The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in global fixed income markets from an investment perspective. It discusses:
1) Low volatility in US Treasury markets with yields holding in a tight range, and the rise in negative-yielding global debt nearing $9 trillion, weighing on Treasuries.
2) Upcoming central bank meetings at Jackson Hole, the ECB, and Fed which may provide opportunities for investors if they cause yields to move.
3) The document recommends a focus on quality corporate bonds in the 5-7 year part of the yield curve for European investors.
when officially can i withdraw my pi Network coins.
Global Insight-Wake Me Up When September Begins
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Priced (in USD) as of 8/24/17 market close, EST (unless otherwise stated).
For important disclosures and required non-U.S. analyst disclosures, see page 6.
While equity markets have bucked the normal trend of low
summer volatility in recent weeks, Treasury market volatility
remains the lowest we have seen over the past five years. Since
the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2.40% back in March, it
has held within a range of just 29 basis points, from 2.13% to
2.42%, the tightest trading range over that same time frame—
low volatility on top of already low yields has given investors
relatively few opportunities this year.
Negative yields
What’s more, despite a steadily improving global economic
backdrop, the market value of negative-yielding debt is
once again on the climb, reaching 2017 highs near $9T. As
the upper chart on the next page shows, the U.S. Treasury
market remains at the whim of the global yield backdrop,
and if Treasuries are to eventually break out of their catatonic
state, this measure might indicate that the move will be to the
downside.
The key driver of the increase in negative-yielding assets has
been the market’s repricing of European Central Bank (ECB)
expectations. In July, the market perhaps overreacted to
the risks that the ECB could be on the verge of pulling back
the reins on monetary policy stimulus, which sent yields
sharply higher, particularly in Germany, and reduced the
stock of global debt trading to negative yields. Since then,
expectations have been lowered with the market awaiting
actual developments from the ECB’s meeting on September 7,
and the Fed’s meeting on September 20. But before these key
meetings can happen, the central bankers of the world gather
under some mountains in Wyoming.
Wake me up when September begins
Tom Garretson – New York
August 24, 2017
A closer look
Low market volatility in August, and a high number of market missives about said low volatility, is a
tradition unlike any other in finance. But with key central bank meetings on the horizon, will fixed income
markets finally wake from their summer slumber come September?
R B C W E A L T H M A N A G E M E N T
Global InsightW e e k l y
3 U.S. corporate debt issuers on another binge
3 Economic indicators point to gains for Canada’s economy
4 The U.K.’s and EU’s post-Brexit priorities
4 Private cash pours into state-owned Chinese telecom giant
Market pulse
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; MOVE Index shows 20-day
moving average; data through 8/22/17
Low volatility has 10Y Treasury trading in historically
tight range
25
45
65
85
105
125
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10Y UST 5-month rolling trading range (left axis)
Treasury market volatility (MOVE Index, right)
2. 2 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Jackson Hole Symposium to set the stage?
The annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming Economic Symposium
takes place this year from August 24–26, with Janet Yellen,
chair of the Fed, and Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, both
scheduled to speak on August 25. In years past, the venue has
been used to set the stage for major, market-moving, central
bank policy shifts, and in others it has been used for the open
buffets, some policy discussion, and not much else. This year,
we expect it to be closer to the latter with both Yellen and
Draghi likely sticking to recent talking points. We will focus
on Draghi and how he characterizes the recent strength in the
euro, which is currently at levels that in the past have caused
the ECB to attempt to talk it lower through dovish comments.
With respect to Yellen, we’ll watch to see if she continues to
depict weak U.S. inflation as “transitory” or if it may be seen as
more persistent—if the latter, then expect the market to forget
about the chance of another rate hike this year.
This brings us to the September meetings, where we see the
ECB’s as the most important for markets and investors.
While the market has dialed back its expectations, and the
ECB has already expressed concerns about financial markets,
particularly in currencies, overshooting expectations, we could
see the ECB adjust lower the amount of its asset purchase
program, though we do not expect an announcement of a
specific end date. Regardless, while the market has begun to
price some chance that the ECB will begin raising rates, RBC
Capital Markets expects negative policy rates to remain in
place through at least 2018.
As for the Fed, it’s a near-certainty at this point that it will
formally announce plans to begin shrinking the balance
sheet at the September 20 meeting. But the Fed has done
everything short of hiring skywriting airplanes over Manhattan
to telegraph it to the market that it’s hard to imagine that it will
prove to be a major event. The more significant aspect may be
the updated economic projections where all eyes will be on
the inflation outlook, and the need for further rate hikes. We
expect Fed officials to edge lower their rate hike expectations
amid lower near-term inflation pressures.
