– February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on shopping trips in the U.S..– Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S., they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of the year – There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened. – Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales.– Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store, they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices.– Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
Engaging End Users (There are More Than You Think)Aaron Magness
Clearly Contacts provides concise summaries of 3 sentences or less:
Clearly Contacts discusses the importance of engagement with employees, customers, and community. The company emphasizes empowering employees and aligning values. Strong customer engagement comes from a positive experience and word-of-mouth promotion on social media. Clearly Contacts also discusses giving back through charitable initiatives to engage the community.
- The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $84 billion for the second quarter of 2006, a slight increase from $81 billion in the same period in 2005.
- Growth in new policies and premiums written was lower than expected at 2% due to softer market pricing conditions and increased competition.
- The combined ratio for the quarter was 86.6%, excellent and only 0.5 points higher than the prior year, demonstrating continued strong profitability.
All in the family ira sohn conference.2011alphamasters
Family Dollar is a discount retailer operating approximately 7,000 stores across the United States. It focuses on consumable products and prices items comparably to mass merchants like Walmart. While Family Dollar has consistently grown same store sales, its profitability has lagged competitors like Dollar General. The analysis identifies opportunities for Family Dollar to improve productivity, including increasing sales per square foot and margins to close the gap with Dollar General.
This document discusses an investment opportunity in emerging and frontier markets fixed income funds. It notes the high growth expectations for emerging markets and tendency for developed economies to maintain low interest rates. This creates an opportunity to invest in emerging market corporate and sovereign bonds to obtain equity-like returns with lower risk compared to equities. The Galloway Global Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund is presented as a way to capitalize on this opportunity by investing across emerging market countries and currencies while maintaining risk controls. The manager aims to generate consistent risk-adjusted returns through fundamental research and a diversified portfolio.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
The document provides a financial analysis of Walmart and Sears. It summarizes key metrics for both companies such as revenue, profitability, growth rates, and performance over time. Some of the main points are:
1) Walmart has significantly larger revenue, profits, and global presence compared to Sears. However, Sears has been struggling in recent years with declining sales and profits.
2) Walmart has achieved steady revenue growth and consistent profit margins over the past decade, while Sears has seen revenue declines and fluctuating profitability.
3) Key metrics like return on assets, equity, and inventory management have been stronger for Walmart, indicating more efficient operations compared to Sears.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Convenience Store Industry | Q1 2017 | Segment:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital’s Convenience Store Industry newsletter is a quarterly publication providing perspective on valuation issues pertinent to multi-unit retailing and QSR industries.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
Engaging End Users (There are More Than You Think)Aaron Magness
Clearly Contacts provides concise summaries of 3 sentences or less:
Clearly Contacts discusses the importance of engagement with employees, customers, and community. The company emphasizes empowering employees and aligning values. Strong customer engagement comes from a positive experience and word-of-mouth promotion on social media. Clearly Contacts also discusses giving back through charitable initiatives to engage the community.
- The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $84 billion for the second quarter of 2006, a slight increase from $81 billion in the same period in 2005.
- Growth in new policies and premiums written was lower than expected at 2% due to softer market pricing conditions and increased competition.
- The combined ratio for the quarter was 86.6%, excellent and only 0.5 points higher than the prior year, demonstrating continued strong profitability.
All in the family ira sohn conference.2011alphamasters
Family Dollar is a discount retailer operating approximately 7,000 stores across the United States. It focuses on consumable products and prices items comparably to mass merchants like Walmart. While Family Dollar has consistently grown same store sales, its profitability has lagged competitors like Dollar General. The analysis identifies opportunities for Family Dollar to improve productivity, including increasing sales per square foot and margins to close the gap with Dollar General.
This document discusses an investment opportunity in emerging and frontier markets fixed income funds. It notes the high growth expectations for emerging markets and tendency for developed economies to maintain low interest rates. This creates an opportunity to invest in emerging market corporate and sovereign bonds to obtain equity-like returns with lower risk compared to equities. The Galloway Global Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund is presented as a way to capitalize on this opportunity by investing across emerging market countries and currencies while maintaining risk controls. The manager aims to generate consistent risk-adjusted returns through fundamental research and a diversified portfolio.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.
The document provides a financial analysis of Walmart and Sears. It summarizes key metrics for both companies such as revenue, profitability, growth rates, and performance over time. Some of the main points are:
1) Walmart has significantly larger revenue, profits, and global presence compared to Sears. However, Sears has been struggling in recent years with declining sales and profits.
2) Walmart has achieved steady revenue growth and consistent profit margins over the past decade, while Sears has seen revenue declines and fluctuating profitability.
3) Key metrics like return on assets, equity, and inventory management have been stronger for Walmart, indicating more efficient operations compared to Sears.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Convenience Store Industry | Q1 2017 | Segment:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital’s Convenience Store Industry newsletter is a quarterly publication providing perspective on valuation issues pertinent to multi-unit retailing and QSR industries.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
The document discusses Coca-Cola Enterprises' (CCE) priorities for 2010, including driving growth in North America and Europe. In North America, CCE aims to proactively manage through the dynamic environment, evolve price/package architecture, and enhance in-store execution. In Europe, CCE seeks to grow its Red, Black and Silver brands and portfolio, improve customer-centric supply chain, and expand boost zones. CCE also emphasizes corporate responsibility and sustainability initiatives around water stewardship, packaging/recycling, and diversity. Financially, CCE targets consistent earnings growth, maximizing free cash flow, and increasing returns.
Gary Fayard presented The Coca-Cola Company's financial vision and outlook. He outlined the company's long-term growth targets of 6-8% annual net revenue growth and 3-4% annual operating income growth on a currency neutral basis. He explained how the company will achieve these targets through tailored actions in different markets and by leveraging its competitive advantages of global brands, an extensive bottling system, scale and operational flexibility.
Electrolux Capital Markets Day 2012 - Presentation Keith McLoughlin and Tomas...Electrolux Group
Electrolux Capital Markets Day. November 14, 2012, Stockholm, Sweden. Together with senior management, the President and CEO of Electrolux, Keith McLoughlin will present the Group’s strategy to create further sustainable economic value at today’s capital markets day.
Sage CRM - Accelerating your 2012 Marketing ROI through Cloud CRMSageukofficial
Discover how CRM has helped companies like yours to re-imagine how they market their products and services, and dramatically improve campaign return-on-investment as a result
Global ad spend increased 7.3% in 2011 compared to 2010, led by growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. However, consumer confidence declined in many markets due to economic challenges. Television saw the largest increase in ad spending at 10.1% globally. Healthcare was the top advertising category.
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research ApprovedThais Batista
This document summarizes research on the Australian housing market conducted by Gregory Perdon and colleagues. It finds that Australian household debt is very high at 124% of GDP, largely due to mortgage debt. Inflation in Australia is below the central bank's target due in part to low rent and home price inflation. While unemployment has declined, wage growth has been weak. The researchers visited companies and the central bank to determine if there is a housing bubble, risks to banks and developers, and potential investment opportunities.
The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession - David Wyss, Br...IFG Network marcus evans
David Wyss, Brown University/Standard & Poor - Speaker at the 2012 IFG Wealth Management Forum, delivered his presentation entitled The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
Dean Foods Company presented at the CAGNY Conference on February 21, 2006 in Scottsdale, Arizona. The presentation included forward-looking statements and provided the following information:
1) Dean Foods projected consolidated operating income growth of 9-12% and earnings per share growth of 15-18% for 2006.
2) Dean Foods has two main business segments - Dairy Group and WhiteWave Foods. Dairy Group had fluid milk volume growth of 2.5% in 2005 and WhiteWave Foods had revenue growth of 13% in 2005.
3) WhiteWave Foods' leading brands include Silk soy milk, Horizon organic milk, International Delight creamers, and
The Clorox Company reported sales growth for various business segments in fiscal years 2005 and 2006:
- Laundry/Home Care sales increased 5% in FY05 driven by volume growth and price increases, and increased 5% YTD FY06.
- Water Filtration/Canada/U.S. sales declined 1% in FY05 but increased 3% YTD FY06, with higher Canada and trade spending offsetting lower Auto and Brita volumes.
- Bags & Wraps sales grew 15% in FY05 on favorable product mix and pricing, and increased 12% YTD FY06.
- Total Clorox sales increased 5% in FY05
MIPIM 2012 - Wrap-Up Keynote address from Mark RobertsMIPIMWorld
Austerity-Stimulus, Risks-Opportunities: Fresh insights and way forward.
