CROP farmers anxiously watching prices fall to ever less remunerative levels have had further unwelcome news over the past couple of months from yet higher cereal and oilseed crop estimates across the Northern Hemisphere.
IT has been a mostly bearish period since our last review – thanks to some new record crop and stocks estimates for wheat and soyabeans and the chill economic wind blowing from China. The latter especially has unsettled global market sentiment, casting a shadow over the forward outlook for commodity demand – especially in the feed and bio-fuel sectors (depressing crude oil prices to new lows). It also seems to have outweighed, for now at least, the likelihood that US and CIS – possibly also South American maize supply has been over-rated – although, even if it is, there is probably still more than enough of the leading feed grain to meet all perceived demand, as discussed in more detail below. The overall impact of these events as we go to press has been to push prices to new five-year lows for US and EU wheat, 6½- year lows for soyabeans and to dampen ideas of a sustained recovery in the feed grain sector (maize prices have at least managed to stay above last September’s five-year lows but for how long?)
MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.
Grain prices have steadied in recent weeks after their long drop amid further signs that 2015/16 supplies will be ‘less loose’ than this season’s - if not exactly ‘tight’ by historical comparison.
FUNDAMENTALS have tipped further in favour of the grain and feed consumer since our April review as an ever loosening new crop supply outlook promises an extended period of cost restraint. Until recently, the popular view among analysts had been for an inevitable decline in crop yields from last year’s above normal levels and, in several key supplier countries, some cutback in sowings in response to this season’s grain surpluses and low prices. But it was also assumed the massive stocks carried over from the current season of plenty would cushion the forward market against the crop decline – so no reason for any drastic price increases.
CROP farmers anxiously watching prices fall to ever less remunerative levels have had further unwelcome news over the past couple of months from yet higher cereal and oilseed crop estimates across the Northern Hemisphere.
IT has been a mostly bearish period since our last review – thanks to some new record crop and stocks estimates for wheat and soyabeans and the chill economic wind blowing from China. The latter especially has unsettled global market sentiment, casting a shadow over the forward outlook for commodity demand – especially in the feed and bio-fuel sectors (depressing crude oil prices to new lows). It also seems to have outweighed, for now at least, the likelihood that US and CIS – possibly also South American maize supply has been over-rated – although, even if it is, there is probably still more than enough of the leading feed grain to meet all perceived demand, as discussed in more detail below. The overall impact of these events as we go to press has been to push prices to new five-year lows for US and EU wheat, 6½- year lows for soyabeans and to dampen ideas of a sustained recovery in the feed grain sector (maize prices have at least managed to stay above last September’s five-year lows but for how long?)
MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.
Grain prices have steadied in recent weeks after their long drop amid further signs that 2015/16 supplies will be ‘less loose’ than this season’s - if not exactly ‘tight’ by historical comparison.
FUNDAMENTALS have tipped further in favour of the grain and feed consumer since our April review as an ever loosening new crop supply outlook promises an extended period of cost restraint. Until recently, the popular view among analysts had been for an inevitable decline in crop yields from last year’s above normal levels and, in several key supplier countries, some cutback in sowings in response to this season’s grain surpluses and low prices. But it was also assumed the massive stocks carried over from the current season of plenty would cushion the forward market against the crop decline – so no reason for any drastic price increases.
Grain & feed markets have been volatile in the past month, futures prices initially rising sharply on ‘outside’ buying, then dropping back again under the weight of more bearish supply news - with the notable exception of soya.
Constantly rising wheat crop estimates, record large global stocks of cereals in total and mostly ‘yield-friendly’ weather in the Northern hemisphere have continued to erode grain prices over the past month, resulting in US wheat trading near 10-year lows.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
Long term projections for Potash demand are stable and likely to moderately increase year-over-year. The quantity of high-quality arable land is decreasing. Human population is expected to increase by 3 Billion people in the next 37 years. There are no precise substitutes for potash. It is proven to considerably increase yield quantity and quality on almost all crops. The cumulative effects of the above factors will drive demand.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
anric blatt, lauralouise duffy, global fund exchange, earth wind & fire fund, investing in agriculture, investing in water, investing in the future of energy
For 2016/17 (July to June), Post/New total Mexican wheat production is forecast to increase to 3.9 million metric tons (MMT). This increase of approximately 3.7 percent assumes favourable weather conditions and normal yields in the key wheat areas of Northwest Mexico (Baja California and Sonora) for the 2015/16 autumn/winter crop cycle.
