2. A very interesting article from Al Monitor, about the efforts of the Turkish
President Tayip Erdogan to unite the Muslim World and become its leader.
And about whether the leaders of the Muslim World can accept Erdogan as
their leader. See Al Monitor παρακάτω “Will Islamic world accept Turkey’s
leadership?”, April 2016.
The article refers to the recent summit of the Muslim countries in Turkey
(Organization of Islamic Cooperation OIC). Al Monitor mentions that the
socialist leader of Egypt Abdel Sisi was absent, together with the King of
Jordan. I must say that both the Egyptian socialists and the King of Jordan
are very upset with the Turkish Islamists, because they support in Egypt and
Jordan the Islamist socialist organization Muslim Brotherhood.
Recently the Jordanian King accused the Turkish President of sending
terrorists to Europe on purpose, and also said that the Europeans are afraid
of Erdogan. See Al Monitor “Are Amman-Ankara ties in crisis”?, April
2016. See also Independent “Turkey is deliberately 'unleashing' Isis
terrorists into Europe, says Jordan's King Abdullah”, March 2016. See also
the Gatestone Institute “Turkey: Muslim Brothers' Protector”, June 2015.
In the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Erdogan had the
Saudi King first at his right, and fourth to his left was the Iranian President.
Erdogan wanted to show how the relations between Saudi Arabia and
Turkey have improved, and also that in the Saudi-Iranian conflict Turkey
favors the Saudis. I must say that the relations between Turkey and Saudi
Arabia have improved after King Salman became King in January 2015,
because he accepted to relax the stance followed by his predecessor against
3. the Muslim Brotherhood. He also pledged billions of Saudi investments in
Turkey. See Al Monitor “Saudi Arabia turns to Turkey”, February 2016
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-visit-saudi-
arabia-economy-political-partnership.html
Picture 1
However the Turkish President also said that his religion is Islam, and not
Sunnitism or Shiitism, in an effort to unite Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the
main powers of Shiite and Sunni Islam respectively.
For Turkey it would be great if Iran and Saudi Arabia could reach a détente,
or even manage to cooperate. The Turks and the Qataris are hoping that if
the Saudis and the Iranians reach an agreement, it would be much easier for
them to send the oil and gas to Turkey, and from there to Europe. Turkey
wants to reduce her dependence on Russian gas, and also to send the oil and
gas of the Middle East and the Caspian Sea to Europe. That would mean
4. billions in revenues for Turkey, and also an increased geopolitical role. The
opposite would be true for Russia. The largest gas field of the world i.e. the
South Pars/North Fields, lies in the Persian Gulf, and it is shared by Iran and
Qatar. A bit to the north, in Turkmenistan, lies the second largest gas field in
the world, the Galkynysh.
Map 1South Pars/ North Fields Gas Field
A rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, would be very good for
Turkey and Qatar, but it would be a disaster for Russia, because it would
open the corridor Middle East-Turkey-Europe. If Iraq was to be included in
this kind of deal things for Russia would become even worse. With peace
between the Sunnis and the Shiites of the Middle East, it would be much
harder for the Russians to intervene in the Middle East.
But it is not as easy as it seems for the Saudis and the Iranians to reach a
détente, even though it would be a blessing for the Turkish Islamists. The
5. Turks and the Iranians have been supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in
Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and the Iranians are also supporting the Shiite
minority of Saudi Arabia too. The idea is that if the Muslim Brotherhood
takes over Saudi Arabia and Jordan, it will be much easier for Turkey to
control these countries, and it would be much easier for Iran and Saudi
Arabia to cooperate, since the Muslim Brotherhood is sponsored by Turkey
and Iran.
Iran is already an Islamic Republic, and the Turkish Islamists are closing the
media and destroying the opposition in Turkey, and they are transforming
Turkey to an Islamic republic too. If the Saudi members of the Muslim
Brotherhood were to rise in Saudi Arabia, the three main players of the
Persian Gulf would all be Islamic republics.
