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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 1 – Item 1 - P_Mujumdar

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IUKWC Workshop November 2016: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security
Session 1.1 Pradeep Mujumdar

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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 1 – Item 1 - P_Mujumdar

  1. 1. Hydromet Forecasts and Projections : Some Recent Applications Pradeep Mujumdar Indian Institute of Science Bangalore
  2. 2. Applications of…  Medium Range Weather Forecasts for Irrigation Water Management  Climate Change Projections for Developing Adaptive Responses - Water Resources Systems  Near-Real-Time Forecasts for Urban Floods 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre
  3. 3. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre Discharger 1 Discharger 2 Discharger n Inflow Regulated d/s flow Reservoir A Typical Water Resource System  Power Discharger .. Non Point Source Pollution Municipal Water Supply Groundwater Reservoir Recharge Rainfall Evaporation 74% 5% 6% 3% 1% 2% 9% Water Requirements for Different Uses - INDIA Irrigation Domestic Industries Power Navigation Environment/Ecology Evaporation Source : Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation GW Pumping
  4. 4. Cr.#1 Cr.#2 Cr.#3 Cr.#4 Conveyance System Reservoir Inflow Rainfall Evaporation Soil Moisture Irrigated Area Evapotranspiration Cr : Crop A Typical Surface Water Irrigation System 29 November 2016India UK Water Centre
  5. 5. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre Grid Longitude Latitude 1 E75030’ N130 2 E75030’ N13030’ 3 E75030’ N140 4 E75030’ N14030’ 5 E75030’ N150 6 E760 N130 7 E760 N13030’ 8 E760 N140 9 E760 N14030’ 10 E760 N150 11 E76030’ N13030’ 12 E76030’ N140 13 E76030’ N14030’ 14 E76030’ N150 15 E770 N150  Forecasted Rainfall Data (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) • Grid 0.50 Latitude and 0.50 Longitude • Forecasts from 20 Ensemble Members based on 20 Perturbed Initial Conditions • The forecast length is 240 hours i.e., Day1 through Day10 at 1day interval Bhadra Reservoir Command Area
  6. 6. • The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF ) regularly provides forecasted rainfall data at 0.5 degree resolution • The NCMRWF Global Ensemble Forecast System (NGEFS) rainfall forecasts are available for the 20 ensemble members. • The forecasts from 20 ensemble members are obtained based on the 20 perturbed initial conditions. The forecast length is 240 hours i.e., Day1 through Day10 at 1day interval. RAINFALL FORECASTS INFLOW FORECASTS First order Non Stationary Markov Model
  7. 7. Figure 4.5: Comparison of variations in Forecasted Rainfall (mm) with Actual Rainfall (mm) for (a) Grid 1, (b) Grid 3, and (c) Grid 7 (Data from National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, 2013) 29 November 2016India UK Water Centre
  8. 8. Satellite Soil Moisture Data • ESA CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative) daily global merged soil moisture data with a spatial resolution of 0.250 • Fuzzy Gridded Soil Moisture Class Intervals of Crops 𝑴 = 𝒎 𝟏 𝟏 , 𝒎 𝟐 𝟏 , … 𝒎 𝑪 𝟏 , 𝒎 𝟏 𝟐 , 𝒎 𝟐 𝟐 … , 𝒎 𝑪 𝒏 𝒈 • Study Area (1 degree x 1 degree) consists of Three Grids 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  9. 9. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  10. 10. Crop Production Function –System performance measure –Response of the crop yield to water supply during intraseasonal periods. –A function of evapotranspiration deficits occurring during the growth stages of the crop.   NS 1s c max c a c scm ])sET/ET-1(ky-1[)(y/y Crop Season s=1 s=2 s=3 s=4 s=5 1. Establishment 2. Vegetative 3. Flowering 4. Yield Formation 5. Ripening 29 November 2016India UK Water Centre
  11. 11. 0 (1-d)(f - w) (f - w) 1.0 AET PET AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE AET-PET RELATION • Optimum crop growth occurs when AET = PET • Soil moisture may be depleted upto a certain level (governed by the soil moisture depletion factor, d), with AET still equal to PET.
  12. 12. Period t Period t+1 RAINt + IRAt ETa t m t n t+1 Dt Dt+1 DDPt Soil Moisture Balance 0 n t+1 Dt+1 = m t Dt + RAINt + IRAt - Eta t - DPt + 0 D 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre Increasing root depth from period to period
  13. 13. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  14. 14. Climate Change: Hydrologic Projections
  15. 15. Mahanadi river basin TIKARPAR A SANKARA SEORINARAY AN BASANTP UR PENDRARO AD BAIKUNTHP UR RAIPUR PHULBANI BURLA 820 840830 200 850 210 870860810 INDIA 190 HIRAKUD DAM R.S. DAM MAHANADI BASIN MAP 220 230 1 5 6 2 3 4 87 Downscaling locations Downscaling to daily precipitation at eight locations 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  16. 16. Mahanadi River Basin - Streamflow 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre Predictand: Monsoon Streamflow of Mahanadi River at Hirakud Dam Predictors 2m Surface Temperature Geopotential Height at 500 hP Specific Humidity Mean Sea Level Pressure Hirakud Dam River Mahanadi Chiplima power house Burla power house Inflow to Hirakud reservoir Irrigation release Bay of Bengal Power generation capacity: 347.5 MW, Firm power: 134 MW
  17. 17. Streamflow Projection : Downscaling Model validation Independent testing : Trained on 1959-1989 data, tested on 1990-2005 data Study area 15o N to 25oN, 80oE to 90oE Training data NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1959-2005 Monsoon monthly mean inflow data at Hirakud for years 1959-2005 Projection data GCMs: CGCM2, GISS, MIROC3.2 Scenarios : A1B, A2, B1 Large-scale predictors 2m surface air temperature, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), 500 hPa geopotential height and surface specific humidity 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  18. 18. 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre Projections for future monsoon inflows to Hirakud Reservoir Range of projected future flow duration curves at Hirakud Reduction in ‘normal’ (middle level) flows
