The document discusses how barriers to low-skilled labor mobility between countries create one of the largest price distortions in history. This motivates innovation that displaces low-skilled labor through technology. It shows data that the wage gains from mobility into rich countries for low-skilled workers from places like Yemen and Nigeria would be over 1000%. Border barriers to labor are two orders of magnitude higher than any tariffs. Technological change is often biased toward replacing low-skilled jobs. Developing countries face challenges employing youth and generating exports with very low-skilled labor forces against these trends.
GIG economy - Human Resource management - Manu Melwin Joymanumelwin
A gig economy is an environment in which temporary positions are common and organizations contract with independent workers for short-term engagements.
This presentation was delivered in January 2010 to the Hartford Area Business Economists (HABE) in Hartford, CT. It focuses on the changing nature of work and implications for regional economic development.
The purpose of this research is to determine the impact on employment from information and communication technologies. Prior research has shown that both communication and automation are
displacing jobs, mainly those with middle-level skills.
ICTs are currently generating employment in developing countries as they make business and government operations more efficient but this may not be the case in the long term given Latin Americas’ weak economic and political environment. The region could be relegated to offer low wage services, potentially increasing poverty in the region.
A statistical analysis of a panel of 23 Latin American countries over a 20 year period indicates that mobile phones do not appear to be either helpful or harmful to service employment. Broadband, because penetration is low, it is not surprising that is shows a positive effect. Education is significant and negative, which could be explained by low levels of education as all
of the countries in the study are listed close to the bottom of the PISA rankings. Other factors that
negatively impact employment are capital formation, burdensome bureaucracies and corruption.
The paper concludes with policy recommendations.
This is follow-up from the IBM Almaden Sept 27th meeting on "Regional Upward Spirals: The Co-Evolution of Future Technologies, Skills, Jobs, and Quality-of-Life"
GIG economy - Human Resource management - Manu Melwin Joymanumelwin
A gig economy is an environment in which temporary positions are common and organizations contract with independent workers for short-term engagements.
This presentation was delivered in January 2010 to the Hartford Area Business Economists (HABE) in Hartford, CT. It focuses on the changing nature of work and implications for regional economic development.
The purpose of this research is to determine the impact on employment from information and communication technologies. Prior research has shown that both communication and automation are
displacing jobs, mainly those with middle-level skills.
ICTs are currently generating employment in developing countries as they make business and government operations more efficient but this may not be the case in the long term given Latin Americas’ weak economic and political environment. The region could be relegated to offer low wage services, potentially increasing poverty in the region.
A statistical analysis of a panel of 23 Latin American countries over a 20 year period indicates that mobile phones do not appear to be either helpful or harmful to service employment. Broadband, because penetration is low, it is not surprising that is shows a positive effect. Education is significant and negative, which could be explained by low levels of education as all
of the countries in the study are listed close to the bottom of the PISA rankings. Other factors that
negatively impact employment are capital formation, burdensome bureaucracies and corruption.
The paper concludes with policy recommendations.
This is follow-up from the IBM Almaden Sept 27th meeting on "Regional Upward Spirals: The Co-Evolution of Future Technologies, Skills, Jobs, and Quality-of-Life"
Future of Work
The future of work is increasingly uncertain. What is clear is that we are in the midst of a major transformation driven by multiple drivers of change. How individuals, companies, cities and governments respond to the upcoming shifts will be pivotal for future economic and social wellbeing, but this is far from straightforward. Some major decisions lie ahead.
Ahead of a speech to MPs in London next month and several subsequent expert discussions, this is a point of view on how, where and why the future of work is in flux.
It explores three key drivers of change as leaders around the world view it – shifting demographics, technology innovation and the organisational response. In addition, we have highlighted several areas where new policy decisions need to be made.
Beyond the Gig Economy: How New Technologies Are Reshaping the Future of WorkThumbtack, Inc.
Thumbtack's newest economic report describes how skilled professionals are using new platforms to find new work and build their business – and their lives. Called “Beyond the Gig Economy: How New Technologies Are Reshaping the Future of Work,” this report explores how technology enables buyers and sellers of services to connect, moving the conversation beyond a one dimensional discussion of the so-called gig economy.
The main objective of this study was to investigate the challenges and opportunities of growth of
MSEs in Asella town. MSEs have been regarded as the machine of economic growth and development all over
the world. It also play a crucial role in the development of the economy with their effective, efficient, flexible
and innovative entrepreneurial spirit
Future of Work
The future of work is increasingly uncertain. What is clear is that we are in the midst of a major transformation driven by multiple drivers of change. How individuals, companies, cities and governments respond to the upcoming shifts will be pivotal for future economic and social wellbeing, but this is far from straightforward. Some major decisions lie ahead.