The US and Europe have embarked on fundamentally different paths in resolving their debt challenges: Austerity measures in Europe versus stimulus in the US. Policy outcomes will be different, and cannot be overlooked by real estate investors. There are many risks to consider and lots of opportunities ahead. How should investors approach the market today? What strategies are investors pursuing for a brighter tomorrow? Join us for the freshest insights on real estate markets: A combination of our panelists' research, your insights gathered during MIPIM conferences and events, and through our survey responses.
The quarterly market review summarizes the performance of the US and global markets from April to June 2012. Major US indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw losses for the quarter, though they remain up year-to-date. Fears about Europe led to higher demand for US Treasuries and lower yields. Commodity prices like oil and gold also declined for the quarter. The document outlines various economic news and indicators over the period, and notes some key upcoming economic reports and events in July.
Vietnam Grocery Report 2013 English - Nielsen Dung Tri
This document discusses Vietnamese grocery shoppers and the consumer market in Vietnam. It provides the following information:
1) Macroeconomic conditions in Vietnam are improving but challenges remain, including sluggish GDP growth and rising unemployment.
2) Consumer confidence in Vietnam is lower than other Asian countries due to concerns about the economy and job security. Consumers are showing restraint in their spending.
3) The fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is slowing down, with nominal growth coming from price increases rather than increased volumes.
4) Vietnam has an opportunity to capitalize on its "golden population structure" which includes a young demographic and aging population presenting new market segments.
Dans un tel Dans le contexte économique actuel, nous pensons qu’un placement en actions à haut rendement du dividende constitue la stratégie d’investissement optimale.
Dans cette présentation, vous découvrirez notre philosophie d’investissement débutée en 1999 ainsi que nos fonds (Euro, Europe, US, Global) gérant près de 10 milliards d’euros.
The document provides supplemental sales growth information for The Clorox Company, breaking down percentage changes in sales by business segment compared to the prior year. Several business segments saw strong sales growth in the first quarter of 2006 due to factors like new product launches, marketing spending, pricing changes, and international expansion. The total sales growth for The Clorox Company was 5% for the first quarter of 2006, matching the growth rate for the full fiscal year 2005.
Sales for the first nine months of 2012 were up 11% to CHF 67.6 billion compared to the same period last year. Organic growth was 6.1% driven by pricing increases of 3.2% and real internal growth of 2.9%. The company saw continued growth in both developed and emerging markets and confirmed its full year outlook of 5-6% organic growth along with improved margins and earnings per share.
PPG Industries reported record first quarter 2008 sales of $3.7 billion, a 40% increase over the previous year. Segment earnings also grew 17% despite economic headwinds. The acquisition of SigmaKalon contributed significantly to sales growth. Organic sales growth was achieved across all segments except Glass. Earnings per share were $0.53 but would have been $1.07 excluding one-time acquisition costs. The company expects further economic slowing in North America but continued growth in emerging markets.
Presentation Why Buy It Community Card Program Overview 9.8.2010amywalkercherry
This document introduces community card systems and how they can benefit local economies. It summarizes that community card programs can capture more local spending by residents and visitors that would otherwise leak out of the local economy. These programs provide measurable results for local merchants in boosting sales even during economic downturns. The document promotes community card programs as a turnkey solution that empowers communities to directly support local businesses and jobs.
CPG growth is anemic and marketplace competition is fierce, so winning in this environment requires a keen understanding of consumers’ evolving path to purchase and dynamic marketplace shifts. To get a clear understanding of the rapidly changing CPG marketplace and the latest growth opportunities, IRI® took a closer look at how consumers’ shopping patterns as well as emerging marketing programs are impacting retail channel trends in its granular analysis, “IRI Channel Performance Report.”
Foreign boys not spared a 20% 1Q earnings decline. The combined net profit
of the five major foreign banks in Malaysia fell 19.7% yoy to RM824.6m in 1Q09,
worse than the 14% slide recorded by the local banks. Clearly, the foreign boys
are not spared the impact of the economic downturn, with earnings dents coming
primarily from (1) a 1.3% yoy drop in net interest income, (2) 25% slump in non-
interest income, and (3) 23% jump in loan loss provisioning (LLP).
• Foreign banks’ loan growth trailing local banks’. As expected, foreign banks
recorded slower net loan growth of 3.1% yoy in Mar 09 compared to 12% for
local banks’ domestic lending. The performance of foreign banks was pulled
down by a 6.8% contraction in Citibank’s loan base, due primarily to a drop in
property and business loans. Other major foreign banks registered single-digit
loan growth ranging from 3.3% (for UOB) to 8.7% (for OCBC).
• Higher NPL ratios and credit costs. Against the backdrop of a grim economic
climate in 1Q09, all major foreign banks saw a rise in their net NPL ratios. The
blended net NPL ratio of these five banks increased from 1.68% in Dec 08 to
1.81% in Mar 09, lower than the industry’s 2.2%. The hike in NPL ratios led to a
23% yoy surge in 1Q09 LLP.
• Better performance by local banks. In 1Q09, local banks outperformed their
foreign peers in the areas of (1) net profit – 14.2% yoy drop vs. 19.7% for foreign
banks, (2) non-interest income – down 7.1% yoy vs. 25.3% for foreign banks
despite their higher exposure to poor investment banking income, and (3) NPL
ratios – a few local banks, i.e. Maybank, Public Bank, AMMB and Alliance
managed to contain their NPL ratios while qoq rises were evident for all the
major foreign banks.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Foreign banks’ poor 1Q09 financial results reflect the
adverse operating environment. We take heart in the outperformance of the local
banks during these difficult times as it suggests that the improvements in local
banks’ operations, especially in the area of risk management, have helped them
to weather the economic downturn. On this note, we are maintaining our
NEUTRAL stance on Malaysian banks as local banks may trump our and market
expectations in countering the slowdown in loan growth and the uptick in NPLs.
Our top pick for the sector remains Public Bank.
An improved performance. While the results announced by oil & gas (O&G)
companies in Mar-May 09 were a mixed bag, they leaned towards the positive,
unlike the previous quarter. A third of the six companies in our portfolio missed our
forecasts, an improvement on 50% in 4Q08. Half of the companies broadly met our
expectations (4Q08: 17%) and one (17%) surprised on the upside (4Q08: 33%).
Since 1 May 09, the share prices of O&G stocks under our coverage have jumped
by an average 28%, reflecting the overall encouraging reporting season.
• Three trends in 1Q09. 1) Margins picked up as companies climbed the value chain:
Except for Dialog, all the companies in our O&G portfolio showed margin
improvement, with average EBIT margin rising from 14% in 4Q08 to 20% in 1Q09.
2) Late delivery remains a problem for offshore support vessel (OSV) operators: In
total, Petra Perdana and Alam missed six vessel delivery dates due to assembly
line congestion and delayed shipment of parts. 3) Petroleum retailers and refiners
bounced back: The rising crude oil price supports the selling prices of products that
are not subject to automatic pricing mechanism (APM) and refiners benefited from
inventory gains.
• Service providers stand to benefit. YTD, the oil price has jumped 56%, reflecting
factors such as 1) a weakening US dollar, which encourages speculative money to
flow into the market, and 2) an increased risk appetite among investors who
anticipate an economic recovery. As a producing country, Malaysia is poised to
benefit from the upward march of the oil price. Petronas-licensed service providers
offering works and facilities such as yards, tank terminals, offshore structures and
maintenance job stand to win the most.
• Target price increases. There are no changes to our forecasts. However, we are
raising our target prices by 11% for Dialog, Kencana, SapuraCrest and Wah Seong
to reflect our recent index target upgrade. We now apply our revised target market
P/E of 15x to the stocks, instead of 13.5x. Our target prices for Alam, Petra Perdana
and Petronas Dagangan are maintained.
• Kencana replaces Petra Perdana as top pick. YTD, Petra Perdana’s share price
has risen by a whopping 120%, making the stock an outstanding performer in our oil
& gas portfolio. While we still like the stock, we are replacing it with Kencana as our
top pick. We believe Kencana’s newsflow and order book replenishment over the
next few months will be more exciting.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector in view
of the potential re-rating catalysts of 1) M&As, and 2) more active newsflow. Also
unchanged are all our stock recommendations and earnings forecasts.
The document discusses Coca-Cola Enterprises' (CCE) priorities for 2010, including driving growth in North America and Europe. In North America, CCE aims to proactively manage through the dynamic environment, evolve price/package architecture, and enhance in-store execution. In Europe, CCE seeks to grow its Red, Black and Silver brands and portfolio, improve customer-centric supply chain, and expand boost zones. CCE also emphasizes corporate responsibility and sustainability initiatives around water stewardship, packaging/recycling, and diversity. Financially, CCE targets consistent earnings growth, maximizing free cash flow, and increasing returns.
