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1. The Russia in Afghanistan
(1979) and Syria (2015)
A Comparison
Iakovos Alhadeff

2. A very interesting article by Al Monitor, titled “Vlad and Yuri: How Putin is
applying the lessons of Afghanistan to Syria”, October 2015. The article
compares the Russian expedition to Afghanistan in 1979 with the Russian
expedition to Syria in 2015. I will use the article, and I will add information
from other sources, in order to write a more detailed comparison of the two
Russian expeditions.
Map 1 Soviet Union
For Russia, the expedition of Afghanistan, 1979-1989, was what the
Vietnam War was for the United States. In Afghanistan the Russians wanted
to help the Communist government remain in power. The Afghan
communists were at war with the Afghan Islamists. In 1989 the Russians

3. finally withdrew from the country, with the Islamists taking control and
starting a new phase of the war. Saudi Arabia and Iran were supporting
different Islamist militant groups in Afghanistan. They still support different
Islamist groups. But that’s another story.
Egypt and Iran
In 1979, when the Soviets decided to enter Afghanistan, great changes were
taking place in the Middle East. In 1979 the Egyptians, who had been
moving closer to the United States, signed a peace treaty with Israel. When
the Egyptians became an American ally and singed a peace treaty with the
Israelis, almost all of the East Mediterranean Sea was under American
influence. Even in Lebanon the West had more influence than the Soviets,
with Syria being the only Russian ally.
Map 2 Eastern Mediterranean Sea

4. However the Russians were not the only ones having problems in 1979.
With the Islamic Revolution of 1979 the Americans lost Iran. Under the
secular King Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran was a strong American ally.
When the Islamists overthrew the Iranian King in 1979, they nationalized
the oil industry and cancelled all international agreements, and the relations
between Iran and the West became very hostile. However Egypt changed
sides and became an American ally, while this was not the case with Iran
and Russia. The primary reason was that Russia was supporting and arming
Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s socialist dictator, who was a great Iranian enemy.
Saddam Hussein did not miss the opportunity presented to him by the
deterioration of the American-Iranian relations, and attacked Iran in 1980,
starting the bloody Iran-Iraq War which lasted until 1988. Saddam Hussein
wanted to take under Iraqi control the rich Iranian oilfields located near the
Iran-Iraq borders at the river Shat al Arab. The Shat al Arab is the
confluence of the rivers Tigers and Euphrates as you can see at the map, and
it is the last border between Iran and Iraq.
Map 3 Shat al Arab River

5. Map 4 Oil (black) and Natural Gas (red) Fields of the Middle East

6. Saddam Hussein was an Arab socialist and a Russian ally, and he was an
enemy of the Arab Islamists of the Persian Gulf i.e. Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates etc. However the Arabs of the Gulf perceived the Shiite
Islamists of Iran as a greater threat than Saddam Hussein, and they supported
the Iraqis in the Iran-Iraq War. The Americans and their allies were very
worried that the war between Iraq and Iran would spillover to Saudi Arabia,
interrupting the oil flow and increasing oil prices, and they decided to
impose an arms embargo on Iraq and Iran at the London Summit of 1984.
However the Westerners were very worried about an Iranian expansion in
the Persian Gulf and they gave limited support to Iraq.

7. Therefore the Soviets, the Americans and the Arabs of the Gulf were
supporting Iraq against Iran. Each one of these players were supporting Iraq
at a different magnitude and for different reasons. The Chinese were
supporting the Iranians because the Chinese wanted to create a Chinese-
Pakistani-Iranian axis. For the Chinese, Pakistani and Iranian connection see
“Pakistan VS Taliban”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/07/23/pakistan-vs-taliban/
Moreover in 1982 the Iranians outlawed the communist party of Iran, the
Tudeh Party. The Iranians also executed many Iranian communists, thus
infuriating the Soviets, after infuriating the West by nationalizing the oil
companies.
What is also very important for the Iranian-Russian relations is that the two
countries are neighbors. Before the small states of Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Armenia were created, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire and the
Persian (Iranian) Empire were clashing for influence. In 1804 the Russians
and the Iranians fought a war in what is today Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Dagestan i.e. the Russo-Persian War of 1804-1813.
Map 5 Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire and Persian Empire

