Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that OPR had been
“front-loaded”. Zeti indicated that, there will not be any further OPR rate cuts
provided in improvement is seen in the second half of the year and further
improvement going into next year. Zeti expects the global and domestic
economies to improve by the second half of the year. (Source: The Edge Daily)
Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08. Axiata failed to achieve its
FY08 KPIs targets, citing increasing competition in the mobile market of Axiata’s
operating countries, currency volatility, liquidity shortages, and fluctuation of
interest rates. Axiata did not meet its target for revenue growth, EBITDA margin
and ROE for FY08. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with Sime Darby
Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner. Ramunia and Sime Darby
clarified in an announcement that, they are in engaged in a discussion on a
potential corporate transaction as part of Ramunia’s search for a strategic
partner. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam. Datuk Seri
Tony Fernandes is keen on setting up affiliate airlines in the two countries. He
envisioned all AirAsia affiliates in Asean to become a single entity, ultimately.
(Source: Business Times)
G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks' toxic
assets. In warning that the world economy could still take another turn for the
worse, the finance ministers and central bankers who met over the weekend in
Washington singled out the banks' impaired balance sheets as the biggest threat
to a sustainable recovery. Their remarks indicate it will be critical to follow
through on commitments to deploy taxpayer funds to buy distressed assets,
even as some gauges of financial stress ease. U.S. officials aim to finance the
purchases of as much as USD 1tr of loans and securities, and Germany is
pushing a plan to remove EUR 853b (USD 1.1tr) from balance sheets. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline. The outbreak of
deadly swine flu may curtail tourism and compel shoppers to stay home, further
damaging an economy already reeling because of a U.S. recession that has cut
demand for exports. President Felipe Calderon closed Mexico City schools until
May 6, shut public events and declared emergency powers to order quarantines
to fight the flu, which has killed as many as 103 in Mexico. Finance Minister
Agustin Carstens said there’s “high potential” the outbreak will disrupt the
economy, with hotels and restaurants being the hardest hit. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third month in May
as slower inflation boosted household purchasing power and the recession
showed first signs of easing. GfK AG’s confidence index for, based on a survey
of about 2,000 people, was unchanged from April at 2.5%, the Nurembergbased
market-research company said in a statement. German business and
investor confidence increased this month on hopes that interest-rate cuts and
government stimulus packages will lift the economy out of its worst recession in
over six decades. Germany’s leading economic institutes predict the economy,
Europe’s largest, will shrink by 6% YoY this year. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses. Ireland’s government is
preparing to buy EUR 90b (USD 119b) of property loans in a bid to stave off
nationalizing its biggest lenders. It may still end up with majority control of the
country’s banks. Companies led by Allied Irish Banks Plc may get 25% less than
the face value of their loans under the proposal from the National Asset
Management Agency, according to the median estimate of seven analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg News. That implies losses of EUR 22.5b. Analyst
estimates for the discount ranged from 15% to 30%. (Source: Bloomberg
Uni-Asia Finance Corporation reported financial results for the third quarter of FY2012. Total income increased 48% to $21.6 million compared to the same period last year, driven by growth across all business segments. Net profit was $2.1 million, up significantly from a loss last year. For the nine months, total income grew 57% to $59.6 million and net profit was $3.8 million, reversing last year's loss. The balance sheet remains healthy with a slight increase in net assets. Going forward, management expects continued earnings growth as business conditions improve across shipping, hotels, and investment management.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien -Vina 2010 (vnl)Viết Nội Dung
VNL's annual report for 2010 showed:
1) VNL achieved a 3.2% increase in NAV per share to $1.36, reversing losses from the previous year, driven by sales of residential units.
2) Vietnam's real estate market saw strong performance in low and mid-range residential sectors and improved hospitality, while office and retail remained slow.
3) The Chairman notes investors remain concerned about Vietnam's macro issues and want clarity on performance and the manager's ability to realize proceeds and return value to shareholders.
The document provides an overview of Macquarie Infrastructure Company's fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings conference call. It discusses positive cash generation trends, with proportionately combined free cash flow of $145.1 million for 2011. Segment performance is reviewed for IMTT, The Gas Company, District Energy, and Atlantic Aviation. Guidance is also provided for expected 2012 performance at each business. Debt profiles and compliance with debt covenants are summarized.
- Indian markets closed flat on January 23 as investors took a cautious approach ahead of the RBI's monetary policy review. The Sensex rose 0.08% while the Nifty fell 0.05%.
- Asian shares advanced modestly led by energy firms higher after the EU agreed to embargo Iranian oil exports. The report expects a positive but cautious opening for Indian markets with investors watching the RBI meeting.
- Key corporate developments include telecom operators meeting the telecom minister seeking clarity on spectrum pricing, and industry group FICCI forecasting slower Indian economic growth of 6.9% for this fiscal year compared to 8.5% last year.
The document provides a disclaimer and forward-looking statements regarding a presentation by Banco Santander Totta, S.A. and Banco Santander, S.A. It cautions that the presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. It also states that the information in the presentation should be read in conjunction with other public disclosures and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
Bajaj Electricals reported a 19.3% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to Rs. 784 crore, slightly ahead of estimates. Revenue growth was driven primarily by the consumer durables division which saw 35.6% growth. However, net profit declined 21.1% to Rs. 37 crore due to additional taxes and a loan write-off. The company maintained a strong order backlog of Rs. 932 crore. While growth outlook remains positive, the analyst maintains a neutral rating given the recent run-up in stock price and expects the stock to trade around 10-12 times estimated earnings.
Bajaj Auto reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. The company's top line was marginally above expectations, driven by a 70% year-over-year increase in total volumes. EBITDA margins expanded slightly by 50 basis points year-over-year to 20%. Net profit increased 101% year-over-year to Rs590 crore, beating estimates, aided by higher other income and improved operating leverage. Overall, robust volume growth and margin expansion led to better-than-expected financial performance during the quarter.
The document provides an analysis of Consolidated Construction Consortium's (CCCL) 4QFY2010 results and outlook. Some key points:
- CCCL reported 33.2% revenue growth for 4QFY2010 inline with estimates, but order inflow for FY2010 was below expectations at Rs2,166cr.
- The company's current order book stands at Rs3,392cr, providing 1.4x revenue visibility for FY2011, which is lower than peers.
- The analyst expects 19.2% revenue CAGR for CCCL over FY2010-2012 on the back of its order book and recovery in private capex.
- C
Uni-Asia Finance Corporation reported financial results for the third quarter of FY2012. Total income increased 48% to $21.6 million compared to the same period last year, driven by growth across all business segments. Net profit was $2.1 million, up significantly from a loss last year. For the nine months, total income grew 57% to $59.6 million and net profit was $3.8 million, reversing last year's loss. The balance sheet remains healthy with a slight increase in net assets. Going forward, management expects continued earnings growth as business conditions improve across shipping, hotels, and investment management.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien -Vina 2010 (vnl)Viết Nội Dung
VNL's annual report for 2010 showed:
1) VNL achieved a 3.2% increase in NAV per share to $1.36, reversing losses from the previous year, driven by sales of residential units.
2) Vietnam's real estate market saw strong performance in low and mid-range residential sectors and improved hospitality, while office and retail remained slow.
3) The Chairman notes investors remain concerned about Vietnam's macro issues and want clarity on performance and the manager's ability to realize proceeds and return value to shareholders.
The document provides an overview of Macquarie Infrastructure Company's fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings conference call. It discusses positive cash generation trends, with proportionately combined free cash flow of $145.1 million for 2011. Segment performance is reviewed for IMTT, The Gas Company, District Energy, and Atlantic Aviation. Guidance is also provided for expected 2012 performance at each business. Debt profiles and compliance with debt covenants are summarized.
- Indian markets closed flat on January 23 as investors took a cautious approach ahead of the RBI's monetary policy review. The Sensex rose 0.08% while the Nifty fell 0.05%.
- Asian shares advanced modestly led by energy firms higher after the EU agreed to embargo Iranian oil exports. The report expects a positive but cautious opening for Indian markets with investors watching the RBI meeting.
- Key corporate developments include telecom operators meeting the telecom minister seeking clarity on spectrum pricing, and industry group FICCI forecasting slower Indian economic growth of 6.9% for this fiscal year compared to 8.5% last year.
The document provides a disclaimer and forward-looking statements regarding a presentation by Banco Santander Totta, S.A. and Banco Santander, S.A. It cautions that the presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. It also states that the information in the presentation should be read in conjunction with other public disclosures and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
Bajaj Electricals reported a 19.3% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to Rs. 784 crore, slightly ahead of estimates. Revenue growth was driven primarily by the consumer durables division which saw 35.6% growth. However, net profit declined 21.1% to Rs. 37 crore due to additional taxes and a loan write-off. The company maintained a strong order backlog of Rs. 932 crore. While growth outlook remains positive, the analyst maintains a neutral rating given the recent run-up in stock price and expects the stock to trade around 10-12 times estimated earnings.
Bajaj Auto reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. The company's top line was marginally above expectations, driven by a 70% year-over-year increase in total volumes. EBITDA margins expanded slightly by 50 basis points year-over-year to 20%. Net profit increased 101% year-over-year to Rs590 crore, beating estimates, aided by higher other income and improved operating leverage. Overall, robust volume growth and margin expansion led to better-than-expected financial performance during the quarter.
The document provides an analysis of Consolidated Construction Consortium's (CCCL) 4QFY2010 results and outlook. Some key points:
- CCCL reported 33.2% revenue growth for 4QFY2010 inline with estimates, but order inflow for FY2010 was below expectations at Rs2,166cr.
- The company's current order book stands at Rs3,392cr, providing 1.4x revenue visibility for FY2011, which is lower than peers.
- The analyst expects 19.2% revenue CAGR for CCCL over FY2010-2012 on the back of its order book and recovery in private capex.
- C
Future Capital Holdings (FCH) is a financial services provider in India with over Rs. 7.57 billion in net worth that aims to leverage its parent company Pantaloon Retail's large retail presence. FCH has brought on V. Vaidyanathan, a highly experienced banking executive, as its new Vice Chairman and Managing Director to lead its expansion into consumer and wholesale financing businesses. The company intends to significantly grow its balance sheet and deliver returns to shareholders by capitalizing on the large untapped market opportunities in India's growing financial sector.
Infosys reported strong revenue growth of 12.1% quarter-over-quarter for 2QFY2011, driven by persistent volume growth of 7.2% and better business mix. Operating margins rebounded to 33.3% from cost efficiencies. The company revised its FY2011 revenue guidance upwards to 24-25% growth and EPS growth to 10.4-12.2% in US dollar terms. Broad-based growth was seen across industries like retail, BFSI, and manufacturing as well as geographies like Europe and the US. Hiring continued to be strong though utilisation improved.
Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) reported net sales of Rs.508 crore for 1QFY2011, in line with expectations. Operating margins of 8.3% and net profits of Rs.18.8 crore were also as expected. Order inflows grew 152% year-over-year to Rs.1,706 crore, indicating a revival in commercial and infrastructure segments. CCCL maintains an order backlog of Rs.4,527 crore, providing visibility for the next few years. While margins and profits met estimates this quarter, analysts maintain an 'Accumulate' rating given strong order backlog and expected 20% earnings growth over FY2010-12.
Jyoti Structures reported a 20.3% year-over-year growth in net profit to Rs. 25 crores for the fourth quarter of FY2010, slightly below estimates. Operating margins expanded more than expected by 235 basis points to 12.8% due to lower raw material costs. For the full year, net profit grew 15.3% to Rs. 92 crores on sales of Rs. 2,006 crores. The company maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 215, citing the large investments planned for power transmission and the company's position as a top player in the industry.
