This document summarizes negotiations between the US and the Taliban in the 1990s regarding proposed oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia through Afghanistan. It discusses how the pipelines could benefit both countries economically but were opposed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Al Qaeda. The US offered diplomatic recognition of the Taliban in exchange for allowing pipeline construction, but talks broke down after Al Qaeda's 1998 embassy bombings in Africa. Negotiations continued under President Bush but were ultimately derailed by the 9/11 attacks. The document reveals that Al Qaeda closely monitored the pipeline negotiations and sought to sabotage them to maintain its alliance with the Taliban.
Al-Qaeda was founded by Osama bin Laden in 1988 after fighting with Arab comrades against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Originally, its main goals were to help Pakistanis fight Iran for control of Afghanistan after the Soviets left, and to prevent oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia from reaching India and reducing Arab exports. Over time, Al-Qaeda took on additional goals of fighting Western influence across Africa and Asia to protect the Islamic oil cartel, while also engaging in internal conflicts within that cartel. It has received funding from Saudi donors but cooperation from Iran at times due to their overlapping interests in places like Africa and Central Asia.
Detainee is recommended for continued detention as he poses a high risk. He is a HIG sub-commander with close familial ties to HIG and Taliban leadership. Detainee was directly involved in planning and executing anti-coalition attacks in Afghanistan. He has extensive knowledge of terrorist groups and infiltration routes. Detainee denies his HIG membership despite evidence to the contrary.
Attack on Afghanistan Formalised before 9/11: was Key to Unlock Route to Gas ...Sadanand Patwardhan
International oilcompanies had long been aware that the former USSR states of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistanand, Kazakhstan have huge reserves of oil and naturalgas. The problem forUS, and other Western oil companies, was how to get oil and gas from these huge land-locked reserves to seaports for export. In1995, the Union Oil Company of California (Unocal) gained an agreement with Turkmenistan to lay a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, across Afghanistan,to the Pakistan coast. Unocal also gained a natural gas agreement with Uzbekistan. Pipelines from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could then merge and cross Afghanistan. Unocal then gained a deal with Uzbekistan's northernneighbour, Kazakhstan, and oil and gas pipelines could then run south from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan and link with the trans-Afghanistan pipelines.
During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US established a covert operation in Afghanistan code named `BearTrap'. This anti-Soviet operation established a base in Afghanistan jointly funded by the US and SaudiArabia--and run by the CIA and Pakistan's ISI. The ISI component was headed by Osama bin Laden [Saudi National and heir of powerful Saudi family with close ties to house of Saud]
In August 1996, Unocal led the formation of Central Asia Gas Pipeline Ltd (Centgas). Unocal invited Taliban leaders to Texas to finalise the Centgasproject. The Telegraph reported on December14,1997, ``Oil barons court Taliban in Texas''.
9/11 was blamed on Osama Bin Laden and Taliban without a shred of evidence being offered only to pre-text attack already planned attack on Afghanistan to have a unified single pro-US government there instead of the violently squabbling factions holding different regions, which made Centgas project impossible. On October 7, 2001, US and UK forces commenced their attack on Afghanistan. However, the US planned an invasion of Afghanistan before the events of 9/11. The Guardian reported on September 22, 2001, ``Threat of US strikes passed to Taliban weeks before New York attack''. Time magazine reported on August 12, 2002, ``They had a plan; long before 9/11''.
Pakistan found itself allied with both the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban after the U.S. overthrew the Taliban government in 2001. Pakistan received substantial military aid from the U.S. but also created and supported the Afghan Taliban to fight Pakistan's enemies in Afghanistan. This left Pakistan trying to please both allies through a contradictory policy of supporting the U.S. against al-Qaeda while also maintaining ties to the Taliban and indirectly to al-Qaeda. Pakistan faced pressure from the U.S. to crack down on militants but attacking al-Qaeda or the Taliban threatened relations with Arab allies and Pakistani groups allied with them.
Detainee assessment brief for ISN US9AG-000310DP held at Guantanamo Bay. The detainee is assessed to be an al-Qaeda and Armed Islamic Group fighter from Algeria who traveled extensively through Europe and Canada using false documents. He received militant training in Afghanistan and resided in al-Qaeda guesthouses. He fled Tora Bora with a large group of al-Qaeda fighters led by a senior member. The detainee is assessed to be a high risk and of medium intelligence value based on his militant training and facilitation network connections.
let-the-dragons-fight-the-dragons-a-h-amin-september-2008Agha A
WAR IS NOT ABOUT ETHICS
GOD IS NEITHER WITH US NOR WITH THEM
THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE IN HISTORY
USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ OR ITS CULMINATING POINT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY
USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical
level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both
USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state
with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.
The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.
Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration.
The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians
Detainee is an admitted Taliban recruiter and commander of Military Base 4 in Jalalabad, Afghanistan. He has an extensive operational association with Usama Bin Laden and al-Qaida dating back to 1990. Detainee provided assistance to Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri during their escape from U.S. and Coalition forces in December 2001. He also provided security for al-Qaida personnel in Tora Bora in 1999-2000 and protection to Bin Laden in 1996. Detainee worked closely with al-Qaida and possibly participated in narcotics smuggling. JTF-GTMO assesses the detainee to be a high risk and of high intelligence value.
After the Iranian revolution, the US allied with Saudi Arabia for oil and Turkey as a counter to Russia. When Saudi Arabia and Turkey started looking elsewhere, the US turned to Iraq to liberate the Shiite and Kurdish populations oppressed by Saddam Hussein's Sunni minority. However, neighboring Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey did not want an independent Kurdistan and opposed US involvement for fear it could empower their own Kurdish populations. The Iraq war thus sparked opposition from countries in the region.
Al-Qaeda was founded by Osama bin Laden in 1988 after fighting with Arab comrades against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Originally, its main goals were to help Pakistanis fight Iran for control of Afghanistan after the Soviets left, and to prevent oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia from reaching India and reducing Arab exports. Over time, Al-Qaeda took on additional goals of fighting Western influence across Africa and Asia to protect the Islamic oil cartel, while also engaging in internal conflicts within that cartel. It has received funding from Saudi donors but cooperation from Iran at times due to their overlapping interests in places like Africa and Central Asia.
Detainee is recommended for continued detention as he poses a high risk. He is a HIG sub-commander with close familial ties to HIG and Taliban leadership. Detainee was directly involved in planning and executing anti-coalition attacks in Afghanistan. He has extensive knowledge of terrorist groups and infiltration routes. Detainee denies his HIG membership despite evidence to the contrary.
Attack on Afghanistan Formalised before 9/11: was Key to Unlock Route to Gas ...Sadanand Patwardhan
International oilcompanies had long been aware that the former USSR states of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistanand, Kazakhstan have huge reserves of oil and naturalgas. The problem forUS, and other Western oil companies, was how to get oil and gas from these huge land-locked reserves to seaports for export. In1995, the Union Oil Company of California (Unocal) gained an agreement with Turkmenistan to lay a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, across Afghanistan,to the Pakistan coast. Unocal also gained a natural gas agreement with Uzbekistan. Pipelines from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could then merge and cross Afghanistan. Unocal then gained a deal with Uzbekistan's northernneighbour, Kazakhstan, and oil and gas pipelines could then run south from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan and link with the trans-Afghanistan pipelines.
During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US established a covert operation in Afghanistan code named `BearTrap'. This anti-Soviet operation established a base in Afghanistan jointly funded by the US and SaudiArabia--and run by the CIA and Pakistan's ISI. The ISI component was headed by Osama bin Laden [Saudi National and heir of powerful Saudi family with close ties to house of Saud]
In August 1996, Unocal led the formation of Central Asia Gas Pipeline Ltd (Centgas). Unocal invited Taliban leaders to Texas to finalise the Centgasproject. The Telegraph reported on December14,1997, ``Oil barons court Taliban in Texas''.