Gary Fayard presented The Coca-Cola Company's financial vision and outlook. He outlined the company's long-term growth targets of 6-8% annual net revenue growth and 3-4% annual operating income growth on a currency neutral basis. He explained how the company will achieve these targets through tailored actions in different markets and by leveraging its competitive advantages of global brands, an extensive bottling system, scale and operational flexibility.
Electrolux Capital Markets Day 2012 - Presentation Keith McLoughlin and Tomas...Electrolux Group
Electrolux Capital Markets Day. November 14, 2012, Stockholm, Sweden. Together with senior management, the President and CEO of Electrolux, Keith McLoughlin will present the Group’s strategy to create further sustainable economic value at today’s capital markets day.
Sage CRM - Accelerating your 2012 Marketing ROI through Cloud CRMSageukofficial
Discover how CRM has helped companies like yours to re-imagine how they market their products and services, and dramatically improve campaign return-on-investment as a result
Global ad spend increased 7.3% in 2011 compared to 2010, led by growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. However, consumer confidence declined in many markets due to economic challenges. Television saw the largest increase in ad spending at 10.1% globally. Healthcare was the top advertising category.
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research ApprovedThais Batista
This document summarizes research on the Australian housing market conducted by Gregory Perdon and colleagues. It finds that Australian household debt is very high at 124% of GDP, largely due to mortgage debt. Inflation in Australia is below the central bank's target due in part to low rent and home price inflation. While unemployment has declined, wage growth has been weak. The researchers visited companies and the central bank to determine if there is a housing bubble, risks to banks and developers, and potential investment opportunities.
The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession - David Wyss, Br...IFG Network marcus evans
David Wyss, Brown University/Standard & Poor - Speaker at the 2012 IFG Wealth Management Forum, delivered his presentation entitled The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
Dean Foods Company presented at the CAGNY Conference on February 21, 2006 in Scottsdale, Arizona. The presentation included forward-looking statements and provided the following information:
1) Dean Foods projected consolidated operating income growth of 9-12% and earnings per share growth of 15-18% for 2006.
2) Dean Foods has two main business segments - Dairy Group and WhiteWave Foods. Dairy Group had fluid milk volume growth of 2.5% in 2005 and WhiteWave Foods had revenue growth of 13% in 2005.
3) WhiteWave Foods' leading brands include Silk soy milk, Horizon organic milk, International Delight creamers, and
The Clorox Company reported sales growth for various business segments in fiscal years 2005 and 2006:
- Laundry/Home Care sales increased 5% in FY05 driven by volume growth and price increases, and increased 5% YTD FY06.
- Water Filtration/Canada/U.S. sales declined 1% in FY05 but increased 3% YTD FY06, with higher Canada and trade spending offsetting lower Auto and Brita volumes.
- Bags & Wraps sales grew 15% in FY05 on favorable product mix and pricing, and increased 12% YTD FY06.
- Total Clorox sales increased 5% in FY05
MIPIM 2012 - Wrap-Up Keynote address from Mark RobertsMIPIMWorld
Austerity-Stimulus, Risks-Opportunities: Fresh insights and way forward.
The US and Europe have embarked on fundamentally different paths in resolving their debt challenges: Austerity measures in Europe versus stimulus in the US. Policy outcomes will be different, and cannot be overlooked by real estate investors. There are many risks to consider and lots of opportunities ahead. How should investors approach the market today? What strategies are investors pursuing for a brighter tomorrow? Join us for the freshest insights on real estate markets: A combination of our panelists' research, your insights gathered during MIPIM conferences and events, and through our survey responses.
The quarterly market review summarizes the performance of the US and global markets from April to June 2012. Major US indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw losses for the quarter, though they remain up year-to-date. Fears about Europe led to higher demand for US Treasuries and lower yields. Commodity prices like oil and gold also declined for the quarter. The document outlines various economic news and indicators over the period, and notes some key upcoming economic reports and events in July.
Vietnam Grocery Report 2013 English - Nielsen Dung Tri
This document discusses Vietnamese grocery shoppers and the consumer market in Vietnam. It provides the following information:
1) Macroeconomic conditions in Vietnam are improving but challenges remain, including sluggish GDP growth and rising unemployment.
2) Consumer confidence in Vietnam is lower than other Asian countries due to concerns about the economy and job security. Consumers are showing restraint in their spending.
3) The fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is slowing down, with nominal growth coming from price increases rather than increased volumes.
4) Vietnam has an opportunity to capitalize on its "golden population structure" which includes a young demographic and aging population presenting new market segments.
Dans un tel Dans le contexte économique actuel, nous pensons qu’un placement en actions à haut rendement du dividende constitue la stratégie d’investissement optimale.
Dans cette présentation, vous découvrirez notre philosophie d’investissement débutée en 1999 ainsi que nos fonds (Euro, Europe, US, Global) gérant près de 10 milliards d’euros.
The document provides supplemental sales growth information for The Clorox Company, breaking down percentage changes in sales by business segment compared to the prior year. Several business segments saw strong sales growth in the first quarter of 2006 due to factors like new product launches, marketing spending, pricing changes, and international expansion. The total sales growth for The Clorox Company was 5% for the first quarter of 2006, matching the growth rate for the full fiscal year 2005.
Sales for the first nine months of 2012 were up 11% to CHF 67.6 billion compared to the same period last year. Organic growth was 6.1% driven by pricing increases of 3.2% and real internal growth of 2.9%. The company saw continued growth in both developed and emerging markets and confirmed its full year outlook of 5-6% organic growth along with improved margins and earnings per share.
PPG Industries reported record first quarter 2008 sales of $3.7 billion, a 40% increase over the previous year. Segment earnings also grew 17% despite economic headwinds. The acquisition of SigmaKalon contributed significantly to sales growth. Organic sales growth was achieved across all segments except Glass. Earnings per share were $0.53 but would have been $1.07 excluding one-time acquisition costs. The company expects further economic slowing in North America but continued growth in emerging markets.
Presentation Why Buy It Community Card Program Overview 9.8.2010amywalkercherry
This document introduces community card systems and how they can benefit local economies. It summarizes that community card programs can capture more local spending by residents and visitors that would otherwise leak out of the local economy. These programs provide measurable results for local merchants in boosting sales even during economic downturns. The document promotes community card programs as a turnkey solution that empowers communities to directly support local businesses and jobs.
CPG growth is anemic and marketplace competition is fierce, so winning in this environment requires a keen understanding of consumers’ evolving path to purchase and dynamic marketplace shifts. To get a clear understanding of the rapidly changing CPG marketplace and the latest growth opportunities, IRI® took a closer look at how consumers’ shopping patterns as well as emerging marketing programs are impacting retail channel trends in its granular analysis, “IRI Channel Performance Report.”
Foreign boys not spared a 20% 1Q earnings decline. The combined net profit
of the five major foreign banks in Malaysia fell 19.7% yoy to RM824.6m in 1Q09,
worse than the 14% slide recorded by the local banks. Clearly, the foreign boys
are not spared the impact of the economic downturn, with earnings dents coming
primarily from (1) a 1.3% yoy drop in net interest income, (2) 25% slump in non-
interest income, and (3) 23% jump in loan loss provisioning (LLP).
• Foreign banks’ loan growth trailing local banks’. As expected, foreign banks
recorded slower net loan growth of 3.1% yoy in Mar 09 compared to 12% for
local banks’ domestic lending. The performance of foreign banks was pulled
down by a 6.8% contraction in Citibank’s loan base, due primarily to a drop in
property and business loans. Other major foreign banks registered single-digit
loan growth ranging from 3.3% (for UOB) to 8.7% (for OCBC).
• Higher NPL ratios and credit costs. Against the backdrop of a grim economic
climate in 1Q09, all major foreign banks saw a rise in their net NPL ratios. The
blended net NPL ratio of these five banks increased from 1.68% in Dec 08 to
1.81% in Mar 09, lower than the industry’s 2.2%. The hike in NPL ratios led to a
23% yoy surge in 1Q09 LLP.
