4.0%
EUR/USD 1.1831 0.1% 12.5% 7.5% 4.2%
GBP/USD 1.3268 -1.0% 7.5% 8.7% -13.6%
AUD/USD 0.7819 -0.2% 8.5% 3.4% 6.2%
USD/JPY 112.2900 -0.2% -4.0% 7.8% -6.5%
EUR/JPY 132.8500 -0.1% 8.0% 15.8% -2.6%
EUR/GBP 0.8917 1.1% 4.5% -1.1% 20.5%
EUR/CHF 1.1539 0.9% 7.6% 5.8% 5.5%
USD/SGD 1.3524 -0.4% -6.5% -2.3% -3.3%
USD/CNY 6.5875 -1.0% -5.1% -2.0% 4.2%
USD/MXN 18.8879 3.5% -8.9% -0.2% 14.8%
USD/BRL 3.1730 0.3% -2.5% -0.7% -15.7%
MARKET SCORECARD
Equities (local currency) Level MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
S&P 500 2,550.93 1.3% 13.9% 19.2% 26.4%
Dow Industrials (DJIA) 22,841.01 1.9% 15.6% 25.9% 33.3%
NASDAQ 6,591.51 1.5% 22.4% 25.8% 36.2%
Russell 2000 1,505.16 1.0% 10.9% 22.6% 29.3%
S&P/TSX Comp 15,742.20 0.7% 3.0% 7.7% 12.7%
FTSE All-Share 4,145.98 2.4% 7.0% 8.7% 18.9%
STOXX Europe 600 390.28 0.5% 8.0% 15.3% 7.9%
EURO STOXX 50 3,605.54 0.3% 9.6% 19.9% 11.0%
Hang Seng 28,459.03 3.3% 29.4% 21.6% 25.2%
Shanghai Comp 3,386.10 1.1% 9.1% 10.7% 3.0%
Nikkei 225 20,954.72 2.9% 9.6% 24.4% 13.6%
India Sensex 32,182.22 2.9% 20.9% 14.6% 19.6%
Singapore Straits Times 3,303.09 2.6% 14.7% 17.4% 8.9%
Brazil Ibovespa 76,659.80 3.2% 27.3% 25.6% 55.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC 49,962.79 -0.8% 9.5% 4.3% 12.7%
UPCOMING EVENTS
The dates reflect North American time zones. All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available.
Fri, Oct 13 Sun, Oct 15, cont. Wed, Oct 18 Wed, Oct 18, cont.
Germany CPI Yellen Speaks at G-30 Panel (DC) China GDP (6.8% y/y, 1.7% q/q) U.S. Fed Releases Beige Book
U.S. CPI (0.6% m/m, 2.3% y/y) Tue, Oct 17 China Retail Sales (10.1% y/y) NY Fed President Dudley Speaks
U.S. Real Avg. Weekly Earnings Eurozone CPI (Headline and Core) China Fixed Assets (7.7% y/y) Thu, Oct 19
U.S. Retail Sales Advance (1.7% m/m) Eurozone ZEW Surveys China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) U.K. Retail Sales
U.S. Retail Sales Control Grp. (0.4% m/m) Germany ZEW Surveys Japan Imports/Exports U.S. Leading Index (0.1% m/m)
U.S. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment U.K. CPI (Headline and Core) China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) Wed, Oct 25
Sun, Oct 15 U.S. Industrial Production (0.3% m/m) Japan Imports/Exports BoC Meeting
China CPI (1.6% y/y) U.S. Capacity Utilization (76.1%) U.K. ILO Unemployment Thu, Oct 26
Austrian Legislative Election U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (63) U.S. Housing Starts (1.18M, 0.0% m/m) ECB Meeting
6 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Authors
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the
personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all
of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation
of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly
or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC
Capital Markets, LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes,
without limitation, RBC Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign
affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report has been prepared
by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect wholly-owned
subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related
issuer of Royal Bank of Canada.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Alicia Buckiewicz, Farazeh Mahboob, and
Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign
affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Frédérique Carrier and
Thomas McGarrity, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s
foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management
(U.K.) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research
analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
(“FINRA”) and, since they are not associated persons of RBC Wealth
Management, they may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing
communications with subject companies, the making of public
appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by
research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more
companies), RBC Wealth Management may choose to provide
important disclosure information by reference. To access current
Tom Garretson, CFA – New York, United States
tom.garretson@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Alicia Buckiewicz, CFA – Toronto, Canada
alicia.buckiewicz@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto, Canada
farazeh.mahboob@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Thomas McGarrity, CFA – London, United Kingdom
thomas.mcgarrity@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China
jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
D isclosures and Disclaimer
disclosures, clients should refer to http://www.rbccm.com/
GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2 to view
disclosures regarding RBC Wealth Management and its affiliated
firms. Such information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth
Management Publishing, 60 South Sixth St, Minneapolis, MN 55402.
