https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20190503133014301 Abstract: The term demand dispatch refers to the creation of virtual energy storage from deferrable loads. The key to success is automation: an appropriate distributed control architecture ensures that bounds on quality of service (QoS) are met and simultaneously ensures that the loads provide aggregate grid services comparable to a large battery system. A question addressed in our 2018 CDC paper is how to control a large collection of heterogeneous loads. This is in part a resource allocation problem, since different classes of loads are more valuable for different services. The evolution of QoS for each class of loads is modeled via a state of charge surrogate, which is a part of the leaky battery model for the load classes. The goal of this paper is to unveil the structure of the optimal solution and investigate short term market implications. The following conclusions are obtained:
(i) Optimal power deviation for each of the M 2 load classes evolves in a two-dimensional manifold.
(ii) Marginal cost for each load class evolves in a two-dimensional subspace: spanned by a co-state process and its derivative.
(iii) The preceding conclusions are applied to construct a dynamic competitive equilibrium model, in which the consumer utility is the negative of the cost of deviation from ideal QoS. It is found that a competitive equilibrium exists, and that the resulting price signals are very different than what would be obtained based on the standard assumption that the utility is with respect to power consumption. It is argued that price signals are not useful for control of the grid since they are inherently open loop. However, the analysis may inform the creation of heuristics for payments within the context of contracts for services with consumers.
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State Space Collapse in Resource Allocation for Demand Dispatch - May 2019
1. Resource Allocation for Demand Dispatch
State Space Collapse & Market Implications
May 3, 2019
Sean Meyn
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Florida
Inria International Chair Inria, Paris
Based on joint research with Joel Mathias
and Ana BuĖsiĀ“c, Neil Cammardella, & Robert Moye
Thanks to to our sponsors: NSF, DOE, ARPA-E,
3. Balancing Reserves for my GRID
Comfort for me and my owner
Recaps from January
Happy Grid, Loads and Customers
4. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
Sun
0
1
-1
GW
AGC/Secondary control +
2 / 23
5. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
ā¢ Peak shaving
2 / 23
6. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
ā¢ Peak shaving
Modified Prices with Demand Dispatch
2 / 23
7. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
ā¢ Peak shaving
ā¢ Ramp service
GW
Forecasted peak: 29,549Forecasted peak: 29,549
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
17
22
27
32
2 / 23
8. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
ā¢ Peak shaving
ā¢ Ramp service
GW
Forecasted peak: 29,549Forecasted peak: 29,549
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
17
22
27
32
Modified Load with Demand Dispatch
2 / 23
9. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Ancillary services to match supply and demand:
ā¢ Balancing Reserves
ā¢ Peak shaving
ā¢ Ramp service
ā¢ Contingency support
59.915 Hz
60.010 Hz Modified Load with Demand Dispatch
2 / 23
10. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Duck Curves: California in March 2018
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
Generation at CAISO March 4, 2018
March 4: nearly 50% of demand was served by solar at 1pm
March 5: record solar production, over 10GW at 10am
3 / 23
11. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Duck Curves: California in March 2018
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
Generation at CAISO March 4, 2018
Implications:
15 GW upward ramp in three hours; 7 GW ramp in just one hour
Morning downward ramp of 10 GW in three hours
10 GW of thermal generation needed for just a few hours
3 / 23
12. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Duck Curves: California in March 2018
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
Net Load
3 / 23
13. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Goals of our Research
Duck Curves: California in March 2018
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
Net Load with Demand Dispatch
Net Load
Load ļ¬exibility in California can be used to ļ¬atten the duck
3 / 23
14. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Virtual Energy Storage
Rational agent wants a hot shower
http://www.onsetcomp.com/learning/application_stories/multi-channel-data-loggers-improve-forensic-analysis-complex-domestic-hot-water-complaints
Ī(t)
G(t)
Ambient
Temperature
Inlet Water
Temperature
3 kW
Power and temperature evolution in a water heater
4 / 23
15. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Virtual Energy Storage
Rational agent wants a hot shower
80
100
120
140
80
100
120
140
0
MWMW
-10
0
10
Tracking Typical Load Response
temp(F)temp(F)
rtā”0Noreg:|rt|ā¤10MW
LoadOnLoadOn
BPA Reference:
Power Deviation
rt
G(t) (of interest to BA) Spike Train
Ī(t) (of interest to home) Smooth
Mismatch = gift to the control engineer
4 / 23
16. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Virtual Energy Storage
Rational agent wants a hot shower
Power GridControl Flywheels
Batteries
Coal
GasTurbine
BP
BP
BP C
BP
BP
Voltage
Frequency
Phase
HC
Ī£
ā
Actuator feedback loop
A
LOAD
G(t) (of interest to BA) Spike Train
Ī(t) (of interest to home) Smooth
Mismatch = gift to the control engineer
4 / 23
17. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Where are the rational agents?
