This paper presents a summary of the international literature regarding pilots’ behavior under adverse weather conditions. The literature also covers the influences on the decision-making process of the pilot. The focus of this study is on pilots who fly solely in general aviation.
In 1994, the University of Texas Human Research Project and Delta Airline developed the Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA) program. With time, the LOSA program evolved into what is now known as Threat and Error Management (TEM).
The TEM framework is an applied concept which emerged from the observations and surveys of actual flight operations. It considers the various issues that a flight crew may encounter as a result of internal and external factors.
This model explores the contributing factors of the threat to aviation safety and, in turn, allows for the unearthing of ways to mitigate them and maintain proper safety margins. Now recognized and adopted across continents, the TEM framework aims to educate flight personnel on managing threats and errors before they degenerate into serious incidents or accidents. It is important to note that TEM is also applicable to maintenance operations, cabin crew, and air traffic control.
In 1994, the University of Texas Human Research Project and Delta Airline developed the Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA) program. With time, the LOSA program evolved into what is now known as Threat and Error Management (TEM).
The TEM framework is an applied concept which emerged from the observations and surveys of actual flight operations. It considers the various issues that a flight crew may encounter as a result of internal and external factors.
This model explores the contributing factors of the threat to aviation safety and, in turn, allows for the unearthing of ways to mitigate them and maintain proper safety margins. Now recognized and adopted across continents, the TEM framework aims to educate flight personnel on managing threats and errors before they degenerate into serious incidents or accidents. It is important to note that TEM is also applicable to maintenance operations, cabin crew, and air traffic control.
Review of the National Culture Influence on Pilot’s DecisionMaking during fli...IOSRJBM
Thisreview paperstudies the influence of the national culture onflying safety in the cockpit. Likewise, the study aims toevaluate the pilot behaviour and response to risk during flight in terms of pilot decisionmaking. According to Helmreich (2000), ―cultural values are so deeply ingrained; it is unlikely that exhortation, edict, or generic training programs can modify them. The challenge is to develop organizational initiatives that congruent with the culture‖. Thus,evaluating the technology-culture interference impact on a pilot’s decision-making performance, within a specific region gives deep understanding of the pilot’s behaviour under the effect of this region national culture. In addition,this appraises the risk tolerance, error management and factors that affect pilot decision-making in regarding to national culture within the region.The expected contribution of this research is to enhance the pilot decision-making performance within the region of North Africa. Moreover, this study will enhances the implementation of Crew Resource Management training program (CRM), in which will support the culture calibration of the CRM tofit the pilot’sneeds within this region. Ultimately, a safe operation of the aircrafts and improvethe aviation marketwithin the region
Aeronautical Decision Making And Risk Management For PilotsMySkyMom
This presentation relies heavily on the FAA\'s Risk Management Handbook, which can be found at http://www.faa.gov It covers factors related to ADM, statistics, best practices, and related case studies.
Risk Perception Of Turkish Helicopter Pilots And The Relationship Between The...inventionjournals
:Aircraft and flight system accidents due to human error sare more common than accidents due to mechanical failure. This study aims to determine the risk perception of Turkishhelicopterpilots and the relationship between their flight experience decision making styles. In this context, the analyses are conducted among helicopter pilots flying in accordance with general aviation rules. In this context, analyses are conducted with the participation of helicopter pilots flying according to general aviation rules (n=308) in Turkey. In the light of these analyses, it is seen that there is a relationship between the risk perceptions and decision making styles of the pilots. Also, there are considerable differences found between the flight hours and decision making styles of the pilots. However, there are no significant differences between the ages and the decision making styles. The results are discussed in comparison to the studies in the literature.
Review of the National Culture Influence on Pilot’s DecisionMaking during fli...IOSRJBM
Thisreview paperstudies the influence of the national culture onflying safety in the cockpit. Likewise, the study aims toevaluate the pilot behaviour and response to risk during flight in terms of pilot decisionmaking. According to Helmreich (2000), ―cultural values are so deeply ingrained; it is unlikely that exhortation, edict, or generic training programs can modify them. The challenge is to develop organizational initiatives that congruent with the culture‖. Thus,evaluating the technology-culture interference impact on a pilot’s decision-making performance, within a specific region gives deep understanding of the pilot’s behaviour under the effect of this region national culture. In addition,this appraises the risk tolerance, error management and factors that affect pilot decision-making in regarding to national culture within the region.The expected contribution of this research is to enhance the pilot decision-making performance within the region of North Africa. Moreover, this study will enhances the implementation of Crew Resource Management training program (CRM), in which will support the culture calibration of the CRM tofit the pilot’sneeds within this region. Ultimately, a safe operation of the aircrafts and improvethe aviation marketwithin the region
Aeronautical Decision Making And Risk Management For PilotsMySkyMom
This presentation relies heavily on the FAA\'s Risk Management Handbook, which can be found at http://www.faa.gov It covers factors related to ADM, statistics, best practices, and related case studies.
