This is a quick presentation on GDP for Canada. The presentation will look at both GDP by Industry and GDP by Expenditure.

1. September 2016 - Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) – Canada
By:
Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: November 30, 2016

2. Agenda
• Summary
• Foreign Aid / Economy
• GDP by Industry Segment
• Graduates and Job Market

3. Summary – September 2016 – GDP – Canada
• Canadian real GDP rose at a 3.5% annual rate in Q3, basically on consensus and a nice rebound from the
wildfire-induced 1.3% drop in Q2 (revised slightly stronger from the initial reading of -1.6%; Q1 was also
revised up by 2 ticks to +2.7%). The comeback was led by an 8.9% snapback in exports (largely reflecting a
return to normal oil production levels, and not a burst in other sales), with some notable support from capex,
inventories and consumer spending. The latter rose at a 2.6% annual rate, the best quarter in a year.
Notably, we continue to wait for serious signs of the much-vaunted federal stimulus package, as government
consumption fell at a 1.2% a.r. and public investment was only moderate at +2.6%. Housing also dragged on
growth, dropping at a meaty 5.5% clip. One real ray of sunshine was the fact that business spending on M&E
and structures rose 3.5%, its first gain in two years. Source – BMO
• When it comes to economies, what goes down usually comes back up, and Canada is no exception. The
resumption of activity following the May wildfires in Alberta delivered the fastest pace of economic growth
since the end of 2014. Canada has regained back the ground lost in the second quarter, and then some.
Beneath the surface however, lies an economy that continues to struggle to find new sources of growth. The
bulk of the gain both in the quarterly and monthly figures can be attributed to one-offs. Absent the post-
wildfire resumption of energy production, the quarter would have likely been much weaker. Indeed, business
investment, which had been expected to 'bottom out', instead continued its decline, which would have been
worse absent a one-off module delivery for the Hebron offshore project. Indeed, the 0.3% monthly number
notwithstanding, momentum heading into the end of the year appears soft as GDP excluding energy gained
just 0.1% in September. Only a marginal improvement in the rate of growth is expected in 2017. Source – TD
Economics

4. Foreign Aid / Canada / GDP
• The Government has already made several decisions resulting in more than
$5 billion on a cash basis being invested in activities that will allow Canada to
make a real and valuable contribution to a more peaceful and prosperous
world, including:
• $2.65 billion by 2020 on a cash basis, to address climate change in developing countries;
• More than $1.6 billion over three years, starting in 2016–17, towards security,
stabilization, humanitarian and development assistance for Iraq, Syria, Jordan and
Lebanon;
• $678 million over six years, starting in 2015–16, to respond to the Syrian refugee crisis
and aid in the resettlement of 25,000 Syrian refugees; and
• $100 million in 2015–16 to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, to help
support critical relief activities in the region.
• Source - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/brett-tarver-/foreign-aid-
spending_b_12961312.html or http://www.budget.gc.ca/2016/docs/plan/ch6-
en.html
Comments:
• Many refugees have been
forced on to welfare roles
and food banks
• This impacts
provincial and
municipal budgets
• Lower spending on
other programs like
infrastructure
• Foreign Aid
• Does not help the
domestic economy
• Foreign Aid is important to
countries
• There are issues with
delivering of Foreign
Aid

5. GDP by Industry Segment
Source – Stats Canada Source – BMO

6. GDP / Expenditure
Facts:
• Infrastructure spending has not flow to projects across Canada
• Consumer spending continues to grow but will face pressures due to carbon taxation (Ontario and Alberta)
• Business Investment seen a spike due to oil equipment purchase. Business are to hesitant to invest due both slow
growth globally as well as government policies (Hydro Rates and Red Tape)