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BAPPENAS




                                               Workshop to Launch
UNDP’s Regional Synthesis Report on Global Financial Crisis and Asia‐
                                                      Pacific Region
                               ISEAS‐Singapore, 30 November 2009 
dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com   2
Overview of Presentation
                                                        BAPPENAS




 OVERVIEW OF MACROECONOMIC IMPACT
 SOCIAL IMPACT OF CRISIS
 RESPONDING TO THE CRISIS
  • Fiscal Stimulus
  • Social Protection
 WAY FORWARD
  • Tracking Vulnerabilities and Early Warning System




                     dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com              3
Macroeconomic Overview
                                                                             BAPPENAS




 When the international crisis hit the world, Indonesia’s overall economic 
  situation was promising.
 Prior to the crisis, the country witnessed strong growth, peaking in mid 
  2008 with 6.4% growth.
 The export sector boomed due to the world commodity boom.
 Budget deficits remained low and external debt ratios declined from 
  almost 90% in 2000 to about 33% at the end of 2008.
 Since the last crisis, Indonesia has also introduced several social protection 
  mechanisms. 
 This all assisted the country in dealing with the crisis and in mitigating its 
  impact on the economy as the next few slide will show.



                                dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                         4
Macroeconomic Overview
                                                                                             BAPPENAS




               Pre‐crisis: strong economic growth and performance
                                         GDP Growth (% )

              8                                                                        6.3    6.1
                                       5.4                                 5.7   5.5
                   4.7                                          4.7    5
                                                       4.4
                                              3.8
              3
                                 0.8
(y-o-y, %)




              -2
               97

               98

               99

               00

               01

               02

               03

               04

               05

               06

               07

               08
             19

             19

             19

             20

             20

             20

             20

             20

             20

             20

             20

             20
              -7


             -12
                         -13.1

             -17

                                         dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                                5
Macroeconomic Impact of Crisis             
                                                              BAPPENAS


 Decline from Q4 2008 onwards but still positive with growth (y‐
  o‐y) 2009: 4.0% in QII, 4.2% in QIII
 Modest impact on remittances
 In Sept. 2008 Stock Exchange Index dropped but since QI foreign 
  capital inflows resumed 
 Since beginning 2009 most economic indicators   strengthened 
  again
  • Strong domestic (private and public) consumption          main 
     driver of growth
  • Consumer confidence high
  • Recovery of industrial activity

                         dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com             6
Macroeconomic Impact
                                                                   BAPPENAS




 As you can see from the graph, prior to the crisis Indonesia’s
  export performance has been strong due to the world
  commodity boom.
 Export growth declined from QIII onwards, followed by falling
  imports in QI 2009.
 However, export growth resumed already in May 2009.




                            dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                  7
(y-o-y, %)
                                                      Ja
                                                         n,




                                               -60
                                                     -40
                                                             -20
                                                                     0
                                                                         20
                                                                              40
                                                                                   60
                                                                                        80
                                                                                             100
                                                                                                   120
                                                     Fe 200
                                                         b, 8
                                                     M 200
                                                        ar
                                                           , 8
                                                     Ap 200
                                                         r,      8
                                                     M 20 0
                                                        ay 8
                                                           ,
                                                      J u 200
                                                         n, 8
                                                             2
                                                       J u 00
                                                          l, 8
                                                     Au 20
                                                         g, 08
                                                     Se 200
                                                         p, 8
                                                      O 200
                                                        ct
                                                          ,2 8
                                                     N 00
                                                        ov       8
                                                           ,
                                                     D 20
                                                        ec 08




                              Export Grow th
                                                           ,
                                                      J a 200
                                                         n, 8




dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com
                                                     Fe 200
                                                         b, 9
                                                     M 200
                                                        ar
                                                           ,2 9
                                                     Ap 00
                                                         r,      9
                                                     M 20 0
                              Import Grow th

                                                        ay 9
                                                                                                         Export and Import Growth, 2008-2009 (y-o-y, %)




                                                           ,
                                                      J u 200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Macroeconomic Impact




