This report details performance, investment themes, and position changes to the Seton Hall University Student Managed Investment Fund Portfolio thru May 2018.
- The US equity market has outperformed the Canadian market over the past quarter due to its sector compositions which favor healthcare and technology over energy and utilities. As a result, the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar.
- Low energy prices have negatively impacted the Canadian economy, particularly in Alberta, with major firms beginning layoffs. However, low prices are boosting the US economy through increased consumer spending.
- Uncertainty around oil prices and the new NDP government in Alberta are curtailing capital investment, which is now flowing to other provinces like Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Oil prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand.
- The document discusses upcoming Q3 earnings reports and their importance for providing fundamental insights into global supply and demand trends. It notes markets have been volatile due to uncertainty, but earnings reports will help reduce uncertainty by revealing actual profit levels.
- It also summarizes the recent rise in oil prices driven by falling rig counts and geopolitical concerns, but notes inventory levels remain high and further gains may be limited. For natural gas, it discusses oversupply issues and low prices but signs the downward trend may be reversing.
Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell
Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger
Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns
The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded
Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC
Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the ‘subsidy arbitrage’ is over
This edition of Energy Perspectives summarizes industry activity in 2015 and outlook for 2016. Cost-cutting and balance sheet restructurings prevailed in 2015 in an effort to ensure survival in early 2016. M&A activity may be led by distressed opportunities, while bankruptcies are expected to accelerate. Once the industry reaches equilibrium, consolidation is expected as a means to capitalize on the “New Normal.”
The document summarizes key themes from oil and gas company earnings calls in Q1 2019. The top three themes were 1) portfolio optimization, 2) cash flow, and 3) project updates. Financial performance dominated calls, with a focus on project expansions, US shale consolidation, and the growing importance of gas. Cost control and efficiency remained priorities amid pressure on margins. North American shale consolidation and interest in alternative energy were expected to continue going forward.
This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
- The US equity market has outperformed the Canadian market over the past quarter due to its sector compositions which favor healthcare and technology over energy and utilities. As a result, the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar.
- Low energy prices have negatively impacted the Canadian economy, particularly in Alberta, with major firms beginning layoffs. However, low prices are boosting the US economy through increased consumer spending.
- Uncertainty around oil prices and the new NDP government in Alberta are curtailing capital investment, which is now flowing to other provinces like Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Oil prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand.
- The document discusses upcoming Q3 earnings reports and their importance for providing fundamental insights into global supply and demand trends. It notes markets have been volatile due to uncertainty, but earnings reports will help reduce uncertainty by revealing actual profit levels.
- It also summarizes the recent rise in oil prices driven by falling rig counts and geopolitical concerns, but notes inventory levels remain high and further gains may be limited. For natural gas, it discusses oversupply issues and low prices but signs the downward trend may be reversing.
Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell
Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger
Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns
The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded
Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC
Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the ‘subsidy arbitrage’ is over
This edition of Energy Perspectives summarizes industry activity in 2015 and outlook for 2016. Cost-cutting and balance sheet restructurings prevailed in 2015 in an effort to ensure survival in early 2016. M&A activity may be led by distressed opportunities, while bankruptcies are expected to accelerate. Once the industry reaches equilibrium, consolidation is expected as a means to capitalize on the “New Normal.”
The document summarizes key themes from oil and gas company earnings calls in Q1 2019. The top three themes were 1) portfolio optimization, 2) cash flow, and 3) project updates. Financial performance dominated calls, with a focus on project expansions, US shale consolidation, and the growing importance of gas. Cost control and efficiency remained priorities amid pressure on margins. North American shale consolidation and interest in alternative energy were expected to continue going forward.
This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: January 2018 ReportSergii Kurbatov
Commodities are favored in 2018, with mean reversion trends supporting gains. While energy is extended and agriculture subdued, metals provide a steady bull market lead. The document analyzes performance drivers and outlooks for various commodity sectors, finding that grains may be poised to advance on weather normalization, while crude oil faces liquidation risks at elevated price levels. Metals should remain strong overall, though industrial metals face resistance without copper's participation in the recent rally.
EY Analyst themes of quarterly oil & gas earnings: 3Q18EY
Oil & gas companies are reporting stronger cash flows and improved bottom lines. Analysts are focused on how that cash will be put to work. Do they return cash to shareholders or do they expand portfolios, possibly taking advantage of stronger market indicators? Macro factors and timing are likely to play a greater role as markets reset.
