14. WORKSHEET ON INDUSTRY ATTRACTIVENESS - PORTER'S FIVE
I. Barriers to Entry and/or Mobility Yes No
(+) (-)
Do large incumbent firms have a cost or performance advantage in your segment of the industry`? Do costs decline
significantly with volume? (called scale economies.)
Are there any proprietary product differences in your industry? For example, are products protected by patents?
Are there established brand identities in your industry?
Do your customers incur any significant costs in switching suppliers? For example, to change suppliers do customers
have to invest in learning new programs, or procedures (e.g., computer software)?
Is a lot of capital needed to enter your industry? (A new semiconductor fabricating facility cost over $1 billion.)
Is serviceable used equipment unavailable/expensive? For a counter example, there is a well developed market for
used aircraft. Aircraft are widely available to airlines; although prices vary depending on demand.
Does the newcomer to your industry face difficulty in accessing distribution channels? Traditionally in the
pharmaceutical industry it has been difficult for small (generic) companies, because they lack a detail sales force, to
get their products accepted by prescribing physicians.
Does experience help you to continuously lower costs? Different than scale economies, experience effects are not
directly related to volume. Experience effects mean incumbent firms have figured out how to do it better and
cheaper; and it would be difficult for less experienced firm to gain this knowledge without going through the same
process. (i.e., The experience advantage is path dependent.)
Does a newcomer have any problems in obtaining the necessary skilled people, materials or suppliers? It is difficult
to enter the mining industry unless you have access to a low cost mineral source.
18. A Nine-Cell Industry Attractiveness-
Competitive Strength Matrix
COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS/BUSINESS POSITION
Strong Average Weak
High Business F Business A
LONG-TERM
INDUSTRY Medium
ATTRACTIVENESS
Business C Business B
High priority for investment
Low
Medium priority for investment
Business E Business D
Low priority for investment
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your visual business knowledge
24. Temel tatlardan vazgeçilmiyor
Consumption Behavior – Past 6 Months
Aynı marka fakat daha az miktarda/sıklıkta
Değişmeyen tüketim
• Çay • Cips
• Sigara • Bisküvi
• Yoğurt • Bira
• Diş macunu • Alkollü İçecekler
• Süt • Gazlı İçecekler
• Güneş kremi • Çikolata
• Şampuan • Deodorant
• Hijyenik ped
• Margarin
Aynı miktarda/sıklıkta tüketim – daha ucuz Daha ucuz marka – daha az tüketim
marka
• Tuvalet kağıdı • Çamaşır suyu
• Sıvı yağlar • El/Yüz/Vücut kremi
• Bebek bezleri • Yüzey temizleyicisi
25. Tüketicilerin %56’sı paketli gıda yerine market harcamalarını
azaltan açık gıda alımına yöneldi
Base: Kiloyla alışveriş yapmaya başlamış olan
muhataplar (n=349)
Kaynak: Nielsen Omnibus – Şubat 09
26. Tüketici Güven Endeksi vs GSYH (PPP* US$)
Zengin ama mutlu değil Zengin ve mutlu
Fakir ve mutlu değil
Fakir ama mutlu
*Purchasing Power Parity
Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey – 2nd Half 2008;
ACNielsen Analysis; The CIA World Factbook
Crosshairs = global average
27. Zaruri ihtiyaçlar dışında elde kalan para varsa borç
ödeniyor
Eylül 2008
2007
%44
%34
%32
%27
%29
%26
%19
%19
%8
%9 Nielsen Global Omni
2008 2. Yarıyıl Değerlendirmesi
35. Market Markaları Bilinirliği
• Alışveriş yapanların büyük bölümü marketlerin markalarından haberdar. Bim ve Migros alışveriş
yapanların yarısı tarafından biliniyor. Ardından Carrefour ve Tansaş geliyor.