Mphasis reported 4.8% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth to Rs. 1,279 crore for 3QFY2010. The company saw mixed performance, with strong volume growth in application and ITO segments, but steep pricing cuts of 9.6% in applications. Margins declined slightly due to pricing changes and salary hikes, but were supported by restructuring in BPO and cost optimization in ITO. Revenue was driven by financial services, technology, and healthcare verticals, while telecom declined due to client issues. The company added 22 new clients spanning industries and saw improved wallet share with existing clients.
- Infosys reported disappointing quarterly results with revenues and margins declining year-over-year
- The company lowered its revenue guidance for FY2013 to 8-10% growth due to budget cuts in developed markets and challenges in Europe
- Operating margins declined due to currency losses, pricing pressures, and lower utilization rates
- The analyst recommends selling the stock and expects further downside due to macroeconomic headwinds facing the IT industry
1) The document provides an analysis of the market strategy and top investment picks for May 2010. It discusses the recovery of growth rates in various sectors to historical levels based on Q4 results.
2) The portfolio focuses on banking, infrastructure, and several bottom-up stock opportunities. Large cap picks discussed include Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, and SBI. Mid/small cap opportunities highlighted are in infrastructure, auto ancillary, IT, and pharma.
3) A Sensex target of 21,000 by March 2011 is provided based on an estimated 8.5-9% GDP growth driving a 21% CAGR in Sensex earnings and assigning a
Indian markets edged higher, closing flat with a positive bias after choppy trading. Gains in metal, auto and bank stocks were offset by losses in capital goods, IT and FMCG. Asian stocks fell modestly on credit rating downgrades of eurozone nations by Moody's. The daily session may see volatility ahead of monthly Indian inflation data release.
ICICI Bank reported a 16.8% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, which was in line with analyst estimates. While advances increased 1.8% quarter-over-quarter, they declined 6.9% year-over-year due to repayments in retail and short-term corporate loans. Non-performing assets stabilized with a declining trend in retail loan slippages. The bank maintained a strong capital adequacy ratio of 20.2% with a substantial Tier-1 component of 14.0%, positioning it well for growth.
Dena Bank reported net profit growth of 23.3% for the fourth quarter of 2010, ahead of estimates, driven by higher-than-expected net interest margins and higher non-interest income from recoveries. The bank's asset quality remained stable in the quarter and it expects capital infusion of Rs600 crore in the first quarter of 2011. The analyst maintains a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs98, citing expected advances growth of 17% and earnings growth of 16% over the next few years.
- The Indian markets extended losses to the second day and closed lower on Friday due to concerns over a slowdown in the economy after the finance ministry cut growth forecasts.
- All sectoral indices closed in negative territory with capital goods, auto and power stocks being major losers. FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs. 2.48 billion while domestic investors purchased equity worth Rs. 1.15 billion.
- Asian markets rose on Monday with exporters and technology firms gaining after the latest agreement by European leaders to address the debt crisis. The markets are expected to have a cautious positive opening in India following Asian cues but will watch the IIP numbers released today.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Intact Financial Corporation is Canada's largest home, auto and business insurer. It has $6.5 billion in annual premiums and is the largest insurer in several Canadian provinces. Intact has consistently outperformed the Canadian property and casualty insurance industry over the past 10 years in key metrics like combined ratio, premium growth and return on equity. The presentation outlines Intact's scale advantages, investment portfolio, growth strategies and outlook for continued industry outperformance.
Bharti Airtel reported a 2.4% year-over-year growth in net revenue for 4QFY2010 due to strong growth in its tower business and other businesses, although its mobile business revenue declined slightly. While the company's mobile subscriber base grew 35.9% year-over-year, revenue per user declined significantly due to competitive pressures. Higher selling, general and administrative expenses eroded operating margins, and combined with higher taxes and depreciation expenses, net income declined 8.2% year-over-year despite total minutes of usage growing by 12.8%. Going forward, the company expects continued strong subscriber addition but declining revenue per minute, which will impact profitability.
Reliance Communication's quarterly performance failed to meet expectations, with wireless revenue growing only 1.7% compared to the industry average. While the company surpassed 100 million subscribers, its broadband and global business segments saw declines. Profits grew 10.1% due to higher interest earned, but margins fell due to higher network and access costs. Going forward, profitability is expected to come under pressure from increased leverage for capex spending and acquiring 3G licenses.
Indian markets rose on Monday led by gains in software exporters and higher European markets. The BSE Sensex rose 0.76% while the Nifty gained 0.75%. Market breadth was lower with advances outnumbering declines. FIIs were net buyers of stocks worth Rs. 4.79 billion while domestic institutions were net sellers of Rs. 2.46 billion. Asian markets were mostly higher tracking gains on the Wall Street overnight.
Yes Bank reported a 56.3% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Net profit was Rs. 156 crore, higher than the estimated Rs. 139 crore due to lower loan loss provisions. Strong loan and deposit growth continued, with advances up 18.3% quarter-over-quarter and deposits up 12.8% quarter-over-quarter. However, branch expansion remained behind schedule. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on the stock due to high execution risks in achieving growth implied by current valuations, rising funding costs, and challenges in building a retail franchise.
JPMorgan Chase reported third quarter 2008 net income of $527 million, which included several significant items related to the Washington Mutual acquisition. Excluding merger-related items, net income was $1.167 billion. Revenue decreased 18% from the previous quarter to $16.088 billion, while credit costs increased 9% to $4.684 billion. Retail Financial Services reported net income of $247 million on total revenue of $4.875 billion, up 16% year-over-year, though credit costs increased due to higher loss estimates for home lending. The Investment Bank reported net income of $882 million on revenue of $4.035 billion, though results were impacted by $3.6 billion in
Infosys reported a 4.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in revenues to Rs. 6,198 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, backed by a 7.6% growth in volumes. However, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell by 1.8% due to annual wage hikes. Infosys revised its fiscal year 2011 revenue growth guidance upwards from 16-18% to 19-21% in rupee terms and maintained its earnings per share growth guidance of 7.2-11.5%. The growth was broad-based across services and verticals led by the banking, financial services and insurance sector.
The document provides a daily market snapshot and analysis of the Indian stock market from an institutional research perspective. It summarizes the performance of key indices, foreign institutional investor trends, and notable gainers and losers. It also recaps domestic and global economic news and events. Overall, the analyst expects the Indian market to open positively based on cues from Asian markets and recent positive domestic inflation and export data.
This document summarizes the Malaysian government's recent liberalization measures for the country's financial services sector. Key points include:
1) Allowing up to 7 new licenses for foreign commercial and Islamic banks, with 4 in 2009 and 3 in 2011 that can be wholly foreign owned.
2) Increasing the foreign equity limit for domestic insurance, takaful, and investment banks to 70% from 49% previously.
3) Providing greater operational flexibility for foreign commercial banks, such as allowing microfinance branches and new regular branches.
4) The changes follow Malaysia's gradual "managed approach" to financial sector liberalization outlined in its 2001 Financial Sector Master Plan.
- Indian markets rebounded from 1.5 week lows, with the Sensex up 2.11% and Nifty up 2.15%, tracking gains in global markets on hopes of more Greek aid and US stimulus. IT and banking stocks led the gains.
- Asian markets were weak ahead of the US Fed meeting outcome on potential new stimulus. The document expects a weak opening for Indian markets on profit-taking and cues from Asia.
- Key events included the opening of an IPO and economic developments like IMF lowering India's growth forecast and inflation expected to remain high for the next 3 months.
Future Capital Holdings (FCH) is a financial services provider in India with over Rs. 7.57 billion in net worth that aims to leverage its parent company Pantaloon Retail's large retail presence. FCH has brought on V. Vaidyanathan, a highly experienced banking executive, as its new Vice Chairman and Managing Director to lead its expansion into consumer and wholesale financing businesses. The company intends to significantly grow its balance sheet and deliver returns to shareholders by capitalizing on the large untapped market opportunities in India's growing financial sector.
Infosys reported strong revenue growth of 12.1% quarter-over-quarter for 2QFY2011, driven by persistent volume growth of 7.2% and better business mix. Operating margins rebounded to 33.3% from cost efficiencies. The company revised its FY2011 revenue guidance upwards to 24-25% growth and EPS growth to 10.4-12.2% in US dollar terms. Broad-based growth was seen across industries like retail, BFSI, and manufacturing as well as geographies like Europe and the US. Hiring continued to be strong though utilisation improved.
Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) reported net sales of Rs.508 crore for 1QFY2011, in line with expectations. Operating margins of 8.3% and net profits of Rs.18.8 crore were also as expected. Order inflows grew 152% year-over-year to Rs.1,706 crore, indicating a revival in commercial and infrastructure segments. CCCL maintains an order backlog of Rs.4,527 crore, providing visibility for the next few years. While margins and profits met estimates this quarter, analysts maintain an 'Accumulate' rating given strong order backlog and expected 20% earnings growth over FY2010-12.
Jyoti Structures reported a 20.3% year-over-year growth in net profit to Rs. 25 crores for the fourth quarter of FY2010, slightly below estimates. Operating margins expanded more than expected by 235 basis points to 12.8% due to lower raw material costs. For the full year, net profit grew 15.3% to Rs. 92 crores on sales of Rs. 2,006 crores. The company maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 215, citing the large investments planned for power transmission and the company's position as a top player in the industry.
Mphasis reported 4.8% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth to Rs. 1,279 crore for 3QFY2010. The company saw mixed performance, with strong volume growth in application and ITO segments, but steep pricing cuts of 9.6% in applications. Margins declined slightly due to pricing changes and salary hikes, but were supported by restructuring in BPO and cost optimization in ITO. Revenue was driven by financial services, technology, and healthcare verticals, while telecom declined due to client issues. The company added 22 new clients spanning industries and saw improved wallet share with existing clients.
- Infosys reported disappointing quarterly results with revenues and margins declining year-over-year
- The company lowered its revenue guidance for FY2013 to 8-10% growth due to budget cuts in developed markets and challenges in Europe
- Operating margins declined due to currency losses, pricing pressures, and lower utilization rates
- The analyst recommends selling the stock and expects further downside due to macroeconomic headwinds facing the IT industry
1) The document provides an analysis of the market strategy and top investment picks for May 2010. It discusses the recovery of growth rates in various sectors to historical levels based on Q4 results.
2) The portfolio focuses on banking, infrastructure, and several bottom-up stock opportunities. Large cap picks discussed include Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, and SBI. Mid/small cap opportunities highlighted are in infrastructure, auto ancillary, IT, and pharma.
3) A Sensex target of 21,000 by March 2011 is provided based on an estimated 8.5-9% GDP growth driving a 21% CAGR in Sensex earnings and assigning a
Indian markets edged higher, closing flat with a positive bias after choppy trading. Gains in metal, auto and bank stocks were offset by losses in capital goods, IT and FMCG. Asian stocks fell modestly on credit rating downgrades of eurozone nations by Moody's. The daily session may see volatility ahead of monthly Indian inflation data release.
ICICI Bank reported a 16.8% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, which was in line with analyst estimates. While advances increased 1.8% quarter-over-quarter, they declined 6.9% year-over-year due to repayments in retail and short-term corporate loans. Non-performing assets stabilized with a declining trend in retail loan slippages. The bank maintained a strong capital adequacy ratio of 20.2% with a substantial Tier-1 component of 14.0%, positioning it well for growth.
Dena Bank reported net profit growth of 23.3% for the fourth quarter of 2010, ahead of estimates, driven by higher-than-expected net interest margins and higher non-interest income from recoveries. The bank's asset quality remained stable in the quarter and it expects capital infusion of Rs600 crore in the first quarter of 2011. The analyst maintains a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs98, citing expected advances growth of 17% and earnings growth of 16% over the next few years.