The global outlook series on the Agriculture Industry provides a collection of statistical anecdotes, market briefs, and concise summaries of research findings. Illustrated with 59 fact-rich market data tables, the report offers a rudimentary overview of the industry and highlights latest trends and demand drivers. Regional markets briefly abstracted and covered include United States, Canada, Europe (Germany, Spain, UK, Russia, and Turkey) Asia-Pacific (Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Philippines among others) Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Chile among others) and South Africa among others. The report offers a compilation of recent mergers, acquisitions, and strategic corporate developments. Also included is an indexed, easy-to-refer, fact-finder directory listing the addresses, and contact details of 352 companies worldwide.
Grain & feed markets have been volatile in the past month, futures prices initially rising sharply on ‘outside’ buying, then dropping back again under the weight of more bearish supply news - with the notable exception of soya.
Constantly rising wheat crop estimates, record large global stocks of cereals in total and mostly ‘yield-friendly’ weather in the Northern hemisphere have continued to erode grain prices over the past month, resulting in US wheat trading near 10-year lows.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
Long term projections for Potash demand are stable and likely to moderately increase year-over-year. The quantity of high-quality arable land is decreasing. Human population is expected to increase by 3 Billion people in the next 37 years. There are no precise substitutes for potash. It is proven to considerably increase yield quantity and quality on almost all crops. The cumulative effects of the above factors will drive demand.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
anric blatt, lauralouise duffy, global fund exchange, earth wind & fire fund, investing in agriculture, investing in water, investing in the future of energy
For 2016/17 (July to June), Post/New total Mexican wheat production is forecast to increase to 3.9 million metric tons (MMT). This increase of approximately 3.7 percent assumes favourable weather conditions and normal yields in the key wheat areas of Northwest Mexico (Baja California and Sonora) for the 2015/16 autumn/winter crop cycle.
The global outlook series on the Agriculture Industry provides a collection of statistical anecdotes, market briefs, and concise summaries of research findings. Illustrated with 59 fact-rich market data tables, the report offers a rudimentary overview of the industry and highlights latest trends and demand drivers. Regional markets briefly abstracted and covered include United States, Canada, Europe (Germany, Spain, UK, Russia, and Turkey) Asia-Pacific (Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Philippines among others) Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Chile among others) and South Africa among others. The report offers a compilation of recent mergers, acquisitions, and strategic corporate developments. Also included is an indexed, easy-to-refer, fact-finder directory listing the addresses, and contact details of 352 companies worldwide.
The International Grains Council’s 24th annual conference, held in London on 9 June 2015, brought together some 300 traders, policymakers and other industry professionals. Meeting under the theme “Building on success, responding to challenges,” delegates from 48 countries gathered to assess the recent shifts in market fundamentals, which has seen global grains and oilseeds inventories build to near-record levels, with prices dropping to multi-year lows. As well as being a key forum for the exchange of views, the conference provided a valuable networking opportunity, bringing together a unique mix of participants from private and public sectors.
With 20 years of experience and a multi-award winning track record for both leadership and innovation, Dr Eckel GmbH is one of the most widely regarded companies in the global animal nutrition sector.
Even with proper aeration, grain can only be stored for a limited time. It will deteriorate faster as temperature and moisture content increase. The allowable storage time is based on the length of time corn can be stored before losing 0.5 percent of dry matter. With this amount of dry matter decomposition, it is assumed that the corn loses some quality.
WITH most of 2012’s adverse supply developments now factored into prices, world grain and feed markets are now starting to fix their sights more firmly on 2013/14 crop prospects. A recovery is certainly needed in 2013 cereal output. Latest estimates show world production this season is dropping by about 75m tonnes or just over 4% but consumption by only 37m tonnes or 2%, the balance coming off stocks.
World prices of cereals, as measured on the benchmark Chicago futures market – were getting incredibly cheap during June – maize edging towards three and wheat to four-year lows under pressure from excessive stocks, uncertain forward demand for feed and expected large world crops. But the picture has changed radically in the last few weeks as those optimistic world wheat crop estimates have started to slide on unexpected weather problems – first in Canada, then Europe itself and latterly in the former Soviet Union, where coarse grain output could take an even bigger hit from droughts and heat-waves.
CONCERNS about the long-term impact of a weather-challenged autumn sowing campaign in the former Soviet ‘Black Sea’ countries have dominated market sentiment since our last review, keeping wheat prices off the rock-bottom levels that might have been demanded by this season’s huge surplus crop.
Forecasting prices even one year ahead can be a hazardous business. That applies especially to markets so dominated by that most unpredictable element of weather and, increasingly these days; the sometimes even more capricious influence of global economic trends – trade and GDP growth, currency volatility, the price of crude oil, etc.