Baz: Tüm Süpermarket/Hipermarket müşterileri (n=954)
Ref: Q62a
43. Profitability of US Industries (selected industries only)
Median return on equity (%), 1999-2005
Household & Personal Products 22.7 Gas & Electric Utilities 10.4
Pharmaceuticals 22.3 Food and Drug Stores 10.0
Tobacco 21.6 Motor Vehicles & Parts 9.8
Food Consumer Products 19.6 Hotels, Casinos, Resorts 9.7
Securities 18.9 Railroads 9.0
Diversified financials 18.3 Insurance: Life and Health 8.6
Beverages 18.8 Packaging & Containers 8.6
Mining & crude oil 17.8 Insurance: Property & Casualty 8.3
Petroleum Refining 17.3 Building Materials, Glass 8.3
Medical Products & Equipment 17.2 Metals 8.0
Commercial Banks 15.5 Food Production 7.2
Scientific & Photographic Equipt. 15.0 Forest and Paper Products 6.6
Apparel 14.4 Semiconductors &
Computer Software 13.9 Electronic Components 5.9
Publishing, Printing 13.5 Telecommunications 4.6
Health Care 13.1 Communications Equipment 1.2
Electronics, Electrical Equipment 13.0 Entertainment 0.2
Specialty Retailers 13.0 Airlines (22.0)
Computers, Office Equipment 11.7
44. The Profitability of Global Industries: Return on Invested Capital, 1963-2003
Utilities 6,2
Telecom services 6,5
Transporation 6,9
Energy 7,7
Materials 8,4
OVERALL AVERAGE 9
Retailing 9
Consumer durables and apparel 9,5
Food retailing 9,6
Capital goods 9,9
Automobiles and components 9,9
Technology hardware and equipment 10,3
Hotels, restaurants, leisure 10,3
Food, beverages, tobacco 11
Healthcare equipmernt and services 11,3
Semiconductors 11,9
Commercial services 12,8
Media 14,7
Computer software and services 15
Household and personal products 15,2
Pharmaceuticals 18,4
0 5 10 15 20
Average ROIC 1963-2003 (%)
45. From Environmental Analysis
to Industry Analysis
The national/ The natural
international environment
economy
THE
INDUSTRY
Demographic
Technology ENVIRONME structure
NT
• Suppliers
Government Social structure
Social structure
& Politics • Competitors
• Customers
•The Industry Environment lies at the core of the Macro Environment.
•The Macro Environment impacts the firm through its effect on the Industry
Environment.
46. Drawing Industry Boundaries :
Identifying the Relevant Market
• What industry is BMW in:
– World Auto industry
– European Auto industry
– World luxury car industry?
• Key criterion: SUBSTITUTABILITY
– On the demand side : are buyers willing to substitute between
types of cars and across countries
– On the supply side : are manufacturers able to switch
production between types of cars and across countries
• We may need to analyze industry at different levels of
aggregation for different types of decision
47. The Spectrum of Industry Structures
Perfect
Oligopoly Duopoly Monopoly
Competition
Concentration Many firms A few firms Two firms One firm
Entry and ExitNo/Low barriers Significant barriers High barriers
Barriers
Product Homogeneous
Differentiation Product Potential for product differentiation
Perfect
Information Imperfect availability of information
Information flow
48. Porter’s Five Forces of Competition Framework
SUPPLIE
RS
Bargaining power of suppliers
INDUSTRY
COMPETITORS
POTENTIAL Threat of Threat of
SUBSTITUTES
ENTRANTS
new entrants Rivalry among substitutes
existing firms
Bargaining power of buyers
BUYERS
49. The Structural Determinants of Competition
SUPPLIER POWER
• Supplier concentration
• Relative bargaining
power
THREAT OF ENTRY INDUSTRY SUBSTITUTE
•Capital requirements RIVALRY COMPETITION
•Economies of scale •Concentration
•Absolute cost advantage • Buyers’ propensity
•Diversity of
to substitute
•Product differentiation competitors
• Relative prices &
•Access to distribution •Product differentiation
channels performance of
•Excess capacity &
substitutes
•Legal/ regulatory barriers exit barriers
•Retaliation •Cost conditions
BUYER POWER
• Buyers’ price sensitivity
• Relative bargaining
power
50. SUPPLIER POWER
LOW
DRUG
INDUSTRY
(ROE=22%)
THREAT OF ENTRY
LOW INDUSTRY
COMPETITIVENESS
•economies of scale LOW THREAT OF
•capital requirements SUBSTITUTES
for R&D and clinical •high concentration LOW
trials •product differentiation
•product differentiation •patent protection No substitutes.
