- Technology is integrating global commerce and connecting people in unprecedented ways, with cross-border bandwidth increasing nearly 50-fold from 2005-2014.
- Technological innovations like e-commerce and artificial intelligence are fueling globalization and benefiting investors through higher GDP, employment, and corporate revenues/profits.
- While political tensions could challenge globalization in the near-term, technology is deeply entrenched in global business and will continue binding the global economy together long-term, acting as an "X factor" supporting the trend toward greater integration.
Ep. #21: December 2019 - Da Real Estate Braddahs LIVELane Kawaoka, PE
The document provides information about the IRS cracking down on abusive syndicated conservation easements. The IRS is conducting coordinated examinations and investigations involving billions of dollars of potentially inflated deductions. They are investigating various parties involved in marketing these abusive easements. The IRS reminds taxpayers that certain syndicated conservation easements are listed transactions subject to penalties, and that taxpayers should amend returns to remove improper contributions.
December 2019 - Monthly Real Estate Investing NewsLane Kawaoka, PE
This document contains a summary of various real estate and economic news articles from November 2019. Key points include:
- Apple committed $2.5 billion toward addressing California's housing crisis. Other tech companies like Facebook and Google made similar large commitments.
- Nationwide, multifamily rents increased 3.2% year-over-year in 2019. Vacancy rates declined to 5.8% as demand continues to outpace new supply.
- Investors are increasingly looking to secondary and tertiary markets for properties, and are willing to invest in older Class B assets that can be renovated for yields compared to major cities.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2020 | Low Rates and Tighter NIMs Spur ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q2 2021 | Segment: Explorati...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Canadian ma insights report winter 2018Duff & Phelps
Canadian M&A activity remained strong in 2017, with 1,558 companies sold, a 3.9% increase over 2016. The total value of deals was $88 billion, up 9.1% from 2016. While the number of large deals (over $500 million) decreased, their average size increased to $3.2 billion compared to $2.4 billion in 2016. 71.6% of deals involved a Canadian buyer or seller. Looking ahead, continued economic growth in Canada and the US along with low financing costs are expected to support further M&A activity, though US tax reform and NAFTA negotiations may create some uncertainty.
The document provides an overview of recent developments in financial markets and the global economy. It discusses how bond markets have wobbled recently, and how extended periods of low interest rates have caused private sector leverage and asset prices to rise. It also covers topics like weakening conditions in the junk bond market, rising US interest rates, strength in the US economy, volatility in China's bond market, Saudi Arabia's anti-corruption probe, and uncertainty around Brexit negotiations.
The US housing market is healthier now than during the Great Recession, however COVID-19 is negatively impacting sales. Pending home sales declined 40% YoY in mid-April due to fewer listings and showings. Unemployment could increase mortgage defaults if it remains high. Home prices are at record highs but historically low mortgage rates have improved affordability. Demand from millennial first-time buyers may sustain the market but supply constraints exist in some areas.
Ep. #21: December 2019 - Da Real Estate Braddahs LIVELane Kawaoka, PE
The document provides information about the IRS cracking down on abusive syndicated conservation easements. The IRS is conducting coordinated examinations and investigations involving billions of dollars of potentially inflated deductions. They are investigating various parties involved in marketing these abusive easements. The IRS reminds taxpayers that certain syndicated conservation easements are listed transactions subject to penalties, and that taxpayers should amend returns to remove improper contributions.
December 2019 - Monthly Real Estate Investing NewsLane Kawaoka, PE
This document contains a summary of various real estate and economic news articles from November 2019. Key points include:
- Apple committed $2.5 billion toward addressing California's housing crisis. Other tech companies like Facebook and Google made similar large commitments.
- Nationwide, multifamily rents increased 3.2% year-over-year in 2019. Vacancy rates declined to 5.8% as demand continues to outpace new supply.
- Investors are increasingly looking to secondary and tertiary markets for properties, and are willing to invest in older Class B assets that can be renovated for yields compared to major cities.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2020 | Low Rates and Tighter NIMs Spur ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q2 2021 | Segment: Explorati...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Canadian ma insights report winter 2018Duff & Phelps
Canadian M&A activity remained strong in 2017, with 1,558 companies sold, a 3.9% increase over 2016. The total value of deals was $88 billion, up 9.1% from 2016. While the number of large deals (over $500 million) decreased, their average size increased to $3.2 billion compared to $2.4 billion in 2016. 71.6% of deals involved a Canadian buyer or seller. Looking ahead, continued economic growth in Canada and the US along with low financing costs are expected to support further M&A activity, though US tax reform and NAFTA negotiations may create some uncertainty.
The document provides an overview of recent developments in financial markets and the global economy. It discusses how bond markets have wobbled recently, and how extended periods of low interest rates have caused private sector leverage and asset prices to rise. It also covers topics like weakening conditions in the junk bond market, rising US interest rates, strength in the US economy, volatility in China's bond market, Saudi Arabia's anti-corruption probe, and uncertainty around Brexit negotiations.
The US housing market is healthier now than during the Great Recession, however COVID-19 is negatively impacting sales. Pending home sales declined 40% YoY in mid-April due to fewer listings and showings. Unemployment could increase mortgage defaults if it remains high. Home prices are at record highs but historically low mortgage rates have improved affordability. Demand from millennial first-time buyers may sustain the market but supply constraints exist in some areas.
Office investment sales volume in the Washington D.C. area increased 36% in 2014 compared to 2013, with core assets trading at higher valuations due to low interest rates and available capital. Capitalization rates for core assets declined nearly 50 basis points from 2013 to 2014. While the leasing market remains weak with high vacancies, the capital market continues to outperform due to investment security from the large government presence. As the market transitions away from government dependence, more secondary and tertiary assets may come to market if leasing conditions do not improve. Class B assets in transit-oriented locations present opportunities for higher returns compared to core assets.
The document provides an overview and analysis of capital markets activity in the summer of 2017. Some key points:
- Middle-market loan and debt issuance was robust, helped by strong M&A activity and refinancing. Leverage multiples increased.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but longer-term bond yields declined, reflecting moderating growth expectations.
- Corporate borrowing and profits remained strong despite political uncertainty. Near-term conditions remained favorable for middle-market issuers seeking financing.
On May 7, 2020, Neiman Marcus, an iconic luxury retailer, announced in its bankruptcy filing plans to reorganize under Chapter 11 with the backing of most creditors. In this presentation, we discuss the bankruptcy process and the importance of valuation in bankruptcy proceedings.
The document discusses how national debt increases when interest rates rise. When interest rates increase, bondholders earn higher returns which increases their wealth and demand across markets. This causes asset prices like stocks and bonds to rise. Countries then must pay higher yields on their bonds, which increases their debt levels. The document argues that countries need new ways to generate wealth as interest rates rise, such as monetizing private sector assets and equity, to balance this effect and maintain their ability to pay bondholders. This would involve assigning value to manufacturing and intellectual assets and exchanging them for new bonds.