Eļ¬cient Equilibrium
max
GS
E eāĪ³t
WS(t) dt max
GD
E eāĪ³t
WD(t) dt
The market is eļ¬cient if Gā
S
= Gā
D
5 / 23
18. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Where are the rational agents?
Eļ¬cient Equilibrium
max
GS
E eāĪ³t
WS(t) dt max
GD
E eāĪ³t
WD(t) dt
The market is eļ¬cient if Gā
S
= Gā
D
Imperfect, but reasonable: WS(t) = P(t)GS(t) ā cS(GS(t))
5 / 23
19. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Where are the rational agents?
Eļ¬cient Equilibrium
max
GS
E eāĪ³t
WS(t) dt max
GD
E eāĪ³t
WD(t) dt
The market is eļ¬cient if Gā
S
= Gā
D
Imperfect, but reasonable: WS(t) = P(t)GS(t) ā cS(GS(t))
Not so reasonable: WD(t) = wD(GD(t)) ā P(t)GD(t)
What is the āvalue of powerā to consumers?
80
100
120
140
temp(F)
Consumerservice
LoadOn
5 / 23
20. Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
Where are the rational agents?
Eļ¬cient Equilibrium
max
GS
E eāĪ³t
WS(t) dt max
GD
E eāĪ³t
WD(t) dt
The market is eļ¬cient if Gā
S
= Gā
D
Imperfect, but reasonable: WS(t) = P(t)GS(t) ā cS(GS(t))
Not so reasonable: WD(t) = wD(GD(t)) ā P(t)GD(t)
What is the āvalue of powerā to consumers?
This lecture:
Optimal control and market outcomes with rational agents
5 / 23
21. Irrational Agents and the Power Grid
1 Virtual Energy Storage: Recap from January
2 Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
3 State Space Collapse
4 Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
5 Conclusions
6 References
23. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Minimize cost of supplying forecast net load
Available resources, costs and constraints:
Generation: energy and ramping each come with cost.
Modeled as convex costs on generation and its derivative
1 / 23
24. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Minimize cost of supplying forecast net load
Available resources, costs and constraints:
Generation: energy and ramping each come with cost.
Modeled as convex costs on generation and its derivative
M classes of ļ¬exible loads: air conditioning, refrigeration (residential),
refrigeration (commercial), water heating (residential), water heating
(commercial), irrigation.
1 / 23
25. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Minimize cost of supplying forecast net load
Available resources, costs and constraints:
Generation: energy and ramping each come with cost.
Modeled as convex costs on generation and its derivative
M classes of ļ¬exible loads: air conditioning, refrigeration (residential),
refrigeration (commercial), water heating (residential), water heating
(commercial), irrigation.
The āSoCā (state of charge) is deļ¬ned for each class
(e.g., temperature of WH).
Cost of deviation from nominal behavior: convex function of SoC
1 / 23
26. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Leaky battery model Hao et. al. [10, 11], UF/Inria [4, 1, 3]
āui(t) : deviation of average power consumption from nominal.
xi(t) : deviation of average SoC from nominal for class i at time t.