• Better performance by local banks. In 1Q09, local banks outperformed their
foreign peers in the areas of (1) net profit – 14.2% yoy drop vs. 19.7% for foreign
banks, (2) non-interest income – down 7.1% yoy vs. 25.3% for foreign banks
despite their higher exposure to poor investment banking income, and (3) NPL
ratios – a few local banks, i.e. Maybank, Public Bank, AMMB and Alliance
managed to contain their NPL ratios while qoq rises were evident for all the
major foreign banks.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Foreign banks’ poor 1Q09 financial results reflect the
adverse operating environment. We take heart in the outperformance of the local
banks during these difficult times as it suggests that the improvements in local
banks’ operations, especially in the area of risk management, have helped them
to weather the economic downturn. On this note, we are maintaining our
NEUTRAL stance on Malaysian banks as local banks may trump our and market
expectations in countering the slowdown in loan growth and the uptick in NPLs.
Our top pick for the sector remains Public Bank.
An improved performance. While the results announced by oil & gas (O&G)
companies in Mar-May 09 were a mixed bag, they leaned towards the positive,
unlike the previous quarter. A third of the six companies in our portfolio missed our
forecasts, an improvement on 50% in 4Q08. Half of the companies broadly met our
expectations (4Q08: 17%) and one (17%) surprised on the upside (4Q08: 33%).
Since 1 May 09, the share prices of O&G stocks under our coverage have jumped
by an average 28%, reflecting the overall encouraging reporting season.
• Three trends in 1Q09. 1) Margins picked up as companies climbed the value chain:
Except for Dialog, all the companies in our O&G portfolio showed margin
improvement, with average EBIT margin rising from 14% in 4Q08 to 20% in 1Q09.
2) Late delivery remains a problem for offshore support vessel (OSV) operators: In
total, Petra Perdana and Alam missed six vessel delivery dates due to assembly
line congestion and delayed shipment of parts. 3) Petroleum retailers and refiners
bounced back: The rising crude oil price supports the selling prices of products that
are not subject to automatic pricing mechanism (APM) and refiners benefited from
inventory gains.
• Service providers stand to benefit. YTD, the oil price has jumped 56%, reflecting
factors such as 1) a weakening US dollar, which encourages speculative money to
flow into the market, and 2) an increased risk appetite among investors who
anticipate an economic recovery. As a producing country, Malaysia is poised to
benefit from the upward march of the oil price. Petronas-licensed service providers
offering works and facilities such as yards, tank terminals, offshore structures and
maintenance job stand to win the most.
• Target price increases. There are no changes to our forecasts. However, we are
raising our target prices by 11% for Dialog, Kencana, SapuraCrest and Wah Seong
to reflect our recent index target upgrade. We now apply our revised target market
P/E of 15x to the stocks, instead of 13.5x. Our target prices for Alam, Petra Perdana
and Petronas Dagangan are maintained.
• Kencana replaces Petra Perdana as top pick. YTD, Petra Perdana’s share price
has risen by a whopping 120%, making the stock an outstanding performer in our oil
& gas portfolio. While we still like the stock, we are replacing it with Kencana as our
top pick. We believe Kencana’s newsflow and order book replenishment over the
next few months will be more exciting.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector in view
of the potential re-rating catalysts of 1) M&As, and 2) more active newsflow. Also
unchanged are all our stock recommendations and earnings forecasts.
Be cautious into 3Q. 1Q09 results of the six banking stocks we cover
were generally in line, with combined net profit down 2.1% QoQ and
13.1% YoY. However, the weak 1Q09 GDP suggests growing stress in
system loans over the coming months. We remain cautious on banks’
profits, especially from 3Q09. Underweight the sector.
1Q down a sharp 13.1% YoY. Other than AMMB’s positive surprise,
results were generally in-line. The combined net profit of our banking
universe was flattish QoQ but fell a sharp 13.1% YoY on lower treasury
and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. Net interest income
expanded, but the weak equity market continued to affect brokerage
income, which contracted for the 5th to 6th consecutive quarter.
Some signs of stress. Domestic loans continued growing at most
banks. QoQ loan growth at the major banks (Maybank, CIMB Bank and
Public Bank) outpaced system growth. Some loan segments, however,
have begun showing stress. Domestic NPL saw upticks in the
consumer (mortgage, autos) and working capital segments. Net NPL
ratios continued to trend down due to the expanded loans base.
Earnings to contract. There were no major revisions in our individual
earnings forecasts except for AMMB (FY09: +16%, FY10: +7%). Our
combined net profit forecast was upgraded by a marginal 0.1% for 2009
and 0.7% for 2010. We expect sector earnings to contract 9.9% in
2009, before recovering to 6.8% growth in 2010 (previously -10.1%,
+6.1% respectively). This excludes further impairment in the value of
long-term investments, merger costs and other one-offs.
Asset quality concerns. 1Q09 GDP (-6.2% YoY, -7.7% QoQ) should
be the weakest, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we
expect economic recovery to be slow, with real GDP to return to the
3Q08 high only in 4Q10. There is a 3-6 month interval from GDP trough
to NPL peak. Hence, banks are set to report weaker profits on rising
NPLs and higher credit charges from 3Q09.
Mainly Sells. Against regional peers, the larger Malaysian banks are
pricey. The current liquidity driven market has pushed valuations up but
prospects for a strong economic recovery stay hazy. Sell into strength.
Upping CPO price forecasts. In this report card on the recent results season, we
are raising our CPO price (cif) forecasts by 18% for 2009 and 8% for 2010 to
US$710 per tonne for both years. The reasons for our upgrades are Argentina’s
lower soybean crops, the slower decline in demand growth from key consumers
and a slower-than-expected recovery in palm oil output. Our new local CPO price
forecasts are RM2,280 for 2009 and RM2,250 for 2010.
• CPO price to pull back in 3Q before recovering in 4Q. We remain positive
about CPO price until end-2Q as the replenishment of stocks will require time,
India’s import duties on edible oils remain at zero and there is concern over the
delay in plantings in US. We expect CPO price to pull back in 3Q before
recovering towards the end of the year.
• Upgrading earnings forecasts and target prices. In view of our higher CPO
price forecasts and recent changes in our rupiah assumptions, we are raising our
FY09-10 earnings forecasts for all the planters in our coverage by up to 30%.
This, along with higher target P/Es following our upgrade of regional
stockmarkets, bumps up our target prices by 3-53%. We are raising Hap Seng
Plantations and Sampoerna Agro to Neutral given their recent underperformance.
• Upgrading Malaysian plantation sector to Neutral. We are raising our rating for
the Malaysian plantation sector from Underweight to Neutral as its valuation
premium over regional peers has narrowed following its recent underperformance,
selected plantations stocks will benefit from an increase in their weightings in the
new FBM30 indices on 6 July 2009, we are more bullish on the Malaysian stock
market and foreign shareholding levels have fallen.
• Staying NEUTRAL on regional plantation sector. Despite our CPO price
upgrade, we remain NEUTRAL on the regional plantation sector as the share
prices of most planters in our universe have done well YTD, reflecting the more
upbeat CPO price outlook and expectations of a correction of CPO price in 3Q
due to seasonally higher production and potential cutbacks in demand from major
consuming countries if crop prospects improve. There is also no change to our
Overweight rating on the Singapore plantation sector and Neutral call on the
Indonesian plantation sector. For exposure to the regional plantation sector, we
continue to recommend large-cap liquid planters. Our top picks in the region are
Wilmar, Sime Darby, Indofood Agri and London Sumatra.
Welcome to the 2009 edition of
The Wealth Report, the third such collaboration
between Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank.
Over the past 12 months the economic outlook has
become even more uncertain. Most of the developed
world is now in recession, and even the emerging
economies have been forced to pause for breath. Every
commentator accepts 2009 will be tough. Our Attitudes
Survey (page 12) indicates clearly that HNWIs will look
to protect their wealth from the ravages of the
downturn with an emphasis firmly on security and
transparency rather than risk.
The tangible nature of property means it is well
placed to benefit from this shift in emphasis, and there
are signs that some mature prime property markets,
such as London and New York, have readjusted to price
levels that offer good value for purchasers. For some
emerging markets, the rollercoaster ride looks set to
continue. A full analysis of prime global markets is
included on page 26, and we recommend 10 locations
and sectors that offer potential for growth on page 23.
As property is just one aspect of wealth, we have
expanded the scope of The Wealth Report by including
an investigation into the performance of alternative
assets, from art and cars to wine (page 36), and an
assessment of the state of the philanthropy sector
(page 16). Influential thinkers, such as Alain de Botton
(page 20), also share their views on how the world will
adjust to life post credit crunch.
We hope you enjoy reading the report.
