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The Emerging Rogersville Shale Play: Hurry up and Wait
- 1. The Emerging Rogersville Shale Play: Hurry up and Wait… Dave Harris John Hickman Kentucky Geological Survey University of Kentucky Lexington AAPG Playmaker Forum Pittsburgh April 13, 2016
- 2. Outline of Presentation • Rogersville geologic and geochemical framework • Play status and recent activity • KGS research initiatives and recent Kentucky legislation
- 3. Previous work • Rome Trough Consortium (1999-2002) • Regional stratigraphic and structural study • Cross sections, core descriptions, maps, field study • Hydrocarbon and source rock geochemistry • 2004 Open-file report available at KGS • Study did not consider the unconventional resource potential of the Rogersville Shale • Bob Ryder (USGS) regional cross sections for Appalachian Basin– most available for download at usgs.gov
- 4. Middle Cambrian Paleogeography Ron Blakey, Colorado Plateau Geosystems, Arizona USA
- 5. Rome Trough Structural Features
- 6. Pre-Knox Stratigraphy • Inconsistent names across 3-state area • Problems in defining Rome and Conasauga, Mt. Simon, basal sandstone • Use of Rome in Ohio (Janssens, 1973)
- 7. Stratigraphic Problem 1000 feet 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 4000 7000 800090001000011000120001300014000 Scioto Co., OH Elliott Co., KY Johnson Co., KY DATUM: BASE KNOX GROUP Kentucky River Fault Zone Irvine-Paint Creek Fault Zone • Correlations across growth faults • Biostrat data lacking • Important for prediction of reservoir and source distribution
- 8. 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI Maynardville Ls Nolichucky Shale Maryville Limestone Rogersville Shale Rutledge Ls Pumpkin Valley Sh Rome Formation Rome Fm-Middle Shady Dolomite Basal Sandstone Precambrian Rome Fm-Lower 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 ConasaugaGroupRomeFm. Pre-Knox Type Log U.S. Signal Elkhorn Coal Johnson Co. Kentucky Gamma ray shaded By log-calculated lithologies
- 9. FEET 0 89,186 Cross Section Index Map North South SW NE
- 10. Kentucky River Fault Zone Irvine-Paint Creek shelf Irvine-Paint Creek Fault Zone Rowan KY Elliott KY Elliott KY Morgan KY Morgan KY Wolfe KY Breathitt KY Perry KY Leslie KY <7.63MI> <7.86MI> <7.17MI> <16.66MI> <5.91MI> <12.60MI> <11.93MI> <11.95MI> 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0 200 GR 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3 -0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 60007000 70008000 7000 700080009000100001100012000 7000800090001000011000 80009000 80009000 North South 1,000 feet CONASAUGAROME Grenville Basement
- 11. Pulaski KY Jackson KY Lee KY Wolfe KY Johnson KY Mingo WV Lincoln WV <42.20MI> <19.75MI> <20.67MI> <35.95MI> <30.91MI> <24.92MI> 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0 200 GR 2 3 RHOB 0.3-0.1 NPHI 3000400050006000700080009000 40005000600070008000900010000 3000400050006000700080009000 50006000700080009000100001100012000 7000800090001000011000120001300014000 110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000 110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000 HS=175000 SW NE PETRA 10/1/2004 6:29:01 PM (cross section.CST) 1,000 feet Rome
- 12. East Tennessee Conasauga Outcrops From Rankey and others, 1994 • Large scale depositional cycles • Carbonate ramp thick- ens to east • Intrashelf shale basin to west
- 13. Wayne Lawrence Elliott Carter Morgan Johnson MartinFEET 0 34,330 PETRA 4/25/2014 6:18:23 PM Rome Trough Production Inland 529 White (32 bbl/day Maryville) Exxon Smith Rogersville core Homer Field Carson 1 Kazee 11MMCFD Ashland 1 Williams (1MMCFD Nolichucky Sh.) Faults: Surface Basement
- 15. Cambrian Source Rocks in Rome Trough
- 16. RTC Maturity and Kerogen Data
- 17. min0 10 20 30 40 50 pA 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 FID1 A, (Z:HP6890~1HPCHEM1DATAH01-1218WE32682A.D) n-C8 n-C9 n-C10 n-C11 n-C12 i-C13 i-C14 n-C13 i-C15 n-C14 i-C16 n-C15 n-C16 i-C18 n-C17Pr n-C18Phy n-C19 n-C20 n-C21 n-C22 n-C23 n-C24 n-C25 n-C26 n-C27 n-C28 n-C29 n-C30 n-C31 n-C32 n-C33 n-C34 19 17 1513 pr ph Bitumen Extract - Rogersville Shale No. 1 Smith Wayne Co., WV 11,161.5 ft Oil – Source Rock Correlation 15 13 17 19 ph pr Oil*– Maryville Limestone No. 529 White Boyd Co., Ky 7,574 – 7,598 ft *Data provided by Richard W. Beardsley
- 18. Additional TOC/Rock-Eval Data • GeoMark, 2007 • Talisman, 2009 – 96 samples, 8 wells, no reliable results > 1% • Petro-Hunt, 2011 – 137 samples, 12 Ky. Wells, highest TOC was 0.24% • Cimarex data (2012 and 2014) – Sampled Rogersville cuttings in 12 wells – Of 131 samples, only 4 had TOC > 1% (Exxon Smith and Ashland Williams wells)