9/11 was blamed on Osama Bin Laden and Taliban without a shred of evidence being offered only to pre-text attack already planned attack on Afghanistan to have a unified single pro-US government there instead of the violently squabbling factions holding different regions, which made Centgas project impossible. On October 7, 2001, US and UK forces commenced their attack on Afghanistan. However, the US planned an invasion of Afghanistan before the events of 9/11. The Guardian reported on September 22, 2001, ``Threat of US strikes passed to Taliban weeks before New York attack''. Time magazine reported on August 12, 2002, ``They had a plan; long before 9/11''.
Pakistan found itself allied with both the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban after the U.S. overthrew the Taliban government in 2001. Pakistan received substantial military aid from the U.S. but also created and supported the Afghan Taliban to fight Pakistan's enemies in Afghanistan. This left Pakistan trying to please both allies through a contradictory policy of supporting the U.S. against al-Qaeda while also maintaining ties to the Taliban and indirectly to al-Qaeda. Pakistan faced pressure from the U.S. to crack down on militants but attacking al-Qaeda or the Taliban threatened relations with Arab allies and Pakistani groups allied with them.
Detainee assessment brief for ISN US9AG-000310DP held at Guantanamo Bay. The detainee is assessed to be an al-Qaeda and Armed Islamic Group fighter from Algeria who traveled extensively through Europe and Canada using false documents. He received militant training in Afghanistan and resided in al-Qaeda guesthouses. He fled Tora Bora with a large group of al-Qaeda fighters led by a senior member. The detainee is assessed to be a high risk and of medium intelligence value based on his militant training and facilitation network connections.
let-the-dragons-fight-the-dragons-a-h-amin-september-2008Agha A
WAR IS NOT ABOUT ETHICS
GOD IS NEITHER WITH US NOR WITH THEM
THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE IN HISTORY
USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ OR ITS CULMINATING POINT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY
USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical
level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both
USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state
with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.
The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.
Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration.
The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians
Detainee is an admitted Taliban recruiter and commander of Military Base 4 in Jalalabad, Afghanistan. He has an extensive operational association with Usama Bin Laden and al-Qaida dating back to 1990. Detainee provided assistance to Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri during their escape from U.S. and Coalition forces in December 2001. He also provided security for al-Qaida personnel in Tora Bora in 1999-2000 and protection to Bin Laden in 1996. Detainee worked closely with al-Qaida and possibly participated in narcotics smuggling. JTF-GTMO assesses the detainee to be a high risk and of high intelligence value.
After the Iranian revolution, the US allied with Saudi Arabia for oil and Turkey as a counter to Russia. When Saudi Arabia and Turkey started looking elsewhere, the US turned to Iraq to liberate the Shiite and Kurdish populations oppressed by Saddam Hussein's Sunni minority. However, neighboring Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey did not want an independent Kurdistan and opposed US involvement for fear it could empower their own Kurdish populations. The Iraq war thus sparked opposition from countries in the region.
Detainee is assessed to be an al-Qaida operative with ties to senior leaders. He has admitted to affiliations with terrorist groups including GIA and HIG. Detainee trained at militant camps, fought Soviets in Afghanistan, and worked for the Taliban Foreign and Intelligence Ministries. He was captured in Pakistan and transferred to Guantanamo for suspected involvement in terrorist plots and attacks. Detainee has omitted details of his activities prior to capture, making his threat level and intelligence value difficult to assess fully.
Haji Sahib Rohullah Wakil is assessedto pose a high risk threat. He is a 45-year-old Afghan citizen and important politician from Konar Province who provided operational support to al-Qaida. Detainee assisted Arabs associated with al-Qaida to infiltrate and exfiltrate from Afghanistan and Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban regime. He also worked with anti-Afghan government factions and Pakistani intelligence to destabilize the interim Afghan administration. Detainee remains a threat due to his past involvement with al-Qaida, support for insurgent groups, and efforts to undermine the Afghan government.
The document discusses the historical relations between Pakistan and Iran. It notes that Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and that the two countries have had close geopolitical and cultural ties. However, it also points out some factors that have damaged relations, including supporting opposing groups in Afghanistan during the 1990s, sectarian violence, and tensions arising from Iran's criticism of Pakistan taking US aid and demanding Pakistan sever ties with the US after 1979.
The document discusses the potential consequences of a US bombing of Iran to end its nuclear program. It argues that Iran would not easily surrender and could retaliate in damaging ways. Its military has been preparing for decades and it has developed advanced weapons and naval warfare tactics. Attacking Iran could also unify the Iranian public against the US and embolden Iran to rebuild its nuclear program faster. Instead, the sanctions currently imposed on Iran are having a strong economic impact and could provide a better long-term solution by creating political instability that replaces the current regime.
PAK-Iran Relation: after Islamic Revolution in Iran till 2013 Fast Nuces ISB
This document summarizes Pakistan-Iran relations from the Iranian Revolution in 1979 until 2013. It discusses the cultural and religious ties between the two countries dating back to Pakistan's independence in 1947. It then analyzes the relationship during different time periods, including strong ties initially after the revolution, growing divides in the 1990s due to sectarian conflicts and nuclear issues, improved trade under Musharraf in the post-9/11 era, and focus on energy projects under Zardari. The document concludes that sectarianism, diverging Afghan policies, US influence on Pakistan, and ties to Saudi Arabia have been the main causes of divergence between the two countries over time.
This document discusses the transition from a bi-polar world dominated by the US and USSR to a multi-polar world with multiple power centers emerging. It notes China and Russia's increasing economic and military power and their efforts to assert influence globally. The US is taking steps like its Asia-Pacific policy to maintain primacy but power is shifting. The future could see more stability or conflict between states as they adjust to the new dynamic, complex multi-polar system. Pakistan is also adjusting its foreign policy to address security and economic concerns in the changing world order.
This document outlines a hypothetical scenario of a third world war beginning in 2014. It describes nuclear attacks launched by the US against China and Pakistan, as well as Indian forces invading Pakistan by land. However, China and Pakistan were both prepared to withstand such attacks and launch devastating counterattacks that destroyed US and Indian forces. The end result was the collapse of the US and severe damage to India, while Pakistan emerged victorious having survived the initial onslaught and turned the tide of war.
The document summarizes the impact of 9/11 and the subsequent War on Terror on Pakistan. It discusses how Pakistan agreed to support the US by providing military/intelligence assistance. This caused devastating effects in Pakistan like a rise in terrorism, loss of lives, damage to the economy and tourism. It also discusses Indian interference in Pakistan through sponsorship of terrorist groups and the Balochistan insurgency. The document concludes by outlining counterterrorism operations conducted by the Pakistani military to combat terrorist groups.
- War clouds are gathering as Russia threatens to invade Ukraine and China flexes its muscles on the India-China border. Both countries have rebuilt their economies and militaries while Western powers have aging equipment.
- China and Russia want to show strength domestically and see Western treaties as having truncated their nations. They have penetrated Western systems through cyber and economic means.
- The global power balance has shifted eastward as Western nations ceded manufacturing and technology to Asia. A future world war would likely be in Asia between East and West. India would struggle to fight on multiple fronts against China and Pakistan.
The Geopolitics of Energy and Terrorism Part 10iakovosal
Τhe connection between the energy policies of various countries with the wars that break out at various parts of the world, i.e. at the Middle East and North Africa etc
The document summarizes the history and current state of relations between Pakistan and Iran. It notes that Pakistan and Iran have longstanding cultural, economic, and political ties dating back to 1949. Key points of cooperation have included trade agreements, joint economic commissions, Iranian support for Pakistan in its wars with India, and discussions around a proposed natural gas pipeline to strengthen economic integration. However, tensions have also emerged at times due to differing positions on issues like the Afghan conflict and Iran's nuclear program. Overall the document outlines the complex relationship between the two neighboring countries.