Risk Perception Of Turkish Helicopter Pilots And The Relationship Between The...inventionjournals
:Aircraft and flight system accidents due to human error sare more common than accidents due to mechanical failure. This study aims to determine the risk perception of Turkishhelicopterpilots and the relationship between their flight experience decision making styles. In this context, the analyses are conducted among helicopter pilots flying in accordance with general aviation rules. In this context, analyses are conducted with the participation of helicopter pilots flying according to general aviation rules (n=308) in Turkey. In the light of these analyses, it is seen that there is a relationship between the risk perceptions and decision making styles of the pilots. Also, there are considerable differences found between the flight hours and decision making styles of the pilots. However, there are no significant differences between the ages and the decision making styles. The results are discussed in comparison to the studies in the literature.
ANALYZING AIRCRAFT LANDING DECISIONMAKING THROUGH FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH: A COM...ijseajournal
Due to the importance of weather in people's lives, various groups have advocated for accurate climate
information. However, weather predictions can often be unclear or ambiguous. Weather advice and
information are crucial in determining the safety of landing an aircraft in aviation. To address this,
Mamdani Fuzzy Logic will be used to compare two scenarios: one with three inputs (wind direction, wind
speed, and visibility) and another that includes the pilot's experience to assess its impact on the landing
process. A fuzzy logic-based intelligent system generates three decisions: feasible, careful, and not feasible
for landing an aircraft on a runway. The difference rate between the two experiments was 68%, indicating
that the pilot's experience played a significant role and forced its importance in the results.
ANALYZING AIRCRAFT LANDING DECISIONMAKING THROUGH FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH: A COM...ijseajournal
Due to the importance of weather in people's lives, various groups have advocated for accurate climate
information. However, weather predictions can often be unclear or ambiguous. Weather advice and
information are crucial in determining the safety of landing an aircraft in aviation. To address this,
Mamdani Fuzzy Logic will be used to compare two scenarios: one with three inputs (wind direction, wind
speed, and visibility) and another that includes the pilot's experience to assess its impact on the landing
process. A fuzzy logic-based intelligent system generates three decisions: feasible, careful, and not feasible
for landing an aircraft on a runway. The difference rate between the two experiments was 68%, indicating
that the pilot's experience played a significant role and forced its importance in the results.
Available online at httpdocs.lib.purdue.edujateJournal.docxcelenarouzie
Available online at http://docs.lib.purdue.edu/jate
Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering 3:2 (2014) 2–13
Crew Resource Management Application in Commercial Aviation
Frank Wagener
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
David C. Ison
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University–Worldwide
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to extend previous examinations of commercial multi-crew airplane accidents and incidents to evaluate
the Crew Resource Management (CRM) application as it relates to error management during the final approach and landing phase of
flight. With data obtained from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), a x2
test of independence was performed to examine if there would be a statistically significant relationship between airline management
practices and CRM-related causes of accidents/incidents. Between 2002 and 2012, 113 accidents and incidents occurred in the researched
segments of flight. In total, 57 (50 percent) accidents/incidents listed a CRM-related casual factor or included a similar commentary within
the analysis section of the investigation report. No statistically significant relationship existed between CRM-related accidents/incidents
About the Authors
Frank Wagener currently works for Aviation Performance
Solution
s LLC (APS), dba APS Emergency Maneuver Training, based at the Phoenix-Mesa
Gateway Airport in Mesa, Arizona. APS offers comprehensive LOC-I solutions via industry-leading, computer-based, on-aircraft, and advanced full-flight
simulator upset recovery and prevention training programs. Wagener spent over 20 years in the German Air Force flying fighter and fighter training aircraft
and retired in 2011. He flew and instructed in Germany, Canada, and the United States. He holds several international pilot certificates including ATP,
CPL, CFI, as well as a 737 type rating. He graduated with honors from the Master’s in Aeronautical Science Program at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University. Correspondence concerning this article should be sent to [email protected]
David C. Ison has been involved in the aviation industry for over 27 years, during which he has flown as a flight instructor and for both regional and
major airlines. He has experience in a wide variety of aircraft from general aviation types to heavy transport aircraft. While flying for a major airline, Ison
was assigned to fly missions all over the world in a Lockheed L-1011. Most recently, he flew Boeing 737–800 aircraft throughout North and Central
America. He worked as an associate professor of aviation for 7 years at a small college in Montana. He is currently Discipline Chair–Aeronautics and an
assistant professor of aeronautics for Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University–Worldwide. Ison has conducted extensive research concerning aviation
faculty, plagiarism in dissertations, statistics in aviation research, as well as the participation of women and minorities in aviation. His previo.
To predict the injury severity of an aircraft crash with the help of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) data since the year 1962 and design a classification model using machine learning algorithms.
