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The American Election 2012




                Arthur Hall
        Nümbrecht 6th November 2012
                                      1
Let me tell you a little story…

           On inauguration day in January 2009
                  Barack Hussein Obama
the 47 year-old son of a white Kansan and a black Kenyan
 a highly talented man but of limited political experience
                        from Illinois
      became the 44th President of the United States
 then President Obama and his wife and children slept at
       the 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue White House
                   it was a white house
                    built by black men
              slaves of West African heritage
                                                             2
Let me tell you another little story

• Also in         2009: A Burning Question

• Did Mitt Romney pay any taxes in 2009?
• Romney's refusal to release tax returns prior
  to 2010 has both parties thinking he has
  something to hide. One theory is that he
  didn't pay a penny in taxes in 2009
• Best Opinion: Businessweek, Bloomberg View,
  Washington Post
                                               3
Mitt Romney at a fund raising dinner…
• Q&A behind closed doors at the $50,000-per-plate
  fundraiser in Boca Raton on May 17 2012
• On the 47 percent of Americans he regards as
  moochers:
• "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for
  the president no matter what. All right, there are 47
  percent who are with him, who are dependent upon
  government, who believe that they are victims, who
  believe that government has a responsibility to care for
  them, who believe that they are entitled to health care,
  to food, to housing, to you name it."

                                                         4
Mitt Romney on the Palestinians…

On the "almost unthinkable" prospects
for Mideast peace:
"And I look at the Palestinians not
wanting to see peace anyway, for
political purposes, committed to the
destruction and elimination of Israel, and
these thorny issues, and I say there's just
no way."
                                              5
Overall Election
                       Spending 2012
          OBAMA TEAM                       ROMNEY TEAM
          $924,798,889                     $974,905,862

  University of                       Goldman
1
                  $1,079,526                       $994,139
  California                          Sachs
  Microsoft                           Bank of
2
                  $761,343                         $921,839
  Corp                                America
3
  Google Inc      $737,055            Morgan
  US                                               $827,255
4
                  $614,665            Stanley
  Government                          JPMorgan
  Harvard                                          $792,147
5
                  $602,992            Chase & Co
  University
                                      Credit Suisse
                                                    $618,941
                                      Group



                                                               6
Mitt Romney as successful businessman
    • Mitt Romney is basing his presidential campaign
      largely on his success as a businessperson building
      Bain Capital into a leading private equity company

    • While it is questionable how much success in
      business prepares a person for success in the
      White House (Herbert Hoover was the last
      president with notable success as a
      businessperson)

    • It is important to understand that Mr. Romney is
      not a successful business person in the same way
      as other people who have built successful
      companies
                                                            7
How Romney made his money
• Private equity companies like Bain Capital are not primarily about
  producing wealth

• They profit largely by siphoning off wealth created elsewhere in
  the economy. There are many different ways in which this
  diversion of wealth is accomplished. The simplest and most
  common trick is gaming the tax code.

• It is absolutely standard practice for private equity companies to
  immediately load up the companies they acquire with debt.

• This has two benefits for the PE company. First, it allows them to
  get most of their money back right away. They end up with a
  heavily leveraged company, where the PE company is still in
  control, but has little of its own money at risk.                 8
How Obama made his money
• In his 2004 financial statements, Barack Obama indicated that
  he had three sources of income. One was an $80,287 salary
  from the Illinois Senate, where he was a state senator

• The other was a $32,144 salary from the University of Chicago
  Law School, where Obama taught as a lecturer while he was in
  the statehouse

• The third was Michelle's salary from the University of Chicago
  Hospitals, where she was an administrator

• Later, he made a fortune from the two books he wrote about
  his life and he invested it wisely
                                                               9
Candidate‘s Personal Wealth
The Obamas                     Mitt Romney
• Barack and Michelle          • Mitt Romney, estimated at
  Obama have assets worth        over $200m
  up between $2.6m and         • Refused to publish tax
  $8.3m, according to            returns for 2009
  financial disclosure forms
  for 2011 made public by
  the White House
• Obama's assets show he is
  far from being an average
  American

