The document provides economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. It summarizes key data on GDP growth, inflation, consumption, investment, exports and other indicators. It also analyzes economic trends and risks in each country, with a focus on potential impacts of a new US administration on Canada and Mexico through changes to trade policies or NAFTA. Business sectors in each country are also rated on their relative credit risk and performance outlook.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Los distintos países de Sudamérica afrontan 2015 con marcadas diferencias, como señala el último informe sobre la región distribuido por Crédito y Caución. Chile y Argentina, dos mercados que reciben una cantidad muy similar de exportaciones españolas pero muy distinta tendencia, ejemplifican los dos extremos de esta realidad continenta
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Los distintos países de Sudamérica afrontan 2015 con marcadas diferencias, como señala el último informe sobre la región distribuido por Crédito y Caución. Chile y Argentina, dos mercados que reciben una cantidad muy similar de exportaciones españolas pero muy distinta tendencia, ejemplifican los dos extremos de esta realidad continenta
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
Slides from NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) Summer, 2019 Launch which took place in Buswells Hotel on Thursday 18th July, 2019. The QEO proposes changes to the taxation of capital stocks in the Republic, in particular reforms to Local Property Tax.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
Slides from NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) Summer, 2019 Launch which took place in Buswells Hotel on Thursday 18th July, 2019. The QEO proposes changes to the taxation of capital stocks in the Republic, in particular reforms to Local Property Tax.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
North American Commercial Real Estate ReportChris Fyvie
We are pleased to share with you the our latest North American Research Report -covering approximately 70 metro areas - demonstrating that the office market in the United States and Canada will continue a steady growth, but will lack in the force and pace of prior cycles. However, positive market trends exist, including strong absorption and declining vacancy rates in all the major U.S. CBDs. Additionally, construction is increasing, but remains below historic highs.
Payroll and Labor Related Issues - Canada - September 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Here is my look at labour concerns related to the Canadian economy
Wages have grown at a pace of 3.2%
Inflation continues to be stubbornly high at 7%
Immigration backlog continues to plague the government
More needs to be done with programs like EI to help bridge the skills gap
Canada needs to focus on policies that will support innovation spending, closing the skill gap, improving productivity, and addressing issues with supply chain
All levels of government need to reel in their spending including more performance and value for money audits
All levels of government and the private sector need to look a sustainable housing options
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Atradius Country Report - United States – April 2014Salih Yilmaz
Atradius country reports are designed to support you in trading safely abroad. Our overviews give you short, concise information on large Western economies´ economic performance and insolvency development and on main emerging markets´ current political and economical situation and outlook.
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Az eddig beérkezett adatok alapján akár 5%-kal is nőhetett a hazai GDP az első negyedévben. Az év első felében nagyon erős dinamikára számítunk, a második félévben azonban az egyre intenzívebb import-kereslet és bázishatás miatt már lassulni fog a gazdaság bővülése, 2019-ben pedig 3%-ig mérséklődhet a növekedési ütem.
Ya hay 265 empresas FinTech en España. En esta actualización se incorpora Insight View (herramienta que nos da información sobre la solvencia y los niveles de riesgo de nuestros clientes) en la vertical de crédito
Economic outlook de Credito y Caucion - Mayo 2017Ignacio Jimenez
Repunte cíclico del comercio global pese a la incertidumbre y la debilidad estructural
El último Economic Outlook difundido por Crédito y Caución muestra una mejora de sus perspectivas económicas mundiales, pero resalta las debilidades estructurales no resueltas y el aumento de la incertidumbre.
Previsión de insolvencias de los mercados avanzadosIgnacio Jimenez
El entorno de insolvencia en la mayoría de los mercados avanzados registrará en 2016 poca o ninguna mejoría.
El informe difundido por Crédito y Caución alerta del agravamiento de las perspectivas de insolvencia en línea con las revisiones a la baja en las previsiones de crecimiento del PIB.
El informe recalca los efectos del Brexit, que influye en la confianza en muchos mercados avanzados y genera volatilidad en el mercado financiero. Tras la decisión del Reino Unido de salir de la Unión Europea, se prevé que sus insolvencias aumenten un 2% en 2016 y un 3% en 2017. La revisión de las previsiones ya está pesando sobre la confianza en muchos otros países de la zona euro, particularmente aquellos con alta exposición al Reino Unido.
