#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 179 الدكتور / علي المراكبي استشاري الهندسة الميكانيكية وخبير ترشيد الطاقة بعنوان "اقتصاديات إنتاج الكهرباء بالتكنولوجيات المختلفة" يوم الإثنين 24 أكتوبر 2022 الثامنة مساء توقيت القاهرة التاسعة مساء توقيت مكة المكرمة و الحضور عبر تطبيق زووم https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUoc-quqTorGtB0hRPR6oljN7DKOanGdx1f علما ان هناك بث مباشر للمحاضرة على القنوات الخاصة بجمعية المهندسين المصريين ونأمل أن نوفق في تقديم ما ينفع المهندس ومهمة الهندسة في عالمنا العربي والله الموفق للتواصل مع إدارة المبادرة عبر قناة التليجرام https://t.me/EEAKSA ومتابعة المبادرة والبث المباشر عبر نوافذنا المختلفة رابط اللينكدان والمكتبة الالكترونية https://www.linkedin.com/company/eeaksa-egyptian-engineers-association/ رابط قناة التويتر https://twitter.com/eeaksa رابط قناة الفيسبوك https://www.facebook.com/EEAKSA رابط قناة اليوتيوب https://www.youtube.com/user/EEAchannal رابط التسجيل العام للمحاضرات https://forms.gle/vVmw7L187tiATRPw9 ملحوظة : توجد شهادات حضور مجانية لمن يسجل فى رابط التقيم اخر المحاضرة.

2. ‫المختل‬ ‫بالتكنولوجيات‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫اقتصاديات‬
‫فة‬
‫مهندس‬ ‫دكتور‬
/
‫المراكبي‬ ‫علي‬

3. ‫حالة‬ ‫دراسة‬
‫المختلفة‬ ‫بالتكنولوجيات‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫من‬ ‫الوحدة‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬

4. ‫ضرورة‬ ‫اصبح‬ ‫المنفصلة‬ ‫الشبكات‬ ‫مع‬ ‫المتجددة‬ ‫و‬ ‫الجديدة‬ ‫الطاقة‬
‫الطاقة‬ ‫على‬ ‫المتنامي‬ ‫الطلب‬ ‫لتغطية‬

5. ‫باستخدام‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫تكنولوجيا‬ ‫مبسط‬ ‫مخطط‬
‫الغازية‬ ‫التوربينات‬

6. ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫الحالة‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫من‬ ‫الهدف‬
‫بالسنت‬ ‫المختلفة‬ ‫بالتكنولوجيات‬
/
‫ساع‬ ‫كيلوات‬
‫ة‬
• The objective of the present
work is to build a simple
mathematical model by series
of discipline procedures to
calculate the total cost of
power Station unit step output
in Cent/KWh during Power
Station all life time .

7. ‫للحساب‬ ‫رياضي‬ ‫نموذج‬ ‫وضع‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫الحساب‬ ‫منهجية‬
To build the required model the theses contains the following
knowledge:-
1-state of power plant around the world including
Technology –Economic – Fuel Mix –
2-Power market conditions for last few years
3-Power stations indicators such technical , economical and
environmental considerations
4-Studies that reviews the power plant long run marginal cost

8. • 5- Studying power stations Performance and efficiencies
• 6- predicting the important factors and indicators That governing the
performance and economics of power stations under investigation.
• 7- Designing the cost element calculations and procedures Algorism
• 8-Sugested mathematical models for calculating the long run marginal cost
• 9- Applying the predictive model numerically as a case study for the power
stations different technologies up to date
• 10- Checking the model with numerical case studies .
‫الحساب‬ ‫منهجية‬ ‫تابع‬

9. ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫من‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫بدائل‬ ‫تحديد‬
S/N
Power Plant
Technology Option
Rated Capacity
MW
Nomenclature
1 Natural Gas
Steam Turbine
300
600
NG300
NG600
2 Heavy Fuel Oil Steam
Turbine
300
600
HFO300
HFO600
3 Coal
Steam Turbine
300
600
Coal300
Coal600
4 Natural Gas Turbine
Open Cycle 250 NGT250
5 Light Oil Gas Turbine
Open Cycle 250 LOGT250
6 Natural Gas Turbine
Combined Cycle 750 NGCCGT750
7 Light Oil Combined
Cycle Gas Turbine 750 LOCCGT750
8 Diesel Engine Light Oil 10 Diesel10
9 Wind Power 100 Wind100
10 Solar Thermal 150 Solarthermal150
11 Photovoltaic PV Arrays 10 Pv10
12 Large Hydro Power 1000 LHYDRO1000
13 Small Hydro Power 10 SHYDRO10
14 Nuclear Power 1000 Nuclear 1000