Capital Markets Insights: Credit Availability for the Middle Market Remains R...Duff & Phelps
Recent trimming in first lien debt appetite resulted in a higher proportion of second lien and junior debt in capital structures. The fuller covenant packages typical of the private market, combined with unabated growth in private investor capital formation, have served to differentiate middle market conditions from those of the broader liquid markets. While the weighted average cost of debt for middle market issuers has increased modestly, credit availability — both in terms of leverage multiples and cost — is robust.
This document provides an analysis and recommendation for RPM International Inc. (RPM) stock. Key points include:
- RPM is a market leader in coatings, sealants, and building materials with global operations and $4.8 billion in sales.
- Analysts issue a "hold" recommendation as RPM's stock is fairly priced given its stable cash flows and growth is already reflected in the share price.
- RPM demonstrates reliable cash flows as 70% of revenue comes from repair and maintenance spending which is less vulnerable to economic downturns.
- Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth, interest rates, currency exchange rates and oil prices were also considered in the analysis.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
The portfolio returned 2.1% in the second quarter, outperforming its benchmark. Since inception in 2007, the strategy has earned an annualized return of 10.0% versus 5.0% for the benchmark, placing it in the top 4% of its peers. During the quarter, strong stock selection in technology and services drove positive returns, while concerns over economic recovery impacted defensive sectors. A provider of procurement software, Sci-Quest, helped performance as it was awarded a new state contract, while an auto parts e-commerce site, US Auto Parts, declined on lower website traffic. Looking ahead, the economic outlook is mixed but portfolio companies remain well positioned for growth.
The document summarizes and analyzes recent economic data and events that impact commodity markets. It discusses:
- The July US jobs report which showed 215,000 jobs added and unemployment at 5.3%, a result that was neither strongly positive nor negative. This leaves uncertainty around the timing of the Fed's first rate hike.
- Comments from an Atlanta Fed president supporting a September rate hike if data holds.
- Implications for commodity markets, including that oil and natural gas prices declined last week while uncertainty persists over the Fed and US dollar.
- Upcoming seasonal trends that may lead to natural gas price increases in the next few months.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
This document provides an analysis of Continental Resources Inc. It begins with an overview of the company and its operations, followed by sections analyzing the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Key points include Continental's focus on oil production, its largest leaseholds being in the Bakken and Anadarko Woodford plays, and revenues of $1.6 billion in 2011. The analysis also examines economic factors impacting the industry and Continental's stock performance. It concludes with a valuation of Continental's stock and a recommendation to buy.
This document analyzes Southwestern Energy Company (SWN), an independent energy company focused on natural gas and oil exploration. It summarizes the company's operations, stock performance, and financial metrics. The analyst provides a positive economic outlook, expecting GDP and energy demand to increase gradually. The report recommends buying SWN stock based on its research and intrinsic value estimate of $43.51, above the current market price.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
BoyarMiller "The Energy Industry 2016" eBookBoyarMiller
BoyarMiller invited energy industry experts David A. Pursell with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., Matthew G. Pilon with Simmons & Company International and Robert A. Dye, Ph.D. with Comerica Bank for a discussion on the current regulatory/political climate, trends and what to look for this year, and when the industry recovers.
http://www.boyarmiller.com/news-and-publications/events/breakfast-forum-the-energy-industry-2016-looking-forward/
This document provides an analysis of recent market movements and economic factors. It summarizes that the recent rally in US equities could make October the strongest month of the year. It also discusses that irrational behavior by markets and investors has driven prices rather than economic fundamentals. Specific companies like Walmart are seen as reflecting the broader economic challenges of slowing demand and rising costs. The document concludes by acknowledging the irrational forces at play in global markets and economies.
- The Nifty index witnessed a sharp pullback on Friday from the 38.2% retracement of the preceding two weeks' up move. The corrective decline has helped the Stochastic oscillator cool off from the overbought condition.
- December retail sales are expected to be better than November due to high discounts. Wholesale vehicle sales for December 2019 are expected to show relatively better performance for passenger vehicles, with continued de-growth for commercial vehicles and two-wheelers.