Stay positive
While the market of negative-yielding debt is again on the rise,
we generally tend to support the notion that securities with
positive yields are a better deal for investors than those with
negative yields; a controversial position, but one that we hold,
nonetheless. For those looking to put money to work, we like
quality at the moment with rich valuations in the riskier parts
of the credit market, and the intermediate part of yield curves
around seven years.
For European investors, only about 10% of the negative-yield
universe currently comprises corporates, the rest comprises
sovereigns. Therefore, we remain overweight corporate bonds
in the 5- to 7-year part of the curve, with a focus on quality.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate
Negative Yielding Debt Index; data through 8/22/17
Global negative-yielding debt on the rise again; weighing
on Treasuries
$6.0
$6.5
$7.0
$7.5
$8.0
$8.5
$9.0
$9.52.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
Dec 2016 Feb 2017 Apr 2017 Jun 2017
10Y U.S. Treasury (left axis)
Global market value of negative-yielding debt
(inverted, right)
Intrillions
Source - RBC Wealth Management
Portfolio positioning for the current environment
N
●
N
●
A
●
N
●
N
●
OW
U.S. market views
UW OW
Preferred shares
UW OW
U.S. market positioning
Investment-grade credit bias
AA BBB
High-yield corporate bonds
Yield curve positioning
Short Long
Investment-grade corporate bonds
UW
With Treasuries trading in tight
ranges, we stay focused on the
5‒7Y part of the curve
Quality is king at the moment
We are steadily moving up
in quality
The risk/reward balance in HY
is still not in investors' favor
Prices are high, but a subdued
yield outlook should support
the preferred sector
The sector could be exposed if the ECB does scale back asset
purchases, so investors may find select opportunities in non-
ECB eligible corporates.
The lower chart summarizes our views in the U.S. Like many
investors, we await market volatility for better entry points,
but maintain our subdued outlook for yields—partially
because negative-yielding debt will be with global markets
for some time. Therefore, we still see pullbacks in yields as
opportunities to buy and extend duration, and look for central
banks this fall to provide some opportunities for investors.
3. 3 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
7.8% higher than last year. Canadian retail sales volumes
have been steadily rising and appear to be matching the
strong year-to-date employment gains. Combined with
improving manufacturing sales volumes and wholesale
trade volumes, despite the dip in the latter this past week,
these three economic indicators reported over the past
week are all positive for the Canadian economy and
point to the possibility of broad-based economic growth.
What will be interesting to see, but difficult to accurately
measure, is if Canadians are taking on more credit to
spend on retail sales which they cannot truly afford further
down the line.
• The largest and most high-profile of a series of large
CAD bond deals from non-domestic issuers (“maples”)
recently came to market. CA$12.7B of maple debt has
already been issued this year, the largest year of supply
since 2007. Two factors appear to be driving the uptick
in supply. The first is that funding costs for U.S. issuers
are lower in Canadian dollars than U.S. dollars on an
unhedged basis. The second advantage to issuing a bond in
Canada is strong investor demand. For eligible investors,
we recommend maple exposure as this provides non-
domestic credit exposure and these bonds have benefited
from the recent move higher in Canadian yields.
• We think the Canadian preferred share market still offers
reasonable value (especially compared to other credit
market options) for long-term investors. We continue
to believe the most attractive way for investors to gain
exposure to preferred shares is via a basket of rate-reset
and perpetual issues, and our preferred share ideas fall
into two categories: (1) potential for upside and (2) stable
income. Rate-reset and floating issues trading below CA$20
offer upside potential, while perpetual (ideally higher
dividend issues) and rate-reset issues with larger reset
spreads provide stable income.
United States
Bill Kuehn & Sam Renikoff – Minneapolis
• There has been no summer lull in the primary debt
market, with corporate issuance over the last month
pushing the year-to-date investment-grade tally past $1T
at a record pace, as issuers have taken advantage of low
yields and strong demand. Issuance has been utilized
primarily for refinancing and general corporate use,
rather than merger financing, which Bloomberg notes
has fallen from 20% to just 13% of total issuance. Elevated
equity prices have made acquisitions expensive, and
strong first-half earnings have reduced the need for
corporations to look for inorganic growth. At the current
pace, we will likely see another record-setting year after
2016’s debt binge saw issuance hit $1.35T.
• Politicians have voiced confidence that Congress will
raise the debt ceiling before the Treasury’s projected
deadline on September 29—although some Wall Street
estimates indicate the U.S. could stay within its borrowing
limits through mid-October. Treasury Secretary Steve
Mnuchin stated that “we cannot put the credit of the
United States on the line,” as failing to raise the debt
ceiling could prevent the Treasury from fulfilling its
obligations, creating principal risk for October T-bills.