10. ‫خطوات‬ ‫لتخطيط‬ ‫خريطة‬ ‫وضع‬
‫المعامالت‬ ‫بمنطقية‬ ‫الحساب‬
‫المقارنة‬ ‫في‬ ‫المستخدمة‬

11. ‫ساعة‬ ‫كيلوات‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫بالسنت‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫فكرة‬
• The following cost elements are important to build the
expected model which is important for prediction of the
total cost of unit electricity production in Cent/KWh:-
• 1-The investment cost Cinv .
• 2-The fuel cost Cf .
• 3-The operation & maintenance cost Co&m
• The long run marginal cost LRMC or the total cost Ct is equal
to the summation of the three cost elements in Cent/KWh
during the plant life time divided by Summation of the plant
all electricity productions during the same life time .By this
way proposed model is solved to compare between more
than 17’s power plant technology option

12. The Investment Cost Calculations
‫خال‬ ‫سنويا‬ ‫توزيعها‬ ‫و‬ ‫االصول‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫او‬ ‫االستثمارية‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫حسب‬
‫ل‬
‫للمشروع‬ ‫االفتراضي‬ ‫العمر‬
•
Cinv=Cinvp (1+r)n (1)
where r is the interest rate and n the number of years of plant operation”
Cinv: investment cost after n year of life time operation Cent
Cinvp: The investment cost at present time Cent
Investment cost per unit of electricity generated after n year
of operation, Cinv so,
Cinv=∑t=1
t=n Cinv/Eo Cent/KWh (2)
Eo, The electricity generation for one year of operation in KWh
Cinv=∑t=1
t=n Cinvp (1+r)n / Et Cent/KWh (3)
Eo = 8640 . Uf . Pins MWH/yr (4)
Where Uf: utilization factorAssume according to the type of power plant , Pins :The
installed Capacity in MW chosen according to the flow chart in Fig (2)
Et = =∑t=1
t=n Eot MWH (5)

13. The fuel cost Cf
‫سنويا‬ ‫وتوزيعها‬ ‫الوقود‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬
‫االفتراضي‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫خالل‬
‫للمشروع‬
• It is important to know that the idea of the fuel cost is directly proportional to the unit efficiency
which depreciated year by year , second factor is the fuel price which increases year by year also so
modeling of fuel cost could be represented as follows :-
Cft =∑t=1
t=n mfit . pfi/ηt . Eot (6)
ηn= ηo (1+Δη)n (7)
Cft = ∑t=1
t=n mfi . pfi(1+r)n/ (ηo(1+Δη)n . Eot) Cent/KWh (8)

14. The operation & maintenance cost Co&m
‫االفتراضي‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫مدة‬ ‫خالل‬ ‫سنويا‬ ‫توزيعها‬ ‫و‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫و‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫تكلفة‬
• The operation & maintenance cost increases year by year due to
the increasing of the interest rate comparing with the initial case.
Same idea if one divide the operation and maintenance cost by the
total electricity production during the plant life time this will give
the cost of operation and maintenance cost Cent/kwh
•
This is the third term of our proposed model:
• Co&m =∑t=1
t=n Co&m Pt . (1+r)n/ Eo t Cent/KWh ( 9)
• Where Co&m the total operation and maintenance cost including
the interest rate till the life time operation year divided by the all
electricity output till the n years of life time . The term Co&m Pt,
represents the operation & maintenance cost Cent/kwh at present
time for the first year of operation, r represents the interest rate Eot
the first year electricity output in kWh .

15. The Total cost or Long run marginal cost Ctn (LRMC)
‫بالسنت‬ ‫العناصر‬ ‫جميع‬ ‫شاملة‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬
/
‫ك‬
.
‫و‬
.
‫س‬
Finally if look to the above three cost elements the prediction of one equation could be
presented to get the required model as follows:-
Ctn = Cinv + Cf + Co&m (10)
Ctn =∑t=1
t=n Cinvp(1+r)n /Et +∑t=1
t=n mfi*pf i(1+r)n/ (ηo(1+Δη)n Et)
+∑t=1
t=n Co&mPt (1+r)n/ Eot
Ctn = ∑t=1
t=n (Cinvp + mfi*pfi/ (ηo(1+Δη)n + Co&mPt ) (1+r)n (11)
∑t=1
t=n Eot (1+r)n
Equation (11) [1] is considered as a proposal required model,