NNFCC market review feedstocks issue seven october 2012NNFCC
Welcome to the October 2012 issue of our market review for biomass feedstocks. As the UK’s crop harvest draws to a close, it is not only remarkable for being two weeks later than normal and for producing the lowest yields seen since the 1980s but it could also play its part in causing a major shift in EU biofuel policy.
Cotton is one of the most widely cultivated crops worldwide. The cotton sector is subject to very unstable prices. This is especially to the disadvantage of African producer countries where cotton is often the only source of revenue for millions of farmers and workers. Moreover, the cotton sector is subject to serious environmental and health risks.
To deal with these, African cotton growers must look for credible alternatives such as fairtrade and/or organic cotton.
A FEW months ago, a major recovery from last year’s unusual succession of crop setbacks was no more than a promise based on larger sown acreages and hopes for ‘normalising’ weather in the world’s key grain-producing regions. That didn’t stop prices falling as markets put their bets on a return to looser supplies but, after a tough winter and a cold wet spring delayed winter crop development and spring sowings across much of the Northern hemisphere, some caution was still required.
NNFCC market review feedstocks issue one april 2012NNFCC
Each month we review the latest announcements and news from across the global crops, wood and wastes industries that supply bio-based markets. This service is exclusively for our business members
Escalating production costs and risks, uncertain premiums, growing workload pressures and attractive feed prices are all serving to undermine the confidence of even the most historically committed of UK milling wheat growers. To such an extent that a fresh industry-wide approach to quality wheat will be essential if sufficient domestic production is to be maintained.
GLOBAL wheat markets have spent most of 2015 to date in retreat from a steep run-up in prices in the final weeks of last year. Many readers may be aware that the main element in that upturn was the decision by fourth largest exporter Russia to curb the too-rapid flow of its once-plentiful milling wheat onto world markets at a time when doubts were rising about the size of its next harvest. As the rouble nosedived with the collapse in value of Russia’s crude oil exports and Western sanctions – keeping Russian exports cheap - there did seem a real risk, as the year turned, that too much of its wheat would be snapped up by foreign buyers, leaving its domestic market short and at risk of escalating costs for that most basic staple, bread. Russia is also thought to need more wheat and other cereals for animal feed this seaso as it tries to boost domestic livestock output to replace embargoed meat imports from Europe and the USA.
Agricultural trade has been an important contributor in Bangladesh to improved food security and price stability. For example, private sector imports have assured a price ceiling at import parity levels in the aftermath of major floods in 1998 and 2004. As the global price crisis has shown, however, the positive experiences with private trade might not completely eliminate the role of public food stocks. While Bangladesh is a net agricultural importer, it has also been successful in exporting cereals and high-value products such as shrimp and fish. This success has partly been due to preferential trade agreements. However, further investments are needed to assure that Bangladesh can adhere to increasing quality and safety standards and to prepare for a more liberalized international trade environment, once the Doha trade negotiations are finalized.
The long-awaited Panama Canal expansion opened earlier this Summer with a ceremonial ship passing through the waterway. Based on extensive research including more than 100 studies on the economic feasibility, market demand, environmental impact and other technical engineering aspects, the Panama Canal expansion involved the construction of a ‘Third Set of Locks’ that will now allow larger ships to pass through the famous canal.
Family-owned Catalyst, formerly Pharm-Tech, custom formulates and manufactures feed and nutritional supplements for customers in the livestock, poultry, pet, wildlife and aquaculture industries. It operates five production plants, three in Idaho and two in Iowa. Its range of over 100 products includes digestive aids, mineral supplements and most recently Certified Organic blends and finished feeds.
Wholegrain Ingredient Producers EDME, based in England, has pioneered an innovative new category of ingredients. Michael Carr, Sales and Marketing Director of natural ingredient producer at EDME says, “We’ve identified a growing interest in sprouted foods and have developed a brand new product category to help bakers and food manufacturers meet that interest and demand.” Sprouted grains meet the demand for new wholegrain ingredients that are nutritious, soft and tender, as well as being more palatable and digestible.
Last month, we outlined the new regulations that grain processors needed to be aware of. This included the new NFPA 652 and OSHA initiatives. This month we delve into the array of options available to control combustible dust. Grain processors need to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of each before choosing the smartest approach.