But we expect Congress to do as has been done 78 times
in the past, and reach an agreement to preserve the
creditworthiness of the U.S. government. Fitch Ratings
noted that if the U.S. does not raise the debt limit in a
“timely manner,” its AAA rating is likely to be placed on
review for downgrade.
• The dog days of summer have set in for the equity
markets, with all three major indexes treading water near
all-time highs as political headlines continue to come
across the tape. We expect this to remain the case through
the Labor Day weekend, and then markets will turn their
attention to Washington, and begin to assess the likelihood
and implications of tax reform.
Canada
Diana Di Luca – Toronto
• Canadian headline retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in June,
slightly missing economists’ expectations, as auto sales
fell 1.4% and gas station receipts dipped 1.8% on lower
prices. Excluding these laggards, retail sales increased
1.1% on the month. Underlying retail sales volumes were
particularly strong in June, rising 0.5% m/m, which
following a 1.0% rise in May takes the annual sales volume
Source - RBC Wealth Management, FactSet; data through 8/23/17
August weakness is nothing new this recovery
S&P 500 August monthly returns
-4.7%
-5.7%
2%
-3.1%
3.8%
-6.3%
-0.1%
-1.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
7-year average
-1.9%
4. 4 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Europe
Frédérique Carrier & Thomas McGarrity – London
• The U.K. government, ahead of the resumption of Brexit
negotiations on August 28, finally released a series of
papers explaining its vision for a post-Brexit U.K. Having
recently outlined its position on a potential future customs
arrangement and the Northern Ireland border, a paper
on the desired judicial arrangements post Brexit was the
main event. Overall, these papers seem to suggest a shift
away from a very hard Brexit approach outlined earlier
by Prime Minister Theresa May to something slightly more
pragmatic.
• Nevertheless, the EU will continue to prioritize settling
three issues before moving on to discussing the terms
of the future relationship. The issues are: EU citizens’
rights in a post-Brexit U.K., the border between Europe’s
Ireland and the U.K.’s Northern Ireland, and the financial
settlement to be paid by the U.K., also known as the
“divorce bill.”
• After pointing to a slight loss of momentum in most
European countries in July, the composite flash August
Euro Area Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged
up slightly to 55.8. The German manufacturing PMI in
particular was strong, reaching 59.4. Overall, it seems the
level of economic activity for the region has stabilized at
a healthy level. The euro maintained its 1.18 level against
the USD, a two-and-a-half year high, but is far off the 1.39
level reached before the European Central Bank (ECB)
embarked on its quantitative easing (QE) programme.
• While economic news is reassuring, investors are starting
to worry about certain risks. Italian elections were
highlighted in particular as former Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi seems to be emerging as a king maker for the
February 2018 elections. His support for the introduction of a
national parallel currency, and concerns regarding potential
ECB tapering combined to unnerve investors. The spread of
Italian government BTP bonds to German Bunds widened
abruptly from 151 basis points earlier this summer to 175,
though still below the 200 registered in June. RBC Capital
Markets continues to expect the QE programme to be
extended in September, with only a few minor changes. In
particular, it believes the programme will remain open-ended
to signal monetary policy will remain loose.
A sia Paci fi c
Yufei Yang – Hong Kong
• China’s second-largest wireless carrier formally announced
its mixed-ownership reform plan. China United Network
Communications (600050 CH), the Shanghai-based holding
company of China Unicom (762 HK), will sell a 35.2% stake
to 14 strategic investors, including tech giants Alibaba
(BABA), Tencent (700 HK), and Baidu (BIDU). With $11.7B
raised, the deal will be the largest capital raising in Asia
since 2010. Last September, the Chinese government chose
six state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for the plan in order to
draw more private capital into them, aiming to make state
firms more efficient.
• Chinese SOEs are becoming more generous in paying
out dividends after regulators encouraged them to do so.
PetroChina (857 HK), the nation’s largest oil producer, joined
its SOE peers China Mobile (941 HK) and Shenhua Energy
(1088 HK) in rewarding investors with special dividends.
Total dividends amounted to 0.069 yuan per share,
equivalent to PetroChina’s entire interim profit. Driven by
higher oil prices and stringent cost control its net profit
surged 22 times to 12.7 billion yuan ($1.9B).
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) unveiled the Galaxy Note
8, ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) much-anticipated iPhone 8. Major
specifications were largely in line with market expectations.
