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A new book by Victor W. Hwang and Greg Horowitt
Meet the Gauches…
1994 Professors Susan and John Gauch at the University of
     Kansas received a $15,000 grant to build a meta-
     search technology. They called it Jayhawk Search.
1995 A spectacular success. 300,000 users per month.
     Moved to dedicated server. Launched company
     called ProFusion.
  1996 1,000,000 users per month.
     1997 PC Magazine named Meta-Search Engine of
          the Year
        1998 Company attempted to grow. Entered
             into strategic partnerships. Recruited
             business management.
           1999 Eventual failure.
By the time it was done, the Gauches
earned a grand total of about $100,000.
What are the lessons
of the Anti-Google?
Neoclassical economists say… “Meh.”
Individual stories are no big deal. The macro-system
works when self-interested rational actors compete.

                                 Eugene Fama &
                                 Efficient Market
                                           Theory
Cluster theorists say… “Natch.”
It’s all easy to explain. Micro-level enterprises only
thrive when pools of talent are concentrated
geographically.

                               Michael Porter &
                                 Cluster Theory
But there is a huge disconnect
between theory and reality.
The neoclassical model does not
account for the serious difficulties faced
by the Gauches based in Kansas…

Massive lack of access to customers,
talent, capital, markets, managers, etc.
Yet the traditional Silicon Valley “cluster” model…
…does not resemble real-world startups today either.
An exhaustive study of 1,604 companies…


“The results indicate that firm innovation in
urban Norway is mainly driven by global
pipelines, rather than local interaction. … Local
and even national interaction seems to be
irrelevant for innovation.”
           Rune Dahl Fitjar and Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, “When local interaction does not
           suffice: Sources of firm innovation in urban Norway”, February 2011
So what’s going on?!
The world needs a new
paradigm that is both
descriptive and prescriptive.

Billions of lives, hundreds of
billions of dollars at stake.
The Development of Economic Thought?

  “…the understanding that principles that
  underlie biological systems are the same
  principles that underlie all living systems.”

                James Kenneth Galbraith
Can we now weave together a tapestry of
inter-disciplinary ideas to create a new
                                                                                   Frederick
“bottom-up” economic model?                                                          Jackson
                                                                                      Turner
          Ade                            W. Edwards
          Mabogunje                      Deming                       Robert
                                                                      Sapolsky
               Annalee
               Saxenian                   Danah Boyd
                              Hernando
Sean
                              de Soto                                         fMRI imaging
Gourley


              James                                            Ronald Coase
              Fowler                     “Design Thinking”
E.O. Wilson                              (Rolf Faste, et al)                  Ilya Prigogine

                                                                       Richard
                    Francis                                            Thaler
                 Fukuyama
A different approach to innovation growth…
      Plantation            Rainforest
While plants are harvested most
efficiently on farms,
weeds sprout best in Rainforests.
For a new species                   For a new startup
     temperature, humidity,              capital, entrepreneurs,
      precipitation, sunlight,       laws/norms, ideas/inventions,
soil/nutrients, other flora/fauna            talent, markets
A radical shift in perspective.
Neoclassical economics has dominated our thinking
on systems for over 100 years.
The real world.
Not gears, but human beings.

                    Landlord

       Land                     Engineer

       Labor
                                           Output
      Capital
                 Investor
   Technology?
                            Scientist
And real human beings are separated
… by geography, culture, language, social networks, and
lack of trust.
This happens across entire systems.



             Across an entire system
The Secret of Innovation Ecosystems


  Rainforests thrive because of culture
  that overcomes social system
                Across an entire barriers and

  fosters a special style of collaboration
  between people…
The Innovation
Ecosystem             Ideas




                    Opportunity


           Talent                 Capital
It’s not just creative destruction.
Far more important—and harder—
is creative reassembly.
Like a fractal equation in nature…


              Across an entire system
…what is the micro cultural pattern that
generates macro phenomena in places
like Silicon Valley?
The culture of the American frontier
required strangers to trust fast, or die…
Rules of the Rainforest
Rule #1: Break rules and dream.
Rule #2: Open doors and listen.
Rule #3: Trust and be trusted.
Rule #4: Experiment and iterate together.
Rule #5: Seek fairness, not advantage.
Rule #6: Err, fail, and persist.
Rule #7: Pay it forward.
How do humans change behavior?



          Across an entire system
Tools to Build Rainforests
Tool #1: Learn by Doing
Tool #2: Enhance Diversity
Tool #3: Celebrate Role Models and Peer Interaction
Tool #4: Build Tribes of Trust
Tool #5: Create Social Feedback Loops
Tool #6: Make Social Contracts Explicit
• are the entrepreneurs?
•Who has the reputation, resources and                •Who are the service providers?                                                                   •What is the regulatory environment for
commitment to lead new initiatives?                   •Who are the inventors?                                                                           innovation?
•Who will champion new initiatives within             •Who are the capital providers?                                                                   •What legal/bureaucratic barriers stand in
their own organizations?                              •Who are the support organizations?                                                               the way of entrepreneurship?
•How can leaders and champions be more                •What is the role of government?                                                                  •What widespread social norms surround
inclusive?                                            •Who are the other key participants in the innovation ecosystems?                                 the innovation ecosystem?