- The Indian markets extended losses to the second day and closed lower on Friday due to concerns over a slowdown in the economy after the finance ministry cut growth forecasts.
- All sectoral indices closed in negative territory with capital goods, auto and power stocks being major losers. FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs. 2.48 billion while domestic investors purchased equity worth Rs. 1.15 billion.
- Asian markets rose on Monday with exporters and technology firms gaining after the latest agreement by European leaders to address the debt crisis. The markets are expected to have a cautious positive opening in India following Asian cues but will watch the IIP numbers released today.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Intact Financial Corporation is Canada's largest home, auto and business insurer. It has $6.5 billion in annual premiums and is the largest insurer in several Canadian provinces. Intact has consistently outperformed the Canadian property and casualty insurance industry over the past 10 years in key metrics like combined ratio, premium growth and return on equity. The presentation outlines Intact's scale advantages, investment portfolio, growth strategies and outlook for continued industry outperformance.
Bharti Airtel reported a 2.4% year-over-year growth in net revenue for 4QFY2010 due to strong growth in its tower business and other businesses, although its mobile business revenue declined slightly. While the company's mobile subscriber base grew 35.9% year-over-year, revenue per user declined significantly due to competitive pressures. Higher selling, general and administrative expenses eroded operating margins, and combined with higher taxes and depreciation expenses, net income declined 8.2% year-over-year despite total minutes of usage growing by 12.8%. Going forward, the company expects continued strong subscriber addition but declining revenue per minute, which will impact profitability.
Reliance Communication's quarterly performance failed to meet expectations, with wireless revenue growing only 1.7% compared to the industry average. While the company surpassed 100 million subscribers, its broadband and global business segments saw declines. Profits grew 10.1% due to higher interest earned, but margins fell due to higher network and access costs. Going forward, profitability is expected to come under pressure from increased leverage for capex spending and acquiring 3G licenses.
Indian markets rose on Monday led by gains in software exporters and higher European markets. The BSE Sensex rose 0.76% while the Nifty gained 0.75%. Market breadth was lower with advances outnumbering declines. FIIs were net buyers of stocks worth Rs. 4.79 billion while domestic institutions were net sellers of Rs. 2.46 billion. Asian markets were mostly higher tracking gains on the Wall Street overnight.
Yes Bank reported a 56.3% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Net profit was Rs. 156 crore, higher than the estimated Rs. 139 crore due to lower loan loss provisions. Strong loan and deposit growth continued, with advances up 18.3% quarter-over-quarter and deposits up 12.8% quarter-over-quarter. However, branch expansion remained behind schedule. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on the stock due to high execution risks in achieving growth implied by current valuations, rising funding costs, and challenges in building a retail franchise.
JPMorgan Chase reported third quarter 2008 net income of $527 million, which included several significant items related to the Washington Mutual acquisition. Excluding merger-related items, net income was $1.167 billion. Revenue decreased 18% from the previous quarter to $16.088 billion, while credit costs increased 9% to $4.684 billion. Retail Financial Services reported net income of $247 million on total revenue of $4.875 billion, up 16% year-over-year, though credit costs increased due to higher loss estimates for home lending. The Investment Bank reported net income of $882 million on revenue of $4.035 billion, though results were impacted by $3.6 billion in
Infosys reported a 4.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in revenues to Rs. 6,198 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, backed by a 7.6% growth in volumes. However, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell by 1.8% due to annual wage hikes. Infosys revised its fiscal year 2011 revenue growth guidance upwards from 16-18% to 19-21% in rupee terms and maintained its earnings per share growth guidance of 7.2-11.5%. The growth was broad-based across services and verticals led by the banking, financial services and insurance sector.
The document provides a daily market snapshot and analysis of the Indian stock market from an institutional research perspective. It summarizes the performance of key indices, foreign institutional investor trends, and notable gainers and losers. It also recaps domestic and global economic news and events. Overall, the analyst expects the Indian market to open positively based on cues from Asian markets and recent positive domestic inflation and export data.
This document summarizes the Malaysian government's recent liberalization measures for the country's financial services sector. Key points include:
1) Allowing up to 7 new licenses for foreign commercial and Islamic banks, with 4 in 2009 and 3 in 2011 that can be wholly foreign owned.
2) Increasing the foreign equity limit for domestic insurance, takaful, and investment banks to 70% from 49% previously.
3) Providing greater operational flexibility for foreign commercial banks, such as allowing microfinance branches and new regular branches.
4) The changes follow Malaysia's gradual "managed approach" to financial sector liberalization outlined in its 2001 Financial Sector Master Plan.
- Indian markets rebounded from 1.5 week lows, with the Sensex up 2.11% and Nifty up 2.15%, tracking gains in global markets on hopes of more Greek aid and US stimulus. IT and banking stocks led the gains.
- Asian markets were weak ahead of the US Fed meeting outcome on potential new stimulus. The document expects a weak opening for Indian markets on profit-taking and cues from Asia.
- Key events included the opening of an IPO and economic developments like IMF lowering India's growth forecast and inflation expected to remain high for the next 3 months.
The document summarizes the performance of Global Banking and Markets in the first half of 2008. Key points include:
- Global Banking and Markets contributed 26% of the group's pre-tax profits despite challenging market conditions.
- Strength in emerging markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America helped offset losses elsewhere.
- Writedowns were taken on subprime, credit, and leveraged loan exposures totaling $3.9 billion.
- Two of the group's structured investment vehicles, Cullinan and Asscher, had their assets transferred or sold into three securities investment conduits to provide more stable funding.
- Indian markets fell over 1.5% yesterday due to negative global sentiment and weaker-than-expected earnings from TCS and HCL. Asian markets rose early on hopes that Europe will address its debt crisis at an upcoming summit.
- Trading volume on the NSE was Rs. 8,812 crore with 367 advances and 1,090 declines. FIIs and MFs were net sellers of Rs. 2.85 billion and Rs. 1.33 billion of equities respectively.
- Key sectors like IT, real estate, capital goods and metals declined the most while ING Vysya Bank gained 3.95% after reporting higher quarterly profits. The markets are expected to open positively on indications of
The document provides a daily market snapshot and analysis of the Indian markets from February 9, 2012. It summarizes that the Indian markets edged higher amid volatility, helped by gains in software stocks like TCS and Infosys. FII buying and some progress in Greece debt talks boosted global markets. Except for pharma and banks, all indices closed positive. TCS gained on a new venture in Japan. The market breadth was strong and FII buying was seen. Asian shares slipped on uncertainty over Greece and weak Japan data. The analyst expects a weak opening for Indian markets following Asian cues as investors may book profits after recent gains.
Areva T&D India reported lower than estimated quarterly results due to pricing pressures and delayed project executions. Revenues grew 10% to Rs885 crore while EBITDA fell 24% and PAT declined 36% due to margin compression from increased competition. Order backlog grew 21% but management sees continued pricing challenges from Chinese and Korean imports. The analyst maintains a Sell rating due to expectations of further margin declines and lower return ratios in the coming years.
The document discusses the attractiveness of emerging markets like China and India for investments after recent corrections. It notes that valuations in countries like China have become compelling, with its P/E ratio of 13x and market cap to GDP ratio of 0.6x given that growth will remain higher than developed economies. It argues the European bailout package and low interest rates globally will drive funds back into high growth emerging markets like China and India. It highlights India's growth is driven more by domestic factors than external ones, and expects the economy to grow 8-9% in the coming fiscal year.
Sintex Industries reported strong revenue and profit growth of 29.0% and 54.0% respectively for the second quarter of FY2011, significantly above analyst estimates. Growth was led by the high margin monolithic segment and international subsidiaries. The working capital cycle remained stretched during the quarter due to higher billing from the monolithic segment. Management reiterated its positive outlook for domestic plastic demand and guided potential acquisition in the monolithic segment for the second half of FY2011. Analysts maintain an 'Accumulate' rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 458.
HCL Technologies reported revenue of $803.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, up 9% from the previous quarter. Revenue growth was driven by a 7.4% increase in IT services volume and a 1.6% benefit from currency fluctuations. However, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins declined 242 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 12.9% due to wage inflation, increased hiring, and higher sales and marketing expenses. While margins decreased in the short-term, management expects strong deal pipeline and margin improvement initiatives to drive revenue growth of 27% and EBITDA growth of 17% annually over the next two fiscal years.
The three sentence summary is:
Indian markets fell to their lowest close in three weeks as October inflation was worse than forecast, raising doubts about the central bank's outlook. Key sectors like real estate, metals, power and autos declined, pulling the markets lower. Global markets also declined following weakness in the US and concerns about the deepening eurozone debt crisis.
0 koon financial analysis-final editionafterrefloat
The document discusses Koon Holdings Limited, a Singapore-based investment holding company with expertise in infrastructure construction, plant and equipment rental, and precast concrete works. It provides an overview of Koon's financial performance, industry and competitors, as well as recommendations to leverage its competitive strengths such as an experienced management team and wide range of products and services to capitalize on industry opportunities like upcoming public construction projects.
HSBC reported financial results for the first half of 2008. While total operating income increased slightly, pre-tax profits decreased 28% to $10.2 billion due to a 58% rise in loan impairment charges. Net income attributable to shareholders fell 29% to $7.7 billion. However, HSBC maintained a strong capital position with tier 1 and total capital ratios of 8.8% and 11.9% respectively. The company also announced a 6% increase in its interim dividend and the completion of the sale of its regional bank network in France.
ICICI Bank reported a 16.8% year-over-year increase in net profit for 1QFY2011, which was in line with analyst estimates. While advances grew 1.8% quarter-over-quarter, they declined 6.9% year-over-year due to repayments in retail and short-term corporate loans. Non-performing assets stabilized with a decline in retail loan slippages, and the provision coverage ratio improved. Operating expenses declined 4% year-over-year, though the cost-to-income ratio rose due to muted revenue growth. The analyst maintains a buy rating on expectations of lower NPA provisions driving higher returns going forward.
- Indian markets fell for a third straight session yesterday to their lowest close in more than a week as concerns over the country's finances hit sectors sensitive to growth such as banking and IT stocks. The finance minister set modest targets for reducing the fiscal deficit and provided no major reforms, dampening sentiment.
- Asian stocks were mostly lower today with Chinese banks and property stocks declining sharply. The Indian market is expected to open weak but see some recovery as markets have declined sharply since the budget.
- In other news, gems and jewelry exports declined 39% in February while the power ministry will seek a 19% import duty on some power equipment.
1) Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, outperforming expectations with revenue growth of 6.3% over the previous quarter and 31.4% over the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
2) A key highlight was 7.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in business volumes. While profit margins declined due to wage hikes, net profit remained flat due to foreign exchange gains.
3) Management maintained a positive outlook, highlighting strong demand environment and deal pipeline, and expects pricing increases later in the fiscal year.
Nestle reported a 21% increase in revenue for the second quarter driven by 20% growth in domestic sales and 36% growth in exports. However, earnings grew at a slower 12% due to a contraction in operating margins from rising input costs and increased spending on marketing. The analyst downgraded the stock to Reduce due to concerns over margin pressure and high valuations leaving little room for negative surprises. Top-line growth was robust due to increased sales volumes and limited price increases while exports picked up on higher sales to Russia.
Be realistic, be selective. We believe this market rally has pushed
valuations to the point where growth expectations have reached
implausible levels. In fact, profits have just begun to turn down. We are
not overly bearish – our Buy list is longer than our Sell list – but we
caution that optimism over growth can disappear as quickly as it
appeared. Domestic factors, particularly political developments, may
be a positive catalyst.