•control of distribution •steady demand growth (Changing as managed care
channels •no cyclical fluctuations encourages generics.)
•patent protection of demand
BUYER POWER
LOW
Physician as buyer:
Not price sensitive
No bargaining power.
(Changing with managed care.)
51. SUPPLIER POWER
LOW
DRUG
INDUSTRY
(ROE=22%)
THREAT OF ENTRY
LOW INDUSTRY
COMPETITIVENESS
•economies of scale LOW THREAT OF
•capital requirements SUBSTITUTES
for R&D and clinical •high concentration LOW
trials •product differentiation
•product differentiation •patent protection No substitutes.
•control of distribution •steady demand growth (Changing as managed care
channels •no cyclical fluctuations encourages generics.)
•patent protection of demand
BUYER POWER
LOW
Physician as buyer:
Not price sensitive
No bargaining power.
(Changing with managed care.)
52. The Traditional Model of Industry Life Cycle
Fermentation Shakeout Maturity Decline
Sales volume
Time
53. How Typical is the Life Cycle Pattern?
• Technology-intensive industries (e.g. pharmaceuticals,
semiconductors, computers) may retain features of
emerging industries.
• Other industries (especially those providing basic
necessities, e.g. food processing, construction, apparel)
reach maturity, but not decline.
• Industries may experience life cycle regeneration.
Sales Sales Color
B&W Portable
HDTV
?
1900 50 90 07 1930 50 70 90 07
MOTORCYCLES TV’s
• Life cycle model can help us to anticipate industry
evolution—but dangerous to assume any common, pre-
determined pattern of industry development
54. The Driving Forces of Industry Evolution
BASIC CONDITIONS INDUSTRY STRUCTURE COMPETITION
Customers become
more knowledgeable Customers become
& experienced more price conscious
Quest for new
sources of
differentiation
Products become
more standardized
Diffusion of
Price competition
technology Production intensifies
Production shifts
becomes less R&D
to low-wage
& skill-intensive
countries
Excess capacity
increases
Demand growth Bargaining power
slows as market of distributors
saturation approaches Distribution channels increases
consolidate
55. Changes in the Population of Firms over the
Industry Life Cycle: US Auto Industry 1885-1961
250
200
150
No. of firms
100
50
0
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955
e: S. Klepper, Industrial & Corporate Change, August 2002, p. 654.
IN – HİNDİSTAN DK – DANİMARKA ID – ENDONEZYA AE – BİRLEŞİK ARAP EMİRLİKLERİ NO – NORVEÇ BR – BREZİLYA AU – AVUSTURALYA RU – RUSYA PH – FİLİPİNLER NL – HOLLANDA PL – POLONYA NZ – YENİ ZELENDA VN – VİETNAM CH – İSVİÇRE CA – KANADA CO – KOLOMBİYA CN – ÇİN VE – VENEZUELA IL – İSRAİL AR – ARJANTİN PK – PAKİSTAN FI – FİNLANDİYA SG – SİNGAPUR RO – ROMANYA TH – TAYLAND HK – HONG KONG SE – İSVEÇ MY – MALEZYA CZ – ÇEK CUMHURİYETİ AT – AVUSTURYA ZA – GÜNEY AFRİKA BE –BELÇİKA MX – MEKSİKA US- - ABD CL - ŞİLİ IE – İRLANDA LT – LETONYA ES – İSPANYA DE – ALMANYA EG – MISIR GB – İNGİLTERE EE – ESTONYA GR – YUNANİSTAN IT – ITALYA HU – MACARİSTAN LV –LİTVANTA TR – TÜRKİYE FR – FRANSA TW - TAYVAN PT - PORTEKİZ JP – JAPONYA KO – GÜNEY KORE
Here is a summary of retailer developments since the establishment of Turkish Republic. Migros and Gima started as first supermarkets in the country in ‘50s, while modern trade development started in 90s.