This document provides background on the war in Afghanistan, including the Soviet invasion in the late 1970s and 1980s and subsequent US involvement through supporting mujahideen groups. It discusses theories that the US invasion in 2001 after 9/11 was partially motivated by securing access to Central Asian oil reserves by establishing a stable government and constructing an oil pipeline through Afghanistan. The document outlines the history of Taliban rule in Afghanistan and their refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, which led to the US invasion. However, it notes the war has now stalled with no clear path to resolution as the Taliban remains active and oppositional.
The document summarizes the rise of the Mongol Empire from its founding by Temujin (who took the name Chinggis Khan) in the 12th century through its expansion across Asia and Eastern Europe led by Chinggis Khan and subsequent Khans, until its eventual decline in the 14th century. It describes how Chinggis Khan united the Mongol tribes and established the largest contiguous land empire in history. The Mongols then conquered much of Eurasia under Chinggis Khan and his successors like Ogedai Khan and Kublai Khan, including parts of China, Russia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and India. Though initially very violent, the Mongol Empire also stimulated trade and cultural exchange across its
Foreign policy of pakistan under musharraf regimeusman ali
General Pervez Musharraf pursued an active foreign policy both before and after 9/11. Prior to 9/11, he focused on improving relations with India and Afghanistan. After 9/11, Pakistan strongly aligned with the US in the war on terror in exchange for economic and military aid. Musharraf also tried to improve ties with India, though tensions remained over Kashmir. Pakistan maintained close relations with China but also strengthened cooperation with the US.
The document provides an overview of Korean culture, history, society and traditions. It discusses Korea's brief history, including the Three Kingdoms period and subsequent dynasties. It also covers Korea's geo-political context during the Korean War. Additional topics include the economy, education system, demographics, religion, social customs, traditional and modern art forms, and cuisine.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long and complex relationship. The Durand Line border was established in 1893 but disputed by Afghanistan. Relations were initially strained but improved after visits by leaders in the 1950s. The 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars saw Afghanistan support or remain neutral towards Pakistan. The Soviet invasion of 1979 threatened Pakistan's security and it supported the US-backed mujahideen. After 9/11, Pakistan had to choose between supporting the US war on terror or facing retaliation, and opted to back the US-led operation in Afghanistan. Relations have continued with high-level visits and agreements but tensions remain due to militant activity and Indian influence in Afghanistan.
1) Joining the US-led war on terror after 9/11 had both benefits and costs for Pakistan. It helped Pakistan overcome sanctions and gain economic/military assistance, but also resulted in heavy security and economic costs domestically.
2) Pakistan faced difficult foreign policy choices in revising its Afghan policy and balancing support for Kashmir independence while cooperating with the US.
3) Unilateral US drone strikes inside Pakistan fueled anti-American sentiment and made counterterrorism efforts more difficult, while also threatening Pakistan's sovereignty. Overall, Pakistan paid a heavy price for its role in the US-led war on terror.
Pakistan and Iran have a long history of close relations since Pakistan's establishment in 1947. Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and the two countries signed a treaty of friendship in 1950. They have supported each other both militarily and economically over the years, including during the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistan wars. While relations faced some difficulties during the Soviet-Afghan war and rise of the Taliban, the countries have worked to rehabilitate ties in recent decades. They continue economic cooperation like on a proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and aim to strengthen security cooperation along their shared border.
Compensated Mass Balance Method For Oil Pipeline Leakage Detection using SCADACSCJournals
This document describes a study that aims to implement a cost-effective pipeline leakage detection method using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. It discusses different leakage detection methods including pressure monitoring and mass balancing. The proposed method is a compensated mass balance approach that uses SCADA data and transient pipeline modeling to calculate inventory changes and detect imbalances indicating leaks. The method is simulated using Rockwell Automation software to build a SCADA system model and apply real-time transient modeling techniques to detect leaks. The results obtained are presented and discussed.
The Geopolitics of Energy & Terrorism Part 2iakovosal
The issue in all the essays is the connection between the energy policies of various countries, their foreign policies, and the wars that break out at various parts of the globe, since all three are closely related.
The geopolitics of energy & terrorism part 9iakovosal
This document provides background information on geopolitical issues related to energy and terrorism. It discusses the ethnic groups and borders in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia and China. It describes how the Taliban are comprised mainly of Pashtuns from Afghanistan and Pakistan. It also discusses how the "Great Game" between Britain and Russia evolved into the "New Great Game" between global powers competing for influence and access to oil/gas in Central Asia after the Soviet collapse. Additionally, it details Germany's role in supporting Lenin and the rise of Russian communism before WWI to weaken their rival, the Russian Empire.
Detainee is assessed to be an al-Qaida operative with ties to senior leaders. He has admitted to affiliations with terrorist groups including GIA and HIG. Detainee trained at militant camps, fought Soviets in Afghanistan, and worked for the Taliban Foreign and Intelligence Ministries. He was captured in Pakistan and transferred to Guantanamo for suspected involvement in terrorist plots and attacks. Detainee has omitted details of his activities prior to capture, making his threat level and intelligence value difficult to assess fully.
Haji Sahib Rohullah Wakil is assessedto pose a high risk threat. He is a 45-year-old Afghan citizen and important politician from Konar Province who provided operational support to al-Qaida. Detainee assisted Arabs associated with al-Qaida to infiltrate and exfiltrate from Afghanistan and Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban regime. He also worked with anti-Afghan government factions and Pakistani intelligence to destabilize the interim Afghan administration. Detainee remains a threat due to his past involvement with al-Qaida, support for insurgent groups, and efforts to undermine the Afghan government.
The document discusses the historical relations between Pakistan and Iran. It notes that Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and that the two countries have had close geopolitical and cultural ties. However, it also points out some factors that have damaged relations, including supporting opposing groups in Afghanistan during the 1990s, sectarian violence, and tensions arising from Iran's criticism of Pakistan taking US aid and demanding Pakistan sever ties with the US after 1979.
The document discusses the potential consequences of a US bombing of Iran to end its nuclear program. It argues that Iran would not easily surrender and could retaliate in damaging ways. Its military has been preparing for decades and it has developed advanced weapons and naval warfare tactics. Attacking Iran could also unify the Iranian public against the US and embolden Iran to rebuild its nuclear program faster. Instead, the sanctions currently imposed on Iran are having a strong economic impact and could provide a better long-term solution by creating political instability that replaces the current regime.
PAK-Iran Relation: after Islamic Revolution in Iran till 2013 Fast Nuces ISB
This document summarizes Pakistan-Iran relations from the Iranian Revolution in 1979 until 2013. It discusses the cultural and religious ties between the two countries dating back to Pakistan's independence in 1947. It then analyzes the relationship during different time periods, including strong ties initially after the revolution, growing divides in the 1990s due to sectarian conflicts and nuclear issues, improved trade under Musharraf in the post-9/11 era, and focus on energy projects under Zardari. The document concludes that sectarianism, diverging Afghan policies, US influence on Pakistan, and ties to Saudi Arabia have been the main causes of divergence between the two countries over time.
This document discusses the transition from a bi-polar world dominated by the US and USSR to a multi-polar world with multiple power centers emerging. It notes China and Russia's increasing economic and military power and their efforts to assert influence globally. The US is taking steps like its Asia-Pacific policy to maintain primacy but power is shifting. The future could see more stability or conflict between states as they adjust to the new dynamic, complex multi-polar system. Pakistan is also adjusting its foreign policy to address security and economic concerns in the changing world order.
This document outlines a hypothetical scenario of a third world war beginning in 2014. It describes nuclear attacks launched by the US against China and Pakistan, as well as Indian forces invading Pakistan by land. However, China and Pakistan were both prepared to withstand such attacks and launch devastating counterattacks that destroyed US and Indian forces. The end result was the collapse of the US and severe damage to India, while Pakistan emerged victorious having survived the initial onslaught and turned the tide of war.
