The document discusses the historical trends of the U.S. federal deficit and debt from 1969 to projections for 2048. It highlights various debt curves indicating the percentage of publicly-held debt and net interest as a percentage of GDP over the years. The narrative culminates in warnings about an impending severe debt situation termed 'the debt curve from hell.'

1. The Debt Curve From Hell is Upon Us
The Federal Deficit & Debt: FY1969 to FY2048
By James Carter
Deputy Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury
2002-06

2. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY1974
1969
1974
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP
Based on historical budget data and the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term budget outlook (issued June 2018).

3. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY1980
1969
1974
1980
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

4. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY1985
1969
1974
1980
1985
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

5. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY1991
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

6. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY1994
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

7. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2000
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

8. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2004
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

9. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2008
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

10. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2009
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

11. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2010
1969
1974
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

12. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2016
1969
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

13. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2019
1969
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010 2016
2019
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

14. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2030
1969
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010 2016
2019
2030
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

15. The Debt Curve: FY1969 to FY2040
1969
1980
1985
1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010 2016
2019
2030
2040
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP

16. The Debt Curve from Hell is Upon Us!
1969
1980
1985 1991
1994
2000
2004
2008
2009 2010 2016
2019
2030
2040
2048
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
NetInterestasa%ofGDP
Publicly-Held Debt as a % of GDP