Water heaters: xi(t) ā deviation of average temperature from nominal.
2 / 23
27. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Leaky battery model Hao et. al. [10, 11], UF/Inria [4, 1, 3]
āui(t) : deviation of average power consumption from nominal.
xi(t) : deviation of average SoC from nominal for class i at time t.
Water heaters: xi(t) ā deviation of average temperature from nominal.
Model: d
dt xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t).
2 / 23
28. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Leaky battery model Hao et. al. [10, 11], UF/Inria [4, 1, 3]
āui(t) : deviation of average power consumption from nominal.
xi(t) : deviation of average SoC from nominal for class i at time t.
Water heaters: xi(t) ā deviation of average temperature from nominal.
Model: d
dt xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t).
Why consider average water heater temperature? (over population)
1) xi(t) represents normalized energy storage at time t for class i
2 / 23
29. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Leaky battery model Hao et. al. [10, 11], UF/Inria [4, 1, 3]
āui(t) : deviation of average power consumption from nominal.
xi(t) : deviation of average SoC from nominal for class i at time t.
Water heaters: xi(t) ā deviation of average temperature from nominal.
Model: d
dt xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t).
Why consider average water heater temperature? (over population)
1) xi(t) represents normalized energy storage at time t for class i
2) SoC constraints appear to be suļ¬cient for tracking
D(p p0
) +
Īŗ
2
T
k=1
Ī½k, U ā rk
2
2 / 23
30. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource allocation for feedforward control
Optimizing demand dispatch
Leaky battery model Hao et. al. [10, 11], UF/Inria [4, 1, 3]
āui(t) : deviation of average power consumption from nominal.
xi(t) : deviation of average SoC from nominal for class i at time t.
Water heaters: xi(t) ā deviation of average temperature from nominal.
Model: d
dt xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t).
Finite-horizon optimal control problem: cX(x) = ci(xi)
min
g,u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t)) + cX(x(t)) dt
2 / 23
31. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource Allocation
The convex formulation
Convex formulation over time-period [0, T ]:
minimize
g, u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t)) + cX(x(t)) dt
subject to (t) = g(t) +
i
ui(t) (net load)
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
: Net Load
3 / 23
32. Social Plannerās Problem (Optimal Control)
Resource Allocation
The convex formulation
Convex formulation over time-period [0, T ]:
minimize
g, u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t)) + cX(x(t)) dt
subject to (t) = g(t) +
i
ui(t) (net load),
d
dt
ui(t) = Ī½i(t), i ā {1, ..., M}
with x(0), u(0) ā RM given
Cost on ui , ui =ā Singular optimal control problem
3 / 23
33. Maxweight scheduling in a generalized switch:
state space collapse and workload minimization in heavy traffic
Stolyar, 2004
Heavy traffic resource pooling in parallel-server systems.
J. M. Harrison and M. J. L opez.
Heavy traffic analysis of open processing networks
with complete resource pooling: Asymptotic optimality of discrete
review policies complete resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of discrete review policies
B. Ata and S. Kumar.
Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers
in heavy traffic with complete resource pooling:
Asymptotic optimality of a continuous review threshold policy.