  19. 19. 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre Projected Irrigation Water Demand : CGCM2; A2 ; Source : Asokan and Dutta (2009) Projected Peak and Average Discharge; CGCM2; A2; Source : Asokan and Dutta (2009) Flood Storage Live Storage Hydropower Irrigation Dam
  20. 20. Mean monthly hydropower 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan F eb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S ep Oct Nov Dec Month Meanpowergenerated(MW) C urrent S OP 1959-2005 MIR OC 3.2 B 1 with S OP MIR OC 3.2 B 1 with P olicy 1 MIR OC 3.2 B 1 with P olicy 2 MIR OC 3.2 B 1 with P olicy 3 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan F eb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S ep Oct Nov Dec Month Meanpowergenerated(MW) C urrent S OP 1959-2005 C GC M2 A1B with S OP C GC M2 A1B with P olicy 1 C GC M2 A1B with P olicy 2 C GC M2 A1B with P olicy 3 Adaptive policies for (a) MIROC3.2 B1 scenario and (b) CGCM2 A1B scenario for 2045-65 using SDP optimization showing recovery of mean monthly power generated. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  21. 21. Reservoir operation under adaptive policies R ule C urve at Hirakud for adaptive policies 178 180 182 184 186 188 190 192 194 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-S ep 2-OctDate Reservoirlevel(m) C urr rule curve min C urr rule curve max 2045-65 rule curve min 2045-65 rule curve max MIR OC 3.2 B 1 2045-65 P olicy 1 MIR OC 3.2 B 1 2045-65 P olicy 2 MIR OC 3.2 B 1 2045-65 P olicy 3 Reservoir operation under MIROC3.2 B1 scenario: Current and projected rule curve versus mean elevations obtained for adaptive policies. • Adaptive policies have a higher reservoir elevation in August than that permitted by the corresponding rule curves • Policy 2 and Policy 3 which progressively increase the weightage assigned to power reliability result in progressively higher elevations • Increased risk of flooding since higher elevations breach the flood control rule curve for 2045-65 scenerios 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre
  22. 22. URBAN FLOODS 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  23. 23. Flood mapping Flood management decision support system Flood characterization and management Flood hazard maps Public participation Sensors in pilot study area Communication systems Meteorological Forecasts Implementation on ground Hydro-meteorological Data in real time Hydrologic models and lab setup Climate change impacts Historical data analysis Adequacy analysis of storm water drains 0.25 0.5 1 3 6 12 24 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Duration (hours) Intensity(mm/hr) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Historical REA A1 BC1 BC1M BNU CAN C4 CMS CN5 CM60 FG2 FS2 GF2G GF2M HADC HADE IN4 IPCL IPCM MI5 MIEC MIE MPI MRI NEM Returnlevel(mm/hr) RCP 8.5 Scenario, 10 Y Return period 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Water Level Data for 10th November 2015 WaterlevelaboveDatum(m) Time(min) 123 6 12 18 24 36 48 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Duration Intensity(mm/hr) Non-stationary Stationary Laboratory setup 2D overland flow modelling LiDAR Survey Value addition Controlled Watershed BBMP http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~pradeep/index_files/Page353.htm Outreach 29 Novem ber 2016 India UKWater Centre
  24. 24. Bangalore BBMP (800 Sq KMs) 1 TRG at every 8sq km & TWS at every 100sq km Raingauage&Weathersensors 100- Telemetric Rain Gauges 8- Telemetric Weather stations
  25. 25. Near Real-time Rainfall Forecasts from SAC Ahmedabad  SAC uses WRF model - once the boundary conditions are set in WRF model ,  the weather parameters such as Wind speed, wind direction, Relative humidity, and temperature from KSNDMC from 8 Telemetric Weather sensors within BBMP area is pushed to WRF model through FTP.  At 12.30PM everyday, KSNDMC receives rainfall forecast for next 12hr, 24hr, 36hrs,48hr ,60hrs& 72 hrs,  Every day WRF model receives the actual weather parameters through FTP from KSNDMC and the forecast is updated for next 3 days. 29 November 2016India UK Water Centre
  26. 26. 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre Rain Forecast map Actual rainfall map 8:30 hrs of 20th July 2016 To 8:30hrs of 21st July 2016
  27. 27. Overall System Architecture for Flood Management System- Bangalore City Pilot implementation SCADA/HMI- Human Machine Interface Level/Flow Sensor with GSM/GPRS Modem Rain Sensor with GSM/GPRS Modem GSM/GPRS Network To the Hydraulic Model/Weather Model Server (SCADA/ HMI) Control Room for Centralized Data Acquisition Rain Sensor1 Rain Sensor2 Flow Sensor1 Level Sensor1 Level Sensor2 Flow Sensor2 Rain Sensor3 The total number of Rain, Level, Flow sensors are indicative only Bangalore City Zone Map 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre
  28. 28. 29 Novembe r 2016 India UK Water Centre Flood Forecasts
  29. 29. Concluding Remarks  Medium range weather forecasts are useful in updating irrigation schedules; especially useful in increasing water use efficiencies.  It is possible to derive adaptive policies for hydropower generation, flood control and irrigation water supply as a response to climate change.  Real-time rainfall forecasts are useful in integrated urban flood management 29 November 2016 India UK Water Centre

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