                                                  •What are people already doing to stimulate          •Where, when and how do stakeholders
•What resources are available to aspiring         innovation/entrepreneurship?
                                                                                                                                                          •Who are the local entrepreneurs that have
                                                                                                       interact?                                          built successful companies?
entrepreneurs (knowledge, mentorship,             •How are these people collaborating with             •How do ideas, talent and capital come
cloud hosting, etc.)?                             each other?
                                                                                                                                                          •Who are the local entrepreneurs that
                                                                                                       together?
•What sources of capital are there in the         •What activities drive participation in the          •What are the lines of communication
                                                                                                                                                          haven’t yet been successful and what can
marketplace?                                                                                                                                              we learn from their failures?
                                                  community?                                           between partners?
•How does this capital flow and interact with     •What events create ‘buzz’ and generate                                                                 •What regions have similar attributes and
growing businesses?
                                                                                                       •How do members of the community                   resources?
                                                  interest?                                            collaborate with each other?
•What is the volume and quality of talent in                                                                                                              •What organizations have shared
the labor pool?
                                                                                                       •How does the community engage external            visions/values?
                                                                                                       or global partners?                                •Are there other regions with successful
•What are the main sources of innovative                                                               •How does the community encourage recruit
ideas/discoveries/inventions?                                                                                                                             innovation ecosystems that we could learn
                                                                                                       new constituents?
•What resources are available to service and                                                           •How do young people get involved?
                                                                                                                                                          from or emulate?
support organizations that interact with
entrepreneurs (workforce training, etc.)?
                                                                                                       •What forums exist that allow the breakdown
                                                                                                       of social and professional hierarchies?




                                                                                                          •Where do people come from?
 •What is the density and quality of service providers (law, IP, consulting, real estate, etc.)?          •What are their value systems?
 •What boundary spanning organizations exist?                                                             •What are their motivations (money, reputation, lifestyle, self expression, etc.)?
 •What is the local level of serial entrepreneurship?                                                     •What are the ‘amenities of place’?
 •What is the density and quality of physical infrastructure (airports, internet connections, etc.)?      •How do we create and maintain a sense of urgency?
 •What are the core sectors of the local economy?                                                         •What kind of innovative social networks exist already?
 •What are the strongest regional comparative advantages?                                                 •How do people deal with uncertainty, risk or randomness?
                                                                                                          •How is failure perceived?
                                                                                                          •Do people build for perfection or iteration?
The Power of Two People



        Across an entire system




Multiplied Millions of Times
A “Davos for doers” who are discovering
how to build Rainforests…