S. L. Bell and R. J. Williams.
State Space Collapse
35. State Space Collapse
A Langrangian Decomposition
Relax the algebraic constraint
minimize
g, u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t)) + cX(x(t)) dt
subject to [ (t)= g(t) +
i
ui(t)],
d
dt
xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t) , 1 ā¤ i ā¤ M
4 / 23
36. State Space Collapse
A Langrangian Decomposition
Dual functional Ļā
Relax constraint with Lagrange multiplier
Ļā
( ) = inf
g,u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t))
+ cX(x(t)) + (t)[ (t) ā g(t) ā uĻ(t)] dt
Subject to:
d
dt
xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t)
5 / 23
37. State Space Collapse
A Langrangian Decomposition
Dual functional Ļā
Relax constraint with Lagrange multiplier
Ļā
( ) = inf
g,u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t))
+ cX(x(t)) + (t)[ (t) ā g(t) ā uĻ(t)] dt
Subject to:
d
dt
xi(t) = āĪ±ixi(t) ā ui(t)
Separable minimization problem over g, xi
5 / 23
38. State Space Collapse
Grid-operatorās minimization problem
inf
g
T
0
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) dt,
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) = cg(g(t)) + cd(Ėg(t)) ā (t)g(t)
6 / 23
39. State Space Collapse
Grid-operatorās minimization problem
inf
g
T
0
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) dt,
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) = cg(g(t)) + cd(Ėg(t)) ā (t)g(t)
For any C1 function , the optimizer g (t) satisļ¬es the
Euler-Lagrange equation:
ā
āg Lg(g , Ėg , t) ā d
dt
ā
ā Ėg Lg(g , Ėg , t) = 0
6 / 23
40. State Space Collapse
Grid-operatorās minimization problem
inf
g
T
0
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) dt,
Lg(g(t), Ėg(t), t) = cg(g(t)) + cd(Ėg(t)) ā (t)g(t)
For any C1 function , the optimizer g (t) satisļ¬es the
Euler-Lagrange equation:
cg (g (t)) ā (t) ā
d
dt
cd(Ėg (t)) = 0
6 / 23
41. State Space Collapse
Minimization for each load class
inf
xi
T
0
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) dt,
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) = ci xi(t) + Ī±i (t)xi(t) + (t) Ėxi(t)
7 / 23
42. State Space Collapse
Minimization for each load class
inf
xi
T
0
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) dt,
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) = ci xi(t) + Ī±i (t)xi(t) + (t) Ėxi(t)
For any function that is continuously diļ¬erentiable on (0, T ], the
optimizer xi (t) satisļ¬es the Euler-Lagrange equation:
ā
āxi
Li(xi , Ėxi , t) ā d
dt
ā
ā Ėxi
Li(xi , Ėxi , t) = 0
7 / 23
43. State Space Collapse
Minimization for each load class
inf
xi
T
0
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) dt,
Li(xi(t), Ėxi(t), t) = ci xi(t) + Ī±i (t)xi(t) + (t) Ėxi(t)
For any function that is continuously diļ¬erentiable on (0, T ], the
optimizer xi (t) satisļ¬es the Euler-Lagrange equation:
ci (xi (t)) + Ī±i (t) ā
d
dt
(t) = 0
7 / 23
44. State Space Collapse
State space collapse
Optimal SoC evolves in a two dimensional subspace
Recall: Ļā
( ) = inf
g,u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t))
+ cX(x(t)) + (t)[ (t) ā g(t) ā uĻ(t)] dt
8 / 23
45. State Space Collapse
State space collapse
Optimal SoC evolves in a two dimensional subspace
Recall: Ļā
( ) = inf
g,u
T
0
cg(g(t)) + cd(g (t))
+ cX(x(t)) + (t)[ (t) ā g(t) ā uĻ(t)] dt
Assume that a C1 maximizer ā exists: Ļā( ā) ā„ Ļā( ) for all .
8 / 23
46. State Space Collapse
State space collapse
Optimal SoC evolves in a two dimensional subspace
Assume that a C1 maximizer ā exists: Ļā( ā) ā„ Ļā( ) for all .
State space collapse:
ci (xā
i (t)) = āĪ±i
ā
(t) +
d
dt
ā
(t)
Marginal costs evolve on a two-dimensional subspace!