8. In 1826 another Russian-Persian war broke out i.e. the Russo-Persian War of
1826-1828. With these wars the Iranians lost some land which belonged to
the Persian Empire for centuries.
During World War 2 the British invaded Iran from the south and the
Russians invaded it from the north, even though the Iranians wanted to
remain neutral. Finally, the Soviets kept supporting the communists in Iran,
something that caused tensions between the Soviets and the Islamists of Iran.
Therefore there were quite a few reasons why the Soviet-Iranian relations
were problematic. It is true of course that when the Iranian Islamists
overthrew the secular pro-Western Iranian King in 1979, and they declared
the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Soviets were the first to offer them official
recognition. But as I said there were other problems that prevented a cordial
relationship between Iran and Russia. I think that the major problem in the
Iranian-Soviet relations was the alliance between the Soviets and Saddam

9. Hussein, the socialist dictator of Iraq. The main point is that the Iranians
were against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and they were
supporting the Islamists.
Afghanistan
While all these great changes were taking places in Egypt and Iran in 1979,
the Afghan Islamists were challenging the Afghan Communists. The
communist party PDPA (People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan) had
risen to power in Afghanistan with a military coup in 1978. However
Islamist rebels were challenging the Communists and there was a civil war
in large parts of the country. Afghanistan was a very important country for
the Soviets. First of all Afghanistan is located under the rich in gas and oil
Soviet colonies of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, which are predominantly
Muslim countries. If the Islamists took control in Afghanistan they could
help the Muslims of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Moreover Pakistan and
India were allies, and by controlling Afghanistan, Russian and India could
curb the Sino-Pakistani influence in the region. Note that India did not have
an active role in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan even though she was a
Soviet ally.
Map 6 Rich in Oil and Gas Colonies of the Soviet Union

10. But the presence of the Soviet Army in Afghanistan was a problem for the
Americans too, because Russia was approaching the Persian Gulf. At the
time the West was addicted to Saudi oil, and after losing Iraq and Iran the
West could not afford to lose Saudi Arabia too. With the Carter doctrine of
1980 the Americans made clear that they would go to war if the Soviets
were to challenge in anyway the American influence in Saudi Arabia.
Moreover the Soviet presence in Afghanistan was a threat for the Islamists
of Pakistan and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, because the Soviets were
supporting the socialists in these countries, and the socialists could challenge
the Islamist status quo. For the Pakistanis things were even worse because
they would have to fight the Soviets at the north and the Indians at the south.
China-Russia

11. Therefore the U.S., the Iranians, the Arabs and the Pakistanis all disapprove
of the Soviet army entering Afghanistan in 1979. China did like the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan either. China and the Soviet Union were the most
important communist countries, but they had a very problematic relation.
They were fighting for influence over the communist world. Moreover the
Soviets were Indian allies, and India was one of China’s major rivals.
Moreover the Chinese were allies of Pakistan, and the Pakistanis were
American and Saudi allies, and the American and Saudis were the major
rival of the Soviet Union. Therefore sometimes the Soviet and the Chinese
communists managed to cooperate i.e. Vietnam and Korea, and sometimes
they were in opposite camps i.e. Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Somalia. The
Soviets supported the Ethiopians and the Chinese supported the Somalis
during the Ogaden War. During the Angolan Civil War the Soviets and the
Chinese were also supporting opposite sides.
The Chinese, together with the Pakistanis, the Arabs, the Iranians and the
Americans, were supporting the Islamist militants in Afghanistan, who were
fighting the Afghan Communists and the Soviet soldiers.
“Competing hegemonies”
6th
and 7th
Paragraphs
China and Afghanistan had neutral relations with each other during the King's rule.
When the pro Soviet Afghan Communists seized power in Afghanistan in 1978, relations
between China and the Afghan communists quickly turned hostile. The Afghan pro Soviet
communists supported China's enemies in Vietnam and blamed China for supporting
Afghan anti communist militants. China responded to the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan by supporting the Afghan Mujahidin and ramping up their military presence
near Afghanistan in Xinjiang.