   www.innosummit.com
Across an entire system




www.therainforestbook.com

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The Rainforest

  • 1. A new book by Victor W. Hwang and Greg Horowitt
  • 3. 1994 Professors Susan and John Gauch at the University of Kansas received a $15,000 grant to build a meta- search technology. They called it Jayhawk Search.
  • 4. 1995 A spectacular success. 300,000 users per month. Moved to dedicated server. Launched company called ProFusion. 1996 1,000,000 users per month. 1997 PC Magazine named Meta-Search Engine of the Year 1998 Company attempted to grow. Entered into strategic partnerships. Recruited business management. 1999 Eventual failure.
  • 5. By the time it was done, the Gauches earned a grand total of about $100,000.
  • 6. What are the lessons of the Anti-Google?
  • 7. Neoclassical economists say… “Meh.” Individual stories are no big deal. The macro-system works when self-interested rational actors compete. Eugene Fama & Efficient Market Theory
  • 8. Cluster theorists say… “Natch.” It’s all easy to explain. Micro-level enterprises only thrive when pools of talent are concentrated geographically. Michael Porter & Cluster Theory
  • 9. But there is a huge disconnect between theory and reality.
  • 10. The neoclassical model does not account for the serious difficulties faced by the Gauches based in Kansas… Massive lack of access to customers, talent, capital, markets, managers, etc.
  • 11. Yet the traditional Silicon Valley “cluster” model…
  • 12. …does not resemble real-world startups today either.
  • 13. An exhaustive study of 1,604 companies… “The results indicate that firm innovation in urban Norway is mainly driven by global pipelines, rather than local interaction. … Local and even national interaction seems to be irrelevant for innovation.” Rune Dahl Fitjar and Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, “When local interaction does not suffice: Sources of firm innovation in urban Norway”, February 2011
  • 15. The world needs a new paradigm that is both descriptive and prescriptive. Billions of lives, hundreds of billions of dollars at stake.
  • 16. The Development of Economic Thought? “…the understanding that principles that underlie biological systems are the same principles that underlie all living systems.” James Kenneth Galbraith
  • 17. Can we now weave together a tapestry of inter-disciplinary ideas to create a new Frederick “bottom-up” economic model? Jackson Turner Ade W. Edwards Mabogunje Deming Robert Sapolsky Annalee Saxenian Danah Boyd Hernando Sean de Soto fMRI imaging Gourley James Ronald Coase Fowler “Design Thinking” E.O. Wilson (Rolf Faste, et al) Ilya Prigogine Richard Francis Thaler Fukuyama
  • 18. A different approach to innovation growth… Plantation Rainforest
  • 19. While plants are harvested most efficiently on farms, weeds sprout best in Rainforests.
  • 20. For a new species For a new startup temperature, humidity, capital, entrepreneurs, precipitation, sunlight, laws/norms, ideas/inventions, soil/nutrients, other flora/fauna talent, markets
  • 21. A radical shift in perspective. Neoclassical economics has dominated our thinking on systems for over 100 years.
  • 22. The real world. Not gears, but human beings. Landlord Land Engineer Labor Output Capital Investor Technology? Scientist
  • 23. And real human beings are separated … by geography, culture, language, social networks, and lack of trust.
  • 24. This happens across entire systems. Across an entire system
  • 25. The Secret of Innovation Ecosystems Rainforests thrive because of culture that overcomes social system Across an entire barriers and fosters a special style of collaboration between people…
  • 26. The Innovation Ecosystem Ideas Opportunity Talent Capital
  • 27. It’s not just creative destruction. Far more important—and harder— is creative reassembly.
  • 28. Like a fractal equation in nature… Across an entire system
  • 29. …what is the micro cultural pattern that generates macro phenomena in places like Silicon Valley?
  • 30. The culture of the American frontier required strangers to trust fast, or die…
  • 31. Rules of the Rainforest Rule #1: Break rules and dream. Rule #2: Open doors and listen. Rule #3: Trust and be trusted. Rule #4: Experiment and iterate together. Rule #5: Seek fairness, not advantage. Rule #6: Err, fail, and persist. Rule #7: Pay it forward.
  • 32. How do humans change behavior? Across an entire system
  • 33. Tools to Build Rainforests Tool #1: Learn by Doing Tool #2: Enhance Diversity Tool #3: Celebrate Role Models and Peer Interaction Tool #4: Build Tribes of Trust Tool #5: Create Social Feedback Loops Tool #6: Make Social Contracts Explicit
  • 34. • are the entrepreneurs? •Who has the reputation, resources and •Who are the service providers? •What is the regulatory environment for commitment to lead new initiatives? •Who are the inventors? innovation? •Who will champion new initiatives within •Who are the capital providers? •What legal/bureaucratic barriers stand in their own organizations? •Who are the support organizations? the way of entrepreneurship? •How can leaders and champions be more •What is the role of government? •What widespread social norms surround inclusive? •Who are the other key participants in the innovation ecosystems? the innovation ecosystem? •What are people already doing to stimulate •Where, when and how do stakeholders •What resources are available to aspiring innovation/entrepreneurship? •Who are the local entrepreneurs that have interact? built successful companies? entrepreneurs (knowledge, mentorship, •How are these people collaborating with •How do ideas, talent and capital come cloud hosting, etc.)? each other? •Who are the local entrepreneurs that together? •What sources of capital are there in the •What activities drive participation in the •What are the lines of communication haven’t yet been successful and what can marketplace? we learn from their failures? community? between partners? •How does this capital flow and interact with •What events create ‘buzz’ and generate •What regions have similar attributes and growing businesses? •How do members of the community resources? interest? collaborate with each other? •What is the volume and quality of talent in •What organizations have shared the labor pool? •How does the community engage external visions/values? or global partners? •Are there other regions with successful •What are the main sources of innovative •How does the community encourage recruit ideas/discoveries/inventions? innovation ecosystems that we could learn new constituents? •What resources are available to service and •How do young people get involved? from or emulate? support organizations that interact with entrepreneurs (workforce training, etc.)? •What forums exist that allow the breakdown of social and professional hierarchies? •Where do people come from? •What is the density and quality of service providers (law, IP, consulting, real estate, etc.)? •What are their value systems? •What boundary spanning organizations exist? •What are their motivations (money, reputation, lifestyle, self expression, etc.)? •What is the local level of serial entrepreneurship? •What are the ‘amenities of place’? •What is the density and quality of physical infrastructure (airports, internet connections, etc.)? •How do we create and maintain a sense of urgency? •What are the core sectors of the local economy? •What kind of innovative social networks exist already? •What are the strongest regional comparative advantages? •How do people deal with uncertainty, risk or randomness? •How is failure perceived? •Do people build for perfection or iteration?
  • 35. The Power of Two People Across an entire system Multiplied Millions of Times
  • 36. A “Davos for doers” who are discovering how to build Rainforests… www.innosummit.com
  • 37. Across an entire system www.therainforestbook.com