Running Head: SAFETY IN AVIATION 0
SAFETY IN AVIATION 1
Safety in Aviation
Meshari Al-Shahin
Dr. Jennifer Nader
ERAU
Meshari Al-Shahin
1420 New Bellevue Ave
Daytona Beach, Fl 32114
Nov 6, 2018
Daniel Elwell
FAA
800 Independence Ave SW
Washington, DC 20591
Re: Safety in Aviation Submittal 1420 new Bellevue
Dear Mr. Elwell,
Enclosed is my aviation submission for safety in aviation at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. My project was on aviation safety and from the word go relied on quantitative studies. The PDF packet includes 9 pages and breaks down as follows:
1. The letter of transmittal: pg.2
2. Abstract: pg.3
3. Analytical paragraph: pg.5
4. Introduction and Background: pg.6
5. Recommendation: pg.9
6. Conclusion: pg.10
7. References: pg.11
Considering the nature of report, it is limited in scope to different structure and platforms; we expect some challenges in the completion of research topic due to the time factor. I fully expect a further research and analysis of data applying statistical tools. On top of that, the project calls for analysis and recommendation of the research. The memorandum is attached to show the job allocation and scheduling thus I would require more time as I shall rely upon qualitative and quantitative tools of research. Therefore, I would request for a special consideration of all my sections of the project.
I would like to go ahead with my project on safety in aviation. Kindly pay a close attention to the progressive report of the work done and offer any green light for the completion of the project. Your guidance would be appreciated to the latter. Moreover, let me know if you experience any difficulties with my files or anything that seems to be not in order. You can contact me anytime via email at [email protected].
Thanks for your concern in advance,
Meshari Al-Shahin
Meshari Al-Shahin
Abstract
This paper summarized various measures taken for safety in aviation and considered the various responsibilities assigned to different people to ensure that there is a safe flying environment. The paper tries to provide solutions to the aviation industry that are effective for the aviation industry and useful to the employees in the industry, as well as travellers and used a problem-solution analysis. The report was designed to offer viable solutions to the problems that have arisen due to the expansion of air transport. An in-depth analysis of the issues surrounding the aviation management systems as well as the individual contribution to the general operations is highly scrutinized. Weather and climatic conditions were included as part of this study as it has been linked a large number of deaths because of poor insight, which thus have led to accidents. The recommendations include that it is advisable for .
Running Head: SAFETY IN AVIATION 0
SAFETY IN AVIATION 1
Safety in Aviation
Meshari Al-Shahin
Dr. Jennifer Nader
ERAU
Meshari Al-Shahin
1420 New Bellevue Ave
Daytona Beach, Fl 32114
Nov 6, 2018
Daniel Elwell
FAA
800 Independence Ave SW
Washington, DC 20591
Re: Safety in Aviation Submittal 1420 new Bellevue
Dear Mr. Elwell,
Enclosed is my aviation submission for safety in aviation at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. My project was on aviation safety and from the word go relied on quantitative studies. The PDF packet includes 9 pages and breaks down as follows:
1. The letter of transmittal: pg.2
2. Abstract: pg.3
3. Analytical paragraph: pg.5
4. Introduction and Background: pg.6
5. Recommendation: pg.9
6. Conclusion: pg.10
7. References: pg.11
Considering the nature of report, it is limited in scope to different structure and platforms; we expect some challenges in the completion of research topic due to the time factor. I fully expect a further research and analysis of data applying statistical tools. On top of that, the project calls for analysis and recommendation of the research. The memorandum is attached to show the job allocation and scheduling thus I would require more time as I shall rely upon qualitative and quantitative tools of research. Therefore, I would request for a special consideration of all my sections of the project.
I would like to go ahead with my project on safety in aviation. Kindly pay a close attention to the progressive report of the work done and offer any green light for the completion of the project. Your guidance would be appreciated to the latter. Moreover, let me know if you experience any difficulties with my files or anything that seems to be not in order. You can contact me anytime via email at [email protected].
Thanks for your concern in advance,
Meshari Al-Shahin
Meshari Al-Shahin
Abstract
This paper summarized various measures taken for safety in aviation and considered the various responsibilities assigned to different people to ensure that there is a safe flying environment. The paper tries to provide solutions to the aviation industry that are effective for the aviation industry and useful to the employees in the industry, as well as travellers and used a problem-solution analysis. The report was designed to offer viable solutions to the problems that have arisen due to the expansion of air transport. An in-depth analysis of the issues surrounding the aviation management systems as well as the individual contribution to the general operations is highly scrutinized. Weather and climatic conditions were included as part of this study as it has been linked a large number of deaths because of poor insight, which thus have led to accidents. The recommendations include that it is advisable for .
Similar to The influence of adverse weather conditions on pilots’ behavior and decision making (20)
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlandsRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
A brief information about the SCOP protein database used in bioinformatics.
The Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) database is a comprehensive and authoritative resource for the structural and evolutionary relationships of proteins. It provides a detailed and curated classification of protein structures, grouping them into families, superfamilies, and folds based on their structural and sequence similarities.
Introduction:
RNA interference (RNAi) or Post-Transcriptional Gene Silencing (PTGS) is an important biological process for modulating eukaryotic gene expression.
It is highly conserved process of posttranscriptional gene silencing by which double stranded RNA (dsRNA) causes sequence-specific degradation of mRNA sequences.
dsRNA-induced gene silencing (RNAi) is reported in a wide range of eukaryotes ranging from worms, insects, mammals and plants.
This process mediates resistance to both endogenous parasitic and exogenous pathogenic nucleic acids, and regulates the expression of protein-coding genes.
What are small ncRNAs?
micro RNA (miRNA)
short interfering RNA (siRNA)
Properties of small non-coding RNA:
Involved in silencing mRNA transcripts.
