The Digital Enterprise 2020

The Digital Enterprise 2020; 20/20
Michael Kane
Vice President - Global Center of Excellence
Digital Enterprise Platform Group
SAP Americas

In six years Airbnb grew
to one of world’s largest
hotel companies.
Without owning any
hotels.
Cost of sequencing a
DNA genome is
outpacing Moore’s
Law. It could be as low
as 1 penny by 2020.
10M new
autonomous
vehicles per year
could be driving on
U.S. roads by 2030.
Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar
slashed 65% of San
Francisco taxi rides in
only15 months.
47% of U.S.
employees are at risk
of being replaced by AI
within10years.
DIGITIZATION IS THE CATALYST
Once digitized a thing can be copied
infinitely and perfectly and made instantly
available to everyone. This spurs innovation
and, with it, exponential growth.
Next begins a period of deception because this growth appears linear
at first; demonetization, as expensive goods can now be offered
almost free; dematerialization, when existing products disappear
into other, digital ones; and democratization, as costs drop so low
enough to be affordable by almost everyone.
Credit: “The Six Ds of Exponentials” (Steven Kotler, February 3, 2015)
DISRUPTION EXAMPLES
Self-driving vehicles will dramatically
change driver/passenger experiences,
increase productivity and safety, and
reduce the need to own vehicles for
personal use. The automobile, insurance,
legal, and transportation industries will all
feel theimpact.
Bitcoin threatens to undermine the
traditional roles played by banks and
payment systems by providing a viable
alternative to traditionalcurrency.
3D printing has the potential to render
product complexity essentially free by
bypassing the physical limits of how we
make and ship things. This will funda-
mentally change the manufacturing
and distributionindustries.
Digital bio-fabrication and DNA
sequencing will transform healthcare by
greatly extending lifespans and making
ultra-personalized medicineavailable to
billions.
Organizational structure, the nature
of work, and the limits of human
performance will be rethought, as
leadership, management, and education
are transformed to fit our digital age.
The end-result is disruption, when the
status quo is suddenly overwhelmed and a
whole new market is created.
IDENTIFY
your top competitive
advantages and how
exponentialtechnologies
could disrupt them.
DESCRIBE
your top challenges
and how exponential
technologies could
help solve them.
EVALUATE
which products and
services could be digitized
and what opportunities
this creates for you (and
your competitors).
INVESTIGATE
which technologies
are the most
promising, and begin
today to assess their
potential.
TO DIRECT YOUR DIGITAL FUTURE
Digital
Futures
No. 01
DIRECTYOUR DIGITALFUTURE
Gordon Moore’s venerable law turns 50, a milestone which carries a
powerful inflection point. We’re now at the knee of digital technology’s
exponential growth curve.
Thirty normal steps take you about 30 meters. Thirty exponential
steps (each step twice the distance as the previous one) covers
1,073,742 kilometers or more than 26 times around the earth.

WHERE WILLTHE SELF-DRIVING CAR TAKE US?
Automobiles haven’t changed much since the late 1800s.
They’re faster and more comfortable, but they’re still four
wheels and an engine with a person behind the steering
wheel. That’s all about to change.
Lidar, radar, cameras, sensors, mapping and navigational software, and all the
other technologies necessary to create an autonomous car already exist. Auto
dealers will begin offering self-driving cars within the next five years. And because
they will be safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient than today’s cars,
they’re likely to become the norm, if not mandatory, in many places.
GEAR SHIFTS
We depend so much on cars and trucks that we
rarely think about them. They’re woven so deeply
into our lives and our culture that we simply take
them for granted. Self-driving vehicles will shake up
most of our assumptions.
Safer, more convenient, and more
fuel efficient, they’ll save a
projected US$1.3 trillion a year in
the U.S. alone – an amount equal
to 8 % of the U.S. GDP. This is likely
to make them common, if not
mandatory, in much of the world.
WARNING: SHARP CURVES
AHEAD
Cars that drive themselves will be a
profound shift that touches almost
every industry, geography, and aspect
of life:
Cost of adding self-driving
technology to a vehicle:
US$8K−$10K and dropping.
The 1.2 billion cars on the
roads are used just 4% of
the time. That’s 8.2 trillion
hours of nonuse per
year.
2020: fully
autonomous cars
arrive in dealerships.
Software will make up
as much as 40% of a
car’s value.
5.AGING
Seniors who would
otherwise be stuck at
home will be able to
summon self-driving
transportation to the doctor,
to shops and restaurants,
and to visit friends
and family.
1.OUR HOMETOWNS
Self-driving cars could
increase suburban sprawl
by making long commutes
more pleasant, but they
could also make urban living
more appealing by reducing
traffic, parking problems,
and inefficient mass transit.
6.SAFETY
Even when cars can choose
their own routes, they’ll still
need manual overrides and
programming exceptions for
things that interfere with
navigation, like bad weather,
or emergencies that require
a fast trip to the nearest ER.
2. CAR CULTURE
Car ownership could increase
as vehicles find the best
routes and parking spaces on
their own. However, a car-
sharing model might prevail
when cars can guide
themselves from one user to
the next.
7.LIABILITY
When the driver isn’t
controlling the ride,
manufacturers and software
companies could be
responsible for payments
related to an accident.
Their deeper pockets could
drive up awards for damages
and change both the rates
and structure of insurance
coverage.
3. CAR DESIGN
Cars will look different.
Steering wheels, large
windows, and even headlights
could be things of the past.
Cars will become highly
aerodynamic, with interiors
designed solely for the
entertainment and comfort
of theoccupants.
8. THE AUTO INDUSTRY
Self-driving cars will disrupt
the entire automotive
industry, from manufacturing
to ownership. Software that
manages the car will be close
to 40% of the vehicle’s total
value. Cars will generate vast
amounts of data that will
have to be processed,
analyzed, and protected.
4.TRAVELCONDITIONS
Once everyone is free to
work and play in their cars,
automakers, OEMs, and
content providers will
compete to deliver apps,
content, and user interfaces
to make the ride more
entertaining and productive.
Digital
Futures
No. 02

