The Estonian economy is expected to see more stable growth in 2012, led by strengthening domestic demand and investments. In the first quarter of 2012, GDP growth slowed to 3.7% year-over-year as export growth declined and imports increased. Private consumption growth remains strong, supported by improving labor market conditions. Investment growth is projected to be robust in 2012, driven by public sector investments financed by EU funds and revenues from carbon quotas, as well as capacity constraints in manufacturing inducing private investments. Exports are expected to grow more slowly in 2012 as demand from trade partners softens.
According to a report by Swedbank's Economic Research Department:
- Estonia's GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 8.5% in the previous quarter, due to a decline in export growth.
- While domestic demand continued strengthening in the fourth quarter, contributing 7.7% to overall growth, net exports were negative for the second consecutive quarter as import growth exceeded export growth.
- The report forecasts Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012, supported by domestic demand, with investment growth driven by public sector projects and private sector investment expected to increase more in 2013.
The document discusses Vietnam's growing attractiveness as an investment destination due to trade tensions between China and the US. It notes that Vietnam has joined several trade agreements and economic partnerships that improve its business environment. The document also lists companies that have moved or plan to move factories from China to Vietnam, taking advantage of Vietnam's lower costs, young workforce, and strategic location between China and other Asian markets.
The Estonian Economy newsletter provides the following information:
1) Enterprise investments grew rapidly in 2011 but have slowed in 2012, with manufacturing slowing but energy growing strongly. Investments are being funded more through companies' own funds than loans.
2) Public sector investments are planned to grow 28% in 2012, funded mostly from EU funds and carbon quota sales.
3) Residential real estate transactions and prices have grown steadily for two years, driven by rising costs and demand, though people are relying more on own funds than loans due to low rates. Investments are expected to continue growing if economic conditions remain positive.
The Lithuanian economy grew 3.9% in the first quarter of 2012, driven by investment and household consumption. Unemployment rose temporarily to 14.5% due to seasonality and global uncertainty. While industrial production grew 6.8% in April, manufacturing growth excluding refined products slowed significantly to 1.7%. Retail trade growth also declined as consumption growth aligned with real wage growth. Unemployment is projected to decrease for the rest of the year, but remain elevated due to high participation and uncertainty.
Country Report > Aumento de la insolvencia en la zona NAFTAIgnacio Jimenez
The document provides economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. It summarizes key data on GDP growth, inflation, consumption, investment, exports and other indicators. It also analyzes economic trends and risks in each country, with a focus on potential impacts of a new US administration on Canada and Mexico through changes to trade policies or NAFTA. Business sectors in each country are also rated on their relative credit risk and performance outlook.
This document provides a summary of economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. For Canada, key points are that real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2015 due to lower oil prices, but rebound to 2% in 2016. Private consumption growth is forecast to remain subdued at 1.9% in 2015. Industrial production is predicted to contract 1.3% in 2015 while fixed investment decreases 2.7% due to reductions in the energy sector. Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 73.5% in 2015. For Mexico, GDP growth is forecast to be 2.3% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Inflation is estimated at
According to a report by Swedbank's Economic Research Department:
- Estonia's GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 8.5% in the previous quarter, due to a decline in export growth.
- While domestic demand continued strengthening in the fourth quarter, contributing 7.7% to overall growth, net exports were negative for the second consecutive quarter as import growth exceeded export growth.
- The report forecasts Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012, supported by domestic demand, with investment growth driven by public sector projects and private sector investment expected to increase more in 2013.
The document discusses Vietnam's growing attractiveness as an investment destination due to trade tensions between China and the US. It notes that Vietnam has joined several trade agreements and economic partnerships that improve its business environment. The document also lists companies that have moved or plan to move factories from China to Vietnam, taking advantage of Vietnam's lower costs, young workforce, and strategic location between China and other Asian markets.
The Estonian Economy newsletter provides the following information:
1) Enterprise investments grew rapidly in 2011 but have slowed in 2012, with manufacturing slowing but energy growing strongly. Investments are being funded more through companies' own funds than loans.
2) Public sector investments are planned to grow 28% in 2012, funded mostly from EU funds and carbon quota sales.
3) Residential real estate transactions and prices have grown steadily for two years, driven by rising costs and demand, though people are relying more on own funds than loans due to low rates. Investments are expected to continue growing if economic conditions remain positive.
The Lithuanian economy grew 3.9% in the first quarter of 2012, driven by investment and household consumption. Unemployment rose temporarily to 14.5% due to seasonality and global uncertainty. While industrial production grew 6.8% in April, manufacturing growth excluding refined products slowed significantly to 1.7%. Retail trade growth also declined as consumption growth aligned with real wage growth. Unemployment is projected to decrease for the rest of the year, but remain elevated due to high participation and uncertainty.
Country Report > Aumento de la insolvencia en la zona NAFTAIgnacio Jimenez
The document provides economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. It summarizes key data on GDP growth, inflation, consumption, investment, exports and other indicators. It also analyzes economic trends and risks in each country, with a focus on potential impacts of a new US administration on Canada and Mexico through changes to trade policies or NAFTA. Business sectors in each country are also rated on their relative credit risk and performance outlook.
This document provides a summary of economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. For Canada, key points are that real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2015 due to lower oil prices, but rebound to 2% in 2016. Private consumption growth is forecast to remain subdued at 1.9% in 2015. Industrial production is predicted to contract 1.3% in 2015 while fixed investment decreases 2.7% due to reductions in the energy sector. Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 73.5% in 2015. For Mexico, GDP growth is forecast to be 2.3% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Inflation is estimated at
Flash Comment: Lithuania - January 30, 2012Swedbank
Growth in Lithuania decelerated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2011, with GDP contracting 0.9% compared to the previous quarter. Industrial production fell 0.8% over the same period last year, and investments were hurt by deteriorating confidence. However, for the full year 2011, Lithuania's economy grew 5.8% as all sectors expanded. Going forward, the recession in the eurozone is expected to negatively impact Lithuania's exports and confidence, but GDP growth of 3.3% is still forecast for 2012 as household consumption and investments drive growth, supported by falling unemployment.