Infografia: la gestion del riesgo en españa en numerosIgnacio Jimenez
Infografia que resume el estudio realizado por el IE Business School sobre la gestión de crédito en España con la colaboración de Iberinform y Crédito y Caución.
Plazos medios de pago, impagos significativos, comparación de impagos con la administración pública y entidades privadas.
El Barómetro de Prácticas de Pago revela el crecimiento del riesgo de crédito de las exportaciones de Europa del Este.
Europa del Este crecerá en 2016 en el entorno del 1,1%. A pesar del crecimiento de la región, su tejido empresarial afronta un incremento de la morosidad asociada a las exportaciones. Esta es una de las principales conclusiones de Barómetro de Prácticas de Pago difundido por Crédito y Caución, que muestra la preocupación del 20% de las empresas de la región, frente al 16% de Europa occidental, por sus niveles de flujos de caja debido al creciente riesgo de crédito del comercio derivado del retraso en los pagos de los compradores extranjeros.
Estudio gestión del riesgo de crédito - mayo 2016Ignacio Jimenez
Estudio de la Gestión del Riesgo de Crédito en España elaborado por el Observatorio de Cash Management que impulsan Iberinform, Crédito y Caución y el IE Business School
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
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Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
3. 3
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017**
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 2.2 2.5 1.1 1.2 2.0
Consumer prices (y-on-y, % change) 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4
Private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.1
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 2.2 2.6 0.5 1.9 0.0
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 2.2 4.0 -1.1 -1.4 1.7
Unemployment rate (%) 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) -0.5 0.7 -4.4 -3.0 1.2
Exports of goods and non-factor services
2.8 5.3 3.4 0.5 1.7
(y-on-y, % change)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0
Government debt (% of GDP) 61.8 63.2 66.0 66.4 64.6
* estimate **forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
Canadian industries performance forecast
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
November 2016
Canada
USA: 53.2 % USA: 76.7 %
China: 12.2 % China: 3.9 %
Mexico: 5.8 % United Kingdom: 3.1 %
Germany: 3.2 % Japan: 1.9 %
Japan: 2.8 % Mexico: 1.3 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
4. 0
3,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
4,000 4,000
5,000 5,000
1,000 1,000
4
The insolvency environment
Sources: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada; Atradius Economic Research
*forecast
(Calendar year: % change on previous year)
Canadian business insolvencies
% change
2010
-24.9 %
2011
-10.5 %
2012
-11.2 %
2013
-1.5 %
2014
-2.2 %
2015
-0.9 %
0
3,187 3,116 3,089
4,072
3,643
3,236
2016* 2017*
2.0 % -1.0 %
3,150 3,120
Canadian corporate insolvencies are increasing again
After double-digit year-on-year decreases between 2010 and 2012, the pace
of insolvency decline slowed down in 2013-2015. Due to the more difficult
economic environment and low commodity prices (see explanation below), it is
expected that business insolvencies will increase in 2016, by 2% to about 3,150
cases, followed by a modest decrease of 1% in 2017.
Main economic developments
Growth expected to rebound in 2017
The Canadian economy saw robust growth between 2010 and 2014, mainly
due to increased global demand for commodities, especially oil. However, as the
world´s fifth largest oil producer, Canada has been affected by the decrease in
oil prices since mid-2014, suffering a major decrease in investment.
Economic growth slowed down to 1.1% in 2015, and in 2016 a similar growth
rate of around 1.2% is expected. The slowdown is mainly a result of contractions
in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction and wholesale trade,
while private consumption continued to contribute positively to GDP. That said,
GDP growth is expected to gain momentum at the end of 2016, and in 2017 it
is forecast to rebound (grow 2.0%), as investments, industrial production, and
non-energy exports pick up and fiscal spending (especially on infrastructure)
increases.
However, uncertainty has increased after the outcome of the November 2016
US presidential election. Any moves by the next US administration under presi-
dent Donald Trump towards more protectionist trade policies and/or renegotia-
ting the North American Free Trade (NAFTA) agreement would have a potential
negative impact on the Canadian economy in the future.