DRONES: TOMORROW’S “I” IN THE SKY
The first drones were remote-controlled model planes used in World War I
to surveil battlefields. Today, a drone is any unmanned aerial vehicle that
combines a power source, sensors or cameras, intelligent software, and a
communication link to its operator. But they are much more.
Drones are ideal for taking exponential technologies anywhere we want to send
them. What’s more, they’re getting exponentially simpler, safer, smaller, and more
powerful with each turn of the Moore’s Law crank. We’re hurtling toward a future in
which drones are widely available, increasingly autonomous, and capable of tasks
we haven’t begun to imagine.
On the other hand, drones may have enormous
ramifications on personal security and privacy, creating a
world in which everything is recorded, monitored, and
indexed for searching and analysis.
PROJECTING A FLIGHT PATH
Drones promise a world where we can capture any
imaginable information from any conceivable location, see
and understand places previously beyond our reach, and
affect environments in ways we’re barely beginning to
understand.
TRAJECTING UPWARDS,
QUICKLY
The same rules of exponential
growth accelerating other
technologies suggest drones will
be a thousand times more
powerful in the next decade.
Imagine when drones are:
1.Tiny
Some experts predict drones the size
of a housefly − or even smaller. Think
injectable medical nanodrones.
2.Infinitely versatile
Drones could pollinate flowers, perform
microsurgery, deliver cargo, provide
wireless Internet access, even build using
3D printers.
3.Completely autonomous
They will make their own decisions,
within assigned parameters, about what
to seek out, sense, and transmit.
4.Hyperconnected
They’ll work together in swarms, fly in
formation, and share data that helps them
avoid obstacles and choose the most
efficient routes.
5.Affordable by anyone
Better materials, batteries, and propulsion
will lower costs to the point where drones
can deliver high performance to
organizations or individuals for just a few
dollars each.
DRONES IN ACTION
Today’s drones combine more energy efficiency,
smarter software, and an expanding array of
sensors to augment human capabilities in a
range of commercial industries.
Agriculture: assessing crop
health, monitoring irrigation
systems, and tracking
livestock
Emergency response:
spotting forest fires,
conducting search and
rescue missions, and
delivering food and medical
supplies to war zones and
remotevillages
Utilities: inspecting wires,
towers, power plants, and
pipelines
Scientific research: tracking
animal migrations, reporting
on weather patterns, and
finding previously unknown
artifacts
Real estate: inspecting
construction and
improving security
News and entertainment:
taking photos and videos
from previously unreachable
vantagepoints
The global market for
commercial drones will rise
from $15.22M in 2014 to
$1.27B in 2020: triplingevery
18months,fastereven
thanMoore’s Law.
800 million people
worldwide have limited
access to emergency
services due to weak
transportation
infrastructure.
Cargo drones could
turbocharge economic
development inAfrica,
where only 16% of roadsare
paved.
Solar-powered drones will
provide Internet,Wi-Fi,and
telecom services to people in
remote places on earth.
Digital
Futures
No. 03

MAKERS SHAKE UP MANUFACTURING
Figuring out what customers want can be a fruitless exercise. Traditional
methods often leave companies guessing at real desires, and mass
customization is complex and expensive for many products. But what would
happen if customers could design and produce their own products?
The maker movement is growing up quickly. Individuals and startups increasingly
bypass traditional industry to produce bespoke goods on their own. As 3D
printing technology accelerates, hackerspaces are democratizing high-end
production tools. And with new crowdfunding and online retail options, control
over product development and production will return to the individual.
Cannibalize existing
business models,and
reorganize around
individual buyer and
maker needs.
Figure out how to
manage IP protection,
product quality,
corporate responsibility,
and innovation in a
highly distributed
environment.
Companies must help
customers customize,
or else customers will do
it on theirown.
A MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Technological and sociological shifts will turn the
industrial revolution on its head. Today most products
are designed for manufacturers −to make production
easier. Inthe near future, products will be designed for
and by individuals.
This transformation has already begun. Coca-Cola introduced the
Freestyle fountain, and now soda buyers can create their own
concoction from more than 100 flavors. NIKEiD lets people put their
personal stamp on sneakers, and Hershey partnered with 3D Systems
to create the CoCoJet 3D printer.
The 3D printing
market will
quadruple to
US$12billion.
In 2006 the San
Francisco MakerFaire
attracted 65,000.
Last year 130,000
attended, and 85,000
in New York.
Peer-to-peer e-commerce
site Etsy’s revenue nearly
quadrupled in only 4 years
− from US$525 million in
2011 to US$1.9 billion in
2014.
Crowdfunding
campaigns generated
US$11.08 billion in
2014. The market
will grow to US$93
billion by 2025.
A MAKER MAINSTREAM
As customization becomes a matter of changing code rather than
retooling an assembly floor, it will become the norm.
INDIVIDUAL-CENTERED INNOVATION.
Today, innovation is tucked away in R&D departments,
funding is provided by corporate finance, and production
takes place a world away. Twenty years from now, it will
take place in your neighborhood.
A LOT SIZE OF ONE.
As 3D printing accelerates and comes down in price,
more goods that once required economies of scale from a
centralized factory will be produced at or near their point
of use.
CREATIVITY, CRAFTSMANSHIP, COMMUNITY.
Creative subcultures will flourish as individuals
collaborate on ideas, funding, and production. Some
may flock to cities and towns; others will work together
virtually.
MAKER MOVEMENT
MANDATES
$
Digital
Futures
No. 04
IP: THE CORPORATE ASSET.
It will not be that you produce something that delivers
value but that you know how to produce it − and in myriad
ways. Instead of designing, manufacturing, and delivering
products, companies will design and deliver IP..