                                                         10
Economy
            Obama                              Romney
                                  • Plan centres on tax cuts
• Signed the stimulus, a $768bn   • Repeal of Obama's 2010
  package of tax cuts and           healthcare reform law
  investment in education,        • Repeal of 2010 Wall Street and
  infrastructure, energy            banking regulations, and in
  research, health, and other       general the reduction of other
                                    regulations he says stifle
  programmes
                                    economic growth
• Backed a bailout of the US      • Opposed the auto industry
  auto industry                     bailout
• Signed trade agreements with    • Proposes to reduce federal
  Colombia, Panama and South        spending significantly but gives
  Korea                             few details about which
                                    programmes he would cut
                                                                       11
Healthcare
        Obama                                    Romney
• Vast 2010 healthcare reform       • Would seek repeal of Mr Obama's
  law aims for universal health       health law, though it is modelled
  insurance coverage by               on a law he signed in
  requiring individuals who are       Massachusetts
  not otherwise covered to          • Would return most health policy
  purchase insurance                  to the states
• Restricted insurers' ability to   • Would limit doctor malpractice
                                      lawsuits
  deny coverage based on pre-
  existing ailments                 • Would encourage individuals
                                      without insurance to buy it on the
• The law offers states grants to     private market, including by
  increase enrolment of poor          purchasing it in other states with
  people in the Medicaid public       lighter coverage requirements
  insurance programme                 and lower costs


                                                                      12
Taxes
        Obama                                Romney
• Has cut effective taxes for   • Would make permanent all Bush-
                                  era tax cuts
  most Americans                • Further cut individual income tax
• Would repeal Bush-era tax       rates
                                • Eliminate taxes on investment
  cuts for households making      income
  more than $250,000 a year     • repeal the estate tax, and reduce
                                  the corporate income tax rate
• proposes the "Buffet rule"    • According to the non-partisan Tax
  named for billionaire           Policy Center, taxpayers at high
  Warren Buffet, which would      income levels would see the
                                  greatest benefit. Would make up
  increase the effective tax      the revenue by closing unnamed
  rate paid by millionaires       tax loopholes

                                                                 13
Iran
             Obama                                Romney
• Says he is determined to prevent    • Says it is unacceptable for Iran
  Iran from developing a nuclear        to possess a nuclear weapon
  weapon
• Opposes a near-term military        • Says military action "remains
  strike by US or Israel on Iran's      on the table" and analysts say
  nuclear facilities                    he presents a clearer military
• emphasises need for a diplomatic      threat to Iran
  solution but warns "that window
  is closing" and has said "all       • Would send Navy ships to
  options are at the table“             patrol the Mediterranean and
• signed new sanctions against          Persian Gulf; calls for more
  Iran's central bank, oil revenues     sanctions; would publicly back
  and financial system                  Iranian opposition groups

                                                                       14
National security and war
        Obama                                Romney
• Has killed much of al-         • Would spend heavily on
  Qaeda's leadership,              military hardware and
  including Osama Bin Laden        invest in missile defence
• Pulled US troops out of Iraq   • Add an estimated $100bn to
• Agreed to a $487m                the Pentagon's budget
  reduction in defence           • Reduce the civilian defence
  spending over 10 years with      bureaucracy
  congressional Republicans



                                                            15
Afghanistan
              Obama                       Romney
• Initially increased the      • Has said his "goal" would be
  number of troops in            "a successful transition to
  Afghanistan; has begun a       Afghan security forces by
  draw-down of US troops         the end of 2014"
  with the combat mission to   • But pledges to review
  end by 2014                    withdrawal plans and base
                                 them "on conditions on the
                                 ground as assessed by our
                                 military commanders"


                                                            16
Illegal Immigration
            Obama                 Romney
• Used executive power to         • Criticises Mr Obama's
  grant legal status to certain     "stopgap" measure on
  young illegal immigrants          young illegal immigrants but
• Bypassing Republicans in          does not say whether he
  Congress                          would overturn it
• Has dramatically increased      • Says the US should
  deportations of illegal           encourage migrants to "self-
  immigrants                        deport" by making life hard
                                    for them


                                                              17
Abortion
           Obama                           Romney

                              • Says "My presidency will be a pro-
• Supports abortion rights      life presidency”
• Appointed two Supreme       • He supported abortion rights
  Court justices who appear     when he was running for
  to favour abortion rights     governor Massachusetts in 2002
                              • Supports overturning the Roe v.
                                Wade Supreme Court ruling
                                legalising abortion and allowing
                                states to decide whether abortion
                                should be legal
                              • Would strip federal funding from
                                Planned Parenthood women's
                                health clinics
                                                                18
Energy
            Obama                  Romney
• Supports investment in clean     • Would ease regulations
  energy such as wind turbines       preventing coal-burning power
  and advanced car batteries         plants, oil exploration and
• Tightened car fuel efficiency      nuclear power plant
  and emissions standards            construction
• Blocked development of the       • Would encourage drilling for
  Keystone oil pipeline to move      oil in the Atlantic and Pacific
  oil sands crude from Canada to     outer continental shelves
  the Gulf of Mexico               • Proposes to ease regulations
• Says the US had not had          • Pledges to build the Keystone
  sufficient time to judge its       pipeline
  environmental impact