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
2.2
2.5
1.1 1.2
2.0
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
5. 5
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
5
4
3
2
1
0
2.4 2.12.6 2.1
1.9
Private consumption growth rebounds, but high household
indebtedness could pose a risk to the economy
After growing 2.6% in 2014, private consumption growth slowed down to 1.9%
in 2015, but is expected to rebound slightly in 2016 and 2017. Household debt
expanded in recent years, with most consumer borrowing going into buying
homes, as property values have gone up and interest rates are low. However, it
is estimated that housing is currently overvalued, and household indebtedness
has increased to more than 150% of disposable income. This could pose a risk to
the economy, especially if interest rates and unemployment were to increase in
the future. Any potential economic downturn could turn the consumer debt is-
sue into a real problem. That said, the unemployment rate is expected to remain
stable for the time being, at around 6.9% in 2016 and 2017, and the Central
Bank has maintained the overnight lending rate at 0.5% since mid-2015.
Industrial production to contract again in 2016
The lowering of the interest rate twice in 2015 was seen as a move by the Ca-
nadian Central Bank to boost investments and to make Canadian exports even
cheaper. However, the weaker exchange rate and lower interest rate have not
led to a real surge of exports of manufactured goods to the US, which accounts
for more than 75% of Canadian exports. Industrial production contracted in
2015 and 2016. The potential of manufacturing to compensate for deterioration
in the energy sector is limited, as manufacturing contribution to GDP has stea-
dily decreased in recent years. At the same time, the Canadian manufacturing
sector has lost international competitiveness, as currencies of other countries
exporting to the US have also depreciated against the USD. Additionally, Canadi-
an wages are high by international comparison.
The growth in exports of goods and non-factor services is expected to improve
to 1.7% in 2017, on the back of a weaker Canadian dollar (CAD) and subdued
growth of 0.5% in 2016. The current account deficit is expected to decrease
to 3.0% of GDP in 2016 and 1.7% of GDP in 2017). However, any future trade
frictions with the US could actually dampen Canada´s export performance in the
future.
Problems in the oil sector triggered investment contraction
Energy firms, which account for about 30% of capital spending, sharply reduced
investment in 2015 and 2016, by more than 50%. At the same time, investment
in the manufacturing sector remained subdued. Real fixed investment in Canada
decreased 4.4.% in 2015, followed by an expected 3.0% decline in 2016 and a
modest rebound of 1.2% in 2017.
Public deficit increases, but government debt remains
manageable
Canada´s budget deficit has increased in 2016, as the government under Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau decided to increase fiscal spending in order to stem
decreasing growth rates. Government debt is relatively low compared to the US
and most Western European countries, helped by the fact that Canada did not
suffer a major downturn after the 2008 financial crisis.
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Industrial production
(y-on-y, % change)
6
4
2
0
-2
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Real fixed investment
(y-on-y, % change)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2.2
1.7
4.0
-1.4
-1.1
-0.5
1.20.7
-3.0
-4.4
-2.7
-1.0
-1.6 -1.5-1.3
6. 6
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017**
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.2
Consumer prices (y-on-y, % change) 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.9 3.2
Private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 2.4 1.8 3.1 2.8 2.5
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 1.3 2.6 5.1 7.1 3.4
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) -0.5 2.6 1.0 1.3 3.4
Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) -1.5 2.8 3.9 2.4 2.3
Export of goods and non-factor
2.3 6.9 9.1 2.4 3.8
services (y-on-y, % change)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -3.2 -3.5 -3.8 -3.4
Government debt (% of GDP) 34.6 37.2 41.3 41.2 39.4
* estimate **forecast Source: EIU, IHS, IMF
Mexican industries performance forecast
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
November 2016
Mexico
USA: 47.4 % USA: 81.2 %
China: 17.7 % Canada: 2.8 %
Japan: 4.4 % China: 1.3 %
South Korea: 3.7 % Brazil: 1.0 %
Germany: 3.5 % Colombia: 1.0 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
7. 7
Main economic developments
The US presidential election: potential impact on the Mexican
economy
It remains to be seen what will be full impact of any Mexico policy shift under the
new US administration. However, given Donald Trump´s announcements of a
radical change in his Mexico policy during the campaign, exchange rate volatility
increased over the last couple of months, with a Mexican peso depreciation by
more than 10%. Exchange rate volatility is expected to continue over the coming
weeks, until the US policy towards Mexico under president-elect Trump becomes
clearer.