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history
chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its
affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include the
Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend
Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided
Portfolio: All Cap Growth (RL 12), and former lists called the Guided
Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL 9),
and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital
Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the
Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The abbreviation
‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended
List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed
from a Recommended List.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require
member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories
- Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm’s own rating
categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick
(TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most
closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the
meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a
relative basis (as described below).
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the
analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned
to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that
stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s
sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick
(TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most
closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the
meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a
relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected
to provide significant absolute total return over 12 months with a
favorable risk-reward ratio. Outperform (O): Expected to materially
outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP):
Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector
average over 12 months.
As of September 30, 2017
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] 859 52.92 294 34.23
Hold [Sector Perform] 660 40.67 154 23.33
Sell [Underperform] 104 6.41 7 6.73
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
7 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average
and Above Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a
security’s lower level of financial or operating predictability, illiquid
share trading volumes, high balance sheet leverage, or limited
operating history that result in a higher expectation of financial and/
or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Risks to Rating and Price Target
When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a
research report, FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into
the FINRA Rulebook) require that the basis for the valuation and
the impediments to obtaining that valuation be described. Where
applicable, this information is included in the text of our research
in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Risks to Rating and Price
Target”, respectively.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received
compensation that is based upon various factors, including total
revenues of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of
which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of
the member companies of RBC Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates.
Other Disclosures
Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources.
RBC Wealth Management prepared this report and takes sole
responsibility for its content and distribution. The content may have
been based, at least in part, on material provided by our third-party
correspondent research services. Our third-party correspondent
has given RBC Wealth Management general permission to use
its research reports as source materials, but has not reviewed or
approved this report, nor has it been informed of its publication. Our
third-party correspondent may from time to time have long or short
positions in, effect transactions in, and make markets in securities
referred to herein. Our third-party correspondent may from time to
time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit
investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned
in this report.
RBC Wealth Management endeavors to make all reasonable efforts
to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having
regard to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. In certain
investment advisory accounts, RBC Wealth Management will act as
overlay manager for our clients and will initiate transactions in the
securities referenced herein for those accounts upon receipt of this
report. These transactions may occur before or after your receipt of
this report and may have a short-term impact on the market price of
the securities in which transactions occur. RBC Wealth Management
research is posted to our proprietary Web sites to ensure eligible
clients receive coverage initiations and changes in rating, targets,
and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done
by sales personnel via e-mail, fax, or regular mail. Clients may also
receive our research via third-party vendors. Please contact your RBC
Wealth Management Financial Advisor for more information regarding
RBC Wealth Management research.
Conflicts Disclosure: RBC Wealth Management is registered with the
Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker/dealer and an
investment adviser, offering both brokerage and investment advisory
services. RBC Wealth Management’s Policy for Managing Conflicts of
Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on
our Web site at http://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/
DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2. Conflicts of interests related to
our investment advisory business can be found in Part II of the Firm’s
Form ADV or the Investment Advisor Group Disclosure Document.