12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split#Competing_hegemonies
Besides the issue of India and Pakistan, and their struggle for power in the
communist world, the Soviets and the Chinese had very long borders. The
last Sino-Soviet war took place in 1969. As you can see at the following
map China is located next to the rich oil and gas fields of the former Russian
colonies of Central Asia, and also very close to Western Siberia, which is
Russia’s richest region in oil and natural gas.
Map 7 Soviet Union VS China
Map 8 Russian Oil and Natural Gas Production

13. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18051
Russia was always worried that at some point China could move towards her
oil and gas fields of Western Siberia and Central Asia, and she made sure
that the Sino-Soviet borders were very well armed i.e. Kazakhstan,
Kyrgistan, Tajikistan. Moreover the Soviets had a strong military presence
in communist Mongolia, another Soviet satellite. The Chinese were not
happy to see the Soviet army on their borders. For more information on the
Russian-Chinese relations see Russia VS China.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/russia-vs-china/
From all the above it can be concluded that in 1979 things could not get
much worse for the Russians in Afghanistan. They had to fight against the
Chinese, the Americans, the Arabs, the Iranians and the Pakistanis. For

14. different reasons each one of these players saw the Soviet Army in
Afghanistan as a threat.
Syria
In 2015 Russia decided to send heavy Russian military reinforcements in
Syria, in order to protect the socialist Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad.
According to the Al Monitor article, and I agree 100% with it, things are not
as tough for the Russians in Syria as they were in Afghanistan. First of all
the Russians do not plan to control the whole of Syria, but only the part
inhabited by Assad’s people i.e. the Muslim Alawites. Alawites are an off-
shoot of Shiite Islam. At the following Wikipedia map you can see Syria’s
ethno-religious composition in 1976.
With light green you can see the parts of Syria which were inhabited by
Assad’s Alawites, with pink the ones inhabited by the Kurds, with dark
green the ones inhabited by the Druze, and with orange the ones inhabited
by the Sunnis, who are the majority of the Syrian population. The mixed
and the underpopulated regions are the white regions. That’s what Syria
should look like if at some point the war is over and the country is divided in
smaller states. The Russians want to help Assad, or another Russian ally, to
stay in power in the region marked with light green. The Russians cannot do
much more than that. Therefore in Syria the Russians do not plan to control
the whole of the country as they planned to do in Afghanistan.
Map 9 The Ethno-Religious Composition of Syria in 1976

15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectarianism_and_minorities_in_the_Syrian_C
ivil_War#/media/File:Syria_Ethno-religious_composition..jpg
Moreover in Syria the Russians have neighboring countries as allies i.e. Iraq
and Iran, and also Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranians do not have exactly
the same interests with the Russians, but they fight next to the Russians
against the Islamists supported by Turkey and the Arabs of the Gulf. The
Iranians want peace, as long as they can make sure that they have access to
the Mediterranean Sea, in order to sell their oil and gas to Europe, and as
long as they block the Arab-Turkish pipelines, which can send the Arab
natural gas and oil to Europe through Turkey.

16. This is not true for Russia. Russia sells it oil and natural gas to Europe. The
optimal outcome for Russia in Syria is war, in order to block both the Iran-
Iraq-Syria and the Qatar-Turkey pipelines. Iran-Iraq-Syria is the less
damaging pipeline for Russia, but it would hurt the Russian interests too.
Anyway, the thing is that Iran and Iraq are fighting with Russia for the
moment. Moreover the Russians have China’s diplomatic support in Syria.
Another advantage for Russia in Syria is that the American interests are not
aligned with the Turkish and the Saudi ones. In Syria the Americans want to
support the Kurds. But the poor in oil and gas Kurds of Syria (YPG) are
aligned with the Kurds of Turkey (PKK), who are poor in oil and gas too.
The problem is that the Kurds of Turkey (PKK) are supported by Russia and
attack Turkey at her eastern flank (Kurdistan of Turkey). In Eastern Turkey
the American and Turkish interests are 100% aligned because the Americans
want the Turks to send to Europe the oil and natural gas of Iraqi Kurdistan,
Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan. But in Syria the American and Turkish
interests are not aligned, because the Americans prefer the Kurds who are
pro-West than the Islamists supported by Turkey and the Arabs.
Map 10 Kurdistan