Called “small” because they are usually only about 21-24 nucleotides long.
Synthesized by first cutting up longer precursor sequences (like the 61nt one that Lee discovered).
Silence an mRNA by base pairing with some sequence on the mRNA.
Discovery of siRNA?
The first small RNA:
In 1993 Rosalind Lee (Victor Ambros lab) was studying a non- coding gene in C. elegans, lin-4, that was involved in silencing of another gene, lin-14, at the appropriate time in the
development of the worm C. elegans.
Two small transcripts of lin-4 (22nt and 61nt) were found to be complementary to a sequence in the 3' UTR of lin-14.
Because lin-4 encoded no protein, she deduced that it must be these transcripts that are causing the silencing by RNA-RNA interactions.
Types of RNAi ( non coding RNA)
MiRNA
Length (23-25 nt)
Trans acting
Binds with target MRNA in mismatch
Translation inhibition
Si RNA
Length 21 nt.
Cis acting
Bind with target Mrna in perfect complementary sequence
Piwi-RNA
Length ; 25 to 36 nt.
Expressed in Germ Cells
Regulates trnasposomes activity
MECHANISM OF RNAI:
First the double-stranded RNA teams up with a protein complex named Dicer, which cuts the long RNA into short pieces.
Then another protein complex called RISC (RNA-induced silencing complex) discards one of the two RNA strands.
The RISC-docked, single-stranded RNA then pairs with the homologous mRNA and destroys it.
THE RISC COMPLEX:
RISC is large(>500kD) RNA multi- protein Binding complex which triggers MRNA degradation in response to MRNA
Unwinding of double stranded Si RNA by ATP independent Helicase
Active component of RISC is Ago proteins( ENDONUCLEASE) which cleave target MRNA.
DICER: endonuclease (RNase Family III)
Argonaute: Central Component of the RNA-Induced Silencing Complex (RISC)
One strand of the dsRNA produced by Dicer is retained in the RISC complex in association with Argonaute
ARGONAUTE PROTEIN :
1.PAZ(PIWI/Argonaute/ Zwille)- Recognition of target MRNA
2.PIWI (p-element induced wimpy Testis)- breaks Phosphodiester bond of mRNA.)RNAse H activity.
MiRNA:
The Double-stranded RNAs are naturally produced in eukaryotic cells during development, and they have a key role in regulating gene expression .
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...Sérgio Sacani
The ambient solar wind that flls the heliosphere originates from multiple
sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described
as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal
holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are
under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify
solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the
heliosphere. By combining magnetic feld modelling and spectroscopic
techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show
that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March
2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to
multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic feld footpoints
connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole
to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This
is refected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast
to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of
a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au
but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.
The increased availability of biomedical data, particularly in the public domain, offers the opportunity to better understand human health and to develop effective therapeutics for a wide range of unmet medical needs. However, data scientists remain stymied by the fact that data remain hard to find and to productively reuse because data and their metadata i) are wholly inaccessible, ii) are in non-standard or incompatible representations, iii) do not conform to community standards, and iv) have unclear or highly restricted terms and conditions that preclude legitimate reuse. These limitations require a rethink on data can be made machine and AI-ready - the key motivation behind the FAIR Guiding Principles. Concurrently, while recent efforts have explored the use of deep learning to fuse disparate data into predictive models for a wide range of biomedical applications, these models often fail even when the correct answer is already known, and fail to explain individual predictions in terms that data scientists can appreciate. These limitations suggest that new methods to produce practical artificial intelligence are still needed.
In this talk, I will discuss our work in (1) building an integrative knowledge infrastructure to prepare FAIR and "AI-ready" data and services along with (2) neurosymbolic AI methods to improve the quality of predictions and to generate plausible explanations. Attention is given to standards, platforms, and methods to wrangle knowledge into simple, but effective semantic and latent representations, and to make these available into standards-compliant and discoverable interfaces that can be used in model building, validation, and explanation. Our work, and those of others in the field, creates a baseline for building trustworthy and easy to deploy AI models in biomedicine.
Bio
Dr. Michel Dumontier is the Distinguished Professor of Data Science at Maastricht University, founder and executive director of the Institute of Data Science, and co-founder of the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) data principles. His research explores socio-technological approaches for responsible discovery science, which includes collaborative multi-modal knowledge graphs, privacy-preserving distributed data mining, and AI methods for drug discovery and personalized medicine. His work is supported through the Dutch National Research Agenda, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, Horizon Europe, the European Open Science Cloud, the US National Institutes of Health, and a Marie-Curie Innovative Training Network. He is the editor-in-chief for the journal Data Science and is internationally recognized for his contributions in bioinformatics, biomedical informatics, and semantic technologies including ontologies and linked data.
Seminar of U.V. Spectroscopy by SAMIR PANDASAMIR PANDA
Spectroscopy is a branch of science dealing the study of interaction of electromagnetic radiation with matter.
Ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy refers to absorption spectroscopy or reflect spectroscopy in the UV-VIS spectral region.
Ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy is an analytical method that can measure the amount of light received by the analyte.