- Technically, minor support for Nifty Bank index lies at 31,950 levels, while minor resistance is at 32,500-32,700 levels. A close below support may lead to a breakdown to major support
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Data as of Mid-Year 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Investment review and outlook august 2018 Roger Beutler
The document provides an investment review and outlook for August 2018. It summarizes recent performance across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, real assets, and private equity. While equity returns have been strong, markets face increased risks due to high valuations, rising interest rates, and potential trade wars. Diversification across asset classes remains important, as different areas may provide opportunities even during market downturns. Selective, globally diversified investments could continue generating attractive returns going forward despite challenges in the current investing environment.
U.S. markets saw mixed returns in December as signs of economic recovery were offset by weaknesses emerging in the housing and bond markets. While job growth and consumer confidence recovered from hurricanes, housing data showed declining sales and rising inventories. Bond yields also inverted for the first time since 2000, a potential warning sign of recession. The Federal Reserve raised rates again but investors hoped this signaled the end of the tightening cycle. Overall, the document assessed recent economic indicators and market performance in December and provided an outlook looking into 2006.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: January 2018 ReportSergii Kurbatov
Commodities are favored in 2018, with mean reversion trends supporting gains. While energy is extended and agriculture subdued, metals provide a steady bull market lead. The document analyzes performance drivers and outlooks for various commodity sectors, finding that grains may be poised to advance on weather normalization, while crude oil faces liquidation risks at elevated price levels. Metals should remain strong overall, though industrial metals face resistance without copper's participation in the recent rally.
EY Analyst themes of quarterly oil & gas earnings: 3Q18EY
Oil & gas companies are reporting stronger cash flows and improved bottom lines. Analysts are focused on how that cash will be put to work. Do they return cash to shareholders or do they expand portfolios, possibly taking advantage of stronger market indicators? Macro factors and timing are likely to play a greater role as markets reset.
Capital Markets Insights: Credit Availability for the Middle Market Remains R...Duff & Phelps
Recent trimming in first lien debt appetite resulted in a higher proportion of second lien and junior debt in capital structures. The fuller covenant packages typical of the private market, combined with unabated growth in private investor capital formation, have served to differentiate middle market conditions from those of the broader liquid markets. While the weighted average cost of debt for middle market issuers has increased modestly, credit availability — both in terms of leverage multiples and cost — is robust.
This document provides an analysis and recommendation for RPM International Inc. (RPM) stock. Key points include:
- RPM is a market leader in coatings, sealants, and building materials with global operations and $4.8 billion in sales.
- Analysts issue a "hold" recommendation as RPM's stock is fairly priced given its stable cash flows and growth is already reflected in the share price.
- RPM demonstrates reliable cash flows as 70% of revenue comes from repair and maintenance spending which is less vulnerable to economic downturns.
- Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth, interest rates, currency exchange rates and oil prices were also considered in the analysis.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
The portfolio returned 2.1% in the second quarter, outperforming its benchmark. Since inception in 2007, the strategy has earned an annualized return of 10.0% versus 5.0% for the benchmark, placing it in the top 4% of its peers. During the quarter, strong stock selection in technology and services drove positive returns, while concerns over economic recovery impacted defensive sectors. A provider of procurement software, Sci-Quest, helped performance as it was awarded a new state contract, while an auto parts e-commerce site, US Auto Parts, declined on lower website traffic. Looking ahead, the economic outlook is mixed but portfolio companies remain well positioned for growth.
The document summarizes and analyzes recent economic data and events that impact commodity markets. It discusses:
- The July US jobs report which showed 215,000 jobs added and unemployment at 5.3%, a result that was neither strongly positive nor negative. This leaves uncertainty around the timing of the Fed's first rate hike.
- Comments from an Atlanta Fed president supporting a September rate hike if data holds.
- Implications for commodity markets, including that oil and natural gas prices declined last week while uncertainty persists over the Fed and US dollar.
- Upcoming seasonal trends that may lead to natural gas price increases in the next few months.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
This document provides an analysis of Continental Resources Inc. It begins with an overview of the company and its operations, followed by sections analyzing the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Key points include Continental's focus on oil production, its largest leaseholds being in the Bakken and Anadarko Woodford plays, and revenues of $1.6 billion in 2011. The analysis also examines economic factors impacting the industry and Continental's stock performance. It concludes with a valuation of Continental's stock and a recommendation to buy.