                                                         n, 9
                                                             2
                                                       J u 009
                                                          l,
                                                     Au 20
                                                         g, 09
                                                     Se 20
                                                                                                                                                          Main Transmission Channel: Export and Imports




                                                        p t 09
                                                            ,2
                                                               00
                                                                 9
8
                                                                                                                                                                                                          BAPPENAS
A Reflection of Impact of 
                 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis                         BAPPENAS



 Before going into detail about the social impact of the current crisis, it
  is useful to go back to the impact of the 1997/1998 crisis.
 In the 1997/98 crisis Indonesia’s economy contracted by nearly 14%.
 The impact of the crisis was compounded by the El Nino phenomenon
  leading to drought and a shortfall in rice production, while the instable
  political climate in the wake of the fall of the Suharto regime
  complicated the formulation and implementation of mitigation policies.
 As you can see from the graph, poverty increased rapidly, reaching
  33.2% in late 1998 and then gradually falling again. Common coping
  strategies included cutting down on food consumption, moving into
  informality and agriculture, reducing spending on health care and
  education. As a result school attendance rates dropped, particularly at
  the secondary level and many people stopped attending health care
  centres.

                               dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                     9
A Reflection of Impact of 
                    1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis                                                  BAPPENAS




            Poverty Rates between Feb. 1996 and Feb. 2002
35
                                                  33.2

30
                                           28.0
                                                                27.1
25
                                  24.1
                                                         22.9          22.3

20
                                                                              18.1
               15.3 15.4   17.4                                    18.7               15.5
     18.7
15
                                                                               14.2          10.3
                                                                                                           13.1
10


 5


 0



                                     dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                                         10
Poverty and Vulnerability
                                                                    BAPPENAS




 While poverty rates since then have been falling to pre-crisis levels,
  there is a very high clustering around the poverty line – as you can see
  from the graph. More than half of the population in Indonesia lives
  below US$2/day.
 These households are facing a very high probability of becoming
  tomorrow’s poor during an economic crisis or as a result of an
  exogenous shock.




                             dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                 11
Poverty and Vulnerability
                                                                      BAPPENAS



  Large Number of Indonesians Vulnerable to Poverty




                                             59.3% below US$2/day

US$2/day (PPP)


                                                            US$1/day (PPP)
        10.4% below US$1/day



                        dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                          12
Percentage of Poor People
                                                    BAPPENAS




      There are wide disparities in Indonesia with
       poverty rates particularly alarming in the East of
       the country and Aceh.
      However, in terms of absolute numbers, most of
       the poor are concentrated in Java and Sumatra.
       dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                      13
Current Crisis – Impact on Poor
                  Preliminary Findings                         BAPPENAS




 Preliminary findings show that overall social impact of crisis 
  limited 
 Workers in export‐oriented manufacturing   most affected 
  but overall employment in manufacturing grew
 Unemployment rates continue to decline
 Food insecurity levels, however, remain high and make 
  many susceptible to increases in food prices




                          dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com               14
Government Response
                                                            BAPPENAS




Fiscal Stimulus Package
 To strengthen and maintain stability of domestic financial 
   sector
 To stabilize and stimulate domestic economy by fiscal 
   expansion in 2009

Social Protection Mechanisms
 Rice for the poor (RASKIN)
 Community Empowerment Programme (PNPM)
 Cash transfers (BLT, etc.)


                        dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com              15
Government Response –
                              Fiscal Stimulus                                     BAPPENAS


Stimulus Package 2009 (In IDR Trillion)
                                  Description                                 IDR Trillion
 1 Tax Savings                                                                           43
   Reductions in Income Tax Rates:                                                       32
              Lower Corporate Tax Rate                                                18.5
              Lower Personal Income Tax rate                                          13.5
   Income tax-free band raised to IDR 15.8 million                                       11
 2 Tax /Import Duty Subsidies for Business/Targeted Households                        13.3
              VAT on oil/gas exploration, cooking oil                                   3.5
              Import duties on raw materials and capital goods                          2.5
              Payroll tax                                                               6.5
              Geothermal tax                                                            0.8
 3 Pro-business/Jobs subsidies + budget expenditures                                     15
              Reduced price for automotive diesel                                       2.8
              Discounted electricity billing rates for industrial users                 1.4
              Additional infrastructure expenditures + subsidies + government         12.2
              equity injection
              Upscaling of Community Block Grants (PNPM)                                0.6
Total Stimulus                                                                        73.3
                                     dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                      16
   Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2008
Establishing a Crisis Monitoring System
                                                                BAPPENAS