8 / 23
47. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Net load taken from California, March 2018
12 181 6 24
26
22
18
14
10
6
2
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Renewables
Thermal
Imports
Nuclear
Hydro
hours
Generation(GW)
Generation at CAISO March 4, 2018
9 / 23
48. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Net load taken from California, March 2018
Five classes of electric loads:
ACs, residential WHs, commercial WHs, fridges, pools
Time horizon T = 24 hours
Load Parameters
Par. Unit ACs fWHs sWHs RFGs PPs
Ī±i hours-1
0.25 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.004
9 / 23
49. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Given: optimal SoC evolution for ACs, xā
ac(t) and Pools, xā
pp(t)
10 / 23
50. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Given: optimal SoC evolution for ACs, xā
ac(t) and Pools, xā
pp(t)
Recover Lagrange multiplier:
ā(t)
d
dt
ā(t)
=
āĪ±ac 1
āĪ±pp 1
ā1
cac(xā
ac(t))
cpp(xā
pp(t))
10 / 23
51. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Given: optimal SoC evolution for ACs, xā
ac(t) and Pools, xā
pp(t)
Recover Lagrange multiplier:
ā(t)
d
dt
ā(t)
=
āĪ±ac 1
āĪ±pp 1
ā1
cac(xā
ac(t))
cpp(xā
pp(t))
State space collapse ā” Recover SoC for any other load
10 / 23
52. State Space Collapse
Numerical Experiment: state space collapse
Given: optimal SoC evolution for ACs, xā
ac(t) and Pools, xā
pp(t)
Recover Lagrange multiplier:
ā(t)
d
dt
ā(t)
=
āĪ±ac 1
āĪ±pp 1
ā1
cac(xā
ac(t))
cpp(xā
pp(t))
State space collapse ā” Recover SoC for any other load
GWh
AC
Pools
Res WH
Res WH (prediction)
24 Hours 24 Hours
Subspaceprediction
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Water heaters: xā
rwh(t) = (crwh)ā1
(āĪ±rwh
ā
(t) + d
dt
ā
(t))
10 / 23
54. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Dynamic competitive equilibrium and real-time prices
CE model with M + 1 players:
Single supplier of generation g
M consumer classes with power deviation āui
11 / 23
55. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Dynamic competitive equilibrium and real-time prices
Social Plannerās Problem:
max
g,ui
T
0
US(g(t), g (t)) +
M
i=1
UDi (ui(t)) dt
subject to supply equals demand, g(t) = l(t) ā i ui(t) (physics)
11 / 23
56. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Dynamic competitive equilibrium and real-time prices
Social Plannerās Problem:
max
g,ui
T
0
US(g(t), g (t)) +
M
i=1
UDi (ui(t)) dt
Utility functions ā” negative of cost:
UDi (ui) = āci xi), US(g, g ) = ācg(g) ā cd(āg )
11 / 23
57. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Dynamic competitive equilibrium and real-time prices
Social Plannerās Problem:
max
g,ui
T
0
US(g(t), g (t)) +
M
i=1
UDi (ui(t)) dt
Dynamic competitive equilibrium:
uā
i = arg max
ui
T
0
UDi (ui(t)) ā pā
(t)ui(t) dt
gā
= arg max
g
T
0
US(g(t), g (t)) + pā
(t)g(t) dt
pā = ā is the equilibrium price
see also Chen & Low 2011 and Cruise and Zachary 2019 (?)