The 2015 outlook for commercial real estate and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is positive but returns are expected to moderate. Growth will depend more on increases in net operating income rather than declining cap rates. Occupancy rates are projected to remain stable or improve across major property types except multifamily and lodging, which may have peaked. Construction pipelines are growing in some markets, which could impact vacancy levels. Demand trends vary across major and non-major markets. The industrial sector remains resilient due to e-commerce and manufacturing.
TRREB reported 4,581 home sales in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019 and up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.
“Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said TRREB President Michael Collins.
The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached houses & condominium apartments.
U.S. Housing Market Overview, September 2021Nima Wedlake
Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market, including mortgage origination volume, housing supply, credit availability and real estate pricing trends.
Residential Real Estate market update covering the Macro Economy and its influence on local real estate markets. Designed to assist investors to make informed decision, and move forward with confidence.
This report summarizes the residential real estate market in Northern California from July to December 2012. It finds that the market is poised for large price increases due to two artificially created forces: historically low interest rates around 3.5% and historically low inventory around 3 weeks of homes for sale. This combination of low rates and supply is driving prices higher rapidly. The recovery is also supported by investors purchasing properties, a decline in foreclosures putting homes on the market, and government programs refinancing underwater homeowners, all reducing inventory levels. The market is shifting from a buyer's to a seller's market with many over-asking-price offers on each home.
Strong fundamentals drive US dealmaking despite macro-economic and political uncertainties. First-half activity remains on a par with 2016 as strong fundamentals continue to drive M&A.
Though US M&A faced challenges in H1 2017, the figures show that the market is active and vibrant. There were 2,413 deals worth US$588.5 billion recorded in H1 2017, up 0.5 percent by value compared to US$585.4 billion registered in H1 2016. If activity continues at its current level, US dealmaking is on track for another strong year.
Corporate funding reached near-record levels in 2015 despite volatility in financial markets. The largest source of funding was investment grade loans which increased 6% to $1.65 trillion, driven by mergers and acquisitions. Short-term bridge financing made up 38% of the top 20 investment grade deals. While investment grade lending increased, other markets like leveraged loans declined due to deteriorating oil and commodity sectors. Overall, companies had more options for raising funds in 2015 than ever before.
Taiwan: Cross-border opportunities amid global changeWhite & Case
Disruptive forces continue to shape global markets, and Taiwanese businesses can take advantage of opportunities emerging amid these transformative trends.
Credit Shift As Global Corporate Borrowers Seek 60 Trillion APAC will ov...Jayan Dhru
- The document discusses projections that Asia-Pacific corporate debt will overtake the combined debt of the US and Europe by 2016, increasing global credit risk due to generally lower credit quality in Asia-Pacific.
- China in particular has become the largest debt market globally, with its corporate debt projected to reach $20-23 trillion by 2018 and account for about 30-38% more debt than US corporations.
- Analysis shows that while Chinese corporate credit quality was better than global peers in 2009, their cash flows and leverage have deteriorated since, indicating increased credit risk in China.
The document summarizes commercial real estate market conditions in Northern Nevada during the third quarter of 2008. It states that declining lending has negatively impacted business activity and the real estate market. Vacancy rates increased across office, retail, and industrial sectors, putting downward pressure on rents. Property sales occurred but with higher capitalization rates. The regional economy also weakened with rising unemployment.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | July 2019 | Bank M&A Mid-Year UpdateMercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
It's a sellers' market at the beginning of 2017. Bridgepoint Merchant Banking releases the latest Midwest M&A Index, measuring corporate mergers & acquisition activity in the region. Insight is provided on the current market status and statistics on selected Midwest transactions.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
- The housing market continues its gradual recovery without government assistance like tax credits, while interest rates hit new lows but have started rising as the economy improves. Consumer confidence and retail sales are up substantially from last year.
- Home sales dipped slightly in October but pending sales rose over 10%, signaling stronger future sales. Inventory fell as prices stabilized near 1% changes. Affordability remains near record highs.
- The government extended conforming loan limits in expensive markets to provide continued support through 2011 as the market strengthens without as much assistance. Overall the document discusses positive economic and housing market trends.
This special supplement includes insight from leading economists and market observers about the future of home sales, what higher rates mean for affordability and what regulatory changes at the U.S. housing agencies will do to long-term fixed rate mortgages. Inside you will also find unique data on commercial mortgage issuance, CMBS loan leverage, mortgage delinquencies and commercial property cap rates, as well as insight into real estate development in Manhattan.
The U.S. Tech sector’s new record high has brought back memories of the dot-com bubble. But unlike then,
today’s Tech sector is not propped up by fanciful talk. It’s led by companies that are truly transforming the
economy and our lives.
The document discusses Q3 2017 earnings results for the S&P 500 index. While overall earnings growth was 5.3% year-over-year, excluding losses from property and casualty insurers due to hurricanes, earnings growth was a stronger 8.1%. Earnings are expected to continue supporting the bull market, with growth projected in the high single digits for 2018. The market is positioned for continued earnings growth given the strong US economy and synchronized global expansions.
US stocks continued to rally strongly as 2017 drew to a close. Global stock markets joined the rally that began after the 2016 US presidential election. Economic data strengthened and implied volatility declined. Growth was supported by cheaper energy and increasing global synchronization, though major challenges remained. World trade growth picked up but remained below historical levels. Tax reform progress created market optimism but actual growth and improved living standards will need to be evident in 2018.
Office investment sales volume in the Washington D.C. area increased 36% in 2014 compared to 2013, with core assets trading at higher valuations due to low interest rates and available capital. Capitalization rates for core assets declined nearly 50 basis points from 2013 to 2014. While the leasing market remains weak with high vacancies, the capital market continues to outperform due to investment security from the large government presence. As the market transitions away from government dependence, more secondary and tertiary assets may come to market if leasing conditions do not improve. Class B assets in transit-oriented locations present opportunities for higher returns compared to core assets.
The document provides an overview and analysis of capital markets activity in the summer of 2017. Some key points:
- Middle-market loan and debt issuance was robust, helped by strong M&A activity and refinancing. Leverage multiples increased.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but longer-term bond yields declined, reflecting moderating growth expectations.
- Corporate borrowing and profits remained strong despite political uncertainty. Near-term conditions remained favorable for middle-market issuers seeking financing.
On May 7, 2020, Neiman Marcus, an iconic luxury retailer, announced in its bankruptcy filing plans to reorganize under Chapter 11 with the backing of most creditors. In this presentation, we discuss the bankruptcy process and the importance of valuation in bankruptcy proceedings.