Copies of any of these documents are available upon request
through your Financial Advisor. We reserve the right to amend or
supplement this policy, Part II of the ADV, or Disclosure Document at
any time.
The authors are employed by one of the following entities: RBC
Wealth Management USA, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, a
securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Minnesota
and New York, USA; by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities
broker-dealer with principal offices located in Toronto, Canada;
by RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, a subsidiary of RBC
Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal
offices located in Hong Kong, China; and by Royal Bank of Canada
Investment Management (U.K.) Limited, an investment management
company with principal offices located in London, United Kingdom.
Research Resources
This document is produced by the Global Portfolio Advisory
Committee within RBC Wealth Management’s Portfolio Advisory
Group. The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory Group provides support
related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for the firm’s
Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in
assembling portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities.
The Committee leverages the broad market outlook as developed by
the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, providing additional tactical
and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC Investment
Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources.
Third-party disclaimers
The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is
the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard
& Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither
MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any
GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations
with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by
the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of
originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting
any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any
third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications
have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any
other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such
damages.
References herein to “LIBOR”, “LIBO Rate”, “L” or other LIBOR abbreviations
means the London interbank offered rate as administered by ICE Benchmark
Administration (or any other person that takes over the administration of such
rate).
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth
Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to
be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by
Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates
contained in this report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of
the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided
in good faith but without legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide
8 | Global Insight Weekly
October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original
capital may occur. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries
throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and
other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as
the process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may
not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no
circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or
dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to
carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. Nothing
in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored
investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients,
including clients who are affiliates of Royal Bank of Canada, and does not have
regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who may
read it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable
for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment
advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services.
To the full extent permitted by law neither Royal Bank of Canada nor any of its
affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained
herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any
means without the prior consent of Royal Bank of Canada. Additional information
is available upon request.
To U.S. Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets,
LLC, Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and
which accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United
States. RBC Capital Markets, LLC, is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the
Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada.
Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank
acting in a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding,
or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report,
should contact and place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC. International
investing involves risks not typically associated with U.S. investing, including
currency fluctuation, foreign taxation, political instability and different accounting
standards.
To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion
Securities Inc. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are
separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor
Protection Fund. ®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under
license. RBC Wealth Management is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of
Canada. Used under license.
RBC Wealth Management (British Isles): This publication is distributed by Royal
Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited and RBC Investment
Solutions (CI) Limited. Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.)
Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Reference
number: 146504). Registered office: Riverbank House, 2 Swan Lane , London,
EC4R 3BF, UK. RBC Investment Solutions (CI) Limited is regulated by the Jersey
Financial Services Commission in the conduct of investment business in Jersey.
Registered office: Gaspé House, 66-72 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE2 3QT,
Channel Islands, registered company number 119162.
To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by
Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch which is regulated by the Hong
Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission (‘SFC’),
and RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, which is regulated by the SFC.
Financial Services provided to Australia: Financial services may be provided in
Australia in accordance with applicable law. Financial services provided by the
Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch are provided pursuant to the Royal
Bank of Canada’s Australian Financial Services Licence (‘AFSL’) (No. 246521).
To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by the
Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch, a registered entity granted offshore
bank licence by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been
prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives,
financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek indepen-
dent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do
not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is
suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you
have any questions related to this publication, please contact the Royal Bank
of Canada, Singapore Branch. Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch accepts
responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Singapore.
© RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2017 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
© RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2017 - Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund
© RBC Europe Limited 2017
© Royal Bank of Canada 2017
All rights reserved
RBC1253

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The Last Yield on Earth

  • 1. Click here for authors’ contact information. Priced (in USD) as of 10/12/17 market close, EST (unless otherwise stated). For important disclosures and required non-U.S. analyst disclosures, see page 6. So much for a “rising rate environment.” Preferred shares, often shunned by some investors for their generally higher interest rate risk, are having one of their best years since the financial crisis, despite a Fed that has stayed on course with respect to its rate hike plans. Depending on structure, the product is up between 7.8% and 9.7% so far this year in terms of total return, as shown in the chart. Variable-rate preferreds, also known as fixed-to-floaters or hybrids, have set the pace on a combination of strong demand from investors attracted to the fixed coupons that will flip to a floating coupon over Libor at a future date if not called, and on strong equity market performance for the Financials sector on robust earnings expectations—given that the big U.S. banks are the primary issuers of this product. Fixed-rate preferreds have performed well as yield curves have flattened, but have likely trailed given a greater diversity of issuers—though the Financials sector is also the largest issuer of this product as well. And even on the back of this rally, preferreds still offer some of the highest yields for U.S. investors. Speculative-grade corporates have performed strongly in recent months and credit spreads continue to tighten toward the tightest levels we have seen since 2007, bringing the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Ba-rated Speculative Grade Index to just 4%, essentially the lowest on record. Similarly rated preferred shares currently trade to average yields slightly north of 5%. Eye on valuations But the theme running through all of this is that investors remain on the hunt for yield. Treasury yield curves remain flat The last yield on Earth Tom Garretson – New York October 12, 2017 A closer look Preferred shares have been one of the top fixed income performers in 2017 for a number of fundamental reasons, but it may also be another sign that investors continue to stretch for yield—a perfect time for investors to take stock of their preferred stock. R B C W E A L T H M A N A G E M E N T Global InsightW e e k l y Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; date range: 12/30/16 through 10/10/17 Off to the races: Year-to-date fixed income performance 9.7% 7.8% 7.2% 5.4% 2.2% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17 Variable-rate preferreds Fixed-rate preferreds Speculative-grade corporates Investment-grade corporates Treasuries 3 Jump in U.S. wages should support another Fed rate hike 3 Rising rates and the cooling of Canada’s housing market 4 European earnings still shaping up to be robust 4 Stability reigns in the Chinese stock market Market pulse
  • 2. 2 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management so there is limited yield pickup in extending duration. Credit curves have flattened on record high equity prices and low market volatility, also limiting yield pickup from moving lower in credit quality. At last, investors are now moving down capital structures into preferred shares that lie just above common equity in terms of claim priority on company assets for the incremental yield. To be sure, this is a strategy we have supported for the entirety of 2017 in the Financials sector given the earnings outlook, but in any environment where it looks like investors are stretching for yield, it’s important to take a step back and assess risks and the potential for portfolio imbalances. Since the 2016 election and the broad-based bond selloff as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.60% from 1.70%, preferred prices have been on a one-way move higher, only showing modest weakness over the past three months as the 10-year has edged back toward 2.40%. So what to do now? We continue to like preferred shares for their income, but acknowledge that the total-return outlook may be more limited from here. $1,000 par variable-rate market There are two primary structures in this market, securities issued with fixed coupons for five years, and those issued with fixed coupons for 10 years. After that period they are either called or switch to floating coupons at a predetermined spread over 3-month Libor. The 5-year structure is sensitive to Fed rate hike expectations and could be right for investors who want short duration. Our preference remains for the 10 years of call protection on our view that the 10-year Treasury will stay range-bound, and that the Fed’s rate hike path should maintain a glacial pace. $25 par fixed-rate market The retail-focused $25 par market is prone to bouts of overvaluation, but we see opportunities in select issues that have recently been issued that are still trading near par and at yields between 5% and 6%, levels that look attractive relative to parts of the $1,000 fixed-to-float market. We would note that there are $25 par preferreds that feature the fixed-to-float structure, but retail investors are almost always able to find better value, and yield, in similar securities in the $1,000 par market. Time for a portfolio checkup At this juncture, it probably makes sense for investors to take stock of their preferred stock with a focus on issuer, structure, and credit quality concentration. In a diversified portfolio, we think investors should hold an allocation of roughly 5%–15% of fixed income assets depending on risk tolerance. We maintain a subdued yield outlook and since speculative-grade corporate valuations look exceedingly rich, we would prefer to add incremental yield Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s; data through 10/10/17 Preferred prices pull back with rise in Treasury yields 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Oct '16 Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 Jun '17 Aug '17 Post-election fixed income selloff Variable-rate preferreds (left axis) Fixed-rate preferreds (left axis) 10Y U.S. Treasury (inverted, right axis) Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/11/17 Opportunities to swap out of high premium securities 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Yieldtonextcall Discount/premium to par $1,000 par variable-rate securities $25 par fixed-rate securities via preferred shares where investors are lower in the capital structure, but typically in companies that are investment grade at the senior unsecured level. For investors who may have concentrated exposure to the big banks, the lower chart shows that in select cases there are opportunities to swap out of high premium $1,000 par issues and into the $25 fixed-rate market for both the incremental yield at prices near par, and for the potential to diversify issuer exposure. Finally, investors should review portfolios for excessive exposure to low-rated and small issue sizes that tend to dominate the $25 par market to ensure that credit risks have not grown beyond original portfolio objectives.