Profit recession has just begun. Industrial production peaked in
January 2008, but profits only began a broad-based decline in 1Q09.
Within our coverage, 63% of the companies that have released 1Q
earnings reported lower sequential quarterly net profits. In seven
sectors, our entire coverage list suffered profit contractions. This
suggests the recession in profits has just begun.
Market valuation implies an optimistic view of growth. The market
currently trades at 15.2x 2009 earnings, up from 12x earlier this year.
This is only 10% below the previous cycle’s mid-cycle value, but today,
we face growth of -7.7% (2009) and +9.7% (2010), taking market
earnings only 1% higher by the end of 2010 from its end-2008 level.
Market growth expectations seem to be running ahead of reality.
History tells us the bear market isn’t over. Two previous bear
markets over 1981-86 and 1993-98 lasted 57 and 58 months
respectively. It has now been 17 months from the January 2008
collapse. Those bear markets had 22-38 trend reversals of 5% or more;
we have now seen 12 since January 2008. These comparisons suggest
we are, at best, half way through this bear market.
Bet on Prime Minister Najib, but Sell hope. Our top stock picks are
in the construction sector. We expect PM Najib will deliver on the fiscal
spending promises, reinvigorating the construction and building
materials sectors. Our top Sells are stocks where high hopes and
expectations have been built in; where current prices have run well
ahead of both our and consensus target prices.
Politics a positive wildcard. Beyond rapidly executed fiscal packages,
the country’s new leadership could make further changes to longstanding
policies to attract foreign investment and win back broader
support from all Malaysians. These initiatives should be positive for
equity market at least in the short-term.
Larsen and Toubro (L&T) reported much better than expected results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010. Revenues grew 28.1% year-over-year to Rs. 13,858 crore, driven by increases in several business segments. Operating margins reached a historic high of 15.1% due to cost controls. The order backlog remained robust at Rs. 1,00,239 crore. Going forward, the analyst maintains a positive view on the company given its strong order backlog, operating cash flows, and return ratios above 20%.
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. is one of the largest private banks in Brazil, with market shares of 11% in loans and 8% in deposits. In the first half of 2010, the bank reported net profits of R$3.5 billion on total assets of R$245 billion. Santander Brazil has over 3,500 branches across the country, integrating its acquisitions to create synergies and efficiencies. The bank is focused on growing its retail banking business through its Conta Integrada product.
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. presented information on its business in Brazil and Latin America. It operates in key Latin American countries like Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Puerto Rico. Latin America represents 37% of Santander's global business. In the first half of 2010, Santander's Latin American business generated $2.86 billion in net attributable income with $143 billion in loans and $156 billion in deposits.
Foreign boys not spared a 20% 1Q earnings decline. The combined net profit
of the five major foreign banks in Malaysia fell 19.7% yoy to RM824.6m in 1Q09,
worse than the 14% slide recorded by the local banks. Clearly, the foreign boys
are not spared the impact of the economic downturn, with earnings dents coming
primarily from (1) a 1.3% yoy drop in net interest income, (2) 25% slump in non-
interest income, and (3) 23% jump in loan loss provisioning (LLP).
• Foreign banks’ loan growth trailing local banks’. As expected, foreign banks
recorded slower net loan growth of 3.1% yoy in Mar 09 compared to 12% for
local banks’ domestic lending. The performance of foreign banks was pulled
down by a 6.8% contraction in Citibank’s loan base, due primarily to a drop in
property and business loans. Other major foreign banks registered single-digit
loan growth ranging from 3.3% (for UOB) to 8.7% (for OCBC).
• Higher NPL ratios and credit costs. Against the backdrop of a grim economic
climate in 1Q09, all major foreign banks saw a rise in their net NPL ratios. The
blended net NPL ratio of these five banks increased from 1.68% in Dec 08 to
1.81% in Mar 09, lower than the industry’s 2.2%. The hike in NPL ratios led to a
23% yoy surge in 1Q09 LLP.
• Better performance by local banks. In 1Q09, local banks outperformed their
foreign peers in the areas of (1) net profit – 14.2% yoy drop vs. 19.7% for foreign
banks, (2) non-interest income – down 7.1% yoy vs. 25.3% for foreign banks
despite their higher exposure to poor investment banking income, and (3) NPL
ratios – a few local banks, i.e. Maybank, Public Bank, AMMB and Alliance
managed to contain their NPL ratios while qoq rises were evident for all the
major foreign banks.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Foreign banks’ poor 1Q09 financial results reflect the
adverse operating environment. We take heart in the outperformance of the local
banks during these difficult times as it suggests that the improvements in local
banks’ operations, especially in the area of risk management, have helped them
to weather the economic downturn. On this note, we are maintaining our
NEUTRAL stance on Malaysian banks as local banks may trump our and market
expectations in countering the slowdown in loan growth and the uptick in NPLs.
Our top pick for the sector remains Public Bank.
An improved performance. While the results announced by oil & gas (O&G)
companies in Mar-May 09 were a mixed bag, they leaned towards the positive,
unlike the previous quarter. A third of the six companies in our portfolio missed our
forecasts, an improvement on 50% in 4Q08. Half of the companies broadly met our
expectations (4Q08: 17%) and one (17%) surprised on the upside (4Q08: 33%).
Since 1 May 09, the share prices of O&G stocks under our coverage have jumped
by an average 28%, reflecting the overall encouraging reporting season.
• Three trends in 1Q09. 1) Margins picked up as companies climbed the value chain:
Except for Dialog, all the companies in our O&G portfolio showed margin
improvement, with average EBIT margin rising from 14% in 4Q08 to 20% in 1Q09.
2) Late delivery remains a problem for offshore support vessel (OSV) operators: In
total, Petra Perdana and Alam missed six vessel delivery dates due to assembly
line congestion and delayed shipment of parts. 3) Petroleum retailers and refiners
bounced back: The rising crude oil price supports the selling prices of products that
are not subject to automatic pricing mechanism (APM) and refiners benefited from
inventory gains.
• Service providers stand to benefit. YTD, the oil price has jumped 56%, reflecting
factors such as 1) a weakening US dollar, which encourages speculative money to
flow into the market, and 2) an increased risk appetite among investors who
anticipate an economic recovery. As a producing country, Malaysia is poised to
benefit from the upward march of the oil price. Petronas-licensed service providers
offering works and facilities such as yards, tank terminals, offshore structures and
maintenance job stand to win the most.
• Target price increases. There are no changes to our forecasts. However, we are
raising our target prices by 11% for Dialog, Kencana, SapuraCrest and Wah Seong
to reflect our recent index target upgrade. We now apply our revised target market
P/E of 15x to the stocks, instead of 13.5x. Our target prices for Alam, Petra Perdana
and Petronas Dagangan are maintained.
• Kencana replaces Petra Perdana as top pick. YTD, Petra Perdana’s share price
has risen by a whopping 120%, making the stock an outstanding performer in our oil
& gas portfolio. While we still like the stock, we are replacing it with Kencana as our
top pick. We believe Kencana’s newsflow and order book replenishment over the
next few months will be more exciting.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector in view
of the potential re-rating catalysts of 1) M&As, and 2) more active newsflow. Also
unchanged are all our stock recommendations and earnings forecasts.
– February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on shopping trips in the U.S..– Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S., they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of the year – There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened. – Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales.– Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store, they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices.– Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
Be cautious into 3Q. 1Q09 results of the six banking stocks we cover
were generally in line, with combined net profit down 2.1% QoQ and
13.1% YoY. However, the weak 1Q09 GDP suggests growing stress in
system loans over the coming months. We remain cautious on banks’
profits, especially from 3Q09. Underweight the sector.
1Q down a sharp 13.1% YoY. Other than AMMB’s positive surprise,
results were generally in-line. The combined net profit of our banking
universe was flattish QoQ but fell a sharp 13.1% YoY on lower treasury
and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. Net interest income
expanded, but the weak equity market continued to affect brokerage
income, which contracted for the 5th to 6th consecutive quarter.
Some signs of stress. Domestic loans continued growing at most
banks. QoQ loan growth at the major banks (Maybank, CIMB Bank and
Public Bank) outpaced system growth. Some loan segments, however,
have begun showing stress. Domestic NPL saw upticks in the
consumer (mortgage, autos) and working capital segments. Net NPL
ratios continued to trend down due to the expanded loans base.
Earnings to contract. There were no major revisions in our individual
earnings forecasts except for AMMB (FY09: +16%, FY10: +7%). Our
combined net profit forecast was upgraded by a marginal 0.1% for 2009
and 0.7% for 2010. We expect sector earnings to contract 9.9% in
2009, before recovering to 6.8% growth in 2010 (previously -10.1%,
+6.1% respectively). This excludes further impairment in the value of
long-term investments, merger costs and other one-offs.
Asset quality concerns. 1Q09 GDP (-6.2% YoY, -7.7% QoQ) should
be the weakest, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we
expect economic recovery to be slow, with real GDP to return to the
3Q08 high only in 4Q10. There is a 3-6 month interval from GDP trough
to NPL peak. Hence, banks are set to report weaker profits on rising
NPLs and higher credit charges from 3Q09.
Mainly Sells. Against regional peers, the larger Malaysian banks are
pricey. The current liquidity driven market has pushed valuations up but
prospects for a strong economic recovery stay hazy. Sell into strength.
Upping CPO price forecasts. In this report card on the recent results season, we
are raising our CPO price (cif) forecasts by 18% for 2009 and 8% for 2010 to
US$710 per tonne for both years. The reasons for our upgrades are Argentina’s
lower soybean crops, the slower decline in demand growth from key consumers
and a slower-than-expected recovery in palm oil output. Our new local CPO price
forecasts are RM2,280 for 2009 and RM2,250 for 2010.
• CPO price to pull back in 3Q before recovering in 4Q. We remain positive
about CPO price until end-2Q as the replenishment of stocks will require time,
India’s import duties on edible oils remain at zero and there is concern over the
delay in plantings in US. We expect CPO price to pull back in 3Q before
recovering towards the end of the year.
• Upgrading earnings forecasts and target prices. In view of our higher CPO
price forecasts and recent changes in our rupiah assumptions, we are raising our
FY09-10 earnings forecasts for all the planters in our coverage by up to 30%.
This, along with higher target P/Es following our upgrade of regional
stockmarkets, bumps up our target prices by 3-53%. We are raising Hap Seng
Plantations and Sampoerna Agro to Neutral given their recent underperformance.
• Upgrading Malaysian plantation sector to Neutral. We are raising our rating for
the Malaysian plantation sector from Underweight to Neutral as its valuation
premium over regional peers has narrowed following its recent underperformance,
selected plantations stocks will benefit from an increase in their weightings in the
new FBM30 indices on 6 July 2009, we are more bullish on the Malaysian stock
market and foreign shareholding levels have fallen.
• Staying NEUTRAL on regional plantation sector. Despite our CPO price
upgrade, we remain NEUTRAL on the regional plantation sector as the share
prices of most planters in our universe have done well YTD, reflecting the more
upbeat CPO price outlook and expectations of a correction of CPO price in 3Q
due to seasonally higher production and potential cutbacks in demand from major
consuming countries if crop prospects improve. There is also no change to our
Overweight rating on the Singapore plantation sector and Neutral call on the
Indonesian plantation sector. For exposure to the regional plantation sector, we
continue to recommend large-cap liquid planters. Our top picks in the region are
Wilmar, Sime Darby, Indofood Agri and London Sumatra.
Welcome to the 2009 edition of
The Wealth Report, the third such collaboration
between Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank.
Over the past 12 months the economic outlook has
become even more uncertain. Most of the developed
world is now in recession, and even the emerging
economies have been forced to pause for breath. Every
commentator accepts 2009 will be tough. Our Attitudes
Survey (page 12) indicates clearly that HNWIs will look
to protect their wealth from the ravages of the
downturn with an emphasis firmly on security and
transparency rather than risk.