The document provides a summary and analysis of Malaysian companies' 1Q09 earnings results. Some key points:
- The results season was not as bad as feared, with fewer companies missing expectations than in previous quarters. EPS forecasts for 2009 and 2010 were surprisingly raised rather than cut.
- Six sectors disappointed expectations while two performed above. The revision ratio improved to 0.6x, indicating less negative earnings momentum.
- The worst could be over as future quarters may see more balanced results and fewer EPS cuts. However, EPS growth may not turn positive again until 3Q09.
- During the results period, the analyst raised forecasts for eight companies and lowered forecasts for 23 companies.
The majority down. 62% of our 72-stock universe suffered lower
sequential quarterly net profits, with 24% surprising on the downside.
The combined 1Q09 net profit of our research universe fell by just 3.5%
QoQ. But stripping out 5 large gainers, net profits fell a larger 13.6%
QoQ. Consumers and glove manufacturers’ defied gravity, but net
profits of virtually all stocks in nine sectors fell quarter-on-quarter.
A surprising combined result, but the devil is in the details. The
combined net profit of our research universe declined just 3.5% QoQ
despite an overwhelming 62% of companies reporting a sequential
quarterly decline. But excluding five companies, combined net profit fell
13.6% QoQ, an acceleration from previous quarters. A broad-based
earnings decline is being masked by a few companies, including some
monopolies.
Declines in nine sectors, but consumer sector unscathed. Every
stock in nine sectors, excluding monopolies Petronas Gas and KLCCP,
experienced a drop in quarterly sequential earnings. The sectors are
gaming, oil & gas, property, REITs, construction, building materials,
semi-conductors, plantations and toll roads. Consumer stocks and
glove manufacturers showed particular resilience.
An ‘energy dividend’ took effect; monopolies fared well. Lower oil
prices benefited heavy fuel users AirAsia and Tenaga. Their gains were
only partially offset by lower earnings at the oil & gas services
companies. Net profits of Telekom, Tenaga and Petronas Gas, all
effectively monopolies, improved on a quarterly basis although only
Petronas Gas raised prices in 1Q09.
The biggest disappointment and downgrade: 1Q GDP. First quarter
2009 GDP fell 6.2% YoY, against consensus expectations of a 3-4%
drop. We have revised our GDP forecasts to -3.8% in 2009 and +4.0%
YoY in 2010 (previously -1.3% and +3.5% respectively). The
government, to be ahead in the expectations game, is projecting 2009
GDP growth of -4% to -5%. The silver lining is the government is now
under greater pressure to implement its fiscal stimulus plans quickly.
A reversal of fortune ahead for construction, building materials.
Despite uniformly lower earnings this 1Q, we believe the construction
and building materials sectors are only 2-3 quarters away from
improved revenues. Share prices of stocks in these sectors will likely
be driven by newsflow from the fiscal stimulus rather than earnings.
Be realistic, be selective. We believe this market rally has pushed
valuations to the point where growth expectations have reached
implausible levels. In fact, profits have just begun to turn down. We are
not overly bearish – our Buy list is longer than our Sell list – but we
caution that optimism over growth can disappear as quickly as it
appeared. Domestic factors, particularly political developments, may
be a positive catalyst.
Profit recession has just begun. Industrial production peaked in
January 2008, but profits only began a broad-based decline in 1Q09.
Within our coverage, 63% of the companies that have released 1Q
earnings reported lower sequential quarterly net profits. In seven
sectors, our entire coverage list suffered profit contractions. This
suggests the recession in profits has just begun.
Market valuation implies an optimistic view of growth. The market
currently trades at 15.2x 2009 earnings, up from 12x earlier this year.
This is only 10% below the previous cycle’s mid-cycle value, but today,
we face growth of -7.7% (2009) and +9.7% (2010), taking market
earnings only 1% higher by the end of 2010 from its end-2008 level.
Market growth expectations seem to be running ahead of reality.
History tells us the bear market isn’t over. Two previous bear
markets over 1981-86 and 1993-98 lasted 57 and 58 months
respectively. It has now been 17 months from the January 2008
collapse. Those bear markets had 22-38 trend reversals of 5% or more;
we have now seen 12 since January 2008. These comparisons suggest
we are, at best, half way through this bear market.
Bet on Prime Minister Najib, but Sell hope. Our top stock picks are
in the construction sector. We expect PM Najib will deliver on the fiscal
spending promises, reinvigorating the construction and building
materials sectors. Our top Sells are stocks where high hopes and
expectations have been built in; where current prices have run well
ahead of both our and consensus target prices.
Politics a positive wildcard. Beyond rapidly executed fiscal packages,
the country’s new leadership could make further changes to longstanding
policies to attract foreign investment and win back broader
support from all Malaysians. These initiatives should be positive for
equity market at least in the short-term.
We raise our CPO price assumption to RM2,000/t (from RM1,600/t)
on the current high price of RM2,800/t and YTD RM2,178/t average.
We do not foresee CPO prices staying at current levels beyond 2Q due
to rising 2H production and slowing exports. The present CPO price is
81-123% above its long term historical price in USD and Ringgit
equivalents. EPS forecasts are upgraded by up to more than 100% but
company valuations remain stretched. Maintain Underweight.
Recent CPO price spike unsustainable. We view the recent 40%
spike to the RM2,800/t level from an average of RM1,950/t in 1Q09 as
too fast, too furious. Traders and speculators justified the high price on
tight inventory. We think a significant price correction in 2H is imminent
as inventory is expected to build up on slowing exports and stronger 2H
production. Also, the present CPO price is 81% and 123% above its 30-
year long term historical price in USD and Ringgit equivalents of
USD430/t and RM1,257/t respectively.
Bearish 2H price outlook. CPO production, which has disappointed in
1H09 due to poor weather and tree stress, is likely to rebound strongly
in 2H. Besides production recovery, narrowing palm oil discounts
against competing oils should slow exports. A return of normal weather
in the next planting season for South America, and increased trade
protectionism by the West on palm biodiesel are some of the other
bearish fundamental factors for CPO.
Earnings forecasts upgraded. With CPO price having averaged
RM2,178/t YTD and likely to remain high in 2Q on tight supply, we raise
our CPO price assumption from RM1,600/t to RM2,000/t for 2009-11.
This results in EPS upgrades for plantation companies under our
coverage ranging from 17% to over 100% for 2009-11.
Valuations remain expensive. We rate the sector Underweight.
Valuations remain stretched, especially for IOI and KLK which trade at
20.1x and 16.9x 2010 PER. We downgrade Asiatic to Sell (from Hold)
as the stock has soared 54% YTD and is highly leveraged on CPO
price swings. Sime has been raised to Hold (from Sell). Risks to our
price view are a weaker USD, higher energy prices, and further supply
shocks due to weather anomalies.
• 1Q09 adex data point south. Although total gross adex for Jan-Mar 09 shrank
3.9%, it was better than the 20% contraction seen after the 1997-8 Asian financial
crisis. The worst performer was the newspaper segment which saw a 9% decline
compared with a 3.7% growth for TV adex. But ad volume visibility extends only 2-3
months out, leaving question marks over advertising commitments for 2H09.
• Downbeat expectations. The lacklustre adex showing in Jan-Mar 09 ties in with
the 1Q09 results reported by Media Prima and NSTP. It also confirmed the
generally bearish expectations of the media companies since the beginning of the
year, with a few being taken by surprise by the magnitude of the deceleration. Our
previous 2009 projection of an adex range of 1.1% contraction to 6% growth does
not hold and we now revise it to 6-10% adex contraction.
• Newspapers at risk. Fundamental risks could be more severe for newspaper
companies as newspaper adspend continues to take a hit from depressed GDP
data. Although there are signs of resilience in the Malay newspaper segment, this
does not mean total immunity against the potential worsening of adex volume in the
coming months. The top Malay newspaper NST’s Harian Metro is the main winner
but this is not expected to help the group much given that Harian Metro is a small
contributor.
• Indicators leading at inflection point? We concur with our economic research
team’s view that the CLI could hit the trough in Jun-Aug 09 and that the economic
recovery from the trough is likely to take at least 12 months given the severity of the
current global crisis. Advertisers should reposition their spending for a gradual
recovery from 2010. Historical trends suggest that adex in Malaysia should recover
in 1Q2010 based on a 3-6 months’ lag period.
• End-2009 a good potential entry point. We believe end-09 will be a good re-entry
point for exposure to selected media stocks as positives such as earnings visibility,
improved sentiment of advertisers, cheaper newsprint and gradual economic
recovery are likely to kick in as catalysts then. We will monitor closely the situation
on the ground and official stats but so far, adex for the months ahead appears to be
southbound. The share prices of media companies have recovered somewhat since
the start of the year and we fail to see any additional near-term re-rating catalysts.