  • 3. 3 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management • While the 33,000 decline in the September payrolls report was the first decline in nonfarm payrolls since 2010, Treasury yields moved higher following the release as other metrics pointed to a material tightening in the labor market. The labor force participation rate increased to 63.1%, the highest level in over three years, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, a 16-year low, and wages jumped 2.9% y/y to a new cycle high. Most looked past the noisy headline number, which has always bounced back following hurricane-distorted data in the past, and, in our view, the Fed will look to the wage growth number as a reason to continue tightening the reins, which we believe will translate into a rate hike come December 13. Canada Alicia Buckiewicz & Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto • The cancellation of the Energy East and Eastern Mainline pipeline projects was made official. The announcement was not entirely unexpected given the National Energy Board (NEB) had already suspended its review of the proposal in September. The new regulatory requirement to consider the impact of upstream and downstream emission impacts of energy infrastructure projects ultimately made the approval impossible. This now forces oil shippers to support other projects and makes existing pipelines that much more valuable. Oil will likely have to be shipped by rail in Canada, despite being more expensive and less efficient. • RBC Economics believes that we are still in the early phase of a prolonged cooling process of Canada’s housing market, and expects that rising interest rates will drive the next phase in 2018—and quite possibly beyond. This factor will come to prominence after suites of policy measures brought forward by federal authorities and provincial governments in British Columbia and Ontario cooled some of the country’s overheated markets this year. RBC Economics believes that higher rates will strain affordability—already stretched in major markets—and, ultimately, restrain homebuyer demand. Resale activity is projected to fall for a second consecutive year in Canada in 2018, and prices to rise at a significantly slower pace. • The Canadian airlines had a very strong summer travel season and continued to report robust traffic growth trends in September, with record load factors, while managing capacity. As such, RBC Capital Markets has increased its traffic assumptions and believes there is a good chance both Canadian airlines will report another strong earnings beat in Q3. United States Bill Kuehn & Sam Renikoff – Minneapolis • The release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting revealed that there was a robust, if not heated debate surrounding the topic of inflation, which has persistently trended below the Fed’s 2% target. There appears to be a growing camp within the Fed that sees low inflation as more than simply “transitory,” with some members expressing concern that low inflation is the result of “the influence of developments that could prove more persistent.” We would highlight disruptive technologies and services, such as Uber and Airbnb, as examples of this, which have begun to have disinflationary effects in their respective industries. But nonetheless, inflation concerns weren’t enough to shake the Fed from its tightening bias, and a December rate hike was left firmly on the table. • Despite lagging inflation, labor market strength has acted as an anchor for the Fed to continue hiking rates. The minutes noted that the average job additions of 172,000 in the summer months “remained well above the pace likely to be sustainable in the longer run,” and that alternate measures of labor market strength like the quits rate, household assessment of job availability, and individuals working part-time for economic reasons have all returned to pre-recession levels. And while the Fed noted that wage growth has been subdued, officials pointed out that surveys from their local districts indicated employers were “raising wages noticeably to compete for supply and limit turnover.” Thus, the Fed noted that “a broader acceleration in wages may have already begun.” Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/6/17 Tight labor market draws workers off sidelines at record pace 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3,000K 3,200K 3,400K 3,600K 3,800K 4,000K 4,200K 4,400K 4,600K 4,800K 5,000K 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Flows from outside labor force to employed Average hourly earnings y/y