The document discusses how national debt increases when interest rates rise. When interest rates increase, bondholders earn higher returns which increases their wealth and demand across markets. This causes asset prices like stocks and bonds to rise. Countries then must pay higher yields on their bonds, which increases their debt levels. The document argues that countries need new ways to generate wealth as interest rates rise, such as monetizing private sector assets and equity, to balance this effect and maintain their ability to pay bondholders. This would involve assigning value to manufacturing and intellectual assets and exchanging them for new bonds.
The 2015 outlook for commercial real estate and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is positive but returns are expected to moderate. Growth will depend more on increases in net operating income rather than declining cap rates. Occupancy rates are projected to remain stable or improve across major property types except multifamily and lodging, which may have peaked. Construction pipelines are growing in some markets, which could impact vacancy levels. Demand trends vary across major and non-major markets. The industrial sector remains resilient due to e-commerce and manufacturing.
TRREB reported 4,581 home sales in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019 and up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.
“Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said TRREB President Michael Collins.
The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached houses & condominium apartments.
U.S. Housing Market Overview, September 2021Nima Wedlake
Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market, including mortgage origination volume, housing supply, credit availability and real estate pricing trends.
Residential Real Estate market update covering the Macro Economy and its influence on local real estate markets. Designed to assist investors to make informed decision, and move forward with confidence.
This report summarizes the residential real estate market in Northern California from July to December 2012. It finds that the market is poised for large price increases due to two artificially created forces: historically low interest rates around 3.5% and historically low inventory around 3 weeks of homes for sale. This combination of low rates and supply is driving prices higher rapidly. The recovery is also supported by investors purchasing properties, a decline in foreclosures putting homes on the market, and government programs refinancing underwater homeowners, all reducing inventory levels. The market is shifting from a buyer's to a seller's market with many over-asking-price offers on each home.
Strong fundamentals drive US dealmaking despite macro-economic and political uncertainties. First-half activity remains on a par with 2016 as strong fundamentals continue to drive M&A.
Though US M&A faced challenges in H1 2017, the figures show that the market is active and vibrant. There were 2,413 deals worth US$588.5 billion recorded in H1 2017, up 0.5 percent by value compared to US$585.4 billion registered in H1 2016. If activity continues at its current level, US dealmaking is on track for another strong year.
Corporate funding reached near-record levels in 2015 despite volatility in financial markets. The largest source of funding was investment grade loans which increased 6% to $1.65 trillion, driven by mergers and acquisitions. Short-term bridge financing made up 38% of the top 20 investment grade deals. While investment grade lending increased, other markets like leveraged loans declined due to deteriorating oil and commodity sectors. Overall, companies had more options for raising funds in 2015 than ever before.
Taiwan: Cross-border opportunities amid global changeWhite & Case
Disruptive forces continue to shape global markets, and Taiwanese businesses can take advantage of opportunities emerging amid these transformative trends.
Credit Shift As Global Corporate Borrowers Seek 60 Trillion APAC will ov...Jayan Dhru
- The document discusses projections that Asia-Pacific corporate debt will overtake the combined debt of the US and Europe by 2016, increasing global credit risk due to generally lower credit quality in Asia-Pacific.
- China in particular has become the largest debt market globally, with its corporate debt projected to reach $20-23 trillion by 2018 and account for about 30-38% more debt than US corporations.
- Analysis shows that while Chinese corporate credit quality was better than global peers in 2009, their cash flows and leverage have deteriorated since, indicating increased credit risk in China.
The document summarizes commercial real estate market conditions in Northern Nevada during the third quarter of 2008. It states that declining lending has negatively impacted business activity and the real estate market. Vacancy rates increased across office, retail, and industrial sectors, putting downward pressure on rents. Property sales occurred but with higher capitalization rates. The regional economy also weakened with rising unemployment.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | July 2019 | Bank M&A Mid-Year UpdateMercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
It's a sellers' market at the beginning of 2017. Bridgepoint Merchant Banking releases the latest Midwest M&A Index, measuring corporate mergers & acquisition activity in the region. Insight is provided on the current market status and statistics on selected Midwest transactions.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
- The housing market continues its gradual recovery without government assistance like tax credits, while interest rates hit new lows but have started rising as the economy improves. Consumer confidence and retail sales are up substantially from last year.
- Home sales dipped slightly in October but pending sales rose over 10%, signaling stronger future sales. Inventory fell as prices stabilized near 1% changes. Affordability remains near record highs.
- The government extended conforming loan limits in expensive markets to provide continued support through 2011 as the market strengthens without as much assistance. Overall the document discusses positive economic and housing market trends.
This special supplement includes insight from leading economists and market observers about the future of home sales, what higher rates mean for affordability and what regulatory changes at the U.S. housing agencies will do to long-term fixed rate mortgages. Inside you will also find unique data on commercial mortgage issuance, CMBS loan leverage, mortgage delinquencies and commercial property cap rates, as well as insight into real estate development in Manhattan.
The U.S. Tech sector’s new record high has brought back memories of the dot-com bubble. But unlike then,
today’s Tech sector is not propped up by fanciful talk. It’s led by companies that are truly transforming the
economy and our lives.
The document discusses Q3 2017 earnings results for the S&P 500 index. While overall earnings growth was 5.3% year-over-year, excluding losses from property and casualty insurers due to hurricanes, earnings growth was a stronger 8.1%. Earnings are expected to continue supporting the bull market, with growth projected in the high single digits for 2018. The market is positioned for continued earnings growth given the strong US economy and synchronized global expansions.
US stocks continued to rally strongly as 2017 drew to a close. Global stock markets joined the rally that began after the 2016 US presidential election. Economic data strengthened and implied volatility declined. Growth was supported by cheaper energy and increasing global synchronization, though major challenges remained. World trade growth picked up but remained below historical levels. Tax reform progress created market optimism but actual growth and improved living standards will need to be evident in 2018.
The National Multifamily Index ranks major U.S. markets based on projected vacancy rates, rent growth, and employment gains. San Francisco and San Jose rank at the top due to strong job growth, low vacancy, and high rents. Markets in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast also rank highly. Atlanta and Riverside-San Bernardino moved into the top 20 due to improving economies and property performance. Midwest markets rank in the lower third despite favorable demand drivers. Supply growth will challenge some markets like Houston and Tampa.
Global Insight-Wake Me Up When September BeginsDavid Apted
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in global fixed income markets from an investment perspective. It discusses:
1) Low volatility in US Treasury markets with yields holding in a tight range, and the rise in negative-yielding global debt nearing $9 trillion, weighing on Treasuries.
2) Upcoming central bank meetings at Jackson Hole, the ECB, and Fed which may provide opportunities for investors if they cause yields to move.
3) The document recommends a focus on quality corporate bonds in the 5-7 year part of the yield curve for European investors.