This document analyzes Southwestern Energy Company (SWN), an independent energy company focused on natural gas and oil exploration. It summarizes the company's operations, stock performance, and financial metrics. The analyst provides a positive economic outlook, expecting GDP and energy demand to increase gradually. The report recommends buying SWN stock based on its research and intrinsic value estimate of $43.51, above the current market price.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
BoyarMiller "The Energy Industry 2016" eBookBoyarMiller
BoyarMiller invited energy industry experts David A. Pursell with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., Matthew G. Pilon with Simmons & Company International and Robert A. Dye, Ph.D. with Comerica Bank for a discussion on the current regulatory/political climate, trends and what to look for this year, and when the industry recovers.
http://www.boyarmiller.com/news-and-publications/events/breakfast-forum-the-energy-industry-2016-looking-forward/
This document provides an analysis of recent market movements and economic factors. It summarizes that the recent rally in US equities could make October the strongest month of the year. It also discusses that irrational behavior by markets and investors has driven prices rather than economic fundamentals. Specific companies like Walmart are seen as reflecting the broader economic challenges of slowing demand and rising costs. The document concludes by acknowledging the irrational forces at play in global markets and economies.
- The Nifty index witnessed a sharp pullback on Friday from the 38.2% retracement of the preceding two weeks' up move. The corrective decline has helped the Stochastic oscillator cool off from the overbought condition.
- December retail sales are expected to be better than November due to high discounts. Wholesale vehicle sales for December 2019 are expected to show relatively better performance for passenger vehicles, with continued de-growth for commercial vehicles and two-wheelers.
- Technically, minor support for Nifty Bank index lies at 31,950 levels, while minor resistance is at 32,500-32,700 levels. A close below support may lead to a breakdown to major support
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Data as of Mid-Year 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Investment review and outlook august 2018 Roger Beutler
The document provides an investment review and outlook for August 2018. It summarizes recent performance across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, real assets, and private equity. While equity returns have been strong, markets face increased risks due to high valuations, rising interest rates, and potential trade wars. Diversification across asset classes remains important, as different areas may provide opportunities even during market downturns. Selective, globally diversified investments could continue generating attractive returns going forward despite challenges in the current investing environment.
U.S. markets saw mixed returns in December as signs of economic recovery were offset by weaknesses emerging in the housing and bond markets. While job growth and consumer confidence recovered from hurricanes, housing data showed declining sales and rising inventories. Bond yields also inverted for the first time since 2000, a potential warning sign of recession. The Federal Reserve raised rates again but investors hoped this signaled the end of the tightening cycle. Overall, the document assessed recent economic indicators and market performance in December and provided an outlook looking into 2006.
This document provides an investment outlook and recommendations for building a defensive portfolio amid rising economic and political risks while also seizing opportunities. It recommends maintaining adequate liquidity through cash reserves, holding high-quality intermediate bonds for diversification and yield, and selectively investing in areas with potential for earnings growth like technology and healthcare stocks as well as US small caps and high-yield bonds when prices decline due to market volatility. While there are challenges like low productivity growth, the document argues that innovation and business creation will support continued economic expansion over the long term.
The U.S. Tech sector’s new record high has brought back memories of the dot-com bubble. But unlike then,
today’s Tech sector is not propped up by fanciful talk. It’s led by companies that are truly transforming the
economy and our lives.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
High Yield Bonds in 2018: living in a low-default worldJurgen Vluijmans
1) The global economy is showing signs of synchronized recovery with solid economic activity, growing trade, rising corporate profits and falling unemployment. However, this recovery has not yet translated to clearly rising wages or inflation.
2) In 2017, high-yield bonds performed well with returns around 5% as risk tolerance increased amid low interest rates. Defaults have remained low and are expected to stay low in 2018.
3) Currently, B-rated bonds offer more value after recent spread widening. Overall, the authors still see value in European high-yield bonds given the strength of the global economy, though performance may be impacted as the ECB winds down its bond purchase program.
Merrill Lynch provides an overview of their Canadian equity strategy and outlook. They maintain a cautious outlook on the overall market and preference for defensive sectors. They expect Canadian GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2006 to 2.3% in 2007, weighing on corporate earnings. Their analysis suggests TSX earnings per share growth may contract in 2007 rather than the 13% consensus growth. Foreign and domestic investors may also shift away from Canadian stocks due to weaker resource sectors and the Canadian dollar, putting downward pressure on valuations.