- 19. 7000.0 8000.0 9000.0 10000.0 11000.0 12000.0 13000.0 14000.0 15000.0 16000.0 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Depth(ft) Total Organic Carbon (percent) Rogersville Shale (core) Rogersville Shale (cuttings) Rogersville TOC: sample type Exxon Smith core
- 20. Rogersville Shale Summary • 5,000 to 10,000 ft deep in eastern Kentucky • 2–4.8% TOC in parts, and has generated gas & condensate • Up to 1,100 ft thick in Kentucky, but limited to deeper parts of Rome Trough– not all is organic rich
- 21. Rogersville Play Concept • Clues: mature source rock, a few mud logs shows, scattered deep shows and production, reports of overpressure (Gates & Watson, 1975, SPE 5447) • Challenges: mostly 1970’s-vintage logs, poor log data due to borehole washouts, few cores, limited production, precipitous fall in oil and gas prices
- 22. Keys to proving the concept • Confidence in one good data point (Exxon core) • Explaining other discouraging TOC results • Targeting wet gas/condensate area for liquids • Exploiting gray area in regs to keep data tight for 5 years–stratigraphic test drilling permits • Securing strong lease position after first well
- 23. Current Play Status • Five wells drilled to date – Bruin Expl. (Cimarex): apparent discovery (shut-in) Lawrence Co., Kentucky – Cabot Oil & Gas: 1 vertical, Putnam Co., West Virginia, producing dry gas, zone unknown – Chesapeake Energy: 2 verticals (shut-in), Lawrence County, Kentucky – Horiz. Tech. Energy (EQT): 1 horizontal, (under evaluation?), Johnson Co., KY • Three undrilled horizontal lateral permits • Activity on hold due to low prices
- 24. Chesapeake LAW1 Northup Est Bruin Expl 1 Walbridge Hard Rock Expl 1 Young, GD Cabot 50 Amherst Industries Chesapeake LAW1 Stephens, J Bruin Expl 1 Young, S Horiz. Tech Energy 572360 EQT
- 25. Bruin #1 Young Lawrence County • Slickwater frac (677,000 gal fluid, 600,000 lb sand), 576 ft interval • Tested 115 MCFPD and 19 BOPD (5/6/2014), 2599 psi SIP • Shut-in 5/30/2014 • 4,800 ft horizontal lateral permitted Corniferous Rose Hill Shale Clays Ferry & Lexington Knox Nolichucky Maryville Conasauga Rogersville Conasauga 1,968 2,599 3,819 5,333 7,072 7,613 9,652 10,468 11,044 TD 11,967, Rome
- 26. Resulting Leasing Boom • Key Ky. counties: Johnson, Magoffin, Lawrence • More than 4,275 deep leases in 18 months ending 6/15 • Prices per acre: $250- 300 ($25-50 was common 5 years ago) Wes Cate, Global Natural Resource Mgmt, 2015
- 27. Cabot #50 Amherst Industries, Putnam County, WV • Completed in 2015; producing dry gas from ?? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MonthlyGas(MMCF) 079-01538 Cabot 50 Amherst Industries Actual Hyperbolic decline Qt=Qi/((1+0.67*0.5*t)^(1/0.67)) 67.4 2015 | 2016 Projected 20-month cumulative: 305 MMCFG Decline analysis by Brandon Nuttall, KGS 11.6
- 28. Other wells • Horizontal Technology Energy Corp. (EQT) – Johnson County, KY: 4,300 ft lateral drilled/tested • Chesapeake Energy – Two vertical wells re-permitted as oil & gas wells, the Northup as a 5,200 ft lateral
- 29. KGS Research Efforts • Two monitoring programs to collect baseline data: – Microseismic: 12 stations installed; partnering with Cimarex Energy, Nanometrics – Groundwater quality from domestic wells • Establishing background data prior to development will allow recognition of natural vs. man-made events • Goal: avoid induced seismicity, fracking concerns seen in other areas
- 30. KGS Microseismic Station Installation 10/19/2015 Chesapeake #1 Stephens 10/19/2015 Microseismic stations
- 31. New Regulations: 2015 • Senate Bill 186 passed – Provides regulatory certainty for deep shale dev. – New deep well definition (>6,000 ft) – High-volume horizontal fracs: >80,000 gal per stage or 320,000 gal total – For deep HVHF, notify surface owners within 1,000 ft of well head before frac, and surface water/groundwater testing required – FracFocus disclosure required for HVHF within 90 days
- 32. New Regulations: 2016 • Senate Bill 188 passed – Clarifies confidentiality on stratigraphic test permits – Limit of 3 years confidentiality on strat tests – Converting strat test to oil and gas permit reduces confidentiality to 1 year (same as oil and gas permit)
- 33. Conclusions • Cambrian Rogersville Shale petroleum system exists in Rome Trough • Rogersville unconventional play concept has been proven– economic success has not • Data is very scarce, leading to hype and speculation • Activity on hold due to low prices • Play status: WOD (waiting on data)