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Purchasing Managers' Index Services - February 2012

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Purchasing Managers' Index Services February 2012:Services PMI drops to 54.0 in February: the service sector economy is stabilizing

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Purchasing Managers' Index Services - February 2012

  1. 1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – services March 5, 2012Services PMI drops to 54.0 in February: the service sectoreconomy is stabilizing The purchasing managers’ index for services (Services PMI) dropped marginally from 54.4 in January to 54.0 in February. This marks a break in the upturn observed since December. Still, the index remains in the growth zone, which indicates that the service sector is expanding, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. All but one of the Services PMI’s component indices fell, the exception being the index for business activity, which climbed 2.8 points. This increase in business activity may reflect the increase in new orders observed in January. The indices for new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times all fell in February, but all remain above the 50 mark. Service companies have ratcheted up their business plans for the next six months, which are now at their highest level since July. This indicates that the service sector’s outlook for the economy remains positive. The index for supplier intermediate goods prices dropped in February. A cooling trend in the overall economy and a stronger Swedish krona may have contributed to lower cost pressure for service providers.  Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index - Services) Seasonally adjusted 2012 Feb. 54.0 Jan. 54.4 Dec. 51.1 Nov. 48.9 Oct. 49.0 Sep. 51.2 Aug. 53.5 Jul. 54.1 Jun. 53.3 May 56.4 Apr. 60.8 Mar. 60.8 Feb. 61.4 Next publication of Services PMI: Wednesday, April 4, 2012 Magnus Alvesson Swedbank, Ekonomic Research Department, +46 (0)8-5859 3341 1 (4) Administration, +46 (0)8-5859 7740, ek.sekr@swedbank.se Sebastian Bergfelt, Silf, +46 (0)73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
  2. 2. Silf/Swedbank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Service Sector. seasonally adjusted Components of PMI Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New Employ- Back -log Prices Planned activity times orders ment of orders business activity 2006 okt 61.8 68.1 55.3 62.9 58.5 56.6 55.0 68.2 nov 64.4 65.8 62.1 63.6 66.1 60.5 55.8 73.6 dec 67.4 71.9 59.8 68.3 68.0 58.7 53.2 75.3 2007 jan 65.7 70.4 60.9 66.7 62.7 62.1 57.8 73.7 feb 62.2 69.7 60.0 61.9 55.4 61.5 60.0 69.5 mar 59.3 60.5 54.8 61.6 58.2 56.8 56.0 68.8 apr 65.9 72.9 59.8 69.3 57.2 64.5 57.7 66.4 maj 60.6 61.9 59.4 61.6 58.2 65.9 59.9 66.4 jun 62.5 62.5 57.3 65.0 63.4 62.5 55.3 63.7 jul 60.2 63.7 61.1 61.0 53.5 60.0 58.5 64.9 aug 57.1 58.1 58.9 55.1 57.6 53.3 58.5 61.2 sep 58.6 59.7 57.5 55.8 63.3 57.7 52.9 62.9 okt 57.7 56.7 57.0 57.3 60.5 53.8 57.6 70.0 nov 61.3 67.5 55.4 61.7 58.6 59.3 61.5 55.3 dec 62.2 67.0 57.1 61.2 63.0 64.8 62.1 60.3 2008 jan 57.3 59.5 52.6 55.7 61.8 55.0 63.2 67.3 feb 55.8 56.2 54.2 57.8 53.5 58.6 61.1 63.7 mar 54.4 53.9 52.4 53.8 58.3 52.6 59.4 71.5 apr 52.4 53.1 49.0 