While the exchange rate acts as a shock absorber for the Mexican economy, the
peso depreciation has pushed up inflation. As a consequence, the Bank of Mexico
has increased the benchmark interest rate several times since the beginning of
2016 – from a record low of 3% at the end of 2015 to 4.75% in October 2016, and
in the short-term additional interest rate hikes to more than 5% are expected.
However, this monetary policy negatively impacts domestic demand in times
of an already sluggish GDP growth rate of just about 2% in 2016 (mainly due to
decreased oil prices, lower oil production, tighter fiscal policies and low produc-
tivity growth). At the same time on-going domestic political woes (the still un-
stable security situation caused by drug-related crime incidents and widespread
corruption) continue to affect business and consumer confidence.
The projected Mexican GDP growth rate of about 2% in 2017 and 2018 could end
up much lower if Donald Trump puts into practice some of the announcements
he made during the campaign period, e.g. renegotiate NAFTA or even withdraw
from it, imposing import tariffs on Mexican goods, impose capital controls over
remittances (which account for 2.5% of Mexican GDP) and order mass depor-
tations of illegal immigrants. Increased economic insecurity could also hamper
foreign direct investment in Mexico, especially in the oil sector (international
tenders for deep water oil fields).
Potential impact on Mexican businesses
The peso depreciation mainly affects companies that depend on imported goods
and/or are indebted in US dollar. Cash flow is affected if higher producer prices
cannot be passed on to customers. Some businesses have already started to
delay payments, waiting for the peso to strengthen again.
Rising interest rates could adversely affect businesses that are already financial-
ly stretched, limiting their ability to repay interest and capital and/or renew their
bank lines, which could lead to breach of covenants and default.
Any import taxes imposed by the US on trade with Mexican businesses would
severely hurt exporters and those in the value chain that sell their goods to
exporting companies. The main affected Mexican sectors would be car manufac-
turing, electronics, machinery, and oil.
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
1.6
2.2 2.5
2.1 2.2
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
5
4
3
2
1
0
2.4 2.5
1.8
2.83.1
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Consumer prices
(y-on-y, % change)
5
4
3
2
1
0
3.8
3.2
4.0
2.9
2.7
8. 8
Concerns about government creditworthiness have increased
Concerns about government finances have increased, due to growing public
debt (56% of GDP in 2016 compared to 50% of GDP in 2014) and rising spen-
ding pressures, which are related to major problems at the state-owned and he-
avily leveraged oil company Pemex. In 2015 and early 2016 Pemex’s net losses
doubled, while arrears to providers have mounted and liquidity has decreased.
Subsequent government support for Pemex weighs on sovereign creditworthi-
ness. Despite major cost-cutting plans and debt restructuring, it cannot be ruled
out that the company could require additional support on top of the already
provided capital injections, reduced tax tariffs and credit lines from state-owned
banks.
Some shock-absorbing capabilities
That said, Mexico´s fiscal framework has improved and tax revenues have
increased, following a tax reform passed in 2013. The share of oil in government
revenues declined from more than 30% to 20%. Given the persistently low oil
prices, fiscal consolidation measures have been implemented.
Moreover, Mexico’s resilience is underpinned by a flexible exchange rate and
solid external balances, with limited external refinancing needs. While the cur-
rent account deficit increased to 2.8% of GDP in 2015 due to low oil prices, it is
expected to decrease again in 2016 and 2017, in line with gradually recovering
energy prices. There is additional liquidity potential from a precautionary IMF
credit line of USD 70 billion on which Mexico can draw in times of adverse global
credit conditions. The solvency situation is also robust, with foreign debt ratios
under control.
Crucial reforms have been passed
Since 2013 the Peña Nieto administration and the Mexican Congress have
passed some comprehensive reforms to overcome the economy´s structural
weaknesses: low earnings capacity, limited fiscal flexibility and high dependen-
cy on volatile portfolio capital inflows.
With oil production decreasing over the last ten years and the government´s
high dependence on oil revenues, the centrepiece of the reform efforts has been
the reorganisation of the energy sector. Pemex, the state-owned oil and gas
company, lacks the know-how and financial resources to invest in exploration
and production, mainly because it pays 90% of its revenues to the state. Pemex
therefore urgently needed permission to cooperate with private (foreign)
investors for joint exploration, refining and distribution. Constitutional changes
implemented at the end of 2014 have put an end to Pemex’s 75-year monopoly
and have enabled foreign companies to invest in the exploitation of offshore
oil fields and shale gas. In the face of still low oil prices, the government has so
far adopted a pragmatic approach in its auctions to sell oil exploration rights to
foreign companies, e.g. by adjusting contract terms to make them more friendly
to investors.