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
The influence of adverse weather conditions on pilots’ behavior and decision making
1. The influence of adverse weather conditions on pilots’
behavior and decision-making
Berend Roosendaal
Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, Honours Programme Engineering
Noord-Holland, Netherlands
Abstract
This paper presents a summary of the international literature regarding pilots’ behavior under
adverse weather conditions. The literature also covers the influences on the decision-making
process of the pilot. The focus on this study is on pilots who fly solely in general aviation.
During the second half of the last century, the amount of private pilots has increased. Along
with this increase is the amount of fatal weather-related accidents. Weather related accident are
most common and consistent in situations where pilots fly from visual flight rules into
instrument meteorological conditions. The objective of this paper is to summarize the current
and previous studies concerning this subject and conclude what actually causes the event.
Current technologies and needs for prevention of the problem will be disucssed. The result of
this paper illustrates the direct and indirect factors that are related to weather related accidents
and how studies have tried to counter and influence this problem. Current studies revealed that
the psychological factor of the pilot during the decision-making process is essential in this
problem. An ultimate decision-making process would be to shift from the intuitive process to a
more analytical process. This will result in broader range of information that is used to perform
an accurate weather assessment, and to make a better decision.
Keywords: weather-related decision-making, debiasing, pilot behavior, general aviation
weather-related accidents
1. Introduction
It is common knowledge that adverse weather influences the aircraft. The safety and the
effective operation of an aircraft will be endangered by flying into adverse weather conditions.
Adverse weather conditions has a significant larger impact on general aviation (GA) than on
commercial flights. This is due to the type of aircraft, number of pilots and certifications of the
pilots. The most weather related cause of GA incidents are a result from an aircraft that flies
from visual flight rules (VFR) into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) or in other
words into instrument flight rules (IFR). In the US in 2011, 86% of VFR into IMC accidents
were fatal while other incident causal fatality rates were significantly lower. This high
percentage is primarily caused by the fact that most GA pilots have very limited training in
IMC, this limited training focuses on maintaining a minimum level of control of the aircraft,
and being able to return the aircraft to a straight and level condition. When flying into IMC the
pilot must rely upon the aircrafts instruments, this requires a higher level of training and skills.
Pilot that do not have this training and skill lack the psychomotor and cognitive skills necessary
for controlling the aircraft.
2. AUAS B. Roosendaal / Weather-related-, decision-making behavior 2017
2
Accidents happen when pilots make the decision to fly into IMC instead of changing the,
sometimes, safer option of diverting. It is importing to understand the influences on this decision
so that in the future measures, trainings etc. can be implemented for a better decision-making
process, which results in less hazardous situations. Inaccurate decision making by, in particular,
pilots in GA flying solo are caused by inexperience, bad attitude and cognitive biases. These
influences result in an inaccurate assessment of the weather conditions, a wrong or inappropriate
risk perception and/or motivational factors that can all potentially cause a pilot to fly into
adverse weather.
This paper focuses on the effects of adverse weather on the pilot behavior, particularly on
decision-making. Furthermore, the influences on this decision-making process and current
researches regarding these influences will be discussed. This paper does not consider a
difference between adverse weather conditions and IMC.
2. Literature review
2.1 Accidents
During the last decades, there has been a lot of research performed regarding this subject. Most
of the researches assessed a sample of pilots by examining the pilots in a simulation in which
weather conditions change. An accurate weather assessment is essential for adverse weather
situations, in most researches the weather assessments of the pilots were based on the visibility
and cloud height assessment. The minima for flying VFR according the FAA are three statue
miles flight visibility, a clearance of 1,000 and 500 feet respectively above and below, and a
2,000 feet horizontal distance from clouds (NTSB 2005).
As already discussed, the primary cause for weather-related decision making in accidents is a
combination of in-experience, in appropriate attitude or cognitive bias. One of the core elements
of decision-making is information. Thus, a difficulty in information acquisition, information
interpretation, integration can result in an inaccurate weather assessment.
Study reveals that only 45% of the pilots whom encounter adverse weather, actually
talks to a weather briefer or seek help from air traffic control (ATC) (Hunter, Martinussen et al.
2011). The decision to fly into adverse weather is obviously pilot dependent; study reveals that
there are commonalities in pilot characteristics that avoid adverse weather. Pilots avoiding
adverse weather are more likely to have more instrument time, have the availability of an
autopilot, a longer duration of flights and, a larger use of the telephone briefer.
Unfortunately, there is an unwanted side effect of flying into the adverse weather and
surviving without any problems and consequences for a pilot with a lack of instrument rating.
Every time nothing seriously happens, the pilot may grow overconfident until the pilot
encounters a situation where the demands exceeds their capabilities. Another research
determined that approximately 7.5% of VFR flights into IMC that resulted in an accident were
caused by this overconfidence bias.(Goh, Wiegmann 2001) The overconfidence is one of the
many cognitive biases that influences decision-making. The effects of confidence bias
unfortunately can be catastrophic therefore; the chain effect must be broken.
Another possible effect of the overconfidence bias is the lack in appreciation of the risks
involved in the actions of the pilot. If the pilot do not appreciate the real danger, it could cause
a pilot to continue the flight into adverse weather.