The document summarizes the impact of 9/11 and the subsequent War on Terror on Pakistan. It discusses how Pakistan agreed to support the US by providing military/intelligence assistance. This caused devastating effects in Pakistan like a rise in terrorism, loss of lives, damage to the economy and tourism. It also discusses Indian interference in Pakistan through sponsorship of terrorist groups and the Balochistan insurgency. The document concludes by outlining counterterrorism operations conducted by the Pakistani military to combat terrorist groups.
- War clouds are gathering as Russia threatens to invade Ukraine and China flexes its muscles on the India-China border. Both countries have rebuilt their economies and militaries while Western powers have aging equipment.
- China and Russia want to show strength domestically and see Western treaties as having truncated their nations. They have penetrated Western systems through cyber and economic means.
- The global power balance has shifted eastward as Western nations ceded manufacturing and technology to Asia. A future world war would likely be in Asia between East and West. India would struggle to fight on multiple fronts against China and Pakistan.
The Geopolitics of Energy and Terrorism Part 10iakovosal
Τhe connection between the energy policies of various countries with the wars that break out at various parts of the world, i.e. at the Middle East and North Africa etc
The document summarizes the history and current state of relations between Pakistan and Iran. It notes that Pakistan and Iran have longstanding cultural, economic, and political ties dating back to 1949. Key points of cooperation have included trade agreements, joint economic commissions, Iranian support for Pakistan in its wars with India, and discussions around a proposed natural gas pipeline to strengthen economic integration. However, tensions have also emerged at times due to differing positions on issues like the Afghan conflict and Iran's nuclear program. Overall the document outlines the complex relationship between the two neighboring countries.
This document provides background on the war in Afghanistan, including the Soviet invasion in the late 1970s and 1980s and subsequent US involvement through supporting mujahideen groups. It discusses theories that the US invasion in 2001 after 9/11 was partially motivated by securing access to Central Asian oil reserves by establishing a stable government and constructing an oil pipeline through Afghanistan. The document outlines the history of Taliban rule in Afghanistan and their refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, which led to the US invasion. However, it notes the war has now stalled with no clear path to resolution as the Taliban remains active and oppositional.
The document summarizes the rise of the Mongol Empire from its founding by Temujin (who took the name Chinggis Khan) in the 12th century through its expansion across Asia and Eastern Europe led by Chinggis Khan and subsequent Khans, until its eventual decline in the 14th century. It describes how Chinggis Khan united the Mongol tribes and established the largest contiguous land empire in history. The Mongols then conquered much of Eurasia under Chinggis Khan and his successors like Ogedai Khan and Kublai Khan, including parts of China, Russia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and India. Though initially very violent, the Mongol Empire also stimulated trade and cultural exchange across its
Foreign policy of pakistan under musharraf regimeusman ali
General Pervez Musharraf pursued an active foreign policy both before and after 9/11. Prior to 9/11, he focused on improving relations with India and Afghanistan. After 9/11, Pakistan strongly aligned with the US in the war on terror in exchange for economic and military aid. Musharraf also tried to improve ties with India, though tensions remained over Kashmir. Pakistan maintained close relations with China but also strengthened cooperation with the US.
The document provides an overview of Korean culture, history, society and traditions. It discusses Korea's brief history, including the Three Kingdoms period and subsequent dynasties. It also covers Korea's geo-political context during the Korean War. Additional topics include the economy, education system, demographics, religion, social customs, traditional and modern art forms, and cuisine.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long and complex relationship. The Durand Line border was established in 1893 but disputed by Afghanistan. Relations were initially strained but improved after visits by leaders in the 1950s. The 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars saw Afghanistan support or remain neutral towards Pakistan. The Soviet invasion of 1979 threatened Pakistan's security and it supported the US-backed mujahideen. After 9/11, Pakistan had to choose between supporting the US war on terror or facing retaliation, and opted to back the US-led operation in Afghanistan. Relations have continued with high-level visits and agreements but tensions remain due to militant activity and Indian influence in Afghanistan.
1) Joining the US-led war on terror after 9/11 had both benefits and costs for Pakistan. It helped Pakistan overcome sanctions and gain economic/military assistance, but also resulted in heavy security and economic costs domestically.
2) Pakistan faced difficult foreign policy choices in revising its Afghan policy and balancing support for Kashmir independence while cooperating with the US.
3) Unilateral US drone strikes inside Pakistan fueled anti-American sentiment and made counterterrorism efforts more difficult, while also threatening Pakistan's sovereignty. Overall, Pakistan paid a heavy price for its role in the US-led war on terror.
Pakistan and Iran have a long history of close relations since Pakistan's establishment in 1947. Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and the two countries signed a treaty of friendship in 1950. They have supported each other both militarily and economically over the years, including during the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistan wars. While relations faced some difficulties during the Soviet-Afghan war and rise of the Taliban, the countries have worked to rehabilitate ties in recent decades. They continue economic cooperation like on a proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and aim to strengthen security cooperation along their shared border.
Compensated Mass Balance Method For Oil Pipeline Leakage Detection using SCADACSCJournals
This document describes a study that aims to implement a cost-effective pipeline leakage detection method using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. It discusses different leakage detection methods including pressure monitoring and mass balancing. The proposed method is a compensated mass balance approach that uses SCADA data and transient pipeline modeling to calculate inventory changes and detect imbalances indicating leaks. The method is simulated using Rockwell Automation software to build a SCADA system model and apply real-time transient modeling techniques to detect leaks. The results obtained are presented and discussed.
The Geopolitics of Energy & Terrorism Part 2iakovosal
The issue in all the essays is the connection between the energy policies of various countries, their foreign policies, and the wars that break out at various parts of the globe, since all three are closely related.
The geopolitics of energy & terrorism part 9iakovosal
This document provides background information on geopolitical issues related to energy and terrorism. It discusses the ethnic groups and borders in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia and China. It describes how the Taliban are comprised mainly of Pashtuns from Afghanistan and Pakistan. It also discusses how the "Great Game" between Britain and Russia evolved into the "New Great Game" between global powers competing for influence and access to oil/gas in Central Asia after the Soviet collapse. Additionally, it details Germany's role in supporting Lenin and the rise of Russian communism before WWI to weaken their rival, the Russian Empire.
Contolling Costs And Risks In Construction Of The Trans Alaska Oil PipelineWayne Holley
For several years I worked on the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline, first as a surveyor and later as a systems analyst. A few weeks ago, in my Controlling Project Costs and Risks class at University of California San Diego, we were assigned to write a short paper connecting a project with the class material. I chose to write about the pipeline project.
- Russia is a major global energy producer and exporter, holding the largest natural gas reserves and being the largest gas exporter in the world. It relies heavily on gas exports to Europe.
- Russia has taken steps to solidify its position as a key European energy supplier through pipelines like Nord Stream and planned South Stream, aiming to reduce reliance on Ukraine for gas transit. However, Western powers seek to decrease European dependence on Russian gas.
- Geopolitical conflicts between Russia and the West, like those in Ukraine and Syria, have an energy dimension as they involve control over gas infrastructure and pipelines transporting gas out of the region.
Conference on "Africa at the center of the new geopolitics of energy"Ahlam Namir
We are pleased to inform you that the African Academy of Energy (ACAFE) will hold a conference on "Africa at the center of the new geopolitics of energy" followed by a training session on the General Situation of the Energy Sector and Oil with a focus on refining and marketing in 2014.
The event will be lead on September 2nd and 3rd by Mr. Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC, Consultant at WDCooperation and president for the association of Energy Development in Africa, and will take place at ACAFE conference room.
Done by Group: Wakrag_rock8
School: Al Wakra Independent School for Girls
Composites Module: Students discover what composite materials are and test them to learn their advantages over pure materials. Finally, at the end of the workshop, they design new composite materials.
This project: Fighting corrosion in oil pipeline.
