Product development is inherently risky. While lean and agile methods are praised for supporting rapid feedback from customers through experiments and continuous iteration, teams could do a lot better at prioritizing using basic modeling techniques from finance. This talk will focus on quantitative risk modeling when developing new products or services that do not have a well understood product/market fit scenario. Using modeling approaches like Monte Carlo simulations and Cost of Delay scenarios, combined with qualitative tools like the Lean Canvas and Value Dynamics, we will explore how lean innovation teams can bring scientific rigor back into their process.