Capital Markets Insights – Late Fall 2018Duff & Phelps
What’s been an increase in growth and acquisition-related financings and recapitalization transactions? Read the fall edition of Duff&Phelps’ Capital Markets Insights.
The S&P 500 finished 2018 in negative territory for the first time since 2008, down -4.6% for the year. Volatility increased significantly across global markets as economic growth moderated and trade tensions rose. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 130% in 2018 compared to 78% in 2008, indicating a more turbulent decline. Investor unease over trade and monetary policy contributed to the rise in volatility, exemplified by an 8% market fall following the Federal Reserve's signal of slightly more aggressive rate hikes than expected in 2019.
This document provides three potential scenarios for the performance of the U.S. stock market in 2017: an RBC forecast, a pessimistic scenario, and an optimistic scenario. The RBC forecast, with a 60% likelihood, is for low double-digit returns in 2017 and 2018 driven by improved earnings and economic growth. A pessimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, involves weaker growth and risks like trade tensions. An optimistic scenario, with a 20% likelihood, depends on pro-growth legislation passing in Washington.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
Higher growth, higher risk, slightly higher returns
We expect a lack of investment opportunities to remain an enduring challenge for
investors in 2017. We think this despite the fact that economic growth will likely pick
up in 2017 vs the somewhat disappointing performance in 2016. Indeed, over the
past several months, the growth rate of global GDP already appears to be realizing at
the top of the 3%-3½% range that has prevailed throughout the past five years. The
main reason is the swing in the financial conditions impulse from sharply negative to
modestly positive, both in the US and in parts of the emerging world. And the fiscal
stimulus that will likely be enacted by the new Trump administration, and in other
advanced economies, will only reinforce the inflation pressures already in place. With
output and employment already close to potential, the rising inflation pressure
strengthens our conviction that the Federal Reserve will likely raise the funds rate in
December and again three more times during 2017 (“A catalyst for tighter Fed
policy“, Global Economics Analyst, 16 Nov 2016).
Stronger cyclical growth in the US will probably not do much for asset markets
except help shift the narrative from ‘low-flation’ and monetary accommodation to
reflation and rising rates. But this will not change the fact that the trend growth rate
of GDP appears to have fallen for both advanced and emerging economies during
the post-crisis period. Meanwhile, valuation levels for equities and especially bonds
remain highly elevated by historical standards, so expected returns appear to be low
across most asset classes. In fixed income, yield is scarce, and in equities, growth is
scarce. So investors have been pushed into less familiar strategies, such as equity
investors reaching for yield in high-dividend, low-vol stocks, or bond investors lining
up to own the growth risk inherent in the long-duration bonds of tech companies.
Deloitte India: The beginning of new M&A sessionaakash malhotra
The document discusses trends in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity. Some of the key points include:
- Global M&A deal value reached $3.1 trillion in 2018, though the number of megadeals declined. Divestments reached $472 billion, one of the highest levels since 2007.
- Factors like large corporate cash reserves, increased private equity activity, and US tax reform are fueling more M&A deals in 2018. Disruptive technologies are also prompting acquisitions across sectors.
- However, increasing economic uncertainties, trade tensions, and regulatory complexity may challenge the sustainability of high dealmaking. Careful target selection and execution will be important for
Will it be a good or bad year for stocksAlpesh Patel
Analysis: Will It Be a Good or Bad Year for Stocks?
What to expect in 2022?
The Fed, Inflation, and Stimulus Packages
Are Quants Back?
Will Semiconductors Go Big?
How the Rising Dollar Will Affect Equities?
The document provides an analysis of preferred shares and their strong performance in 2017 despite rising interest rates. Some key points:
- Preferred shares are up between 7.8-9.7% year-to-date, outperforming other fixed income assets. Variable-rate preferreds have led gains due to demand for their fixed coupons.
- Investors remain hungry for yield as Treasury and credit yields remain low. This has driven some to move down the capital structure into preferred shares for higher yields.
- While preferred shares have rallied, the total return outlook may now be more limited. The analysis recommends investors review preferred stock allocations and holdings to ensure diversification and manage risks.
The document summarizes the Q3 update to the 2015 investment outlook from Segal Rogerscasey Canada. It discusses the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates given mixed signals in the US economy. China's economic slowdown is negatively impacting other Asian and commodity-producing economies. The European economy continues slow growth despite quantitative easing efforts. Overall, the global economic environment remains uncertain.
This report details performance, investment themes, and position changes to the Seton Hall University Student Managed Investment Fund Portfolio thru May 2018.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
C
A
SP
A
R
B
EN
SO
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/G
ET
TY
IM
A
G
ES
STRATEGY
IN THE AGE OF
SUPERABUNDANT
CAPITAL
MONEY IS NO LONGER A SCARCE RESOURCE.
THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING.
BY MICHAEL MANKINS, KAREN HARRIS,
AND DAVID HARDING
66 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH–APRIL 2017
most of the past 50 years, business leaders viewed fi-
nancial capital as their most precious resource. They
worked hard to ensure that every penny went to fund-
ing only the most promising projects. A generation
of executives was taught to apply hurdle rates that
reflected the high capital costs prevalent for most
of the 1980s and 1990s. And companies like General
Electric and Berkshire Hathaway were lauded for the
discipline with which they invested.
Today financial capital is no longer a scarce
resource—it is abundant and cheap. Bain’s Macro
Trends Group estimates that global financial capital
has more than tripled over the past three decades and
now stands at roughly 10 times global GDP. As capital
has grown more plentiful, its price has plummeted.
For many large companies, the after-tax cost of bor-
rowing is close to the rate of inflation, meaning that
real borrowing costs hover near zero. Any reasonably
profitable large enterprise can readily obtain the capi-
tal it needs to buy new equipment, fund new product
development, enter new markets, and even acquire
new businesses. To be sure, leadership teams still need
to manage their money carefully—after all, waste is
waste. But the skillful allocation of financial capital is
no longer a source of sustained competitive advantage.
The assets that are in short supply at most compa-
nies are the skills and capabilities required to translate
good growth ideas into successful new products, ser-
vices, and businesses—and the traditional financially
driven approach to strategic investment has only com-
pounded this paucity. Indeed, the standard method
for prioritizing strategic investments strives to limit
the field of potential projects and encourages compa-
nies to invest in a few “sure bets” that clear high hur-
dle rates. At a time when most companies are desper-
ate for growth, this approach unnecessarily forecloses
too many options. And it encourages executives to
remain committed to investments long after it’s clear
that they’re not paying off. Finally, it leaves companies
with piles of cash for which executives often find no
better use than to buy back stock.
Strategy in the new age of capital superabundance
demands a fundamentally different approach from the
traditional models anchored in long-term planning
and continual improvement. Companies must lower
hurdle rates and relax the other constraints that reflect
a bygone era of scarce capital. They should move away
from making a few big bets over the course of many
years and start making numerous small and varied
investments, knowing that not all will pan out. They
must learn to quickly spot—and get out of—losing
ventures, while ag ...