Map
7. The Turkish efforts to overturn the family of Saud in Saudi Arabia are
enhanced by the animosity that has been developing between Saudi Arabia
and United States after the terrorist attacks at the Twin Towers (9/11). The
Americans do not blame for the attack the then Saudi King, but all the
terrorists were Saudis, and this was definitely a Saudi attack, even though it
was also supported by Iran, Afghanistan, and maybe from Iraq too. Recently
the American courts fined Iran with 10.5 billion dollars for its support to the
Saudis who carried out the attack. See Bloomberg “Iran Told to Pay $10.5
Billion to Sept. 11 Kin, Insurers”, March 2016.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/iran-told-to-pay-10-5-
billion-to-sept-11-kin-insurers
The Congress is also thinking about investigating the role of Saudi Arabia in
the attack. See CNN “Saudis warn of economic reprisals if Congress passes
9/11 bill”, April 2016
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/16/politics/saudi-arabia-government-9-11-
congress-bill/
The Americans never accused the then government of Saudi Arabia of
organizing the 9/11 attack, but the present Saudi King, King Salman, was
funding charity organizations that have been associated with Al Qaeda. That
was of course before he became King of Saudi Arabia, and I guess it has a
lot to do with the war within the Saudi Royal family. See Foreign Policy
“King Salman’s Shady History”, January 2015
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/27/king-salmans-shady-history-saudi-
arabia-jihadi-ties/
8. I guess that after the Saudi King promised to be more relaxed towards the
Muslim Brotherhood branch of Saudi Arabia i.e. Erdogan’s friends, and all
the Saudi investments he pledged for Turkey, Turkey will relax her stance
towards the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia.
However, even if at some point the Turks and the Iranians manage to bring
the Muslim Brotherhood in power in Saudi Arabia, it won’t be a piece of
cake for an agreement to be reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Remember that before the rise of the Iranian Islamists in 1979, Iran was the
main US ally in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia was also a US ally.
However the two countries were still killing each other for their exports.
And it is not only the Saudis and the Iranians. There is also Kuwait, the
United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Syria, and everybody is looking after his
own interests.
But even if we assume that the Saudis and the Iranians reach an agreement,
in order to send oil and gas to Europe through Turkey, thus overcoming
Russia, what will happen with Asia? The Arabs and the Iranians are mainly
exporting to Asia. The only common interest they have in Asia is to block
the gas of Turkmenistan and the oil of Kazakhstan from reaching India and
the Indian Ocean. But the Iranians have a clear advantage over the Saudis
when it comes to India and China, due to the Iran-Pakistan corridor. Maybe
the Iranians and the Qataris could jointly export gas from the South
Pars/North Fields to China and India, but is there to unite Iran and Saudi
Arabia?
9. Map 2
China could attempt to sort things out for the Iranians and the Saudis,
because it is mainly China that imports oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
The United States have increased their oil and gas production from shale
rock, and they import huge quantities from Canada and Mexico, both
countries very rich in shale rock.
China could say something like “I will buy that much from you, that much
from you and you and you”, in an effort to keep everybody happy. That was
the point of the recent visits of the Chinese President to Egypt, Saudi Arabia
and Iran. See Reuters “China's Xi to visit Saudi, Iran in new diplomacy
push” January 2016.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-middleeast-idUKKCN0UT12O
See also “Can China Afford to Finish the War in the Middle East”?
10. https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/can-china-afford-to-finish-the-war-
in-the-middle-east/
I said that Iran has an advantage for Europe and Asia, and therefore I must
also say that Saudi Arabia has an advantage over Africa. But the rich
customers are in Europe and Asia, and not in Africa. Recently Egypt
returned to Saudi Arabia two islands that Saudi Arabia had surrendered to
Egypt in 1950, in order for Egypt to block the Eilat-Ashkelon oil pipeline
that was promoted by Iran and Israel, and which was constructed in 1968,
after the 1967 war between Egypt and Israel.
The Saudis will construct a bridge that will pass from these two islands, and
will for the first time connect the Arabian Peninsula with the Sinai
Peninsula. Moreover Sudan recently changed sides and from an Iranian ally
it became a Saudi ally. Eritrea and Djibouti also pledged their support to
Saudi Arabia.Iran is claiming Yemen through the current war, in order to
connect to Africa, and also to be able to block the Saudi exports to Asia. The
Saudis have constructed the Petropipeline to export from the Red Sea their
oil, which is located near the Persian Gulf. Iran threatens to block the Straits
of Hormuz in case of a war with Saudi Arabia.