The Caspian region is seeing renewed interest and opportunities for oil and gas M&A deals in 2011. Acquisition multiples in Kazakhstan fell significantly from 2007-2009 but have room to recover as risks associated with contract renegotiations primarily affect major projects, not smaller producers. Several sizable producing assets valued over $1 billion remain available at reasonable multiples and have been on the market since 2009. The gap between seller expectations and acquirer spending ability post-recession is shrinking, and a few larger deals are expected to close in early 2011. Small cap explorers are also obtaining funding for higher-risk exploration projects.
A Summary of the Wars of the 21st Centuryiakovosal
The document provides summaries of several 21st century wars including:
- The Iraq War of 2003 where the US sought to overthrow Saddam Hussein to allow Iraqi oil to flow freely.
- The Afghanistan War of 2001 where the US fought the Taliban to enable Central Asian oil and gas exports to bypass rivals like Iran.
- The Arab Spring uprisings in Syria and Libya which were influenced by regional powers seeking to gain control over energy resources and transportation routes.
- The War in Ukraine stemming from Russia and Ukraine's competition over natural gas exports to Europe.
- Conflicts involving the Kurds as their territories in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey contain significant oil and gas reserves important to
Hasan Mahsun was the leader of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which wants an independent Muslim Xin Jiang province in China. In 2003, the United States, Pakistan, and China killed Mahsun while he was hiding in Pakistan. Similarly, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan ended, the United States wanted to transport oil and gas from Central Asia through Afghanistan, but faced opposition from the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The 9/11 attacks on the United States were planned by Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, with support from Iran and other countries.
The document discusses the geopolitical rivalry between various powers over control and influence in Central Asia, referred to as the "New Great Game". It describes how after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States, China, India, Russia, and others have competed for political and economic influence in the region. Control over Central Asia's oil and gas reserves and transportation routes has been a key factor driving this modern Great Game.
Before World War 1, Germany and Austria supported the Ottoman Empire and promoted Pan-Islamism in Africa to counter British and French control. After World War 1, the British and French gained even more control over Africa and the Middle East. During World War 2, Hitler continued the Kaiser's policy of collaborating with Islamists, including the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, to counter British and French influence as Germany had during World War 1. After World War 2, Western countries sometimes supported Islamists against Soviet-backed socialist rulers in the Middle East, while Russia now supports some Islamists against Western interests. The geopolitical relationships between world powers and Islamist groups have shifted over time based on changing strategic interests.
Erdogan's Efforts to Unite the Muslim Worldiakovosal
Erdogan attempted to unite Iran and Saudi Arabia at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit by positioning the Saudi King to his right and Iranian President to his left. However, achieving détente between the two rivals will be difficult due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts over oil exports, religious differences, and support for opposing factions in regional conflicts. While increased cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia could benefit Turkey's goals of reducing dependence on Russian gas, many challenges around other countries' interests remain.
Turkey, Russia, China, and Iran all seek to increase their influence in Central Asia for economic and geopolitical reasons. Central Asia is important due to its natural resource wealth and location bordering these major powers. Turkey specifically aims to transport Central Asian oil and gas to Europe to reduce Russian dominance and earn transit fees. Russia wants to prevent loss of influence after the Soviet Union's collapse and Chinese economic engagement in the region. China seeks Central Asian energy to power its economy. Geopolitical relationships in Central Asia are complex with each country pursuing its own strategic interests.
Germany's Role in the Rise of Lenin and the Russian Communismiakovosal
- Germany supported and financed Russian communists like Lenin before WWI in order to weaken Russia, their rival empire.
- Winston Churchill described Germany sending Lenin into Russia "like sending a phial of cholera or typhoid into a city's water supply."
- This German "investment" paid off when the communists seized power in 1917 and took Russia out of the war, weakening the allies and helping Germany despite their eventual defeat.
The document discusses Osama bin Laden's history and relationships with Iran. It states that after being exiled from Saudi Arabia for his opposition to U.S. troops in the country, bin Laden went to Sudan in 1992 where Iran, Sudan, and Hezbollah trained his men as they shared enemies in NATO and Saudi Arabia. In 1996, bin Laden went to Afghanistan and was given refuge by the Taliban. Rumors indicated bin Laden may have lived comfortably in Iran from 2003-2009, enjoying protection from the Iranian government, as Iran had accommodated other al Qaeda leaders in the past due to their shared opposition to the U.S. and Saudis.
The Russian Expedtions in Afghanistan (1979) and Syria (2015) : A Comparisoniakovosal
The document provides a detailed comparison of Russia's expeditions to Afghanistan in 1979 and Syria in 2015. Some key similarities and differences include:
- In both cases, Russia aimed to support socialist governments from Islamist opposition, but faced resistance from various countries for different reasons.
- Russia's goals and challenges were greater in Afghanistan, as it faced united opposition from the US, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Gulf Arabs who all saw the invasion as a threat.
- Russia's role is more limited in Syria, aiming to support Assad in coastal areas rather than control the whole country. It has support from Iran and Iraq against Islamist groups backed by Turkey and Gulf Arabs.
- Geopolit
- The Paris terrorist attacks of November 2015 suggested a shift in ISIS strategy, as they directly targeted the West for the first time. Previously, ISIS had mainly targeted Shiite Muslims and not Western countries.
- For Al Qaeda, the West has long been an enemy because of US efforts to control oil pipelines from Central Asia and its military presence in Saudi Arabia after 1991. This led to major terrorist attacks on US soil like 9/11.
- In contrast, ISIS saw the West as useful initially in its goal of overthrowing Assad in Syria, who was allied with Russia and Iran. But Western reluctance to intervene more strongly in Syria may be changing ISIS' calculus regarding the West.
The document discusses Pakistan's geopolitical landscape and alliances. It describes three major economic projects Pakistan is involved in - a natural gas pipeline from Iran, the TAPI pipeline bringing Turkmen gas to India, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan wants stability to enable these projects but faces issues like terrorism. The document says Pakistan is trying to negotiate with the Taliban for stability in Afghanistan to help its economic interests and relationships with the US and China.
This document analyzes and compares the foreign policy doctrines of Obama and Trump as they relate to the Middle East, Russia, and China. It argues that the Obama doctrine promoted Muslim Brotherhood interests and the Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline, pushing Russia towards China. The Trump doctrine, in contrast, is friendlier to Russia and seeks to curb Chinese influence in the region by leaving Syria to Russia and not promoting Muslim Brotherhood interests. However, the Trump doctrine may weaken some US allies like Qatar and France.
This document discusses the history and origins of Afghanistan and the Taliban. It notes that Arabs introduced Islam to Afghanistan in the 7th century. It then discusses the various dynasties that ruled Afghanistan and the wars with Persia. It notes that modern Afghanistan was established in 1774 when Afghans retook Kandahar from Persia. The document also discusses the emergence of the Taliban in 1994 during Afghanistan's civil war following the Soviet withdrawal and the group's rise to power in 1996 under Mullah Omar.
This document discusses the history and origins of Afghanistan and the Taliban. It notes that Arabs introduced Islam to Afghanistan in the 7th century. It went through various dynastic rules and wars with Persia until the modern state of Afghanistan was established in 1774. The Taliban emerged in 1994 during Afghanistan's civil war following the Soviet withdrawal. Within two years, they gained control of most of the country under harsh Islamic rule. The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to eliminate al-Qaeda in response to 9/11 and remove the Taliban from power. However, the Taliban regained strength and the US withdrawal agreement in 2020 did not stop their attacks on Afghan forces and civilians.
- Iran, Sudan, and Hezbollah had previously strongly supported Al-Qaeda in attacking France in Africa by providing weapons, funding, and intelligence support. Sudan provided Iran a corridor to project influence and support terrorist groups in West Africa.
- However, the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and Sudan realigning with Saudi Arabia reduced Iran and Sudan's ability to support Al-Qaeda against France. This changed the threat environment for attacks on France emanating from Africa.
- Turkey is also an enemy of France but cannot strongly support Al-Qaeda due to its alliance with the United States, against whom Al-Qaeda also operates.