The new smartphone will be equipped with a 6.3-inch
AMOLED display that curves at the edges like the S8. It will
also be Samsung’s first flagship model with a dual-camera
system. The giant Korean conglomerate is trying to move
past the failure of last year’s Galaxy Note 7 launch, which
was recalled after defective batteries caused spontaneous
fires. The company posted a record high profit in Q1 and
regained its No.1 position in global smartphone shipments
earlier this year, according to IDC.
• The Bank of Indonesia surprised the market by lowering
interest rates. The central bank cut the benchmark rate by
0.25% to 4.5%, citing an improving inflation outlook and
expectations of one more U.S. rate hike this year.Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 8/23/17
Risk premiums rise in Italy despite robust eurozone
economic momentum
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Euro/dollar
Yieldspread
10-year Italian government BTP
minus 10-year German Bund
Euro/dollar spot
5. 5 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Data as of August 24, 2017
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX and Brazilian Ibovespa. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper
Index data and U.S. fixed income returns as of Wednesday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention
(CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 8:35 pm GMT 8/24/17.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.79 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.79 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD 7.3% return means the Canadian dollar
rose 7.3% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 109.59 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 109.58 yen. USD/JPY -6.3% return means the U.S. dollar fell 6.3% vs. the
yen year to date.
Commodities (USD) Price MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
Gold (spot $/oz) 1,285.90 1.3% 11.6% -2.9% 11.3%
Silver (spot $/oz) 16.97 0.8% 6.6% -8.5% 14.9%
Copper ($/metric ton) 6,537.25 3.2% 18.4% 41.7% 31.5%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 47.28 -5.8% -12.0% 1.7% 24.1%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 52.20 -0.9% -8.1% 6.4% 22.3%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) 2.95 5.5% -20.8% 5.4% 11.2%
Govt bonds (bps chg) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.194% -10.0 -25.0 63.3 19.1
Canada 10-Yr 1.886% -17.1 16.5 84.7 62.4
U.K. 10-Yr 1.053% -17.7 -18.6 50.0 -76.4
Germany 10-Yr 0.376% -16.7 16.8 46.5 -21.6
Fixed Income (returns) Yield MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Aggregate 2.45% 0.6% 3.4% 0.2% 5.4%
U.S. Invest Grade Corp 3.10% 0.5% 5.0% 1.8% 10.6%
U.S. High Yield Corp 5.77% -0.5% 5.5% 8.2% 19.3%
Currencies Rate MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
U.S. Dollar Index 93.2890 0.5% -8.7% -1.6% 0.0%
CAD/USD 0.7985 -0.4% 7.3% 3.2% 6.1%
USD/CAD 1.2524 0.4% -6.8% -3.1% -5.7%
EUR/USD 1.1801 -0.3% 12.2% 4.8% 1.6%
GBP/USD 1.2800 -3.1% 3.7% -3.3% -18.9%
AUD/USD 0.7899 -1.3% 9.6% 3.8% 10.4%
USD/JPY 109.5900 -0.6% -6.3% 9.1% -7.4%
EUR/JPY 129.3200 -1.0% 5.2% 14.3% -6.0%
EUR/GBP 0.9220 2.9% 8.0% 8.3% 25.2%
EUR/CHF 1.1393 -0.5% 6.3% 4.6% 5.4%
USD/SGD 1.3620 0.5% -5.9% 0.5% -3.4%
USD/CNY 6.6615 -1.0% -4.1% 0.0% 4.0%
USD/MXN 17.7215 -0.4% -14.5% -4.0% 3.0%
USD/BRL 3.1444 0.6% -3.4% -2.5% -11.5%
MARKET SCORECARD
Equities (local currency) Level MTD YTD 1 yr 2 yr
S&P 500 2,438.97 -1.3% 8.9% 12.1% 28.8%
Dow Industrials (DJIA) 21,783.40 -0.5% 10.2% 17.9% 37.2%
NASDAQ 6,271.33 -1.2% 16.5% 20.2% 38.6%
Russell 2000 1,373.88 -3.6% 1.2% 11.0% 23.6%
S&P/TSX Comp 15,076.16 -0.4% -1.4% 3.1% 15.5%
FTSE All-Share 4,058.44 0.3% 4.8% 8.8% 25.0%
STOXX Europe 600 374.51 -0.9% 3.6% 8.6% 9.5%
EURO STOXX 50 3,444.73 -0.1% 4.7% 14.5% 12.1%
Hang Seng 27,518.60 0.7% 25.1% 20.6% 29.5%
Shanghai Comp 3,271.51 0.0% 5.4% 6.0% 1.9%
Nikkei 225 19,353.77 -2.9% 1.3% 16.6% 4.4%
India Sensex 31,596.06 -2.8% 18.7% 12.6% 22.7%
Singapore Straits Times 3,272.16 -1.7% 13.6% 14.0% 15.1%
Brazil Ibovespa 71,132.70 7.9% 18.1% 23.2% 60.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC 51,470.06 0.9% 12.8% 7.8% 24.1%
UPCOMING EVENTS
The dates reflect North American time zones. All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available.