Informe País principales mercados Europeos- Mayo 2016Ignacio Jimenez
This document provides a country report on the main Western European markets in May 2016. It includes individual sections on 12 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Each country section includes information on key economic indicators for 2013-2017, their main export and import partners, industry forecasts, and the insolvency environment. The report indicates that most Western European economies are expected to see modest GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, while corporate insolvency levels are forecast to decline slightly or remain elevated in some countries.
Impact of covid 19 on Indian Economy & Banking SectorDr Praveen S
Impact of Covid-19 on indian Economy & Banking Sector
Topics covered:
- What is Covid-19 ((Corona Virus Disease) ?
- Socio - Economic Effects of Covid-19 on global society.
- How Covid-19 hit India?
- Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy.
- Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Banking Sector.
- Steps to be taken by Indian Banks.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
Flash comment: Estonia - September 8, 2011Swedbank
- GDP growth in Estonia reached 8.4% year-over-year and 1.7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter driven by strong exports and investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
- Exports grew 32% year-over-year while investments increased 15% due to companies raising production capacities and improving efficiency. Imports also increased 32% to support export growth.
- While household consumption grew 4%, savings rates may be weakening and unofficial incomes or consumption habits may be changing as durable goods consumption increased 34%.
- Additional key growth sectors included transport, construction, and tourism-related services, while real estate and financial activities declined.
- Second half growth is expected to be
1) Estonia has attracted the most foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP from euro area countries and other Baltic states since adopting the euro.
2) Latvia and Lithuania saw large drops in FDI, mainly due to restructuring at Swedbank.
3) Adopting the euro is expected to help Latvia attract more foreign investment by increasing credibility, though responsible fiscal policy is also important.
2020 ends with a world economic contraction above 4%, the biggest GDP decrease since World War 2. Among developed nations, growth comes to a standstill after the renewal of activity in Q3 as a result of the surge in cases and the movement restrictions. Services, especially those related to the hotel and leisure industry, experience the biggest losses. On the other hand, industry is advancing at a steady rhythm as international trade is reactivated.
In the US, the perspectives appear to indicate that the economy will register positive growth in Q4 2020, in spite of the recent surge in Covid-19 cases. In this context, the Fed has improved its growth forecasts and has announced that it will maintain its stimulus policy until there are improvements in employment and inflation reaches the target levels in the medium- to long-term (most likely at the end of 2022).
In the Eurozone, where restrictions have been tighter, a new contraction in GDP in Q4 is expected. Also, the outlook for Q1 2021 indicates that economic activity will not experience any significant growth, in spite of the vaccination campaigns in place by a variety of governments in member states.
In emerging economies, although a slight recovery is expected due to the reactivation of trade and the increase in prices for raw materials, different levels of performance can be observed. China, with the spread of the virus under control, is the country with the best economic data among the main powers. Other Asian economies such as Taiwan or Vietnam forecast annual growth rates close to 2% for 2020. On the other hand, India’s economy has slumped, with a decrease of -7.4%. In South America, the lack of control caused by the pandemic has added to several structural issues that are dragging down some economies (high levels of debt and unemployment), all of which is conditioning future recovery.
ANALYSIS OF ALL SECTORS OF INDIAN ECONOMY.
An analysis of the consumer retail sector (including food and beverage, apparel and footwear, beauty), automotive, travel, and hospitality services.
Ukraine has experienced a recovery from economic contraction, with GDP growth of 2.5% in 2017. Reforms across many sectors have supported momentum, while fiscal consolidation has helped prudent debt management. The current account deficit has decreased significantly since 2013. External accounts have adjusted and FDI inflows are increasing again.
A presentation of the main findings and recommendations of the OECD Economic Survey of Spain 2014 launched 8 September 2014 in Madrid, Spain.
Structural reforms (labour market, banking, fiscal) have put the economy on the road to recovery.
The economies are integrate with each other and nations need cooperation and coordination among themselves to overcome the economic crisis. Moreover, the nations should co-operate, coordinate and help each other to fight against Coronavirus. Subject to immediate relief from pandemic, the economic recovery from this fatal disease is only possible by 2021. It has already left severe impacts on the global economy and the countries face multiple difficulties to bring it back in a stable condition.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
The document summarizes the OECD Economic Outlook report. It finds that:
1) The global economy is growing slowly, with world GDP growth below historical averages and weak trade growth.
2) Growth projections vary across countries, with the US expected to accelerate but remain below trend, while China and India are projected to experience slower growth than in recent years.
3) Risks to the outlook are on the downside and include high debt levels in advanced economies and potential slowing of potential growth rates.
The document summarizes an OECD report which finds that global economic growth remains weak due to low trade, investment, and commodity prices. While monetary policy has been accommodative, fiscal policy in major economies has been contractionary and the pace of structural reforms is insufficient. Collective fiscal action and faster structural reforms are needed to boost global demand and reduce financial stability risks from emerging markets' high debt loads and volatile capital flows.
