This document provides a summary of a lecture by Dr. Larry Smarr on technology-driven disruptions in the near future. Some of the key points discussed include: - The exponential growth of computing power and how technologies like Google, Facebook, and smartphones have scaled to reach billions of users in just a few years. - How advances in networking and high-speed optical cables are enabling new discoveries by connecting instruments, computers, and storage on a massive scale. - Examples of new technologies like remote underwater cameras, genome sequencing, and brain mapping that are generating huge amounts of data and transforming various fields. - Predictions that artificial intelligence, personalized health monitoring, and space exploration will continue to be disrupted in the coming

1. “Technology-Driven Disruptions
in the Near Future”
Village Viewpoints Lecture
Rancho Santa Fe
April 24, 2016
Dr. Larry Smarr
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and
Information Technology
Harry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD

2. Calit2 is a Framework for “Living in the Future”
of the Digital Transformation of Society
The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
Calit2’s Qualcomm Institute
@UCSD
Calit2@UCI

3. If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon,
It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…
One
Decade
www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png
From One Million to One Billion Users
In Less Than 8 Years!
www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com
DEC 2004

4. The Scale of the Web Today:
“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”
• Facebook
– One Billion Active Users
• YouTube
– 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month
• Google
– Over One Billion Searches Every Day
• Apple
– 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year
• Smartphones
– 1 Billion Active Users

5. The Global Planetary Computer
Powers These Disruptions
The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search
Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth
For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!
http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html

6. Forty Years of Computing Gravitational Waves
From Colliding Black Holes
40 Years

7. From the First Computation of Black Hole Collisions to Detection
Saw Supercomputers Increase One Billion-Fold in Speed!
1977
L. Smarr and K. Eppley
Gravitational Radiation Computed
from an Axisymmetric
Black Hole Collision
40 Years
2016
LIGO Consortium
Spiral Black Hole Collision
MegaFLOPS One Billion MegaFLOPS

8. The Data-Intensive Discovery Era Requires
High Performance Cyberinfrastructure
• Growth of Digital Data is Exponential
– “Data Tsunami”
• Shared-Internet Optimized for
Megabyte-Size Consumer Data Objects
• Need Dedicated Optical Network
for Gigabyte/Terabyte Science Data Objects
Source: SDSC

9. Creating a UC San Diego “Big Data Freeway” System
Connecting Instruments, Computers, & Storage
Phil Papadopoulos, PI
Larry Smarr co-PI
UCSD’s 30,000
Shared Internet Users
Run Over One
10,000 Megabit/sec Fiber
We Are Giving that Same
Bandwidth
to Each Big Data User

10. Next Step: The Pacific Research Platform Creates
a Regional End-to-End Science-Driven “Big Data Freeway System”
NSF CC*DNI Grant
$5M 10/2015-10/2020
PI: Larry Smarr, UC San Diego Calit2
Bringing the West Coast
Big Data Instruments,
Computers, and Storage
Into One Room

11. Dan Cayan
USGS Water Resources Discipline
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues
NCAR Upgrading to 10Gbps Link from Wyoming and Boulder to CENIC/PRP
Sponsors:
California Energy Commission
NOAA RISA program
California DWR, DOE, NSF
Planning for climate change in California
substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability
UCSD Campus Climate Researchers Need to Download
Results from NCAR Remote Supercomputer Simulations
to Make Regional Climate Change Forecasts

12. average summer
afternoon temperature
average summer
afternoon temperature
Downscaling Supercomputer Climate Simulations
To Provide High Res Predictions for California Over Next 50 Years
12
Source: Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger

13. Next Generation Telescopes
Will Integrate Fiber Optics and Supercomputers
On-Line in Five Years,
Tracks ~40B Objects,
Creates 10M Alerts/Night
Within 1 Minute of Observing
2x40Gbps
NCSA Supercomputer

14. Pacific
City
Neptune
Canada
45°N
47°30’N
130°W 127°30’W
N
Seattle
Portland
Axial Volcano
NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has Funded
Fiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington
San Diego
Sea Bottom
Electro-optical Cable:
8,000 Volts
10 Gbps Optics
Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash

15. Being There - Remote Live High Definition Video
of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents
http://novae.ocean.washington.edu/story/Ashes_CAMHD_Live
Mushroom Hydrothermal Vent
on Axial Seamount
1 Mile Below Sea Level
Picture Created
From 40 HD Frames
14 Minutes Live Video
On-Line Every 3 Hours
15 feet
Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash

16. Cancer Genomics Hub (UCSC) is Housed in SDSC:
Large Data Flows to End Users at UCSC, UCB, UCSF, …
1G
8G
Data Source: David Haussler,
Brad Smith, UCSC
15G
Jan 2016
Cancer Genomics Hub Users are Downloading 30,000 TB per Year
GE’s Industrial Internet Generates 10,000 TB per Day!
30,000 TB
Per Year

