THE AFRICA 4G SPECTRUM VALUE REPORT

THE AFRICA 4G
SPECTRUM VALUE
REPORT
4G VALUATION, OUTLOOK,
AND BUSINESS MODELS IN
AFRICAN MARKETS
A XALAM ANALYTICS
REPORT - SAMPLE PAGES
JUNE 2017
Full Report First Published May 2016

2
Africa Spectrum Licensing: $16bn in Proceeds So Far, and More Is Coming
Since 1998, African countries have sold around $16bn worth
of licences – 4G spectrum licensing has the potential of
taking these total proceeds to around $20bn.
The first wave of licensing, consisting primarily of 900MHz
and 1800MHz spectrum, brought in about $10bn, including
renewals
The 2G phase was one of the most prolific phase has
operating concession awards the continent has ever seen –
across industries.
Operators were not as profligate in the second phase; fewer
3G licences were sold, and 3G spectrum was generally valued
lower than 2G spectrum.
2G Spectrum
Licensing Phase
~$10bn in
Proceeds*
3G Spectrum
Licensing Phase
~$4bn in Proceeds
4G Spectrum Phase
?
1998-2010 2006 - 2015 2012 - 2020
Main Phases of African Spectrum Licensing
*including renewals
Source: Xalam Analytics estimates
© Xalam Analytics LLC - 2016

3
The African Operator Predicament
I’m still trying to make money out of 3G. Now
they say I must invest in 4G.
Anonymous operator, 2014

4
 The 2600 MHz band is still more predominant globally than it is in African markets
 The weight of TDD bands is more important in Africa – proportions are 2x higher than at
global level. This has potential some short term consequences for device ecosystem, service
pricing.
 There is no use of the 700 MHz band to speak of.
Africa 4G vs. the World: Not Quite Dovetailing Global Trends (Yet)
 The nature of 4G licensing in Africa is directly impacting how well the continent matches
up to global trends, in terms of availability of different bands.
 Rather than waiting for uncertain regulatory licensing schedules, operators are deploying
what they legally can.
 The band contribution patterns in African LTE networks largely dovetail global trends –
for 1800 MHz and 800 MHz. Outside of those two bands, however, the Africa spectrum
band distribution bifurcates from international patterns.
*Estimates as of Year end 2015; Global numbers from GSA.
. Sources: GSA, Xalam Analytics Estimates
Distribution of Prime 4G LTE Bands – Africa vs. Global* Africa 4G Networks - TDD vs. FDD*
44%
21%
6%
23%
3%
12%
48%
16%
14%
9%
7%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1800 MHz - Band
3
800 MHz - Band
20
2300 MHz - Band
40
2600 MHz - Band
7
2500 MHz - Band
41
700 MHz - Band
12-13-14-17
Global Africa
FDD
77%
TDD
23%
FDD TDD
Outside of the 1800 MHz and 800
MHz bands, Africa does not (yet)
match up with global trends
The global
estimate is ~10%

5
Analysis of African 4G Spectrum Proceeds by Band
Distribution of Africa 4G Transaction Proceeds by Spectrum
Band – 2010-2016
“Other” refers primarily to 1800MHz, and in some cases, upper 2GHz bands; Data as of March 2016; based on licence proceeds over 1998-2016 period; including one-off entry fees only; excluding FWA spectrum sales.
Source: Xalam Analytics Estimates based on regulator, operator data
African regulators have generated
~$1.5bn in 4G spectrum sales as of
March 2016
700MHz
25%
800MHz
42%
2.6GHz
18%
Other
15%
700MHz
6%
800MHz
33%
2.6GHz
51%
Other
10%
$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00
2.6GHz
4G Average
800MHz
Other
700MHz
US$ million
Distribution of Africa 4G Bandwidth Sold by Spectrum Band –
2010-2016
Average Revenue per MHz Generated in African 4G
Transactions – by Spectrum Band
African regulators have sold an
estimated 650 MHz of 4G spectrum* as
of March 2016
*Including some 1800MHz bundled into 4G Blocks.
The 700MHz/800MHz bands are the most
sought after – only 40% of the spectrum
capacity sold, but nearly 70% of all proceeds
The 2.6GHz band carries the lowest value
of all 4G bands in the African context
Total:
~$1.5bn (as
of March
2016)
Total: ~650MHz
(as of March
2016)