BITCOIN’S BLOCKCHAIN:
A NEW MODEL FOR TRUST
If you think a digital currency like Bitcoin isn’t relevant to
your business, think again. Bitcoin probably won’t replace the
dollar, pound, euro, or yen, but its underlying technology –
the blockchain – could challenge our assumptions about what
makes commerce secure and trustworthy.
The blockchain model of trust, through massively distributed digital consensus, could
have disruptive potential equal to the Internet in the 1990s. This computer science
breakthrough could reshape commerce across the entire digital economy.
The Bitcoin blockchain — the
digital ledger of transactions
— is growing exponentially
and doubledto 40GB from
August2014 toAugust2015.
As of August 2015, the
Bitcoin blockchain alone
was already solving nearly
400 billion complex
mathematical equations
per second.
Honduras began
creating land titles
based on blockchain
technologyin May
2015.
Visa, the world’s largest pay-
ment network, is launching
a blockchain technology
development team to bring
secure digital finance to
unbankedconsumers.
The blockchain is a
distributed digital ledger
that uses a Breakthrough
in computer science to
authenticate the
transactions within it.
The blockchain can
replace trusted third
parties, like banks, in
guaranteeing transactions
and coordinates
agreement among all
parties.
It strongly resists
interference. Entries are
protected with cryptography
that becomes increasingly
secure as the number of
transactions and
participants grows.
TRUST BY DISTRIBUTED DIGITAL CONSENSUS
BLOCKCHAINS WILL KEEP US TOGETHER
Every stage of a transaction is recorded and
authenticated by the blockchain. As a result, its utility goes
beyond currency. In theory, the blockchain could be used
for any transaction that must be secure and verifiable.
For example:
Personal documentation, including
birth certificates, passports, wills, voter
registrations, criminal records, and
medical records
Business documentation, such as building
permits, vehicle registrations, health and
safety inspections, business licenses,
leases,anddeeds
Establishing ownershipandprovenance
of all kinds of intellectual property, from
artwork to software code
Managing ownership of and access to
homes, vehicles, safe deposit boxes, and
other physical objects
Legal compliance that verifies the chain
of custody of sensitive data, manages
software and hardware licenses, and
protects patents, copyrights, and
trademarks
Financial transactions, from stock and
bond trading to the release of funds only
when predetermined conditionsare met
Digital
Futures
No. 05

BLENDING THE BEST OF PEOPLE AND MACHINES
Humans have always been fascinated with robotics, but legends
like Isaac Asimov’s code of robot ethics, James Cameron’s cyborg
assassin, and Marvel Comics’ Iron Man have been the stuff of
science fiction. That is about to change.
Automation and artificial intelligence will affect every aspect of human life.
but the future needn’t be a dystopian one. As robots take over increasingly
complex tasks, new forms of man-machine interaction will emerge and
industry and society will evolve to accommodate a symbiotic relationship.
WE, ROBOT
Converging trends will spur new forms of
robotics – flexible, sensory, tactile, intelligent,
and interactive – with capabilities far beyond
what we envision today.
Robots complement the workforce by crunching numbers, lifting
heavy objects, working in dangerous places, moving with precision,
and performing repetitive tasks. This leads many people to ask if
robots might replace us for all endeavors. But human advantages
include creativity, curiosity, empathy, self-motivation, and the
ability to provide multidimensional feedback. Using advanced
robotics technology, we can blend the best of people and
machines.
The robotics market will
grow 9.5% per year to
US$66.9B by 2025.
Military and industrial uses
will be 60% of the total.
Image and speech
recognition technologies
are advancing quickly
and could soon equal
human abilities.
Tactiletechnologyis
improvingrapidlydue
to research and
development inrobot
-assisted medicine.
The virtual reality market
will grow to US$30B in the
next five years,while
augmented reality will be
a US$120B business by
2020.
WE’VE ALREADY BEGUN
• New York University and the
Florida Institute for Human and
Machine Cognition are
developing exoskeletons for the
disabled.
• The U.S. military is developing
an “Iron Man” suit that could
include super-human strength
and respond directly to brain
functions.
• A team of researchers at
Harvard University have created
a “smart suit” that makes its
wearer faster, stronger, and
more agile.
WORKING WITH THE MACHINES
Advances in speech and image
recognition, analytics, and virtual
reality will spur robot
development along twopaths:
• A new class of human-machine units
with defined autonomy, heightened
empathy, and significant artificial
intelligence
• Artificial human extensions like
stronger arms and legs, night vision,
and other sensory enhancements
The result? Challenges like
colonizing our oceans or space
travel will be realized in ways that
we could not accomplish alone.
THE UPSIDE OF CO-EVOLUTION
Collaboration with robots will spur innovation,
growth, and new ways of working. Rather than
fear robot takeovers, it’s better to:
• Digitize processes ripe for automation.
Identify those that benefit from human
advantages but might be improved by robot-
human collaboration.
• Experiment with robot technologies as they
emerge. Consider pilots in production and
supply chains.
• Invite employees to propose new ideas. Be
open to entirely new robot forms and
functions.
• Develop future scenarios based on your
unique business model and industry needs.
Digital
Futures
No. 06

CYBERSECURITY: PROTECTING
A HACKABLE WORLD
The Internet was created to share data not protect it. But as the
Internet becomes more central to daily life and grows to include
billions of networkable items, guarding it has become a gargantuan
challenge. It’s hard to lock down a system that was deliberately
designed for openness, resilience, and scale. Some say only a
massive global initiative will do.
1999: “White hat”hackers
predict the dangers of
ubiquitous networking.
January 2014: Security pros
uncover a spambot network of
more than 100,000 smart
devices, including a refrigerator.
July 2015:
Hackers prove
they can remotely
highjack a car.
September 2015:
Researchers find potential
vulnerabilities in 68,000
medical devices.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Security tools and procedures are
complex and costly. Some businesses
fail to implement them because they
don’t understand their risk exposure.
Others understandably choose to
prioritize things with a direct,
tangible effect on the bottom line, like
customer service.
Traditionally, liability for security breaches has landed
not on companies that have failed to secure their
systems but on the software and hardware companies
that make or manage those systems. This is
changing, however. Enterprises can no longer
consider cybersecurity someone else’s problem.
Practice basic digital hygiene by
using robust passwords, two-factor
authentication, and hard drive
encryption whenever possible – and
by taking social media privacy
settings seriously.
Plan and invest to secure
the data interactions,
transactions, and
identities of customers,
employees, and partners.
Some experts even
recommend using honest
hackers to expose
vulnerabilities and help
develop strongerdefenses.
But these may not be enough. With today’s cyber criminals circumventing security measures as fast as they’re developed, we may need to consider a
global response – one with the intensity of the effort that took humanity to the moon in 1969. The future of the Digital Economy could depend on it.
RISING RISKS, INCREASED ATTENTION
We finally understand that when everything is networked, anything can be hacked. As
organizations and individuals become increasingly digital, we’re exponentially more
vulnerable to cybersecurity breaches. However, openness is so baked into the fundamental
structure of the Internet that re-engineering it for greater security is an enormous challenge.
The Internet is now too embedded in modern society to avoid. Our only choice is to ensure
that this global network can be trusted with our most critical services and transactions. At a
minimum we must take the following actions:
Digital
Futures
No. 07