Tax Reform: Time for Rubber to meet the road!David Apted
The passage discusses the potential impacts of the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It suggests that the tax cuts could significantly boost US corporate earnings and economic growth. Specifically, it predicts earnings for the S&P 500 index may increase 13-18% in 2018 due to the lower corporate tax rate of 21%. This would push the index's price-to-earnings ratio to a more reasonable level. Industries with large domestic revenues like retail, telecom, and utilities may benefit the most. The tax cuts could also push GDP growth above 3% over the next few years and further delay recession risks.
The document summarizes key points from a weekly report by RBC Wealth Management on global economic and market developments:
1) Major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoE all met this week, with the Fed hiking rates as expected but the ECB and BoE leaving policy unchanged; the Fed projected slightly lower inflation but higher growth and lower unemployment for 2018.
2) Small business optimism in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1983 on expectations of tax reform and stronger economic conditions, though plans to raise wages remained muted; strong retail sales in November also point to robust Q4 economic growth.
3) Central banks are still seen as facing downside risks that could keep
The document discusses the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and what it may signify. It notes that the yield curve, measured as the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has flattened to just 66 basis points, the flattest seen during an economic expansion since 2005. While a flattening curve has often preceded recessions, the economy currently shows few signs of overheating. The flattening is driven by the Federal Reserve raising short-term rates gradually through its tightening cycle, while long-term rates remain stable due to subdued inflation expectations and a negative term premium. The flat yield curve warrants monitoring but does not necessarily signal an imminent economic downturn.
The document discusses the Catalan independence referendum in Spain and its implications. It makes the following key points:
1) While the referendum has increased short-term political volatility in Europe, the author maintains a bullish outlook on European equities as the situation does not pose an existential risk to the region.
2) The referendum results showed 90% support for independence but on a low 42% turnout, as those opposed largely boycotted it. However, the Spanish government deems the vote illegal.
3) The Spanish government's crackdown in response to the referendum has angered international observers and could increase momentum for the independence movement.
The summary captures the high level context around the Catalan
1) The Chinese government is accelerating reforms of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under President Xi Jinping's leadership as he enters his second term.
2) SOE reform is critical because SOEs account for a large portion of China's corporate debt and are generally less efficient than private companies.
3) Recent examples of SOE reforms include mergers to reduce excess capacity and competition, as well as introducing private capital through mixed ownership. However, fully reforming China's large SOEs will be an ongoing challenge.
This document discusses whether premiums paid for long-term care insurance (LTCI) can be deducted from taxes. It states that LTCI premiums may be deductible as a medical expense if the policy is qualified, total medical expenses exceed 10% of adjusted gross income, and premiums are within limits based on the policyholder's age. It provides the age and premium limits for qualified LTCI deductions in 2017.
1) U.S. bank stocks have rallied strongly in recent weeks and months, outperforming the broader market. The document discusses factors that may continue supporting gains in bank stocks, such as higher interest rates and an improving regulatory environment.
2) While further gains are expected, the document notes that bank stock performance may see some volatility, especially after such robust recent performance. Additional gains will depend on factors like rising Treasury yields and economic growth.
3) The document analyzes bank stock valuations, which remain attractive relative to historical levels. Improving profitability is expected to push valuations higher over the long term.
- The head of European equity at RBC Global Asset Management believes European stocks are appealing investments due to their long tradition of dividend payments dating back to the 1600s, high-quality businesses with centuries-old franchises, and focus on high-return characteristics.
- Many European companies have global reach and exposure to growing international markets, which is appealing given the current period of synchronized global economic growth.
- The manager looks for companies with wide moats and high returns on equity that can deliver strong long-term returns for investors, even though some still trade at a discount to U.S. peers.
The document discusses the need for investors to assess the quality of their portfolios as monetary policy shifts away from stimulus. Major central banks are approaching a long transition period where government bond yields will gradually rise. Portfolios that took on more risk in the search for yield may need upgrades, as credit spreads tighten and corporate debt levels increase the risk of losses. Now is a good time to lock in gains from recent strength in credit markets and improve portfolio quality and liquidity.
1) The author upgrades European equities to Overweight due to improved political and economic conditions in Europe. Political risk has receded following centrist election victories in France and improving economic data across major European countries.
2) Earnings growth in Europe has surprised to the upside, with revenues and earnings growing around 9% and 20% respectively in the recent reporting season, well above comparable US growth. However, European stock valuations remain attractive relative to US stocks.
3) Key factors that could further improve the European investment case include ongoing economic improvements, ECB maintaining accommodative monetary policy, and stability in bond markets and inflation. Political risks remain from the Italian elections.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
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OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
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STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
The "X" Factor
1. Click here for authors’ contact information.
Priced (in USD) as of 10/19/17 market close, EST (unless otherwise stated).
For important disclosures and required non-U.S. analyst disclosures, see page 7.
With tensions flaring up at the NAFTA renegotiations during
the week, globalization and long-standing trade practices are
once again on the defensive. The fate of North America’s nearly
24-year-old trade framework remains uncertain even though
negotiators pushed the deadline beyond the initial year-end
target.
RBC Global Asset Management’s chief economist believes
there is a 40% likelihood NAFTA could be terminated—
a non-trivial risk. If that plays out, previous trade agreements
and/or WTO rules could come into force, and there would
likely be considerable legal challenges. If NAFTA is “torn up,”
so to speak, it could slice roughly 0.8 percentage points from
Canada’s annual GDP growth and 0.4 points from U.S. growth,
the chief economist estimates. For example, instead of annual
U.S. GDP growth of 2.0%, it could be 1.6%.
Regardless of NAFTA’s path, we think globalization,
trade ties, and shared interests across borders are much
more entrenched than critics of multilateral trade deals
acknowledge, as we pointed out in our recent commentary.
Additionally, technology is one pillar of globalization and
trade that is often overlooked. It just may be the “X factor” that
will hold things together at a time when relations are fraying
around the edges.
No turning back
Technology is integrating commerce and peoples like never
before. The industry’s innovations are transforming how we
do business and conduct our personal lives. They have no
boundaries or borders, and they continue to shrink the globe.
The “X factor”
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
October 19, 2017
A closer look
With NAFTA’s future insecure, the multi-decade trend toward greater global integration may seem at risk.
But we think sweeping technological innovations just may be the “X factor” that holds things together, to
the benefit of investors.