11 / 23
58. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Price, marginal cost, and marginal value
Averages of prices, marginal cost, and marginal value
avg
=
1
T
T
0
ā
(t) dt
MCavg
g =
1
T
T
0
cg(gā
(t)) dt
MVavg
i = ā
1
T
T
0
ci (xā
i (t)) dt
12 / 23
59. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Price, marginal cost, and marginal value
Return to Euler-Lagrange equations:
ā
(t) = cg (gā
(t)) ā
d
dt
cd(Ėgā
(t))
āĪ±i
ā
(t) = ci (xā
i (t)) ā
d
dt
ā
(t)
Price is not equal to marginal cost or value
12 / 23
60. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Price, marginal cost, and marginal value
Return to Euler-Lagrange equations:
ā
(t) = cg (gā
(t)) ā
d
dt
cd(Ėgā
(t))
āĪ±i
ā
(t) = ci (xā
i (t)) ā
d
dt
ā
(t)
Integrating:
Avg price is approximately the scaled average marginal value:
avg
=
1
Ī±i
MVavg
i + ed
i /T , 1 ā¤ i ā¤ M
Avg price is approximately the average marginal cost:
avg
= MCavg
g + eg
/T
12 / 23
61. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Balancing California in 2018
Optimal load trajectories
Optimal SoC trajectories for a 24 hour time horizon:
-5
0
5
GWhNormalized
AC
Res WH
Comm WH
Refrigerators
Pools
State of Charge
Price
-1
0
1
24 Hours
Net Load 22
18
14
10
20
16
12
8
Load(GW)
13 / 23
62. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Balancing California in 2018
Optimal load trajectories
Optimal SoC trajectories for a 24 hour time horizon:
-5
0
5
GWhNormalized
AC
Res WH
Comm WH
Refrigerators
Pools
State of Charge
Price
-1
0
1
24 Hours
Net Load 22
18
14
10
20
16
12
8
Load(GW)
Prices to devices success story! ā(t) ā¼ (t)!! (approximately)
13 / 23
63. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices for Load Reduction
ā
(t) ā¼ (t) Prices to devices success story?
0 1 2 3 4
-2
-1
0
1
2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SoC(GWh)
20
25
30
power(GW)
hrs
-5
0
5
power(GW)NormalizedOptimalPrice
Net Load piece-wise constant:
AC fWH sWH FR PPuā
i (t) = neg load
similar to ?Price estimate
14 / 23
64. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices for Load Reduction
The solution to the E-L equations tells a diļ¬erent story
0 1 2 3 4
-2
-1
0
1
2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SoC(GWh)
20
25
30
power(GW)
hrs
-5
0
5
power(GW)NormalizedOptimalPrice
Net Load piece-wise constant:
AC fWH sWH FR PPuā
i (t) = neg load
Competitive equilibrium price
is smooth, even when net load is not
14 / 23
65. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January Slightly diļ¬erent formulation: modeled as desired load reduction
TotalPower(GW)
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
1 2 3 4 5
Example: Aggregator has contracts with consumers
7 million residential ACs
700,000 water heaters
700,000 commercial water heaters
17 million refrigerators
All the pools in California
Promises strict bounds on QoS for each customer
15 / 23
66. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January Slightly diļ¬erent formulation: modeled as desired load reduction
TotalPower(GW)
Temperature,cycling,energy
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
1 2 3 4 5
hrs1 2 3 4 5
Example: Aggregator has contracts with consumers
Promises strict bounds on QoS for each customer
ACs
Small WHs
Commercial WHs
Refrigerators
Pools
QoS
15 / 23
67. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January
TotalPower(GW)
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
1 2 3 4 5
Example: Aggregator has contracts with consumers
Balancing authority desires power reduction over 2 hours
Sends PRICE SIGNAL: 10% increase
Aggregator optimizes subject to QoS constraints
Promises strict bounds on QoS for each customer
15 / 23
68. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January
TotalPower(GW)Power(GW)
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
0
2
4
6
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
ACs FWHs
SWHs Fridges
Pools
1 2 3 4 5
Price event: 10% increase
15 / 23
69. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January
TotalPower(GW)Power(GW)
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
0
2
4
6
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
ACs FWHs
SWHs Fridges
Pools
1 2 3 4 5
Price event: 10% increase
15 / 23
70. Dynamic Competitive Equilibrium
Prices to devices optimal response
Recall from January
TotalPower(GW)Power(GW)
0
5
10
15
20
hrs
0
2
4
6
P nominal
P desired
P delivered
ACs FWHs
SWHs Fridges
Pools
1 2 3 4 5
Price event: 10% increase
Intuitive CE price
will blow up the grid
15 / 23
72. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
http://www.onsetcomp.com/learning/application_stories/multi-channel-data-loggers-improve-forensic-analysis-complex-domestic-hot-water-complaints
Ī(t)
G(t)
Ambient
Temperature
Inlet Water
Temperature
3 kW
Power and temperature evolution in a water heater
Proposal: VOLL ?