Ahead of speeches in London, Kuala Lumpur and several subsequent expert discussions, this is a point of view on how, where and why the future of work is in flux.
It explores three key drivers of change as leaders around the world view it – shifting demographics, technology innovation and the organisational response. In addition, we have highlighted several areas where new policy decisions need to be made.
The full text of the talk and more details are available on https://www.futureagenda.org/news/future-of-work
An accompanying infographic is also on
https://www.futureagenda.org/news/future-of-work1
Executive Summary. Thriving in a Turbulent, Technological and Transformed Global Economy | Council on Competitiveness 900 17th Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20006 T 202 682 4292 Compete.org
Re-Dynamizing the Job Machine in MENA (English)Husain Tamimi
The “Re-Dynamizing the Job Machine: Technology-Driven Transformation of Labor Markets in MENA,” report has been produced jointly by INSEAD Business School, the Center for Economic Growth and SAP MENA and was launched launched on the evening of 21 May during WEF 2015. The report emphasizes that technology will be a “game changer” in tackling youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa’s emerging Digital Economy, but only if the government, private, and people sectors collaborate effectively.
On 26 November 2020, Ms Libby Lyons, CEO of Workplace Gender Equality Agency released *Australia’s Gender Equality Scorecard showing employers action on gender equality had stalled. Libby recently spoke to Omesh Jethwani, Government Projects & Programs Manager.
STEM jobs (97 occupations that fall into the science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields) are part of a critical cycle of economic growth. They are vital for national competitiveness, fueling the economy and creating more downstream jobs.
Future of Work
The future of work is increasingly uncertain. What is clear is that we are in the midst of a major transformation driven by multiple drivers of change. How individuals, companies, cities and governments respond to the upcoming shifts will be pivotal for future economic and social wellbeing, but this is far from straightforward. Some major decisions lie ahead.
Ahead of a speech to MPs in London next month and several subsequent expert discussions, this is a point of view on how, where and why the future of work is in flux.
It explores three key drivers of change as leaders around the world view it – shifting demographics, technology innovation and the organisational response. In addition, we have highlighted several areas where new policy decisions need to be made.
Beyond the Gig Economy: How New Technologies Are Reshaping the Future of WorkThumbtack, Inc.
Thumbtack's newest economic report describes how skilled professionals are using new platforms to find new work and build their business – and their lives. Called “Beyond the Gig Economy: How New Technologies Are Reshaping the Future of Work,” this report explores how technology enables buyers and sellers of services to connect, moving the conversation beyond a one dimensional discussion of the so-called gig economy.
The main objective of this study was to investigate the challenges and opportunities of growth of
MSEs in Asella town. MSEs have been regarded as the machine of economic growth and development all over
the world. It also play a crucial role in the development of the economy with their effective, efficient, flexible
and innovative entrepreneurial spirit
Future of Work
The future of work is increasingly uncertain. What is clear is that we are in the midst of a major transformation driven by multiple drivers of change. How individuals, companies, cities and governments respond to the upcoming shifts will be pivotal for future economic and social wellbeing, but this is far from straightforward. Some major decisions lie ahead.
Ahead of speeches in London, Kuala Lumpur and several subsequent expert discussions, this is a point of view on how, where and why the future of work is in flux.
It explores three key drivers of change as leaders around the world view it – shifting demographics, technology innovation and the organisational response. In addition, we have highlighted several areas where new policy decisions need to be made.
The full text of the talk and more details are available on https://www.futureagenda.org/news/future-of-work
An accompanying infographic is also on
https://www.futureagenda.org/news/future-of-work1
Executive Summary. Thriving in a Turbulent, Technological and Transformed Global Economy | Council on Competitiveness 900 17th Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20006 T 202 682 4292 Compete.org
Re-Dynamizing the Job Machine in MENA (English)Husain Tamimi
The “Re-Dynamizing the Job Machine: Technology-Driven Transformation of Labor Markets in MENA,” report has been produced jointly by INSEAD Business School, the Center for Economic Growth and SAP MENA and was launched launched on the evening of 21 May during WEF 2015. The report emphasizes that technology will be a “game changer” in tackling youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa’s emerging Digital Economy, but only if the government, private, and people sectors collaborate effectively.
On 26 November 2020, Ms Libby Lyons, CEO of Workplace Gender Equality Agency released *Australia’s Gender Equality Scorecard showing employers action on gender equality had stalled. Libby recently spoke to Omesh Jethwani, Government Projects & Programs Manager.