Deputy Governor Marja Nykänen
Bank of Finland
Bank of Finland Bulletin 2/2019 press briefing
Financial stability – timely measures to curb household indebtedness necessary
This document discusses foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries. It outlines the types and determinants of FDI, and both the benefits and costs of FDI for host countries. The document then analyzes FDI policies, incentives and trends in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan, and compares them. It identifies challenges to attracting FDI in Bangladesh and provides recommendations to improve FDI inflows, including developing infrastructure, streamlining procedures, ensuring political stability, and privatization.
The document discusses the relationship between finance, growth, and inequality. It finds that while finance can boost growth by allocating capital efficiently, too much finance through excessive deregulation or too-big-to-fail guarantees can harm growth. Increases in bank lending were found to have a more negative link to growth than other types of debt. The expansion of finance has also been linked to rising income inequality as the financial sector disproportionately benefits higher income groups through wages and access to credit. The document advocates policies like restricting too-big-to-fail subsidies and implementing macroprudential regulation to achieve healthy financial systems that support inclusive growth.
After declining sharply in 2008-2009, Lithuanian exports of goods started recovering in late 2009 and growth picked up significantly in 2010, with exports of goods increasing 28.4% in the first three quarters of the year. Exports have largely relied on Lithuania's export-oriented manufacturing sector, including foodstuffs, plastics, metals, machinery, and equipment. While the revival in manufacturing exports is positive, continued strong performance is not guaranteed given anticipated slowdowns in old EU member states. Higher value-added industries have greater long-term potential but Lithuania will remain reliant on traditionally strong lower and medium value sectors in the near future. Exports of services have lagged exports of goods, growing more modestly.
1) The document examines how pro-growth policies impact economic stability for households.
2) It finds that some reforms like weakening unemployment benefits or tax progressivity can increase household instability, while bolder reforms replacing tight labor and product market regulations can boost growth without harming stability.
3) Tax and benefit systems also significantly impact whether individual earnings losses are attenuated at the household level, with countries having more generous, progressive systems providing greater stability.
Swedbank Analysis Post-election Greece: 10 questions and answersSwedbank
New Democracy won the Greek election by a slight margin, but it is unclear what the new government will look like. New Democracy and Pasok together would have a majority, but they did not previously take responsibility for implementing the reform package from international lenders. If they fail to form a coalition, a new election may be held after the summer, prolonging uncertainty. If Syriza had won and torn up the austerity terms as promised, it likely would have led to Greece exiting the eurozone.
The Global Economy No. 8 - November 30, 2011Swedbank
The document summarizes the state of the global economy, with a focus on challenges in the eurozone. It discusses:
1) How the eurozone debt crisis is spreading from southern Europe to core countries, threatening the stability of the currency union.
2) How the inability to resolve fiscal problems in the US and eurozone crisis could lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
3) The rising risk of recession in the eurozone as fiscal austerity, credit constraints, and declining business/consumer confidence hurt growth prospects.
Flash Comment: Lithuania - January 30, 2012Swedbank
Growth in Lithuania decelerated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2011, with GDP contracting 0.9% compared to the previous quarter. Industrial production fell 0.8% over the same period last year, and investments were hurt by deteriorating confidence. However, for the full year 2011, Lithuania's economy grew 5.8% as all sectors expanded. Going forward, the recession in the eurozone is expected to negatively impact Lithuania's exports and confidence, but GDP growth of 3.3% is still forecast for 2012 as household consumption and investments drive growth, supported by falling unemployment.
Informe País principales mercados Europeos- Mayo 2016Ignacio Jimenez
This document provides a country report on the main Western European markets in May 2016. It includes individual sections on 12 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Each country section includes information on key economic indicators for 2013-2017, their main export and import partners, industry forecasts, and the insolvency environment. The report indicates that most Western European economies are expected to see modest GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, while corporate insolvency levels are forecast to decline slightly or remain elevated in some countries.
Impact of covid 19 on Indian Economy & Banking SectorDr Praveen S
Impact of Covid-19 on indian Economy & Banking Sector
Topics covered:
- What is Covid-19 ((Corona Virus Disease) ?
- Socio - Economic Effects of Covid-19 on global society.
- How Covid-19 hit India?
- Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy.
- Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Banking Sector.
- Steps to be taken by Indian Banks.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
Flash comment: Estonia - September 8, 2011Swedbank
- GDP growth in Estonia reached 8.4% year-over-year and 1.7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter driven by strong exports and investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
- Exports grew 32% year-over-year while investments increased 15% due to companies raising production capacities and improving efficiency. Imports also increased 32% to support export growth.
- While household consumption grew 4%, savings rates may be weakening and unofficial incomes or consumption habits may be changing as durable goods consumption increased 34%.
- Additional key growth sectors included transport, construction, and tourism-related services, while real estate and financial activities declined.
- Second half growth is expected to be
1) Estonia has attracted the most foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP from euro area countries and other Baltic states since adopting the euro.
2) Latvia and Lithuania saw large drops in FDI, mainly due to restructuring at Swedbank.
3) Adopting the euro is expected to help Latvia attract more foreign investment by increasing credibility, though responsible fiscal policy is also important.
2020 ends with a world economic contraction above 4%, the biggest GDP decrease since World War 2. Among developed nations, growth comes to a standstill after the renewal of activity in Q3 as a result of the surge in cases and the movement restrictions. Services, especially those related to the hotel and leisure industry, experience the biggest losses. On the other hand, industry is advancing at a steady rhythm as international trade is reactivated.
In the US, the perspectives appear to indicate that the economy will register positive growth in Q4 2020, in spite of the recent surge in Covid-19 cases. In this context, the Fed has improved its growth forecasts and has announced that it will maintain its stimulus policy until there are improvements in employment and inflation reaches the target levels in the medium- to long-term (most likely at the end of 2022).