Operating in 140 countries and boasting 90 service stations worldwide, Bühler has been at the vanguard of industrial process technologies and solutions for over 150 years. Contributing significantly to feeding the world’s ever-growing population, Bühler manufactures equipment for processing of maize, wheat, chocolate, rice, pasta and breakfast cereals globally. In fact, 65 percent of wheat milled around the globe is processed on Bühler grain mills and around 30 percent of global rice production is processed using Bühler equipment.
A consolidation of highly respected British brands E R & F Turner, Christy & Norris and Miracle Mills, Christy Turner Ltd is renowned for quality British engineering and innovation in the milling industry. With flaking mills operational around the globe, the leading UK engineering firm talks us through their top tips for increasing the longevity and performance of your flaking rolls.
On the 26 October this year, Milling and Grain magazine attended OCRIM’s 6th technical conference “Wheat, Flour and…” at its headquarters located in Cremona, home to violin extraordinaire Antonio Stradivari and arguably one of Northern Italy’s most picturesque historical cities. The annual event was aimed at clients, local residents, and friends in the worlds of industry, academia and politics.
Joordens Zaden in Kessel, The Netherlands is an international specialist in the development and production of seed for green manure crops, forage crops and forage grasses. The seeds comply with the high quality requirements of ISTA and are strictly checked every week by external quality controllers from the Dutch General Inspection Service (NAK).
A leading miller since the company was founded in 1919, over the years Grand Moulins in Paris has been able to diversify its activities and innovate to maximize customer satisfaction.
With over a century of experience in the design, quality and installation of grain storage systems, Bentall Rowlands Storage Systems Limited is a leading UK manufacturer in complete storage and processing equipment for the agricultural and industrial markets.
Many in the milling and grain sector may be unaware that there is a significant new revenue stream available to progressive and forward-thinking mills. It focuses on the use of energy, and how by turning the power down for a relatively short period each year in line with National Grid’s and EirGrid’s requirements, companies can enjoy considerable and long-term financial rewards.
Calysta, the company developing and introducing a new protein source based on single-cell organisms - a bacterium called methylococcus – and destined for inclusion in fishfeeds, has built a ‘market introduction facility’ in Teesside, England, with production beginning in this last quarter of 2016.
Changes in flour quality are and will continue to be a problem for the bakery industry. Large amounts of grain are processed by the milling industry and many resources used to secure the flour produced have a consistent quality.
The Bakery Innovation Center (BIC) at the Bühler headquarters is now five years old. As a center for vocational training and further education for bakers and millers, it is very popular.
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
When China discovered that they were losing a significant amount of harvested crop through poor storage, it was decided that something at a national level had to be done about it; that’s what is happening there today
As we know, Turkey is a developing country. What we might not know is that it accounts for over 20 percent of world’s flour trade in exports. Now supported by Konya Borsa, a new local market trading board, it is well positioned to accelerate both the means and ease of the county’s business operations for all customers, both domestic and international.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered QualityInflectra
In this insightful webinar, Inflectra explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming software development and testing. Discover how AI-powered tools are revolutionizing every stage of the software development lifecycle (SDLC), from design and prototyping to testing, deployment, and monitoring.
Learn about:
• The Future of Testing: How AI is shifting testing towards verification, analysis, and higher-level skills, while reducing repetitive tasks.
• Test Automation: How AI-powered test case generation, optimization, and self-healing tests are making testing more efficient and effective.
• Visual Testing: Explore the emerging capabilities of AI in visual testing and how it's set to revolutionize UI verification.
• Inflectra's AI Solutions: See demonstrations of Inflectra's cutting-edge AI tools like the ChatGPT plugin and Azure Open AI platform, designed to streamline your testing process.
Whether you're a developer, tester, or QA professional, this webinar will give you valuable insights into how AI is shaping the future of software delivery.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 3. In this session, we will cover desktop automation along with UI automation.
Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
"Impact of front-end architecture on development cost", Viktor TurskyiFwdays
I have heard many times that architecture is not important for the front-end. Also, many times I have seen how developers implement features on the front-end just following the standard rules for a framework and think that this is enough to successfully launch the project, and then the project fails. How to prevent this and what approach to choose? I have launched dozens of complex projects and during the talk we will analyze which approaches have worked for me and which have not.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
2. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
‘Between-crops,’ consumers
Global consumption
hope for big feed grain recovery
of wheat is
M
ARKET dynamics are swinging firmly in the absence of competition with very little overall
expected to fall toward 2012 crop and demand supply growth expected for the alternative oilseeds
prospects - and what a mixed bag the that make up almost two thirds of world production.