VIRTUALREALITYGETS REAL
Virtual reality (VR), the use of digital technology to create immersive
simulations, was once the stuff of science fiction. So was augmented
reality (AR), which lets users interact with digital content that’s overlaid
on the real world. But thanks to Moore’s Law, VR and AR are about to go
mainstream.
With digitally enhanced realities firmly in the bend of the exponential growth
curve, current uses for VR and AR suggest amazing possibilities for the future.
They may even transform our very definition of reality.
TV weather reports
adopted the firstapplication
of AR on TV in 1975. The
term virtual reality was
first coined in 1989.
Oculus Rift raised
US$2.5 million on Kickstarter
in August 2012. Facebook
boughtthe company for $2
billion18 months later.
Overall, AR and VR
revenues are
predicted toreach
$150 billionby2020.
By 2020, 103 million
automobileswill
contain AR
technology.
VR’s potential for extending
human perceptions beyond our
current abilities could create a
truly mind-bendingfuture:
We might use AR or VR for hyper-
spectral imaging beyond the
visible electromagnetic spectrum
to let us “see” valuable mineral
deposits, hazardous emissions,
or even malignant tumors.
We might wear clothing that
converts data into tactile
sensations so we can feel an
audience responding on social
media as we deliver a speech
or sense aircraft flight
dynamics as immersively as a
birddoes.
CEOs might someday wear a
glasses-and-vest combination
that lets them see and feel, in
real time, how different parts of
the business are running.
REDEFINING REALITY
Retailers will let you try on a
dozen outfits in a few minutes
using an avatar customized to
your measurements.
Car dealers will let you sit
in VR simulations of new
models.
AR devices will overlay
diagnostic and treatment
information on patients’
bodies in the medical office
or operatingroom.
VR will let medical students
practice complexprocedures
safely using simulated
patients.
Anxiety sufferers will learn to
control panic attacks with
VR/AR games they navigate
by controlling their breathing.
COMING SOON
TOMS Shoes shows customers
the impact of their charitable
donations with a four-minute
VR video that visits the
residents of a Peruvian village.
The Los Angeles
Philharmonic immerses you
in the middle of the music
with a VR trip into the
orchestra pit and onto the
conductor’s podium.
Lowe’s lets customers re-create
their bathrooms in an AR space,
position new fixtures, and walk
through the simulated
renovation.
Researchers have developed VR
experiences that work as well
as the current standard for
assessing cognitive function after
a brain injury.
Clinics are testingVR technology
as a safe, private way to distract
patients from chronic pain and
help phobia sufferers overcome
their fears.
ALREADY IN ACTION
Digital
Futures
No. 08
WE’LL MOVE BEYOND CREATING DIGITAL INTERPRETATIONS
OF REALITY AND LIVE IN A WORLD WHERE REALITY ITSELF IS

DIGITAL MEDICINE: HEALING BETTER
The human body is difficult to understand and predict. X does
not necessarily lead to Y. Disease has multiple causal components.
That complexity is one reason healthcare has remained largely
immune to the transformative potential of technology.
However, several converging trends could change this. Access to an
abundance of genetic, phenotypic, and clinical data; real-time and in-
memory computing for advanced analytics; and a digitized, connected
patient population could make possible a better understanding of the
intricacies of human health.
Remote patient monitoring
for conditions like heart
disease,asthma, and
diabetes could save more
than US$200billion.
Telehealth options
(estimated to be a $25
billionmarket
in 2015) for routine and
psychological care could
save $100 billion.
The global medical
technology market is
estimatedto reach
$513.5billionby2020, from
$363.8 billionin 2013.
In 2015, the U.S. Food
and Drug
Administration
approved thefirst
3D-printeddrug.
TREATING THE INDIVIDUAL
Pharmacogenomics and predictive
biomarkers will match patients with
the best drugs or treatments.
Advanced analytic engines and
algorithms will enable doctors to
tailor treatment plans in real time.
3D printers will produce living tissue,
organs, prosthetics, and implants
customized for individuals.
Robots and drones will enable more
exacting surgical interventions.
Low-cost gene-editing solutions will
go from laboratory to doctor’s office.
VITAL SIGNS OF CHANGE
It’s possible to gather more health-related data than ever. But the digital
medical revolution will go far beyond wireless tracking devices that monitor
how we perform against fitness goals. Researchers and enterprises are
developing devices to collect ever-more detailed health information from
individuals and relay it to healthcare providers.
Data sharing between companies and customers lowers costs and improves quality in a
range of industries and could do the same for healthcare. Rapidly improving data
collection and analytics are enabling a pluralistic approach to care that will finally shift
focus from treating the sick to preventing illness.
Rapidly advancing technologies will
enable much better patient care.
THE UPSIDE OF COMPLEXITY
Big data alone will not cure what ails healthcare. But today’s
reactive, one-size-fits-all system will move to proactive,
individualized delivery of health management and disease
prevention – if the industry chooses to manage complexity
rather than work around it.
WE CAN GET THERE FROM HERE
THE INDUSTRY MUST EMBRACE NEW PROCESSES
CENTERED ON OUTCOMES AND CONSUMER CONTROLS.
THERE SHOULD BE DEBATES OVER THE ETHICS OF
PREDICTIVE MEDICINE AND DNA-BASED CARE.
PRIVACY AND SECURITY ISSUES WILL BE PARAMOUNT;
HACKING IS EVEN MORE OMINOUS IN THE HEALTHCARE
SETTING, FROM THE BREACH OF PERSONAL MEDICAL DATA
TO THE THREAT OF MALWARE IN MEDICAL DEVICES.
However, other industries have addressed similar security,
privacy, and change management issues required for digital
transformation. Healthcare can follow suit. The resulting
transformation would not only save resources but also lives.
Digital
Futures
No. 09

