Sxsw tree slideshare
- 1. Huge thanks to: StephenStrong, Michael Leis, Robbie Whiting, Gareth Kay, Eric Goodwin, Eric Reiss, Jay Pattisal, Ed Cotton, David Terry, Karl Turnbull, Joe Gray, Mark Pollard, Michael Fassnacht, Chris Miller, Nick Bilton, Faris Yakob, Griffin Farley, William Charnock, Abby Covert, Eddy Hodgson, Al Gross, Kevin Drew Davis, John Kenny, Steve Himel, Finn Brunton, Russ Unger, Eric Vogeleer, Kristin Cavallo, Peter Totman, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Emily Brennan, Rad Tollett, Scott Johnson, Dave Knoepfle, Nat Jones, Shane McDaniel, Ric Johnson, Judy Immel, Bill Taylor, Dawn Baskin, Claire Grinton, Patrick Moorhead, Bud Caddell, Stephanie Kelly, Soton Rosanwo, Anna Parker, Marc Wilson, Leo Ryan, Jason Mitton, Mary Knight, Tom Trenta, Dave Clark, Sam Yagan, Shane McDaniel, Anna
- 2. Will your technologysucceed? Ask a tree.
- 3. "Didn't anyone everstop to consider that the machismo laden boast of the venture capital community that their model works well, when 90% of VC bets fail, might, just perhaps, be a little too forgiving? -Pip Coburn, The Change Function
- 4. Getting even atiny bit better at making the right bets in the IdeasxPeoplexTechnology space would save us a huge amount of anguish and resource.
- 5. How are wemaking decisions on what technologies will resonate and be adopted? Game Designers Mobile Marketers Interviewed 48 developers Digital brand successful strategists UX Experts IxPxT professionals Tech analysts Programmers working in the Venture App Developers Capitalists space Game Social media theorists experts
- 6. Q: How doesit feel to you, personally, to work in this space right now?
- 10. Why does itfeel so exciting/overwhelming? Probably because technology (the wind) is causing human behavior (the tree) to change pretty dramatically and erratically right now. And that makes guessing the future really tough.
- 11. Q: Will technology_____ thrive, survive, or wither?
- 12. We’re basically lookingat 6 things: “My gut reaction. Is it cool, yes or no?” Personal reactions Spreadability - am I willing to tell my friends about this? Spreadability Are there similar things in the market that are working? Behavior How big is the behavioral change weʼre asking people to make? Barriers Will another, bigger player replicate it? Business dynamics Does it help me do something Iʼm motivated to do in the first place? Human nature
- 13. And perhaps notin the right order What we consider 1st What we consider last
- 14. Our personal reactionsdefinitely matter. But beware. We are becoming less and less like our audience with each passing year.
- 16. Q: Be totallyhonest. When you first heard about American Idol, did you think it would ever be as successful as it eventually became? Yes. I could see from the beginning it was gonna be huge. 19% No. I admit I'm surprised it caught on like it did. 80% * Informal poll conducted among 88 marketing professionals who ought to be better at predicting this stuff. 1/2011
- 17. “There is greatdanger in assuming that you are anything like your audience.” - Eddy Hodson
- 18. "I would neverhave thought people would ever tweet about mundane sh*t and that other people would read it and like it, so I never get too cocky" - David Terry - on the wisdom of W+K philosophy "walking in stupid everyday"
- 19. We are becomingless and less like our audience with each passing year because... “The next huge step forward in technology isn’t a technology, it’s mainstream people actually being able to use what’s already out there.” - Steve Himel
- 20. So far, introducingtech has been able to talk mostly to “1st 3rd” consumers, who are similar to us The “1st 3rd” Smartphone penetration Tablet penetration
- 21. “We desperately wantto work in the future. And we need to be careful about that.” - Russ Unger
- 22. Going forward, connectingwith the “2nd 3rd” becomes crucial. And they are very different. The “2nd 3rd” Smartphone penetration Tablet penetration
- 23. “Now that wehave progress so rapid that it can be observed from year to year, no one calls it progress. People call it change, and rather than yearn for it, the brace themselves against its force.” - Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now
- 24. OK. So Ican't just use my own feelings as a proxy. I'll study the actual behavior of my audience in the space. That way I'll know what they'll embrace and adopt.