back too next preliminary estimates present! Mother nature, as always, will have the final say on
If all goes to plan, feed consumers could be cheering crop yields and production which, as last year showed,
season, by about an 86m-tonne recovery in world coarse grain (mainly could look quite different to the forecasts once the last
maize) production, two thirds of that coming from combines have come to rest. Right now, the biggest
8m tonnes, as within the USA. That would be quite some rebound producer, the USA, is getting mostly favourable
after the past season’s 45m tonne crop decline. It weather for possible record yields and earlier harvests.
various countries would not only leave plenty of room for expanding Europe has been severely challenged by winter frosts
coarse grain consumption around the globe. It would and droughts yet abundant rain might yet rescue
use more maize also allow for some significant replenishment of rock- decent crops in most member states. Further east
bottom stocks, removing much of justification for the there are dark mutterings about drought re-emerging
(assuming the big past year’s record maize costs. Indeed some pundits in the former Soviet Union – not on the devastating
are already talking of a possible return to the sort of 2010 scale but maybe enough to trim yields and
maize crop does maize prices markets grew used to over the last decade current (already much lower than last year) wheat crop
or two – perhaps 25% cheaper than present levels! forecasts. China (the world largest wheat producer
come through as But will there be surprises on the demand side of and consumer) also has some dyness issues while
the ledger too? Will China, for example, reveal a far Argentine wheat farmers are cutting back sowings due
planned). However, larger than expected feed raw material deficit as many to disappointing returns and government interference
analysts have been forecasting, mopping up some of in their export market. Canada has sown 11% more,
world wheat stocks these extra supplies? Will cheaper maize prices also Australia maybe 4-5% less wheat but both might have
stir demand from other importers large and small? better quality if they avoid last year’s untimely rains –
will decline by And just how much maize will be fed to livestock or which would be good news for millers..
used for ethanol fuel within the USA itself? In these Overall, if pundits like the US Agriculture
about 9m tonnes to uncertain economic times, opinions differ on these Department are right, 2012/13 may well shape up as
factors too, especially on the feeding prospects. a much better supplied year for maize and soyabeans
188m Wheat output, in contrast, is expected to drop next and an adequate one for wheat. That will certainly
season by 17m tonnes on weather-reduced planted/ offer less justification for hiking feed costs – or even
harvested acreage. But with stocks of 197m tonnes to keeping them as high as they are now.
carry in from 2011/12 - and wheat feeding to livestock Taking into account the improving supply forecasts,
likely to decline too (as consumers switch back to the US grain markets have been dropping since our
maize) - does a crop fall of this size really matter that last review and have recently traded close to the
much in the grand scheme of things?
Further forward in 2012/13 consumers are
also promised perhaps 35m tonnes more
soyabean production after this season’s 19m
tonne drop, the bulk coming from Latin America
where drought robbed farmers of a similar
amount this year. Will that increase (if it comes
off), mean lower soya costs eventually, as distant
futures markets suggest? Or will the world’s
mega-buyer, China, step in on a larger scale
in this market too, keeping soya prices frisky?
Either way, soya costs will be freer to stay firm
34 | may - June 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
3. COMMODITIES
lows of last December. Although is one of uncertainty, nervousness and –
wheat supplies are seen edging despite the overall bias toward depressed
down (rather than up like maize and raw material markets – a continuing outlook
soyabeans) next season, Chicago for price volatility across the grain and feed
wheat futures have actually seen sector.
the biggest dip, trading close to
two year lows (with export prices for US hard
wheats already down to those levels). Given
while this has been going on, some better supplied
member states (notably the UK) have been able
Main commodity highlights since
the ongoing massive world wheat supply, this to sell feed wheat to the USA. This underlines our last review
might seem a long overdue reaction with some the global nature of the 21st Century commodity
distance yet to go. market, albeit with some help from rock-bottom Wheat supplies not quite so
Cheaper wheat has been hastened by a ocean freight costs earlier in the year.
reversal in maize prices as traders start to believe The past couple of months have also seen a
flush after all?
that a massive, record US crop of the latter grain marked increase in pessimism over the Euro- The past season saw the biggest world wheat
really is possible, given expanded sowing plans, zone’s debt crisis and its potential to spread crop ever as farmers responded to strong
early planting and currently ideal weather. As contagion to broader global markets. As we go to prices with larger sowings (+1.5%) and yields
pointed our in earlier reviews, tight old crop press the burning issue has shifted from if to when recovered from the series of weather events
markets have forced US maize prices to trade Greece might be forced out of the EZ, to the that slashed output around the globe in 2010.