17. For more details about the Kurds of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran see “The
Energy War of Kurdistan : Internal Alliances & External Conflicts”.
Moreover the Turks want to control Syria, while it not clear whether it
would be better for the Americans if the Turks or the Iranians control Syria.
The Turks have become too aggressive when it comes to their energy policy,
and they are not the reliable US ally they once were. The Turks have a close
cooperation with the Russians on the energy sector, and they also cooperate
with the Chinese on the New Silk Roads promoted by China. See “The War
for the Railways and the Motorways of the New Silk Road”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/09/22/the-war-for-the-railways-and-the-
motorways-of-the-new-silk-roads/

18. Therefore maybe it would be better for the Americans if there was an Iran-
Iraq-Syria-Europe energy axis, and a Caspian-Turkey-Europe axis, instead
of Turkey being able to control all the energy flows. This is a very difficult
geopolitical exercise for United States, since the American interests are not
perfectly aligned with the ones of their traditional allies. That’s of course a
great advantage for Russia.
Moreover the Turks and the Saudis, both of whom want to overturn Assad,
cannot cooperate smoothly, because they both claim for themselves the role
of the leader of the Sunni Caliphate. Erdogan has become for Saudi Arabia
an Islamist version of the Egyptian socialist dictator Gamal Nasser, who was
attacking Saudi Arabia. Nasser wanted to unite the Arabs in a socialist union
under his leadership. In that way Egypt would take control of the oil of the
Persian Gulf. See “The Intra-Arab War for Oil : 1950-1970”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/the-intra-arab-oil-war-1950-1970/
The Saudis are trying to form an Arab alliance with Egypt in order to stand
against Turkey and Iran. But Egypt, a Saudi ally, cannot offer too much help
in Syria, because Egypt moved closer to Russia after the Arab Spring. Egypt
was an American ally, but moved closer to Russia when the Americans
accepted the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which was supported by
Turkey, Qatar and Iran. Therefore in Syria the Russians face very weak and
complicated alliances.
At the following map you can see the TAPI pipeline with purple
(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). I include this map because the

19. TAPI pipeline is another conflict between the Americans and the Arabs of
the Gulf. The Americans want the natural gas and oil of Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan to reach the Indian Ocean, but this gas and oil would hurt the
Arab interests. The Arabs of the Gulf sell their oil and gas mainly to Asia.
Their differences in Central Asia make it even harder for the Arabs and the
Americans to cooperate in Syria.
Map 11
Finally in Syria there is not a country like Pakistan in 1979. In 1979 Pakistan
was willing to do whatever was required to combat the Soviets, because
Pakistan had nothing to gain from the Russians, and the Islamist Pakistanis
perceived the Russian Communists as a threat. This is not the case in Syria
today. Turkey, which is the strong neighbor who wants Assad to go, buys
most of her natural gas from Russia, and the Russians offer discounts to
Turkey whenever they are happy with the Turks. The Turks of course threat

20. the Russians that they will stop buying their natural gas, as you can read at
the following Stratfor article, titled “Turkey: Erdogan Threatens To End
Nuclear, Natural Gas Cooperation With Russia”, October 2015. But can the
Turks stop buying the cheap Russian natural gas as they threat they will do?
https://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/turkey-erdogan-threatens-end-
nuclear-natural-gas-cooperation-russia
Therefore even though it is not clear whether Russia can take the military
cost of her expedition in Syria, it is clear that in Syria Russia does not face
many of the difficulties she was facing in 1979 in Afghanistan. In Syria the
magnitude of the operations is much smaller than the one in Afghanistan, the
alliances that Russia has to face are much weaker, and Russia has also strong
allies. With all the above I do not mean to say that the Russian moves are the
correct ones. Only time can tell.
For the Al Monitor article see
“Vlad and Yuri: How Putin is applying the lessons of Afghanistan to Syria”,
October 2015
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/putin-follows-kgb-boss-
yuri-andropov.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish
%5D&utm_campaign=94841768f4-
October_06_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-
94841768f4-102393785