6
 Spectrum blocks matter – sales of stand-alone 3G and 4G spectrum attract the lowest
average valuations in our sample
 The above chart confirms a trending that sees 4G more valuable than 3G was in African
markets – possible leapfrog effect
Blocks of Spectrum Matter to Value – And 4G will be Pricier than 3G Was
 The 800 MHz Band is now arguably the most valuable of non-900 MHz bands; it is now
valued nearly as high as (historical) 2G spectrum value.
 For 3G spectrum, the higher values generated in Egypt and the larger quantity of single-band
transactions are driving up median value levels.
 As operators plot their migration to 4G and seek future-proof spectrum, blocks of
frequencies that include 4G spectrum are the most valuable. The inclusion of 4G spectrum in
2G renewal processes is also driving up the average value of spectrum block sales.
Median Value for Sample Frequency Bands in African Markets* Median Value by Technology Generation and Spectrum Blocks in African Markets
$0.000
$0.001
$0.002
$0.003
$0.004
$0.005
$0.006
$0.007
$0.008
$0.009
900/1800 MHz 800 MHz 2100 MHz 2600 MHz
ValueperMHzperPopperYear
In essence, the 800 MHz is valued
like 2G was at its height – and
both are valued higher than 3G
The 2.6 GHz band has
been heavily
discounted in African
valuations
*Median values for markets in which the frequency is sold by a fixed amount, through auction or bilateral negotiation; amounts typically lower in markets with “first come first served” licensing model,
or where spectrum is awarded based primarily on non-financial criteria. 3G licence median excluding Egypt (too high). **Very small sample size; Data is as of march 2016
Sources: Xalam Analytics Estimates
$0.000
$0.002
$0.004
$0.006
$0.008
$0.010
$0.012
$0.014
2G-3G 2G - Stand-
alone
3G-4G 2G-3G-4G 4G - Stand-
alone
3G - Stand-
alone
ValueperMHzperPopperYear
Stand-alone 3G or 4G
spectrum attracts the lowest
valuations

7
The 2.6 GHz Band – Should it be Valued as 4G, or as FWA/WiMAX Spectrum?
Valuation of 2.6GHz, 2.3 GHz in Sample African Markets - Value per PoP per MHz per Year
 The 2.6 GHz band is generally valued as a complementary band – it is priced lower than the main sub-1GHz and the 2100 GHz, but higher than the TDD bands. In African markets, it sells at
a 6x-8x discount to other 4G bands (800 MHz and 1800 MHz).
 The band is increasingly licensed in block sales combining multiple frequencies, and indeed, its value appears maximized under that type of setup. When sold individually, the bandwidth
does not get the “value-pull” benefit from being combined with lower-frequency bands. All the 2.6GHz licenses awarded to mobile operators for 4G purposes in 2015 were awarded as
part of a block sale.
 There was one instance of a single-band sale for this band (Ghana), which attracted limited proceeds, partly because mobile operators were excluded from the process. Nigeria will similarly
auction 2.6GHz spectrum in 2016, with a reserve price point in line with those generated in Ghana.
$0.0000
$0.0005
$0.0010
$0.0015
$0.0020
$0.0025
$0.0030
$0.0035
$0.0040
$0.0045
$0.0050
Tunisia 4G Cote-d'Ivoire 4G Morocco 4G - Leader African 2.6GHz Median Morocco 4G -
Challenger
Nigeria 2.6 GHz -
Reserve Price
Ghana 2.6GHz Auction Nigeria - 2.3 GHz -
Wholesale
Nigeria 2.3 GHz
Price/MHz/Pop/Year
Block sales attracts
the highest value When sold on a
stand-alone basis,
the 2.6GHz band is
valued closer to
FWA levels
Cote-d’Ivoire, Tunisia, Morocco were block spectrum transactions; value is Xalam Analytics estimate; Nigeria is reserve price. Data is as of march 2016

8
Breaking Down 3G Spectrum Value: The 2100 MHz Band
Niger, Guinea Bissau were block spectrum transactions; 3G estimated based on historical 2G value. The chart excludes Egypt 3G licensing, which is off-scale. Data is as of march 2016
Africa 3G: Transaction Values vs. GDP per Capita @ PPP
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000
GDP per Capita @ PPP
$0.000
$0.005
$0.010
$0.015
$0.020
$0.025
$0.030
Pric
Algeria
Chad
DRC
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea Bissau
Morocco
Niger
Nigeria
Nigeria
Tunisia
Tunisia
Economic value
range for the 2100
MHz Band
More transactions
slightly above value
than below

9
Mapping Out Africa’s 800 MHz Band
800MHz Band: Transaction Values vs. GDP per Capita @ PPP
*Only including values for markets in which the frequency is sold by a fixed amount, through auction or bilateral negotiation; Kenya is “suggested” price, not actual; Excl. Moz failed auction; Nigeria 700 MHz transaction is contested;
Tunisia, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire are Xalam value estimates based on allocation; Data is as of march 2016 .
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000
GDP per Capita @ PPP
$0.000
$0.002
$0.004
$0.006
$0.008
$0.010
$0.012
$0.014
$0.016
$0.018
$0.020
Pric
Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire
Ghana
Kenya
Morocco
Morocco
Nigeria
Nigeria
Tunisia
Benchmark basis value range
for the 800 MHz Band
Old Nigeria Valuation
New Nigeria Valuation