 Establishment of crisis monitoring and response system
   • To understand the impact of crisis on vulnerable 
   • To undertake appropriate, targeted and effective policy 
      response
 Ongoing data collection activities include
   • Crisis impact household survey (World Bank/BPS)
   • Pilot food security and nutrition monitoring survey 
      (WFP/UNICEF/ILO)
   • Qualitative studies
   • Regional assessments

                        dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com              17
Beyond the Crisis
                                                           BAPPENAS




 Impact of global crisis less severe than anticipated
 Current economic crisis intersects with food price crisis, 
  follows fuel price crisis
 Different crises show that policy makers lack data to design 
  and target response in timely manner
 Setting up a crisis impact and vulnerability monitoring and 
  response system
 Preparing for future crises/ exogenous shocks ‐ early warning 
  system 
 Building a sustainable system 
 Linking monitoring with response

                        dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com            18
Monitoring Vulnerabilities
                                                                 BAPPENAS




 The system seeks to track vulnerabilities across multiple
  dimensions of distress and will focus on vulnerabilities caused or
  exacerbated by external shocks.
 A simple, manageable indicator framework is being developed with
  both, lower frequency, ‘contextual’ indicators drawn from existing
  data bases and higher frequency, ‘pulse’ indicators drawn from
  ongoing qualitative and quantitative assessments.
 As you may know, on the global level the UN, on request of the
  G20, is setting up a Global Impact and Vulnerability System
  (GIVAS) which envisions to include similar data and analysis on
  the global level.
 For those interested, we have provided the web addresses of our
  evolving website as well as the one of GIVAS.


                          dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                  19
Monitoring Vulnerabilities
                                                                               BAPPENAS




                            MDGs/Human
                            Development
                             Indicators
                                (DevInfo, BPS,
     Disaster                      UNDP)
       Risk
   Vulnerability                                        Monitoring Response/
    Indicators                                            Social Protection
   (DESINVENTAR)                                              Schemes
                                VULNERABILITY                 PNPM, etc.

                                 INDICATORS


Macro Indicators (early 
  warning/ transmission                               Crisis Impact
         channels)                                     Indicators
Bank of Indonesia, IMF, BPS,                         Food Insecurity
           MoF                                       (BPS/WB survey;
                                                  UNICEF/WFP/ILO; JICA))

                                dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com                         20
BAPPENAS




                      Thank You
       for further information on Indonesia:
        www.vulnerabilitywatch.web.id/v1/

for further information on Global Impact and 
           Vulnerability Alert System (GIVAS):
              www.voicesofthevulnerable.net




                        dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com        21
Tentang Narasumber




     dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com   22

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The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Indonesia