The tangible nature of property means it is well
placed to benefit from this shift in emphasis, and there
are signs that some mature prime property markets,
such as London and New York, have readjusted to price
levels that offer good value for purchasers. For some
emerging markets, the rollercoaster ride looks set to
continue. A full analysis of prime global markets is
included on page 26, and we recommend 10 locations
and sectors that offer potential for growth on page 23.
As property is just one aspect of wealth, we have
expanded the scope of The Wealth Report by including
an investigation into the performance of alternative
assets, from art and cars to wine (page 36), and an
assessment of the state of the philanthropy sector
(page 16). Influential thinkers, such as Alain de Botton
(page 20), also share their views on how the world will
adjust to life post credit crunch.
We hope you enjoy reading the report.
The document provides a summary and analysis of Malaysian companies' 1Q09 earnings results. Some key points:
- The results season was not as bad as feared, with fewer companies missing expectations than in previous quarters. EPS forecasts for 2009 and 2010 were surprisingly raised rather than cut.
- Six sectors disappointed expectations while two performed above. The revision ratio improved to 0.6x, indicating less negative earnings momentum.
- The worst could be over as future quarters may see more balanced results and fewer EPS cuts. However, EPS growth may not turn positive again until 3Q09.
- During the results period, the analyst raised forecasts for eight companies and lowered forecasts for 23 companies.
The majority down. 62% of our 72-stock universe suffered lower
sequential quarterly net profits, with 24% surprising on the downside.
The combined 1Q09 net profit of our research universe fell by just 3.5%
QoQ. But stripping out 5 large gainers, net profits fell a larger 13.6%
QoQ. Consumers and glove manufacturers’ defied gravity, but net
profits of virtually all stocks in nine sectors fell quarter-on-quarter.
A surprising combined result, but the devil is in the details. The
combined net profit of our research universe declined just 3.5% QoQ
despite an overwhelming 62% of companies reporting a sequential
quarterly decline. But excluding five companies, combined net profit fell
13.6% QoQ, an acceleration from previous quarters. A broad-based
earnings decline is being masked by a few companies, including some
monopolies.
Declines in nine sectors, but consumer sector unscathed. Every
stock in nine sectors, excluding monopolies Petronas Gas and KLCCP,
experienced a drop in quarterly sequential earnings. The sectors are
gaming, oil & gas, property, REITs, construction, building materials,
semi-conductors, plantations and toll roads. Consumer stocks and
glove manufacturers showed particular resilience.
An ‘energy dividend’ took effect; monopolies fared well. Lower oil
prices benefited heavy fuel users AirAsia and Tenaga. Their gains were
only partially offset by lower earnings at the oil & gas services
companies. Net profits of Telekom, Tenaga and Petronas Gas, all
effectively monopolies, improved on a quarterly basis although only
Petronas Gas raised prices in 1Q09.
The biggest disappointment and downgrade: 1Q GDP. First quarter
2009 GDP fell 6.2% YoY, against consensus expectations of a 3-4%
drop. We have revised our GDP forecasts to -3.8% in 2009 and +4.0%
YoY in 2010 (previously -1.3% and +3.5% respectively). The
government, to be ahead in the expectations game, is projecting 2009
GDP growth of -4% to -5%. The silver lining is the government is now
under greater pressure to implement its fiscal stimulus plans quickly.
A reversal of fortune ahead for construction, building materials.
Despite uniformly lower earnings this 1Q, we believe the construction
and building materials sectors are only 2-3 quarters away from
improved revenues. Share prices of stocks in these sectors will likely
be driven by newsflow from the fiscal stimulus rather than earnings.
We raise our CPO price assumption to RM2,000/t (from RM1,600/t)
on the current high price of RM2,800/t and YTD RM2,178/t average.
We do not foresee CPO prices staying at current levels beyond 2Q due
to rising 2H production and slowing exports. The present CPO price is
81-123% above its long term historical price in USD and Ringgit
equivalents. EPS forecasts are upgraded by up to more than 100% but
company valuations remain stretched. Maintain Underweight.
Recent CPO price spike unsustainable. We view the recent 40%
spike to the RM2,800/t level from an average of RM1,950/t in 1Q09 as
too fast, too furious. Traders and speculators justified the high price on
tight inventory. We think a significant price correction in 2H is imminent
as inventory is expected to build up on slowing exports and stronger 2H
production. Also, the present CPO price is 81% and 123% above its 30-
year long term historical price in USD and Ringgit equivalents of
USD430/t and RM1,257/t respectively.
Bearish 2H price outlook. CPO production, which has disappointed in
1H09 due to poor weather and tree stress, is likely to rebound strongly
in 2H. Besides production recovery, narrowing palm oil discounts
against competing oils should slow exports. A return of normal weather
in the next planting season for South America, and increased trade
protectionism by the West on palm biodiesel are some of the other
bearish fundamental factors for CPO.
Earnings forecasts upgraded. With CPO price having averaged
RM2,178/t YTD and likely to remain high in 2Q on tight supply, we raise
our CPO price assumption from RM1,600/t to RM2,000/t for 2009-11.
This results in EPS upgrades for plantation companies under our
coverage ranging from 17% to over 100% for 2009-11.
Valuations remain expensive. We rate the sector Underweight.
Valuations remain stretched, especially for IOI and KLK which trade at
20.1x and 16.9x 2010 PER. We downgrade Asiatic to Sell (from Hold)
as the stock has soared 54% YTD and is highly leveraged on CPO
price swings. Sime has been raised to Hold (from Sell). Risks to our
price view are a weaker USD, higher energy prices, and further supply
shocks due to weather anomalies.
• 1Q09 adex data point south. Although total gross adex for Jan-Mar 09 shrank
3.9%, it was better than the 20% contraction seen after the 1997-8 Asian financial
crisis. The worst performer was the newspaper segment which saw a 9% decline
compared with a 3.7% growth for TV adex. But ad volume visibility extends only 2-3
months out, leaving question marks over advertising commitments for 2H09.
• Downbeat expectations. The lacklustre adex showing in Jan-Mar 09 ties in with
the 1Q09 results reported by Media Prima and NSTP. It also confirmed the
generally bearish expectations of the media companies since the beginning of the
year, with a few being taken by surprise by the magnitude of the deceleration. Our
previous 2009 projection of an adex range of 1.1% contraction to 6% growth does
not hold and we now revise it to 6-10% adex contraction.
• Newspapers at risk. Fundamental risks could be more severe for newspaper
companies as newspaper adspend continues to take a hit from depressed GDP
data. Although there are signs of resilience in the Malay newspaper segment, this
does not mean total immunity against the potential worsening of adex volume in the
coming months. The top Malay newspaper NST’s Harian Metro is the main winner
but this is not expected to help the group much given that Harian Metro is a small
contributor.
• Indicators leading at inflection point? We concur with our economic research
team’s view that the CLI could hit the trough in Jun-Aug 09 and that the economic
recovery from the trough is likely to take at least 12 months given the severity of the
current global crisis. Advertisers should reposition their spending for a gradual
recovery from 2010. Historical trends suggest that adex in Malaysia should recover
in 1Q2010 based on a 3-6 months’ lag period.
• End-2009 a good potential entry point. We believe end-09 will be a good re-entry
point for exposure to selected media stocks as positives such as earnings visibility,
improved sentiment of advertisers, cheaper newsprint and gradual economic
recovery are likely to kick in as catalysts then. We will monitor closely the situation
on the ground and official stats but so far, adex for the months ahead appears to be
southbound. The share prices of media companies have recovered somewhat since
the start of the year and we fail to see any additional near-term re-rating catalysts.
• Staying NEUTRAL on media sector for now. In view of this, we maintain our
NEUTRAL stance on the media sector but recommend investors to switch to Astro
(Trading Buy) which has very little exposure to adex and minimal downside risks to
its Malaysian operations where the subscriber trend could turn out to be resilient.
We remain NEUTRAL on Media Prima (MPR MK), Star Publications (STAR MK)
and Media Chinese International (MCIL MK). NSTP is kept as an
UNDERPERFORM
• Palm oil stocks at 22-month low but… Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell for the fifth
straight month to a 22-month low of 1.29m tonnes at end-Apr 09 as exports and
domestic consumption exceeded domestic palm oil production.
• … at high end of expectations. Stocks fell 5.4% mom to 1.29m tonnes, which is at
the high end of market expectations ranging from 1.2m tonnes to 1.3m tonnes. The
decline in inventory is bullish for CPO price as it suggests tight palm oil supplies for
Malaysia, a key palm oil producer.
• Stock level may have hit trough in April. Our rough modelling, which assumes
the mom growth pattern for production and exports in the month of May will be
similar to the historical 3-year average growth pattern, suggests that Malaysia’s
CPO stocks could rise 5% mom to around 1.35m tonnes in May due to higher
production and lower exports.
• CPO price forecast intact. For the first four months of the year, average CPO price
fell 41% yoy to RM2,031 per tonne. This is marginally higher than our 2009 CPO
price forecast of RM1,950 per tonne due to lower-than-expected soybean harvests
from Argentina and weaker palm oil production from Malaysia and Indonesia. We
maintain our view that CPO prices will remain firm in the next few months due to
current tight supplies and potential further downgrade in Argentina soybean
harvests but are likely to trend lower in 3Q when palm oil supply improves and
demand weakens due to the higher selling prices. That said, the recent CPO price
strength has taken us by surprise due to deteriorating soybean crop prospects for
Argentina. In view of lower-than-expected yields, Oil World has cut its current-year
soybean crop estimates for Argentina by a further 1.5m tonnes to 33m tonnes last
week or a decline of 28.5% yoy. Although we are not changing our CPO price
forecasts of RM1,950 per tonne for 2009 and RM2,150 per tonne for 2010, there is
RM100-200 potential upside to our forecast for 2009 in view of the recent
downgrade of soybean supply from Argentina.
• Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our earnings forecasts for all the Malaysian planters
remain intact, along with our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the Malaysian planters due
to their expensive valuations relative to their regional peers. Potential de-rating
catalysts for the Malaysian planters are falling CPO price in 3Q, lower crude oil price
and improved weather prospects in major planting areas. Our only pick in the
Malaysian plantation sector is Sime Darby as the stock stands to benefit from the
move towards the new FBM 30 index, has the lowest P/E multiple and foreign
shareholding among the three largest big-cap planters in Malaysia and may engage
in earnings-enhancing M&As. We maintain our preference for the Singapore-listed
planters.
• Some glimmers of hope… Rays of hope are permeating the semiconductor
industry, which probably saw most of the bad news in 1QCY09. Global chip sales
improved slightly in Mar 09 with a 30.0% yoy decline compared with a 30.1% yoy
fall in Feb 09. The book-to-bill ratio has ticked up with preliminary Mar 09 numbers
hitting 0.61x, up from Feb 09’s abysmal 0.47x. Finally, utilisation rates have scraped
bottom as some production facilities have been shuttered and inventory control is
being exercised. The end-user markets appear to have troughed, with PC and
handset sales probably hitting the bottom. Furthermore, trade credit is now
normalising. That said, stabilisation does not equate to a recovery and we believe
that restocking activity as inventory runs low is the primary factor in the improving
outlook. We still expect 2009 to be a difficult year where the typical seasonal pick up
in 3Q may not materialise given the current re-stocking activities.
• …but no full-blown recovery until 2010. We argue that a true recovery will only
take root when the global economy begins to move upwards. A meaningful and
sustained recovery will only take place when consumer sentiment and spending
spring back to life and cause ASPs to start rising. We believe that a more
convincing uptrend will take hold only from 2H10 onwards.