ENVELOPED BY AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE
The logical evolution of the Internet of Things is a world where
everything around us is instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent.
We will move through a world in which our surroundings are smart
enough to react to our voices and gestures – or respond to us
automatically, proactively, almost incidentally.
And that shift is coming sooner than you might expect.
Digital
Futures
No. 10
1Integrate information flow across devices,
manufacturers data types and technology,
Credit: Deloitte Consulting, 2015
INTERSECTING TRENDS
Powerful emerging technologies will overlapand
intersect:
THE INTERNET OF NOT THINGS
As sensors and devices become smaller,
smarter, and more integrated, they will fade
into the background, melding into a digital
infrastructure that responds proactively to
the environment and the people init.
At a minimum, the infrastructure must
achieve these capabilities:
1trillion sensors
will be connected
to the Internet by
2022.
Appliances and home
automation will account for
more than halfof household
Internettrafficby 2024.
The first“smart city” with
Internet-connected, automated
roads,services, and utilities will
emerge by 2026.
Over 8 billion ambient
intelligencesmartphone
apps will be downloaded
in 2020.
Sensors and actuators,
including implantables
and wearables, which will
capture and act on data
from vastly more objects
and places
Interfaces will be
powered by vision and /
or gesture, which will
create a highly interactive
world
Ubiquitous computing
and hyperconnectivity,
which will exponentially
increase interaction and
intelligence
Virtual and augmented
reality, which will extend
and enhance our senses
The differences between drones, robots, and
autonomous vehicles are already blurring.
Nanotechnology and
nanomaterials, which will
enable highly complex
devices at a microscopic
scale
Artificial intelligence,
which lets machines learn
from their environment
and each other
TRYING IT ON, NOW
We need to think about what it means to
be surrounded by largely invisible systems
that can sense, reason, act, and interact
with and forus.
AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE WILL CREATE VALUE IN WAYS WE HAVE YET
TO IMAGINE, WHILE RAISING PROFOUND QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT
IT MEANS TO BE HUMAN.
Artificial intelligence is already good
enough at pattern matching to learn
and make complex decisions without
human intervention.
Home automation makes it possible for
lights, air conditioners, security systems,
entertainment systems, and appliances
to run independently.
2Analyze and manage objects and low level
events to detect signals and predict impact
3Orchestrate simple events and objects to
fulfill complex events and end-to-end processes
4End to end security and monitoring across
devices, connections, and information
exchange

City of Boston
Improving public services and providing its citizens instant insight
• Winner of the Driving Digital
Government Award.
• Boston About Results (BAR) is the
City’s performance metrics system
that turns real-time data into
measurable outcomes.
• With the right technology, Boston is
able to proactively troubleshoot
issues and reach strategic policy goals.
ClicktoRun:

© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 13Customer
City of Nanjing China
Visualizing traffic flows for better city planning

Hamburg Port Authority
Doubling the goods flowing through the port

American Society of Clinical Oncology
Fighting cancer with CancerLinQ

Why SAP To Address Digital Trends?
Sap Has Transformed To Meet Your Digital Needs
• 80 million business
cloud users
• 1.9 million connected
businesses
• $800 billion+ in B2B
commerce
• 99%+ of mobile
devices connected
with SAP messaging
• 75k employees
representing 120
nationalities
• 295K customers
• Operating in 191
countries
• 2011 SAP HANA launched
• 2012 SAP Cloud launched
• 2014 SAP business networks
are the largest marketplace
in the world
• 2015 SAP HANA Cloud
Platform
• 2015 SAP S/4HANA: Most
modern ERP system
• Solutions for 25
industries and 12
LoBs
• 98% of top valued
brands are our
customers
• 74% of world’s
transactions
managed on SAP

Industry’s
Largest Base
Of Cloud Users
Industry’s Most
Comprehensive
Cloud Portfolio
The Leading
Social Business
Platform
The Largest,
Most Global,
Comprehensive
Business
Network
Largest
Business Cloud
Deployments
Annualized Run
Rate In SAP
Cloud Business
More business
professionals
use Cloud
solutions from
SAP than from
any other
vendor on the
planet.
#1 in HCM,
Procurement,
Business
Networks and
Social
Collaboration
covering all lines
of business
More users than
Chatter, Yammer
1.6 M connected
companies in 190
countries
transacting over
$600B in
commerce
annually
Some with about
2 million users.
Public, private
and managed
service offerings
Over 40%
year-over-year
growth in the
cloud
44M 30+ 15M+ $600B+ ~2M $2.3B+
SAP - The Fastest Growing Enterprise Cloud Company At Scale

First, Relational Databases Solved Our ProblemSecond, Summarizing/Aggregating Solved Our Problem
Historically Performance Has Been Limited by Disk Based Databases
Sales
Reporting
Revenue
Forecasting
Expense
Planning
Annual Budget
Product
Profitability
CAPEX
Planning
Financial
Consolidations
Management
Reporting
YTD
Net Income =
(Revenues-Expenses)
CORP
EMEA
U.S.
Now, Static Aggregation Takes Too LongDynamic Aggregation Would Eliminate All This Complexity