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Venture Capital Mark...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Venture Capital Marks and Trends Newsletter provides a brief digest and commentary of some of the most relevant market trends influencing the fair value regarding private equity portfolio investments.
Stocks rallied in May, with several indexes reaching record highs. Economic conditions have improved from a year ago, with inflation stabilizing and business spending recovering. Corporate earnings grew 8.1% in the first quarter, ending a streak of 14 quarters of double-digit growth. While markets have reached milestones, valuations are still relatively reasonable compared to the tech bubble peak in 2000.
The document summarizes private markets fundraising trends in 2017. Some key points:
- Private markets fundraising reached a record $750 billion globally in 2017, driven primarily by a surge in US buyout megafunds (funds over $5 billion).
- US buyout megafunds raised $173.7 billion in 2017, a 93% increase from 2016. This surge accounted for most of the overall private markets fundraising growth.
- Investors continue to allocate heavily to private markets like private equity due to the potential for higher returns compared to public markets. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds see private markets as a way to address underfunding issues and volatility.
U.S. economic growth is expected to remain steady in 2016, though risks remain. Global growth is slowing, which could impact the U.S. through trade and capital flows pushing up the dollar. Consumer spending and the labor market are improving, but weak productivity growth may limit income gains. Business investment is also expected to increase but risks remain from low oil prices. The Federal Reserve will continue raising rates gradually based on economic data. Residential investment is also expected to strengthen as household formations increase.
Why Global Diversification Matters By Anthony Davidow Ap.docxgauthierleppington
Why Global Diversification Matters
By Anthony Davidow
April 02, 2018
Over the past few years, some investors have begun to question the merits of global asset
allocation. They wonder whether the risks abroad justify investing money outside the United
States—and whether there truly are diversification benefits to doing so. Some have even
challenged Modern Portfolio Theory itself, which emphasizes the long-term benefits of a
diversified portfolio.
In some ways it’s natural. It’s an unpredictable world, and investors worry about market
volatility both at home and abroad. Everything from political questions in the wake of the U.K.’s
“Brexit” vote in the summer of 2016 to the recent U.S. elections to anticipation of the Federal
Reserve raising rates have indeed contributed to market swings.
Moreover, in investing—as in sports and other areas of life—people often exhibit familiarity bias
(“home-country bias” in this case). We’re inclined to believe in and root for the things that we
know best. While this may be human nature, home-country bias limits an investor’s universe of
available opportunities. Worse, it may not be prudent given the nature of today’s global markets:
According to MSCI data, roughly half of all global companies are based outside the United
States, which corresponds to global gross domestic product (GDP) ratios.
Do you really want to limit your investment opportunities by half? How can you overcome
home-country bias?
As the saying goes…
Times like these show why the adage “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is so vital for
investors. An investment sector that performs well one month or year might be a poor performer
the next. For example, as the chart below shows, emerging market stocks were the worst
performer in 2008—only to rebound back to the top in 2009 and also 2017. More recently,
international developed stocks were among the top performers in 2017, after placing near the
bottom in 2016.
Over the long run, there’s no discernible pattern to the rotation among the top performers, so it
doesn’t make much sense to concentrate all your investments in a particular region or asset class.
A globally diversified portfolio—one that puts its eggs in many baskets, so to speak—tends to be
better positioned to weather large year-over-year market gyrations and provide a more stable set
of returns over time.
How key asset classes compare to a diversified portfolio
Source: Morningstar Direct and the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Data is from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017. Asset class
performance represented by annual total returns for the following indexes: S&P 500® Index (U.S. Lg Cap), Russell 2000® Index (U.S. Sm Cap),
MSCI EAFE® net of taxes (Int’l Dev), MSCI Emerging Markets IndexSM (EM), S&P United States REIT Index and S&P Global Ex-U.S. REIT
Index (REITs), S&P GSCI® (Commodities), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS) Index, Bloo.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth Managementwash_trust
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
The document summarizes the outlook and strategy of the Global Commodity Systematic Program (GCS) managed by Global Advisors. GCS uses a rules-based, non-discretionary approach to identify and manage trends across 35 commodity markets. It expects profitable opportunities over the next few years due to factors such as the devaluation of paper currencies, continued demand growth in emerging markets like China, a supply shock from reduced commodity investment, and increasing investment in commodities from stock market investors. Charts are presented supporting these views, and it is argued that if commodity markets exhibit strong trends, the GCS program will be able to generate strong returns managing those trends.