STEM jobs (97 occupations that fall into the science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields) are part of a critical cycle of economic growth. They are vital for national competitiveness, fueling the economy and creating more downstream jobs.
Inequality, Technology & Job Polarization of the Youth Labor Market in Europe.Kariappa Bheemaiah
While Europe continues to see the ramifications of the crisis and is threatened by the exit of Greece from its fold, a bigger and more long-standing crisis has been brewing in the background since well before the crisis.
The situation of inequality from the youth perspective has received relatively little academic research. However, our research shows that in light of technological change and with the advent of increased automation, not only is the definition of work undergoing a change, but is the employment opportunity landscape for young people in Europe.
Using Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering Techniques, we compare the situation youth employability and inequality for 28 EU countries, before and after the crisis. Our analysis shows that with technology , especially ICT, making a bigger impact on the definition of tasks and skills, the youth of Europe can no longer simply rely on education as a way of escaping inequality. The youth today require more a more entrepreneurially nourishing landscape coupled with an infrastructure that allows for information to grow in order to have a fighting chance to overcome inequality and define a new sense of work in today's digital age.
I explored some ideas and shared some information with various groups within the College in Thunder Bay, Ont on 23rd January. This is the deck I dipped in / out of. No one group saw all of these slides and all groups saw some of the same slides. Dip in and explore.
Jobs for the Future: Using Technology to Empower in the 21st Century EconomyTess Gilman Posner
There are trends that are significantly impacting work and the economy. The pace of change is increasing and the skills we need to be successful in the new economy are evolving. Unfortunately, if we continue with some of the current trends, some people stand to benefit from the way that work is evolving, and others could be excluded. Read more about the future of work trends and how technology can be an equalizer and begin to present new opportunities for those that are excluded.
The Current IT Labor Ecosystem | WhitepaperACTIVE Network
In the long history of labor forces, there perhaps has never been a more in-demand and competitive candidate pool than today’s technology workers. While this candidate-driven market is driving technology innovation, it is also placing added pressure on IT hiring managers to not only stay consistently engaged in the hiring process, but also to continue to offer increasingly lucrative compensation packages, engaging projects and a compelling corporate culture in order to remain competitive in the current IT hiring ecosystem.
Alisee de Tonnac's opening speech for Seedstars Summit 2015.Seedstars World
Seedstars World CEO Alisee de Tonnac delivers her opening speech for the Seedstars Summit from 2015. Within it, she highlights just how much potential for growth there is in emerging markets, as well as showing some live-changing success stories.
The Future of Work: Using Tech to Empower in the Digital EconomyTess Gilman Posner
Learn about the trends shaping the future of work and why it matters for us today.
Live broadcast at http://video.citris.berkeley.edu/playlists/webcast/.
Ask questions live on Twitter: #CITRISRE. All talks may be viewed on
our YouTube channel.
Aly Rashed - Economic Research Forum
ERF 25th Annual Conference
Knowledge, Research Networks & Development Policy
10-12 March, 2019
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Massoud Karshenas - University of London
ERF 25th Annual Conference
Knowledge, Research Networks & Development Policy
10-12 March, 2019
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Rediscovering Industrial Policy for the 21st Century: Where to Start?Economic Research Forum
Rohinton P. Medhora - Centre for International Governance & Innovation
ERF 25th Annual Conference
Knowledge, Research Networks & Development Policy
10-12 March, 2019
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Rana Hendy - Doha Institute
Mahmoud Mohieldin - World Bank
ERF 25th Annual Conference
Knowledge, Research Networks & Development Policy
10-12 March, 2019
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Ibrahim Elbadawi - Economic Research Forum
ERF 25th Annual Conference
Knowledge, Research Networks & Development Policy
10-12 March, 2019
KuwaitCity, Kuwait
Raimundo Soto - Catholic University of Chile
ERF Training on Advanced Panel Data Techniques Applied to Economic Modelling
29 -31 October, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
PPT Item # 9 - 2024 Street Maintenance Program(SMP) Amendment
The Future of Jobs is Facing the Biggest Policy Induced Price Distortion in History
1. The Future of Jobs is Facing the
Biggest Policy Induced Price
Distortion in History
Lant Pritchett
Blavatnik School of Government
March 12, 2019
ERF 25th Anniversary
2. Many countries, globally and in MENA, face the
challenge of large and growing numbers of very
