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Technology: The next 15 years
The presentation by Chris Chirgwin discusses the rapid advancements in technology, highlighting the rise of mobile internet usage and the impact of Moore's Law on computing. It emphasizes the potential of 3D printing and artificial intelligence, forecasting significant changes in various industries and personal life. However, it also raises concerns about the associated risks, including security vulnerabilities and socio-economic disparity due to technological progress.
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Technology: The next 15 years
- 1. Technology: The Next 15Years Presented by Chris Chirgwin CEO, Lanspeed
- 2. The Scope ofTechnology Today 1.25 billion active users on Facebook each month, spending an average of 21 minutes per day Average U.S. adult spends 5 hours and 46 minutes on computing devices per day 50% of all Internet users are in the Asia region Every Second
- 3. Broadband Trends Moremobile (smartphone) users than desktop/tablet users for accessing Internet. The Central Coast receives a “D” grade for broadband.
- 4. Moore’s Law “the numberof transistors on an integrated circuit have been doubling roughly every 18 to 24 months.” “We won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress” Ray Kurzweil Author, entrepreneur, futurist and inventor In just 40 years, the technology experienced a 100 billion-fold improvement, right on schedule for Moore's Law. 2012 7.1 billion transistors, a gate length of 28 nanometers. Cost .0000001 per transistor. 1958 First circuit consisted of 2 transistors. 54 Years
- 5. We now havethe ability to sequence a full human genome for under $1,000. The technology is developing at 3x the rate of Moore’s Law.
- 6. 3D Printing Youcan 3D print just about anything these days from 300 different materials... Plastics, metals, concrete, chocolates, human cells... 3D Printing will become mainstream in the next few years – you will be able to print replacement parts for appliances, create your own jewelry, replace lost keys, etc. 3D printing technologies will create far more disruption than it is being credited with, and we’ve barely begun to scratch the surface of what it’s capabilities will be.
- 7. Artificial Intelligence Weare still in the early days of artificial intelligence. Tens of billions of capital have being poured into an AI “arms race” over the last decade. One fun recent example is Tesla’s “autopilot” software upgrade that just came out – their AI can drive you autonomously on the highway.
- 8. Advancements in Materials& Computing
- 9.
- 10. Kurzweil’s Predictions Self-drivingcars will take over and humans won’t be allowed to drive on highways Humans will become hybrids in the 2030’s with brains connecting directly to the cloud Nanobots will become smarter than current medical technology by 2020’s
- 11. Future of Technology "AsI wrote starting 20 years ago, technology is a double-edged sword," he said. "Fire kept us warm and cooked our food but also burnt down our houses. Every technology has had its promise and peril.” Ray Kurzweil "Most of the threats we face come from the progress we've made in science and technology. We're not going to stop making progress, or reverse it, so we must recognize the dangers and control them.” Stephen Hawking
- 12. Security Vulnerabilities Cybercrime / Cyberterrorism Loss of Privacy Over-Reliance on Technology Artificial Intelligence Automation / Robots Genetic Engineering Socio-Economic Disparity Technological Threats in the next 15 years
- 13.
Editor's Notes
- #2 Thank you and Brief Introduction. CEO of Lanspeed. IT consultant for many cities, schools, businesses in region. Full time in Tech since 1990’s. Focus will be on Computer Technology, only briefly touching on other industries where technology is having a major impact. Looking at the future of technology is a passion of mine. Technology is a double-edge sword. It has been immensely beneficial in many areas of society and our individual lives, however, it has also brought some negative implications for humanity. In my opinion, technology reflects human nature – much good can come from it but it can also cause harm. We’ll spend the majority of our time looking at advancements made in computing technology and what the next 15 years may bring.
- #3 The scope of technology has exploded over the past 10 years. Nearly half of the humans on the planet are connected to the Internet. The average US adult spends 11 hours a day in front of a screen when you include television The magnitude of technology’s reach is hard to fathom and the affects on our society and planet have been enormous over a very short period of time. We are living in an era in history that will be deemed the Technology Revolution, just like the Industrial Revolution My kids have only known life with the Internet – my generation is the bridge having lived in both.