  • 4. 4 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management Europe Frédérique Carrier & Thomas McGarrity – London • Catalan leaders opted not to declare independence, at least not yet, thereby defusing somewhat an acrimonious conflict. Tempers may have been tapered as the cost of declaring outright independence became more obvious. Independence would mean ejection not only from the EU, but also from the euro. It would also mean the region, which has so far enjoyed low levels of indebtedness, would have to take on its share of Spanish debt. RBC Capital Markets estimates that this would bring the debt burden from a light and enviable 35% of GDP closer to 100% of GDP. • The strength of the euro will likely prove to be a headwind for Q3 earnings in Europe, with the EUR/USD up 5% y/y during the quarter. However, European earnings are still expected to be robust with consensus estimates for the EURO STOXX 50 Index, the blue-chip index for the 50 largest companies in the eurozone, suggesting growth of 8% in Q3. Underpinned by bank lending and less austere governments, eurozone business confidence is at a 10-year high while German household confidence is at a 30-year high. For full-year 2018, consensus has pencilled in growth of 8.8%, which seems achievable, in our view. • In the U.K., the Office for Budget Responsibility, the country’s fiscal watchdog, suggested it will probably cut its forecasts for productivity gains. This will lower the outlook for economic growth and worsen the state of public finances, potentially leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond with a significantly smaller fiscal margin to cushion the economy against any Brexit fallout. • The monthly RICS house price index for September was stable at +6. However, sentiment on the outlook for the market slipped, which suggests prices are expected to fall over the next three months while growth over the coming year is predicted to be the weakest since June 2016. The survey continues to highlight the difference between London/the southeast of England, where prices are expected to continue to fall, and the rest of the U.K., where prices are rising. A sia Paci fi c Jay Roberts – Hong Kong • Asian equities reached a new high for the year and for this cycle. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is up 22% in 2017 and a short distance beneath its all-time high. Asian stocks, similar to major equities across the globe, have been buoyed by the coordinated strength in global leading economic indicators this year. • Japan’s TOPIX broke through the 1,700 level for the first time in this cycle while the Nikkei, another benchmark index, reached its highest level since 1996. The Japanese election will take place on October 22. It is highly likely that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win, although it is less certain if his Liberal Democratic Party will gain a two-thirds majority. A win for Abe would be viewed positively by Japanese equity investors. • Stability continues to reign in the Chinese stock market. Reports by Bloomberg suggest that state-backed funds were buying stocks in order to support the market after China’s sovereign rating was cut by S&P (although the outlook was upgraded to stable from negative). Then it was reported that on Monday, October 9, funds were selling stocks in order to limit gains in the market. In stark contrast to the high levels of equity market volatility seen in 2015, volatility in mainland Chinese stocks has now fallen to its lowest level in over two decades. • These events are consistent with the government’s desire for stability in financial markets heading into the Party Congress in the second half of October. For more on this, as well as our thoughts on state-owned enterprise reform and the changing composition of China’s equity markets, please see the article China: The long march to reform. • China’s forex (FX) reserves rose again in September, as has been the case throughout 2017. FX reserves have risen by approximately $100B this year to $3.1T, although this remains far below the peak of $4T. Data in 2017 does point to a calmer environment in terms of capital outflows from China. Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 4:00 pm GMT 10/12/17 Second-half European equity returns are relatively more influenced by currency fluctuations Returns since June 30, 2017 10.5% 5.5% 6.1% 3.3% 2.9% 5.4% 10.4% 5.5% 9.1% 4.6% 6.7% S&P 500 Hong Kong Japan China U.K. Continental Europe U.S. dollar returns Local currency returns