17. Example: From One to a Billion Data Points Defining Me -
The Exponential Rise in Body Data in Just One Decade
Billion: My Full DNA,
MRI/CT Images
Million: My DNA SNPs,
Zeo, FitBit
Hundred: My Blood VariablesOne:
My WeightWeight
Blood
Variables
SNPs
Microbial Genome

18. Wireless Monitoring
Produced Time Series That Helped Me Improve My Health
Since Starting November 3, 2011
Total Distance Tracked 5495 miles = Round Trip San Diego to Bangor, ME
Total Vertical Distance Climbed 176,560 ft. = 6x Mt. Everest
My Resting
Heartrate Fell
Elliptical
Walking
Sunday January 17, 2016
137
42

19. I Decided to Track My Internal Biomarkers
To Understand My Body’s Dynamics
My Quarterly Blood DrawCalit2 64 Megapixel VROOM

20. A Vision for Healthcare
in the Coming Decades
Using this data, the planetary computer will be able
to build a computational model of your body
and compare your sensor stream with millions of others.
Besides providing early detection of internal changes
that could lead to disease,
cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches
could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle
choices, potentially staving off disease
and making health care affordable for everyone.
ESSAY
An Evolution Toward a Programmable
Universe
By LARRY SMARR
Published: December 5, 2011

21. AI is Advancing at a Amazing Pace:
Deep Learning Algorithms Working on Massive Datasets
1.5 Years!
Training on 30M Moves,
Then Playing Against Itself

22. Deep Learning Will Provide
Personalized Assistants to Each of Us
Where Personalized Coaching is Now
Where Personalized Coaching is Going
January 10, 2014

23. Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains
Reveals Complex Connectivity
Neuron
Cell Bodies
Neuronal Dendritic
Overlap Region
Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD

24. Reverse Engineering of the Brain
Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative

25. UC San Diego Creates
Center for Brain Activity Mapping
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping
From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski.
Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications
May 16, 2013

26. Should We Give Robots Autonomy?

27. This Next Decade’s Computing Transition
Will Not Be Just About Technology
"Those disposed to dismiss
an 'AI takeover' as science
fiction may think again after
reading this original and well-
argued book." —Martin Rees,
Past President, Royal Society
If our own extinction is
a likely, or even possible,
outcome of our
technological development,
shouldn't we proceed with
great caution? – Bill Joy
Success in creating AI would be
the biggest event in human
history. Unfortunately, it might
also be the last, unless we learn
how to avoid the risks.
– Steven Hawking

28. One of the Most Important Arenas
For Development and Utilization of Robot Intelligence is Space Exploration

29. NASA’s Historic Era of Observation
of the Solar System and Beyond

30. NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate
Earth, Moon, and Mars by 2035

31. The Shuttle Program Was Primarily Used to Build
The International Space Station
Continuous Human Occupation
Since November 2000
My Photo of the Last Shuttle Launch
Atlantis - July 8, 2011
135 Shuttle Missions
Over 11 Years

32. American Human Access to Space
Has Been Entirely Dependent on Russian Launches Since July 2011
Soyuz Launch TMA-05 on July 15, 2012
from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan
Delivering U.S., Japanese, and Russian Astronauts
to ISS Expedition 32
Soyuz Capsule TMA-15
Landing in Kazakhstan on June 11, 2015
Returning U.S., Italian, and Russian Astronauts
from ISS Expedition 42

33. Commercial Cargo Launches to Resupply ISS
are a Reality Today
Orbital Sciences Cygnus
4 Successful, 1 Failure
Since Dec. 20, 2013
SpaceX’s Dragon
7 Successful, 1 Failure
Since Oct. 8, 2012

34. SpaceX Manufacturing Facility is in Hawthorne, CA
One Million Square Feet!

35. Reuse of First Stage is Key to Bringing Costs Down
for Space Launching
Space X Failed Landing
on Ocean Barge
Jan 10, 2015
Space X Successful Landing
at Cape Canaveral
Dec 21, 2015
Space X Successful Landing
on Ocean Barge
April 8, 2016

36. SpaceX’s Dragon Will
Carry Crew to Orbit Next Year
Garrett Reisman,
SpaceX Director of Crew Operations
Pad Abort Test
May 6, 2015

37. A Manned Boeing CST-100 Is Scheduled to Launch Next Year
To Send Crew to ISS as well as Bigelow Inflatable Habitats
Image credit: Boeing

38. “First flights to Mars? We're hoping to do that in around 2025 ...
nine years from now or thereabouts.” –Elon Musk, 2016

39. A U.S. Public/Private Partnership is Birthing an
Interplanetary Industrial Sector
Backed by James Cameron, Larry Page, Peter Diamandis, Richard Branson, et al.