Abda El-Mahdi - Former State Minister of Finance and National Economy, Sudan ERF Conference on “Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order” Kuwait, November 26-27, 2017 www.erf.org.eg

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Sudan Economy:
Coping with a New Global
Oil Order
Abda El-Mahdi | November 2017

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Executive summary
Sudan pre-2011
▪ Sudan experienced high economic growth from 2000 to 2010 as an oil exporter, with
production reaching ~500 thousand barrels per day
▪ The oil sector contributed ~16% of GDP by 2010, but symptoms of the Dutch disease were
evident
Effects of South Sudan secession
▪ Secession of South Sudan in 2011 caused a shock to the economy due to the loss of 75% of
the oil sector, equivalent to 50% of government revenue
▪ The government of Sudan responded to the crisis with an economic reform program, but the
recovery was aided by discovery of gold resources
Impact of lower global oil prices on the Sudanese economy
▪ Falling oil prices had a mixed impact on Sudan’s exports and imports of oil…
▪ …whereas at the fiscal level, oil revenue dropped by ~12% in 2014-15
▪ Falling oil prices also had indirect impacts on Sudan’s oil sector, workers abroad, and foreign
direct investment
The way forward
▪ Sudan is advised to diversify its economy toward sustainable resources as well as cease a
window of opportunity with the removal of US sanctions
▪ The first step: ensure a stable macro-economy and political situation
▪ Several other important reforms are required for Sudan to move forward

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Sudan experienced high economic growth from 2000 to 2010 as an oil
exporter, with production reaching ~500 thousand barrels per day
SOURCE: World Bank
2000 – 2010 Oil production 2000 – 2010 Economic growth rate
462475457
483
356
294291
262
236
209
180
080706 09 20102000 01 02
+10% p.a.
03 04 05
000’s barrels / day
60
70
20
30
0
10
50
40
08 201006 0704 0501 022000 03 09
GDP (current US$)
~8% growth per year
▪ Despite the high oil exports and resulting growth, Sudan was on the verge
economic deterioration for two key reasons:
1. Symptoms of the Dutch disease were evident
2. Growth was not inclusive and poverty increased

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The oil sector contributed ~16% of GDP by 2010, but key symptoms of the
Dutch disease were evident
Exchange rate
Public debt
Government
spending
Agriculture
▪ The real exchange rate appreciated substantially
▪ Overvaluation was as much as 65 percent in 2008
▪ Both domestic and foreign debt ballooned to unsustainable levels
▪ Government spending increased unsustainably with current
spending expanding at the expense of development spending
▪ Agriculture was neglected and its share in GDP declined from
46% in 2002 to 32% in 2010
Symptoms of Dutch disease
SOURCE: Unicons analysis
1
2
3
4

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Secession of South Sudan in 2011 caused a shock to the economy due to
the loss of 75% of the oil sector, equivalent to 50% of government revenue
Recession
Effects of South Sudan secession
Trade deficit
High
inflation
A
B
C
0
-10
20
10
% Real GDP growth
0
-10,000
-5,000
5,000
Trade balance
0
20
40
14 20161513121110092006 0807
% inflation1
SOURCE: IMF, Central bank of Sudan
June 2011 – South Sudan secession
1 Calculated as average inflation % per year

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The government of Sudan responded to the crisis with an economic reform
program1. Recovery was aided by discovery of gold resources
2009 – 2016 Exports Key takeaways
8,000
6,000
2,000
12,000
0
4,000
10,000
13122009 10 11 20161514
Gold exports
Total exports ▪ Exports of gold peaked
in 2012 to reach more
than 2 billion dollars
▪ Gold became the
number one earner of
foreign currency
earnings in 2012
▪ Contribution of gold
exports has since
declined to 34% in
2016
SOURCE: Central Bank of Sudan Trade Statistics
1 Three-year emergency program was instituted in 2012-2014 followed by a five-year economic reform program in 2015-2019
▪ Large imbalances in the economy persisted, made worse by American sanctions
– Current account deficit was still large at 8% of GDP in 2015
– Exchange rate continued to depreciate with gap between official and parallel rates
widening; this despite step nominal devaluations undertaken by the Central Bank
– High inflation rates of 36-37% in 2013-14 quickly ate up positive RER effects of nominal
devaluations
Millions US$