- #4 The Internet functions because of millions of miles of connectivity, primarily via wire and wireless technologies. Fiber optics are the backbone of our connectivity. High speed broadband has the same importance today as the development of freeways in the previous century. Every city I consult with is exploring how they can bring more connectivity to their constituents. Internet connectivity to homes & businesses will be reaching 1 terabit speeds by 2030.
- #5 This slide is a great example of the phenomenal growth in computing technology. Technological advancements will only multiply even more rapidly over the next 40 years. Google’s new Quantum Computer is 100 times faster than today’s fastest computer.
- #6 Although there are rapid advancements in computing technology, the advancements being made in genetics is advancing even more rapidly.
- #7 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers have just used "bio-ink" to 3D print live blood vessels. Students at Washington University 3D printed a robotic arm for about $200. Traditional robotic limbs can run $50,000 to $70,000, and they need to be replaced as children grow. Entire homes have been made with 3D printing in just a few days.
- #8 We are already beginning to see large displacements of certain jobs to automation and robots. 47% of all jobs in 10 years will no longer need humans. 1 in every 4 jobs in 2020 will be a tech job. Androids will become mainstream in the 2020’s. The example above is an android made by Toshiba in 2014 that talks and moves like a human. We will interact in a virtual world that will be almost lifelike by 2030.
- #9 Boeing has announced a revolutionary new material called microlattice that is the lightest metal ever made. It's incredibly strong, but because it's 99.99 percent air, it balances neatly on top of a dandelion. Google's new Quantum Computer is 100 Million Times Faster Than a Normal Computer. The U.S. military has a drone the size of a mosquito that can take video, record audio and even take DNA samples.
- #10 Ray Kurzweil is arguably the leading futurist when it comes to technology. He has an 86% accuracy rate on his predictions since the 1990’s. As reported, "of the 147 predictions that Kurzweil has made since the 1990's, fully 115 of them have turned out to be correct, and another 12 have turned out to be "essentially correct" (off by a year or two), giving his predictions a stunning 86% accuracy rate.“ He has received 20 honorary doctorates, has been awarded honors from three U.S. presidents, and has authored 7 books (5 of which have been national bestsellers).
- #11 Kurweil has dozens of future predictions, I have listed 3 of the most interesting ones on this slide. In the next 10 years, self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people won’t be allowed to drive on highways. Kurzweil predicts that humans will become hybrids in the 2030s. That means our brains will be able to connect directly to the cloud, where there will be thousands of computers, and those computers will augment our existing intelligence. He said the brain will connect via nanobots -- tiny robots made from DNA strands. By the late 2020’s, many diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology.
- #12 I am an optimist and believe that the majority of technological advancements are beneficial to humanity. However, I am also a realist and know that technology when developed for malicious purposes can be detrimental to mankind and our society. The leading technologists of our day (including Elon Musk of Tesla and Sergey Brin of Google) recognize this and have urged caution and expressed their concerns. I have real concerns about our over-reliance on technology and a reactive approach to security. Experts have been warning our country for years of the risks that are out there. It would not take much for our power grid, communications and technology to be rendered completely useless. One EMP detonation 100 miles over the U.S. could destroy much of our electronics. There are a handful of critical “hubs” on the Internet that if one or more got destroyed, much of the country would be unable to communicate. Cybercrime is a multi-billion dollar a year industry and it’s only growing. Some of you probably had to deal with the Cryptolocker virus in the past year.
- #13 The list below are just some of the threats that technology can have on our society in the next 15 years. I believe we will experience significant problems with all of these, that we as a society will have to deal with. Our children will be facing a world that is MUCH different than what we have had to face.
- #14 We are living in an age of significant change – possibly more so than ever before. Every two years, the amount of data produced globally is doubling! We need visionary leadership at the national level, the local level, in our schools, and businesses. I encourage all of the cities, schools and businesses that I spend time with to look ahead, set a clear direction, establish smart goals, be accountable, be resourceful and smart. Our world and our community is changing, but I believe it can change for the better with the right leaders, bright ideas, and a willingness to adapt.