- 26. "Current "Behavior is behavior is human nature constrained by filtered through opportunity." VS technological barriers that could disappear - Clay Shirkey tomorrow." - Nick Bilton
- 27. Your audience's currentbehavior is only really useful for what it tells you about their wants, needs and nature.
- 28. "Somewhat successful technologiesare built off of observing how people behave. Really successful technologies are built off understanding what people need. - Abby Covert
- 29. Pay more attentionto the roots Social forces (like technology) Rapid change Human behavior (the tree) Changes quickly and erratically Human nature (the roots) Change VERY slowly, if at all
- 30. “Unless it connectsto people on a deep, visceral and human level, it won’t work.” - Jon Steel
- 32. OK, so howdo I define human nature?
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- 34. Growth Achievement Inspiration Adventure Optimism ? Freedom Virtue Self Other Focused Focused Indulgence Responsibility Power Caution Belonging Dependence Stability
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- 36. ? “All human actionshave one or more of theses even causes: chance, nature, compulsion, habit, reason, passion , desire ." -Aristotle
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- 38. When it comesto technology, evolutionary psychology can be massively insightful
- 39. Basic human natureand drives have remained constant for a very long time. A handful of those drives seem to lie behind much of our Internet behavior. The fact that religion has called out, named and forbidden behaviors suggests that powerful elements of human nature drive them.
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- 47. But there's abrighter side to our nature that drives a lot of our behavior too.
- 49. Survival Reproduction Kin investment Reciprocity
- 50. Or brains evolvedwith specific structures designed for empathy and reciprocation.
- 51. This image hasbeen altered to protect the innocent Richard Dawkins My mom is having surgery tomorrow morning. Please keep her in your thoughts.
- 52. The genius ofFacebook is in making the reciprocal relationships we need easier. Thinking of you I can't exactly hit the "like" button here to reciprocate now, can I? What if Facebook could make other reciprocation "like button-easy"
- 53. The skills andstructures we evolved for face-to-face reciprocation are challenged by online anonymity.
- 54. One last deadlysin. It's so powerful in driving technology- related behavior that it gets its own section.
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- 56. The genius ofhuman nature is that we're lazy. We got brilliant at figuring out how to avoid doing stuff by inventing something to do it for us." - Jamie Shuttleworth
- 57. So what doesall of this mean to us? Think of the tree. And remember four simple rules:
- 58. One: think aboutthe roots first. What fundamental human desire or need is this technology fulfilling? Start there, instead of checking there later.
- 59. Two: When welook at behavior, remember it’s probably constrained. What’s relevant about behavior is that it indicates something in our nature that drives it, not the behavior itself
- 60. Three: Go broadand deep into human nature. The more of it you appeal to, the more engaging the experience.
- 61. Four: Remember “we’resimpler creatures than we’d like to think.”* Appeal to as basic a part of our nature as you can. Give us superpowers. - Mark Pollard
- 62. Five: Don’t makeguesses about human nature if you don’t have to. Generate multiple expressions of your idea, and let people reveal their nature through their behavior. Then iterate and double down on success.
- 63. Huge thanks to: StephenStrong, Michael Leis, Robbie Whiting, Gareth Kay, Eric Goodwin, Eric Reiss, Jay Pattisal, Ed Cotton, David Terry, Karl Turnbull, Joe Gray, Mark Pollard, Michael Fassnacht, Chris Miller, Nick Bilton, Faris Yakob, Griffin Farley, William Charnock, Abby Covert, Eddy Hodgson, Al Gross, Kevin Drew Davis, John Kenny, Steve Himel, Finn Brunton, Russ Unger, Eric Vogeleer, Kristin Cavallo, Peter Totman, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Emily Brennan, Rad Tollett, Scott Johnson, Dave Knoepfle, Nat Jones, Shane McDaniel, Ric Johnson, Judy Immel, Bill Taylor, Dawn Baskin, Claire Grinton, Patrick Moorhead, Bud Caddell, Stephanie Kelly, Soton Rosanwo, Anna Parker, Marc Wilson, Leo Ryan, Jason Mitton, Mary Knight, Tom Trenta, Dave Clark, Sam Yagan, Shane McDaniel, Anna