10
Was 3G Worth the Money? The 4G Timing Problem, and Looking Beyond Economics
 Stating the obvious – High valuations correlate inversely to return potential; an assessment of the highest 3G valuations in African markets show that the large majority (of those we were
able to assess) are NPV-negative. The assessment is even worse for players that are not market leaders, but have paid high valuations.
 The rollouts of 4G networks well into the useful life of 3G is making the latter look even worse; in 60% of the markets we examined, the 3G asset still has around 50% of useful value left
at the time 4G is launched. In 40% of the cases, the 3G licence still has 75% of its useful life remaining. The launch of 4G impairs this value materially.
 On pure economic terms, 3G spectrum investments do not hold up. But in most cases, the investment rationale on African spectrum goes beyond economics. Operators just seek to limit
the damage.
% Remaining Useful Life of the 3G Spectrum Asset at the Time 4G Launched
4G launch in Senegal, Algeria, Egypt is projected.
Number of Years of 3G Service When 4G Launched – Sample Markets
0
2
4 4
5
7
8 8
9 9 9 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Cameroon
Algeria
Tunisia
Côted'Ivoire
Senegal
Ghana
Kenya
France
Egypt
Morocco
Nigeria
UK
Yearsof3GService
3G is essentially leapfrogged
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Nigeria
Egypt
Morocco
Kenya
Ghana
UK
France
Tunisia
Côted'Ivoire
Senegal
Algeria
Cameroon
*Unless the operator can refarm it for 4G purposes; 4G launch in Senegal, Algeria, Egypt is projected.
The value of the 3G spectrum
licence is materially impaired*

11
Is African 4G Spectrum Worth the Money?
 Initial returns on 3G spectrum
acquisition are not good, and may
never be;
 The launch of 4G is eating into the
remaining value of 3G
3G Hasn’t Paid Off The Returns on 4G are
Uncertain
Yet 4G Spectrum is
Valued Higher than 3G
Spectrum
 High spectrum costs and potentially
high rollout costs depending on
spectrum available
 4G facilitates the emergence of OTT
players, which are cannibalizing other
revenue lines
 The proliferation of Wi-Fi is challenging
the 4G prepaid business case
 Median value for 4G spectrum in
Africa has been higher than 3G value
 There is disconnect between
valuation on a benchmark basis vs.
valuation on a business model basis
The African 4G Predicament

12
 A strict application of traditional investment practice suggests that that African 4G spectrum acquisition (and 3G before it), in many cases, is to put it plainly, not worth the money. One
of the key tenets in capital investment is that the investor must forgo the investment if the NPV is negative. And yet, as we have noted, African 4G spectrum is one of those peculiar
investments where the NPV is negative but operators still have to do it.
 The base case for African 4G, in our view, is therefore not primarily an economic one. We see an investment in 4G as more than the potential net present value of cash flows it will likely
generate over the duration of the licence. Investing in 4G spectrum is about staking claim in the opportunity to be foundational participants in the build-up of a country’s digital market. In
a world that will ineluctably become data-centric, network providers without adequate data-centric infrastructure will be marginalized – and top tier providers cannot afford to be. In
effect, the price for 4G spectrum is a price for long term relevance.
The Returns on 4G are
Uncertain
Yet 4G Spectrum is Valued
Higher than 3G Spectrum
The Case for 4G Goes Beyond
NPVs and IRRs
The Case for 4G – More than the Net Present Value of Cash Flows
 It’s about being a key player in a data-centric world
 If you don’t invest in 4G, somebody else will
 It’s the (high) price to pay for long term strategic
relevance
 Using some alternate measures, the prices are actually
not that bad for 4G spectrum, given the fundamental,
strategic nature of the asset (see next page).

Xalam Analytics, LLC
Part of the Light Reading Research
Network
US Office: 1 Mifflin Place, Harvard Sq.
Suite 400
Cambridge, MA 02138
London
info@xalamanalytics.com
THE EXCLUSIVE MONTHLY ANALYSIS FOR AME’S DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE EXECUTIVES
By invitation only
Leveraging research and data analytics for economic
value in AME digital transformation.
XALAM ANALYTICS
@xalamanalytics
www.xalamanalytics.com

THE AFRICA 4G SPECTRUM VALUE REPORT

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