R B C W E A L T H M A N A G E M E N T
Global InsightW e e k l y
Source - TeleGeography, McKinsey Global Institute analysis; February 2016
report
Cross-border bandwidth multiplied almost 50-fold
Total used cross-border bandwidth in thousands of gigabits per second
4.7 6.7 11.1
18.8
30.1
46.2
69.5
100.8
146.7
211.3
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Intraregional bandwidth
Interregional bandwidth
3 Finding value in Canadian preferred shares
4 U.S. corporate earnings off to a slow start
5 U.K./EU discussions appear stalled
5 19th National Congress commences in Beijing
Market pulse
2. 2 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Take just one example: the use of cross-border bandwidth
multiplied almost 50-fold from 2005 to 2014. It has never been
easier for companies—large or small—to buy components,
sell products or services, build factories, and serve customers
thousands of miles and an ocean away.
Tech has permeated global business to such a degree that
nearly all cross-border transactions have a digital component.
Roughly 12% of global goods transactions are conducted via
international e-commerce, according to McKinsey Global
Institute.
In the last 10 years, all types of cross-border flows raised
worldwide GDP by an additional 10.1%, McKinsey estimates.
Technology’s linkages to trade provide employment
opportunities, cheaper goods, higher revenue and earnings
for multinational companies, and by extension, higher stock
prices. As we see it, tech innovations help create a bigger
economic pie and benefit investors.
Not standing still
Tech is also democratizing globalization and trade for
millions, if not billions, of people.
At this point, most of the world’s population, regardless
of income or social status, now interacts in the global
marketplace. This is largely due to the tech infrastructure
buildout of the 1990s, the far reach of mobile technologies,
and warp-speed digital innovations of the past 5-10 years.
Progress isn’t standing still. Technologies of tomorrow are
already here. Robotics, automation, machine learning,
and augmented reality could usher in new industrial and
information revolutions. As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes
multiple industries, AI revenues could more than quadruple
by 2020 and surge almost 25-fold by 2025 (see upper chart).
In addition to those state-of-the-art technologies, consider
a less complex, yet ground-breaking gadget as just one
example of what will further bind people together: Google
Pixel Buds introduced a few weeks ago. While the gadget
looks like normal smartphone ear buds or headphones, it
is much more. Pixel Buds can function as a nearly real-time
language translation system. With some simple commands, it
enables users to converse in a foreign tongue, breaking down
language barriers.
As these newer technologies and others such as blockchain
and the integration of tech and health care take root, we think
the natural trend toward globalization will solidify.
Binding us together
Certainly the pushback against globalization could linger or
become more intense in the near term, as tensions during the
NAFTA renegotiations are illustrating. Protectionist threats
could rise, and there could be setbacks.
Source - Statista, May 2017
AI revenues are expected to surge in coming years
Projected revenues from worldwide artificial intelligence market
(in U.S. $ billions)
$1.4 $2.4 $4.1
$6.6
$10.5
$16.2
$24.2
$34.4
$46.5
$59.7
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25
Artificial intelligence (AI) revenues could
more than quadruple from 2017 to 2020
They could surge almost 25-fold
from 2017 to 2025
Source - World Bank, FedEx Chairman and CEO Frederick W. Smith’s speech at
the National Competitiveness Forum, December 9, 2016
Trade is a bigger share now, with plenty of room to increase
Trade as a % of U.S. economic activity
9%
91%
Trade Other
1960
28%
72%
2015
But over time, globalization is resilient. It has staying power,
as it stands on thousands of years of world history and is now
being fueled by technological advancements that are binding
companies, economies, and peoples more closely together.
Globalization has already benefitted investors, especially in
the last 10–15 years, and we believe it has the potential to do so
in the future, especially with tech as the “X factor.”
9%
91%
Trade Other
3. 3 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Rising interest rates, stable commodity prices, and tighter
credit spreads have propelled Canadian preferred shares to
double-digit gains year to date. Despite the solid performance,
we believe preferred shares remain well-positioned to deliver
worthwhile returns on a 12-month time horizon, as valuations
are reasonable, fundamentals remain constructive, and the
development of a hybrid market will likely limit $25 preferred
share issuance. Over the past decade, preferred shares have
produced an annualized return equivalent to less than half the
average dividend over that period, suggesting the market may
still have potential to deliver moderate price appreciation.
Fundamentals remain constructive
Preferred shares have shined in an otherwise lacklustre year
for the Canadian bond market, outperforming even U.S. high-
yield bonds on a Canadian dollar-hedged basis as of October
13. Whereas a rising rate environment tends to dampen the
performance of bonds, it has been a decidedly favourable
tailwind for preferred shares with “rate reset” or “floating
rate” features, which comprise around 80% of the Canadian
preferred share market.
Although elevated household debt could limit the Bank
of Canada’s ability to meaningfully raise short-term rates
in a traditional rate-hiking cycle, we believe the Canadian
economy is likely to maintain enough momentum to allow
the central bank to continue to nudge rates modestly higher
through 2018. Higher short-term rates improve the cash flow
profile of rate-reset and floating-rate issues beyond the reset
date.
Beyond higher rates, preferred shares are one of the few
remaining markets where credit spreads remain slightly above
the long-term average, suggesting investors are still receiving
adequate compensation for taking on additional credit risk.
Meanwhile, the recent trend of “hybrid” issuance (interest-
bearing $1,000 par issues that trade on the over-the-counter
market) could be an underappreciated catalyst that may
further bolster sentiment towards preferred shares.
We believe hybrid issuance is good news for preferred shares
for two reasons. Based on current pricing, hybrids represent
a lower (after-tax) funding option for issuers, and this will
likely mean less preferred share issuance (i.e., less supply) and
a greater chance of redemption for existing rate reset issues
(i.e., potential for capital gains for issues trading at discount
to call price). A hybrid market developed in the U.S. market
Source - Bloomberg, RBC Wealth Management; data through 10/16/17
TSX preferred share index total returns since 2007
S&P/TSX Preferred Total Return Index
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
in 2014 and preceded a strong period of performance for U.S.
preferred shares that came against a backdrop of minimal new
issue supply in the $25 par market.
More room to run
Preferred shares have lagged the move higher in the 5-year
Government of Canada bond yield over the past few months.
This is partly a result of lower-priced issues having already
grinded higher and the most recent round of new issues now
trading well above $25. However, we continue to believe higher
rates are a net positive for preferred shares. The preferred share
market has only generated an approximate 2%–3% annualized
return over the past decade, well below the approximate 5%
average dividend the market has provided over that same
period (see chart). In our view, this suggests there is still room
for that market to deliver moderate capital appreciation from
the current level to complement a mid-4% yield.
We recommend investors pair high reset spread issues and
perpetuals with discounted rate resets and floaters. The lower-
priced issues offer upside potential if rates move higher which
provides some interest rate diversification for fixed income
portfolios that otherwise hold fixed coupon bonds, while
issues with higher reset spread and high dividend perpetuals
provide a bit of a downside buffer if market conditions worsen.