16 / 23
73. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
http://www.onsetcomp.com/learning/application_stories/multi-channel-data-loggers-improve-forensic-analysis-complex-domestic-hot-water-complaints
Ī(t)
G(t)
Ambient
Temperature
Inlet Water
Temperature
3 kW
Power and temperature evolution in a water heater
Proposal: VOLL VOLQoS
16 / 23
74. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
VOLL VOLQoS
Please remember: Ļā is NOT a price. What is it?
16 / 23
75. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
VOLL VOLQoS
Please remember: Ļā is NOT a price. What is it?
Ļā is a Lagrange multiplier ā as part of a control solution.
It is computed based on forecasts of renewable generation,
and energy needs over the day.
It will be part of an MPC control architecture
16 / 23
76. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
VOLL VOLQoS
Please remember: Ļā is NOT a price. What is it?
Ļā is a Lagrange multiplier ā as part of a control solution.
It is computed based on forecasts of renewable generation,
and energy needs over the day.
It will be part of an MPC control architecture
The CE interpretation is superļ¬cial
16 / 23
77. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Summaries and clariļ¬cations
VOLL VOLQoS
Please remember: Ļā is NOT a price. What is it?
Ļā is a Lagrange multiplier ā as part of a control solution.
It is computed based on forecasts of renewable generation,
and energy needs over the day.
It will be part of an MPC control architecture
We are excited about the model reduction conclusion:
M = 105 load classes
HJB equation dimension = two
16 / 23
78. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Questions answered this semester?
History (of power economics)
How did we get here?
Why are spot prices seen as the control solution?
Can someone ļ¬nd an economic justiļ¬cation?
Fixed cost > 50% of total cost is nothing new! [13, 12]
17 / 23
79. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Questions answered this semester?
History (of power economics)
How did we get here?
Why are spot prices seen as the control solution?
Can someone ļ¬nd an economic justiļ¬cation?
Fixed cost > 50% of total cost is nothing new! [13, 12]
Can we validate the claims that PJM FP&L?
17 / 23
80. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Questions answered this semester?
History (of power economics)
How did we get here?
Why are spot prices seen as the control solution?
Can someone ļ¬nd an economic justiļ¬cation?
Fixed cost > 50% of total cost is nothing new! [13, 12]
Can we validate the claims that PJM FP&L?
Market design: Letās create a theoretical foundation for zero
marginal cost resources such as batteries, wind, and Demand
Dispatch
A working solution requires a CEO model, combined with stable public
policy to enable long-term planning
17 / 23
81. Conclusions Summary and Spring Homework Due
Conclusions
Questions answered this semester?
History (of power economics)
How did we get here?
Why are spot prices seen as the control solution?
Can someone ļ¬nd an economic justiļ¬cation?
Fixed cost > 50% of total cost is nothing new! [13, 12]
Can we validate the claims that PJM FP&L?
Market design: Letās create a theoretical foundation for zero
marginal cost resources such as batteries, wind, and Demand
Dispatch
A working solution requires a CEO model, combined with stable public
policy to enable long-term planning
Control architectures
If our goal is smoothing net-load and congestion control, what is
essentially diļ¬erent between bits vs. watts?
Our work and research@Vermont suggests the gap isnāt always wide
What questions arise when we look seriously at distribution along with
transmission?
17 / 23
84. References
Control Techniques
FOR
Complex Networks
Sean Meyn
Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph available for purchase at your favorite retailer
More information available at http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521884419
References
20 / 23
85. References
Selected References I
[1] J. Mathias, R. Moye, and S. Meyn. State space collapse in resource allocation for
demand dispatch. In IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (submitted), 2019.