In the Eurozone, where restrictions have been tighter, a new contraction in GDP in Q4 is expected. Also, the outlook for Q1 2021 indicates that economic activity will not experience any significant growth, in spite of the vaccination campaigns in place by a variety of governments in member states.
In emerging economies, although a slight recovery is expected due to the reactivation of trade and the increase in prices for raw materials, different levels of performance can be observed. China, with the spread of the virus under control, is the country with the best economic data among the main powers. Other Asian economies such as Taiwan or Vietnam forecast annual growth rates close to 2% for 2020. On the other hand, India’s economy has slumped, with a decrease of -7.4%. In South America, the lack of control caused by the pandemic has added to several structural issues that are dragging down some economies (high levels of debt and unemployment), all of which is conditioning future recovery.
ANALYSIS OF ALL SECTORS OF INDIAN ECONOMY.
An analysis of the consumer retail sector (including food and beverage, apparel and footwear, beauty), automotive, travel, and hospitality services.
Ukraine has experienced a recovery from economic contraction, with GDP growth of 2.5% in 2017. Reforms across many sectors have supported momentum, while fiscal consolidation has helped prudent debt management. The current account deficit has decreased significantly since 2013. External accounts have adjusted and FDI inflows are increasing again.
A presentation of the main findings and recommendations of the OECD Economic Survey of Spain 2014 launched 8 September 2014 in Madrid, Spain.
Structural reforms (labour market, banking, fiscal) have put the economy on the road to recovery.
The economies are integrate with each other and nations need cooperation and coordination among themselves to overcome the economic crisis. Moreover, the nations should co-operate, coordinate and help each other to fight against Coronavirus. Subject to immediate relief from pandemic, the economic recovery from this fatal disease is only possible by 2021. It has already left severe impacts on the global economy and the countries face multiple difficulties to bring it back in a stable condition.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
The document summarizes the OECD Economic Outlook report. It finds that:
1) The global economy is growing slowly, with world GDP growth below historical averages and weak trade growth.
2) Growth projections vary across countries, with the US expected to accelerate but remain below trend, while China and India are projected to experience slower growth than in recent years.
3) Risks to the outlook are on the downside and include high debt levels in advanced economies and potential slowing of potential growth rates.
The document summarizes an OECD report which finds that global economic growth remains weak due to low trade, investment, and commodity prices. While monetary policy has been accommodative, fiscal policy in major economies has been contractionary and the pace of structural reforms is insufficient. Collective fiscal action and faster structural reforms are needed to boost global demand and reduce financial stability risks from emerging markets' high debt loads and volatile capital flows.
Deputy Governor Marja Nykänen
Bank of Finland
Bank of Finland Bulletin 2/2019 press briefing
Financial stability – timely measures to curb household indebtedness necessary
This document discusses foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries. It outlines the types and determinants of FDI, and both the benefits and costs of FDI for host countries. The document then analyzes FDI policies, incentives and trends in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan, and compares them. It identifies challenges to attracting FDI in Bangladesh and provides recommendations to improve FDI inflows, including developing infrastructure, streamlining procedures, ensuring political stability, and privatization.
The document discusses the relationship between finance, growth, and inequality. It finds that while finance can boost growth by allocating capital efficiently, too much finance through excessive deregulation or too-big-to-fail guarantees can harm growth. Increases in bank lending were found to have a more negative link to growth than other types of debt. The expansion of finance has also been linked to rising income inequality as the financial sector disproportionately benefits higher income groups through wages and access to credit. The document advocates policies like restricting too-big-to-fail subsidies and implementing macroprudential regulation to achieve healthy financial systems that support inclusive growth.
After declining sharply in 2008-2009, Lithuanian exports of goods started recovering in late 2009 and growth picked up significantly in 2010, with exports of goods increasing 28.4% in the first three quarters of the year. Exports have largely relied on Lithuania's export-oriented manufacturing sector, including foodstuffs, plastics, metals, machinery, and equipment. While the revival in manufacturing exports is positive, continued strong performance is not guaranteed given anticipated slowdowns in old EU member states. Higher value-added industries have greater long-term potential but Lithuania will remain reliant on traditionally strong lower and medium value sectors in the near future. Exports of services have lagged exports of goods, growing more modestly.
1) The document examines how pro-growth policies impact economic stability for households.
2) It finds that some reforms like weakening unemployment benefits or tax progressivity can increase household instability, while bolder reforms replacing tight labor and product market regulations can boost growth without harming stability.
3) Tax and benefit systems also significantly impact whether individual earnings losses are attenuated at the household level, with countries having more generous, progressive systems providing greater stability.
Swedbank Analysis Post-election Greece: 10 questions and answersSwedbank
New Democracy won the Greek election by a slight margin, but it is unclear what the new government will look like. New Democracy and Pasok together would have a majority, but they did not previously take responsibility for implementing the reform package from international lenders. If they fail to form a coalition, a new election may be held after the summer, prolonging uncertainty. If Syriza had won and torn up the austerity terms as promised, it likely would have led to Greece exiting the eurozone.
The Global Economy No. 8 - November 30, 2011Swedbank
The document summarizes the state of the global economy, with a focus on challenges in the eurozone. It discusses:
1) How the eurozone debt crisis is spreading from southern Europe to core countries, threatening the stability of the currency union.
2) How the inability to resolve fiscal problems in the US and eurozone crisis could lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
3) The rising risk of recession in the eurozone as fiscal austerity, credit constraints, and declining business/consumer confidence hurt growth prospects.