Map
14. Another issue related with all the above is that if there is a Saudi-Iranian
agreement, in order to send gas and oil to Europe through Turkey, they will
deeply “hurt” the Russian economic exports to Europe. And if the Iranians
and the Saudis hurt the Russian interests, and at the same time they have
very good relations with China, there will be problems between China and
Russia. And there are already big problems between Russia and China. See
“Russia VS China”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/russia-vs-china/
Also remember that the Iranian Islamists supported the rise of the Turkish
Islamists to power, because they thought the Tukish Kemalists were too pro-
American and too pro-West. The Iranian Islamists believed that the rise of
the Turkish Islamists would enhance the Iranian-Turkish cooperation.
However we saw that the rise of the Islamists in Turkey led to the Turkish-
Iranian war in Syria. Because the priority of the Turkish Kemalist was to
keep the Kurdistan of Turkey quiet, and they were willing to sacrifice
Turkish influence in the Middle East. The current doctrine of Neo-
Ottomanism promoted by Erdogan and Davutoglu is hurting the Russian and
Iranian interests, and if these two countries are not happy with the Turkish
energy policy they will support the PKK in Turkey.
The terrorists of the PKK were traditionally supported by Syria, due to the
problematic Syrian-Turkish relations, but Syria is one thing, and Russia and
Iran are another.
15. Also remember that in the 70s the socialists of Iraq and Syria were both
Russian allies, and they wanted to become one country, in order to export
Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean Sea. That was at a time the Soviets were not
exporting oil and gas to NATO members. But in the end the Syrian and Iraqi
socialists became bitter rivals, and after the rise of the Iranian Islamists in
power, the Syrians became Iranian allies.
What I am trying to say is that the Turks might want to see a Saudi-Iranian
détente, in order to export their oil and gas to Europe, but forming alliances
is not a simple task. On the other hand a civil war in Saudi Arabia would be
perfect for Iran. Actually I think that for Iran a civil war in Saudi Arabia
would be much better than a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Also remember that the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea and West Siberia hold
approximately 2/3 of the global oil and gas reserves, and the toughest
international terrorists are running these countries i.e. see “the resource
curse”, and “American Politics in the Age of Oil”.
Map 3 Persian Gulf-Caspian Sea-West Siberia
17. Also remember that Saudi Arabia has other options too. Saudi Arabia has
the option to make a deal with Russia against Iran. Saudi Arabia consumes
internally her natural gas production, and she is not as rich in natural gas as
Iran and Qatar. Therefore Saudi Arabia is much less interested in the Qatar-
Iran-Turkey gas pipeline, and a lot more interested for her oil exports.
Therefore the Saudis have the option to make a deal with Russia, in order for
Russia to block Iran in Syria. Then Saudi Arabia and Russia can cooperate
as an oil cartel in order to increase oil prices. Therefore it is much easier for
the Saudis and the Jordanians to negotiate with the Russians in Syria, than it
is for Turkey and Qatar. See “Russia, Saudi Arabia reach consensus on oil
output freeze - Ifax cites diplomatic source”, April 2016
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-opec-saudi-russia-idUKKCN0X91QL
Also see “Vladimir Putin asked Bashar al-Assad to step down”, January
2016
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/735b4746-c01f-11e5-9fdb-
87b8d15baec2.html
A Saudi-Russian agreement except of decreasing output and increasing
prices would also mean that the Saudis would focus on their exports in Asia,
and the Russians would focus in Europe. It would also mean that Russia
would protect Saudi Arabia from Iran. Russia could even provide nuclear
weapons to Saudi Arabia, now that Pakistan is becoming a bit neutral
between Iran and Saudi Arabia, due to the Iran-Pakistan-China economic
corridor. Pakistan is the only Muslim country that is a nuclear power. Russia
18. is already cooperating with Saudi Arabia on nuclear energy. See Reuters
“Saudi Arabia, Russia sign nuclear power cooperation deal”, June 2015
http://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-russia-nuclear-
idUSL5N0Z516320150619
See also BBC “Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan”, November
2013
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24823846
See also the Financial Times “Saudi Arabia and Russia ministers agree oil
production freeze”, February 2016.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da44fb1c-d485-11e5-8887-
98e7feb46f27.html
On the other hand, Turkey too has the option to cooperate with Russia with
the Turk Stream (Russia-Black Sea-Turkey-Europe), and block Iran, in order
to become for Russia an new Ukraine and earn transit fees. But the Turks
want to buy the Russian gas in low prices and negotiate it themselves with
the potential buyers, while the Russians want to make the negotiations
themselves, and simply allow Turkey to earn transit fees, like they were
doing with Ukraine.