16. Important Assumptions & Calculations
‫دقيقة‬ ‫نتيجة‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫هامة‬ ‫فروض‬
N
Technology
option
Ui
%
Eff
%
Lt
n year
Pins
MW
Eo
Mwh/Y
Eot
Mwh
Cinv
C/kwh
Cf
C/kwh
Co&m Ct
1 NG300 75 40 40 300 1944000 77760000 3.31 5 0.4 8.7
2 NG600 80 40 40 600 4147200 77760000 3.11 5.32 0.37 8.8
3 HFO300 75 40 35 300 1944000 165888000 2.97 6.27 0.46 9.7
4 HFO600 80 40 35 600 4147200 68040000 2.78 6.66 0.43 9.9
5 COAL 300 75 40 30 300 1944000 145152000 2.78 1.63 0.64 5.1
6 COAL 600 80 40 30 600 4147200 58320000 2.61 1.73 0.6 4.9
7 NGGT250 60 30 20 250 1296000 124416000 1.79 8.45 3.56 13.8
8 LOGT250 60 30 20 250 1296000 25920000 1.79 9.47 3.56 14.8
9 LOCCGT750 75 55 30 750 4860000 25920000 2.07 3.3 1.39 6.8
10 NGCCGT750 75 55 30 750 4860000 145800000 2.07 3.7 1.39 7.2
11 LHYDR1000 60 90 40 1000 5184000 207360000 6.79 0 0.51 7.3
12 SHYDRO 10 60 80 20 10 51840 1036800 15.35 0 2.97 18.3
13 WIND 100 50 60 20 100 432000 8640000 4.3 0 1.66 6
14 NUC 1000 85 30 60 1000 7344000 440640000 2.7 3.5 0.8 7
15 SOLAR THE150 50 25 20 150 648000 12960000 9.52 2.5 5.34 17.4
16 SOLAR PV 10 50 20 20 10 43200 864000 2.9 0 4.16 7.1
17 Diesel 10 75 35 25 10 64800 1620000 0.335 1.77 0.43 2.6
Average 69 44 30 411 2609026 97419812 3.95 3.49 1.69 9.1

17. Some Important Assumptions & Calculations
‫االكسيل‬ ‫شيتات‬ ‫بواسطة‬ ‫للحسابات‬ ‫برنامج‬ ‫تصميم‬

18. Prediction of Electricity Generation During Station Life Time in TWh
TWh Tirra Watt Hour at all plant life time 1TWH=1012 KWh
‫للبدائل‬ ‫االقتصادية‬ ‫المقارنات‬ ‫ضمن‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫االجمالي‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫دراسات‬

19. Investment Cost MUS$/MW
1-CL Cost of Land and foundation-2-Cc Cost of consultant services-3- CTG Cost of Turbo Generator or Engine-4-CSY Cost of
Switchyard –5-CSW Cost of Switching and Wiring 6-Cp Cost of piping 7-CFH cost of fuel handling 8-CB Cost of Boiler
9 –CR Cost of reactor10-CDAM Cost of Dam
‫االستثمارية‬ ‫للتكلفة‬ ‫الحساب‬ ‫كاساس‬ ‫المحطات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مختلفة‬ ‫النواع‬ ‫االستثمارية‬ ‫التكاليف‬ ‫عناصر‬

20. Fuel Consumption Growth Rate for Thermal Power Plant under Evaluation
‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫تكنولوجيات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مختلفة‬ ‫النواع‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫الوقود‬ ‫استهالك‬

21. Fuel Price Growth Rate for Thermal Power Plant
Under Investigations ‫االنتاجية‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫تشغيل‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫خالل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫الوقود‬ ‫اسعار‬

22. ‫سنويا‬ ‫االنتاجية‬ ‫للوحدات‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫الوقود‬ ‫استهالك‬ ‫تكاليف‬
‫امريكي‬ ‫دوالر‬ ‫بالمليون‬

23. Cost of Fuel for Thermal Power Plant in MUS$/MWh

24. Schematic Diagram for Nuclear Power Plant NPSPWR
‫االنتاج‬ ‫بدائل‬ ‫خطط‬ ‫ضمن‬ ‫النووية‬ ‫المفاعالت‬ ‫بتكنولوجيا‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫النتاج‬ ‫تخطيطي‬