  • 1. BAPPENAS Workshop to Launch UNDP’s Regional Synthesis Report on Global Financial Crisis and Asia‐ Pacific Region ISEAS‐Singapore, 30 November 2009 
  • 3. Overview of Presentation BAPPENAS  OVERVIEW OF MACROECONOMIC IMPACT  SOCIAL IMPACT OF CRISIS  RESPONDING TO THE CRISIS • Fiscal Stimulus • Social Protection  WAY FORWARD • Tracking Vulnerabilities and Early Warning System dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 3
  • 4. Macroeconomic Overview BAPPENAS  When the international crisis hit the world, Indonesia’s overall economic  situation was promising.  Prior to the crisis, the country witnessed strong growth, peaking in mid  2008 with 6.4% growth.  The export sector boomed due to the world commodity boom.  Budget deficits remained low and external debt ratios declined from  almost 90% in 2000 to about 33% at the end of 2008.  Since the last crisis, Indonesia has also introduced several social protection  mechanisms.   This all assisted the country in dealing with the crisis and in mitigating its  impact on the economy as the next few slide will show. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 4
  • 5. Macroeconomic Overview BAPPENAS Pre‐crisis: strong economic growth and performance GDP Growth (% ) 8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.7 5.5 4.7 4.7 5 4.4 3.8 3 0.8 (y-o-y, %) -2 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 -7 -12 -13.1 -17 dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 5
  • 6. Macroeconomic Impact of Crisis              BAPPENAS  Decline from Q4 2008 onwards but still positive with growth (y‐ o‐y) 2009: 4.0% in QII, 4.2% in QIII  Modest impact on remittances  In Sept. 2008 Stock Exchange Index dropped but since QI foreign  capital inflows resumed   Since beginning 2009 most economic indicators   strengthened  again • Strong domestic (private and public) consumption          main  driver of growth • Consumer confidence high • Recovery of industrial activity dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 6
  • 7. Macroeconomic Impact BAPPENAS  As you can see from the graph, prior to the crisis Indonesia’s export performance has been strong due to the world commodity boom.  Export growth declined from QIII onwards, followed by falling imports in QI 2009.  However, export growth resumed already in May 2009. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 7
  • 8. (y-o-y, %) Ja n, -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Fe 200 b, 8 M 200 ar , 8 Ap 200 r, 8 M 20 0 ay 8 , J u 200 n, 8 2 J u 00 l, 8 Au 20 g, 08 Se 200 p, 8 O 200 ct ,2 8 N 00 ov 8 , D 20 ec 08 Export Grow th , J a 200 n, 8 dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com Fe 200 b, 9 M 200 ar ,2 9 Ap 00 r, 9 M 20 0 Import Grow th ay 9 Export and Import Growth, 2008-2009 (y-o-y, %) , J u 200 Macroeconomic Impact n, 9 2 J u 009 l, Au 20 g, 09 Se 20 Main Transmission Channel: Export and Imports p t 09 ,2 00 9 8 BAPPENAS
  • 9. A Reflection of Impact of  1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis BAPPENAS  Before going into detail about the social impact of the current crisis, it is useful to go back to the impact of the 1997/1998 crisis.  In the 1997/98 crisis Indonesia’s economy contracted by nearly 14%.  The impact of the crisis was compounded by the El Nino phenomenon leading to drought and a shortfall in rice production, while the instable political climate in the wake of the fall of the Suharto regime complicated the formulation and implementation of mitigation policies.  As you can see from the graph, poverty increased rapidly, reaching 33.2% in late 1998 and then gradually falling again. Common coping strategies included cutting down on food consumption, moving into informality and agriculture, reducing spending on health care and education. As a result school attendance rates dropped, particularly at the secondary level and many people stopped attending health care centres. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 9
  • 10. A Reflection of Impact of  1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis BAPPENAS Poverty Rates between Feb. 1996 and Feb. 2002 35 33.2 30 28.0 27.1 25 24.1 22.9 22.3 20 18.1 15.3 15.4 17.4 18.7 15.5 18.7 15 14.2 10.3 13.1 10 5 0 dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 10
  • 11. Poverty and Vulnerability BAPPENAS  While poverty rates since then have been falling to pre-crisis levels, there is a very high clustering around the poverty line – as you can see from the graph. More than half of the population in Indonesia lives below US$2/day.  These households are facing a very high probability of becoming tomorrow’s poor during an economic crisis or as a result of an exogenous shock. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 11