YTD
Net Income =
(Revenues-Expenses)
CORP
EMEA
U.S.
The Technology Exists Today To Dynamically Aggregate The Massive
Number Of Calculations from the Raw Business Transactions
Using on Chip Massive Parallel Processing (MPP)
Multi-core Parallelism on Intel E7 Processors
16 Cores/CPU, 8 CPUs System = +600B scans/sec
Access to Data in Real-Time, for Real-Time Business Decisions

SAP Framework for Digital Businesses
Connect core business with people and things via a unified platform
Platform
HANA
any DB Hadoop
Business
Suite
Applications
S/4HANA
Icon
Analytics
SAP
Analytics
Suite
Vora
Distributed Computing
Platform
ExtensionsApplications
HANA Cloud Platform
(Micro-) Services
IoT
Platform
Management Identity
BusinessNetwork
CEC

21
Winning Combinations
SAP HANA* and Intel® Xeon® processors help
customers get the most from their growing data
*See the latest SAP HANA* certified OEMs and appliances: http://global.sap.com/community/ebook/2014-09-02-hana-hardware/enEN/index.html
Software and workloads used in performance tests may have been optimized for performance only on Intel microprocessors.
Optimized for Flexibility
Deploy SAP HANA
On premises On demand/
hybrid cloud
Built for Each Other
More transactions
per minute
Collaborative Partnership
Using your platform of choice from 15
industry leading OEMs* & CSPson the Intel Xeon processor E7 v3 family1, 2
+

Summary
The Digital Enterprise 2020; 20/20
• Digital Is Disrupting Everything – It Is Not Hyperbole, A Trend Or A Hot Topic
• You Need To Think Ahead To Meet The Digital Transformation Challenge
• No Digital Transformation Journey Should Be Taken Alone