Energy & Commodities, No. 10 - December 14, 2011 Swedbank
Crude oil prices have remained high despite global economic uncertainty. While other commodity prices are declining, oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel due to shrinking inventories and increased consumption in emerging economies. OPEC countries disagree on production levels, and the upcoming OPEC summit may not result in an agreement to change quotas. Rapid growth in emerging economies outside the OECD now accounts for about half of global oil consumption.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Swedish industry dropped from 50.2 in April to 49.0 in May, indicating that the recovery of the Swedish industrial economy is stagnating. The new orders component contributed most to the decline, followed by supplier delivery times, showing demand deteriorated. Layoffs increased in May as companies scaled back production plans due to the uncertain economic situation, though most still plan to maintain or increase production volumes. Input prices fell due to lower global commodity prices and weaker demand.
Lithuania needs more investment to sustain productivity gains. While productivity increased as employment and wages decreased during the economic crisis, those gains are being exhausted. Future productivity and competitiveness will depend on increased investments, which fell significantly in Lithuania during the crisis. Lithuania has lower investments than pre-crisis levels and investments are needed, especially in manufacturing, to maintain competitiveness. Creating a stable and business-friendly environment can help attract more domestic and foreign investments.
Energy & Commodities, No. 6 - June 8, 2012Swedbank
Swedbank's Total Commodity Price Index fell by 7.3% in USD in May, the largest monthly decline since 2009, led by a decline in energy commodities like crude oil. Crude prices have fallen due to a slowing global economy and rising inventories, lowering Swedbank's average 2012 oil price forecast to USD 110 per barrel from USD 119. Excluding energy, the commodity price index fell 3.7% as industrial activity slowed, raising metal stockpiles and lowering metal prices despite potential increased Chinese infrastructure investment. Food prices also declined slightly despite expected record grain production in 2012.
- Economic growth in Estonia reached 8.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2011, driven primarily by a strong manufacturing sector and private consumption growth.
- While manufacturing contribution is declining due to high bases of comparison, other sectors such as construction and services are contributing more to overall growth.
- Exports grew 24.2% in the third quarter but imports increased even faster, turning the trade balance negative for the first time in four years.
- The economic growth rate is expected to slow in the fourth quarter due to high comparisons and the ongoing eurozone crisis, with private consumption and investments continuing to support the economy.
The Estonian Economy, No. 3 - August 14, 2012Swedbank
The Estonian economy newsletter discusses investments in Estonia. Enterprise investments grew rapidly in 2011 due to recovering foreign demand and exports, though growth has slowed. Investments were largest in manufacturing and energy. Public sector investments are planned 28% larger in 2012, funded by EU funds and CO2 quotas. Residential real estate transactions and prices have grown for two years due to construction costs and demand. Investments are expected to continue growing but at a slower pace.
1) According to preliminary estimates, Estonia's GDP growth slowed from 3.6% in the first quarter to 2% in the second quarter, with seasonally adjusted quarterly growth at 0.4%.
2) Domestically oriented sectors like construction, ICT, and services contributed most to growth, while manufacturing contributed marginally due to falling export volumes as external demand weakened.
3) Weaker manufacturing results were seen in the electronics sector, where volumes fell 14% in the first half of the year, partially due to high base effects from the previous year, though other sectors like wood products and machinery saw growing production.
Economic growth in Estonia slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2011 to 3.9% from 4.5% in the previous quarter. The construction sector contributed strongly to growth, supported by public sector building projects, while retail growth also remained strong. However, manufacturing output declined due to weaker external demand, negatively impacting overall growth. While domestic demand is recovering, export growth is slowing faster than import growth. The economic outlook expects strengthening domestic demand and stabilization in manufacturing to support overall growth of 2.7% for the year, though electronics exports will continue dominating.
Flash comment: Estonia - September 7, 2012Swedbank
- According to revised data, Estonia's economic growth slowed to 2.2% in the second quarter from 3.4% in the first, though seasonally adjusted quarterly growth accelerated.
- Domestic demand (6.1% growth) rather than exports drove growth, with high investment (25.8%) but surprisingly weak private consumption (1.9%).
- Construction, retail, and ICT saw the highest sectoral contributions while manufacturing's contribution was negative for the second quarter in a row.
- Revised GDP figures showed a deeper economic crisis and steeper recovery than previously estimated, though first half 2012 growth remained largely the same.
Lithuanian Economy - No 1, January 4, 2012Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy remained resilient in November despite weakening demand abroad. While manufacturing growth slowed, it continued to expand, and retail trade grew at its fastest pace since recovery began. Strong growth in the fourth quarter should help public finances as budget collection has lagged targets this year. However, both foreign and domestic demand are expected to slow in the coming year, easing inflation pressures.
The Latvian Economy - No 1, January 17, 2012Swedbank
The Latvian economy experienced strong growth in investments and exports in 2011, contributing significantly to GDP growth. Investments grew 24.6% year-over-year in the first 9 months of 2011 and were concentrated in machinery, equipment, and infrastructure projects. Exports also increased substantially and made up over half of GDP. However, future investment growth depends on the situation in the eurozone, as the Latvian economy remains export-driven. Investments are expected to grow in single digits in 2012 but risks of slowing are present if the eurozone crisis deepens.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 6, September 2, 2011Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy grew at a slower pace of 6.3% in the second quarter of 2011, driven by lower investments and completion of the inventory restocking process. Unemployment declined sharply to 15.6% in the second quarter but remains high, while industrial production growth also slowed. Retail trade growth slowed in July due to lower car sales, and confidence indicators declined slightly in August due to concerns about the global economic environment. Overall growth is expected to continue at a slower pace for the rest of 2011 as demand uncertainties remain.
- Inflation in Estonia slowed to 4% in April from 4.4% in March, in line with expectations. Housing costs contributed nearly half of inflation, rising 10.7% year-over-year, while transport costs increased due to higher fuel prices.