25. World Electricity Based On Fuel Mix
‫التقليدية‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫و‬ ‫الخضراء‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫العالم‬ ‫مستوي‬ ‫على‬ ‫الوقود‬ ‫خلطة‬
10146, 38%
Oil
801, 3%
6141, 23%
5073, 19%
2670, 10%
934.5, 3.5 %
934.5, 3.5 %
World Electricity Production By Source TWh
year 2019
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclea
Wind
Other Renewable
Total 26700 TWh

26. Total Cost Cent/kWh for Electricity Generated By different Types of
Technology 17’s technology options ‫سنت‬ ‫الحساب‬ ‫نتائج‬
/
‫ك‬
.
‫و‬
.
‫س‬
Cinv : investment cost Cent/KWh Cf : fuel cost Cent/KWh
Co&m : operation & maintenance cost Cent/KWh
Ct : Plant total cost Cent/KWh

27. Tabulated Resuts ‫النتائج‬ ‫جدولة‬
Power plant Cost
Cent/kwh
Power Plant Total Cost
Cent/kwh
Power Plant Total Cost
Cent/kwh
Diesel10MW 2.6 Coal 600MW 4.9 Coal 300MW 5.1
Wind100MW 6 LOCCGT750M
W
6.8 Nuclear1000MW 7
PV10MW 7.1 NGCCGT750 7.2 LHYDRO1000 7.3
NG300MW 8.8 HFO300MW 9.7 HFO600 9.9
NGGT250MW 13.8 LOGT250MW 14.8 SOLARTHERM
50MW
17.4
Small hyd10MW 18.3

28. Total and Cost Elements for Power Stations under Evaluation ‫خريطة‬
‫سنت‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫تكنولوجيا‬ ‫مقارنات‬ ‫لتوضيح‬
/
‫ك‬
.
‫و‬
.
‫س‬
Cinv : investment cost Cent/KWh Cf : fuel cost Cent/KWh
Co&m : operation & maintenance cost Cent/KWh
Ct : Plant total cost Cent/KWh

29. Total Cost Cent/KWh for Power Plants under Evaluation
‫سنت‬ ‫المنتجة‬ ‫للوحدة‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫التكلفة‬
/
‫ك‬
.
‫و‬
.
‫س‬

30. The Total Average Cost and Elements for 17’s Power Plant
Technology Options under Investigation Cent/KWh (%) ‫التكلفة‬ ‫عناصر‬ ‫لنسب‬ ‫نتائج‬

31. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Diesel10
Coal600
Coal300
Wind100
LOCCGT750
NUCLEAR1000
Solarpv10
NGCCGT750
LHYDRO1000
NG300
NG600
HFO300
HFO600
NGGT250
LOGT250
SOLAR
THERMAL150
SHDRO10
Average
Total cost
cent/kWh
Power plant technology option
Marakby
USA
Germany
Australia
Final Result Validation Cost Modeling of Power Plant
‫عالمية‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫بوحدات‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫مقارنة‬ [45][60][61][Appendix D]

32. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Marakby Buy PV 20-5-MW
buy PV 0.5-20MW WIND 2500HR
Cent/KWh
Validation of Result Between Marakby LRMC and The Buying Electricity
‫اخري‬ ‫بدراسات‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫مقارنة‬ from Wind and PV Private Sector Projects Cent/KWh

33. ‫االنت‬ ‫تكنولوجية‬ ‫واختيار‬ ‫النهائي‬ ‫االستنتاج‬
‫اج‬
Conclusion
The final conclusion of the present work is to stress & highly recommended support the
techno economic studies before construct a new power plant. The decision maker
should consider with the total cost during the life cycle of that power plant before
construction. The decision maker should be taken into consideration the all
parameters that governing the long run marginal cost such as life time , utilization
factor ,plant efficiency , fuel price , fuel availability , output electricity , interest rate
, depreciation rate .. And so on.
The calculation procedures of the total cost should be contained the investment cost, the
fuel cost, operation & maintenance cost.
The proposed model supply vision for the decision maker when construct a new power
plant.
The decision to transform A certain power station into scrap need highly
recommendation to implement the techniques of unit step output power calculations
and studies .

34. Some Important Recommendation ‫االفضل‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫طرق‬ ‫الختيار‬ ‫هامة‬ ‫توصيات‬
1
-
.
2
-
3
. -
4
. -
5
-
.
6
-
7
. -
8
-
9
-
10
-
11
-
.

36. Thank You So Much

37. ‫المختل‬ ‫بالتكنولوجيات‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫اقتصاديات‬
‫فة‬
‫مهندس‬ ‫دكتور‬
/
‫المراكبي‬ ‫علي‬