Issue 01:DirectYour DigitalFuture
In six years Airbnb grew to one of world’s largest hotel companies. Without
owning any hotels.“Airbnb Catching Chains in Bookings,” accommnews,
January 21, 2015, http:// www.accomnews.com/industry/154- news-in-
brief/4733-airbnb-catching-chains-in- bookings
The cost of sequencing a DNA genome is outpacing Moore’s Law. It could be as
low as US$0.01 by 2020 Antonio Regalado,“EmTech: Illumina Says 228,000
Human Genomes WillBe Sequenced This Year,”MIT Technology Review,
September 24, 2014, http://www. technologyreview.com/news/531091/emtech-
illumina-says-228000-human-genomes- will- be-sequenced-this-year/
James Bannon,“Heading for $100: The Declining Costs of Genome
Sequencing & the Consequences,”(Ark Invest, 2014), http://ark-
invest.com/genomic-revolution/declining- costs-of-genome-sequencing
Art Wuster,“Is It Cheaper to Re-sequence a Genome Than to Save It in
Computer Memory? Seqonomics, December 9, 2011,
http://seqonomics.blogspot.com/2011/12/ is-it-cheaper-to-re-sequence-
genome.html
10M autonomous new vehicles per year could be driving on U.S. roads by
2030.“Half of New Vehicles Shipping in North America to Have Driverless, Robotic
Capabilities by 2032” (press release), ABI Research, August 27, 2013,
https://www.abiresearch.com/press/
half-of-new-vehicles- shipping-in-north-america-to-/
In 2000 starting an Internet company cost US$5M. Today it’s less than
US$5,000. Peter Diamandis,“Evidence of Abundance #16: 1,000 Times
Cheaper to Launch a Startup, 2014,” Huffington Post, October 30, 2014,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peterdiamandis/evidence-of-abundance-
16_b_5915712.html
Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar slashed 65% of San Francisco taxi rides in only 15
months. Jessica Kwong,“Report Says SFTaxis Suffering Greatly,”The
Examiner, September 16, 2014,
http://archives.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/report-says-sf-taxis-suffering-greatly/
Content?oid=2899618
47% of U.S. employees are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence
within 10 years. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of
Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford:
University of Oxford, 2013), http://
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.p
df
Issue 02:WhereWillthe Self-DrivingCarTakeUs?
The cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and
dropping. Alex Davies,“Turns Out the Hardware in Self-Driving Cars Is Pretty
Cheap,”WIRED. com, April 22, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-
sensors-autonomous- cars/?mbid=social_twitter
Average savings in the U.S. alone: $1.3 trillion – 8% of the U.S. GDP.
Autonomous Cars: Self-DrivingtheNew AutoIndustryParadigm, Morgan Stanley
Research, November 6, 2013, http://www.wisburg.com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/09/%EF%BC%88109- pages-
2014%EF%BC%89MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-
CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-
PARADIGM.pdf
The 1.2 billioncars on the roads are used just 4% of the time. That’s 8.2 trillion
hours of nonuse per year.Andrew Simonetti,“The Futurist – Uber, Take the
Wheel,”TheDaily, April 13, 2015,
http://www.dailyuw.com/opinion/article_a3911e4a-e244-11e4-a1f7-
8fbb1ff20a33.html
2020: fully autonomous cars arrive in dealerships.“Everyone WillHave Self-
Driving Car By 2026, Analyst Says,” TheHuffingtonPost – Tech, February 28,
2014, http:// www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/27/morgan-stanley-
autonomous-cars- prediction_n_4867613.html
Software will make up as much as 40% of a car’s value. Autonomous Cars:
Self- Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm, Morgan Stanley Research,
November 6, 2013, http://www.wisburg.com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/09/%EF%BC%88109- pages-
2014%EF%BC%89MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-
AUTONOMOUS- CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-
AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
Issue 03: Drones:Tomorrow’s “I”in the Sky
The first GPS receiver weighed 50 pounds and cost more than
US$100,000. Today, a 0.3-gram GPS chip costs less than US$5. Peter
Diamandis,“Top 10 Reasons Drones Are Disruptive,”Forbes.com,August 11,
2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/ peterdiamandis/2014/08/11/top-10-
reasons-drones-are-disruptive/
The global market for commercial drones will rise from US$15.22M in 2014 to
US$1.27B in 2020. This is a tripling every 18 months – faster than even Moore’s
Law. UAVDrone Marketfor CommercialWorth$1.27Billion by2020,
MarketsandMarkets, February, 2015,
http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/commercial-drones.asp
800 million people worldwide have limited access to emergency services
due to weak transportation infrastructure. J.M. Ledgard and Scott
MacMillan,“Drones for Development,” Project Syndicate,June 5, 2015,
http://www.project-syndicate.org/
commentary/drones-africa-development-by-j-m-ledgard-and-scott-macmillan-
2015-06
Cargo drones could turbocharge economic development in Africa, where only
16% of roads are paved. J. M. Ledgard,“Better Use of the Lower Sky in a
Sharing Economy,” Medium, September 23, 2014,
https://medium.com/@eternaut/build-cargo-drones-get- rich-9b858dffaba
Solar-powered drones will provide Internet, Wi-Fi, and telecom services to people
in remote places on earth. Thomas Frey,“Engineering the Secret Engines of Off-
Grid Living,” Futurist Speaker, June 24, 2015,
http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2015/06/engineering- the-secret-engines-of-off-
grid-living/
Issue 04: Makers Shake Up Manufacturing
The 3D printing market will quadruple to US$12 billion by 2025.“3D Printing
Market to Quadruple to $12 Billion in 2025” [press release], Lux Research, April
29, 2014, http:// www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-
releases/read/3d-printing-market- quadruple-12-billion-2025
In 2006 the San Francisco MakerFaire attracted 65,000 enthusiasts. Last year
130,000 attended, and another 85,000 attended in New York. Maker Faire: A
Bit of History,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11,2015,
http://makerfaire.com/makerfairehistory/
“Media Kit & Press Resources,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11,2015,
http:// makerfaire.com/media-kit-press-resources/
Today, there are 1,100 hackerspaces around the world giving people access to
production tools once available only to corporations.“List of Hacker Spaces,”
hackerpaces.org, accessed August 11,2015,
https://wiki.hackerspaces.org/List_of_Hacker_Spaces
Peer-to-peer e-commerce site Etsy’s revenue nearly quadrupled in only 4 years −
from US$525 millionin 2011 to US$1.9 billion in 2014. Ruth Reader,“Etsy Starts
Trading on the Nasdaq at $31 per Share — Nearly Double Its Original
Price,”VentureBeat, April 16,2015, http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/16/etsy-starts-
trading-on-the-nasdaq-at-31-per- share-nearly-double-its-original-price/
Crowdfunding campaigns generated US$11.08 billion in 2014.The market will
grow to US$93 billion by 2025. Katie Kuehner-Hebert,“Crowdfunding Volumes
Grow to $16B”, CFO.com, April 2, 2015, http://ww2.cfo.com/credit-
capital/2015/04/crowdfunding- volumes-grow-16b/
Crowdfunding’s Potential for the Developing World (Washington, DC: infoDev,
Finance and Private Sector Development Department, The World Bank,
2013), http://www. infodev.org/infodev-files/wb_crowdfundingreport-v12.pdf
Issue 05: Bitcoin’sBlockchain – A New Model ForTrust
The Bitcoin blockchain — the digital ledger of transactions — is growing
exponentially, and doubled to 40GB from August 2014 to August 2015.
Blockchain.info, Blockchain Size graph, https://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-
size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false
&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
As of August 2015, the Bitcoin blockchain was already solving nearly 400 billion
complex mathematical equations per second. Blockchain.info, Hash Rate graph,
https:// blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
The first worldwide conference on applying blockchain technology was held on
May 28, 2015. The Block Chain Summit, http://www.blockchainsummit.io/
Honduras began creating land titles based on blockchain technology in May
2015. Gertrude Chavez-Freyfuss,“Honduras to build land title registry using bitcoin
technology”, Reuters, May 15th, 2015, http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/usa-
honduras- technology-idINKBN0O01V720150515
Visa, the world’s largest payment network, is launching a blockchain technology
development team to bring secure digital finance to unbanked consumers. Giulio
