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1
AI NEXTCon Seattle ‘18
1/17-20th | Seattle
#ainextcon
http://aisea18.xnextcon.com
Oren Etzioni
CEO, Allen Institute
for Artificial Intelligence (AI2)
allenai.org
(Professor, University of Washington)
The Future of AI
Outline
I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning
II. Is AI an Existential Risk?
III. AI for the Common Good (AI2)
SemanticScholar.org
3
What Is AI?
AI is machines doing what humans do:
• Gave rise to a lot of Hollywood scripts
• AI as a noun: “the AI” took over the world…
AI in practice:
• The science & engineering of software to accomplish narrow tasks once thought
to require human intelligence
4
WE HAVE
CREATED
NARROW AI
AI SAVANTS
6
AlphaGo Case Study
What Is the Significance Of AlphaGo?
7
Haven’t We Seen This Movie Before?
8
Deep Blue beats Kasparov in 1997
Go Is Far More Difficult Than Chess
9
Chess Go
Board Size 8 x 8 19 x 19
Estimated Branching Factor ~35 ~250
Estimated Game Tree Depth 𝟒𝟎 𝟏𝟓𝟎
Est. Number of possible
games
𝟏𝟎 𝟒𝟕
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟕𝟎
Go board position evaluation is challenging
Myth: AlphaGo Shows The Way To AI
Board games are “black and white”
- Discrete moves
- Win/lose è evaluation function
Labeled data is essentially “infinite”
AlphaGo Zero: Self play.
10
Arthur C. Clarke
“Sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic...”
11
Deep Learning isn’t magic!
Source: Etzioni (Wired Magazine 2016)
Machine Learning Is 99% Human Work
Deep Learning inputs:
• Target concept
• Algorithm
• Neural network design
12
“Figuring out how to optimize
something is a CS problem. But
figuring out what to optimize is not.”
(Nate Silver, paraphrased)
My Questions for AlphaGo
• Can you play again?
• Can you play poker?
• Cross the street?
• Can you tell us about
the game?
13
No autonomy.
No.
No.
No.
Super-human performance on a
narrow task, does not translate to
human-level performance in
general!
Winograd Schemas (Levesque, 2011)
The large ball crashed right through the table because it was
made of styrofoam.
It = table
The large ball crashed right through the table because it was
made of steel.
It = ball
Common-sense knowledge &
tractable reasoning are necessary
for basic understanding!
14
2016 Challenge: 58.33% Correct
Paraphrasing Winston Churchill
Deep Learning is not the end,
it is not the beginning of the end,
it's not even the end of the
beginning!
15
Outline
I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep Learning
II. Is AI an Existential Risk?
III. AI for the Common Good (AI2)
SemanticScholar.org
16
Artificial
Intelligence (AI) is
Like ‘Summoning
the Demon’
17 Source: Terminator Salvation (2009)
Elon Musk Warns…
What do the Experts Think?
18 Source: Etzioni (MIT Tech Review 2016)
Working to Prevent AI from turning evil is like disrupting
the Space Program to prevent overpopulation on Mars.
19
Andrew Ng
Rodney Brooks
20
“If you’re worried about The Terminator,
just keep the door closed.”
Hollywood Myth: SkyNet
AI will be hegemonic, monolithic, and evil
One AI can be utilized to check
and counterbalance others (Etzioni & Etzioni, 2016)
Research on AI Guardians
Fact: Intelligence ≠ Autonomy
“Autonomous cars” is a misnomer
21
Outline
I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning
II. Is AI an Existential Risk?
III. AI for the Common Good (AI2)
SemanticScholar.org
22
23
Mission: AI for the
Common Good
Allen Institute For AI (AI2)
24
Intelligent Cars Will reduce accidents
25
Overcoming Information Explosion
“It's the absence of AI
technologies that is
already killing people.”
26
Eric Horvitz
Moshe Vardi
“We have a moral imperative to
study AI in order to save
people’s lives.”
27
IMPREGNABLE OFF SWITCH
Proposed Framework for Regulating AI
Source: 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
AI Field Is Fast
Moving, Amorphous
AI CARS
AI TOYS
ROBOTS
Regulate AI
Applications
Responsibility: an AI is
subject to the laws that
apply to its human
operator
My AI “did it” is not an excuse.
THE DOG ATE MY HOMEWORK…
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
Disclosure: an AI shall disclose that it is not human.
Source: TV Series Finale Humans
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
an AI shall not retain or disclose confidential
information without approval from the source.
Privacy:
AI Barbie
Amazon Echo
Roomba
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
AVOIDING BIAS
An AI shall not
amplify the
Bias in its
training data
BOTTOM LINE
AI IS NOT GOOD OR EVIL;
AI IS A TOOL;
A TECHNOLOGY,
Loss of Jobs
Major concern:
We Are Hiring! (visit Allenai.org)
35
36
Our incubator helps entrepreneurs build
large, impactful, AI-fueled companies.
CTO Residency
Program
Early-Stage
Startups
Entrepreneurs
in Residence
We train and mentor talented
engineers on the latest in
Deep Learning, Computer
Vision, ML, and more.
We help early-stage
startups build out their
AI teams and accelerate
their AI capabilities.
We help successful
entrepreneurs build their
next billion-dollar startup
with AI at the core.
37
Companies We’ve Incubated To-Date:
Your Startup Here
Ai2incubator.com
1 2 3
38
CTO Residency Program (January 23!)
Get up to 12-months of
highly exclusive training
on Deep Learning, NLP,
Computer Vision, ML, etc.
Pair with a successful
CEO to collaboratively
start building a new
company together.
Exit the incubator as
CTO of your new startup
with a large amount of
co-founder equity.