Some psychological characteristics of the pilot, such as overconfidence, are
scientifically proven different for pilots who fly into IMC compared with pilots who decide not
3. AUAS B. Roosendaal / Weather-related-, decision-making behavior 2017
3
to. Pilots that do fly into IMC have a higher self-rating of skill and judgement, and overestimate
visibility while pilots that do not fly into IMC had a higher estimate of the likelihood that
weather would be the cause of an accident.(Goh, Wiegmann 2001).
Interestingly is that, despite the danger of VFR pilots flying into IMC it remains a problem in
GA. This problem is already known for a long time, initially researches were focused on pilot
demographics, and operational and geographical factors while currently the focus lies more on
the psychological factors since the aircraft and pilot training have become more safe and reliable
(Walmsley, Gilbey 2017)
2.2 Decision-making
Considering the psychological part, inappropriate decision-making can be caused by multiple
cognitive biases. The continuation, anchoring and confirmation bias has been researched as
most influencing in decision-making while approaching adverse weather. The continuation
bias, in other words motivational factor, is unconsciously continuing with the original plan
despite changing conditions. Pilots tend to rely too much on the initial piece of information
(anchor) however, while situations and circumstances change this may result in under-adjusting
the current available information. The confirmation bias is hazardous because humans are
affected by it all the time; pilots tend to favour confirmative evidence that supports the
hypothesis or expectation, instead of looking at all the information available. What the last two
biases have in common is that pilots have the tendency to look at a too narrow range of
information.
Since these cognitive biases could cause a pilot to make a hazardous decision, a lot of
research have been performed to understand the cognitive biases with the goal to prevent them
from happening (debiasing) which could result in a more critical decision-making. The
principle of debiasing lies within changing from mode 1 (intuitive) to mode 2 (analytical)
(Walmsley, Gilbey 2017). Mode 1 tend to use heuristics and is used unconsciously, meaning
automatic and fast. The shortcoming however, is that, cognitive biases can affect this type of
decision-making. The utility of cues is connected to mode 1. A cue is signal that triggers the
pilot to act; this signal aids the memory with retrieving details that are not recalled
spontaneously. The utility of cues result in more time and cognitive resources for other
decisions. (Wiggings, Azar et al. 2014), this study concludes that a higher cue utility result in a
more likelihood of flying into adverse weather. Cue utility in the adverse weather conditions is
rather unusual because of the dynamic conditions, with weather in different forms and, the speed
of the aircraft requires decision-making in short-time period. Mode 2 is used more conscious
and therefore more controlled but this results in a higher cognitive workload. An optimal
balance between these would be a shift from mode 1 to a slow mode 2. Debiasing techniques
aim for this balance.
2.3 Techniques to influence psychological deficiencies
One of these techniques is “consider the alternative,” this technique encourages a person to look
at a broader range of information. This technique has been proven, by research, successful in
reducing overconfidence bias, hindsight bias, confirmation bias and anchoring bias.
Unfortunately, research has also proven the contrary: an unsuccessful debiasing and even a
stronger effect of the initial cognitive bias. A recent study (Walmsley, Gilbey 2017) using this
technique to reduce the anchoring and conformation bias has again showed unsuccessful, this
results implicates that there is a need to explore other debiasing technique. Other techniques
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that has proven successful are more intrusive, this however, is again difficult to implement in
the dynamic, high workload environment of a cockpit.
Besides training there are at least three other potential measure described that affect cognitive
biases: proceduralization, automation and decision support tools, and display and information.
Proceduralization is likely to reduce some of the cognitive biases, such as, confirmation bias.
However, the anchoring bias e.g. is not effectively affected by this method. This method also
relies on an accurate perception of weather conditions, and is impracticable to fully implement.
Automation and decision support tools have the purpose to reduce the workload and therefore
result in more capability to focus on mode 2 instead of the fast mode 1 of decision-making.
Display and information has the primary focus on generating a richer flow of information. Not
only improving weather related systems helps but also improving e.g. navigation systems helps
by reducing the workload of navigation and thus, more cognitive resources for other tasks. This
can be accomplished by e.g. a more advanced display. One disadvantage of more advanced
displays is that the pilot may be spending more time looking inside the cockpit instead of the
outside.
NASA just claimed their patent on a new system. This system is capable of displaying
aircraft trajectory and weather forecast with the benefit that the predicted aircraft position is
displayed relative to the predicted weather planning. This system has on top off all option for a
two-dimensional, 3-dimensional and a potential 4-dimensional display (Johnson, Wong et al.
2017).
Besides new system inventions, the weather display symbology also affects the pilot
behavior. Display symbology research concluded that information is better recalled when the
information is displayed in both text and symbols. Along with the introduction of symbols
comes the colour of the symbols. Colour preference is not for all individuals equal. In colour
change however, are better perceived commonalities. Colour change from white to red, for
example, is better perceived than other combinations. Confusion on the other hand, is
disadvantage of the usage of colours, deviation from safety colours and other familiar colour
schemes can cause misinterpretation. Besides that study shows, display symbology, high-
resolution display and others results in closer proximity to adverse weather areas (Ulf Ahlstrom
2015).