But let me go back to the Al Monitor article. The article also says that at the
summit of the Organization of the Islamic Council Erdogan attacked the
West, and said that the Muslim World must cooperate in order to promote its
interests, because the Westerners only care about the oil of the Muslim
World. He also said that the Europeans and the Americans make a big fuss
19. about the terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris, but they don’t care about the
terrorist attacks in Turkey. He was referring to the support of the West to the
Kurds of Syria, because the Kurds of Syria cooperate with the Kurds of the
PKK in Turkey. See also “Erdogan and Syria”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/03/28/erdogan-and-isis/
At the end the Al Monitor articles says that it is not very easy for the Muslim
World to cooperate, and it says it is doubtful whether the leaders of the
Muslim World will accept Erdogan as their leader.
Picture Turkish Imports of Natural Gas
22. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/king-of-jordan-
abdullah-says-turkey-isis-terrorists-and-unleashing-them-europe-erdogan-
a6954841.html
“Are Amman-Ankara ties in crisis”?, April 2016
6th
, 7th
Paragraph
Although Erdogan has been criticized for launching verbal tirades against regional
leaders, it has been Jordan’s monarch who has repeatedly attacked the Turkish
president. According to a leak reported March 25 in Middle East Eye, Abdullah told
US congressional officials during a January visit to Washington, “The fact that terrorists
are going to Europe is part of Turkish policy and Turkey keeps on getting a slap on the
hand, but they are let off the hook.” Asked whether the Islamic State (IS) was exporting
oil to Ankara, Abdullah responded, “Absolutely.” Abdullah’s accusation that Ankara is
working with IS likely does not sit well with Erdogan, as Turkey has suffered
several horrific attacks by IS of late.
An informed source, who requested anonymity for lack of authorization to speak with the
press, told Al-Monitor that ties between Amman and Ankara had reached a “crisis.”
Given that the king’s quotes were published right before Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu was scheduled to visit Jordan on March 27, the source wondered whether the
timing of the leak had been intentional, to try to sabotage the visit, which had required
weeks of planning.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/jordanian-monarch-
international-regional-ties-turkish.html
“Turkey: Muslim Brothers' Protector”, June 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5926/turkey-muslim-brotherhood
“Saudi Arabia extends hand to Muslim Brotherhood”, March 2016
23. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/blogs/politics/17773-saudi-arabia-
extends-hand-to-muslim-brotherhood
“Saudi Arabia and Russia ministers agree oil production freeze”, February
2016
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da44fb1c-d485-11e5-8887-
98e7feb46f27.html
“Why Saudi Arabia decided to reclaim its islands from Egypt now”
1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
, 4th
, Paragpaph
A lot of shock and disgruntlement has been expressed regarding the deal reached
between Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi following the
king's visit to Egypt.
King Salman's visit ended with him cashing in on years of Saudi funding for the Egyptian
state and economy, as well as energy subsidies, and leaving with his father’s old Red Sea
islands back under the authority of the Saudi state as well as a final agreement to build
the long-discussed but never constructed Saudi-Egypt bridge.
Many Egyptian opposition groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have complained
that Sisi has unconstitutionally ceded Egyptian territory and done so in exchange for a
“fistful of dollars”. Undoubtedly Sisi is acting in his own interests and survival as his
country plunges further into chaos and economic hardship. But the fact remains that the
islands are historically Saudi, and all that King Salman has done is take back direct
control over islands his father already possessed and were a part of his dominion during
a time that is still within the king’s own memory.
However, the question remains what the Saudis gain by reclaiming the islands now. To
answer that, we must look back to why did Saudi Arabia agreed to the leasing of the
Tiran and Sanafir islands to the Egyptians in the 1950s. This was likely in a bid to detach
itself from direct responsibility for the Palestinian cause.
11th
, 12th
, 13th
Paragraph
24. Although this is unlikely to happen right now due to Israeli fears, Saudi Arabia has
already reopened Iraqi-built pipelines to the Red Sea that it may expand in order to
mitigate the threat of the stranglehold Iran has on Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s
energy passes. It is also doing its utmost to prevent Iranian clients such as the Houthis
from controlling Yemen and threatening access to the Gulf of Aden to the south. Saudi
Arabia’s move should therefore be seen as an insurance policy to diversify its export and
trade routes.