49.3 60.5 53.0 55.9 61.6 maj 60.4 68.3 50.4 57.1 66.3 55.5 56.2 63.7 jun 52.5 56.0 49.7 47.9 58.8 45.8 63.8 63.8 jul 53.2 57.4 45.3 49.3 62.5 44.8 66.3 59.6 aug 50.6 53.1 49.4 45.6 57.4 49.4 57.4 61.0 sep 52.6 56.9 47.9 47.7 60.2 39.3 58.2 57.2 okt 43.0 44.9 46.0 36.1 49.8 44.9 58.3 49.1 nov 44.4 44.3 50.1 37.6 50.5 36.4 53.6 43.4 dec 38.2 37.8 39.9 36.7 39.6 37.1 45.2 40.4 2009 jan 34.8 32.8 42.3 34.5 30.2 27.1 48.6 33.7 feb 37.6 36.3 38.7 35.2 42.4 34.6 47.3 40.3 mar 40.6 43.9 41.5 42.3 32.5 39.2 48.3 36.8 apr 39.9 40.9 38.8 39.7 40.0 38.9 42.4 46.2 maj 40.4 44.0 42.4 43.3 28.9 38.0 40.6 43.9 juni 41.8 43.5 40.1 46.4 33.5 44.2 35.3 51.4 juli 42.6 44.9 38.1 47.2 36.1 42.6 40.2 54.9 aug 45.8 51.4 40.8 50.6 35.3 47.7 45.7 56.0 sep 49.1 53.3 46.0 56.0 34.9 54.8 49.4 59.6 okt 55.7 62.8 47.5 63.4 41.4 63.3 45.3 62.2 nov 51.8 57.1 48.3 57.4 39.0 57.6 44.7 68.3 dec 47.6 52.6 46.8 49.6 38.5 48.6 52.4 61.4 2010 jan 54.7 59.0 50.7 58.2 47.1 55.0 48.6 61.6 feb 60.3 63.0 53.9 66.8 52.1 60.7 46.3 74.7 mar 61.4 65.0 58.4 63.7 55.7 60.4 56.0 71.9 apr 62.2 66.1 60.7 64.2 55.2 61.0 60.1 73.8 maj 59.1 60.1 59.4 60.2 55.6 58.6 62.4 68.9 juni 59.7 61.4 62.1 61.2 52.7 61.3 62.0 69.0 juli 63.0 66.4 61.0 65.9 55.4 63.0 63.1 71.3 aug 64.0 66.4 61.9 67.8 56.6 64.1 62.2 70.7 sep 61.5 60.1 64.7 64.4 54.7 60.7 63.7 74.3 okt 64.3 65.9 62.0 68.2 58.0 62.0 60.6 77.4 nov 64.6 65.5 59.2 68.2 62.7 64.5 65.8 78.6 dec 65.9 69.8 64.6 65.6 62.9 60.8 63.6 77.0 2011 jan 65.1 70.2 61.2 65.0 62.6 63.5 67.1 77.7 feb 61.4 61.6 62.5 60.5 61.7 58.3 68.9 69.0 mar 60.8 64.4 60.5 58.9 60.0 55.8 64.7 69.7 apr 60.8 62.7 60.0 61.1 58.9 58.1 65.0 67.3 maj 56.4 55.9 58.1 55.1 57.7 50.2 59.9 67.0 juni 53.3 58.5 54.6 47.9 55.1 48.0 57.5 62.1 juli 54.1 54.9 55.5 52.3 54.7 53.2 54.1 62.1 aug 53.5 53.7 55.4 53.3 51.7 49.4 55.0 59.5 sep 51.2 52.3 51.6 48.1 54.7 47.8 54.2 57.4 okt 49.0 48.8 51.0 45.4 53.7 45.7 52.9 53.6 nov 48.9 50.0 49.2 46.8 51.1 45.7 53.6 54.4 dec 51.1 50.7 50.5 50.6 52.9 47.6 54.3 57.7 2012 jan 54.4 54.3 50.7 56.4 54.5 55.5 55.1 58.8 feb 54.0 57.1 50.0 54.0 54.0 48.0 53.8 60.5 2 (4)
  3. 3. Silf/Swedbank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Service Sector, orginal Components of PMI Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New Employ- Back -log Prices Planned activity times orders ment of orders business activityokt 60.8 67.0 56.1 61.2 57.1 55.0 53.0 66.0nov 62.2 64.1 62.0 59.8 64.1 56.5 52.2 69.6dec 63.6 67.4 57.4 64.9 62.8 56.4 48.9 71.3jan 60.9 63.3 58.3 62.2 58.2 57.1 59.2 71.4feb 61.7 68.9 60.0 62.2 53.3 64.0 61.1 71.1mar 60.6 63.4 52.4 64.6 58.5 59.8 56.1 69.5apr 68.7 76.2 59.5 73.8 59.5 67.9 59.5 70.2maj 63.8 66.3 60.5 65.1 61.6 69.8 62.8 70.9jun 68.0 69.0 60.7 70.2 70.2 66.7 57.1 67.1jul 56.1 56.3 64.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 59.4 65.6aug 58.8 60.0 57.8 57.8 60.2 55.6 57.8 60.2sep 60.4 63.1 58.1 58.1 63.4 58.1 53.5 61.6okt 56.7 55.6 57.8 55.6 59.1 52.2 55.6 67.8nov 59.1 65.8 55.3 57.9 56.6 55.3 57.9 51.3dec 58.4 62.5 54.7 57.8 57.8 62.5 57.8 56.3jan 52.5 52.4 50.0 51.2 57.3 50.0 64.6 65.0feb 55.3 55.4 54.2 58.1 51.4 61.1 62.2 65.3mar 55.8 56.8 50.0 56.8 58.6 55.6 59.5 72.2apr 55.2 56.4 48.7 53.8 62.8 56.4 57.7 65.4maj 63.6 72.7 51.5 60.6 69.7 59.4 59.1 68.2jun 58.0 62.5 53.1 53.1 65.6 50.0 65.6 67.2jul 49.1 