low skilled (on academic basics) youth
Demographic future Low (<425) Medium
(425<S<475)
High
(most OECD)
Very high
(High East
Asia)
Inverted pyramid
(declining absolute
numbers in labor
force)
Most of
Europe
(Western
and Eastern)
Japan, China
Stable populations Indonesia,
India, most
of Latin
America
Turkey Vietnam
Thick demographic
pyramid, large
proportion of young,
rising population
Zambia
(most of
Africa)
3. OECD countries are worried about the future job
prospects of low and medium skill workers
(PISA) as they might be replaced by “robots”
5.1
17.0
20.7
25.3
21.6
4.5
1.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Below level 1c
or not in school
Level 1a to 1c Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6
Netherlands
Netherlands
“”High skill” in OECD are
The competitive college destined
(top 10 percent), above 625
Medium skill are
480-625,
This is where the
median worker
in the OECD is,
The “ good HS graduates”
“Low skill” in OECD
(bottom 40 percent)
Is below 407
4. The situation in Guatemala (in the range of most MENA
countries) is completely different—massive left shift of
schooling and learning distribution
0.05
0.18
0.22
0.27
0.23
0.05
0.01
0.53
0.33
0.11
0.03
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Below level 1c
or not in school
Level 1a to 1c Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6
Netherlands
Guatemala
There are
(essentially)
no high skill
The “elite” (top
5 percent) are
OECD medium
Skill
97 percent of
15 year olds
are OECD low
skill
5. University graduates in the capital city (Jakarta)
of Indonesia (PISA around 400) had the same
adult literacy as high school drop-outs in
Denmark
169
231
260
234
292
313
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
Jakarta (Indonesia) OECD average Japan
PIAAC Score on
Literacy
Profiencey
Less than upper
secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
6. Survey of youth aged 14 to 18
Level of
Schooling
Percent
correct
Less than 8
years complete
8 or more years
of school
complete
Enrolled as
undergraduate
7. Survey of youth aged 14 to 18
Level of
Schooling
Percent
correct
Less than 8
years complete
26.8
8 or more years
of school
complete
41.4
Enrolled as
undergraduate
54.4
8. The challenge (economic, social, political)
over the next 20 to 30 years for many
developing countries is to:
a) employ productively a youth bulge
(magnitude depending on stage of
demographic transition)
b) labor that is (globally) very low skill
c) and generate at least some exports
(depending on natural endowment)
9. My first two points are that:
• The border based barriers to the mobility of
(especially) low-skill labor by the rich industrial
countries create the largest price distortion
(bigger by two orders of magnitude than border
based trade barriers) today—maybe the largest in
history
• This price distortion creates motivation for the
world’s scarcest resources (high end
entrepreneurial and technological talent) to
create technology that displaces a globally
abundant resource—low skill labor
10. The Place Premium (with Michael
Clemens and Claudio Montenegro)
• Using a combination of US Census and a
collection of labor force surveys we compare the
wages of observational equivalent workers (male,
30-35, urban resident, wage earning, born in
same country, educated in same country) one
working in the US versus their country of birth
• Adjusting that for potential selection effects on
observed variables econometrically
• This is the price (ad valorem tariff) equivalent of
the complex scheme of border based barriers to
low skill labor mobility (p=p*(1+τ))
11. Country Annual income of
low skill worker
in the US, $/hour
in 2000
Upper bound (using
Altonji-Oster
adjustment for
selectivity) estimate of
the annual wage in
home country (adjusted
for PPP) of the same,
equal productivity,
worker
Gain from labor
mobility for a low skill
worker
Price equivalent
(percent
distortion)
Pop’l, 15-49,
millions
Yemen $23,042 $1,408 $21,634 1537% 7.60
Nigeria $18,689 $1,186 $17,503 1476% 57.01
Egypt $20,739 $1,712 $19,028 1112% 33.91
Cambodia $24,026 $2,626 $21,401 815% 5.91
Vietnam $19,820 $2,624 $17,196 655% 43.73
Cameroon $21,348 $3,395 $17,952 529% 7.11
Sierra Leone $18,459 $2,944 $15,514 527% 1.86
Ghana $20,179 $3,238 $16,941 523% 9.08
Indonesia $21,194 $3,423 $17,771 519% 117.26
India $23,846 $4,021 $19,825 493% 544.70
Unweighted average (total for population) of 10
countries with largest distortion
$21,134 $2,658 $18,476 828.16
13. The highest average tariffs on dutiable
imports ever was in US history was 60
(versus 500 to 1000 percent)
14. Two orders of magnitude higher then
tariffs on any sector (10 percent vs
1000 percent)
G20 tariffs are
almost never
higher than 10
percent on
average in any
sector
15. Estimates of the impacts of non-tariff barriers across
countries and goods almost never are above 100
percent (and average under 10)—the lowest of the top
10 countries the is around 500 percent
Source: Ghodsi, Gruebler, and Stehrer, 2016
16. Widely accepted that the “price equivalents” of
border based restrictions on low skill labor
mobility into OECD countries are massive
• Consistent with all the data on low skill wages,
adjusted for observed and observed
characteristics (place premium), by occupation,
even by exact same job.