Thu, Aug 24 - Sat, Aug 26 Tue, Aug 29 Wed, Aug 30, cont. Thu, Aug 31, cont.
Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium Japan Retail Sales Eurozone Consumer Confidence Eurozone CPI
Fri, Aug 25 U.K. Nationwide House Price Germany CPI U.S. Personal Income/Spending
Germany Q2 GDP (0.6% q/q, 2.1% y/y) U.S. Conf. Board Cons. Confidence U.S. Q2 GDP Rev. (2.7% q/q annl'zd) U.S. Core PCE (0.1% m/m)
Germany IFO Expectations Wed, Aug 30 U.S. ADP Employment Change (180K) U.S. Pending Home Sales (0.6% m/m)
U.S. Durable and Capital Goods China NBS Manufacturing PMI (51.2) U.S. Personal Consumption Canada GDP
Fed President Yellen Speaks (WY) China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Thu, Aug 31 Wed, Sep 6
ECB President Draghi Speaks (WY) China Swift Global Payments China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (50.9) BoC Meeting
Sat, Aug 26 Japan Industrial Production Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Thu, Sep 7
China Industrial Profits Eurozone Economic Confidence Eurozone Unemployment ECB Meeting
6. 6 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Authors
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the
personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all
of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation
of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly
or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC
Capital Markets, LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes,
without limitation, RBC Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign
affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report has been prepared
by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect wholly-owned
subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related
issuer of Royal Bank of Canada.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Diana Di Luca and Yufei Yang, employees
of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion
Securities Inc.; and Frédérique Carrier and Thomas McGarrity,
employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal
Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited; contributed
to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not
registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S.
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are
not associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be
subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject
companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of
securities in accounts held by research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more
companies), RBC Wealth Management may choose to provide
important disclosure information by reference. To access current
disclosures, clients should refer to http://www.rbccm.com/
Tom Garretson, CFA – New York, United States
tom.garretson@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Bill Kuehn – Minneapolis, United States
william.kuehn@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Sam Renikoff – Minneapolis, United States
sam.renikoff@rbc.com; RBCCapital Markets, LLC
Diana Di Luca – Toronto, Canada
diana.diluca@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Thomas McGarrity, CFA – London, United Kingdom
thomas.mcgarrity@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.
Yufei Yang – Hong Kong, China
yufei.yang@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
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firms. Such information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth
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chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its
affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include the
Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend
Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided
Portfolio: All Cap Growth (RL 12), and former lists called the Guided
Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL 9),
and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital
Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the
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‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended
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from a Recommended List.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require
member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories
- Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm’s own rating
categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick
(TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most
closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the
meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a
relative basis (as described below).
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the
analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned
to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that
stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s
sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick
(TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most
closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the
meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a
relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected
to provide significant absolute total return over 12 months with a
favorable risk-reward ratio. Outperform (O): Expected to materially
outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP):
Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector
average over 12 months.
As of June 30, 2017
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] 826 52.01 293 35.47
Hold [Sector Perform] 657 41.37 144 21.92
Sell [Underperform] 105 6.61 7 6.67
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
7. 7 | Global Insight Weekly
August 24, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average
and Above Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a
security’s lower level of financial or operating predictability, illiquid
share trading volumes, high balance sheet leverage, or limited
operating history that result in a higher expectation of financial and/
or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Risks to Rating and Price Target
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the impediments to obtaining that valuation be described. Where
applicable, this information is included in the text of our research
in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Risks to Rating and Price
Target”, respectively.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received
compensation that is based upon various factors, including total
revenues of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of
which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of
the member companies of RBC Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates.
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The authors are employed by one of the following entities: RBC
Wealth Management USA, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, a
securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Minnesota
and New York, USA; by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., a securities
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Dominion Securities Inc., a securities broker-dealer with principal
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Research Resources
This document is produced by the Global Portfolio Advisory
Committee within RBC Wealth Management’s Portfolio Advisory
Group. The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory Group provides support
related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for the firm’s
Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in
assembling portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities.
The Committee leverages the broad market outlook as developed by
the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, providing additional tactical
and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC Investment
Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources.
Third-party disclaimers
The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is
the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard
& Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither
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means the London interbank offered rate as administered by ICE Benchmark
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth
Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to
be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by
Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates
contained in this report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of
the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided
in good faith but without legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide