The document discusses the future of social networks. It predicts that social networks will become ubiquitous like air, with a single social graph and universal identity across platforms. Relationships and activities will be linked across sites through federated identity and data portability. The value of social networks for marketing will increase as influence is defined by people's social connections and endorsements. Social networks will evolve into open platforms that integrate social data and enable activities rather than lock users into isolated sites.

1. The Future Of Social Networks
Charlene Li
Vice President & Principal Analyst
Co-author of Groundswell
Forrester Research
March 4, 2008

2. 2
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3. They are online with their social networks
3
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4. 4
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5. Theme
Social networks
will be like air.
5
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6. Components of social networks
Profile Universal identity
Relationships A single social graph
Activities Social context for activities
Business model Social influence defines
marketing value
6
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7. My multiple identities
7
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8. Universal identity
cli@forrester.com
me@charleneli.com
Mobile number
8
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9. Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach)
• A few major players will serve as major federation
focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the
market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
9
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10. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to
certain fundamental rights, specifically:
•Ownership of their own personal information, including:
» their own profile data
» the list of people they are connected to
» the activity stream of content they create;
•Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with
others; and
•Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to
trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael
Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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11. My Facebook social graph
Missing
Colleagues
Parents
Extended family
School parents
Neighbors
Babysitter
Walking group
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12. My real social graph is much more complex
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13. Let’s end the insanity
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14. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
LinkedIn
Twitter
Facebook Plaxo
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15. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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16. Relationship mapping will be automatic and
permission-based
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17. What people do today on social networks
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18. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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19. But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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20. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
Search based on what
my friends finds
relevant
Elevate stories tagged
by friends –
anywhere
See which of my
friends owns a Focus –
and what they think of
Compare daily portfolio it
performance to friends’
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21. The under-rated value of networks
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22. Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the
specific topic
• Your network’s
interest and authority
on the topic
• The trust level among
your network on the
topic
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23. The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best
experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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24. Evolution of open platforms
Walled
garden Ubiquitous
services social networks
Search
freedom
1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013
Data
portability
Portal
aggregators
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25. Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on
individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social
experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value
created by people’s social networks
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26. Thank you
Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
cli@forrester.com
www.forrester.com
groundswell.forrester.com
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