Is the Reconciliation Between Turkey and Israel Viable?iakovosal
Turkey and Israel announced an agreement to normalize relations after six years of tensions. The deal includes Turkey dropping lawsuits against Israeli officials, limiting Hamas activities in Turkey, and facilitating humanitarian aid to Gaza. However, the reconciliation faces challenges, as Turkey may struggle to curb Hamas due to domestic political pressures and its close ties with the group. Any future conflict in Gaza could also cause Turkey's president to recall its ambassador from Israel to appease domestic critics. The viability of the deal remains uncertain.
The document summarizes the history of Western influence and development in the Middle East from the decline of the Ottoman Empire to modern times. It discusses how European imperialism contributed to the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century. Many former Ottoman lands came under European control, such as Britain's influence over Egypt. Nationalist movements emerged among Arab populations seeking independence. The establishment of Israel led to ongoing Arab-Israeli conflicts over Palestine. The Cold War saw the US and Soviet Union vie for influence in the region. The development of oil industry boosted some countries' economies but also led to tensions. Islamic fundamentalism emerged as a response to Westernization.
The document provides historical context on the war in Afghanistan, discussing key events from the Soviet invasion in 1979 to the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s and their takeover of Kabul in 1996 with Pakistani support. It then analyzes wider geopolitical implications, including concerns over instability in Central Asia, the Gulf, the Indian Ocean region, and the strategic interests and rivalries of major powers like China, India, Russia, Iran and Pakistan in gaining access to the region's oil and gas resources.
The document discusses rising anti-Semitism in Turkey and changing geopolitics in the region. It notes that the Israeli defense minister accused Turkey of funding ISIS with Putin, straining Turkish-Israeli relations. Meanwhile, Putin invited Jews to Russia to escape European anti-Semitism. Historically, the Ottomans protected Jews fleeing European persecution. However, rising Islamism in Turkey has increased Turkish anti-Semitism since 2003. The document argues this has united Russia and Israel in opposition to Sunni Islamism, while Turkey has become more anti-Semitic than Europe.
Powerpoint for persepolis historical backgroundtaichung
Iran has a long history, with the earliest settlers being Aryans around 1500 BC. The Persian Empire dominated the region for centuries until being conquered by Alexander the Great. Modern Iran was shaped by dynasties like the Qajars and Pahlavis; Reza Shah sought to modernize the country in the early 20th century. However, his son Mohammad Reza Shah grew increasingly authoritarian, facing opposition until the 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew the monarchy and established an Islamic republic led by Ayatollah Khomeini.
Similar to The Afghan Oil Pipeline and the US Negotiations with the Taliban (20)
Shark Tank Jargon | Operational ProfitabilityTheUnitedIndian
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Recent years have seen a disturbing rise in violence, discrimination, and intolerance against Christian communities in various Islamic countries. This multifaceted challenge, deeply rooted in historical, social, and political animosities, demands urgent attention. Despite the escalating persecution, substantial support from the Western world remains lacking.
Christian persecution in Islamic countries has intensified, with alarming incidents of violence, discrimination, and intolerance. This article highlights recent attacks in Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq, exposing the multifaceted challenges faced by Christian communities. Despite the severity of these atrocities, the Western world's response remains muted due to political, economic, and social considerations. The urgent need for international intervention is underscored, emphasizing that without substantial support, the future of Christianity in these regions is at grave risk.
https://ecspe.org/the-rise-of-christian-persecution-in-islamic-countries/
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The Afghan Oil Pipeline and the US Negotiations with the Taliban
1. The Afghan Oil Pipeline
and the US Negotiations
with the Taliban
2. I always mention the TAPI Pipeline (Turkmenistna-Afghanistan-Pakistan-
India), which would unlock the natural gas of Central Asia (Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan), and send it to India and the Indian Ocean.
Map 1
But together with the TAPI pipeline the Americans were also promoting the
Afghan Oil Pipeline, which would also unlock the oil of Central Asia
(Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan) and send it to the Indian Ocean oo. See Wikipedia
link below.
Whether the TAPI or the Afghan Oil Pipeine was more important I do not
know. Probably they were equally important for India and the Americans.
Obviously TAPI is more important for Turkmenistan, and the Afghan Oil
3. pipeline is more important for Kazakhstan, but what I am talking about is the
point of view of the larger players.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Muslim colonies of the Soviet
Union became independent communist dictatorships, under the leadership of
the local communist leaders i.e. Aliyev in Azerbaijan, Karimov in
Uzbekistan, Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan, and Niyazov in Turkmenistan.
For the Americans it was very important to unlock the oil and gas reserves
of Central Asia.
Map 2
Besides the obvious reasons, by unlocking the oil and gas of Central Asia,
and by sending it to India, the Americans would ensure that Central Asia
would no longer being dependent on Russia, Iran and China. The best thing
4. was that the Communist dictators of the new countries wanted exactly the
same thing, even though they were afraid of Russia and Iran.
Russia and Iran are competing with these countries in the oil and gas
markets, and China has almost monopsony power over them and can get
their oil and gas at lower than normal prices, since they Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan have no real alternatives.
Iran and Russia block Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan when they
try to send their oil and gas to Europe through Turkey. Especially they block
Turkmenistan and Kazakstan by not permitting the under-water Trans-
Caspian Pipeline, which would connect Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. From
the south the Islamist militants who are supported by Iran and the Arabs of
the Gulf are blocking in Afghanistan the countries of Central Asia from
reaching India.
When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 1996, only Pakistan, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recognized their government. The
Americans were asking from the Taliban to allow the construction of the
pipelines, and in return the Americans were willing to recognize their
government.
Iran, together with the Arabs of the Gulf, was trying to sabotage the
negotiations, but at the same time Iran was almost at war with the Taliban,
due to their close relationship with Pakistan and the Arabs of the Persian
Gulf. The Taliban had ignored the Islamists of Afghanistan who were
supported by the Iranians, mainly the Shias of Afghanistan, who are 20% of
5. the population, and who had formed an alliance with some Tajics and
Uzbeks of Northern Afghanistan, the so called Northern Alliance. The
Northern Alliance was also supported by Russia and India, while the Taliban
were supported by Pakistan and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf.
Map 3
While the Americans were negotiating with the Talibans, Al Qaeda, an ally
of the Taliban, was trying to sabotage their negotiations. Al Qaeda was
providing financial and military assistance to the Taliban, and in 1998 Al
Qaeda attacked the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. Two
hundred people lost their lives, and another four thousands were injured.
From that moment the negotiations between the Americans and the Taliban
took another turn, and the Bill Clinton administration started pushing the
Taliban to hand them Osama bin Laden, and to denounce Al Qaeda. But that
6. was very difficult given that Al Qaeda was supporting financially and
militarily the Taliban.
The fact is that the attacks on the American embassies had exactly the result
that Al Qaeda wanted, which was to undermine the negotiations between
United States and various Taliban factions. At the same time due to the Arab
money the corrupt Taliban leaderships were not willing to allow the
construction of the pipelines, which would be good for all the countries,
except of course for Iran and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.
As I said after the attacks on the American embassies the negotiations
between the Clinton administration and the Taliban went very badly, but
when George Bush came to power in January 2001 he started fresh
negotiations with the Taliban. But Al Qaeda came back with the attack at the
Twin Towers (9/11), and the negotiations were over.
The Americans attacked Afghanistan in 2001, and they overturned the
Taliban government, by supporting the Northern Alliance, which was Iran’s
ally. Even though Iran, together with Iraq (Saddam) and Sudan, had
supported the Saudi terrorists who carried out the attack on the Twin Towers
too. But the attack on the Twin Towers was mainly a Saudi assault, even if
the Saudi King was not involved.
The United States and Iran managed to form a government in Afghanistan,
under the leadership of Karzai, even though the Iranians preferred the Tajik
Rabbani to return to power. Karzai was a Pashtun, but a Durrani Pashtun,
and Pakistan does not have good relations with Durrani Pasthuns of Western
7. Afghanistan. The Pakistanis mainly support the Ghilzais Pashtuns of Eastern
Afghanistan.