Besides the effect of adverse weather on decision-making. The adverse weather also affects the
pilots’ eye behavior. When pilots face unexpected conditions the eye behavior changes. Pilots
tend to look more outside the window instead of inside the cockpit to the instruments due to the
limited training they have had. This may result in missing relevant information. The visual
attention is individual-dependent. No matter the outside conditions pilot focus more times on
outside view than on other areas of interest (AOI). When pilots do focus, on the instruments,
they tend to focus more to the primary flight display instead of the back-up display and pilots
pay more intention to the GPS than other primary displays. When pilots encounter adverse
weather the pilots look more to the outside view than instruments, and they check the PFD more
than the back-up instruments. After encountering adverse weather, they looked more to the
directional gyro (DG). This makes sense since it confirms the direction of the aircraft.
2.4 Limitations
One study is based on a self-report questionnaire; a questionnaire’s reliability is vulnerable to
misinterpretation, wrong recall of events, deliberate distortions. Other simulating studies are
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limited by the extend to which a simulation equals the real world-circumstances, such as, use
of static images etc. Generalizability is a problem; does the sample of pilot really represent the
actual pilot behavior?
3. Discussion of the findings from the literature
3.1 General discussion fatality rate GA weather-related accidents
Interesting is the percentage of fatality in all of the weather-related accidents in GA. Between
1990 and 1997 the fatality percentage was 75%, a percentage well above other fatality rates.
This is due to the lower level of training and skill of most GA pilots with IMC. Although
instrument training is a part of the pilot license, there are still some requirements, which must
be fulfilled before a pilot, is authorized to fly into weather conditions below the VFR minima;
the aircraft must be rated for IFR and the pilot must have an IR rating. Thus if a pilot who is
only rated for VFR faces adverse weather and has no other option than flying into the
deteriorating weather conditions, forced to fly IMC, he is unauthorized and untrained. This
discussion raises the question: how is it still possible that a pilot can unauthorized and, more
important, untrained, end up in a hazardous situation that has shown to be fatal? The main
answer to this question is the expensive ratings and trainings. However, this raises another
question: what is more important safety or costs? How much is the safety worth? This ethical
question might be always be unanswered, but it illustrates one of the main problems of this
subject. Reflecting on this part, the overconfidence bias has a specific role in this matter. In the
US many pilot fly only VFR due to the expensive costs for ratings. A huge factor is the thought
about VFR into IMC accidents “this won’t happen to me,” this particular thought is an
overconfidence bias and might be one of the major causes of these accidents.
Even more interesting is the behavior of that percentage over time, found in the literature. In
2007, the percentage was 73% (lowered) while in 2011 the percentage was 86% (risen). This
rise in percentage might come due to the increased cognitive biases among GA pilots described
previously. This is unfortunately because all of the research regarding this subject before 2011
had apparently no effect on the current pilots. This statement is supported by the following fact,
all of the surveyed pilots without an IR seemed able to survive brief encounters with adverse
weather (Hunter, Martinussen et al. 2011). This statement implicates that it does not matter
whether pilots have an IR or not.
3.2 What happens to the pilots whom are facing adverse weather and have to make the
decision?
Pilots who are approaching adverse weather behave different to this unexpected condition. The
pilots’ history plays a role in these situations. The general behavior is different for pilots who
have: already encountered similar conditions once, have instrument rating, and other criteria
such as e.g. age. These factors do not directly help for generating measures that can prevent this
problem. The outcomes of these studies do help by selecting the type of pilots where measures
have the greatest effect.
However, the reliability of the outcomes is important is this matter, with respect to the
generalizability of the results. Typical samples for the researches were 57, 24, 30 and 64 pilots.
In my opinion these sample are quite low, and since in most of the researches pilots volunteer
to participate in the research. Therefore, the outcomes are by definition not generalizable.
Besides that most of the researches and therefore the sample of pilots originate from the US,
the US does represent a huge percentage of the weather-related accidents but obviously not the
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entire GA industry. Ethnic difference has an influence on the behavior of humans and therefore
pilots. This is also the part were again, the overconfidence bias is influenced, in the sense of the
magnitude of the bias.
The general behavior of the pilot changes with unexpected condition, research implies that
pilots felt a bit tense and anxious during the event of flying into IMC, and after the event pilots
felt more cautious about weather (Hunter, Martinussen et al. 2011). One of the different
behaviors is that pilot contact weather briefers, which is a good resource to find accurate and
up-to-date information which helps assessing the weather. Unfortunately, only 45% talked to a
weather briefer in adverse weather and 57% near adverse weather (Hunter, Martinussen et al.
2011). If this ratio would be, higher pilots in general could have a more accurate weather
assessment.
Cue-utilization is another effect that the weather has on pilots. Pilots with a higher level of cue-
utilization were more likely to fly into adverse weather. Therefore, logics would say that a
training regarding cue-utilization should be effective. The aim for training would be to identify
the specific cues and “tune” the actions associated with the cue (Wiggings, Azar et al. 2014).