for many months at highly unusual premiums impact on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese debt, Most of that crop recovery was in the former
to wheat (even hard red winter wheat with its Spanish bank solvency, global economic activity Soviet Union although India the EU, Canada,
higher nutritional value). This phenomenon has etc etc. Along with signs of faltering Chinese Australia, China and several smaller producers
sustained even the more abundantly supplied growth and wavering US economic data, this grew larger crops too, offset only partially by a
soft wheat markets at prices that would normally has been a tremendous drag on all the markets few declines in countries like Argentina and Iran.
be considered out of synch with the loose – stocks, financials, energy - even the supposedly Consumption also expanded to record high
fundamentals. more ‘fire-proof’ agricultural commodities with levels, mainly because so much more wheat
The notable exception to the latter has been their assumed solid demand as food staples. was used in animal feeds to replace tight and
Western Europe, where last year’s (and likely At this stage it is hard to divine which is having expensive maize – in Europe, the USA, Asia,
this year’s too) weather-reduced crop and lack – or will have - the greater impact on grain and China, the CIS and others. Just how much
of supplies from the Black Sea countries has feed markets – the potential for lost physical more has been hotly debated over the past
kept wheat prices up on their own merits and demand for commodities, the decline in liquidity year but it does now seem the feed total was
above the world market (led by the US, Canada, of banks and hedge funds who speculated in much larger than originally thought. In its latest
Argentina, Australia). Indeed in some of the agric futures from 2008/09 onward and have lost appraisal, the USDA estimates feeding reached
EU northern regions, especially Germany, feed money on reversals and their other numerous 146.7m tonnes – a rise of 31.3m or 5%. That’s
wheat has been scare enough to sell at higher bad bets, or the sheer negativity of ’sentiment.’ almost 10m tonnes more than forecast in April
prices than milling wheat. Paradoxically, even Whichever combination of these, the picture and results in total wheat demand matching
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512431Grain_Feed_190x58_gb_4c.indd 1 may - June 2012 | 35 08:58
21.05.12
4. production. World carryover stocks this June 30 of a reversal to higher levels as weather shifts • To what extent will EU winter wheat crops
will not increase by 12.6m tonnes as expected begin the question some of the more liberal affected by the Jan/Feb freeze and the March
earlier but remain about the same as last year. crop estimates. Chief areas of concern are Russia drought recover amid recent plentiful rain?
Yet at 197m tonnes, these are still huge by any and Ukraine – possible drought losses on top • Summer weather in the Northern Hemisphere
measurement, equal to 28.4% of consumption of quite severe winterkill (mainly in Ukraine), where most of the world’s wheat is grown –
or almost 15 weeks’ supplies. the EU – worse than expected winterkill and yields nearly always affect crop size more than
The USDA has recently released its first an earlier drought, the effect of which might shifts in sown acreage.
take on 2012/13 world grain balances and they be partly reversed by a ‘Monsoon’ spring - and • A big US crop with plenty of hard red winter
make interesting reading. As other analysts like lastly the US southern/central Plains where the variety and improving spring wheat prospects
Automotive Building & Chemical Crea
the International Grains Council have been top might be shaved off hard red winter yields
Industry will help hold down breadwheat prices globally.
Construction Industry Indu
forecasting, the USDA expects 2012 wheat by a spell of hot dry weather. • How far will wheat consumption in feeds
Industry
output to decline, by about 2.5% or 17m tonnes At this stage, potential losses to the 678m world decline world-wide if the US, other major
crop scenario are not necessarily producers produce bumper maize crops?.
large – maybe 5m or 10m tonnes • India is likely to export far more wheat than
– but enough to constrain the expected earlier in the year, competition for
complacency that was emerging more traditional exporters and helping to fill
about 2012/13 supplies. The some of the ‘Black Sea’ supply gap.
reaction from markets has been • Progress of sowings in key quality bread wheat
exaggerated partly by the fact that supplier Australia and pre-harvest weather
the bellwether Chicago wheat there – will it improve after after two years
futures contract had been heavily of rain-damaged crops?
sold by speculators who, suddenly • The price of maize – it has been supporting
realising their exposure to weather wheat in the face of burdensome stocks for
shifts, greater than expected old over a year.
crop demand or rallies in maize
and soya, rushed to cover some of their ‘short’
position. This has recently recouped some of
Maize leads coarse grain
the losses in US prices and pushed European comeback–
prices a little higher too. A weak euro has also
played in to firmer EU milling wheat prices but but the crop isn’t grown yet
that could reverse if the Euro-zone does get The USDA’s first 2012/13 supply/demand
its act together. forecasts dealt a body blow to maize bulls,
Wheat is still plentiful as witnessed by the predicting the US crop would rocket by 62m
competition for ‘non-routine’ import orders tonnes to a new record 376m. Even with a
from the big Middle East buyers and other 23m tonne jump in US domestic use (mainly in
milling wheat consumers. Not only are further the feed sector) and a 4.5m tonne increase in
countries like Canada and the US competing exports, that would still raise carryover stocks
for Arab business; so are distant suppliers like to more than double this season’s tight ending
to some 678m. This assumes a 22m tonne Argentina and Australia, able to take advantage level at about 48m tones. The US maize crop
reversal for Russia, Ukraine and Kazkhstan of still unusually low ocean freight rates. Even the – which has gone in early on a massive 96m
combined and declines of 5.4m tonnes for the former Soviet countries, supposedly concerned acres – possibly more – still needs to be proved.
EU, 3.5m for Australia, 2m for Argentina, offset about approaching crop setbacks and ‘over-selling’ Weather has been mostly benign so far. As we go
only partly by a 6.7m increase for the USA, plus their remaining 2011 supplies, seem to be keen to to press, there are some concerns about possible
4.1m for India, 2.1m for China and 1.74m more remain in the contest for ‘opportunity’ custom, hotter drier forecasts as crops approach early
for Canada. rather than end up with too much old crop stock pollination which works better under cooler,
Global consumption of wheat is expected to at harvest time. On top of that, India has record damper conditions but such talk is par for the
fall back too next season, by about 8m tonnes, as stocks – four times and more its target level for course at this time of the year. World corn
various countries use more maize (assuming the state reserves. With yet another bumper harvest supplies will also be boosted by bigger crops
big maize crop does come through as planned). on the way, it could easily add 10m tonnes or in Argentina (+3.5m tonnes), Canada (+1.9m),
However, world wheat stocks will decline by much more to the global export mix, without former Soviet countries (+1.5m), South Africa
about 9m tonnes to 188m. jeopardising its own food security/inflation (+1.5m) and China (+1.9m). In total, world corn
Taking these preliminary figures at face containment plans. output could increase by 75m tonnes, putting it
value, there is nothing overtly bullish for prices. Despite this apparent plenty, wheat prices will about 25m tonnes ahead of world consumption
Exporters like the USA, Australia, Canada, India – probably not drop much more until the Northern (despite a 54m tonne increase in the latter).
even Russia – would still have relatively big crops. Hemisphere harvest picture clears – for both What issues might interfere with this prognosis
Some exporters – chiefly the US, Australia, India wheat and maize. Until the US and other big for ample supplies and, logically, lower corn costs?
and the former Soviets also carry in comfortable suppliers prove their forecast large corn crops, Apart from US and European weather in the
or in some cases (India and the US) larger than the risk remains that wheat could again be in coming summer months, we need to keep an
normal stocks. more demand than usual for the feed industry. eye on demand developments. After the USA,
These early pointers to ongoing adequacy of the main area of demand growth for maize in
supply combined with weakening maize prices
(maize strength has been the main support for
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS the coming year will be China, seen adding 12m
tonnes to its consumption which at 200m tonnes
wheat this season) and negative events in the AHEAD would be 7m tonnes ahead of local output.
world economy to drive down wheat prices China has already emerged as the main growth
to their lowest levels of the year during May. • How far will ‘Black Sea’ regional wheat crops factor in 2011/12 demand, importing 5m tonnes
However, as we go to press that trend is at risk decline this summer? compared with less than 1m in 2010/11 and very
36 | may - June 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
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6. little in previous years. Some sources put its feed season. With slightly higher rye crops and oats this has helped restrain soya prices on the world
grain deficit as high as 20m tonnes but that is output more or less unchanged, global coarse market, it is not good news for consumers who
probably far too high, given China’s ability to grain supplies will be able to increase their share want to see buoyant demand for meat products
use quite a lot of its own lower grade wheat of world cereal feed consumption to about 84%, and feedstuffs. Another factor is the chronically
crops in animal feeds. (It has already used about cutting wheat use in this sector by about 14m weak euro, robbing consumers of any benefit
10m tonnes more wheat this season, avoiding tonnes. when dollar prices for soya products dip.
the need to import the 10m tonnes of maize Tightening Latin American soya supply puts
some US observers predicted a few months ago).