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Falling oil prices had a mixed impact on Sudan’s exports and imports of oil…
2009 – 2016 Oil exports and imports Key takeaways
▪ Sudan imports about 30%
of its domestic
consumption of oil
products; the decline in
prices has had a positive
impact on the country’s
import bill (fell by 50%
since 2014)
▪ Oil exports are on the
decline mainly because
of lower global oil prices
but also because of the
consequent smaller
government entitlement in
the EPSAs1; oil exports fell
from $1.3 billion in 2014 to
$627 million and $336
million in 2015 and 2016
respectively
SOURCE: World Bank
0
3,000
7,000
1,000
9,000
2,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Oil imports
Oil exports
2009 1211 1510 13 14 16
1 The impact of lower oil prices is further complicated by the fact that the government’s entitlement from oil production is governed by what are known as EPSA (oil exploration and production
sharing agreement)
Millions US$

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…whereas at the fiscal level, oil revenue dropped by ~12% in 2014-15
2005 – 2015 Oil and non-oil revenue Key takeaways
▪ Low oil prices and
continued civil conflict
in South Sudan have
necessitated re-
negotiation and
extension of the Bi-
Lateral agreements -
leading to lower oil
related revenues for
Sudan
▪ Oil revenues dropped
by 12% between 2014
and 2015 so that its
share in total revenues
fell from 34% in 2014 to
a mere 16% in 2015
SOURCE: Oil Ministry, Sudan
1 Three-year emergency program was instituted in 2012-2014 followed by a five-year economic reform program in 2015-2019
Billions SDG
7 8 8 10 11
15 15
22
31
44
6
8
10
16
10 9
6 6
11
16
8
6
082005 07
52
2015
47
18
15
12
24
06
2019
32
2122
10 13 141109 12
Non-oil revenue
Oil revenue

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Falling oil prices also had indirect impacts on Sudan’s oil sector, workers
abroad, and foreign direct investment
Oil sector
Impact
Workers
abroad
Foreign
direct
investment
A
B
C
▪ Sudan’s ambitious oil exploration and development plan has virtually
come to a standstill since mid-2014
▪ The return of thousands of Sudanese workers from the oil exporting
countries
▪ Impact on remittances and unemployment
▪ Possibly lower FDI as GCC countries account for 80% of these
investments
▪ Lower financial support from Gulf countries
SOURCE: Unicons analysis

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Sudan is advised to diversify its economy toward sustainable resources as
well as capitalize on the removal of US sanctions
The way forward…
▪ Both oil and gold are depletable resources
and projections put them as shrinking
beyond 2030 even when assuming more
favourable global oil and gold prices
▪ Sudan is blessed with large swaths of fertile
agricultural land and is rich in animal
resources
▪ The government of Sudan must focus on
diversifying the economy by making use of
its natural resources to develop its
agriculture and agro-industry sectors
▪ Sudan can capitalize on a
great window of opportunity
with the removal of US
sanctions in October of this
year
▪ To do so, the government
needs to implement a
comprehensive set of
economic, sectoral and
institutional reforms
SOURCE: Unicons analysis

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The first step: ensure a stable macro-economy and political situation
Macro-economic stabilityPolitical stability
▪ Political stability entails:
– Ending the civil
conflicts
– Greater freedoms of
expression and the
press
– Serious effort for
democratic transition
▪ A comprehensive economic reform
package must be carefully planned within a
medium term macro-economic framework.
Policy actions need to be strong, long lasting
and credible
– Exchange rate flexibility to unify the
exchange rates, reduce external pressures
and improve competitiveness
– End fiscal dominance and re-assert the
independence of the central bank
– Increased domestic revenue mobilization
– Austerity measures to reduce current
spending and create fiscal space for
greater social and development spending
– Redirecting of subsidies to more
efficiently benefit the poor
SOURCE: Unicons analysis

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Several other important reforms are required for Sudan to move forward
1
Improve the business environment: In the 2017 Ease of Doing Business report,
Sudan ranked 160 out of 190 countries
2
Clamp down on corruption: inorder to boost investor confidence, channel
transactions through formal avenues and reduce inequalities
3
Resolve the country’s debt problem: This will be instrumental in opening
international financial markets to Sudan and availing badly needed financing for the
country’s development projects
4
Build human capital: Invest in the education of children and youth as a pre-requisite
to reducing poverty and improving the competitiveness of its labor force
5
Develop infrastructure: As a pre-requisite for increasing higher private investment.
Electricity, roads and railways to improve market access especially in rural areas
6
Attract financing to bridge the infrastructure gap: If Sudan is to attract financing
from emerging economies such as China and India, it must carefully manage and
monitor such financing in order to avoid falling in the debt trap once more
SOURCE: Unicons analysis