- Wage growth has not kept up with rising costs for households, but inflation is expected to slow further in the coming months due to weaker domestic demand. However, sectoral unemployment could push up wages in some sectors and feed back into prices.
- The forecast sees consumer prices rising 3.8% on average for the year, with higher inflation in the first half and slower growth in the second half due to weaker domestic demand and higher
Latvian GDP growth was 5.9% in the first half of 2012, slowing from previous quarters. Private household consumption growth increased due to rising employment, wages and consumer confidence. Gross fixed capital formation growth remained strong at 20.5% due to infrastructure and capacity investment, although slowing from the first quarter. Export growth slowed to 3.8% while imports growth was 3.7%, resulting in a trade surplus for two consecutive quarters. Overall GDP growth is forecast to be 4% for 2012, slowing in the second half.
- According to new data, Estonia's average monthly gross wage grew 4.2% in the second quarter of 2011 compared to the previous year, though real wage growth was negative at -1% due to inflation. This wage growth was lower than expected.
- The fastest growing wages were in real estate, wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing. Wage growth in construction was slower than expected at 3.1% despite labor shortages in the sector.
- Overall, real wage growth in Estonia's export-focused sectors was weaker than anticipated, pointing to continued competitive advantage through lower costs. However, wages grew in some service sectors like wholesale and retail trade.
The Estonian Economy, No 7, November 28, 2011Swedbank
The Estonian economy has been heavily reliant on exports and manufacturing, which drove a rapid recovery from the 2008 recession. However, export growth is expected to slow substantially due to high base effects from previous double-digit growth and signs of weaker global demand. Manufacturing output declined sharply in September, with computer and electronics sectors dropping over 40%, pointing to falling export order books. While exports still grew 30% annually in September, much lower growth is expected in coming months due to base effects and softening external demand.
The Lithuanian economy is showing signs of recovery, though investments remain weak. While corporate profits are growing, investments in fixed assets continue to decline sharply from their pre-crisis levels. However, some early signs of recovery in machinery and equipment investments emerged in the second quarter of 2010. Looking forward, improving business confidence and rising capacity utilization rates signal that investments will need to increase next year to maintain competitiveness, facilitated by retained earnings as credit availability remains constrained. The government also plans deep cuts to investment spending in 2011, shifting the burden to the private sector.
Latvian GDP grew 5.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2011, driven mainly by strong growth in industry and exports. However, the analyst expects GDP growth to slow in the second half of the year due to weaker demand from Europe. While household consumption growth has been stable due to improving employment and wages, rising prices are limiting growth in purchasing power. The analyst maintains GDP growth forecasts for 2011 at 4.2% but acknowledges European economic slowdown will likely reduce Latvian export performance and investment activity in the coming quarters.
In this monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international company, we talk about the labor cost in Spain, international trade in services, the state of hotel overnight stays in Spain, where is the German PMI and the industrial production of China , in addition to what are the prices of raw materials.
- Latvia's GDP grew 6.9% annually in Q1 2012, up slightly from the previous quarter's growth rate of 1%. This exceeded the initial estimate of 6.8% growth.
- Investments and exports increased substantially, driving overall growth, while household consumption and government spending also increased.
- The construction industry saw the strongest growth of 28.5%, followed by manufacturing at 16.5%, as public infrastructure and private facility investments increased.
- While Latvian growth is expected to slow due to weakening European economic activity, the better than expected Q1 GDP may lead analysts to revise the country's full-year growth forecast upward from the current estimate of 2.5%.
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The industrial and logistics sector in Serbia has experienced challenges due to the poor national economy and low foreign investment. Since 2000, the industrial sector's share of GDP has declined to less than 20% as manufacturing jobs were lost. However, since 2011 the government has promoted strategies to attract investors and shift investments to manufacturing. New construction of industrial and logistics facilities continued in 2014 despite economic slowdown, with larger buildings being built. The supply of modern stock is dominated by industrial facilities, while new logistics facilities are located along highways near Belgrade. Government incentives have attracted export-oriented manufacturers, though macroeconomic issues slowed export growth in 2014.
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This document provides an overview of Swedbank, a bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It details that Swedbank has over 16 million inhabitants, 7.3 million private customers, and 651,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Key figures on branches, employees and lending are also provided for each country. The document discusses Swedbank's history, vision, values, purpose and engagement in society. It outlines challenges from new customer needs, competitors, regulations and economic developments, and how Swedbank is adapting. Services provided to private and corporate customers are also summarized.
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Swedbank is a major bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania with over 14,000 employees. It has a presence in several other Nordic and Baltic countries as well as in China, South Africa, Luxembourg, and the US. The bank provides a variety of financial services to over 7 million private customers and 640,000 corporate customers. Swedbank is adapting to changes in customer needs, regulations, competitors and the macroeconomic environment to remain a strong, relevant bank.
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Swedbank is a Swedish bank that provides banking services to individuals and businesses. It has over 2.4 trillion SEK in total assets and 7.3 billion SEK in operating profits. It operates primarily in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, serving over 4 million private customers and over 500,000 corporate customers. Swedbank aims to be accessible to customers through its branches, phone, and digital channels and to promote financial well-being for households and enterprises.
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1. The Estonian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Annika Paabut No. 1 • 21 June 2012
More stable growth ahead
The economic growth in the first quarter was supported by strengthening
domestic demand, especially investments growth. As export growth
continued to slow, the main contribution to value added shifted from
manufacturing to more domestically oriented sectors like construction and
retail.
Despite falling consumer confidence, private consumption has shown strong
growth rates, supported by continuously improving labour market conditions.
Expenditures on durables have grown the most, while that on necessities has
been rather sluggish.
