The technology life cycle follows an S-curve pattern with four stages: 1) the new invention period of slow growth through experimentation, 2) a technology improvement period of rapid and sustained growth, 3) a mature technology period where progress slows as limits are approached, and 4) an aging period where the technology becomes obsolete or is replaced. This S-curve can help predict technological development and forecast changes. The market typically sees slow growth during development, rapid growth as the technology is applied, maturity as progress plateaus, substitution as new technologies emerge, and decline as the technology becomes obsolete.

1. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
MOT

2. The S curve of technological
process
TechnologyPerformanceparameter
Time
Embryonic
growth
maturity
ageing
The new
invention
period
Technology
improvement period
Physical limit

3. contd
• Stages:
• 1. the new invention period:
• -slow initial growth
• -experimentations are carried out
• 2.Technology improvement period – characterized by rapid and
sustained growth.
• 3. Mature Technology period- upper limit of technology is
approached
• Progress in performance is slowed down
• Technology reaches its natural limits
• Eg vacuum tube technology/ electric bulb- filament

4. contd
• When a technology reaches its natural
limits it becomes a mature technology
vulnerable to substitution or obselence.
• S curve- also helpful in technological
forecasting

5. Changes in natural limits of
technology
A
A’
Limit of A
Limit of B
B

6. MARKET GROWTH AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF
THE TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
A B C D
E F
TIME
MARKETVOLUME

7. CONTD
• A- Technology development
• B- Application launch
• C- Application growth
• D-Mature Technology
• E- Technology Substitution
• F-Technology obsolescence