• Staying NEUTRAL on media sector for now. In view of this, we maintain our
NEUTRAL stance on the media sector but recommend investors to switch to Astro
(Trading Buy) which has very little exposure to adex and minimal downside risks to
its Malaysian operations where the subscriber trend could turn out to be resilient.
We remain NEUTRAL on Media Prima (MPR MK), Star Publications (STAR MK)
and Media Chinese International (MCIL MK). NSTP is kept as an
UNDERPERFORM
• Palm oil stocks at 22-month low but… Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell for the fifth
straight month to a 22-month low of 1.29m tonnes at end-Apr 09 as exports and
domestic consumption exceeded domestic palm oil production.
• … at high end of expectations. Stocks fell 5.4% mom to 1.29m tonnes, which is at
the high end of market expectations ranging from 1.2m tonnes to 1.3m tonnes. The
decline in inventory is bullish for CPO price as it suggests tight palm oil supplies for
Malaysia, a key palm oil producer.
• Stock level may have hit trough in April. Our rough modelling, which assumes
the mom growth pattern for production and exports in the month of May will be
similar to the historical 3-year average growth pattern, suggests that Malaysia’s
CPO stocks could rise 5% mom to around 1.35m tonnes in May due to higher
production and lower exports.
• CPO price forecast intact. For the first four months of the year, average CPO price
fell 41% yoy to RM2,031 per tonne. This is marginally higher than our 2009 CPO
price forecast of RM1,950 per tonne due to lower-than-expected soybean harvests
from Argentina and weaker palm oil production from Malaysia and Indonesia. We
maintain our view that CPO prices will remain firm in the next few months due to
current tight supplies and potential further downgrade in Argentina soybean
harvests but are likely to trend lower in 3Q when palm oil supply improves and
demand weakens due to the higher selling prices. That said, the recent CPO price
strength has taken us by surprise due to deteriorating soybean crop prospects for
Argentina. In view of lower-than-expected yields, Oil World has cut its current-year
soybean crop estimates for Argentina by a further 1.5m tonnes to 33m tonnes last
week or a decline of 28.5% yoy. Although we are not changing our CPO price
forecasts of RM1,950 per tonne for 2009 and RM2,150 per tonne for 2010, there is
RM100-200 potential upside to our forecast for 2009 in view of the recent
downgrade of soybean supply from Argentina.
• Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our earnings forecasts for all the Malaysian planters
remain intact, along with our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the Malaysian planters due
to their expensive valuations relative to their regional peers. Potential de-rating
catalysts for the Malaysian planters are falling CPO price in 3Q, lower crude oil price
and improved weather prospects in major planting areas. Our only pick in the
Malaysian plantation sector is Sime Darby as the stock stands to benefit from the
move towards the new FBM 30 index, has the lowest P/E multiple and foreign
shareholding among the three largest big-cap planters in Malaysia and may engage
in earnings-enhancing M&As. We maintain our preference for the Singapore-listed
planters.
• Some glimmers of hope… Rays of hope are permeating the semiconductor
industry, which probably saw most of the bad news in 1QCY09. Global chip sales
improved slightly in Mar 09 with a 30.0% yoy decline compared with a 30.1% yoy
fall in Feb 09. The book-to-bill ratio has ticked up with preliminary Mar 09 numbers
hitting 0.61x, up from Feb 09’s abysmal 0.47x. Finally, utilisation rates have scraped
bottom as some production facilities have been shuttered and inventory control is
being exercised. The end-user markets appear to have troughed, with PC and
handset sales probably hitting the bottom. Furthermore, trade credit is now
normalising. That said, stabilisation does not equate to a recovery and we believe
that restocking activity as inventory runs low is the primary factor in the improving
outlook. We still expect 2009 to be a difficult year where the typical seasonal pick up
in 3Q may not materialise given the current re-stocking activities.
• …but no full-blown recovery until 2010. We argue that a true recovery will only
take root when the global economy begins to move upwards. A meaningful and
sustained recovery will only take place when consumer sentiment and spending
spring back to life and cause ASPs to start rising. We believe that a more
convincing uptrend will take hold only from 2H10 onwards.
• Global economies to start stabilising towards year-end. Our economists believe
that the world economy will feel the full impact of the global financial crisis this year.
Although the process of sorting out the financial system will take time and
resources, the cumulative effects of sizeable fiscal stimuli and aggressive monetary
easing globally will work to provide some stability. Recent global indicators are less
negative. Considering the extremely low base this year, global growth should pick
up in 2010 but will probably fall short of its long-run average growth rate of 3.7%.
• Upgrade sector to TRADING BUY. While the fundamentals for the sector remain
uncertain, we think that downside to share prices is limited as valuations are still
below trough levels. We upgrade the sector from Underperform to TRADING BUY.
Furthermore, in line with our market strategy, we think that investors’ risk appetite is
increasing and higher beta plays such as semicon should be in vogue. Investors
should start picking up semicon stocks ahead of the recovery of the sector as
historically, the share prices for both MPI and Unisem cratered 13-18 months before
the upturn of the sector. Sector catalysts include a) a sooner-than-expected revival
of end-user demand and b) a faster-than-expected economic recovery.
• Upgrade Unisem and MPI to Trading Buy. In tandem with the sector upgrade, we
upgrade MPI and Unisem from Underperform to Trading Buy. We raise our target
prices for both after cutting our discounts to their 5-year historical average by 30-
60% pts to 20-40% for Unisem and MPI respectively. We assign a lower discount to
Unisem, our top pick, as its higher liquidity and beta make it a better play on a
market rebound. Re-rating catalysts include a) qoq improvement in earnings, b)
revival of end demand and c) the higher betas on offer.
We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in 2009, in line with the projected 3%
real GDP contraction. Transactions could fall 20-30% or as much as 35-50% in the
worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian financial
crisis. However, most major developers have pushed out innovative financing
schemes to lure buyers. Response has been mixed, with good response garnered by
the likes of SP Setia (RM500m sales) and Mah Sing (RM170m sales) but lacklustre
sales for many other developers
More excitement ahead. The eventual award of the RM1.3b Pahang-
Selangor raw water transfer tunnel works on 28 Apr confirms that the
new administration sees the urgency for construction in stimulating the
economy. Langat 2 should be next in the limelight, together with the
massive Klang Valley LRT system. We expect more positive news flow
over the near-term. Continue to Overweight Construction.
Langat 2 next. Langat 2, the downstream portion of the water transfer
project, comprises a 2,180 mld treatment plant and the distribution
pipelines. The estimated RM5b construction contract was awarded in
Feb ’08 to Kumpulan Darul Ehsan, which holds 60% of Kumpulan
Perangsang Selangor (KPS). As KPS does not have a major
construction arm, we think that potential beneficiaries are Gamuda, Loh
& Loh and Taliworks, which have had working experience with, and/or
are affiliated to KPS via shareholdings.
Klang Valley LRT to follow. Local companies have been invited to
submit “expressions of interest” for the LRT extension and upgrading
works, with the government keen to see construction works start within
the next 3-4 months, according to today’s Edge. The extension works
could cost RM7b, including RM1b to buy rolling stocks. Our view is that
the project may be parcelled out and experienced contractors like IJM,
Gamuda, UEM Builders and YTL Corp may bid as turnkey contractors.
Overweight Construction. We continue to expect mid-sized projects
to lead the momentum of construction sector recovery under the fiscal
stimulus. Meanwhile, the inter-state water transfer (including Langat 2)
and Klang Valley LRT extension are also two priority projects under the
9th Malaysia Plan with works expected to start before the decade turns.
IJM, WCT and HSL remain on our Buy list. Meanwhile, Gamuda is a
strong contender for the two mega water and LRT projects. Our Hold
call on the stock is under review, with upward revision potential.
• Extended wedge formation. We were expecting the DJIA to break down from its
wedge formation last week but it continued to rise further towards the 8,300 levels
before correcting end of last week. The Index could still be in an extended wedge
formation and the breakdown the wedge support trend line at the 8,100pt would
confirm the end of this pattern.
• If we are wrong… If we are wrong, our alternative wave count shows that DJIA
could have already started its minor wave “c” up leg after completion of the wave
“b” triangle consolidation since early Apr last week (refer to chart below). This wave
count is supported by the breakout of the major resistance trend line since Nov-08.