It is very difficult for the United States to find a reliable ally in Afghanistan,
because like the Arabs, the Iranians are not willing to allow them to unlock
the reserves of Central Asia. Only China could be a reliable ally for the
Americans in Afghanistan, because China wants peace in Afghanistan too,
but for other reasons of course (i.e. new silk roads, peace in Xin Jiang etc).
A peaceful Afghanistan could cost China her monopsony power over the
Central Asian countries, but I believe that China would be willing to accept
a bit higher prices in order to have a peaceful Afghanistan.
The United States and China have put a lot of pressure on Pakistan, in order
to use its influence over the Taliban for peace to be achieved. Under the US
and Chinese pressure the Pakistanis had to try, and that gave Iran the
opportunity to form a limited alliance with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Iran
is supporting opposing sides in Afghanistan. Now the Russias said that they
want to cooperate with their old enemy the Taliban.
A great article about the American-Taliban negotiations during the Clinton
and Bush administrations, and the Al Qaeda efforts to undermine these
negotiations is “Al-Qaida monitored U.S. negotiations with Taliban over oil
pipeline”, June 2002. Salon is a very big American website, and the author,
Jean Charles Brizard, is a well known French expert on international
terrorism.
8. PS CentGas
CentGas was the consortium that was trying in the 90s to send the natural
gas of Turkmenistan to Pakistan. It was made up of Unocal (US), Gazprom
(Russia), Delta (Saudi Arabia), two Japanese energy companies, one South
Korean, and one Pakistani company.
Do not confuse the private Saudi company Delta with the state owned Saudi
Aramco, which is the queen of Saudi Arabia.
As you can see the Americans had managed to include the Russians in the
project, because Russia was not exporting natural gas to South Asia. Japan
and South Korea, two US allies, were also included, because they do not
have access to natural gas from pipelines, and they buy expensive LNG.
Japan and South Korea, with their huge economies, are the two largest LNG
importers in the world.
See “CentGas”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CentGas
PS 2 The Unocal Announcement for the 9/11 Attack
After the 9/11 attack leftist conspiracy theorists who were paid by the
Islamists and the Communist dictators of Latin America were saying that it
was the Americans who carried out the attack, and not Saudi terrorists with
the support of Iran, Sudan, Iraq and Pakistan.
9. The American energy company Unocal had to publicly announce that it had
stopped negotiations with the Taliban after the bombings of the American
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. And that’s true. Both Unocal and
Gazprom withdrew from the consortium after the bombings of the American
embassies in 1998.
“Company not Supporting the Taliban in Any Way”
https://www.chevron.com/stories/unocal-statement-company-not-
supporting-taliban-in-any-way
Articles
“Al-Qaida monitored U.S. negotiations with Taliban over oil pipeline”, June
2002
A 1998 memo written by al-Qaida military chief Mohammed Atef reveals that Osama bin
Laden’s group had detailed knowledge of negotiations that were taking place between
Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban and American government and business leaders over plans
for a U.S. oil and gas pipeline across that Central Asian country.
The e-mail memo was found in 1998 on a computer seized by the FBI during its
investigation into the 1998 African embassy bombings, which were sponsored by al-
Qaida. Atef’s memo was discovered by FBI counter-terrorism expert John O’Neill, who
left the bureau in 2001, complaining that U.S. oil interests were hindering his
investigation into al-Qaida. O’Neill, who became security chief at the World Trade
Center, died in the Sept. 11 attack.
Atef’s memo shines new light on what al-Qaida knew about U.S. efforts to normalize
relations with the Taliban in exchange for the fundamentalist government’s supporting
the construction of an oil and gas pipeline across Afghanistan. As documented in the
10. book I coauthored with Guillaume Dasquie, “Bin Laden: The Forbidden Truth,” the
Clinton and Bush administrations negotiated with the Taliban, both to get the repressive
regime to widen its government as well as look favorably on U.S. companies’ attempts to
construct an oil pipeline. The Bush White House stepped up negotiations with the
Taliban in 2001. When those talks stalled in July, a Bush administration representative
threatened the Taliban with military reprisals if the government did not go along with
American demands.
The seven-page memo was signed “Abu Hafs,” which is the military name of Atef, who
was the military chief of al-Qaida and is believed to have been killed in November 2001
during U.S. operations in Afghanistan. It shows al-Qaida’s keen interest in the U.S.-
Taliban negotiations and raises new questions as to whether the U.S. military threat to
the Taliban in July 2001 could have prompted al-Qaida’s Sept. 11 attack.
Atef’s memo is not about the pipeline alone, though it mentions the project several times.
It is an analysis of the political situation facing the Taliban. It documents the movement’s
rise, its leadership, the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s
relationship with Pakistan, as well as the movement’s relationship with the Arab
mujahedin. The document’s intended readership is unclear. But it reveals that the
pipeline was seen as a strategic offering toward the West, in order to make the Taliban
government acceptable to the United States and Pakistan, as well as to reduce military
and investigative pressure on the country to rein in or even extradite bin Laden.
Atef explains that the United States wants “to take control of any region which has huge
quantities of oil reserves,” and “the American government is keen on laying the oil and
gas pipelines from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan.” Atef concludes that
al-Qaida’s “duty toward the movement [Taliban] is to stand behind it, support it
materially and morally, especially because its regional and international enemies are
working night and day to put an end to it and make it fail.”
It seems clear the military chief didn’t expect the pipeline negotiations to bear fruit.
Referring to Pakistanis as “nonbelievers,” and noting that the pipeline “will be under
American control … and it also goes through the territories of Pakistan which are allied
to America,” Atef implies that the Taliban has no intention of ultimately cooperating with
11. the project, but is trying to string along the Americans and Pakistanis to win some
breathing room for its unpopular government.
The Atef memo is the latest piece of evidence documenting a murky chapter in recent
American history — the overtures of the last two American administrations to the
repressive Taliban regime. Several U.S. oil companies, most notably Unocal, had been
advocates of diplomatic overtures to the Taliban, in order to facilitate the building of a
pipeline from the Caspian Sea region to Pakistan and the Persian Gulf through
Afghanistan. In 1996, Unocal vice president Chris Taggart described the fall of Kabul to
the Taliban regime as a “very positive step” and urged the U.S. to extend recognition to
the new rulers in Kabul and thus “lead the way to international lending agencies coming
in.”
Just 10 days after the Taliban seized power in Kabul, Zalmay Khalilzad, former National
Security Council official and Unocal consultant who was appointed special envoy to
Afghanistan by President George W. Bush at the end of 2001, argued in a Washington
Post opinion article that the U.S. should try to work with the mullahs and form a broad-
based government that included other factions. “The Taliban does not practice the anti-
U.S. style of fundamentalism practiced by Iran — it is closer to the Saudi model …”
Khalilzad contended, concluding that “we should use as a positive incentive the benefits
that will accrue to Afghanistan from the construction of oil and gas pipelines across its
territory … These projects will only go forward if Afghanistan has a single authoritative
government.”
Soon after, the State Department spokesman Glyn Davies told the New York Times he
had hope that “the new authorities in Kabul will move quickly to restore order and
security and to form a representative interim government that can begin the process of
reconciliation nationwide.” Davies also said the United States “wanted to send
diplomats to Afghanistan to meet with the Taliban and held out the possibility of re-
establishing full diplomatic ties with the country,” according to the Times.
In November 1997 Unocal invited a Taliban delegation to Texas and, in early December,
the company opened a training center at the University of Nebraska, to instruct 137
Afghans in pipeline construction technology. The company also donated to the
university’s Center for Afghanistan Studies. Unocal CEO John Imle estimated that the
12. company spent between $15 and $20 million on its Central Asia oil pipeline (CentGas)
project — on preliminary feasibility studies, humanitarian projects and other efforts to
lobby the Taliban (Unocal equipped the regime with satellite phones, for instance.)