Other reforms (liberalisation of the telecommunications and the labour market,
a reform of the tax system to broaden the tax base and to open the monopoli-
sed electricity sector) have made slow, but steady progress so far.
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
-2.4
-2.1
-2.8
-2.2 -2.1
Current account (% of GDP)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
-2.3
-3.2
-3.5
-3.8
-3.4
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
9. 9
A comprehensive implementation of the reforms would increase investment
and significantly improve the economy´s productivity and competitiveness,
raising Mexico´s potential annual GDP growth rate from around 3.0% to 4%-5%
in the long term. However, public protests and political struggles between the
main parties could still derail proper implementation.
Internal security and law enforcement remain issues
More needs to be done to tackle the poor domestic security linked to drug-rela-
ted violence and rampant corruption, which severely affect the business climate
and hamper economic performance by discouraging investors. At the same
time, the profitability of many businesses has suffered from threats and violen-
ce against business owners, including the kidnapping of their family members.
For a solid recovery of the country’s medium-term earnings capacity, Mexico
would need to improve its law enforcement, the independence of the judiciary
system and to overhaul police institutions.
10. 10
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017**
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.2
Consumer prices (y-on-y, % change) 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.3
Private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.6
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.7
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 1.9 2.9 0.3 -0.9 1.4
Unemployment rate (%) 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.8
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) 3.1 4.2 3.7 1.0 4.2
Exports of goods and non-factor services
3.5 4.3 0.1 -0.4 2.8
(y-on-y, % change)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -3.8 -3.5 -3.9 -3.5
Government debt (% of GDP) 121.6 121.2 121.5 123.6 121.5
* estimate **forecast Source: IHS
US industries performance forecast
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
November 2016
USA
China: 21.8 % Canada: 18.6 %
Canada: 13.0 % Mexico: 15.7 %
Mexico: 12.9 % China: 7.7 %
Japan: 5.8 % Japan: 4.2 %
Germany: 5.5 % United Kingdom: 3.7 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
11. 11
The insolvency environment
US corporate insolvencies to increase again in 2016
After sharp year-on-year increases in 2008 and 2009, the number of corpo-
rate insolvencies has steadily decreased every year since. According to figures
provided by the US Courts, the number of business bankruptcies filed in Federal
Courts declined 8.3% year-on-year in 2015, to 24,735 cases.
However, in 2016 business insolvencies are expected to increase again, by
around 4%, as exporting businesses struggle with lost competitiveness due to a
stronger US dollar and the on-going problems in the oil and gas sector. The loss
of profits has forced many oil and gas businesses to file for bankruptcy. Many
companies are highly leveraged, having taken on a lot of debt during the boom
period. At the same time, access to bank funds as well as access to capital mar-
kets has been reduced. In 2017, a modest insolvency decrease of 1% is forecast.
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
5
4
3
2
1
0
1.5
2.6
2.9 2.8
3.2
Main economic developments
Steady but uneven economic growth
After increasing 2.6% in 2015, US economic growth is expected to slow down to
1.5% in 2016, followed by a rebound of 2.2% in 2017. While domestic demand
is the main driver of economic expansion, manufacturing and exports continue
to suffer from a strong USD, and investments are still hampered by the current
problems in the energy sector. Downside risks have increased over the last cou-
ple of months due to increased volatility in the world economy and international
markets, which could hurt US consumer confidence and business sentiment.
Private consumption growth expected to remain robust
Household consumption accounts for almost 70% of US GDP and has been the
most important engine of growth since 2014. Private consumption is expected
to further sustain US economic growth, increasing 2.8% in 2016 and 2.6% in
2017.