Confirmation of this alternative wave count if DJIA breaks above 8,300pt.
• US banking stocks remains in consolidation phase. If banking stocks are
leading the market, DJIA is still in an extended wedge formation. The KBW Bank
Index has just broken down below its uptrend channel support trend line since
early-Mar. This indicates further consolidation in the immediate term for the Index.
• Crude oil uptrend is not over. We were looking for crude oil prices to break down
last week but the price has since bounced back above the US$53/barrel levels.
This has negated our preferred wave count and a likely “double zig-zag” is taking
place, targeting the US$60-70/barrel levels in 2H09.
• Channel breakout. MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) only experienced a mild
correction last week and closed strong for the week at 336. The Index just broke
out of its channel resistance trend line since Nov-08. This is a positive sign if the
Index is able to hold above this trend line over the next few weeks.
• Still expect consolidation. However, we still expect Asian equity markets to
consolidate over the next few weeks to build up a support base before charging up
in June-July. If RSI breaks out of its current consolidation range, this would likely
indicate that Asia has kick started its next up leg towards the June-Jul period.
A milestone for the sector. We take a positive view of this news as it is a significant
milestone for the water sector. The timing of the award was a slight surprise as we
had expected the recent cabinet reshuffle to result in a slight delay for the project
award following the award of the letter of intent (LOI) to the Shimizu consortium a few
months back. The water transfer project is the first mega job to be rolled out under the
9MP after the announcement of the second stimulus package in Mar 09. Our channel
checks indicate that the tunnelling job will move fairly quickly from here on and the
notification to start work should be received in a matter of days. Once site possession
is obtained, major resource mobilisation will be underway, including Shimizu’s
positioning of the tunnel boring machine (TBM) near the Titiwangsa range. We think
that actual work could start within a month, suggesting a mid-2014 timeframe for
completion of the project.
No details on scope of works. Details of the scope of works are not available. IJM’s
share of works based on its 20% stake works out to RM260m or just RM26m profit
enhancement assuming a 10% pretax margin. We are not revising our earnings
forecasts as the RM260m share of works is already part of our assumption for new
contracts for IJM. That said, the award of the project raises IJM’s profile as it is one of
the main contractors of the country’s largest water infrastructure project.
Focus will now shift to the remaining major components of the water transfer project,
i.e. the Kelau dam and the Langat 2 water treatment plant. We expect the feasibility
studies for both to be concluded sometime in early 2H09, making way for the
tendering process. We gather that the Shimizu consortium is eyeing the Kelau dam
job which has an estimated value of roughly double the tunnelling job. This suggests
that IJM’s potential share of works could be more than RM500m.
This document provides a sector update and analysis of the media industry in Malaysia. Some key points:
1) Advertising expenditure (adex) in March 2009 contracted only 1% year-over-year, a much better showing than previous months, driven by a 13% increase in TV adex.
2) However, the analyst maintains a cautious outlook due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and lack of major events in 2009 that boosted adex in 2008.
3) The analyst downgrades their recommendation on Media Prima and Star to Sell, as their share prices have risen ahead of underlying fundamentals in the weak economy. The media sector outlook is downgraded to Underweight.
The banking sector in Malaysia saw stable loan growth of 10.9% year-over-year in March 2009, driven partly by a 20-30% jump in loans to government agencies and non-bank financial institutions. However, leading loan indicators remained subdued and loan growth is expected to slow significantly to 2-3% in 2009 due to weaker economic conditions. Non-performing loan ratios continued to improve in March. The report maintains a neutral outlook on Malaysian banks, expecting them to perform better than anticipated despite the economic downturn.
BANKING Mar 09 Statistics Some ResilienceBoyboy cute
Positive signs. Loan disbursements, repayments, applications and
approvals rebounded with strong double-digit MoM growth, flattish-tolow-
teens YoY growth, and in absolute term, were back to pre-Aug/Sep
’08 levels. Absolute NPLs continued to inch lower, mainly from the
working capital segment. Nonetheless, it is early to tell whether these
are sustainable as global fundamentals remain weak.
Strong loan disbursements and repayments. Banking loans (net of
repayments) grew to RM733.9m in Mar ’09 (+0.6% MoM, +10.9% YoY)
on expansion in both household (+0.4% MoM, +8.8% YoY) and
business loans (+0.9% MoM, +9.5% YoY). The pace of disbursements
and repayments was strong (disbursements: +27.4% MoM, +9% YoY;
repayments: +15.7% MoM, +4.8% YoY), mainly for working capital.
YTD loans growth was +1% (household: +1.5%, business: +0.5%).
Forward indicators bounced MoM but still flattish YoY. Loan
applications and approvals also rebounded strongly: +24.3% MoM and
+35.3% MoM respectively. On a YoY comparison, loan applications
were up 4.7%, driven by household loan applications (+21.5%), mainly
for home purchases, which off-set lower applications from businesses
(-11%). Overall loan approvals were rather flattish YoY, with approvals
up for household loans (+12.6%) but down for business loans (-13%).
Absolute NPLs contracted further. Absolute gross NPLs continued
to inch lower, at a slightly higher pace of -3.7% MoM to RM33.6b (Feb
‘09: -0.04% MoM). On a 3-month comparison (see table in page 4),
the lower NPLs came mainly from the working capital segment,
reflecting perhaps resilient business strength. Meanwhile, net NPL ratio
was little changed at 2.24% (Feb ‘09: 2.23%).
Remain Underweight. YTD loans growth, if sustained, should lead to
the upper end of our 2-3% loans growth forecast for 2009. Our other
assumption is for absolute NPLs to expand by 50% YoY by end-2009,
leading to a projected 10% decline in combined net profit for 2009.
While loans quality was resilient in Mar ’09, we remain concerned over
rising NPLs – our analysis shows a 3-6 months interval from GDP
trough to NPL peak. The other main risk is a protracted economic
slowdown leading to rising unemployment and asset deflation.
This document summarizes the Malaysian government's recent liberalization measures for the country's financial services sector. Key points include:
1) Allowing up to 7 new licenses for foreign commercial and Islamic banks, with 4 in 2009 and 3 in 2011 that can be wholly foreign owned.
2) Increasing the foreign equity limit for domestic insurance, takaful, and investment banks to 70% from 49% previously.
3) Providing greater operational flexibility for foreign commercial banks, such as allowing microfinance branches and new regular branches.
4) The changes follow Malaysia's gradual "managed approach" to financial sector liberalization outlined in its 2001 Financial Sector Master Plan.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
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Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
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Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Economic Current in April
1. April 2009
Todd Hale
James Russo
Jonathan Banks
Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
2. Nielsen Global Scorecard
• Consumers within their respective countries appear to be in a holding pattern as markets digest
evidence of a possible bottoming of economic weakness.
• No doubt conditions remain tough for global consumers, but levels of decline are moderating .
KPI Summary GDP
10% 2007
Chg vs.
Jan Feb 2008
Previous 8% 2009 E
09 09
Month
6%
Brazil
4%
Canada
2%
China
France 0%
Germany -2%
India -4%
Eastern Europe Asia LatAm North America Western Europe
Italy
• The UBS Global Economics team now expects 2009 world
Russia
GDP to contract -0.4%.
Spain
• Output is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2009.
United
Kingdom • Recovery will plateau at a level well below potential and a
United far cry from past recoveries.
States
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: <= -4%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between -1% and -4%
3. Global Top-Line:
Weakness but moderation
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ‘09 ;09
Nielsen Market Index
Moderation in declining unit sales driven by Germany and Italy
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Dollar Value sales growing but at a slower rate
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands? Consumers moving to store brands, (driven by US, France, Italy & Spain)
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels? Noticeable shifts in value channels, even in BRIC
Are retailers selling more
on promotion? Promotional activity holding steady
Are consumers shopping
more frequently? Evidence of trips moving from neutral to negative
Are consumers spending Globally consumers demonstrating stocking up behavior
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^ Consumer confidence drops 7 pts globally
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
4. February Top-Line:
Confidence low, Value driving sales
US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR RU IN CN
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving
to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Very Negative: <= -4%
5. Consumer Confidence:
Weakening but optimism exists
Do you think your country is in an economic recession?
Percent saying yes.
120%
100%
80%
60%
98% 91% 95% 95% 95% 92% 91% 88%
40% 77% 77% 72%
20% 35%
0%
U.K. Canada U.S. Spain France Russia Italy Germany 53 country Brazil India China
avg
Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months?
Percent saying yes.