• Consistent with the large spending/effort on
enforcement
• Consistent with large risks movers are willing to
take in order to evade restrictions
• Consistent with large scale unrealized but
expressed desire for mobility
17. Male labor force participation rates, by education level
in the USA: fallen by almost 15 percentage points for
HS or less
19. The many ways in which
“innovation” displaces “low skill
jobs”
20. Home Labor Informal Sector “Jobs”
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
21. Home Labor Informal Sector “Jobs”
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
General replacement of all labor by capital
22. Home Labor
(or co-
production)
Small scale
Sector
“Jobs”
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
Skill biased technological change that reduces
demand for low skill labor: Introduction of office
technology that has high skill labor perform their
own services (computers, email), machines
(“robots”) in factories
23. Home Labor
and/or
coproduction
Small scale
sector
“Jobs” in large
firms
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
Technology that shifts
from Jobs to small scale
(e.g. Uber, Airbnb)
24. Home Labor
and/or
coproduction
Small scale
sector
“Jobs” in large
firms
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
Home appliances: Washers,
dishwashers, vacuum cleaners
Yardwork: Mowers, snow
blowers
Computer retailing
Online travel booking
25. Home Labor
and/or
coproduction
Small scale
sector
“Jobs” in large
firms
Low
Skill
Low
Skill
High
Skill
High
Skill
Labor
Capital, machines,
machines
+”technology”
Employment
Self checkout at retail stores,
Check-in at airlines (at home and
airport),
26. The self-driving vehicle (car, truck):
Why do the richest people on the
planet want to destroy jobs?
27. Numbers currently employed
Driver occupations Number (in '000s)
School bus 497.3
Bus 167.8
Driver/Sales 445.8
Heavy Truck 1797.7
Truck 530.9
Light 884.7
Taxi 233.7
Total 4557.9
28. Gains to US wages over current local
wages (times 50 percent)
Country Hourly wage
Hourly
wage*1.5
Gain to US wage over
1.5*home wage in PPP
MWI $0.52 $0.78 $39,285
MDG $0.85 $1.28 $38,244
IDN $0.90 $1.36 $38,085
BWA $1.10 $1.64 $37,485
MDA $1.13 $1.69 $37,387
MEX $1.27 $1.90 $36,954
ZMB $1.43 $2.14 $36,446
PHL $1.62 $2.43 $35,846
JOR $1.74 $2.62 $35,461
KHM $1.78 $2.68 $35,338
CIV $1.89 $2.83 $35,018
ROM $2.09 $3.14 $34,376
PAK $2.13 $3.19 $34,267
LVA $2.28 $3.42 $33,795
PER $2.58 $3.86 $32,869
THA $2.60 $3.90 $32,795
29. New evidence from elimination of
Bracero in the USA
The elimination of 20,000
low skill seasonal farm
workers from Mexico had
zero positive impact on
domestic employment
(really zero)—mostly
output fell, crops
changed, technology
adopted
30. New evidence from elimination of
Bracero (Clemens, Lewis, Postel 2018)
31. How does one get to optimism from a
10 to the 10th change in price of
computing due to Moore’s law since
1960 and US labor market outcomes?
32. Developing countries are trying to
provide jobs for very low skilled labor
pushing uphill against a pattern of
R&D and innovation and technology
that are biased towards “labor saving”
and “job destroying” technological
change by the largest existing policy
induced price distortion (by a factor of
two) in the global economy
33. How crazy is this? Automated check-in
in the Delhi airport?
34. Third Point: Elites are choosing
machines over people
• “Jobs” are a way of constructing labor employment that has
positive externalities in facilitating taxes:
– Jensen (2016) shows a large part of the ability of rich countries
to have and sustain higher tax/gdp ratios is the ease of taxing
“jobs” over “employment” (and home production)
– Lindert ( ) shows the rise of schemes of social protection against
risk (health insurance, employment insurance) accounts for
most of the rise in government
– Most developing country governments are stuck with too few
“jobs” relative to employment and hence dual labor markets
with benefits provided through jobs, making them
expensive….the “persons not jobs” is great rhetoric for countries
with jobs but not “advice” for countries that already have
people and not jobs”
37. Important questions
• Do the rich Gulf states have it globally right by
allowing people to move to do non-tradables
rather than invent and adopt machines?
• Is the Digital Revolution a counter-revolution
against the social contract implicit in “jobs
with benefits”?