50.0 48.3 41.4 62.1 37.9 67.2 60.3aug 52.3 55.0 48.3 48.3 60.0 51.7 56.7 60.0sep 54.3 60.3 48.5 50.0 60.3 39.7 58.8 55.9okt 42.0 43.8 46.8 34.4 48.4 43.3 56.3 46.9nov 42.2 42.6 50.0 33.8 48.5 32.4 50.0 39.4dec 34.4 33.3 37.5 33.3 34.4 34.8 40.9 36.4jan 30.0 25.7 39.7 30.0 25.7 22.1 50.0 31.4feb 37.1 35.5 38.7 35.5 40.3 37.1 48.4 41.9mar 41.9 46.8 39.1 45.3 32.8 42.2 48.4 37.5apr 42.7 44.2 38.5 44.2 42.3 42.3 44.2 50.0maj 43.6 48.4 43.5 46.8 32.3 41.9 43.5 48.4juni 47.3 50.0 43.5 51.6 40.3 48.4 37.1 54.8juli 38.5 37.5 41.1 39.3 35.7 35.7 41.1 55.6aug 47.5 53.3 39.7 53.3 37.9 50.0 45.0 55.0sep 50.9 56.7 46.6 58.3 35.0 55.2 50.0 58.3okt 54.7 61.7 48.3 61.7 40.0 61.7 43.3 60.0nov 49.7 55.4 48.2 53.6 37.0 53.6 41.1 64.3dec 43.7 48.1 44.4 46.2 33.3 46.3 48.1 57.4jan 49.9 51.9 48.1 53.7 42.6 50.0 50.0 59.3feb 59.8 62.2 53.9 67.1 50.0 63.2 47.4 76.3mar 62.7 67.9 56.0 66.7 56.0 63.4 56.1 72.6apr 65.0 69.4 60.4 68.7 57.5 64.4 61.9 77.6maj 62.3 64.5 60.5 63.7 59.0 62.5 65.3 73.4juni 65.2 67.9 65.5 66.4 59.5 65.5 63.8 72.4juli 58.9 59.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 56.1 64.0 72.0aug 65.8 68.3 60.8 70.5 59.2 66.4 61.5 69.7sep 63.2 63.5 65.3 66.7 54.8 61.1 64.3 73.0okt 63.4 64.8 62.8 66.5 56.6 60.4 58.6 75.2nov 62.5 63.8 59.1 64.4 60.7 60.5 62.2 74.6dec 62.1 65.3 62.2 62.2 57.7 58.5 59.3 73.0jan 60.3 63.1 58.6 60.5 58.1 58.5 68.5 75.4feb 60.9 60.8 62.5 60.8 59.6 60.8 70.0 70.6mar 62.2 67.3 58.1 61.9 60.3 58.8 64.8 70.4apr 63.6 66.0 59.7 65.6 61.2 61.5 66.8 71.1maj 59.6 60.3 59.2 58.6 61.1 54.1 62.8 71.5juni 58.8 65.0 58.0 53.1 61.9 52.2 59.3 65.5juli 50.0 47.5 58.5 44.4 54.3 46.3 55.0 62.8aug 55.2 55.6 54.3 56.0 54.3 51.7 54.3 58.5sep 53.0 55.7 52.2 50.4 54.8 48.2 54.8 56.1okt 48.0 47.7 51.8 43.7 52.3 44.1 50.9 51.4nov 46.8 48.3 49.1 43.0 49.1 41.7 50.0 50.4dec 47.2 46.2 48.1 47.2 47.7 45.3 50.0 53.7jan 49.6 47.2 48.1 51.9 50.0 50.5 56.5 56.5feb 53.5 56.3 50.0 54.3 51.9 50.5 54.9 62.1 3 (4)
  4. 4. Silf/Swedbank’sPurchasing Managers’ Index – Services- objectives and methodologyHistory Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S. based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been published since November 1994Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.Compositionof PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35 Business activity (within the company) 25 Employment (within the company) 20 Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20Other leading indicators(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices Planned business activity next six monthsObjective Quick economic indicator Simple statistics Statistics with relatively short publication intervals Constant contact with a well-informed professional groupCalculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by 0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly changes in activity in the service sector.“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis – has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at 50 indicates a target value. We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI – Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background material as well. Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services. 4 (4)

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