This could result in a higher skill in the acquisition of information, one of the key elements of
decision-making. Connected to cue-utilization is the behavior of the pilots’ eye (Russi-Vigoya,
Patterson 2015). Concluded in this study is that pilots look more to the outside view instead of
inside the cockpit. This means that the cues inside the cockpit are less noted by pilots, provided
that, they fly solely. The method of the study however, questions the quality of the outcome. As
simulator Microsoft Flight Simulator was used in combination with a 46-inch screen, this does
hardly simulate the real environments in a cockpit.
The psychological issues affect the behavior of the pilot in terms of cognitive biases and
risk perceptions. These factors lead to the decision to fly from VFR into IMC. Many studied
these factors but an appropriate effective training is to be found yet. The difficulty with this
problem lies within the limitations in simulation reality, training of cognitive behavior and
practicability within the dynamic cockpit environment.
3.3 Measures preventing the influences on decision making
Most research nowadays focus on broadening the range of information that reaches the pilot for
a better assessment. Besides that, research also focuses on debiasing techniques. Broaden the
range of information can be accomplished by enrichening the information flow, a wider
spectrum of information, this however results in a higher cognitive workload, and removing
cognitive workload from other system results in more cognitive resources for weather related
decision-making (Walmsley, Gilbey 2017). Improving weather related displays will enrichen
the flow of information while improving other systems related displays will reduce those
systems related cognitive workload. Investigating on symbology is a solid method to enrichen
the information without compromising anything, provided that, the symbology will not confuse
the pilot. Debiasing techniques have proven successful in other sectors than aviation but have
also proven unsuccessful.
The big problem I have with the results of researches that investigate biases or debiasing
techniques is that most of the outcomes are similar to one of the following three answers: “this
may be successful”, “this could be effective” or “more research is necessary”. This problem is
related to the already discussed dynamic cockpit environment, difficulty in implementation.
Another new factor influence the outcomes also. Researches imply that they have failed because
the method was incomplete in terms of investigating all possible effective outcomes. E.g.,
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(Walmsley, Gilbey 2017) stated that the method could have possibly failed because the
debiasing technique was only introduced brief and passive. I believe that this uncertainty in
outcomes and limitations is a significant factor in unsuccessful researches, in terms of the
wanted outcome.
4. Conclusion
Statistics prove that weather-related accidents are consistent and have a high rate compared to
other type of accidents. Fatality among the VFR into IMC accident is unusual high and is
apparently difficult to lower. The main problem for the accidents to happen is the lack of
experience and skill by pilot who fly seldom and unauthorized into IMC. Before entering
adverse weather conditions, the pilot has to make the most important decision: continue into the
adverse weather or divert with the accompanied consequences. The decision-making process is
influenced by many discussed factors. Most significant factors are cognitive biases, but
eventually it boils down to an inaccurate weather assessment or inappropriate risk perception.
To improve this, pilots must improve information acquisition, interpretation and integration to
form accurate, analytically (mode 2) based conclusions. Current effective methods are enhanced
displays and symbology perfection, these enrichen the information and can reduce the cognitive
workload. Techniques that are focused in countering the psychological “errors” lack a sufficient
proof of effectiveness and practicable implementation options. Unfortunately, as many studies
conclude, there is still a need to for effective methods that counter the deficiencies of the
decision-making process.
5. Relevance for practice and the Aviation academy
This paper summarizes the current state of pilot behavior, decision-making during adverse
weather conditions, and studies regarding the influences on those decision-making, on top of
that the paper discusses current technologies related to pilots’ behavior. Future research may
use this paper to identify the success and failures of the subject. Identifies success can be
investigated why they succeeded and use the result of investigation to improve the failures. The
Aviation Academy may use this paper to be triggered in this subject and may even implement
the associated problems into research or courses.
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6. References
GOH, J. and WIEGMANN, D., 2001. An Investigation of the Factors that Contribute to Pilots
Decisions to Continue Visual Flight Rules Flight into Adverse Weather. Human Factors and
Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting Proceedings, 45(2), pp. 26-29.
HUNTER, D.R., MARTINUSSEN, M., WIGGINS, M. and O’HARE, D., 2011. Situational and
personal characteristics associated with adverse weather encounters by pilots. Accident Analysis
and Prevention, 43(1), pp. 176-186.
JOHNSON, WONG, D.W., WU, S. and KOTESKY, R.W., 2017. (12) United States Patent.
Washington, D. C: .
NTSB, 2005. Risk Factors Associated with Weather-Related
General Aviation Accidents. Washington, D. C: .
RUSSI-VIGOYA, M.N. and PATTERSON, P., 2015. Analysis of Pilot Eye Behavior during
Glass Cockpit Simulations. Procedia Manufacturing, 3, pp. 5028-5035.
ULF AHLSTROM, 2015. Weather display symbology affects pilot behavior and decision-
making. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 50, pp. 73.
WALMSLEY, S. and GILBEY, A., 2017. Debiasing visual pilot's weather-related decision
making. Oxford: Elsevier.
WIGGINGS, M.W., AZAR, D., HAWKEN, J., LOVEDAY, T. and NEWMAN, D., 2014. Cue-
utilisation typologies and pilots’ pre-flight and in-flight weather
decision-making. Amsterdam [u.a.]: Elsevier.