Prisco, “Visa to Deploy Blockchain Research Team in Bangalore, India”,Bitcoin
Magazine, August 12th, 2015, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21547/visa-deploy-
blockchain-research-team- bangalore-india/
SOURCES
Issue 06: Blending the Best of People and Machines
The robotics market will grow 9.5% per year to US$66.9B by 2025. Military and
industrial uses will be 60% of the total ($US41B). Commercial and personal
uses will grow even faster. Alison Sander and Meldon Wolfgang,“The Rise of
Robotics”, bcg.perspectives, August 27, 2014,
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/business_unit_
strategy_innovation_rise_of_robotics/#
The number of Internet of Things sensors will grow from 14.8B in 2015 to 50B by
2020. “Connections Counter: The Internet of Everything in Motion,”The Network,
July 29, 2013, http://newsroom.cisco.com/feature-
content?ype=webcontent&articleId=1208342
There will be 200B Internet-connected things in 2030.“A Guide to the Internet of
Things”, Intel Corp., accessed September 3, 2015,
http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/ internet-of-things/infographics/guide-to-
iot.html
Image, speech, and voice recognition are advancing quickly and may
soon surpass human abilities.John Markoff,“Researchers Announce
Advance in Image-
Recognition Software,”The New York Times, November 17,2014,
http://www.nytimes. com/2014/11/18/science/researchers-announce-
breakthrough-in-content-recognition- software.html?_r=1
“The Revolutionary Technique That Quietly Changed Machine Vision Forever,”
MIT Technology Review, September 9, 2014,
http://www.technologyreview.com/ view/530561/the-revolutionary-
technique-that-quietly-changed-machine-vision- forever/
Robert McMillan,“Speech Recognition Gets Conversational”,WallStreet Journal –
Digits, May 28, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/05/28/speech-
recognition-gets- conversational/
Tactile technology is improving rapidly due to research and development in
robot- assisted medicine. Charm Labs – Collaborative Haptics and Robotics in
Medicine, List of 2015 Publications,http://charm.stanford.edu/Main/Publications
The nascent virtual reality market will frow to US$30B in the next five years,
while augmented reality will be a US$120B business by 2020. Eric
Johnson,“Digi-Capital: Augmented RealityLike HoloLens to OutpaceVirtual
RealityLike Oculus,”Re/code,April 6, 2015, http://recode.net/2015/04/06/digi-
capital-augmented-reality-like-hololens-to- outpace-virtual-reality-like-oculus/
Issue 07:Cybersecurity:Protecting a Hackable World
The following sources were cited in SAP Digital Futures Issue 07 Cybersecurity:
Protecting a Hackable World1999:“Whitehat” hackers predict the dangers of
ubiquitous networking.
Craig Timber,“Net of Insecurity: A Disaster Foretold – And Ignored,”The
Washington Post,June 22,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2015/06/22/net-of- insecurity-part-
3/
2012: New Internet Protocol allows 78 octillion Internet addresses—1 trillion for
every grain of sand on earth. Kai Ryssdal,“We Have Some Catching Up to
Do on Cyber- Security,”Marketplace, February 20, 2015,
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/tech/ big-book/we-have-some-catching-do-
cyber-security
January 2014: Security pros uncover a spambot network of more than 100,000
smart devices, including a refrigerator. Michelle Starr,“Fridge Caught Sending
Spam Emails in Botnet Attack,” C|NET, July 19, 2014,
http://www.cnet.com/news/fridge-caught-sending- spam-emails-in-botnet-attack/
July 2015: Hackers prove they can remotely highjack a car. Andy
Greenberg,“Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—with Me in
It,”Wired,July 21, 2015, http://www. wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-
jeep-highway/
September 2015: Researchers find potential vulnerabilities in 68,000 medical
devices. “Medical Devices Vulnerable to Hackers,” BBC News, September 29,
2015, http://www. bbc.com/news/technology-34390165
Issue 08:Virtual RealityGets Real
TVweather reports adopted the firstapplication of AR on TV in 1975.The term‘virtual
reality’ was first coined in 1989. Kiran Voleti,“50 Facts and Figures of Augmented
Reality,”Real@ Real, October 24, 2014, http://www.real@real.com/50-facts-figures-
augmented-reality
The human eye only registers one ten-trillionth of the electromagnetic
spectrum. David Eagleman,“Can we create new senses for
humans?”TED2015, filmed March
2015,
https://www.ted.com/talks/david_eagleman_can_we_create_new_senses_for_
humans?language=en
Oculus Rift raised $2.5 million on Kickstarter in August 2012. Facebook bought
the company for $2 billion18 months later. Peter Diamandis,“From $2M to $2B in
18 Months: What Entrepreneurs Can Learn From Oculus VR,” Huffington Post,
April 14, 2014, http:// www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-diamandis/from-2m-to-2b-in-
18-month_b_5147883. html
Overall, AR/VR revenues are predicted to reach $150 billion by 2020. Tim Merel,
“Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020,”
TechCrunch,April 6, 2015, http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-
virtual- reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/#.yyyyffi:R0vA
By 2020,103 million automobiles could contain AR technology.“Augmented
Reality: Envision a More Intelligent World,”Semico Research & Consulting,
October 2012, http:// www.semico.com/sites/default/files/TOC_MP105-12.pdf
Issue 09: DigitalMedicine:Healing Better
Healthcare invests more in treatment than prevention; approximately 86 percent
of U.S. health care spending is for chronic conditions. Chronic Diseases: The
Leading Causes of Death and Disability in the United States, Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, http://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/overview/
Remote patient monitoring for conditions like heart disease, asthma, and
diabetes could save more than $200 billion.“The Digital Revolution Comes to
US Healthcare,“ Goldman Sachs Global Investment, 2015,
http://www.wageningenur.nl/upload_mm/0/ f/3/8fe8684c-2a84-4965-9dce-
550584aae48c_Internet%20of%20Things%205%20
-%20Digital%20Revolution%20Comes%20to%20US%20Healtcare.pdf
Telehealth options (estimated to be a $25 billion market in 2015) for routine and
psychological care could save $100 billion. “eVisits:The 21st Century
Housecall,“ WSJ. com, March 6, 2014,
http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2014/03/06/evisits-the-21st-century- house-call/
The global medical technology market is estimated to reach $513.5 billion by
2020, from
$363.8 billion in 2013.“Deloitte 2015 Global life sciences outlook,” 2015,
https://www2. deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Life-
Sciences-Health-Care/gx- lshc-2015-life-sciences-report.pdf
In 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first 3D printed
drug. “First 3D-printed drug approved by FDA,“ CNN.com, August 4, 2015,
http://money.cnn. com/2015/08/04/technology/fda-3d-printed-drug-epilepsy/
Issue 10:The Internet?You’reSwimming InIt
The cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and
dropping. 1trillionsensors could be connected to the Internet by 2022, and 45
trillion in 20 years. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal
Impact, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_
Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
Dr. Janusz Bryzsek,“Trillion Sensors Movement in Support of Abundance and
Internet of Everything”, SensorsCon 2014, Santa Clara, CA, March 6, 2014
https://cseweb.ucsd.edu/ classes/sp14/cse291-
b/notes/Janusz_Bryzek_SensorsCon2014.pdf
Appliances and home automation will account for more than half of household
Internet traffic by 2024.“Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal
Impact”, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/
WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
The first “smart city” with Internet-connected, automated roads, services, and
utilities will emerge by 2026. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and
Societal Impact, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/
WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
Fabrics that can charge electronics — or incorporate them — already exist.
Blaine Friedlander,“Nanotech transforms cotton fibers into modern marvel,”
Cornell Chronicle, July 7,2015, http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/07/nanotech-
transforms-cotton- fibers-modern-marvel
Over 8 billion ambient intelligence smartphone apps will be downloaded in 2020.
“Location-based Ambient Intelligence Is the Next Big Leap in Consumer
Applications,“ ABI Research, March 4, 2015, https://www.abiresearch.com/analyst-
insider/archive/111/

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