  • 5. 5 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management Data as of October 12, 2017 Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX and Brazilian Ibovespa. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper Index data and U.S. fixed income returns as of Wednesday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 8:35 pm GMT 10/12/17. Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD 7.7% return means the Canadian dollar rose 7.7% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 112.29 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 112.29 yen. USD/JPY -4.0% return means the U.S. dollar fell 4.0% vs. the yen year to date. Commodities (USD) Price MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr Gold (spot $/oz) 1,293.30 1.0% 12.2% 3.0% 11.1% Silver (spot $/oz) 17.24 3.5% 8.3% -1.4% 8.8% Copper ($/metric ton) 6,756.00 5.0% 22.3% 41.0% 26.8% Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 50.60 -2.1% -5.8% 0.8% 7.4% Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 56.34 -2.1% -0.8% 8.7% 13.0% Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) 2.99 -0.5% -19.7% -6.8% 18.0% Govt bonds (bps chg) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.320% -1.4 -12.5 55.0 23.1 Canada 10-Yr 2.082% -1.7 36.1 88.6 56.3 U.K. 10-Yr 1.381% 1.6 14.2 33.8 -43.7 Germany 10-Yr 0.445% -1.9 23.7 37.8 -13.3 Fixed Income (returns) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr U.S. Aggregate 2.57% 0.0% 3.2% 0.7% 5.2% U.S. Invest Grade Corp 3.15% 0.2% 5.4% 3.0% 10.8% U.S. High Yield Corp 5.43% 0.2% 7.3% 8.6% 20.5% Currencies Rate MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr U.S. Dollar Index 93.1010 0.0% -8.9% -5.0% -1.8% CAD/USD 0.8015 0.0% 7.7% 6.4% 4.2% USD/CAD 1.2476 0.0% -7.2% -6.0% -4.0% EUR/USD 1.1831 0.1% 12.5% 7.5% 4.2% GBP/USD 1.3268 -1.0% 7.5% 8.7% -13.6% AUD/USD 0.7819 -0.2% 8.5% 3.4% 6.2% USD/JPY 112.2900 -0.2% -4.0% 7.8% -6.5% EUR/JPY 132.8500 -0.1% 8.0% 15.8% -2.6% EUR/GBP 0.8917 1.1% 4.5% -1.1% 20.5% EUR/CHF 1.1539 0.9% 7.6% 5.8% 5.5% USD/SGD 1.3524 -0.4% -6.5% -2.3% -3.3% USD/CNY 6.5875 -1.0% -5.1% -2.0% 4.2% USD/MXN 18.8879 3.5% -8.9% -0.2% 14.8% USD/BRL 3.1730 0.3% -2.5% -0.7% -15.7% MARKET SCORECARD Equities (local currency) Level MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr S&P 500 2,550.93 1.3% 13.9% 19.2% 26.4% Dow Industrials (DJIA) 22,841.01 1.9% 15.6% 25.9% 33.3% NASDAQ 6,591.51 1.5% 22.4% 25.8% 36.2% Russell 2000 1,505.16 1.0% 10.9% 22.6% 29.3% S&P/TSX Comp 15,742.20 0.7% 3.0% 7.7% 12.7% FTSE All-Share 4,145.98 2.4% 7.0% 8.7% 18.9% STOXX Europe 600 390.28 0.5% 8.0% 15.3% 7.9% EURO STOXX 50 3,605.54 0.3% 9.6% 19.9% 11.0% Hang Seng 28,459.03 3.3% 29.4% 21.6% 25.2% Shanghai Comp 3,386.10 1.1% 9.1% 10.7% 3.0% Nikkei 225 20,954.72 2.9% 9.6% 24.4% 13.6% India Sensex 32,182.22 2.9% 20.9% 14.6% 19.6% Singapore Straits Times 3,303.09 2.6% 14.7% 17.4% 8.9% Brazil Ibovespa 76,659.80 3.2% 27.3% 25.6% 55.4% Mexican Bolsa IPC 49,962.79 -0.8% 9.5% 4.3% 12.7% UPCOMING EVENTS The dates reflect North American time zones. All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available. Fri, Oct 13 Sun, Oct 15, cont. Wed, Oct 18 Wed, Oct 18, cont. Germany CPI Yellen Speaks at G-30 Panel (DC) China GDP (6.8% y/y, 1.7% q/q) U.S. Fed Releases Beige Book U.S. CPI (0.6% m/m, 2.3% y/y) Tue, Oct 17 China Retail Sales (10.1% y/y) NY Fed President Dudley Speaks U.S. Real Avg. Weekly Earnings Eurozone CPI (Headline and Core) China Fixed Assets (7.7% y/y) Thu, Oct 19 U.S. Retail Sales Advance (1.7% m/m) Eurozone ZEW Surveys China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) U.K. Retail Sales U.S. Retail Sales Control Grp. (0.4% m/m) Germany ZEW Surveys Japan Imports/Exports U.S. Leading Index (0.1% m/m) U.S. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment U.K. CPI (Headline and Core) China Industrial Production (6.5% y/y) Wed, Oct 25 Sun, Oct 15 U.S. Industrial Production (0.3% m/m) Japan Imports/Exports BoC Meeting China CPI (1.6% y/y) U.S. Capacity Utilization (76.1%) U.K. ILO Unemployment Thu, Oct 26 Austrian Legislative Election U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (63) U.S. Housing Starts (1.18M, 0.0% m/m) ECB Meeting