Outlook Summary
Global growth trends remain higher as world experiences synchronized recovery
Maturing earnings growth cycle could increase focus on excessive valuations
Global central banks attempting to thread the needle on policy normalization
Mid-term elections heat up as cyclical bull market approaches maturity
Stock market volatility likely to rise in 2018 and test ability of investors to look past the noise. S&P 500 expected to consolidate gains of the past two years, trading in wide range and finishing the year near where it begins
Bond yields likely to move higher, with the 10-year T-Note yield reaching 3.0%
The document discusses the outlook for various asset classes including equities, fixed income, and alternatives. It provides aggregate forecasts for key metrics like earnings growth, return on equity, and dividend yields for different regions. The outlook is that the bull market in equities remains intact but late stage, and earnings growth will be an important driver of returns going forward. US equities are forecast to see double digit earnings growth in 2017, while European equities remain cheap relative to fundamentals but political uncertainty has weighed on sentiment.
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press ReleaseLHelferty
June 12, 2024 UnityNet International (#UNI) World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release from Markham / Mississauga, Ontario in the, Greater Tkaronto Bioregion, Canada in the North American Great Lakes Watersheds of North America (Turtle Island).
Cleades Robinson, a respected leader in Philadelphia's police force, is known for his diplomatic and tactful approach, fostering a strong community rapport.
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdfSOFTTECHHUB
The world of blockchain and decentralized technologies is about to witness a groundbreaking event. ZKsync, the pioneering Ethereum Layer 2 network, has announced the highly anticipated airdrop of its native token, ZK. This move marks a significant milestone in the protocol's journey, empowering the community to take the reins and shape the future of this revolutionary ecosystem.
World economy charts case study presented by a Big 4
World economy charts case study presented by a Big 4
World economy charts case
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World economy charts case study presented by a Big 4World economy charts case study presented by a Big 4
World economy charts case study presented by a Big 4
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Methanex is the world's largest producer and supplier of methanol. We create value through our leadership in the global production, marketing and delivery of methanol to customers. View our latest Investor Presentation for more details.
mba project CRED.docx report for students final year
Spring '18 Portfolio Performance
1. May 1st, 2018
Portfolio Report
bit.ly/shuportfolio
$158,100 (+$5661)
+4.57% ytd
+5.53% α
S&P 500: -0.96% ytd
Coverage:
Henry Steck
Portfolio Manager
henry.steck@student.shu.edu
Michael Roma
Portfolio Manager
michael.roma@student.shu.edu
SHU Student Managed Investment Fund (SMIF)
Spring 2018 Results
Fund Navigated Volatility Producing Success: Overweight Energy,
Overweight International, Timely Reductions in Beta
SMIF Alpha Production through Energy & International Names | Henry Steck
Although global economic conditions are improving, investors are still cautiously navigating
the slowest economic recovery since World War Two. Global growth has been robust, but
fears of inflation and central bank policy movement still loom. Most recently, these fears con-
tributed to significant spike in volatility.
The VIX remained below 12 and
trended downward to a low of 8
throughout 2017 as equities ral-
lied with little turbulence. Vola-
tility spiked in the first quarter
this year however, with the VIX
touching 37 on February during
an ~1100pt correction of the
DJIA. Beyond February, volatility
has spiked on several other occa-
sions this year.
The S&P 500, our benchmark, is currently down 0.96% so far this year amidst great volatility.
Our fund has appreciated 4.57% so far this year, 5.53% above the S&P. This is partially due to
our overweight stances in energy and in international names.
The fund currently possesses a ~12% allocation in the energy sector, or ~6% overweight ver-
sus the S&P 500. This includes allocations in China Petroleum & Chemical (HK:386, NYSE:SNP),
Statoil (OSLO:STL, NYSE:STO) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A). It is our view that $26 per
barrel WTI crude in 2016 was a major bottom. As WTI retraced into the low $50 range per
barrel in mid 2017, we moved quickly to increase our energy exposure, purchasing two of our
current energy names back-to-back (STO & SNP). Crude oil markets have tightened signifi-
cantly since mid 2017, as producers remain under OPEC/Non-OPEC production limits, global
demand is significant, and geopolitical risk remains pronounced. This produced major tail-
winds for our energy names, and our overweight position has thus allowed us to reduce our
attachment to some volatility in the broader market. SNP, STO and RDS.A have produced
33.5%, 31.5% and 33% returns respectively so far. Roughly 80% of these overall returns repre-
sent alpha.