Investment growth will be strong this year. The public sector investment
projects are financed by increasing EU funds and CO2 quota sales revenues.
In addition, many manufacturing companies are facing capacity constraints
which induce their investment activity, especially at the end of the year.
GDP growth slowing expectedly The main contributors to growth of value added
were domestically oriented sectors like construction
In 1Q of 2012 GDP (seasonally adjusted)
and ICT sectors. Since the end of 2010 the
decelerated to 3.7% y-o-y from 5.1% in 4Q 2011.
importance of the retail sector in growth has
Domestic demand was expectedly the main
increased as well. This all in all shows a strong
contributor to the growth – exports growth has
recovery of the domestic demand – solid growth in
slowed and imports growth accelerated turning net
private consumption and investments. At the same
exports contribution to the negative side. Domestic
time, the slowdown of value added growth stems
demand is mainly fuelled by the investments growth
very much from the manufacturing sector – the
that reached almost 17%. Private consumption
growth of exported volumes in electronics
grew by solid 3.2% in 1Q.
manufacturing started to increase with double-digit
Contributions to GDP annual growth
rates already in 2010 and it continued throughout
(constant prices, seasonally adjusted) 2011 as well. In 1Q this year the contribution of the
20%
manufacturing was negative (-1 pp) and the main
reason behind the slower growth in manufacturing
15%
is, again, electronics sector.
10%
All in all, we expect continuing growth in value
5%
added in construction sector, retail sector as well as
0% in real estate related activities. The latter is
-5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 expected as the activity in real estate market is
-10% expected to increase by the end of the year.
Construction sector growth will be supported, on the
-15%
one hand by the governments planned investments
-20%
financed by EU fund and/or revenues from CO2
-25% quota sales and on the other hand, as shown in a
Net export
Gov ernment consumption
Inv estments
Priv ate consumption
Source: Eurostat GDP
Economic Research Department. Swedbank AB. SE-105 34 Stockholm. Phone +46-8-5859 1000.
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.com www.swedbank.com
Legally responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson, +46-8-5859 7720.
Annika Paabut, +372 6 135 440. Elina Allikalt, +372 6 131 989.
2. The Estonian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
Nr 1 • 21 June 2012
1
survey of manufacturing companies , the private however, positive growth rates during the first four
sector is expected to increase their investments as months of the 2012 compared to the same period
well (mainly in the second half of the year) as many last year.
of manufacturing entrepreneurs are expecting
increase in turnovers. Retail sector will continue to Contributions to goods export annual growth
benefit from recovering confidence of residential (current prices)
households and continually increasing inflow of 40% Other
tourists from neighbouring countries.
30% Vehicles
Contributions to GDP growth by economic activity
20% Machinery ,
15%
Other equipment
10% Base
10%
Real estate, metals
renting etc
0% Wood, -
5% Transporta-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 products
tion, storage
-10% 4 Mineral
0% Retail months products
2009 2010 2011 2012
-20% Food
-5% Construction
-30% Total
-10% Manuf ac-
Source: Statistics Estonia
turing
-15% Agriculture
Exports of goods and services grew slower than
-20% GDP imports – in 1Q 2012 exports annual growth in real
Source: Statistics Estonia terms was 6.8% and imports 9.9%. The slowdown
of exports volumes was expected due to the high
comparison base as well as increasing uncertainty
in destination countries economies. In addition, the
Mixed signals in external balance overall economic environment in the world is not
Exports volumes have despite shaky external supporting fast growth in exports – even though the
environment shown rapid growth during the last outlook for near future of the main export partners
couple of years – in 2010 and 2011 the volume has improved somewhat the short term downward
increased by more than 20% in annual terms. The risks have risen. Imports growth is going hand in
first quarter of this year may describe with a hand with recovery of domestic demand and
considerably lower growth rates – due to historically slowing exports growth; during the last couple of
high volumes seen last year, the growth cannot years the exports growth determined that of imports
continue with similar rates without causing a and private consumption did not affected it much.
bubble. The other explanation stems from the Now, the situation has changed – thriving private
structure of the exports. The main group of consumption is inducing demand for imported
exported goods is still machinery and equipment goods. In the near future, as imports growth will
(see graph) that in turn is related to the fast growth outpace that of exports, the contribution of net
seen in the manufacturing of electronics since the export to growth will be negative.
middle of 2010. Mineral products exports are by
Export growth is expected to slow during this year
nature transit – Estonia has no such natural
and pick up again during next as the overall
resources and therefore all the needed products are
economic activity in the neighbouring countries will
brought in, remanufactured and exported again.
increase. In addition, in recent past the export
Other largest groups of goods that are exported
growth was mainly determined by rapid growth of
include food industry products and wood and wood
export sales in one sector (electronics), but this and
products manufacturing as well as production of
next year we expect the export sales in other
furniture. Latter three branches have shown,
sectors to contribute more. The four months
average exports sales of the electronics sector is
approximately 14% lower than a year ago, but
higher than average volume sold during the whole
1
year (in first half of the last year the foreign demand
Conducted by Swedbank; covered more than 200 industrial for electronic sector was at all time highest). We
companies with turnover more than EUR 4 million. expect export volumes in this sector to remain at
https://www.swedbank.ee/static/pdf/toostusettevotted_eng.pdf
2 (4)
3. The Estonian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
Nr 1 • 21 June 2012
the current level or slightly increase. The overall decelerated due to seasonal reasons.
increase in export sales will, according to our Nevertheless, nominal wage bill has increased
calculation, stem from other sectors like food and hand in hand with private consumption
wood industries as well as manufacture of expenditures pointing on fading fears of
machinery and equipment and electrical equipment. unemployment and future hardship and stronger
According to the previously mentioned survey1, the confidence in households’ financial situation in the
most of manufacturing companies is planning to near future.