• Global economies to start stabilising towards year-end. Our economists believe
that the world economy will feel the full impact of the global financial crisis this year.
Although the process of sorting out the financial system will take time and
resources, the cumulative effects of sizeable fiscal stimuli and aggressive monetary
easing globally will work to provide some stability. Recent global indicators are less
negative. Considering the extremely low base this year, global growth should pick
up in 2010 but will probably fall short of its long-run average growth rate of 3.7%.
• Upgrade sector to TRADING BUY. While the fundamentals for the sector remain
uncertain, we think that downside to share prices is limited as valuations are still
below trough levels. We upgrade the sector from Underperform to TRADING BUY.
Furthermore, in line with our market strategy, we think that investors’ risk appetite is
increasing and higher beta plays such as semicon should be in vogue. Investors
should start picking up semicon stocks ahead of the recovery of the sector as
historically, the share prices for both MPI and Unisem cratered 13-18 months before
the upturn of the sector. Sector catalysts include a) a sooner-than-expected revival
of end-user demand and b) a faster-than-expected economic recovery.
• Upgrade Unisem and MPI to Trading Buy. In tandem with the sector upgrade, we
upgrade MPI and Unisem from Underperform to Trading Buy. We raise our target
prices for both after cutting our discounts to their 5-year historical average by 30-
60% pts to 20-40% for Unisem and MPI respectively. We assign a lower discount to
Unisem, our top pick, as its higher liquidity and beta make it a better play on a
market rebound. Re-rating catalysts include a) qoq improvement in earnings, b)
revival of end demand and c) the higher betas on offer.
We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in 2009, in line with the projected 3%
real GDP contraction. Transactions could fall 20-30% or as much as 35-50% in the
worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian financial
crisis. However, most major developers have pushed out innovative financing
schemes to lure buyers. Response has been mixed, with good response garnered by
the likes of SP Setia (RM500m sales) and Mah Sing (RM170m sales) but lacklustre
sales for many other developers
More excitement ahead. The eventual award of the RM1.3b Pahang-
Selangor raw water transfer tunnel works on 28 Apr confirms that the
new administration sees the urgency for construction in stimulating the
economy. Langat 2 should be next in the limelight, together with the
massive Klang Valley LRT system. We expect more positive news flow
over the near-term. Continue to Overweight Construction.
Langat 2 next. Langat 2, the downstream portion of the water transfer
project, comprises a 2,180 mld treatment plant and the distribution
pipelines. The estimated RM5b construction contract was awarded in
Feb ’08 to Kumpulan Darul Ehsan, which holds 60% of Kumpulan
Perangsang Selangor (KPS). As KPS does not have a major
construction arm, we think that potential beneficiaries are Gamuda, Loh
& Loh and Taliworks, which have had working experience with, and/or
are affiliated to KPS via shareholdings.
Klang Valley LRT to follow. Local companies have been invited to
submit “expressions of interest” for the LRT extension and upgrading
works, with the government keen to see construction works start within
the next 3-4 months, according to today’s Edge. The extension works
could cost RM7b, including RM1b to buy rolling stocks. Our view is that
the project may be parcelled out and experienced contractors like IJM,
Gamuda, UEM Builders and YTL Corp may bid as turnkey contractors.
Overweight Construction. We continue to expect mid-sized projects
to lead the momentum of construction sector recovery under the fiscal
stimulus. Meanwhile, the inter-state water transfer (including Langat 2)
and Klang Valley LRT extension are also two priority projects under the
9th Malaysia Plan with works expected to start before the decade turns.
IJM, WCT and HSL remain on our Buy list. Meanwhile, Gamuda is a
strong contender for the two mega water and LRT projects. Our Hold
call on the stock is under review, with upward revision potential.
• Extended wedge formation. We were expecting the DJIA to break down from its
wedge formation last week but it continued to rise further towards the 8,300 levels
before correcting end of last week. The Index could still be in an extended wedge
formation and the breakdown the wedge support trend line at the 8,100pt would
confirm the end of this pattern.
• If we are wrong… If we are wrong, our alternative wave count shows that DJIA
could have already started its minor wave “c” up leg after completion of the wave
“b” triangle consolidation since early Apr last week (refer to chart below). This wave
count is supported by the breakout of the major resistance trend line since Nov-08.
Confirmation of this alternative wave count if DJIA breaks above 8,300pt.
• US banking stocks remains in consolidation phase. If banking stocks are
leading the market, DJIA is still in an extended wedge formation. The KBW Bank
Index has just broken down below its uptrend channel support trend line since
early-Mar. This indicates further consolidation in the immediate term for the Index.
• Crude oil uptrend is not over. We were looking for crude oil prices to break down
last week but the price has since bounced back above the US$53/barrel levels.
This has negated our preferred wave count and a likely “double zig-zag” is taking
place, targeting the US$60-70/barrel levels in 2H09.
• Channel breakout. MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) only experienced a mild
correction last week and closed strong for the week at 336. The Index just broke
out of its channel resistance trend line since Nov-08. This is a positive sign if the
Index is able to hold above this trend line over the next few weeks.
• Still expect consolidation. However, we still expect Asian equity markets to
consolidate over the next few weeks to build up a support base before charging up
in June-July. If RSI breaks out of its current consolidation range, this would likely
indicate that Asia has kick started its next up leg towards the June-Jul period.
A milestone for the sector. We take a positive view of this news as it is a significant
milestone for the water sector. The timing of the award was a slight surprise as we
had expected the recent cabinet reshuffle to result in a slight delay for the project
award following the award of the letter of intent (LOI) to the Shimizu consortium a few
months back. The water transfer project is the first mega job to be rolled out under the
9MP after the announcement of the second stimulus package in Mar 09. Our channel
checks indicate that the tunnelling job will move fairly quickly from here on and the
notification to start work should be received in a matter of days. Once site possession
is obtained, major resource mobilisation will be underway, including Shimizu’s
positioning of the tunnel boring machine (TBM) near the Titiwangsa range. We think
that actual work could start within a month, suggesting a mid-2014 timeframe for
completion of the project.
No details on scope of works. Details of the scope of works are not available. IJM’s
share of works based on its 20% stake works out to RM260m or just RM26m profit
enhancement assuming a 10% pretax margin. We are not revising our earnings
forecasts as the RM260m share of works is already part of our assumption for new
contracts for IJM. That said, the award of the project raises IJM’s profile as it is one of
the main contractors of the country’s largest water infrastructure project.
Focus will now shift to the remaining major components of the water transfer project,
i.e. the Kelau dam and the Langat 2 water treatment plant. We expect the feasibility
studies for both to be concluded sometime in early 2H09, making way for the
tendering process. We gather that the Shimizu consortium is eyeing the Kelau dam
job which has an estimated value of roughly double the tunnelling job. This suggests
that IJM’s potential share of works could be more than RM500m.
This document provides a sector update and analysis of the media industry in Malaysia. Some key points:
1) Advertising expenditure (adex) in March 2009 contracted only 1% year-over-year, a much better showing than previous months, driven by a 13% increase in TV adex.
2) However, the analyst maintains a cautious outlook due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and lack of major events in 2009 that boosted adex in 2008.
3) The analyst downgrades their recommendation on Media Prima and Star to Sell, as their share prices have risen ahead of underlying fundamentals in the weak economy. The media sector outlook is downgraded to Underweight.
The banking sector in Malaysia saw stable loan growth of 10.9% year-over-year in March 2009, driven partly by a 20-30% jump in loans to government agencies and non-bank financial institutions. However, leading loan indicators remained subdued and loan growth is expected to slow significantly to 2-3% in 2009 due to weaker economic conditions. Non-performing loan ratios continued to improve in March. The report maintains a neutral outlook on Malaysian banks, expecting them to perform better than anticipated despite the economic downturn.
BANKING Mar 09 Statistics Some ResilienceBoyboy cute
Positive signs. Loan disbursements, repayments, applications and
approvals rebounded with strong double-digit MoM growth, flattish-tolow-
teens YoY growth, and in absolute term, were back to pre-Aug/Sep
’08 levels. Absolute NPLs continued to inch lower, mainly from the
working capital segment. Nonetheless, it is early to tell whether these
are sustainable as global fundamentals remain weak.
Strong loan disbursements and repayments. Banking loans (net of
repayments) grew to RM733.9m in Mar ’09 (+0.6% MoM, +10.9% YoY)
on expansion in both household (+0.4% MoM, +8.8% YoY) and
business loans (+0.9% MoM, +9.5% YoY). The pace of disbursements
and repayments was strong (disbursements: +27.4% MoM, +9% YoY;
repayments: +15.7% MoM, +4.8% YoY), mainly for working capital.
YTD loans growth was +1% (household: +1.5%, business: +0.5%).
Forward indicators bounced MoM but still flattish YoY. Loan
applications and approvals also rebounded strongly: +24.3% MoM and
+35.3% MoM respectively. On a YoY comparison, loan applications
were up 4.7%, driven by household loan applications (+21.5%), mainly
for home purchases, which off-set lower applications from businesses
(-11%). Overall loan approvals were rather flattish YoY, with approvals
up for household loans (+12.6%) but down for business loans (-13%).
Absolute NPLs contracted further. Absolute gross NPLs continued
to inch lower, at a slightly higher pace of -3.7% MoM to RM33.6b (Feb
‘09: -0.04% MoM). On a 3-month comparison (see table in page 4),
the lower NPLs came mainly from the working capital segment,
reflecting perhaps resilient business strength. Meanwhile, net NPL ratio
was little changed at 2.24% (Feb ‘09: 2.23%).
Remain Underweight. YTD loans growth, if sustained, should lead to
the upper end of our 2-3% loans growth forecast for 2009. Our other
assumption is for absolute NPLs to expand by 50% YoY by end-2009,
leading to a projected 10% decline in combined net profit for 2009.
While loans quality was resilient in Mar ’09, we remain concerned over
rising NPLs – our analysis shows a 3-6 months interval from GDP
trough to NPL peak. The other main risk is a protracted economic
slowdown leading to rising unemployment and asset deflation.
Bank Negara announced yesterday measures for further liberalisation of the financial
sector:
Increase in foreign equity limits. The foreign equity limit for investment banks,
Islamic banks, insurance companies and takaful operators has been raised from 49%
to 70%. It is envisaged that these institutions’ business potential and growth prospects
will be enhanced by the international expertise and global networks of foreign
shareholders. However, the cap on foreign shareholdings in domestic commercial
banks remains at 30%.
New banking and Takaful licences up for grabs. New licences will be issued to
strong and world-class players in the following categories:
• In 2009, up to two new Islamic banking licences will be issued to foreign players to
establish new Islamic banks with paid-up capital of at least US$1bn.
• In 2009, up to two new commercial banking licences will be issued to foreign
players that will bring in specialised expertise.
• In 2011, up to three new commercial banking licences will be dished out to worldclass
banks that can offer significant value propositions to Malaysia.
• In 2009, up to two new family takaful licences will be made available.
Greater operational flexibility for foreign banks. Locally-incorporated foreign
commercial banks can establish up to 10 microfinance branches with immediate
effect. Further branches will be considered based on the effectiveness of these
branches in servicing microenterprises. Foreign banks will also be allowed to establish
up to four new branches in 2010 based on the distribution ratio of 1 branch in market
centres, 2 in semi-urban areas and 1 in non-urban areas.
Locally-incorporated foreign insurance companies and takaful operators are now
allowed to set up branches nationwide without restriction. The restriction against these
companies entering into bancassurance/bankatakaful arrangements with banking
institutions has been lifted.