                                                                  19
Key States to watch
           with Electoral College votes

•   Colorado        •    9
•   Florida         •   29
•   Iowa            •    6
•   New Hampshire   •    4


•   Ohio            •   18
                    In recent elections, the Buckeye State has proved itself to be
                    a remarkably good predictor of the election winner. Since
                    1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only
                    once – opting for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960

•   Virginia        •   13
•   Wisconsin       •   10


                                                                                20
And then came the results …


Presidential 270 to win

303 Obama           206 Romney

Obama               60,447,060 votes    (50.4%)
Romney              57,644,747 votes    (48.1%)

Senate (upper)      54 Democrats (up 1)
                    45 Republicans (down 2)

House (lower)       195 Democrats (up 2)
                    234 Republicans (down 8)


                                                  21
More information

  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/
 2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

• Obama Website:        • Romney Website:
• www.barackobama.com   • www.mittromney.com




                                          22

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The american election 2012 arthur

  • 1. The American Election 2012 Arthur Hall Nümbrecht 6th November 2012 1
  • 2. Let me tell you a little story… On inauguration day in January 2009 Barack Hussein Obama the 47 year-old son of a white Kansan and a black Kenyan a highly talented man but of limited political experience from Illinois became the 44th President of the United States then President Obama and his wife and children slept at the 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue White House it was a white house built by black men slaves of West African heritage 2
  • 3. Let me tell you another little story • Also in 2009: A Burning Question • Did Mitt Romney pay any taxes in 2009? • Romney's refusal to release tax returns prior to 2010 has both parties thinking he has something to hide. One theory is that he didn't pay a penny in taxes in 2009 • Best Opinion: Businessweek, Bloomberg View, Washington Post 3
  • 4. Mitt Romney at a fund raising dinner… • Q&A behind closed doors at the $50,000-per-plate fundraiser in Boca Raton on May 17 2012 • On the 47 percent of Americans he regards as moochers: • "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it." 4
  • 5. Mitt Romney on the Palestinians… On the "almost unthinkable" prospects for Mideast peace: "And I look at the Palestinians not wanting to see peace anyway, for political purposes, committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel, and these thorny issues, and I say there's just no way." 5
  • 6. Overall Election Spending 2012 OBAMA TEAM ROMNEY TEAM $924,798,889 $974,905,862 University of Goldman 1 $1,079,526 $994,139 California Sachs Microsoft Bank of 2 $761,343 $921,839 Corp America 3 Google Inc $737,055 Morgan US $827,255 4 $614,665 Stanley Government JPMorgan Harvard $792,147 5 $602,992 Chase & Co University Credit Suisse $618,941 Group 6
  • 7. Mitt Romney as successful businessman • Mitt Romney is basing his presidential campaign largely on his success as a businessperson building Bain Capital into a leading private equity company • While it is questionable how much success in business prepares a person for success in the White House (Herbert Hoover was the last president with notable success as a businessperson) • It is important to understand that Mr. Romney is not a successful business person in the same way as other people who have built successful companies 7
  • 8. How Romney made his money • Private equity companies like Bain Capital are not primarily about producing wealth • They profit largely by siphoning off wealth created elsewhere in the economy. There are many different ways in which this diversion of wealth is accomplished. The simplest and most common trick is gaming the tax code. • It is absolutely standard practice for private equity companies to immediately load up the companies they acquire with debt. • This has two benefits for the PE company. First, it allows them to get most of their money back right away. They end up with a heavily leveraged company, where the PE company is still in control, but has little of its own money at risk. 8
  • 9. How Obama made his money • In his 2004 financial statements, Barack Obama indicated that he had three sources of income. One was an $80,287 salary from the Illinois Senate, where he was a state senator • The other was a $32,144 salary from the University of Chicago Law School, where Obama taught as a lecturer while he was in the statehouse • The third was Michelle's salary from the University of Chicago Hospitals, where she was an administrator • Later, he made a fortune from the two books he wrote about his life and he invested it wisely 9
  • 10. Candidate‘s Personal Wealth The Obamas Mitt Romney • Barack and Michelle • Mitt Romney, estimated at Obama have assets worth over $200m up between $2.6m and • Refused to publish tax $8.3m, according to returns for 2009 financial disclosure forms for 2011 made public by the White House • Obama's assets show he is far from being an average American 10