In February 1998, Unocal’s vice president for international relations, John Maresca,
told a House subcommittee hearing on U.S. interests in the Central Asian Republics that
an oil pipeline “would benefit Afghanistan, which would receive revenues from transport
tariffs, and would promote stability and encourage trade and economic development.”
Emphasizing that “the proposed Central Asia Oil Pipeline (CentGas) cannot begin
construction until an internationally recognized Afghanistan government is in place,” he
urged the administration and the Congress “to give strong support to the United
Nations-led peace process in Afghanistan.”
Until the 1998 al-Qaida embassy bombings, the Clinton administration’s approach
toward the Taliban was much the same as Unocal’s: All parties agreed that the political
stabilization of Afghanistan was crucial to the region, and was also a way to gain access
to oil reserves of the Caspian Sea region. Though bin Laden had been in the country
since 1996, the U.S. had not pressured the Taliban to hand him over.
The embassy bombings in August 1998 changed everything. The Clinton administration
denounced the regime and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright turned up the heat on
Taliban human rights abuses. The United Nations imposed sanctions, freezing
Afghanistan’s foreign assets and limiting its citizens’ travel. The U.S. continued to talk to
the Taliban, but the emphasis was on extraditing bin Laden in exchange for international
recognition; the pipeline was off the table. Unocal, which had been close to finalizing its
pipeline deal before the embassy bombings, cancelled it.
When George W. Bush took office in 2001, his administration made new overtures to the
Taliban, and the pipeline deal gained renewed support, as an incentive to get the Taliban
to make political concessions and form a broader government. U.S. representatives met
with Afghanistan’s former King Shah, to see if he might be included in a new
government. And American companies began exploring the failed 1998 pipeline project.
A report by an Afghan-born Enron manager in July 2001, for instance, illustrates that
company’s deep interest in some sort of pipeline deal. Enron had begun funding the same
sorts of humanitarian projects as Unocal had three years earlier.
13. In March 2001, several Taliban officials, including Sayed Rahmattulah Hashimi, Mullah
Omar’s personal advisor, were invited to Washington by their U.S. lobbyist, Leila Helms,
the niece of former CIA Director Richard Helms. The agenda included discussions of
extraditing bin Laden as well as facilitating American companies’ access to oil reserves
in central Asia. The delegation met with representatives of the Directorate of Central
Intelligence (DCI) and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the State Department.
This visit provoked concern and criticism in Washington over how Hashimi obtained a
visa, a plane ticket, security clearance and access to American institutions — including
the State Department and the National Security Council — despite travel restrictions on
Taliban leadership imposed by U.N. sanctions (the official answer was that Hashimi fell
below the rank of senior official covered by the sanctions.)
Four months later, American diplomats met with Taliban emissaries as well as
representatives from Pakistan, Iran and Russia for four days of talks in Berlin in mid-
July. Again, the message was that if the Taliban would extradite bin Laden and form a
broad-based national government, it could win international recognition and reap
extensive economic subsidies from the construction of a pipeline. The meeting was one of
several convened by Francesco Vendrell, a Spanish diplomat who serves as the U.N.’s
chief representative on Afghanistan. The delegates at the July meeting included Robert
Oakley, former U.S. ambassador and Unocal lobbyist; Karl “Rick” Inderfurth, former
assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; Lee Coldren, head of the Office of
Pakistan, Afghan and Bangladesh Affairs in the State Department until 1997; Tom
Simons, former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and the most recent official negotiator with
the Taliban; Niaz Naik, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan; Nikolai Kozyrev, a former
Russian special envoy to Afghanistan; and Saeed Rajai Khorassani, formerly the Iranian
representative to the U.N. The Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef,
attended several sessions with some of the delegates in Berlin, according to Naif Naik,
though officially the Taliban had not been invited. Naik was expected to carry the U.S.
message to the Taliban.
According to Naik, the point of the meeting was that “we would try to convey to them
that if they did certain things, then, gradually, they could win the jackpot, get something
in return from the international community.” It might, Naik said, “be possible to
14. persuade the Taliban that once a broader-based government was in place and the oil
pipeline under way, there would be billions of dollars in commission, and the Taliban
would have their own resources.”
It was at the July meeting, according to Naik, that Tom Simons suggested that
Afghanistan could face an open-ended military operation from bases in Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan if it didn’t accede to U.S. demands. “Ambassador Simons stated that if the
Taliban wouldn’t agree with the plan, and if Pakistan was unable to persuade them, the
United States might use an overt action against Afghanistan,” Naik says. The words used
by Simons were “a military operation,” according to Naik. Another participant
reportedly said the Taliban’s choice was clear: either accept a “carpet of gold” riches
from the pipeline or “a carpet of bombs,” meaning a military strike.
Lee Coldren, a member of the U.S. delegation, also confirmed to the British newspaper
the Guardian the American position at the Berlin meeting. “I think there was some
discussion of the fact that the United States was so disgusted with the Taliban that they
might be considering some military action.”
In statements to newspapers, Simons has offered ambiguous explanations of his
statements at the July meeting. In September, he told the British Guardian: “I’ve known
Naik and considered him a friend for years. He’s an honorable diplomat. I didn’t say
anything like that and didn’t hear anyone else say anything like that. We were clear that
feeling in Washington was strong, and that military action was one of the options down
the road. But details, I don’t know where they came from.”
Yet in a November interview with Le Monde, Simons seemed to confirm that there had
been some talk of U.S. military action. “It is true that the Taliban was asked to deliver
bin Laden and form a [broader] government,” Simons told Le Monde. “We said in July
that we were investigating the attack against the USS Cole in Yemen, and that if there
were solid evidence of the implication of bin Laden, one had to expect a military answer.
One can always inflate such a declaration to see a global threat against the Taliban. But
the American declaration related only to the response to the USS-Cole.
“As for the ‘carpet of gold and the carpet of bombs,’ we actually discussed the need for a
plan for rebuilding for Afghanistan, which would follow a political agreement,” he said,
adding that “It’s possible that a mischievous American participant, after several drinks,
15. may have thought it smart to evoke gold carpets and carpet bombs. Even Americans
can’t resist the temptation to be mischievous.”
The last known meeting between U.S. and Taliban representatives took place in August,
five weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks, when U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Central
Asian affairs Christina Rocca met with the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan Abdul
Salam Zaeef.
It would be unfair to suggest that the U.S. threat in July led to the al-Qaida strike. But
while Simons doesn’t admit that he personally threatened the Taliban with reprisal, he
confirms that only a few weeks before Sept. 11, American diplomats warned of military
action against Afghanistan if its leaders did not meet U.S. economic and political
demands. It is worth asking whether, had this threat been widely known, U.S. intelligence
agencies might have analyzed the information they were receiving about bin Laden’s
plots against the U.S. differently.
Now the newly discovered Atef memo makes clear that in 1998, at least, al-Qaida was
well informed about negotiations between the Taliban and the U.S. on the oil pipeline
and other American concerns. The memo also shows that those negotiations were the
Taliban’s gambit to extend its power; Mullah Omar’s government never had any
intention of allowing U.S. firms to construct an oil pipeline, or letting the U.S. dictate the
members of its ruling body. Given the inside knowledge al-Qaida had about U.S.-Taliban
negotiations, it’s reasonable to suspect bin Laden’s group also received and understood
the U.S. threat of military action delivered in late July as a threat of war.
In the end, though, the U.S. got its way. Interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai decided on
May 30 to revive the pipeline project with Pakistan and Turkmenistan, signing an
agreement under which the three governments agree to implement a pipeline from
Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. Would that U.S. intelligence agencies’
investigations into al-Qaida activities in the months before Sept. 11 had such a
productive ending.
http://www.salon.com/2002/06/05/memo_11/
“Afghanistan Oil Pipeline”