60%
50%
40%
30% 56%
20%
29% 32%
22% 24% 24% 22% 23%
10% 19% 18%
13% 11%
0%
U.K. Canada U.S. Spain France Russia Italy Germany 53 country Brazil India China
avg
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
6. Global Consumers:
Top 3 actions consumers are
taking to save
US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR RU IN CN
Cut down out of home
entertainment
65% 63% 58% 65% 60% 65% 65% 52% 37%
Cut down on take away
meals
64%
Spend less on new
clothes
63% 55% 65% 66% 68% 72% 62% 71% 65% 61%
Switch to cheaper
grocery brands
55% 63% 69% 68% 63%
Cut down on phone
expenses
74%
Save on gas and
electricity
71% 71% 53%
Cut back on
holidays/vacations
50%
Seek better deals on
credit cards, loans etc
37%
Delay technology
upgrades
54% 40%
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index across 53 countries – April 2009
8. North American
Summary
• What You Need To Know:
– February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across
fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on
shopping trips in the U.S..
– Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S.,
they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as
many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of
the year
– There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales
across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since
August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened.
– Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still
holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value
through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature
price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL
remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales.
– Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping
continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store,
they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices.
– Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of
Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
9. Western Europe
Summary
• What You Need to know:
– While the economies of Western Europe remain solidly within a recessionary cycle, the
doom and gloom reported in the press is not widely observed in Nielsen data which is
skewed towards consumable items.
– Food typically accounts for 15% of household expenditure. Therefore, the grocery
industry whilst not recession-proof, is recession resistant, and indeed gains when
diners opt for a ‘big night in’ instead of a ‘big night out'. The for-profit sector of food-
service has come under increasing pressure.
– Shopping frequency restored after visible decline during the inflation spike of 2007.
– Manufacturers revived their promotional programs to capture the promotion seekers for
their brands.
– The progress of private label is quite disparate across categories and countries. The
progress is essentially in line with the baseline growth we have witnessed over the past
few years.
– Across Western Europe, with the exception of Spain, mired in a steep decline, the
amounts per trip has shown respectable increases of 1% to 4% growth
10. BRIC Summary
• What You Need to know:
– Consumers in fragmented retail markets are increasingly moving to value oriented
trade retailers.
– The local grocer in India, although still dominant, is seeing a steady erosion of
customer base and share of spends.
– Consumers’ acceptance of the supermarket/ hypermarket (S/H) channel has kept
pace with the retailers store expansion.
– In India, modern trade focus shifts to right sizing, but growth plan on hypermarkets
continue to be on track.
– Consumers in Russia are becoming more price conscious, shoppers are looking for
the stores which can provide them wider choices and everything they need in one
shop. Hypermarkets and discounters appear to be well positioned to deliver on
these consumer preferences.
– Increasingly Russian retailers are switching to assortment optimization. This desired
anti-crisis strategy remains affective in the current situation.
– While crisis has become a challenge for many, it has opened up new opportunities
on the market both for the existing players and for the newcomers. It is a good
moment for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and in the long term perspective we
expect the growth of retail concentration in Russia.
12. USA Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
13. Key USA Economic
Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 2.0% 1.1% -2.2% 2.2%
Consumer Expenditure 2.8% 0.2% -1.8% 2.1%
Inflation Rate 2.9% 3.8% -0.2% 1.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.8% 8.5% 8.6%
Savings Rate 0.6% 1.8% 4.8% 5.3%
Rising Unemployment and Declining Consumer Expenditures Has US Economy in
Worst Shape in at Least a Quarter Century
Source: UBS
14. Canada Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
15. Key Canada
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 2.7% 0.6% -0.4% 2.0%
Consumer Expenditure 4.5% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0%
Inflation Rate 2.1% 2.4% 0.7% 2.4%
Unemployment Rate 6.0% 6.1% 7.2% 7.6%
Savings Rate 2.7% 3.6% 4.7% 4.7%
Rising Unemployment and Lower Consumer Expenditures Should Lead to GDP
Contraction in 2009 in Canada
Source: UBS
16. France Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
17. Key France
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 2.1% 0.8% -1.4% 0.6%
Consumer Expenditure 2.5% 1.1% -0.1% 0.7%
Inflation Rate 1.6% 3.2% 0.6% 1.9%
Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.3% 8.5% 8.9%
Savings Rate 15.8% 16.2% 16.7% 16.8%
Record Savings Rates Lead to Lower Consumer Expenditures and Contracting GDP
Growth in France
Source: UBS
18. Germany Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
19. Key Germany
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 2.6% 1.0% -2.7% 0.8%
Consumer Expenditure -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.1%
Inflation Rate 2.3% 2.7% 0.4% 2.0%
Unemployment Rate 8.9% 7.7% 8.5% 9.5%
Savings Rate 10.9% 11.4% 12.5% 12.6%
German Unemployment Continues to Rise More than Expected, Likely to Reach 9%
by Year End
Source: UBS
20. UK Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
21. Key UK
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 3.0% 0.7% -3.0% 0.5%
Consumer Expenditure 3.0% 1.4% -3.1% -0.2%
Inflation Rate 2.3% 3.6% 1.1% 1.6%
Unemployment Rate 2.5% 3.3% 6.0% 7.4%
Savings Rate 2.2% 1.0% 5.2% 7.7%
4Q08 GDP Contracts 1.5%, UK Now Facing First Recession in 16 Years
Source: UBS
22. Italy Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
23. Key Italy
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 1.4% -0.5% -1.9% 0.4%
Consumer Expenditure 1.5% -0.4% -0.4% 0.5%
Inflation Rate 2.0% 3.5% 1.7% 2.0%
Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.7% 7.9% 8.5%
Savings Rate 9.8% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2%
Unemployment Rate Expected to Jump in Italy During 09, Leading to Recession
Source: UBS
24. Spain Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
25. Key Spain
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 3.7% 1.0% -2.7% 0.0%
Consumer Expenditure 3.4% 0.4% -2.4% 0.1%
Inflation Rate 2.8% 4.1% 1.5% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate 8.3% 11.0% 14.8% 16.5%
Savings Rate 10.4% 9.2% 11.5% 11.2%
Trouble Ahead in Spain as Unemployment Rises Rapidly and More Bad News
Expected from Real Estate Market
Source: UBS
26. Brazil Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
27. Key Brazil
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 5.7% 5.1% 1.2% 3.7%
Consumer Expenditure - - - -
Inflation Rate 4.5% 5.9% 4.9% 4.5%
Unemployment Rate - - - -
Savings Rate - - - -
Still Forecasting Brazil GDP Growth in 2009, But Growth Rate Likely to Slow
Source: UBS
28. Russia Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
29. Key Russia
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 8.1% 7.2% 3.5% 4.5%
Consumer Expenditure 12.8% 13.0% 6.0% 5.0%
Inflation Rate 9.0% 14.0% 10.9% 8.0%
Unemployment Rate - - - -
Savings Rate - - - -
Depreciation of the Ruble Leading to Rapid Slowdown of the Russian Economy
Source: UBS
30. India Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
31. Key India
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 9.0% 6.0% 5.1% 7.4%
Consumer Expenditure - - - -
Inflation Rate 6.2% 8.8% 6.0% 6.5%
Unemployment Rate - - - -
Savings Rate - - - -
India GDP Growth Likely to Slow as Consumption and Exports Decline
Source: UBS
32. China Summary
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Nielsen Market Index
Volume*
Nielsen Market Index
Value**
Are consumers moving to
Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to
value channels?
Are retailers selling
more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping
more frequently?
Are consumers spending
more per trip?
Nielsen Global
Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO
Negative: between -1% and -4% **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO
^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and
Very Negative: <= -4% is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
33. Key China
Economic Measures
2007 2008 2009E 2010E
GDP 13.0% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5%
Consumer Expenditure 10.6% 8.5% 7.0% 7.8%
Inflation Rate 4.8% 5.9% 0.2% 1.0%
Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5%
Savings Rate - - - -
Stimulus Policy Measures in China Could Reaccelerate Growth in 2H09
Source: UBS
34. Contact List
• United States:
– James Russo, james.russo@nielsen.com
– Todd Hale, todd.hale@nielsen.com
• Western Europe:
– Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, jean-jacques.vandenheede@nielsen.com
– Jonathan Banks, jonathan.banks@nielsen.com
• Canada:
– Carman Allison, carman.allison@nielsen.com
• Russia:
– Natalia Ignatyeva, Natalia.ignatyeva@nielsen.com
• India:
– Jayashree Janardhanan, Jayashree.Janardhanan@nielsen.com
• China:
– Phoebe Lam, phoebe.lam@nielsen.com