  • 11. Economy Obama Romney • Plan centres on tax cuts • Signed the stimulus, a $768bn • Repeal of Obama's 2010 package of tax cuts and healthcare reform law investment in education, • Repeal of 2010 Wall Street and infrastructure, energy banking regulations, and in research, health, and other general the reduction of other regulations he says stifle programmes economic growth • Backed a bailout of the US • Opposed the auto industry auto industry bailout • Signed trade agreements with • Proposes to reduce federal Colombia, Panama and South spending significantly but gives Korea few details about which programmes he would cut 11
  • 12. Healthcare Obama Romney • Vast 2010 healthcare reform • Would seek repeal of Mr Obama's law aims for universal health health law, though it is modelled insurance coverage by on a law he signed in requiring individuals who are Massachusetts not otherwise covered to • Would return most health policy purchase insurance to the states • Restricted insurers' ability to • Would limit doctor malpractice lawsuits deny coverage based on pre- existing ailments • Would encourage individuals without insurance to buy it on the • The law offers states grants to private market, including by increase enrolment of poor purchasing it in other states with people in the Medicaid public lighter coverage requirements insurance programme and lower costs 12
  • 13. Taxes Obama Romney • Has cut effective taxes for • Would make permanent all Bush- era tax cuts most Americans • Further cut individual income tax • Would repeal Bush-era tax rates • Eliminate taxes on investment cuts for households making income more than $250,000 a year • repeal the estate tax, and reduce the corporate income tax rate • proposes the "Buffet rule" • According to the non-partisan Tax named for billionaire Policy Center, taxpayers at high Warren Buffet, which would income levels would see the greatest benefit. Would make up increase the effective tax the revenue by closing unnamed rate paid by millionaires tax loopholes 13
  • 14. Iran Obama Romney • Says he is determined to prevent • Says it is unacceptable for Iran Iran from developing a nuclear to possess a nuclear weapon weapon • Opposes a near-term military • Says military action "remains strike by US or Israel on Iran's on the table" and analysts say nuclear facilities he presents a clearer military • emphasises need for a diplomatic threat to Iran solution but warns "that window is closing" and has said "all • Would send Navy ships to options are at the table“ patrol the Mediterranean and • signed new sanctions against Persian Gulf; calls for more Iran's central bank, oil revenues sanctions; would publicly back and financial system Iranian opposition groups 14
  • 15. National security and war Obama Romney • Has killed much of al- • Would spend heavily on Qaeda's leadership, military hardware and including Osama Bin Laden invest in missile defence • Pulled US troops out of Iraq • Add an estimated $100bn to • Agreed to a $487m the Pentagon's budget reduction in defence • Reduce the civilian defence spending over 10 years with bureaucracy congressional Republicans 15
  • 16. Afghanistan Obama Romney • Initially increased the • Has said his "goal" would be number of troops in "a successful transition to Afghanistan; has begun a Afghan security forces by draw-down of US troops the end of 2014" with the combat mission to • But pledges to review end by 2014 withdrawal plans and base them "on conditions on the ground as assessed by our military commanders" 16
  • 17. Illegal Immigration Obama Romney • Used executive power to • Criticises Mr Obama's grant legal status to certain "stopgap" measure on young illegal immigrants young illegal immigrants but • Bypassing Republicans in does not say whether he Congress would overturn it • Has dramatically increased • Says the US should deportations of illegal encourage migrants to "self- immigrants deport" by making life hard for them 17
  • 18. Abortion Obama Romney • Says "My presidency will be a pro- • Supports abortion rights life presidency” • Appointed two Supreme • He supported abortion rights Court justices who appear when he was running for to favour abortion rights governor Massachusetts in 2002 • Supports overturning the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court ruling legalising abortion and allowing states to decide whether abortion should be legal • Would strip federal funding from Planned Parenthood women's health clinics 18
  • 19. Energy Obama Romney • Supports investment in clean • Would ease regulations energy such as wind turbines preventing coal-burning power and advanced car batteries plants, oil exploration and • Tightened car fuel efficiency nuclear power plant and emissions standards construction • Blocked development of the • Would encourage drilling for Keystone oil pipeline to move oil in the Atlantic and Pacific oil sands crude from Canada to outer continental shelves the Gulf of Mexico • Proposes to ease regulations • Says the US had not had • Pledges to build the Keystone sufficient time to judge its pipeline environmental impact 19
  • 20. Key States to watch with Electoral College votes • Colorado • 9 • Florida • 29 • Iowa • 6 • New Hampshire • 4 • Ohio • 18 In recent elections, the Buckeye State has proved itself to be a remarkably good predictor of the election winner. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once – opting for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960 • Virginia • 13 • Wisconsin • 10 20
  • 21. And then came the results … Presidential 270 to win 303 Obama 206 Romney Obama 60,447,060 votes (50.4%) Romney 57,644,747 votes (48.1%) Senate (upper) 54 Democrats (up 1) 45 Republicans (down 2) House (lower) 195 Democrats (up 2) 234 Republicans (down 8) 21
  • 22. More information http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/ 2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map • Obama Website: • Romney Website: • www.barackobama.com • www.mittromney.com 22