  • 12. Poverty and Vulnerability BAPPENAS Large Number of Indonesians Vulnerable to Poverty 59.3% below US$2/day US$2/day (PPP) US$1/day (PPP) 10.4% below US$1/day dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 12
  • 13. Percentage of Poor People BAPPENAS  There are wide disparities in Indonesia with poverty rates particularly alarming in the East of the country and Aceh.  However, in terms of absolute numbers, most of the poor are concentrated in Java and Sumatra. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 13
  • 14. Current Crisis – Impact on Poor Preliminary Findings BAPPENAS  Preliminary findings show that overall social impact of crisis  limited   Workers in export‐oriented manufacturing   most affected  but overall employment in manufacturing grew  Unemployment rates continue to decline  Food insecurity levels, however, remain high and make  many susceptible to increases in food prices dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 14
  • 15. Government Response BAPPENAS Fiscal Stimulus Package  To strengthen and maintain stability of domestic financial  sector  To stabilize and stimulate domestic economy by fiscal  expansion in 2009 Social Protection Mechanisms  Rice for the poor (RASKIN)  Community Empowerment Programme (PNPM)  Cash transfers (BLT, etc.) dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 15
  • 16. Government Response – Fiscal Stimulus BAPPENAS Stimulus Package 2009 (In IDR Trillion) Description IDR Trillion 1 Tax Savings 43 Reductions in Income Tax Rates: 32 Lower Corporate Tax Rate 18.5 Lower Personal Income Tax rate 13.5 Income tax-free band raised to IDR 15.8 million 11 2 Tax /Import Duty Subsidies for Business/Targeted Households 13.3 VAT on oil/gas exploration, cooking oil 3.5 Import duties on raw materials and capital goods 2.5 Payroll tax 6.5 Geothermal tax 0.8 3 Pro-business/Jobs subsidies + budget expenditures 15 Reduced price for automotive diesel 2.8 Discounted electricity billing rates for industrial users 1.4 Additional infrastructure expenditures + subsidies + government 12.2 equity injection Upscaling of Community Block Grants (PNPM) 0.6 Total Stimulus 73.3 dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 16 Source: Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2008
  • 17. Establishing a Crisis Monitoring System BAPPENAS  Establishment of crisis monitoring and response system • To understand the impact of crisis on vulnerable  • To undertake appropriate, targeted and effective policy  response  Ongoing data collection activities include • Crisis impact household survey (World Bank/BPS) • Pilot food security and nutrition monitoring survey  (WFP/UNICEF/ILO) • Qualitative studies • Regional assessments dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 17
  • 18. Beyond the Crisis BAPPENAS  Impact of global crisis less severe than anticipated  Current economic crisis intersects with food price crisis,  follows fuel price crisis  Different crises show that policy makers lack data to design  and target response in timely manner  Setting up a crisis impact and vulnerability monitoring and  response system  Preparing for future crises/ exogenous shocks ‐ early warning  system   Building a sustainable system   Linking monitoring with response dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 18
  • 19. Monitoring Vulnerabilities BAPPENAS  The system seeks to track vulnerabilities across multiple dimensions of distress and will focus on vulnerabilities caused or exacerbated by external shocks.  A simple, manageable indicator framework is being developed with both, lower frequency, ‘contextual’ indicators drawn from existing data bases and higher frequency, ‘pulse’ indicators drawn from ongoing qualitative and quantitative assessments.  As you may know, on the global level the UN, on request of the G20, is setting up a Global Impact and Vulnerability System (GIVAS) which envisions to include similar data and analysis on the global level.  For those interested, we have provided the web addresses of our evolving website as well as the one of GIVAS. dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 19
  • 20. Monitoring Vulnerabilities BAPPENAS MDGs/Human Development Indicators (DevInfo, BPS, Disaster UNDP) Risk Vulnerability Monitoring Response/ Indicators Social Protection (DESINVENTAR) Schemes VULNERABILITY  PNPM, etc. INDICATORS Macro Indicators (early  warning/ transmission  Crisis Impact channels) Indicators Bank of Indonesia, IMF, BPS,  Food Insecurity MoF (BPS/WB survey; UNICEF/WFP/ILO; JICA)) dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 20
  • 21. BAPPENAS Thank You for further information on Indonesia: www.vulnerabilitywatch.web.id/v1/ for further information on Global Impact and  Vulnerability Alert System (GIVAS): www.voicesofthevulnerable.net dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 21
  • 22. Tentang Narasumber dadang‐solihin.blogspot.com 22