Still, China’s regular purchasing forays on world
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS increasing onus on the US to produce a decent
crop this summer. Current estimates suggests
markets will probably offer some support to US AHEAD it has sown more than the USDA predicted in
and world maize prices going forward. March and early planting raises the prospect of
Outside of China, the US and the big South • Just how big will the US maize crop be this good yields. However, the US crop will only fiull
American producing countries, demand for year – big enough to double carryover stocks a small part of the gap left by disappointing South
maize is expected to bounce back in a number and maybe cut another 25% off international American crops. This will show in the market
of moderate/smaller importing countries maize prices? price later in the season when Lat-Am crops
in response to larger supplies and cheaper • Final size of Latin American crops start to run out and import demand focuses
prices (perhaps not as low as the $3-4/bushel • How much corn will West Europe & the more heavily on the US crop around third or
consumers got used to for most of the last ten former Soviet countries sow on failed winter fourth quarter 2012. Soon after that, markets
years but still a lot cheaper than in the past wheat lands? will also be closely watching what the South
season). The exception may be Mexico, a big US • Possibly bigger than expected Chinese maize/ Americans will sow in the autumn. A good soya
customer, which expects a better domestic crop. feedgrain import requirements – currently price will be needed to encourage maximum
Overall, the USDA expects this scenario to seen anywhere between six and 20 million acreage and much better weather than the past
drive down the US seasonal average maize price tonnes – enough to change the direction of
to $4.20/$5 per bushel (with a mean of $4.60) US/European and international prices.
compared with the past season’s $5.95/6.25 • Will global economic recession curb meat/ Table 1: First 2012/13 balance = USDA
($6.10). The futures markets meanwhile point to consumption in some developing countries, cut Main producers (000 tonnes)
a drop from the current $6.35 to about $5.50 in cap feed grain demand and help hold down
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
a year’s time. One or two of our US trade sources grain and oilseed costs?
are far bolder in predicting cheap maize prices • We continue to hear reports that speculators
back in the $4/bu area if these big supply forecasts are taking money out of commodities – China 115.2 117.9 120
come to pass. That would not be impossible but less fervent investment by this sector has EU 135.7 137.4 132
it would require wheat prices to backtrack too contributed to lower grain and feed raw FSU 81.1 114.4 97.8
and both of these major grains would need a material costs in recent months. Australia 27.9 29.5 26.0
very favourable summer. Canada 23.2 25.3 27
World barley production is also seen edging
ahead in 2012/13, to 135.4m from the past
Oilmeals Argentina
WORLD TOTAL
16.1
651.1
14.5
694.6
12
677.6
season’s 133.7m. The increase is mainly in Europe World oilseed crop estimates have shrunk World end stocks 196.7 197.0 188.1
and would have been significantly higher if not by another 8m tonnes since our last review to
for the severe winterkill suffered across the EU around 237m – a big drop from the previous
earlier in the year and the subsequent stress from season’s 265m tonnes. Most of the latest decline is year’s to top up supplies in the spring of 2013. In
droughts. As the earlier harvested crop, barley in soyabean production in South America where the meantime, hopes of supplementing supplies
drought and heatwave damage rest on the East Europeans and the former
earlier in the year turned out much Soviet countries pulling off better sunflowerseed
worse than expected. Overall, crops and Canada producing a possible record
soyabean output is expected to rapeseed crop. However, even if these come
drop by the equivalent of about 22m to pass, world oilseed output is likely to fall well
tonnes of soya meal although the short of demand into 2013, drawing down stocks
effect will be mitigated considerably and keeping a fairly firm undertone under costs
by crushers drawing down relatively of protein meals.
large carryover stocks from the
previous crop. Despite this tightening
of supplies, US soya meal prices have
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
not risen much on domestic markets AHEAD
and soyabeans, after a brief rally to
about $15/bushel in late April, have • How much land will the US plant to soyabeans
actually dropped to around $13.50 this spring – 75m, 76m acres or more?
recently. This is a largely technical Consumers will have no trouble disposing of
move, caused by speculators having a bigger crop.
overbought the futures markets • As they continue to shrink, how small will South
and leaving themselves exposed America’s soyabean crops end up?
has had less time than wheat to recover amid the to ‘profit-taking’ corrections. It also reflects the • Chinese consumption and timing of imports
recent welcome return to wet weather but will highly negative sentiment on global financial will drive global protein demand
probably have been stabilised at least. markets in the wake of the Euro-zone crisis • EU/CIS sunflowerseed plantings – to what
World barley consumption is seen rising slightly, which many pundits think will spill over into extent might these start to compensate for
putting it just ahead of production and resulting the global economy, causing weak demand for disappointing rapeseed crops and global soya
in stocks staying fairly tight through the coming commodities linked to meat production. While shortfalls in the meal sector?
38 | may - June 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
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