WHAT’S MOVING MARKETSCanada i n focus
Finding value in Canadian preferred shares
Joseph Wu & Mikhial Pasic – Toronto
4. 4 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The pressure
on that industry has also flipped the Financials sector’s
quarterly profit to a loss.
• Apart from the hurricanes’ negative impact, underlying
earnings and revenue trends seem just fine. Both beat
rates are above the long-term and recent averages. S&P
500 revenue growth is pacing at 4.4% y/y, similar to
nominal GDP growth. On balance, the banking industry
has delivered positive results amid solid loan growth and
lower-than-expected costs. Strong manufacturing activity
is signaling earnings beats for other cyclical industries, in
our view.
Canada
Alicia Buckiewicz & Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto
• The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions
(OSFI) published the final B-20 guidelines relating
to residential mortgage underwriting practices. The
most prominent change is to impose stricter stress
testing rules on borrowers with larger down payments,
a move mirroring one previously imposed on borrowers
with smaller down payments. This measure will pose a
headwind for the housing market, but we expect a soft
landing rather than a deep correction. The Bank of Canada
will provide additional guidance on its growth outlook,
including housing, within its Monetary Policy Report to be
released on October 25.
• In light of the new guidelines, RBC Capital Markets
believes that sector valuations for the mortgage insurers
are likely to remain constrained in the near term because
the new stricter mortgage underwriting guidelines and
newly implemented foreign buyer taxes are likely to
restrict mortgage loan growth. RBC Capital Markets sees
the B-20 guidelines as having a very minor negative effect
on Canadian banks, as the guidelines would only impact
10% of originations, but will likely have a more negative
impact on the non-prime lenders.
• The decision earlier this week to extend NAFTA
negotiation talks into 2018 helped the Canadian dollar
break out to the upside from its flat three-week trading
range. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again
this year, short-term interest rate differentials between
the Canadian and U.S. market are back in favor of the U.S.
dollar; however, any data supporting crude prices, like
an end to the oil supply glut, may be another positive
catalyst for the Canadian dollar.
• RBC Capital Markets expects higher earnings for the
Canadian base metal equities in Q3 compared to Q2.
Copper, zinc, nickel, and iron ore prices increased
United States
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
• Sector rotation has been the hallmark of the eight-
year U.S. equity bull market, and it persists. Following
blistering gains in September, economically-sensitive
areas—Energy, small-cap stocks, Financials, Industrials,
and Materials—have cooled off as the enthusiasm for
the reflation/growth trade has moderated amid less
buoyant economic data and uncertainties about tax cuts.
Nevertheless, major indexes such as the S&P 500 and
Dow Jones Industrial Average have reached successive
new all-time highs as other areas of the market, such as
Technology and Utilities, have taken up the slack.
• With the S&P 500 up 5.6% since mid-August and 19.7%
since the presidential election, our technical strategist
cautions the market could lose steam near term, which
would be normal following such big moves. However, the
secular (long-term) bull market remains firmly intact,
based on our technical, fundamental, and economic
indicators. We would continue to hold Market Weight
exposure in U.S. equities—meaning invest at the strategic
long-term allocation level in portfolios.
• Corporate earnings season is off to a slow start for good
reason. With 15% of companies having reported so far, Q3
earnings growth is pacing at just 4.3% y/y, well below the
6.7% consensus estimate in mid-August before hurricanes
hit Houston and Florida. Those extreme weather events
are distorting the overall trends. S&P 500 growth would
be tracking at 7.0% y/y if not for the hurricane losses
from property and casualty insurance companies which
could see a Q3 earnings decline of 64% y/y, on average,
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/18/17
Sector rotation continues as markets move higher
Top 3 performing S&P 500 sectors in September and October to date
9.8%
5.1%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Energy Financials Industrials
September
3.5%
2.3%
2.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Tech Utilities Materials
October (MTD)
5. 5 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
mid-double-digits in the quarter, and price gains went
alongside a strengthening global economy. However, for
the Canadian miners, the higher earnings may be partially
offset by a strengthening Canadian dollar, which was, on
average, 7% higher in Q3.
Europe
Frédérique Carrier & Thomas McGarrity – London
• The two-day EU council meeting is underway (October
19 and 20). It was supposed to be the event at which EU
leaders would deem enough progress had been made on
the “divorce bill,” EU citizen rights, and the Irish border
to start formal discussions regarding the future trade
relationship between post-Brexit U.K. and the EU. This
seems to be only a remote possibility now, in our view, as
discussions seem to have stalled. Financial discussions in
particular seem to have reached an impasse.
• Observers will be searching for any clues regarding
discussions on a transition arrangement and when talks
on a future relationship can begin in earnest. Without
them, the U.K. could crash out of the EU in March 2019,
a move we believe would be detrimental to the economy.
We expect corporates will likely have to start making
contingency plans for this eventuality over the next six
months. The next EU council meeting is scheduled for
December 14 and 15.
• Meanwhile, the labour market remained steady with
the unemployment rate at 4.3%. The tight labour market
is starting to feed through to wages, which are slowly
creeping up. Inflation continues to crimp household
disposable income, with CPI up 3% y/y in September vs. a
2.9% y/y increase a month earlier.
• In Europe, the consensus expectation is for the ECB (at its
October 26 meeting) to outline how the QE programme
will function from January 2018 onwards. We expect the
central bank to maintain a dovish stance and argue that
the length of time the QE programme runs matters more
than the size of the monthly bond purchases. RBC Capital
Markets expects the ECB to reduce net purchases to
around €30B per month from the current €60B and for the
duration of the programme to remain open until at least
September 2018.
A sia Paci fi c
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
• The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index rose and is a short
distance beneath its all-time high.
• Japanese indices have held on to strong gains. Japan’s
TOPIX is approximately 5% below its 2007 high of just
over 1,800. If the index breaks that level, it would be at
its highest since the early 1990s. Given the strength in
Japanese corporate earnings, it would not be a stretch for
the TOPIX to break through 1,800 in the next few months.
However, investors should acknowledge the year-to-date
strength of various Asian equity markets, including Japan.
A period of consolidation is increasingly likely.
• The Japanese election will take place on October 22. We
think it is likely Shinzo Abe will win, although it is less
certain if his Liberal Democratic Party will gain a two-
thirds majority. An Abe win would be viewed positively by
Japanese equity investors.
• The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party
of China kicked off in Beijing with General Secretory Xi
Jinping giving a three-and-half hour opening speech. In it,
Xi pointed out that the principal contradiction of China is
between unbalanced and inadequate development versus
the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life. This may
indicate that China will place a higher priority on social
fairness than before, perhaps, for example, by trying to
tackle the growing disparity between rich and poor.