[2] N. L. Chen, and S. H. Low, Optimal demand response based on utility maximization in
power networks. IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, July 2011, pp. 1ā8.
[3] N. Cammardella, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, Y. Ji, and S. Meyn. Kullback-Leibler-Quadratic optimal
control of ļ¬exible power demand. In IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
(submitted), 2019.
[4] N. Cammardella, J. Mathias, M. Kiener, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, and S. Meyn. Balancing Californiaās
grid without batteries. In IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control (CDC), pages 7314ā7321,
Dec 2018.
[5] Y. Chen, M. U. Hashmi, J. Mathias, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, and S. Meyn. Distributed control design
for balancing the grid using ļ¬exible loads. In S. Meyn, T. Samad, I. Hiskens, and
J. Stoustrup, editors, Energy Markets and Responsive Grids: Modeling, Control, and
Optimization, pages 383ā411. Springer, New York, NY, 2018.
[6] J. Mathias, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, and S. Meyn. Demand dispatch with heterogeneous intelligent
loads. In Proc. 50th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
(HICSS), and arXiv 1610.00813, 2017.
21 / 23
86. References
Selected References II
[7] J. Mathias, R. Kaddah, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, and S. Meyn. Smart fridge / dumb grid? Demand
Dispatch for the power grid of 2020. In Proc. 49th Annual Hawaii International
Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), pages 2498ā2507, Jan 2016.
[8] Y. Chen, U. Hashmi, J. Mathias, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, and S. Meyn. Distributed Control Design for
Balancing the Grid Using Flexible Loads. In IMA volume on the control of energy
markets and grids Springer, 2018.
[9] S. Meyn, P. Barooah, A. BuĖsiĀ“c, Y. Chen, and J. Ehren. Ancillary service to the grid using
intelligent deferrable loads. IEEE Trans. Automat. Control, 60(11):2847ā2862, Nov 2015.
[10] H. Hao, B. Sanandaji, K. Poolla, and T. Vincent. A generalized battery model of a
collection of thermostatically controlled loads for providing ancillary service. In 51st
Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, pages 551ā558,
Oct 2013.
[11] H. Hao, B. M. Sanandaji, K. Poolla, and T. L. Vincent. Aggregate ļ¬exibility of
thermostatically controlled loads. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 30(1):189ā198, Jan
2015.
[12] H. Lo, S. Blumsack, P. Hines, and S. Meyn. Electricity rates for the zero marginal cost
grid. The Electricity Journal, 32(3):39 ā 43, 2019.
22 / 23
87. References
Selected References III
[13] R. Moye and S. Meyn. Redesign of U.S. electricity capacity markets. In IMA volume on
the control of energy markets and grids. Springer, 2018.
[14] R. Moye and S. Meyn. The use of marginal energy costs in the design of U.S. capacity
markets. In Proc. 51st Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
(HICSS), 2018.
[15] R. Moye and S. Meyn. Scarcity pricing in U.S. wholesale electricity markets. In Proc.
52nd Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS) (submitted),
2018.
[16] M. Negrete-Pincetic. Intelligence by design in an entropic power grid. PhD thesis, UIUC,
Urbana, IL, 2012.
[17] G. Wang, M. Negrete-Pincetic, A. Kowli, E. Shaļ¬eepoorfard, S. Meyn, and U. V.
Shanbhag. Dynamic competitive equilibria in electricity markets. In A. Chakrabortty and
M. Illic, editors, Control and Optimization Methods for Electric Smart Grids, pages
35ā62. Springer, 2012.
[18] R. AĀØıd, D. PossamaĀØı, and N. Touzi. Electricity demand response and optimal contract
theory. SIAM News, 2017.
[19] Coase, R.H. The marginal cost controversy. Econometrica 13(51), 169ā182 (1946)
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