Although hydrocarbon demand will peak at some point in the long term, our crude oil view
over the next 12 months remains bullish.
Since purchasing our first ADR in 2016, another important goal for us has been diversifying
our equity holdings internationally. International equities increase overall portfolio risk due to
higher standard deviation of returns, but also provide better opportunities for returns and
thus alpha in some market conditions on a risk-adjusted basis.
2. Beyond our excellent international picks in energy, we have uncovered alpha in other sectors internationally
including tech (Alibaba HK:1688, NYSE:BABA), and in industrials (Canadian Pacific TSX:CP, NYSE:CP). To place
our progress into perspective, two years ago, SMIF had virtually no international exposure.
We continue to strive to find the best sectors, industries and names internationally based on local economic,
demographic and political trends. Investing in international markets remains a key component of the fund’s
strategy to build portfolio alpha.
Reducing Portfolio Volatility through Lower Beta and Non-Correlated Investments | Michael “Roma”
Since the fund’s inception we have been underweight in the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors. The
portfolio has benefitted significantly from overweight allocations in the best performing sectors such as Tech-
nology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary, as well as the timely addition of Energy exposure throughout
2017. However, much has changed since we first received capital in Spring 2015. An unexpected election out-
come, Fed tightening, WTI Crude falling from near all time highs to below $30 a barrel and then doubling head-
ing into 2018. All the while we have experienced a secular rally in equities. However, as we rolled over from
January into February, we experienced a change to the status quo. Despite no change to the fundamentals, the
S&P 500 corrected down as much as –10.16%, and the VIX spiked to three year highs, with many investors who
were short gamma getting hurt. This caused us to revaluate our portfolio’s construction, and our overweight
exposure to high-beta sectors.
Consumer Staples has been a tough space to produce alpha for portfolio managers. The sector, as well as
household names such as Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola, and Kraft Heinz have underperformed the S&P 500.
Provided the rising uncertainty surrounding equities, features of these investments such as relatively stable
dividends, and low beta may begin to draw investors to these Buffett favorites. This is why our Fund was drawn
to allocate to the space, however, we still sought to deliver alpha to the portfolio; the solution, the avocado.
We identified that the avocado has become everyone’s favorite superfood, that NAFTA will likely benefit U.S.
growers, and lastly that its shares would be stable. Then we found the name, Calavo Growers (NASDAQ:
CVGW) which has been growing the avocado since 1924, yet Calavo has outpaced Amazon in share-price
growth since 2001. With a beta of only .68, and forecasted upside of 20% over the next 12-18 months, we are
bullish on Calavo’s ability to deliver alpha if the “Goldilocks” period continues or even if we experience a draw-
down in equities.
Utilities have likewise been an underperforming sector which our portfolio has been underweight. Provided
changing market conditions, these bond proxies have begun to look a bit more attractive. Compared to their
Telecom peers, there is less uncertainty and industry shake-up given headlines such as the ongoing AT&T-Time
Warner Trial, and recent announcement that T-Mobile and Sprint have agreed to merge. Utilities, whose rates
are set by the state and local governments, also may be buoyed by changing conditions. Although the regula-
tors will keep the rates they charge customers in check, utility companies will likely be boosted by a gradually
growing customer base. With the job market improving, more millennials are leaving their parents’ home and
buying those of their own. This trend can be witnessed through rising existing home sales and prices which
were up 1% last month, and 6.3% in 2017. The U.S. housing supply is the tightest it’s been in decades, with
some of the toughest conditions being found in Florida with key markets like Orlando, Lakeland-Winter Haven,
and Melbourne experiencing 7% year over year price appreciation versus the national average of 5.7% as re-
ported by Barron’s. Expansion in Florida will benefit shares of NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE), a Florida utility
company with a renewables-centric blend and significant market share in power equipment manufacturing.
The SMIF voted to open a position in NEE with a 4% allocation.
May 1st, 2018
Portfolio Report