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The future of AI by Oren Etzioni from AI2

  • 1. 1 AI NEXTCon Seattle ‘18 1/17-20th | Seattle #ainextcon http://aisea18.xnextcon.com
  • 2. Oren Etzioni CEO, Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) allenai.org (Professor, University of Washington) The Future of AI
  • 3. Outline I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning II. Is AI an Existential Risk? III. AI for the Common Good (AI2) SemanticScholar.org 3
  • 4. What Is AI? AI is machines doing what humans do: • Gave rise to a lot of Hollywood scripts • AI as a noun: “the AI” took over the world… AI in practice: • The science & engineering of software to accomplish narrow tasks once thought to require human intelligence 4
  • 7. What Is the Significance Of AlphaGo? 7
  • 8. Haven’t We Seen This Movie Before? 8 Deep Blue beats Kasparov in 1997
  • 9. Go Is Far More Difficult Than Chess 9 Chess Go Board Size 8 x 8 19 x 19 Estimated Branching Factor ~35 ~250 Estimated Game Tree Depth 𝟒𝟎 𝟏𝟓𝟎 Est. Number of possible games 𝟏𝟎 𝟒𝟕 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟕𝟎 Go board position evaluation is challenging
  • 10. Myth: AlphaGo Shows The Way To AI Board games are “black and white” - Discrete moves - Win/lose è evaluation function Labeled data is essentially “infinite” AlphaGo Zero: Self play. 10
  • 11. Arthur C. Clarke “Sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic...” 11 Deep Learning isn’t magic! Source: Etzioni (Wired Magazine 2016)
  • 12. Machine Learning Is 99% Human Work Deep Learning inputs: • Target concept • Algorithm • Neural network design 12 “Figuring out how to optimize something is a CS problem. But figuring out what to optimize is not.” (Nate Silver, paraphrased)
  • 13. My Questions for AlphaGo • Can you play again? • Can you play poker? • Cross the street? • Can you tell us about the game? 13 No autonomy. No. No. No. Super-human performance on a narrow task, does not translate to human-level performance in general!
  • 14. Winograd Schemas (Levesque, 2011) The large ball crashed right through the table because it was made of styrofoam. It = table The large ball crashed right through the table because it was made of steel. It = ball Common-sense knowledge & tractable reasoning are necessary for basic understanding! 14 2016 Challenge: 58.33% Correct
  • 15. Paraphrasing Winston Churchill Deep Learning is not the end, it is not the beginning of the end, it's not even the end of the beginning! 15
  • 16. Outline I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep Learning II. Is AI an Existential Risk? III. AI for the Common Good (AI2) SemanticScholar.org 16
  • 17. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Like ‘Summoning the Demon’ 17 Source: Terminator Salvation (2009) Elon Musk Warns…
  • 18. What do the Experts Think? 18 Source: Etzioni (MIT Tech Review 2016)
  • 19. Working to Prevent AI from turning evil is like disrupting the Space Program to prevent overpopulation on Mars. 19 Andrew Ng
  • 20. Rodney Brooks 20 “If you’re worried about The Terminator, just keep the door closed.”
  • 21. Hollywood Myth: SkyNet AI will be hegemonic, monolithic, and evil One AI can be utilized to check and counterbalance others (Etzioni & Etzioni, 2016) Research on AI Guardians Fact: Intelligence ≠ Autonomy “Autonomous cars” is a misnomer 21
  • 22. Outline I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning II. Is AI an Existential Risk? III. AI for the Common Good (AI2) SemanticScholar.org 22
  • 23. 23 Mission: AI for the Common Good Allen Institute For AI (AI2)
  • 24. 24 Intelligent Cars Will reduce accidents
  • 26. “It's the absence of AI technologies that is already killing people.” 26 Eric Horvitz
  • 27. Moshe Vardi “We have a moral imperative to study AI in order to save people’s lives.” 27
  • 28. IMPREGNABLE OFF SWITCH Proposed Framework for Regulating AI Source: 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) (Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
  • 29. AI Field Is Fast Moving, Amorphous AI CARS AI TOYS ROBOTS Regulate AI Applications
  • 30. Responsibility: an AI is subject to the laws that apply to its human operator My AI “did it” is not an excuse. THE DOG ATE MY HOMEWORK… (Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
  • 31. Disclosure: an AI shall disclose that it is not human. Source: TV Series Finale Humans (Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
  • 32. an AI shall not retain or disclose confidential information without approval from the source. Privacy: AI Barbie Amazon Echo Roomba (Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
  • 33. AVOIDING BIAS An AI shall not amplify the Bias in its training data
  • 34. BOTTOM LINE AI IS NOT GOOD OR EVIL; AI IS A TOOL; A TECHNOLOGY, Loss of Jobs Major concern:
  • 35. We Are Hiring! (visit Allenai.org) 35
  • 36. 36 Our incubator helps entrepreneurs build large, impactful, AI-fueled companies. CTO Residency Program Early-Stage Startups Entrepreneurs in Residence We train and mentor talented engineers on the latest in Deep Learning, Computer Vision, ML, and more. We help early-stage startups build out their AI teams and accelerate their AI capabilities. We help successful entrepreneurs build their next billion-dollar startup with AI at the core.
  • 37. 37 Companies We’ve Incubated To-Date: Your Startup Here Ai2incubator.com
  • 38. 1 2 3 38 CTO Residency Program (January 23!) Get up to 12-months of highly exclusive training on Deep Learning, NLP, Computer Vision, ML, etc. Pair with a successful CEO to collaboratively start building a new company together. Exit the incubator as CTO of your new startup with a large amount of co-founder equity.