Finally, and as a furtherance of King Salman’s repeated statements calling for greater
Arab unity in the face of shared threats, the King Salman Causeway, as it will be known,
will pass over the islands and connect the Sinai with the Arabian Peninsula, thus
bridging Africa and Asia and providing for a land route that bypasses the historical
route that traverses the Levant.
Saudi Arabia is not only seeking to increase its economic ties with the Egyptians, a
million of whom already live and work in Saudi Arabia, but it also probably sees this
bridge as a way of connecting the Arabian Maghreb with the Mashriq. Apart from the
obvious benefits of having such a land route for the annual Hajj pilgrims, there will be
increased trade and commercial opportunities across both sides of the bridge, the idea
being that with increased economic interdependence comes increased cooperation.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/why-saudi-arabia-decided-reclaim-
its-islands-egypt-now-352329237
“Saudi readies oil line to counter Iran Hormuz threat”, June 2012
1st
Paragraph
Saudi Arabia has reopened an old oil pipeline built by Iraq to bypass Gulf shipping
lanes, giving Riyadh scope to export more of its crude from Red Sea terminals should
Iran try to block the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources told Reuters.
5th
, 6th
, 7th
, 8th
Paragraph
The effects of tensions have been diverse, with Saudi Arabia's decision to widen its export
routes the latest evidence of states in the region preparing for difficulties.
25. The Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA), laid across the kingdom in the 1980s after oil
tankers were attacked in the Gulf by both sides during the Iran-Iraq war, has not carried
Iraqi crude since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Saudi Arabia confiscated the pipeline in 2001 as compensation for debts owed by
Baghdad and has used it to transport gas to power plants in the west of the country in the
last few years.
Iran threatened in January to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. and
European sanctions that target its oil revenues in an attempt to stop the nuclear
program.
10th
Paragraph
Alarmed, Saudi Arabia has now quietly reconditioned IPSA to carry crude, test pumping
along the line over the last four to five months, several sources with knowledge of the
project say.
13th
, 14th
, 15th
Paragraph
More than a third of the world's seaborne oil exports pass through the narrow Strait of
Hormuz from the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates
and Qatar. Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports are all shipped through Hormuz.
Worried about its reliance on Gulf shipping, Saudi Arabia increased its capacity in 1992
to pump oil from fields predominantly clustered in the east across the country to the Red
Sea. Capacity rose to about 5 million barrels a day through two parallel pipelines known
as the Petroline.
Saudi crude exports run as high as 8 million bpd but rising demand for its crude in Asia,
shipped out of the Gulf, and falling demand from Europe, usually sourced from Red Sea
ports, meant Petroline's pumping capacity was never fully used.
18th
, 19th
Paragraph
Until recently the Saudi government had considered the risk of such a disruption in the
Gulf too small and its western gas needs too great to switch Petroline fully back to oil.
But as tensions over Iran's nuclear program rose, it decided to put IPSA on standby to
transport more crude west in an emergency.
The United Arab Emirates has built its own Hormuz bypass pipeline, which is due to
start exporting from the Gulf of Oman next month.
26. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-hormuz-
idUSBRE85R0KT20120628
“Iraq seeks to reopen oil pipeline through Saudi Arabia”, December 2015
1st
Paragraph
Iraq is seeking to reopen its crude oil export pipeline through Saudi Arabia, shut in
1990, state newspaper Assababah reported citing an unidentified Iraqi official. "The
Iraqi oil ministry started taking steps to revive the Iraq-Saudi Arabia export pipeline, as
part of a plan to diversify its export outlets," said the Baghdad-based daily.An Iraqi oil
ministry spokesman declined to comment on the report.Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline in
1990, after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The pipeline used to carry Iraqi crude to the Saudi
terminal of Yanbu on the Red Sea.The pipeline was built in the 1980s, during the Iraq-
Iran war, to diversify Iraq's exports routes when the two countries were attacking each
other's tankers in the Gulf.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iraq-saudi-pipeline-
idUKKBN0U70NO20151224
“Saudi Arabia-Iran Rivalry In Africa: Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia Part
Ways WithTehran As Riyadh Influence Grows”, January 2016
http://www.ibtimes.com/saudi-arabia-iran-rivalry-africa-sudan-djibouti-
somalia-part-ways-tehran-riyadh-2255456
“Eritrea Says It Backs Saudi Arabia's Moves to `Combat
Terrorism”, February 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/eritrea-says-it-backs-
saudi-arabia-s-moves-to-combat-terrorism