Other liberalisation. Banks, insurance companies and takaful operators now have
greater flexibility to employ specialist expatriates with expertise to continue the
development of Malaysia’s financial system. Offshore financial institutions that meet
the predetermined criteria will be given the flexibility to have a physical presence
onshore – from 2010 for banking institutions and from 2011 for insurance companies.
Comments
Liberalisation well expected. The further liberalisation of the financial sector is within
our and market expectations as it is in line with the objectives laid out in the Financial
Sector Master Plan (FSMP) issued in 2001. Furthermore, the government has alluded
to announcements on this matter this week.
Upping foreign equity limits for Islamic and investment banks... However, it is a
surprise to us that Bank Negara has increased the foreign equity limits for Islamic and
investment banks from 49% to 70% as this means that foreigners will control these
entities. It appears that the authorities view the relaxation as necessary to attract more
foreign players into the Malaysian market to help develop these segments.
…but not for commercial banks. We are also surprised that the government did not
increase the 30% foreign equity limit for domestic commercial banks, which is
something the market had been looking forward to. An increase in the equity limit for
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
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Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
How Non-Banking Financial Companies Empower Startups With Venture Debt Financing
Technical View
1. Equity Research
PP11072/03/2010 (023549)
VIEWS & NEWS 28 April 2009
Key Indices Value YTD (%) Daily (%) Economics & Banking Update
Financial services liberalisation
KLCI 980.12 11.2 (1.3)
– A ‘Small Bang’ approach…
STI 1,818.61 2.7 (1.8)
Competition in financial sector to intensify gradually. Following
SET 474.99 5.6 0.2
the liberalization of equity ownership requirements in 27 non-
HSI 14,840.42 4.2 (2.7) financial services areas last week, the Government announced
KOSPI 1,339.83 19.2 (1.1) liberalization measures for the financial sector yesterday. The
‘gradualist’ approach does not come as a surprise, as we enter the
TWSE 5,705.05 24.3 (3.0)
final phase of the Financial Sector Master Plan which has laid out a
DJIA 8,025.00 (7.4) (0.6)
road map for greater foreign participation by 2010.
S&P 857.51 (3.7) (1.0)
FTSE 4,167.01 (5.1) 0.3 Other Local News
Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that
OPR had been “front-loaded”
Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08
Stock Picks Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with
Large Caps (Mkt Cap >RM2b) Price (RM) TP (RM) Sime Darby Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner
Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam
IJM 4.82 5.50
KLCCP 3.16 3.60
Outside Malaysia
Tanjong Plc 14.10 17.60
G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks'
Resorts 2.39 3.10 toxic assets
Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline
Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third
month in May
Mid Caps (RM600m – RM2b) Price (RM) TP (RM) Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses
Guinness 5.70 6.20 Japan: Cuts economic forecast to record 3.3% YoY decline for
2009
KFC 6.90 7.90
Japan: Pledges record JPY 13.9tr (USD 143b) budget for
Litrak 2.18 2.88
stimulus
JTI 4.22 5.40 China: Current-account surplus may shrink, Zhou says
WCT 1.48 1.70 Hong Kong: Exports fall for a fifth month in March on global
recession
Technicals
The market tumbled after its recent rise as profit-taking activities
emerged due to weaker regional markets.
2. VIEWS & NEWS
Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that OPR had been
Other Local News “front-loaded”. Zeti indicated that, there will not be any further OPR rate cuts
provided in improvement is seen in the second half of the year and further
improvement going into next year. Zeti expects the global and domestic
economies to improve by the second half of the year. (Source: The Edge Daily)
Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08. Axiata failed to achieve its
FY08 KPIs targets, citing increasing competition in the mobile market of Axiata’s
operating countries, currency volatility, liquidity shortages, and fluctuation of
interest rates. Axiata did not meet its target for revenue growth, EBITDA margin
and ROE for FY08. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with Sime Darby
Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner. Ramunia and Sime Darby
clarified in an announcement that, they are in engaged in a discussion on a
potential corporate transaction as part of Ramunia’s search for a strategic
partner. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam. Datuk Seri
Tony Fernandes is keen on setting up affiliate airlines in the two countries. He
envisioned all AirAsia affiliates in Asean to become a single entity, ultimately.
(Source: Business Times)
Morning Call 28 April 2009 Page 2 of 5
3. VIEWS & NEWS
G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks' toxic
Outside Malaysia assets. In warning that the world economy could still take another turn for the
worse, the finance ministers and central bankers who met over the weekend in
Washington singled out the banks' impaired balance sheets as the biggest threat
to a sustainable recovery. Their remarks indicate it will be critical to follow
through on commitments to deploy taxpayer funds to buy distressed assets,
even as some gauges of financial stress ease. U.S. officials aim to finance the
purchases of as much as USD 1tr of loans and securities, and Germany is
pushing a plan to remove EUR 853b (USD 1.1tr) from balance sheets. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline. The outbreak of
deadly swine flu may curtail tourism and compel shoppers to stay home, further
damaging an economy already reeling because of a U.S. recession that has cut
demand for exports. President Felipe Calderon closed Mexico City schools until
May 6, shut public events and declared emergency powers to order quarantines
to fight the flu, which has killed as many as 103 in Mexico. Finance Minister
Agustin Carstens said there’s “high potential” the outbreak will disrupt the
economy, with hotels and restaurants being the hardest hit. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third month in May
as slower inflation boosted household purchasing power and the recession
showed first signs of easing. GfK AG’s confidence index for, based on a survey
of about 2,000 people, was unchanged from April at 2.5%, the Nuremberg-
based market-research company said in a statement. German business and
investor confidence increased this month on hopes that interest-rate cuts and
government stimulus packages will lift the economy out of its worst recession in
over six decades. Germany’s leading economic institutes predict the economy,
Europe’s largest, will shrink by 6% YoY this year. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses. Ireland’s government is
preparing to buy EUR 90b (USD 119b) of property loans in a bid to stave off
nationalizing its biggest lenders. It may still end up with majority control of the
country’s banks. Companies led by Allied Irish Banks Plc may get 25% less than
the face value of their loans under the proposal from the National Asset
Management Agency, according to the median estimate of seven analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg News. That implies losses of EUR 22.5b. Analyst
estimates for the discount ranged from 15% to 30%. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Cuts economic forecast to record 3.3% YoY decline for 2009 as
exports and corporate spending tumble at an unprecedented pace. The Cabinet
Office cut the forecast for the year started April 1 from a January prediction for
zero growth. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano told parliament that the economy
remains in a “crisis” as the slump in exports and industrial output take a toll on
employment and companies struggle to raise funds. The world’s second-largest
economy would contract as much as 5.2% YoY without Prime Minister Taro
Aso’s JPY 15.4tr (USD 159b) stimulus plan, funding of which was approved by
the Cabinet, the government said. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Pledges record JPY 13.9tr (USD 143b) budget for stimulus aimed at
pulling the nation out of its worst recession since World War II. The government
will sell JPY 10.8tr in new bonds to pay for most of the extra budget, according
to a proposal released by the Finance Ministry. The extra debt sale will bring the
government’s new bond sales for the year ending March 31 to a record JPY
44.1tr. Bond yields rose to the highest in almost five months on April 10, the day
Aso unveiled the record JPY 15.4tr stimulus spending. (Source: Bloomberg)
Morning Call 28 April 2009 Page 3 of 5
4. VIEWS & NEWS
China: Current-account surplus may shrink, Zhou says. People’s Bank of
Outside Malaysia China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s current-account surplus “‘will no
longer be a serious problem” as the country’s economic-stimulus plan stokes
domestic demand. Zhou, speaking to reporters in Washington, said “hopefully
the current-account surplus is going to shrink” as China’s economic stimulus
plan begins to show results. “For the medium term, I think probably this will no
longer be a serious problem,” said Zhou, who was in Washington for the
International Monetary Fund meeting. China’s current-account surplus rose 15%
YoY to USD 426b last year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange
reported last week. (Source: Bloomberg)
Hong Kong: Exports fall for a fifth month in March on global recession.
Overseas sales dropped 21.1% YoY to HKD175.5b (USD 23b). Hong Kong, a
trade hub for China, is heading for its first full-year contraction since 1998 as
exports and domestic demand tumble, forcing companies including PCCW Ltd.,
the city’s largest phone company, and lender HSBC Holdings Plc to cut jobs.
The world’s economy will shrink 1.3% YoY this year, the International Monetary
Fund said last week. (Source: Bloomberg)
Morning Call 28 April 2009 Page 4 of 5
5. VIEWS & NEWS
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:
STRONG BUY Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 12 months; high conviction call
BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months
s
HOLD Total return is expected to be between above 0% to 10% in the next 12 months
FULLY VALUED Total return is expected to be between -10% and 0% in the next 12 months
SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months
TRADING BUY Total return is expected to be between 10-20% in the next 6 months arising from positive newsflow e.g. mergers and
acquisition, corporate restructuring, and potential of obtaining new projects. However, the upside may or may not be
sustainable
WITHHELD Rating and target price withheld in the exercise of Maybank Investment Bank 's duties under the applicable laws, rules,
regulations, policies and procedures for the time being in force, and is not a reflection of expected returns.
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are
only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not
carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings
BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio
Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter
CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset
DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity
DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds
EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year
EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date
EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each
security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental
ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on
price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may
receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to
provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the
particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding
the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently
verified by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or
consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and
related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be
materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting
commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services
for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time,
without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”,
“believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”,
“should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions
made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ
materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-
looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking
statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated
events.
This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Published / Printed by
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H)
(Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad)
(A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136
http://www.maybank-ib.com
Morning Call 28 April 2009 Page 5 of 5
6. Equity Research
PP11072/03/2010 (023549)
TECHNICALS 28 April 2009
Technicals
27 Apr % Chg Net Chg Market Review
YTD Daily (pts) Value The market tumbled after its recent rise as profit-taking activities
Equity Markets
emerged due to weaker regional markets. Swine flu worries caused
Malaysia
the regional malaise. In addition, investors were cautious as they
KL Comp 11.8 (1.3) (12.6) 980.12
FTBM Emas 13.0 (1.5) (100.6) 6,470.59 awaited the announcement on the liberalisation of the financial
FTBM 2nd Brd 7.5 (0.0) (0.7) 4,309.56 sector. The KLCI shed 12.56 points to 980.12 and the FBM Emas
FTBM Mesdaq 4.1 (4.1) (146.8) 3,470.38 lost 100.59 points to 6,470.59. Meanwhile, the FBM Second Board
Regional
and MESDAQ indices declined 0.66 points to 4,309.56 and 146.77
Singapore STI 3.2 (1.8) (34.2) 1,818.61
Thailand SET 5.6 0.2 0.9 474.99 points to 3,470.38 respectively. Trading volume was a very high
Indonesia JCI 16.3 (1.0) (15.3) 1,576.08 2.11b shares worth RM1.42b. Market breadth was negative as losers
Philippines 11.4 (0.9) (18.0) 2,085.63 outnumbered gainers 508 to 188, while 169 counters remained
Japan Nikkei (1.5) 0.2 18.4 8,726.34
unchanged.