Household consumption has been aided by a strong USD, low inflation and
low interest rates. Due to the low interest rate environment, US consumers
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
1.7
2.4 2.6
1.5
2.2
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
0
40,000 40,000
20,000 20,000
60,000 60,000
80,000 80,000
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts; Atradius Economic Research
*forecast
(Calendar year: % change on previous year)
US business insolvencies
% change
0
2009
39.7 %
2010
-7.5 %
2011
-15.1 %
2012
-16.2 %
2013
-17.1 %
2014
-18.8 %
40,075
33,212
26,983
60,837
56,282
47,806
2015 2016*
-8.3 % 4.0 %
24,735
25,720
2017*
-1.0 %
25,460
12. 12
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Unemployment rate (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Industrial production
(y-on-y, % change)
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
7.4
4.8
6.2
4.95.3
1.9
1.4
2.9
-0.9
0.3
have increased their purchases of big-ticket items like cars and houses. The US
consumer price index (CPI) decreased since mid-2014 as a result of declining oil
prices, to 0.1% in 2015, and then increased to just 1.3% in 2016. While the lower
oil price has reduced the profits of producers, it has benefitted consumers, who
have spent extra money.
Another important factor for rising consumer confidence and spending is the
lower unemployment rate, which decreased from 7.4% in 2013 to below 5% in
2016, and is expected to decline further in 2017. Job security has increased and
nominal wages have finally begun to tick up, albeit modestly.
The proportion of working-age Americans, who are economically active reached
62% in September 2015 (the lowest in nearly four decades) and has risen every
month since then to 63% as of March 2016. The gradual rebound of the partici-
pation rate is further evidence of the US labour market becoming more robust,
as it outweighs downward forces such as the retirement of the baby boomer
generation.
A downside risk for household consumption growth in 2016 could be greater
stock market volatility, given the relatively high exposure to equities through
investments and/or retirement savings.
Structural impediments to higher private consumption growth
remain
While private consumption has proven the be the main driver of economic
growth during the last couple of years, it is still not very strong by historical
standards, which is the main reason why yearly GDP growth rates below 3%
seem to be the new normal for the US economy. Average wage growth has been
modest since 2009. While growth in average hourly earnings has increased from
about 2% to around 2.5% since early 2015, this remains sluggish compared to
wage growth before the 2008 crisis, which often exceeded 3%. Additionally, a
large share of job gains have been in low wage industries or part time jobs. At
the same time many households have continued to deleverage, at the expense
of additional spending. Household debt as a share of GDP has decreased from
almost 100% of GDP in 2007 to 78% of GDP in 2015.
Decreasing exports and rising imports have hurt the
manufacturing sector
For the time being, US companies continue to benefit from low financing costs
as the Federal Reserve has, thus far, abstained from raising interest rates in
2016. However, while the strong USD has increased US consumers’ purchasing
power for foreign goods, it has hurt the international competitiveness of US
export businesses, with their profit levels decreasing. Since 2015 US exports
have been contracting, with just a small rebound expected in the course of 2017
at the earliest. At the same time increasing (cheaper) imports continue to crowd
out some domestic producers. This adverse development mainly affects the
manufacturing sector. After feeble growth in 2015 industrial production growth
has contracted in 2016, and is expected to record only modest growth of 1.4% in
2017.
13. 13
2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
Source: IHS
Real fixed investment
(y-on-y, % change)
5
4
3
2
1
0
3.1
4.24.2
1.0
3.7
Investment set to improve
In 2016 business investment remained subdued as the US energy sector adjusts
to the low oil prices. Investment in oil rigs has fallen by almost 70% over the past
two years. Government spending and private investment have also remained
subdued. That said, residential building investment has increased in 2016, and
investment by state and local governments is poised to rebound after years of
austerity. Therefore, real fixed investment is expected to recover in 2017.
An interest rate increase in late 2016?
So far in 2016, the US Federal Reserve has left the overnight lending between
banks in a range of 0.25% to 0.5%, but suggested it would raise them by the end
of the year. Despite on-going economic growth and solid gains, this decision to
delay an interest increase was motivated by increased uncertainty regarding the
global markets and its potential effects on US growth and the inflation rate,
which currently is still below the Fed´s 2% target.
Following the burst of a large debt bubble and the drawdown of household
debt after the 2008 credit crisis, demand for credit has been low. Despite the
effective federal funds rate hovering close to zero since early 2009, lending
growth to households has remained subdued. In 2015, household borrowing
from banks rose only 2.1% compared to 12% prior to 2007. This suggests that in
an environment of deleveraging, the use of monetary policy alone cannot sustain
the recovery.
14. Disclaimer
This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation as to particular
transactions, investments or strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent
decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attempt
to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not
responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All
information in this report is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the
results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no event will Atradius,
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