  • 6. 6 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management Authors Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Alicia Buckiewicz, Farazeh Mahboob, and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Frédérique Carrier and Thomas McGarrity, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts. In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information by reference. To access current Tom Garretson, CFA – New York, United States tom.garretson@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC Alicia Buckiewicz, CFA – Toronto, Canada alicia.buckiewicz@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto, Canada farazeh.mahboob@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd. Thomas McGarrity, CFA – London, United Kingdom thomas.mcgarrity@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. D isclosures and Disclaimer disclosures, clients should refer to http://www.rbccm.com/ GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2 to view disclosures regarding RBC Wealth Management and its affiliated firms. Such information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth Management Publishing, 60 South Sixth St, Minneapolis, MN 55402. References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio: All Cap Growth (RL 12), and former lists called the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL 9), and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. Distribution of Ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). Ratings: Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months. Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months. As of September 30, 2017 Rating Count Percent Count Percent Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] 859 52.92 294 34.23 Hold [Sector Perform] 660 40.67 154 23.33 Sell [Underperform] 104 6.41 7 6.73 Investment Banking Services Provided During Past 12 Months Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
  • 7. 7 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management Risk Rating: As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of financial and/ or stock price volatility. Valuation and Risks to Rating and Price Target When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report, FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into the FINRA Rulebook) require that the basis for the valuation and the impediments to obtaining that valuation be described. Where applicable, this information is included in the text of our research in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Risks to Rating and Price Target”, respectively. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates. Other Disclosures Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material provided by our third-party correspondent research services. Our third-party correspondent has given RBC Wealth Management general permission to use its research reports as source materials, but has not reviewed or approved this report, nor has it been informed of its publication. 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The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory Group provides support related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for the firm’s Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in assembling portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities. The Committee leverages the broad market outlook as developed by the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, providing additional tactical and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources. Third-party disclaimers The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. 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References herein to “LIBOR”, “LIBO Rate”, “L” or other LIBOR abbreviations means the London interbank offered rate as administered by ICE Benchmark Administration (or any other person that takes over the administration of such rate). Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide
  • 8. 8 | Global Insight Weekly October 12, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. 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