HK Hang Seng 3.1 (2.7) (418.4) 14,840.4
S Korea KOSPI 19.2 (1.1) (14.3) 1,339.83
Taiwan Weigh 24.3 (3.0) (175.7) 5,705.05
Regional Markets
United States
Dow Jones (8.6) (0.6) (51.3) 8,025.00 The regional markets were lower as the outbreak of the swine flu
Nasdaq 6.5 (0.9) (14.9) 1,679.41 spread, raising concerns that it may slow the recovery of the global
Commodities/Currency
economy. The Hang Seng tumbled 2.74% or 418.43 points to
WTI Nymex 12.4 (1.3) (0.7) 50.14
14,840.42 on news that the ICBC shareholders will sell their stakes
Gold Futures 2.6 (0.7) (6.2) 907.40
US$/Ringgit 4.3 0.4 0.0 3.60 in the company, while the STI lost 1.85% or 34.24 points to 1,818.61
S$/Ringgit 0.6 (0.0) (0.0) 2.41 in line with regional markets. Elsewhere, the KOSPI declined 1.05%
US$/Yen 7.1 (0.4) (0.4) 96.59
or 14.27 points to 1,339.83 on profit taking and the Jakarta
US$/Euro 7.1 0.9 0.0 0.76
Composite Index shed 1.04% or 15.26 points to 1,576.08. However,
CPOF 46.4 (4.0) (104.0) 2,481.00
Soy Bean 3.5 (4.5) (1.7) 35.15 the Nikkei 225 rebounded slightly by 0.21% or 18.35 points to
Baltic Dry 137.6 (1.8) (34.0) 1,839.00 8,726.34, erasing earlier losses on gains led by banking stocks on
Bursa Malaysia news of possible merger and acquisitions.
4/24/2009 4/27/2009 % Chg
Volume (m units) 2,082.0 2,110.3 1.4
Value (RM m) 1,666.6 1,418.6 (14.9) US Markets
Share Price 0.80 0.67 (16.0) Overnight US markets fell on worries that the swine flu outbreak will
Gainers: Losers: Unchg:
have a negative impact on travel, energy and hotel companies. The
188 508 169
Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.64% or 51.29 points to
Daily Top Volume
8,025.00, the S&P 500 lost 1.01% or 8.72 points to 857.51, while the
4/27/2009 Chg Vol
(RM) (%) (m) Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.88% or 14.88 points to 1,679.41.
1 TALAM CORP BHD 0.09 21.43 12,005.6 Meanwhile, crude oil fell 1.30% or USD0.66 to USD50.14/bbl on
2 RAMUNIA HOLDINGS 0.65 21.50 11,362.6 concerns that the swine flu outbreak will restrict travel and on weaker
3 TIME DOTCOM BHD 0.34 3.08 9,096.6
US economic outlook.
4 KNM GROUP BHD 0.55 -4.35 8,809.2
5 SAAG CONSOLIDATE 0.26 -7.14 8,691.0
Daily Technical Outlook
4/24/2009 4/27/2009 Chg
The KLCI plunged 12.56-points to close at 980.12 yesterday.
Gainers (RM) (RM) (RM)
1 TASEK CORP BHD 3.20 3.90 0.70 Investors may nibble on dips to the support areas of 957 and 974.
2 TOP GLOVE CORP B 5.50 6.15 0.65 Profit-taking on rallies to the resistance areas of 980 and 996 will cap
3 DFZ CAPITAL BHD 3.48 3.80 0.32 market gains for now. A Key Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern
4 KOSSAN RUBBER IN 3.34 3.64 0.30
high was sighted at 996.80 yesterday. As a result, the KLCI could
5 MISC BHD-FRGN 8.65 8.90 0.25
Losers retrace to 965.95, 958.82 and 946.99 before heading higher in the
1 GENTING BHD 4.88 4.60 -0.28 longer-term. As a result of the swine flu worries, rubber glove
2 PROTON HOLDINGS 3.06 2.80 -0.26
manufacturers would rise. Among the technical buy stocks that we
3 BURSA MALAYSIA 6.20 6.00 -0.20
like are: ADVENTA, AFG, AIRPORT, HARTA, KLCCP, KOSSAN,
4 PUB BANK-FOREIGN 8.65 8.45 -0.20
5 NPC RESOURCES BH 1.99 1.80 -0.19 SUPERMX, TOPGLOV and TWSPLNT.
KLCI Line Chart KLCI: Key Points
The May KLCIF is at a 5.12-point discount to the KLCI
Take some profits at 980 and 996
Nibble on dips to the supports of 954 and 974
Key Bearish Engulfing High sighted at 996.80
Lee Cheng Hooi
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com
(603) 2297 8694
7. Technicals
KLCI Daily Chart
TECHNICALS
52 Week High : 1,305.09 : TAKE PROFITS
Strategy
52 Week Low : 801.27
CCI : Positive
Support S1/S2 : 957 & 974 DMI : Positive
Resistance R1/R2 : 980 & 996 MACD : Positive
Oscillator : Positive
Upside target T1/T2 : 1,008 & 1,043 (deferred) RSI : Overbought (72)
Stop-loss : 955 Stochastic : Negative
Upward Period : 2 days to 2 months Trend : Up
MARKET ROUNDUP
The KLCI traded much lower on broad-based profit-taking activities and the index settled at 980.12 with a
12.56-point loss. Some stocks that led the decline were GENTING, SIME, TENAGA, COMMERZ and ASTRO.
Technical Viewpoint: Due to its superb and positive price and very high volume trends recently, the KLCI is
in its Wave 4C “Flat” corrective rise from the 936.63 high (Wave 4A) and the 836.51 low (Wave 4B)
respectively. The Wave iii/4C move stalled at 996.80 high yesterday. A Wave iv/4C correction move is
underway for the next few days. The index may find some buying interest at its support levels of 957 and 974,
while the firm resistance areas of 980 and 996 will cap its rise for today.
With the heavy volumes and selling yesterday, the market is due to make a correction move ahead of the
Labour Day holiday. Some volatility could be expected for the next 3 days. However, the correction phase
could be short and swift as the upward momentum could be lost otherwise. With the Bearish Engulfing Candle
pattern that emerged yesterday, the KLCI could retrace to 965.95, 958.82 and 946.99 before heading higher.
KLCI Futures reading: The May contract moved to a 5.12-point discount to the KLCI. Traders will trade the
range for the KLCIF today with a profit-taking bias. Nibble at the support areas of 948.0 and 967.0 and take
profit at the 975.0 and 1,002.0-resistance zone.
Technicals 28 April 2009 Page 2 of 5
8. Technicals
Daily Trading Idea
ADVENTA – RM1.07 FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL)
(Stock Code: 7191) (Bloomberg Code: ADV MK Equity)
Adventa Berhad (ADVENTA) manufactures and distributes sterile surgical and medical examination gloves
as well as distributes medical and hospital related products. It also generates and supplies energy and
electricity using biomass technology.
FUNDAMENTALS TECHNICALS
Board / Sector : Main / Industrial Products CCI : Positive
Par Value : RM0.50 DMI : Positive
Market Cap. : RM147.5m MACD : Positive
52 Week High : RM1.34 Stochastic : Positive
52 Week Low : RM0.60 Oscillator : Positive
Book Value / Share : RM1.01 RSI : V Overbought (81)
Beta vs. KLCI : 0.87
Dividend/share : 4.4sen Support S1/S2 : RM0.86 & 1.07
Historical EPS : 8.5sen Resistance R1/R2 : RM1.12 & 1.32
Historical P/E : 12.4x Trend : Up
Historical Ind. P/E : 10.7x Upside target T1/T2 : RM1.24 & 1.54
Historical Net Profit : RM11.9m Stop-loss : RM0.84
Avg. Daily 3mth Vol. : 0.05m shares Upward Period : 2 days to 1 month
Recommendation
ADVENTA made a Wave 5 low of RM0.60 in Nov ’08, with grossly oversold and bullish divergent signals.
The stock is in a firm Wave 3 uptrend, confirmed by the positive crossover from the CCI, DMI, MACD,
Stochastic and Oscillator indicators. We feel that ADVENTA will rise and test the stipulated resistance and
target levels.
FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) on dips for ADVENTA with good support areas at RM0.86 and RM1.07, with fine
potential to reach its stipulated resistance and target areas of RM1.24 and RM1.54. Stop-loss is at RM0.84.
Technicals 28 April 2009 Page 3 of 5
9. Technicals
Daily Trading Idea
SUPERMX – RM1.60 FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL)
(Stock Code: 7106) (Bloomberg Code: SUCB MK Equity)
Supermax Corporation Berhad (SUPERMX) is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries
manufacture, sell, and export various types of latex gloves around the world.
FUNDAMENTALS TECHNICALS
Board / Sector : Main / Industrial Product CCI : Positive
Par Value : RM0.50 DMI : Positive
Market Cap. : RM421.8m MACD : Positive
52 Week High : RM1.78 Stochastic : Positive
52 Week Low : RM0.78 Oscillator : Positive
Book Value / Share : RM1.57 RSI : V Overbought (81)
Beta vs. KLCI : 0.86
Dividend/share : 3.3sen Support S1/S2 : RM1.34 & 1.60
Historical EPS : 17.5sen Resistance R1/R2 : RM1.78 & 1.96
Historical P/E : 9.1x Trend : Up
Historical Ind. P/E : 10.7x Upside target T1/T2 : RM1.90 & 2.20
Historical Net Profit : RM46.5m Stop-loss : RM1.32
Avg. Daily 3mth Vol. : 0.6m shares Upward Period : 2 days to 1 month
Recommendation
SUPERMX made a Wave 5 low of RM0.78 in Feb ’09, with grossly oversold and overbought signals.
Indicators (like CCI, DMI, MACD, Stochastic and Oscillator) confirm its very strong Wave 3 uptrend. As such,
SUPERMX will rise further and test the stipulated resistance and target levels.
FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) for SUPERMX, with strong support areas seen at RM1.34 and RM1.60, with great
potential to reach its stipulated resistance and target areas of RM1.78 and RM1.96. Stop-loss is at RM1.32.
Technicals 28 April 2009 Page 4 of 5
10. Technicals
Definition of Technical Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following technical rating system:
FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 1 month.
ACCUMULATE (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 2 weeks.
STRONG SELL (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 20% in the next 1 month.
TAKE PROFIT (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 10% in the next 2 weeks.
SHORT-TERM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be between 5-10% in the next 2 weeks. However, the upside may or may not
be sustainable.
Applicability of Technical Ratings
Technical ratings are purely based on price and volume-related indicators extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, explained in the
Glossary below. Featured securities are selected as and when their technical indicators appear convincing for an investment action. Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise its Technical Ratings to reflect new information, events or
circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
Glossary of key technical terms
COMMODITY CHANNEL An oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when an investment vehicle has been overbought and
INDEX (CCI) oversold. It quantifies the relationship between the asset's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price,
and normal deviations (D) from that average.
DIRECTIONAL An indicator for identifying when a definable trend is present in an instrument, i.e. the DMI tells whether an
MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI) instrument is trending or not.
MOVING AVERAGE A trend lagging momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A
“signal line” is also plotted on top of the MACD to function as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
CONVERGENCE
DIVERGENCE (MACD)
OSCILLATOR A technical analysis tool that is banded between two extreme values and built with the results from a trend
indicator for discovering short-term overbought or oversold conditions. As the oscillator approaches the upper
extreme value the stock is overbought, while in the lower extreme it is oversold.
RELATIVE STRENGTH A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent losses to determine overbought and
INDEX (RSI) oversold conditions of the stock. The stock is overbought (overvalued) once the RSI approaches the 80-level.
Meanwhile, the stock is oversold (undervalued) as the RSI approaches the 20-level.
STOCHASTIC A technical momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a given time
period. The stock is overbought when the indicator is above 80 and oversold when it is below 20.
Source: Investopedia.com
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of
an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each
security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings.
Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and
volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less
than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal
investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons
who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing
in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified
by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential
losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and related companies and
their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the
securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such
securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”,
“estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could”
or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and
information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from
those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements.
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new
information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,
state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Published / Printed by
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H)
(Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad)
(A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136
http://www.maybank-ib.com
Technicals 28 April 2009 Page 5 of 5