• Xi’s 30,000-word report outlined a blueprint of the ruling
party’s objectives at a very high level and covered a wide
range of areas, including society, economy, law, military,
diplomacy, party building, and so on. Lacking in detailed
policies, the report should have little imminent impact
on the equity market. The Congress ends on October
24, and a new party leadership will be announced. We
expect five of the seven members of the powerful Standing
Committee to retire. For more on this, please see our
publication China: The long march to reform.*June 1996 data is truncated so as to not distort the other values
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 10/19/17
Japan’s equities far less expensive than previous market highs
TOPIX Index trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio
107.9x
21.9x
16.2x
Jun 1996* Feb 2000 Feb 2007 Oct 2017
474.1x
6. 6 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Data as of October 19, 2017
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX and Brazilian Ibovespa. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper
Index data and U.S. fixed income returns as of Wednesday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention
(CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 8:35 pm GMT 10/19/17.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD 7.7% return means the Canadian dollar
rose 7.7% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 112.53 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 112.53 yen. USD/JPY -3.8% return means the U.S. dollar fell 3.8% vs. the
yen year to date.
Commodities (USD) Price MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
Gold (spot $/oz) 1,289.59 0.7% 11.9% 1.6% 10.2%
Silver (spot $/oz) 17.26 3.6% 8.4% -2.3% 8.9%
Copper ($/metric ton) 6,949.00 8.0% 25.8% 49.4% 33.4%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 51.29 -0.7% -4.5% -0.6% 11.8%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 57.24 -0.5% 0.7% 8.7% 17.8%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) 2.90 -3.7% -22.3% -8.7% 18.6%
Govt bonds (bps chg) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.316% -1.8 -12.8 57.3 29.3
Canada 10-Yr 2.015% -8.4 29.4 82.0 55.9
U.K. 10-Yr 1.279% -8.6 4.0 19.7 -54.3
Germany 10-Yr 0.395% -6.9 18.7 36.5 -17.0
Fixed Income (returns) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Aggregate 2.59% 0.0% 3.2% 0.5% 4.9%
U.S. Invest Grade Corp 3.16% 0.3% 5.5% 2.6% 10.5%
U.S. High Yield Corp 5.41% 0.4% 7.4% 8.2% 20.4%
Currencies Rate MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Dollar Index 93.1100 0.0% -8.9% -4.9% -1.9%
CAD/USD 0.8013 -0.1% 7.7% 5.1% 4.3%
USD/CAD 1.2480 0.1% -7.1% -4.8% -4.1%
EUR/USD 1.1852 0.3% 12.7% 8.0% 4.6%
GBP/USD 1.3161 -1.8% 6.7% 7.1% -14.9%
AUD/USD 0.7879 0.6% 9.3% 2.0% 8.7%
USD/JPY 112.5300 0.0% -3.8% 8.8% -5.8%
EUR/JPY 133.3700 0.3% 8.5% 17.5% -1.5%
EUR/GBP 0.9005 2.1% 5.5% 0.8% 22.9%
EUR/CHF 1.1570 1.1% 7.9% 6.6% 6.8%
USD/SGD 1.3565 -0.1% -6.2% -2.2% -2.3%
USD/CNY 6.6138 -0.6% -4.8% -1.8% 4.0%
USD/MXN 18.8003 3.0% -9.3% 1.5% 14.0%
USD/BRL 3.1708 0.3% -2.6% 0.1% -18.4%
MARKET SCORECARD
Equities (local currency) Level MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
S&P 500 2,562.10 1.7% 14.4% 19.5% 26.0%
Dow Industrials (DJIA) 23,163.04 3.4% 17.2% 27.3% 34.4%
NASDAQ 6,605.07 1.7% 22.7% 25.9% 34.6%
Russell 2000 1,502.04 0.8% 10.7% 22.9% 29.0%
S&P/TSX Comp 15,818.00 1.2% 3.5% 6.6% 15.0%
FTSE All-Share 4,127.21 1.9% 6.6% 8.2% 18.8%
STOXX Europe 600 389.11 0.2% 7.7% 13.2% 6.8%
EURO STOXX 50 3,602.08 0.2% 9.5% 17.9% 10.1%
Hang Seng 28,159.09 2.2% 28.0% 20.8% 22.0%
Shanghai Comp 3,370.17 0.6% 8.6% 9.3% -0.5%
Nikkei 225 21,448.52 5.4% 12.2% 26.2% 18.3%
India Sensex 32,389.96 3.5% 21.6% 15.7% 18.4%
Singapore Straits Times 3,334.91 3.6% 15.8% 17.2% 10.3%
Brazil Ibovespa 76,283.16 2.7% 26.7% 20.1% 60.8%
Mexican Bolsa IPC 50,000.25 -0.7% 9.5% 3.1% 12.3%
UPCOMING EVENTS
The dates reflect North American time zones. All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available.
Fri, Oct 20 Tue, Oct 24 Wed, Oct 25, cont. Thu, Oct 26, cont.
U.S. Existing-Home Sales (-0.9% m/m) Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI U.K. Q3 GDP (0.3% q/q, 1.5% y/y) Germany Consumer Confidence
Fed President Yellen Speaks (DC) Eurozone Markit Services/Comp. PMI U.K. Index of Services U.S. Wholesale Inventories
Canada CPI (0.3% m/m) Eurozone Q2 Govt. Debt and Deficit U.S. Durable/Capital Goods U.S. Pending Home Sales (0.3% m/m)
Sun, Oct 22 Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI U.S. New Home Sales (-1.8% m/m) Fri, Oct 27
China September Property Prices U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (53.0) U.S. FHFA New House Price (0.4% m/m) U.S. Q3 GDP (2.6% q/q, annl'zd)
Mon, Oct 23 U.S. Markit Services/Composite PMI Thu, Oct 26 Week of Oct 30
Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Wed, Oct 25 China Industrial Profits BoJ Meeting (10/31)
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Germany IFO Expectations Japan CPI Fed Meeting (11/1)
U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity BoC Meeting ECB Meeting BoE Meeting (11/2)
7. 7 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Authors
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Mikhial Pasic, Jay Roberts, and Joseph Wu, employees of RBC Wealth
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Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
kelly.bogdanov@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Joseph Wu, CFA – Toronto, Canada
joseph.wu@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Mikhial Pasic, CFA – Toronto, Canada
mikhial.pasic@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Alicia Buckiewicz, CFA – Toronto, Canada
alicia.buckiewicz@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Farazeh Mahboob – Toronto, Canada
farazeh.mahboob@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Thomas McGarrity, CFA – London, United Kingdom
thomas.mcgarrity@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China
jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
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Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected
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Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector
average over 12 months.
As of September 30, 2017
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] 859 52.92 294 34.23
Hold [Sector Perform] 660 40.67 154 23.33
Sell [Underperform] 104 6.41 7 6.73
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
8. 8 | Global Insight Weekly
October 19, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
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