increase their turnover during this year. Most
optimistic ones were firms in food industry – 95% of Private consumption and consumer confidence
firms in food manufacturing are expecting higher (left scale: annual growth; right scale: points)
turnovers than previous year. The average 20% 20
expectation of the annual increase amounted 15%
according to the survey 10.3%. At the same time, 10
all those companies are facing limitations in 10%
0
capacity utilisation – only 26% of enterprises 5%
studied are ready to increase their turnover without
0% -10
additional investments. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-5%
According to our forecast, export volumes are -20
-10%
expected to grow by 3.1% in 2012 and 7.1% in
-30
2013 as the economic activity in the neighbouring -15%
countries (the main export destination countries) will -20% -40
increase. Nevertheless, overall estimation of
Real wage Food prices
exports volume growth might in light of the
Priv ate consumption Consumer conf idence (r.s.)
mentioned survey be too conservative – we might
Source: Statistics Estonia, DG ECFIN
need to overlook our forecast already in near future.
Shadow economy decreasing, consumption
expenditures in line with wage bill growth Wage bill and employment growth, and consumer
confidence
Private consumption has showed strong growth (left scale: annual growth; right scale: points)
already since the last quarter of 2010. Growth 20% 10
continued throughout the 2011 and reached the
15%
annual rate 4.4% (consumption of residential 0
10%
households). In the subcategories of goods
purchased, most importantly, the fastest growth is 5%
-10
observed in durable goods purchases. This, all in 0%
all, reflects the grown confidence of households and -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-20
fading fears of future hardship due to loss of a job -10%
of household member(s). At the same time the
-15%
consumption expenditures on necessities have -30
been rather sluggish pointing on rapidly growing -20%
food prices (in 2011 prices of food products and -25% -40
non-alcoholic beverages in Estonia grew by Priv ate consumption Nominal wage bill
9.7% y-o-y, the average CPI growth reached Real wage bill Employ ment
Consumer conf idence (r.s.)
5% y-o-y) and more and more households suffering
Source: Statistics Estonia, DG ECFIN
of constrained budgets. The average real wage
continued to grow third quarter in a row – in
1Q 2012 average real wage grew by 2.4%. Despite the crises years, shadow economy has
according to recently published survey conducted
However, private consumption has shown strong by Estonian Economic Research Institute2
growth rates despite fall in confidence at the end of decreased during the 2011 from 9% to 8% of GDP.
last year and the quite modest increase in real According to this survey 13% of households
purchasing power. This phenomenon may be
explained by the favourable developments in labour
market – job creation started already at the
beginning of last year and has continuing with
surprisingly strong rates throughout the year 2011. 2
www.ki.ee „Shadow economy 2011“ (Varimajandus 2011, in
In the beginning of 2012, employment growth Estonian)
3 (4)
4. The Estonian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
Nr 1 • 21 June 2012
preferred goods and services that are cheaper and Investments of enterprises
they do not care whether the taxes on the goods or (left scale: million EUR; right scale: annual growth)
services are paid. 52% of households prefer only 900 80%
legally produced goods and services and the rest 800
60%
may act both ways time to time. Illegal (i.e. those, 700
on which the taxes are not paid) or barely illegal 600
40%
goods are most preferred in North-East Estonia and 500 20%
the least West-Estonia. Not surprisingly, the low
400 0%
income earners tend to buy goods and services on
300
what the taxes are not paid or buy them more -20%
frequently than high income earners. 200
-40%
100
Investments about to grow 0 -60%
Investments growth started already in 1Q of 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
and continued throughout the year. In 1Q 2012 the Buildings Construction
Vehicles Computers
annual growth reached only 1% and the decline in Other equipment, machinery Land
Inv estments (r.s.)
construction investments might be by and large Source: Statistics Estonia
seasonal. As mentioned before, manufacturers are
expecting higher turnovers, but face limitations of grow faster at the end of the year, as during the first
capacity utilisations – majority of firms are not able half uncertainties are still high, on account of which
to increase their turnover without investments. private enterprises tend to use the wait-and-see
According to the previously mentioned survey1 strategy. However, the study mentioned before,
more than 50% of firms in manufacturing are suggests that private sector is more keen to start
planning to increase their investments this year (for investment activity than was assumed in April,
instance, 63% of food industry and 57% of heavy when our forecast was published. At the same time,
industry firms are planning to increase their the short term risks remain due to the political
investments). uncertainties in the EMU countries, which in turn
We expect investments to increase by 11.5% y-o-y may increase the cautiousness of firms planning
(real terms) and next year the growth will slow a bit their investments. Therefore, we expect private
to 6.3%. This year the public sector investments are sector investment activity to increase during the
increasing considerably – they are financed by EU second half of the year.
funds and/or by revenues from CO2 quota trade. In
addition, we expect private sector investments to
Annika Paabut
Swedbank
Economic Research Department Swedbank’s monthly newsletter The Estonian Economy is published as a service to our
SE-105 34 Stockholm customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation
Phone +46-8-5859 1028 of the analyses reported in this publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or
ek.sekr@swedbank.com completeness of the report and cannot be held responsible for any error or omission in the
www.swedbank.com underlying material or its use. Readers are encouraged to base any (investment) decisions
on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for
Legally responsible publisher
losses or damages, direct or indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Swedbank’s
Cecilia Hermansson, +46-8-5859 7720
monthly newsletter The Estonian Economy.
Annika Paabut +372 6 135 440
Elina Allikalt +372 6 131 989
4 (4)